Search results for: anchoring bias

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Edvard P. G. Bruun

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One of the best ways of improving our understanding of reinforced concrete is through large-scale experimental testing. The gathered information is critical in making inferences about structural mechanics and deriving the mathematical models that are the basis for finite element analysis programs and design codes. An effective way of measuring the strains across a region of a specimen is by using a system of surface mounted Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDTs). While a single LVDT can only measure the linear strain in one direction, by combining several measurements at known angles a Mohr’s circle of strain can be derived for the whole region under investigation. This paper presents a method that can be used by researchers, which improves the accuracy and removes experimental bias in the calculation of the Mohr’s circle, using four rather than three independent strain measurements. Obtaining high quality strain data is essential, since knowing the angular deviation (shear strain) and the angle of principal strain in the region are important properties in characterizing the governing structural mechanics. For example, the Modified Compression Field Theory (MCFT) developed at the University of Toronto, is a rotating crack model that requires knowing the direction of the principal stress and strain, and then calculates the average secant stiffness in this direction. But since LVDTs can only measure average strains across a plane (i.e., between discrete points), localized cracking and spalling that typically occur in reinforced concrete, can lead to unrealistic results. To build in redundancy and improve the quality of the data gathered, the typical experimental setup for a large-scale shell specimen has four independent directions (X, Y, H, and V) that are instrumented. The question now becomes, which three should be used? The most common approach is to simply discard one of the measurements. The problem is that this can produce drastically different answers, depending on the three strain values that are chosen. To overcome this experimental bias, and to avoid simply discarding valuable data, a more rigorous approach would be to somehow make use of all four measurements. This paper presents the derivation of a method to draw what is effectively a Mohr’s circle of 'best-fit', which optimizes the circle by using all four independent strain values. The four-strain optimized Mohr’s circle approach has been utilized to process data from recent large-scale shell tests at the University of Toronto (Ruggiero, Proestos, and Bruun), where analysis of the test data has shown that the traditional three-strain method can lead to widely different results. This paper presents the derivation of the method and shows its application in the context of two reinforced concrete shells tested in pure torsion. In general, the constitutive models and relationships that characterize reinforced concrete are only as good as the experimental data that is gathered – ensuring that a rigorous and unbiased approach exists for calculating the Mohr’s circle of strain during an experiment, is of utmost importance to the structural research community.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, shell tests, Mohr’s circle, experimental research

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Tahereh Samenian

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There is ample evidence that source and goal are disproportionately expressed in languages, and goal usually plays a more prominent role than source. The results show that the mismatch between the goal and the source is not entirely rooted in non-linguistic behaviors, i.e. that linguistic descriptions also show the focus of the goal on the source in events; Non-verbal memory for events, on the other hand, indicates that the focus of the goal is only on events that are purposefully moving and the actor is alive. In the present study, an attempt is made to examine the principle of priority of the goal over the source by focusing on Persian directional motion verbs. For this purpose, 117 Persian directional motion verbs have been selected from the dictionary and data for them have been collected from the body of Bijan Khan and the components of goal and source have been identified in sentences and the prominence of the components of goal and source has been shown in the form of diagrams. As it was obtained from the data, Persian motion-directional verbs also showed the bias of the goal over source in motion events.

Keywords: motion-directional verbs, priority of goal over source principle, cognitive factors, linguistic factors

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Authors: Liqiang Chen

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This study investigates the effects of political connections on the association between firms’ business strategy and their tax aggressiveness in an emerging economy such as China. By studying all public Chinese firms in the period from 2011 to 2017, we find that firms adopting innovative business strategy are more tax aggressive overall, but innovative firms with political connections are less tax aggressive compared to those without political connections. Moreover, we document several channels through which political connections affect the association between innovative business strategy and tax aggressiveness. In particular, we show that the mitigation effect of political connections on tax aggressiveness is stronger for innovative firms located in areas with a lower marketization index and for innovative firms with a lower leverage level or with less earnings management. Our results are robust to an instrumental variable approach to account for possible endogenous bias. Our study contributes to the understanding of firms’ tax behaviors in an emerging economy setting and suggests that there are costs associated with political connections, such as foregone tax saving opportunities, which are understudied in the prior literature.

