Search results for: administrative decisions

Authors: Lin Peng, Jin Zhang, Yuanyuan Miao, Quanquan Zheng

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Group discussion and group decision-making have long been a topic of research interest. Traditional research on group decision making typically focuses on the strategies or functional models of combining members’ preferences to reach an optimal consensus. In this research, we want to explore natural process group decision making through discussion and examine relevant, influential factors--common superordinate identity shared by group and size of the groups. We manipulated the social identity of the groups into either a shared superordinate identity or different subgroup identities. We also manipulated the size to make it either a big (6-8 person) group or small group (3-person group). Using experimental methods, we found members of a superordinate identity group tend to modify more of their own opinions through the discussion, compared to those only identifying with their subgroups. Besides, members of superordinate identity groups also formed stronger identification with group decision--the results of group discussion than their subgroup peers. We also found higher member modification in bigger groups compared to smaller groups. Evaluations of decisions before and after discussion as well as group decisions are strongly linked to group identity, as members of superordinate group feel more confident and satisfied with both the results and decision-making process. Members’ opinions are more similar and homogeneous in smaller groups compared to bigger groups. This research have many implications for further research and applied behaviors in organizations.

Keywords: group decision making, group size, identification, modification, superordinate identity

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Authors: Alexey Abilov

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Sociological research in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population in the last decade has become an essential part of a comprehensive assessment of the territory in the practice of urban planning in Kazakhstan. This method was successfully used for developing master plans of settlements, urban agglomerations, and projects of detailed planning of individual sections of the urban environment. Also, it greatly contributes to the objectification of design solutions, since in addition to the traditional expert multifactorial assessment of urban development territories by professional designers, they provide an opportunity to consider existing urban development problems at the local level from the inside, through the eyes of the living population. A comparison of two areas of assessment of the territory -expert and social- allows us to give a more balanced final assessment, which can serve as a strong basis for making correct design decisions. The author of the article shows this by the example of the social assessment of the territory of the Almaty urban agglomeration in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population conducted in order to assess the quality of the living environment of the population, preferences in place and forms of recreation, as well as to delimitation the boundaries of the agglomeration. At the same time, the author's methodology of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the territory divided into polling stations is used, based on a comparison of the percentage of respondents' responses to various questionnaire questions with the total number of respondents.

Keywords: social assessment of territory, comprehensive assessment, urban agglomeration, correct design decisions

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Authors: Atefeh Heydari, Mohammadali Tavakoli, Naomie Salim

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In recent years, we have witnessed that online reviews are the most important source of customers’ opinion. They are progressively more used by individuals and organisations to make purchase and business decisions. Unfortunately, for the reason of profit or fame, frauds produce deceptive reviews to hoodwink potential customers. Their activities mislead not only potential customers to make appropriate purchasing decisions and organisations to reshape their business, but also opinion mining techniques by preventing them from reaching accurate results. Spam reviews could be divided into two main groups, i.e. multiple and singleton spam reviews. Detecting a singleton spam review that is the only review written by a user ID is extremely challenging due to lack of clue for detection purposes. Singleton spam reviews are very harmful and various features and proofs used in multiple spam reviews detection are not applicable in this case. Current research aims to propose a novel supervised technique to detect singleton spam reviews. To achieve this, various features are proposed in this study and are to be combined with the most appropriate features extracted from literature and employed in a classifier. In order to compare the performance of different classifiers, SVM and naive Bayes classification algorithms were used for model building. The results revealed that SVM was more accurate than naive Bayes and our proposed technique is capable to detect singleton spam reviews effectively.

