Search results for: agent-based economic model

Authors: Virgo Sulakatko

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The reduction of energy consumption of the built environment has been one of the topics tackled by European Commission during the last decade. Increased energy efficiency requirements have increased the renovation rate of apartment buildings covered with External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS). Due to fast and optimized application process, a large extent of quality assurance is depending on the specific activities of artisans and are often not controlled. The on-site degradation factors (DF) have the technical influence to the façade and cause future costs to the owner. Besides the thermal conductivity, the building envelope needs to ensure the mechanical resistance and stability, fire-, noise-, corrosion and weather protection, and long-term durability. As the shortcomings of the construction phase become problematic after some years, the common value of the renovation is reduced. Previous work on the subject has identified and rated the relevance of DF to the technical requirements and developed a method to reveal the economic value of repair works. The future costs can be traded off to increased the quality assurance during the construction process. The proposed framework is describing the joint simulation of the technical importance and economic value of the on-site DFs of ETICS. The model is providing new knowledge to improve the resource allocation during the construction process by enabling to identify and diminish the most relevant degradation factors and increase economic value to the owner.

Keywords: ETICS, construction technology, construction management, life cycle costing

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

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This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: Amit Gill, Lalith Wijerathne, Sebastian Poledna

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This research presents the details of the implementation of high performance computing (HPC) extension of agent-based economic models (ABEMs) to simulate hundreds of millions of heterogeneous agents. ABEMs offer an alternative approach to study the economy as a dynamic system of interacting heterogeneous agents, and are gaining popularity as an alternative to standard economic models. Over the last decade, ABEMs have been increasingly applied to study various problems related to monetary policy, bank regulations, etc. When it comes to predicting the effects of local economic disruptions, like major disasters, changes in policies, exogenous shocks, etc., on the economy of the country or the region, it is pertinent to study how the disruptions cascade through every single economic entity affecting its decisions and interactions, and eventually affect the economic macro parameters. However, such simulations with hundreds of millions of agents are hindered by the lack of HPC enhanced ABEMs. In order to address this, a scalable Distributed Memory Parallel (DMP) implementation of ABEMs has been developed using message passing interface (MPI). A balanced distribution of computational load among MPI-processes (i.e. CPU cores) of computer clusters while taking all the interactions among agents into account is a major challenge for scalable DMP implementations. Economic agents interact on several random graphs, some of which are centralized (e.g. credit networks, etc.) whereas others are dense with random links (e.g. consumption markets, etc.). The agents are partitioned into mutually-exclusive subsets based on a representative employer-employee interaction graph, while the remaining graphs are made available at a minimum communication cost. To minimize the number of communications among MPI processes, real-life solutions like the introduction of recruitment agencies, sales outlets, local banks, and local branches of government in each MPI-process, are adopted. Efficient communication among MPI-processes is achieved by combining MPI derived data types with the new features of the latest MPI functions. Most of the communications are overlapped with computations, thereby significantly reducing the communication overhead. The current implementation is capable of simulating a small open economy. As an example, a single time step of a 1:1 scale model of Austria (i.e. about 9 million inhabitants and 600,000 businesses) can be simulated in 15 seconds. The implementation is further being enhanced to simulate 1:1 model of Euro-zone (i.e. 322 million agents).

Keywords: agent-based economic model, high performance computing, MPI-communication, MPI-process

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Authors: Dahiru Muhammad, Muhammad Danladi, Adamu Garba, Muhammad Yahaya

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This paper put forward the potentialities of biomass for energy as divers means of sustainable economic development. The paper explains in brief the ways or methods that are used to generate energy from biomass, such as combustion, pyrolysis, anaerobic, and gasification, and also how biomass for energy can enhance the sustainable economic development of a Nation. Currently, the nation depends on fossil fuels as a sources of generating its energy which is finite and deflectable with time, while on the other hand, biomass is an alternative and endless product which consists of a forest biomass, agricultural residues, and energy crops. Finally, recommendations and conclusion were made on the role of biomass for energy in improving sustainable economic development.