Keywords: tax aggressiveness, business strategy, political connections, emerging economy

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Authors: Cunyu Zhang

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Through literature review about studies related to tense, it is found that there exist disagreements on the definition and existence of Chinese tense. Influenced by some researches on English language which regard tense as a grammatical category based on the verbal inflections of English, some Chinese researchers claim that there is no tense in Chinese language as there are no verbal inflections involved. Meanwhile, other Chinese researchers hold that Chinese still has tense although its verbs are non-inflectional based on the fact that Chinese lexical expressions can imply temporal meaning. We assume that the reasons for the above disagreements in terms of Chinese tense lie in the fact that all the previous studies prefer to view language “from the below” which means expressions of tense are the core part of these studies. However, there are about 6,000 languages with distinct expressions all over the world. Hence, if the language studies only concentrate on expressions, it must become more difficult to understand the nature of language. By contrast, functions of languages are similar; otherwise, the human beings could not communicate with each other. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary for us to have a theoretical study on Chinese tense within the framework of SFL which holds that language is a system where meaning is the core part while form is just the realization of meaning. In addition, SFL is a general linguistic providing a universal framework for languages all over the world. Therefore, based on Systemic Functional Linguistics, the paper firstly redefines tense as a deictic semantic category for describing the speaker’s temporal location of processes and relevant temporal relations. With reference to this definition, this study explores the meaning system of tense. It is proposed that tense expresses four kinds of meaning, namely interpersonal, experiential, logical and textual meanings. From the interpersonal angle, tense helps to exchange temporal information between the speaker and the listener, and the temporal information refers to the anchoring of a concerned process in the past, present or future by the speaker. From the experiential angle, tense plays a role in the temporal locating of material, mental, relational, existential, behavioral and verbal processes by the speaker. From the logical angle, tense denotes the temporal relations at the two levels of clause and clause complex, and such relations fall into simultaneity, anteriority and posteriority. From the textual angle, tense refers to the temporal relations at the level of text, and the temporal relations in question concern linear serial relations and synchronous serial relations.

Keywords: Chinese, meaning system, Systemic Functional Linguistics, tense

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Authors: Gil Bae, Seung Uk Choi, Jae Eun Lee, Joon Hwa Rho

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Using proprietary engagement partner identity information for the Big 4 audit firms in Korea over the 2001-2011 period, we find that expert engagement partners obtain significantly higher total compensation than do non-expert partners. Importantly, we also find that expert partners increase the number of audit hours compared to their non-expert counterparts. The hourly billing rate, calculated as total fees divided by total audit hours, of expert partners is not higher than that of non-expert partners, indicating that there is no expert partner premium reflected in the hourly rate. This finding suggests that the increase in total audit fees is attributable mainly to the increase in the quantity of audit hours that expert partners work, not from the higher fee per hour. The results are not attributable to auditor selection bias.

Keywords: industry expert partners, expert premiums, audit hours, hourly charge rate

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Authors: Doyin Afolabi, Phillip Adewole, Oladipupo Sennaike

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Most well-known classifiers, including the decision tree algorithm, can make predictions on balanced datasets efficiently. However, the decision tree algorithm tends to be biased towards imbalanced datasets because of the skewness of the distribution of such datasets. To overcome this problem, this study proposes a weighted decision tree algorithm that aims to remove the bias toward the majority class and prevents the reduction of majority observations in imbalance datasets classification. The proposed weighted decision tree algorithm was tested on three imbalanced datasets- cancer dataset, german credit dataset, and banknote dataset. The specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed decision tree algorithm on the datasets. The evaluation results show that for some of the weights of our proposed decision tree, the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy metrics gave better results compared to that of the ID3 decision tree and decision tree induced with minority entropy for all three datasets.