Keywords: classification algorithms, Naïve Bayes, opinion review spam detection, singleton review spam detection, support vector machine

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Authors: Jerzy Banski

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Small towns represent a key element of settlement structure and serve a number of important functions associated with the servicing of rural areas that surround them. It is in light of this that scientific studies have paid considerable attention to the functional structure of centers of this kind, as well as the relationships with both surrounding rural areas and other urban centers. But a preliminary to such research has typically involved attempts at classifying the urban centers themselves, with this also assisting with the planning and shaping of development policy on different spatial scales. The purpose of the work is to test out the methods underpinning three different classifications of small urban centers, as well as to offer a preliminary interpretation of the outcomes obtained. Research took in 722 settlement units in Poland, granted town rights and populated by fewer than 20,000 inhabitants. A morphologically-based classification making reference to the database of topographic objects as regards land cover within the administrative boundaries of towns and cities was carried out, and it proved possible to distinguish the categories of “housing-estate”, industrial and R&R towns, as well as towns characterized by dichotomy. Equally, a functional/morphological approach taken with the same database allowed for the identification – via an alternative method – of three main categories of small towns (i.e., the monofunctional, multifunctional or oligo functional), which could then be described in far greater detail. A third, multi-criterion classification made simultaneous reference to the conditioning of a structural, a location-related, and an administrative hierarchy-related nature, allowing for distinctions to be drawn between small towns in 9 different categories. The results obtained allow for multifaceted analysis and interpretation of the geographical differentiation characterizing the distribution of Poland’s urban centers across space in the country.

Keywords: small towns, classification, local planning, Poland

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Authors: I. Nyoman Mahayasa Adiputra

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Data in the field of health can be useful for the purposes of data analysis, one example of health data is disease data. Disease data is usually in a geographical plot in accordance with the area. Where the data was collected, in the city of Denpasar, Bali. Disease data report is still published in tabular form, disease information has not been mapped in GIS form. In this research, disease information in Denpasar city will be digitized in the form of a geographic information system with the smallest administrative area in the form of district. Denpasar City consists of 4 districts of North Denpasar, East Denpasar, West Denpasar and South Denpasar. In this research, we use Google fusion table technology for map digitization process, where this technology can facilitate from the administrator and from the recipient information. From the administrator side of the input disease, data can be done easily and quickly. From the receiving end of the information, the resulting GIS application can be published in a website-based application so that it can be accessed anywhere and anytime. In general, the results obtained in this study, divided into two, namely: (1) Geolocation of Denpasar and all of Denpasar districts, the process of digitizing the map of Denpasar city produces a polygon geolocation of each - district of Denpasar city. These results can be utilized in subsequent GIS studies if you want to use the same administrative area. (2) Dengue fever mapping in 2014 and 2015. Disease data used in this study is dengue fever case data taken in 2014 and 2015. Data taken from the profile report Denpasar Health Department 2015 and 2016. This mapping can be useful for the analysis of the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the city of Denpasar.

Keywords: geographic information system, Google fusion table technology, delivery of disease data information, Denpasar city

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Authors: Priyal Motwani, Garvit Goel

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In this study, we have studied and analysed the transaction data of investors of a mutual fund investment company based in India. Based on the data available, we have identified the top four biases that affect the investors of the emerging market economies through regression analysis and three uniquely defined ratios. We found that the four most prominent biases that affected the investment making decisions in India are– Chauffer Knowledge, investors tend to make ambitious decisions about sectors they know little about; Bandwagon effect – the response of the market indices to macroeconomic events are more profound and seem to last longer compared to western markets; base-rate neglect – judgement about stocks are too much based on the most recent development ignoring the long-term fundamentals of the stock; availability bias – lack of proper communication channels of market information lead people to be too reliant on limited information they already have. After segregating the investors into six groups, the results have further been studied to identify a correlation among the demographics, gender and unique cultural identity of the derived groups and the corresponding prevalent biases. On the basis of the results obtained from the derived groups, our study recommends six methods, specific to each group, to educate the investors about the prevalent biases and their role in investment decision making.