Keywords: biomass, energy, sustainable, economic, development

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Authors: Tingyu Zhang

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The horizontal ecological compensation (HEC) mechanism is the key to stimulating the active participation of the whole basin in ecological protection. In this paper, we construct an evolutionary model for HEC in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) basin with the introduction of the central government constraint and incentive mechanism (CGCIM) and explore the conditions for the realization of a (Protection and compensation) strategy that meets the social expectations. Further, the water quality-water quantity model is utilized to measure the HEC amount with the characteristic factual data of the YREB in 2020-2022. The results show that the stability of the evolutionary game model of upstream and downstream governments in the YREB is closely related to the CGCIM. If (Protection Compensation) is to be realized as the only evolutionary stable strategy of the evolutionary game system composed of upstream and downstream governments, it is necessary for the CGCIM to satisfy that the sum of the incentives for the protection side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than twice the input cost of the active strategy, and the sum of the incentives for the compensation side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than the amount of ecological compensation that needs to be paid by it when it adopts the active strategy. At this point, the total amount of HEC that the downstream government should give to the upstream government of the YREB is 2856.7 million yuan in 2020, 5782.1 million yuan in 2021, and 23166.7 million yuan in 2022. The results of the study can provide a reference for promoting the improvement and refinement of the HEC mechanism in the YREB.

Keywords: horizontal ecological compensation, Yangtze river economic belt, evolutionary game analysis, water quality and quantity model research on territorial ecological restoration in Mianzhu city, Sichuan, under the dual evaluation framework

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Fatemeh Fahimifar, Rouhollah Nazari, Seyed Mohammad Reza Hosseini

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Achieving an adaptable rate of economic growth has always been at the forefront of Iran development programs. In order to increase welfare level of the people in the society, all economic and social indices should be improved which is possible just in case of country's economic development and growth. While developing countries has realized the gap between developed countries and developing countries in today's world, a massive movement has been emerged in less developed countries to eliminate this economic gap. Hence this study investigates the effect of financial development, foreign direct investment and intellectual property on Iran's economic growth and taking into account other variables on economic growth such as impact of the share of foreign direct investment on GDP, government consumptive expenditure share of GDP has been paid. Period used in this study is related to the years 1974 to 2009. Also, in this research we have used Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to examine relationship between variables. The results of this study indicate a meaningful and negative impact of financial development, the share of government consumptive expenditure to GDP and similarly, the initial GDP on economic growth. Also, the degree of economy openness, foreign direct investment and intellectual property has a meaningful positive impact on economic growth.

Keywords: financial development, FDI, intellectual property, economic growth, Iran

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Authors: Muhamad Nugraha

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Economic growth always correlate positively with the magnitude of the unemployment rate. This is caused by labor which one of important variable to keep growth in the real sector of the region. Meanwhile, the economic structure in districts of Jember showed an increase of economic activity began to shift towards the industrial sector and some other economic sectors, so they have an affects to considerations for policy makers to increase economic growth in Jember as an autonomous region in East Java Province. At the fact, SMEs is among the factors driving economic growth in the region. This is shown by the high amount of SMEs. However, employment in the sector grew slightly slowed. It is caused by a lack of productivity in SMEs. Through the analysis of the transformation of economic structure theory, and the theory of Triple Helix using descriptive analytical method Location Quotient and Shift - Share, found that the results of the economic structure in Jember slowly shifting from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector, because it is dominated by trade sector, hotel and restaurant sector. In addition, SMEs is the potential sector of economic growth in Jember. While to maximizing role and functions of the institution's Research and Development Center of SMEs, there are three points to be known, that are Business Landscape, Business Architecture and Value Added.

Keywords: economic growth, SMEs, labor, Research and Development Center of SMEs

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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The proper policy handling might not able to attain the target since some of recessions, e.g., pandemic-led crises, the variables shocks of the economics. At the level of this situation, the Central bank implements the monetary policy to choose increase the exogenous expenditure and level of money supply consecutively for booster level economic growth, whether the monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in altering real output growth of a country or both stand for relatively effective in the direction of output growth of a country. The dispute with reference to the relationship between the monetary policy and fiscal policy is centered on the inflationary penalty of the shortfall financing by the fiscal authority. The latest variables socks of economics as well as the pandemic-led crises, central banks around the world predicted just about a general dilemma in relation to increase rates to face the or decrease rates to sustain the economic movement. Whether the prices hang about fundamentally unaffected, the aggregate demand has also been hold a significantly negative attitude by the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic. To empirically investigate the effects of economics shocks associated COVID-19 pandemic, the paper considers the effectiveness of the monetary policy and fiscal policy that linked to the adjustment mechanism of different economic variables. To examine the effects of economics shock associated COVID-19 pandemic towards the effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in the direction of output growth of a Country, this paper uses the Simultaneous equations model under the estimation of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method.