Keywords: data mining, decision tree, classification, imbalance dataset

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Authors: Hong Fan, Lifang Gao, Feng Zhan

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This paper examines the influence of local gambling attitudes on a firm's long-term financial performance. Firms located in gambling-prone regions may be more willing to take risks, thus spending more on innovative projects. However, firms in such regions may also be likely to choose projects impulsively and allocate resources inefficiently. By studying Chinese publicly listed firms from 2010 to 2017, we find that firms in more gambling-prone regions invest more in R&D. Both local gambling attitudes and firms’ R&D spending are positively associated with firms’ long-term financial performance. More importantly, our study reveals that the positive impact of R&D spending on firms’ long-term financial performance is weakened by gambling-friendly attitudes, probably because firms in gambling-prone regions are more likely to overinvest in risky projects. This effect is stronger for larger firms, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), firms with more government subsidies, and firms with weaker internal control.

Keywords: regional gambling attitudes, long-term financial performance, R&D, risk, local bias

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Authors: Maha Wiss, Wael Khreich

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Animals, objects, foods, plants, and other non-human terms are commonly used as a source of metaphors to describe females in formal and slang language. Comparing women to non-human items not only reflects cultural views that might conceptualize women as subordinates or in a lower position than humans, yet it conveys this degradation to the listeners. Moreover, the dehumanizing representation of females in the language normalizes the derogation and even encourages sexism and aggressiveness against women. Although dehumanization has been a popular research topic for decades, according to our knowledge, no studies have linked women's dehumanizing language to the machine learning field. Therefore, we introduce our research work as one of the first attempts to create a tool for the automated detection of the dehumanizing depiction of females in English texts. We also present the first labeled dataset on the charted topic, which is used for training supervised machine learning algorithms to build an accurate classification model. The importance of this work is that it accomplishes the first step toward mitigating dehumanizing language against females.

Keywords: gender bias, machine learning, NLP, women dehumanization

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Authors: Breanna Wright, Peter Bragge

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Diagnostic error rates in healthcare are approximately 10% of cases. Diagnostic errors can cause patient harm due to inappropriate, inadequate or delayed treatment, and such errors contribute heavily to medical liability claims globally. Therefore, addressing diagnostic error is a high priority. In most cases, diagnostic errors are the result of faulty information synthesis rather than lack of knowledge. Specifically, the majority of diagnostic errors involve cognitive factors, and in particular, cognitive biases. Emergency Departments are an environment with heightened risk of diagnostic error due to time and resource pressures, a frequently chaotic environment, and patients arriving undifferentiated and with minimal context. This project aimed to develop a behavioural, evidence-informed intervention to reduce diagnostic error in Emergency Departments through co-design with emergency physicians, insurers, researchers, hospital managers, citizens and consumer representatives. The Forum Process was utilised to address this aim. This involves convening a small (4 – 6 member) expert panel to guide a focused literature and practice review; convening of a 10 – 12 person citizens panel to gather perspectives of laypeople, including those affected by misdiagnoses; and a 18 – 22 person structured stakeholder dialogue bringing together representatives of the aforementioned stakeholder groups. The process not only provides in-depth analysis of the problem and associated behaviours, but brings together expertise and insight to facilitate identification of a behaviour change intervention. Informed by the literature and practice review, the Citizens Panel focused on eliciting the values and concerns of those affected or potentially affected by diagnostic error. Citizens were comfortable with diagnostic uncertainty if doctors were honest with them. They also emphasised the importance of open communication between doctors and patients and their families. Citizens expect more consistent standards across the state and better access for both patients and their doctors to patient health information to avoid time-consuming re-taking of long patient histories and medication regimes when re-presenting at Emergency Departments and to reduce the risk of unintentional omissions. The structured Stakeholder Dialogue focused on identifying a feasible behavioural intervention to review diagnoses in Emergency Departments. This needed to consider the role of cognitive bias in medical decision-making; contextual factors (in Victoria, there is a legislated 4-hour maximum time between ED triage and discharge / hospital admission); resource availability; and the need to ensure the intervention could work in large metropolitan as well as small rural and regional ED settings across Victoria. The identified behavioural intervention will be piloted in approximately ten hospital EDs across Victoria, Australia. This presentation will detail the findings of all review and consultation activities, describe the behavioural intervention developed and present results of the pilot trial.