Keywords: Bandwagon effect, behavioural biases, Chauffeur knowledge, demographics, investor literacy, mutual funds

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Authors: D. M. Samartsev, A. G. Copping

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As with all industries, architects are using increasing amounts of automation within practice, with approaches such as generative design and use of AI becoming more commonplace. However, the discourse on the rate at which the architectural design process is being automated is often personal and lacking in objective figures and measurements. This results in confusion between people and barriers to effective discourse on the subject, in turn limiting the ability of architects, policy makers, and members of the public in making informed decisions in the area of design automation. This paper proposes the use of a framework to quantify the progress of automation within the design process. The use of a reductionist analysis of the design process allows it to be quantified in a manner that enables direct comparison across different times, as well as locations and projects. The methodology is informed by the design of this framework – taking on the aspects of a systematic review but compressed in time to allow for an initial set of data to verify the validity of the framework. The use of such a framework of quantification enables various practical uses such as predicting the future of the architectural industry with regards to which tasks will be automated, as well as making more informed decisions on the subject of automation on multiple levels ranging from individual decisions to policy making from governing bodies such as the RIBA. This is achieved by analyzing the design process as a generic task that needs to be performed, then using principles of work breakdown systems to split the task of designing an entire building into smaller tasks, which can then be recursively split further as required. Each task is then assigned a series of milestones that allow for the objective analysis of its automation progress. By combining these two approaches it is possible to create a data structure that describes how much various parts of the architectural design process are automated. The data gathered in the paper serves the dual purposes of providing the framework with validation, as well as giving insights into the current situation of automation within the architectural design process. The framework can be interrogated in many ways and preliminary analysis shows that almost 40% of the architectural design process has been automated in some practical fashion at the time of writing, with the rate at which progress is made slowly increasing over the years, with the majority of tasks in the design process reaching a new milestone in automation in less than 6 years. Additionally, a further 15% of the design process is currently being automated in some way, with various products in development but not yet released to the industry. Lastly, various limitations of the framework are examined in this paper as well as further areas of study.

Keywords: analysis, architecture, automation, design process, technology

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Authors: Ling-Lang Huang

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Background: The holistic health care should ideally cover physical, mental, spiritual, and social aspects of a patient. With very constrained time in current clinical practice system, medical decisions often tip the balance in favor of evidence-based medicine (EBM) in comparison to patient's personal values. Even in the era of competence-based medical education (CBME), when scrutinizing the items of entrustable professional activities (EPAs), we found that EPAs of establishing doctor-patient relationship remained incomplete or even missing. This phenomenon prompted us to raise this project aiming at advocating value-based medicine (VBM), which emphasizes the importance of patient’s values in medical decisions. A true and effective doctor-patient communication and relationship should be a well-balanced harmony of EBM and VBM. By constructing VBM into current EPAs, we can further promote genuine shared decision making (SDM) and fix the missing link in holistic health care. Methods: In this project, we are going to find out EPA elements crucial for establishing an ideal doctor-patient relationship through three distinct pairs of doctor-patient relationships: patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (relatively young but with grave disease), patients undergoing surgery (facing critical medical decisions), and patients with terminal diseases (facing forthcoming death). We’ll search for important EPA elements through the following steps: 1. Narrative approach to delineate patients’ values among 2. distinct groups. 3.Hermeneutics-based interview: semi-structured interview will be conducted for both patients and physicians, followed by qualitative analysis of collected information by compiling, disassembling, reassembling, interpreting, and concluding. 4. Preliminarily construct those VBM elements into EPAs for doctor-patient relationships in 3 groups. Expected Outcomes: The results of this project are going to give us invaluable information regarding the impact of patients’ values, while facing different medical situations, on the final medical decision. The competence of well-blending and -balanced both values from patients and evidence from clinical sciences is the missing link in holistic health care and should be established in future EPAs to enhance an effective SDM.

Keywords: value-based medicine, shared decision making, entrustable professional activities, holistic health care

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Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen

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In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.

Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system

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Authors: Mostafa Jafari

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Religious tourism is the core strategy of shaping Iranian's life-style. Why and How? This paper answers to this question. Theoretical base: From strategic marketing point of view, Life style is pattern of believes values, interests and acts. Strategy can be defined as a set of continuous important decisions. Here, strategy is making decisions about the target place and vehicle of touristic travel due to reform and redefine the self-identity and shaping life style. Methodology: Target society of this research is the selected residents of three provinces at northwest of Iran. The data collection instrument is interview and questionnaire and the collected data analysis by SEM (structural Equation Modeling) and LISREL software. Results: The primary results show that variety of touristic travels play an important role on shaping new life style of Iranian people. The target places of touristic travel (Europe, USA. Japan and etc.) are at the second priority. The number of foreign friends is at the third position. The fourth criteria are the number of travels. Among all kind of touristic travels the religious tourism from competitive point of view plays the main role. Findings: The geometry of Iranian life style are shaping and reshaping through some domestic and international tourism strategies particular religious strategy. During the dynamic trend of identity redefine, so many Iranians put the quantity and quality of their touristic travel on the first priority.