Keywords: IS-LM framework, pandemic. Economics variables shocks, simultaneous equations model, output growth

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

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The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

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Authors: Seyed Mohammadbagher Jafari, Elahe Mahdizadeh, Masomeh Ghahremani

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Nowadays almost all organizations depend on information systems to run their businesses. Investment on information systems and their maintenance to keep them always in best situation to support firm business is one of the main issues for every organization. The new concept of cloud computing was developed as a technical and economic model to address this issue. In cloud computing the computing resources, including networks, applications, hardwares and services are configured as needed and are available at the moment of request. However, migration to cloud is not an easy task and there are many issues that should be taken into account. This study tries to provide a comprehensive model to assess a firm readiness to implement cloud computing. By conducting a systematic literature review, four dimensions of readiness were extracted which include technological, human, organizational and environmental dimensions. Every dimension has various criteria that have been discussed in details. This model provides a framework for cloud computing readiness assessment. Organizations that intend to migrate to cloud can use this model as a tool to assess their firm readiness before making any decision on cloud implementation.

Keywords: cloud computing, human readiness, organizational readiness, readiness assessment model

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Authors: Fahad Javed, Tasneem Akhter, Maria Zafar, Adnan Shafique

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Evaluation and quantification of techniques is critical element of research and development of technology. Simulations and models play an important role in providing the tools for such assessments. When we look at technologies which impact or is dependent on an average Joe consumer then modeling the socio-economic and psychological aspects of the consumer also gain an importance. For feed in tariff for home consumers which is being deployed for average consumer may force many consumers to be adapters of the technology. Understanding how consumers will adapt this technologies thus hold as much significance as evaluating how the techniques would work in consumer agnostic scenarios. In this paper we first build the case for simulators which accommodate socio-economic realities of the consumers to evaluate smart grid technologies, provide a glossary of data that can aid in this effort and present an abstract model to capture and simulate consumers' adaptation and behavioral response to smart grid technologies. We provide a case study to express the power of such simulators.

Keywords: smart grids, simulation, socio-economic parameters, feed in tariff (FiT), forecasting

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Authors: Rigers Dodaj

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Nowadays, the environment is a critical goal for civil engineers, human activity, construction projects, economic growth, and whole national development. Regarding the development of Albania's economy, people's living standards are increasing, and the requirements for the living environment are also increasing. Under these circumstances, environmental protection and sustainability this is the critical issue. The rising industrialization, urbanization, and energy demand affect the environment by emission of carbon dioxide gas (CO2), a significant parameter known to impact air pollution directly. Consequently, many governments and international organizations conducted policies and regulations to address environmental degradation in the pursuit of economic development, for instance in Albania, the CO2 emission calculated in metric tons per capita has increased by 23% in the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the importance of civil engineering and economic growth in the sustainability of the environment focusing on CO2 emission. The analyzed data are time series 2001 - 2020 (with annual frequency), based on official publications of the World Bank. The statistical approach with vector error correction model and time series forecasting model are used to perform the parameter’s estimations and long-run equilibrium. The research in this paper adds a new perspective to the evaluation of a sustainable environment in the context of carbon emission reduction. Also, it provides reference and technical support for the government toward green and sustainable environmental policies. In the context of low-carbon development, effectively improving carbon emission efficiency is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable economic and environmental protection. Also, the study reveals that civil engineering development projects impact greatly the environment in the long run, especially in areas of flooding, noise pollution, water pollution, erosion, ecological disorder, natural hazards, etc. The potential for reducing industrial carbon emissions in recent years indicates that reduction is becoming more difficult, it needs another economic growth policy and more civil engineering development, by improving the level of industrialization and promoting technological innovation in industrial low-carbonization.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, civil engineering, economic growth, environmental sustainability

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Authors: Barkaoui Asma

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In our article, we use the economic approach of measuring advertising effectiveness to show the margin of advertising spread gained through digital communication. For economists, profit maximization depends on determining the optimal advertising budget. For this, they use the theories of the marginalist current to determine when the maximum level of benefits is reached. Using the economic approach we show the significant return on investment for advertisers. We then discuss the risks of perception of advertising pressure by consumers.