Keywords: behavioural intervention, cognitive bias, decision-making, diagnostic error

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Authors: Giulio Rosati, Luciano Sappia, Rossana Madrid, Noemi Rozlòsnik

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The addition of PEG of different molecular weights has important effects on the physical, electrical and electrochemical properties of iron(III)-tosylate doped PEDOT. This particular polymer can be easily spin coated over plastic discs, optimizing thickness and uniformity of the PEDOT-PEG films. The conductivity and morphological analysis of the hybrid PEDOT-PEG polymer by 4-point probe (4PP), 12-point probe (12PP), and conductive AFM (C-AFM) show strong effects of the PEG doping. Moreover, the conductive films kinetics at the nanoscale, in response to different bias voltages, change radically depending on the PEG molecular weight. The hybrid conductive films show also interesting electrochemical properties, making the PEDOT PEG doping appealing for biosensing applications both for EIS-based and amperometric affinity/catalytic biosensors.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, biosensors, four-point probe, nano-films, PEDOT

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Authors: Muhammad Umair, Syed Qasim Gilani

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A technique using Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for blind receiver signal processing is investigated. The problem of the receiver signal processing is viewed as of signal equalization and implementation imperfections compensation. Based on this, a model similar to a general ICA problem is developed for the received signal. Then, the use of ICA technique for blind signal equalization in the time domain is presented. The equalization is regarded as a signal separation problem, since the desired signal is separated from interference terms. This problem is addressed in the paper by over-sampling of the received signal. By using ICA for equalization, besides channel equalization, other transmission imperfections such as Direct current (DC) bias offset, carrier phase and In phase Quadrature phase imbalance will also be corrected. Simulation results for a system using 16-Quadraure Amplitude Modulation(QAM) are presented to show the performance of the proposed scheme.

Keywords: blind equalization, blind signal separation, equalization, independent component analysis, transmission impairments, QAM receiver

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Authors: Rachel Nir, Tina Mckee

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In the UK, reliance has been placed on the professions to ‘heal themselves’ in improving equality and diversity. This approach has faltered, in part due to the global economic climate, and stimulus is needed to make faster equality progress. Recent empirical evidence has identified specific diversity barriers, namely: the cost of training; the use of high school grades as a primary selection criteria; the significance of prior work experience in recruitment decisions; and recruitment from elite universities. Students from majority groups and affluent backgrounds are advantaged over their counterparts. We as educators are passionate about resisting this. We believe that education can be a key agent of change. As part of this belief, the presenters have recently designed learning and teaching materials for the 2015/16 academic year. These are aimed at undergraduate law students for the purpose of 1) educating them on career barriers; 2) helping them to develop personal strategies to overcome them; and 3) encouraging them to address their own biases, both conscious and implicit, so that they, themselves, may be fairer employers and managers in the future.

Keywords: career barriers, challenging professional bias, education, elitism, personal student strategies

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Authors: Valerie Habbel, Magdalena Orth, Johanna Richter, Steffen Schimko

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Cooperation between development actors and the private sector is becoming increasingly important, as it is expected to mobilize additional resources to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), among other things. However, whether the goals of cooperation are achieved has so far only been explored in evaluations and studies of individual projects and instruments. The evaluation synthesis attempts to close this gap by systematically analyzing existing evidence (evaluations and academic studies) from national and international development cooperation on private sector engagement. Overall, the evaluations and studies considered report mainly positive effects on investors and donors, intermediaries, partner countries, and target groups. However, various analyses, including on the quality of the evaluations, point to a positive bias in the results. The evaluation synthesis makes recommendations on the definition of indicators, the measurement and evaluation of impacts and additionality, knowledge management, and the consideration of transaction costs in cooperation with private actors.