Keywords: religious tourism, core strategy, shaping life style

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: Lee Waters, Itay Basevitch, Matthew Timmis

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Objectives: Eye tracking technology is a valuable method of assessing individuals gaze behaviour, but it does not unveil why they are engaging in certain practices. To address limitations in sport eye tracking research the present paper aims to investigate the gaze behaviours soccer officials engage in during successful and unsuccessful offside decisions, but also why. Methods: 20 male active amateur qualified (Level 4-7) soccer officials (Mage 22.5 SD 4.61 yrs) with an average experience of 41-50 games wore eye tracking technology during an applied attack versus defence drill. While reviewing the eye tracking footage, retrospective semi-structured interviews were conducted (M=20.4 min; SD=6.2; Range 11.7 – 26.8 min) and once transcribed inductive thematic analysis was performed. Findings and Discussion: To improve the understanding of gaze behaviours and how officials make sense of the environment, during the interview’s key constructs of offside, decision making, obstacles and emotions were summarised as the higher order themes while making offside decisions. Gaze anchoring was highlighted to be a successful technique to allow officials to see all relevant information, whereas the type of offside was emphasised to be a key factor in correct interpretation. Furthermore, specific decision-making training was outlined to be inconsistent and not always applicable. Conclusions: Key constructs have been identified and explained, which can be shared with soccer officials through training regimes. Eye tracking technology has also been shown to be a useful and innovative reflective tool to assist in the understanding of individuals gaze behaviours.

Keywords: eye tracking, gaze behvaiour, decision making, reflection

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Authors: Christian Skowronski, Andrew Shanholtzer, Brent Yelton, Muayad Almahariq, Daniel J. Krauss

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Prostate cancer has the third highest incidence rate and is the second leading cause of cancer death for men in the United States. Of the diagnostic tools available for intermediate-risk prostate cancer, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft tissue delineation serving as a valuable tool for both diagnosis and treatment planning. Currently, there is minimal data regarding the practical utility of MRI for evaluation of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. As such, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network’s guidelines indicate MRI as optional in intermediate-risk prostate cancer evaluation. This project aims to elucidate whether MRI affects radiation treatment decisions for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. This was a retrospective study evaluating 210 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, treated with definitive radiotherapy at our institution between 2019-2020. NCCN risk stratification criteria were used to define intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patients were divided into two groups: those with pretreatment prostate MRI, and those without pretreatment prostate MRI. We compared the use of external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy alone, brachytherapy boost, and androgen depravation therapy between the two groups. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to match the two groups for age, comorbidity index, American Urologic Association symptoms index, pretreatment PSA, grade group, and percent core involvement on prostate biopsy. Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Chi-squared tests were used to compare continuous and categorical variables. Of the patients who met the study’s eligibility criteria, 133 had a prostate MRI and 77 did not. Following propensity matching, there were no differences between baseline characteristics between the two groups. There were no statistically significant differences in treatments pursued between the two groups: 42% vs 47% were treated with brachytherapy alone, 40% vs 42% were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone, 18% vs 12% were treated with external beam radiotherapy with a brachytherapy boost, and 24% vs 17% received androgen deprivation therapy in the non-MRI and MRI groups, respectively. This analysis suggests that pretreatment MRI does not significantly impact radiation therapy or androgen deprivation therapy decisions in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Obtaining a pretreatment prostate MRI should be used judiciously and pursued only to answer a specific question, for which the answer is likely to impact treatment decision. Further follow up is needed to correlate MRI findings with their impacts on specific oncologic outcomes.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, prostate cancer, definitive radiotherapy, gleason score 7