Keywords: digital advertising, economic approach, effectiveness, pressure

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment

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Authors: Oduntan Kemi Olalekan

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Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa is still in its developing stage as its economy cannot be termed developed; it is still in search of economic policy that will positively affect the life of majority of her citizenry. Several policies have been employed to take care of the situation prominent among which is Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of Babangida Administration but it could not rescue the economy. Non-interest Banking otherwise known as Islamic Banking has been suggested as a means of developing Nigerian economy as it will enable more Nigerian have access to working capital and contribute positively to the growth of her economy. The paper investigated the level of Nigeria economic development and gave an overview of economic policies since independence, traced the genesis of non-interest banking in Nigeria and made recommendations on the adoption of the policy as an antidote to Nigeria economic development.

Keywords: economic development, Nigerian economy, non-interest banking, working capital, Islamic banking.

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Authors: Abdellatif Chebboub

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Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, weather change, danger of climate change

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and “Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in “Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve their predictions of the future economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, frequency domain, governance, granger causality

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Authors: K. J. Jegede, O. O. Odekunle

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The challenges facing government at all levels in the area of urban development are two folds, first is how to provide basic services for urban dwellers especially the urban poor and second, how to make cities and towns as model of good places for economic development. The key ingredients and catalysts for achieving these goals are strong and virile institutional capacity, urban infrastructure and a supportive urban policy framework. The government at all levels have been upgrading and expanding city infrastructure and services in Ibadan, the state capital to support sustainable economic development of the city, particularly in the areas of electricity, neighbourhood, solid waste management, transport, water supply, education, health facilities and markets developments to discourage street trading. This paper attempts to present Ibadan in the millennium as 'a model of a sustainable city'. A planned development strategy that had sustained the growth of the city from a war camp in the 19th century to a cosmopolitan city in the 21st century with the potential to become a megacity. The presentation examines, among others, the physical structure and population density of Ibadan city, the challenges of economic development, the development of urban infrastructure and services in Ibadan metropolitan area. The paper submitted by mapping out a strategy to achieve sustainable development of Ibadan city.

Keywords: megacity, physical structure, sustainable city, urban infrastructure

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Authors: Guoqin Ge, Minhui Huang, Yazhou Zhou

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The growth of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has been designated as a national strategy in China. Analyzing its spatial evolution characteristics is crucial for devising relevant development strategies. This paper enhances the gravitational model by using temporal distance as a factor. It applies this improved model to assess the economic interconnection and concentration level of each geographical unit within the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration between 2011 and 2019. On this basis, this paper examines the spatial correlation characteristics of economic agglomeration intensity and urban-rural development equalization by employing spatial autocorrelation analysis. The study findings indicate that the spatial integration in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is currently in the "point-axis" development stage. The spatial organization structure is becoming more flattened, and there is a stronger economic connection between the core of the urban agglomeration and the peripheral areas. The integration of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is currently hindered by conflicting interests and institutional heterogeneity between Chengdu and Chongqing. Additionally, the connections between the relatively secondary spatial units are largely loose and weak. The strength and scale of economic ties and the level of urban-rural equilibrium among spatial units within the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have increased, but regional imbalances have continued to widen, and such positive and negative changes have been characterized by the spatial and temporal synergistic evolution of the "core-periphery". Ultimately, this paper presents planning ideas for the future integration development of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, drawing from the findings.