Keywords: evaluation synthesis, private sector engagement, international development, sustainable development

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Authors: Nga Yui Tong

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Mandarin, the official language of China, is based on the Beijing dialect and is spoken by more than one billion people from all over the world. To investigate the trends of Mandarin acquisition, 192 preschoolers are recruited by stratified random sampling. They are from 4 different districts in Beijing, 2 schools in each district, with 4 age groups, both genders, and 3 children in each stratum. The children are paired up to conduct semi-structured free play for 30 minutes. Their language output is videotaped, transcribed, and coded for the calculation of Mean Length of Utterance (MLU). Two-way ANOVA showed that the variation of MLU is significantly contributed by age, which is coherent to previous findings of other languages. This first large-scale study to investigate the developmental trend of Mandarin in young children in Beijing provides empirical evidence to the development of standards and curriculum planning for early Mandarin education. Interestingly, the gender effect in the study is insignificant, with boys showing a slightly higher MLU than girls across all age groups and settings, except the 4.5 years same-gender dyads. The societal factors in the Chinese context on parenting and gender bias are worth looking into.

Keywords: Beijing, language development, Mandarin, preschoolers

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Authors: Anjana Sreedharan, Harish Rao

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Background: India has the world’s third largest population of people living with HIV/AIDS, with a prevalence rate of 0.69 in the state of Karnataka. This study aims at assessing the HIV/AIDS related knowledge, attitude and behavior of the medical personnel in 3 hospitals in the city of Mangalore. Methods: Surgeons, Anesthetists, OT staff nurses, ward nursing staff, House surgeons working in the hospitals associated with Kasturba Medical college, Mangalore were given questionnaires and interviewed. Their knowledge about HIV, their attitude towards HIV positive patients and bias in management of the patients was assessed. Conclusion: So far, it has been found that amongst doctors, discrimination was mainly in the form of HIV testing without consent and a lack of confidentiality. However, the doctors rarely changed the treatment plan on knowing the HIV status of the patient. Amongst the nursing staff and interns, there is a serious lacuna of knowledge regarding HIV transmission, as compared to consultants. The patient seldom faced verbal abuse from the team. Use of universal precautions is less among the entire team due to insufficient availability of the same.

Keywords: discrimination, HIV/ AIDS, medical colleges, stigma

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Authors: Lenka Mynaříková, Hedvika Boukalová

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The study looks at the ability to detect nonverbal deception among police officers and management students in the Czech Republic. Respondents from police departments (n=197) and university students of human resources (n=161) completed a deception detection task and evaluated veracity of the statements of suspects in 21 video clips from real crime investigations. Their evaluations were based on nonverbal behavior. Voices in the video clips were modified so that words were not recognizable, yet paraverbal voice characteristics were preserved. Results suggest that respondents have a tendency to lie bias based on their profession. In the evaluation of video clips, stereotypes also played a significant role. The statements of suspects of a different ethnicity, younger age or specific visual features were considered deceitful more often. Research might be beneficial for training in professions that are in need of deception detection techniques.

Keywords: deception detection, police officers, human resources, forensic psychology, forensic studies, organizational psychology

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Authors: Tao Lin, Shanghong Zhao, Yufu Yin, Zihang Zhu, Wei Jiang, Xuan Li, Qiurong Zheng

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A simple operated, stable and compact multi-band frequency conversion and multi-phase shift is proposed to satisfy the demands of multi-band communication and radar phase array system. The dual polarization quadrature phase shift keying (DP-QPSK) modulator is employed to support the LO sideband and the optical frequency comb simultaneously. Meanwhile, the fiber is also used to introduce different phase shifts to different sidebands. The simulation result shows that by controlling the DC bias voltages and a C band microwave signal with frequency of 4.5 GHz can be simultaneously converted into other signals that cover from C band to K band with multiple phases. It also verifies that the multi-band and multi-phase frequency conversion system can be stably performed based on current manufacturing art and can well cope with the DC drifting. It should be noted that the phase shift of the converted signal also partly depends of the length of the optical fiber.