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Authors: Ujunma Nnenna Egbuawa

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Rape or sexual assault is a hideous crime of violence done predominantly to women and occasionally to men. In institutions of higher learning, it’s mostly experienced within or outside the campus environment due to students who are from different backgrounds socially. These students also have been imbibed with conflicting ethical standards, thus act both morally and amoral with respect to their sexual urges. The most affected among these are the female students who live outside the campus environment that is suitable for any immoral activity. These female students that are victims of rape hardly would want to be identified and this has left them as habitual prey to the unsuspecting predators. The socio-cultural setting has also been a contributory factor to the psychological and physical damage these victims face throughout their time of study as female rape victims. This is an empirical study designed to elicit information from students of Federal Polytechnic Nekede Owerri Imo State Nigeria on whether they have been sexually assaulted or raped and how they handled it thereafter. This institution was used as a case study because the provost of this tertiary institution is a woman whose name is Dr( Mrs ) C.U Njoku who has made consented efforts to ensure these rape victims rise above the social stigma associated with it. This rector has also put in some measures to bring about a decline in cases of rape within and outside the campus environment. She also granted the researcher an oral interview on how she has been able to achieve these and the challenges she hitherto faced in the process. Three research questions and a hypothesis guided the study. Samples of 119 students were used and stratification was done for sex, age and the academic level of the students. 14 item questionnaires were used and data generated from the survey were analyzed using percentages. This workshop would engage the participants by investigating some courses that may help in declining the rate of rape cases within a campus. Also, necessary measures that would be taken to help in sensitizing the tertiary institutions in areas that can aid the healing procedures of these victims. The need also for guidance and counseling unit is also a necessity for the psychological survival of these rape victims. As a result, the participants would gain an increased awareness of the influence of rape and sexual assault on campus. There ought to be a paradigm shift in institutions of higher learning in policies, administrative decisions and introduction of courses that will uplift ethical standards in order to bring about a change both locally and globally.

Keywords: institutions, psychological, sexual assault, socio-cultural

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: Vitalijus Leibenka

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After 2014 the world of Russia’s actions in annexing Crimea has seen a hybrid war that has helped Russia achieve its goals. The world and NATO nations have pointed out that hybrid action can help achieve not only military but also economic and political goals. One of the weapons of action in hybrid warfare is information warfare tools, the use of which helps to carry out actions in the context of hybrid warfare as a whole. In addition, information war tools can be used alone, over time and for long-term purposes. Although forms of information war, such as propaganda and disinformation, have been used in the past, in old conflicts and wars, new forms of information war have emerged as a result of technological development, making the dissemination of information faster and more efficient. The world understands that information is becoming a weapon, but not everyone understands that both information war and information warfare differ in their essence and full content. In addition, the damage and impact of the use of information war, which may have worse consequences than a brief military conflict, is underestimated. Lithuania is also facing various interpretations of the information war. Some believe that the information attack is an information war and the understanding of the information war is limited to a false message in the press. Others, however, deepen and explain the essence of the information war. Society has formed in such a way that not all people are able to assess the threats of information war, to separate information war from information attack. Recently, the Lithuanian government has been taking measures in the context of the information war, making decisions that allow the development of the activities of the state and state institutions in order to create defense mechanisms in the information war. However, this is happening rather slowly and incompletely. Every military conflict, related to Lithuania in one way or another, forces Lithuanian politicians to take up the theme of information warfare again. As a result, a national cyber security center is being set up, and Russian channels spreading lies are banned. However, there is no consistent development and continuous improvement of action against information threats. Although a sufficiently influential part of society (not a political part) helps to stop the spread of obscure information by creating social projects such as “Demaskuok” and “Laikykis ten su Andriumi tapinu”, it goes without saying that it will not become a key tool in the fight against information threats. Therefore, in order to achieve clean dissemination of information in Lithuania, full-fledged and substantial political decisions are necessary, the adoption of which would change the public perception of the information war, its damage, impact and actions that would allow to combat the spread. Political decisions should cover the educational, military, economic and political areas, which are one of the main and most important in the state, which would allow to fundamentally change the situation against the background of information war.