Keywords: integration, planning strategy, space organization, space evolution, urban agglomeration

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Authors: M. N. A. Azman, M. S. S. Ahamad

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The Construction Industry Development Board of Malaysia has been actively promoting the use of precast manufacturing in the local construction industry over the last decade. In an era of rapid technological changes, precast manufacturing significantly contributes to improving construction activities and ensuring sustainable economic growth. Current studies on the location decision of precast manufacturing plants aimed to enhanced local economic development are scarce. To address this gap, the present research establishes a new set of spatial criteria, such as attribute maps and preference weights, derived from a survey of local industry decision makers. These data represent the input parameters for the MCE-GIS site selection model, for which the weighted linear combination method is used. Verification tests on the model were conducted to determine the potential precast manufacturing sites in the state of Penang, Malaysia. The tests yield a predicted area of 12.87 acres located within a designated industrial zone. Although, the model is developed specifically for precast manufacturing plant but nevertheless it can be employed to other types of industries by following the methodology and guidelines proposed in the present research.

Keywords: geographical information system, multi criteria evaluation, industrialised building system, civil engineering

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator

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Authors: Allé Dieng, Mamadou Bousso, Latif Dramani

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The purpose of this work is to show the complexity behind economical interrelations in a country and provide a linear dynamic model of economical dependency evolution in a country. The model is based on National Transfer Account which is one of the most robust methodology developed in order to measure a level of demographic dividend captured in a country. It is built upon three major factors: demography, economical dependency and migration. The established mathematical model has been simulated using Netlogo software. The innovation of this study is in describing economical dependency as a complex system and simulating using mathematical equation the evolution of the two populations: the economical dependent and the non-economical dependent as defined in the National Transfer Account methodology. It also allows us to see the interactions and behaviors of both populations. The model can track individual characteristics and look at the effect of birth and death rates on the evolution of these two populations. The developed model is useful to understand how demographic and economic phenomenon are related

Keywords: ABM, demographic dividend, National Transfer Accounts (NTA), ODE

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Authors: Arnault Morisson

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Innovation districts are being implemented as urban regeneration strategies in cities as diverse as Barcelona (Spain), Boston (Massachusetts), Chattanooga (Tennessee), Detroit (Michigan), Medellin (Colombia), and Montréal (Canada). Little, however, is known about the concept. This paper aims to provide a framework to define innovation districts. The research methodology is based on a qualitative approach using 22@ Barcelona as a case study. 22@ Barcelona was the first innovation district ever created and has been a model for the innovation districts of Medellin (Colombia) and Boston (Massachusetts) among others. Innovation districts based on the 22@ Barcelona’s model can be defined as top-down urban innovation ecosystems designed around four multilayered and multidimensional models of innovation: urban planning, productive, collaborative, and creative, all coordinated under strong leadership, with the ultimate objectives to accelerate the innovation process and competitiveness of a locality. Innovation districts aim to respond to a new economic paradigm in which economic production flows back to cities.

Keywords: innovation ecosystem, governance, technology park, urban planning, urban policy, urban regeneration

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Caroline S. Dutra, Tatiana C. Squeff

Abstract:

It is well known that the history between South Korea and Japan influences their international relations; thus, also encompassing their economic relations. In this sense, it is impossible to analyze the latter without understanding the development of the former, which is known for episodes of hostility, like on Japanese colonization, but also had moments of cultural and trade interexchange. Indeed, since 1965, with the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, their trade relations have improved, especially after both nations have signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Thereafter, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, another chapter of their diplomatic and economic relations have been inaugurated. Hence, bearing in mind this history between both nations, this research intends to examine their relations through the analysis of the WTO panels they have engaged in between each other, which are, in chronological order, “DS323: Japan – Import Quotas on Dried Laver and Seasoned Laver”, “DS336: Japan - Countervailing Duties on Dynamic Random Access Memories from Korea”, “DS495: Korea - Import Band, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides”, “DS553: Korea - Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Stainless Steel Bars” and “DS571: Korea - Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels”. The objective of this case analysis is to point out what are the areas that are more conflictual between Japan and South Korea in regard to their economic relations so that it is possible to assert on their future (economic) relations and other possible outcomes. And in order to do so, bibliographic and documental research will be made, particularly those involving the WTO and the nations under consideration. Regarding the methods used, it is important to highlight that this is applied research in the field of international economic relations and international law, which follows a hypothetic-deductive model.

Keywords: international economic relations, Japan, South Korea, World Trade Organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

Abstract:

Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 415