Keywords: microwave photonics, multi-band frequency conversion, multi-phase shift, conversion efficiency

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Authors: Armineh Nourbakhsh, Sameena Shah, Carolyn Rose

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Layout-aware language models have been used to create multimodal representations for documents that are in image form, achieving relatively high accuracy in document understanding tasks. However, the large number of parameters in the resulting models makes building and using them prohibitive without access to high-performing processing units with large memory capacity. We propose an alternative approach that can create efficient representations without the need for a neural visual backbone. This leads to an 80% reduction in the number of parameters compared to the smallest SOTA model, widely expanding applicability. In addition, our layout embeddings are pre-trained on spatial and visual cues alone and only fused with text embeddings in downstream tasks, which can facilitate applicability to low-resource of multi-lingual domains. Despite using 2.5% of training data, we show competitive performance on two form understanding tasks: semantic labeling and link prediction.

Keywords: layout understanding, form understanding, multimodal document understanding, bias-augmented attention

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Authors: Farid Habibi Tanha, Mojtaba Jahanbazi, Morteza Foroutan, Rasidah Mohd Rashid

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This paper depicts the effects of asymmetric information in determining capital inflows to be captured through stock market microstructure. The model can explain several stylized facts regarding the capital immobility. The first phase of the research involves in collecting and refining 150,000,000 daily data of 11 stock markets over a period of one decade in an effort to minimize the impact of survivorship bias. Three micro techniques were used to measure information asymmetries. The final phase analyzes the model through panel data approach. As a unique contribution, this research will provide valuable information regarding negative effects of information asymmetries in stock markets on attracting foreign investments. The results of this study can be directly considered by policy makers to monitor and control changes of capital flow in order to keep market conditions in a healthy manner, by preventing and managing possible shocks to avoid sudden reversals and market failures.

Keywords: asymmetric information, capital inflow, market microstructure, investment

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Authors: Laboratory of Semiconducting, Metallic Materials (LMSM) Biskra Algeria

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InZnSnO2 (IZTO)/β-Ga2O3 Schottky solar barrier photodetector (PhD) exposed to 255 nm was simulated and compared to the measurement. Numerical simulations successfully reproduced the photocurrent at reverse bias and response by taking into account several factors, such as conduction mechanisms and material parameters. By adopting reducing the density of the trap as an improvement. The effect of reducing the bulk trap densities on the photocurrent, response, and time-dependent (continuous conductivity) was studied. As the trap density decreased, the photocurrent increased. The response was 0.04 A/W for the low Ga2O3 trap density. The estimated decay time for the lowest intensity ET (0.74, 1.04 eV) is 0.05 s and is shorter at ∼0.015 s for ET (0.55 eV). This indicates that the shallow traps had the dominant effect (ET = 0.55 eV) on the continuous photoconductivity phenomenon. Furthermore, with decreasing trap densities, this PhD can be considered as a self-powered solar-blind photodiode (SBPhD).

Keywords: IZTO/β-Ga2O3, self-powered solar-blind photodetector, numerical simulation, bulk traps

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Authors: Anudeep Appe, Bhanu Poluparthi, Lakshmi Kasivajjula, Udai Mv, Sobha Bagadi, Punya Modi, Aditya Singh, Hemanth Gunupudi, Spenser Troiano, Jeff Paul, Justin Stovall, Justin Yamamoto

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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data is considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP, to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since its data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for ex. quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: competition, DAGs, facility, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP

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Authors: Weisi Guo

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It is well established that there may be running correlations in sequential exam marks due to students sitting in the order of course registration patterns. As such, a random and non-sequential sampling of exam marks is a standard recommended practice. Here, the paper examines a large number of exam data stretching several years across different modules to see the degree to which it is true. Using the real mark distribution as a generative process, it was found that random simulated data had no more sequential randomness than the real data. That is to say, the running correlations that one often observes are statistically identical to chance. Digging deeper, it was found that some high running correlations have students that indeed share a common course history and make similar mistakes. However, at the statistical scale of a module question, the combined effect is statistically similar to the random shuffling of papers. As such, there may not be the need to take random samples for marks, but it still remains good practice to mark papers in a random sequence to reduce the repetitive marking bias and errors.