Keywords: information war, information warfare, hybrid war, hybrid warfare, NATO, Lithuania, Russia

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Authors: Belachew Gebrewold

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The Horn of Africa is marred by complex and systematic internal and external political, economic and social-cultural causes of conflict that result in internal displacement and migration. This paper engages with them and shows how such a study can help us to understand migration, both in this region and more generally. The conflict has occurred within states, between states, among proxies, between armies. Human insecurities as a result of the state collapse of Somalia, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the whole region, recurrent drought affecting the livelihoods of subsistence farmers as well as nomads, exposure to hunger, environmental degradation, youth unemployment, rapid growth of slums around big cities, and political repression (especially in Eritrea) have been driving various segments of the regional population into regional and international migration. Eritrea has been going through a brutal dictatorship which pushes many Eritreans to flee their country and be exposed to human trafficking, torture, detention, and agony on their way to Europe mainly through Egypt, Libya and Israel. Similarly, Somalia has been devastated since 1991 by unending civil war, state collapse, and radical Islamists. There are some important aspects to highlight in the conflict-migration nexus in the Horn of Africa: first, the main push factor for the Somalis and Eritreans to leave their countries and risk their lives is the physical insecurity they have been facing in their countries. Secondly, as a result of the conflict the economic infrastructure is massively destroyed. Investment is rare; job opportunities are out of sight. Thirdly, in such a grim situation the politically and economically induced decision to migrate is a household decision, not only an individual decision. Based on this third point this research study took place in the Horn of Africa between 2014 and 2016 during different occasions. The main objective of the research was to understanding how the increasing migration is affecting the socio-economic and socio-political environment, and conversely how the socio-economic and socio-political environments are increasing migration decisions; and whether and how these decisions are individual or family decisions. The main finding is the higher the human insecurity, the higher the family decision; the lower the human insecurity, the higher the individual decision. These findings apply not only to the Eritrean, Somali migrants but also to Ethiopian migrants. But the general impacts of migration on sending countries’ human security is quite mixed and complex.

Keywords: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Horn of Africa, insecurity, migration, Somalia

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Abdessadek Bendarag

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Sustainable economic growth is nowadays driving firms to extend toward the adoption of many green supply chain management (GSCM) solutions. However, the evaluation and selection of these solutions is a matter of concern that needs very serious decisions, involving complexity owing to the presence of various associated factors. To resolve this problem, a comparative analysis approach based on multi-criteria decision-making methods is proposed for adequate evaluation of sustainable supply chain management solutions. In the present paper, we propose an integrated decision-making model based on FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) to contribute to a better understanding and development of new sustainable strategies for industrial organizations. Due to the varied importance of the selected criteria, FAHP is used to identify the evaluation criteria and assign the importance weights for each criterion, while TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods employ these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate and rank the alternatives. The main objective is to provide a comparative analysis based on TOPSIS and PROMETHEE processes to help make sound and reasoned decisions related to the selection problem of GSCM solution.

Keywords: GSCM solutions, multi-criteria analysis, decision support system, TOPSIS, FAHP, PROMETHEE

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Authors: Aishwarya K. V., Shreya Sudesh

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Built along the edges of a 11th century CE man-made lake, the city of Bhopal has stood witness to historic layers dating back to Palaeolithic times; early and medieval kingdoms ranging from the Parmaras, Pratiharas to tribal Gonds; the Begum-Nawabs and finally became the Capital of Madhya Pradesh, post-Independence. The lake more popularly called the Upper Lake was created by the King Raja Bhoj from the Parmara dynasty in 1010 AD when he constructed a bund wall across the Kolans river. Atop this bund wall lies the Kamlapati Mahal - which was part of the royal enclosure built in 1702 belonging to the Gond Kingdom. The Mahal is the epicentre of development in the city because it lies in the centre of the axis joining the Old core and New City. Rapid urbanisation descended upon the city once it became the administrative capital of Madhya Pradesh, a newly-formed state of an Independent India. Industrial pockets began being set up and refugees from the Indo-Pakistan separation settled in various regions of the city. To cater to these sudden growth, there was a boom in infrastructure development in the late twentieth century which included precarious decisions made in terms of handling heritage sites causing the destruction of significant parts of the historic fabric. And this practice continues to this day as buffer/ protected zones are breached through exemptions and the absence of robust regulations allow further deterioration of urban heritage. The aim of the research is to systematically study in detail the effect of the urban infrastructure development of the city and its adverse effect on the existing heritage fabric. Through the paper, an attempt to study the parameters involved in preparing the Masterplan of the city and other development projects is done. The research would follow a values-led approach to study the heritage fabric where the significance of the place is assessed based on the values attributed by stakeholders. This approach will involve collection and analysis of site data, assessment of the significance of the site and listing of potential. The study would also attempt to arrive at a solution to deal with urban development along with the protection of the heritage fabric.