Keywords: data analysis, empirical study, exams, marking

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Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza

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Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality-WRF-Chem model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.

Keywords: ground-ozone, lima, sulphur dioxide, WRF-chem

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Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot

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The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labour and Social Welfare that was taken from the labour force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of six in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education and years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.

Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment

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Authors: Sabrina S. W. Chan, Emily Schwartzman, Nicholas O. Rule

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Past literature showed mixed findings on how smiling affects a person’s chance of getting hired. On one hand, smiling suggests enthusiasm, cooperativeness, and enthusiasm, which can elicit positive impressions. On the other hand, smiling can suggest weaker professionalism or a filler to hide nervousness, which can lower a candidate’s perceived competence. Emotion expressions can also be perceived differently depending on the person’s gender and can activate certain gender stereotypes. Women especially face a double bind with respect to hiring decisions and smiling. Because women are socially expected to smile more, those who do not smile will be considered stereotype incongruent. This becomes a noisy signal to employers and may lower their chance of being hired. However, women’s smiling as a formality may also be an obstacle. They are more likely to put on fake smiles; but if they do, they are also likely to be perceived as inauthentic and over-expressive. This paper sought to investigate how smiling affects hiring decisions, and whether this relationship is moderated by gender. In Study 1, participants were shown a series of smiling and emotionally neutral face images, incorporated into fabricated LinkedIn profiles. Participants were asked to rate how hireable they thought that candidate was. Results showed that participants rated smiling candidates as more hireable than nonsmiling candidates, and that there was no difference in gender. Moreover, individuals who did not study business were more biased in their perceptions than those who did. Since results showed a trending favoritism over female targets, in suspect of desirability bias, a second study was conducted to collect implicit measures behind the decision-making process. In Study 2, a mouse-tracking design was adopted to explore whether participants’ implicit attitudes were different from their explicit responses on hiring. Participants asked to respond whether they would offer an interview to a candidate. Findings from Study 1 was replicated in that smiling candidates received more offers than neutral-faced candidates. Results also showed that female candidates received significantly more offers than male candidates but was associated with higher attractiveness ratings. There were no significant findings in reaction time or change of decisions. However, stronger hesitation was detected for responses made towards neutral targets when participants perceived the given position as masculine, implying a conscious attempt of making situational judgments (e.g., considering candidate’s personality and job fit) to override automatic processing (evaluations based on attractiveness). Future studies would look at how these findings differ for positions which are stereotypically masculine (e.g., surgeons) and stereotypically feminine (e.g., kindergarten teachers). Current findings have strong implications for developing bias-free hiring policies in workplace, especially for organizations who maintain online/hybrid working arrangements in the post-pandemic era. This also bridges the literature gap between face perception and gender discrimination, highlighting how engendered facial cues can affect individual’s career development and organization’s success in diversity and inclusion.

Keywords: engendered facial cues, face perception, gender stereotypes, hiring decisions, smiling, workplace discrimination

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Authors: Kate Whitman, Zahra Murad, Joe Cox, Adam Cox

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This study investigates the influence of normative communications on digital piracy intentions. Although descriptive norms are thought to influence behavior, the study examines the potential bias in one's own behavior, leading to false consensus—a phenomenon perpetuating undesirable activities. The research tests the presence of false consensus and the effect of correcting normative predictions on changes in piracy intentions, examining gender differences. Results from a controlled experiment (N = 684) indicate that normative communications, reflecting the "real" norm based on government data (N=5000), increase (decrease) piracy intentions among men (women) underestimating their peers' behavior. Conversely, neither men nor women overestimating their peers' piracy show any notable change in intentions. Considering men consume more illegal content than women, suggesting they pose a higher risk, the study highlights the need for cautious use of normative communications. Therefore, policymakers should minimize the visibility of piracy behavior for effective digital piracy management.

Keywords: digital piracy, false consensus, normative interventions, persuasive messages

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Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats

Abstract:

An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.

Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining

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