Keywords: heritage management, infrastructure development, urban conservation, urban heritage

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Authors: Alireza Nikravanshallmani, Jamshid Dehmeshki, Mojtaba Ahmadi

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Modeling of business processes, based on BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation), helps analysts and managers to understand business processes, and, identify their shortages. These models provide a context to make rational decision of organizing business processes activities in an understandable manner. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for better understanding of business processes and their problems by reducing the cognitive load of displayed information for their audience at different managerial levels while keeping the essential information which are needed by them. For this reason, we integrate business process diagrams across the different managerial levels to develop a framework to improve the performance of business process management (BPM) projects. The proposed framework is entitled ‘Business process improvement framework based on managerial levels (BPIML)’. This framework, determine a certain type of business process diagrams (BPD) based on BPMN with respect to the objectives and tasks of the various managerial levels of organizations and their roles in BPM projects. This framework will make us able to provide the necessary support for making decisions about business processes. The framework is evaluated with a case study in a real business process improvement project, to demonstrate its superiority over the conventional method. A questionnaire consisted of 10 questions using Likert scale was designed and given to the participants (managers of Bank Refah Kargaran three managerial levels). By examining the results of the questionnaire, it can be said that the proposed framework provide support for correct and timely decisions by increasing the clarity and transparency of the business processes which led to success in BPM projects.

Keywords: business process management (BPM), business process modeling, business process reengineering (BPR), business process optimizing, BPMN

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Authors: Shenaz Ahmed, Hussain Jafri, Muhammed Faran, Wajeeha Naseer Ahmed, Yasmin Rashid, Yasmin Ehsan, Shabnam Bashir, Mushtaq Ahmed

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Low uptake of cascade screening for βeta-Thalassaemia Major (β-TM) in the ‘Punjab Thalassaemia Prevention Project’ (PTPP) in Pakistan led to the development of a ‘decision support intervention for relatives’ (DeSIRe). This paper presents the experiences of relatives of children with β-TM of the DeSIRe following its use by PTPP field officers in routine clinical practice. Fifty-four semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted (April to June 2021) with relatives in seven cities in the Punjab province (Lahore, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahab, Kasur, Gujranwala, Multan, and Faisalabad). Thematic analysis shows that participants were satisfied with the content of the DeSIRe and its delivery by the field officers in a family meeting. They understood the main purpose of the DeSIRe was to improve their knowledge of β-TM and its inheritance, to enable them to make decisions about thalassemia carrier testing, particularly before marriage. While participants raised concerns about the stigma of testing positive, they believed the DeSIRe was an appropriate intervention, which supported relatives to make informed decisions. Our findings show the DeSIRe is appropriate for use by healthcare professionals in routine practice in a low-middle income country and has the potential to facilitate shared decision-making about cascade screening for thalassemia. Further research is needed to prove the efficacy of the DeSIRe.

Keywords: thalassemia, Pakistan, cascade screening, decision support

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Ágota Ladó

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Miercurea Ciuc is a town in the historical region of Szeklerland in Transylvania, Romania, with a predominantly Hungarian population (its name in Hungarian being Csíkszereda) having an urban landscape and environment that has been shaped dramatically by different perceptions of urbanization during the history. The town has been part of Hungary and the Austro-Hungarian Empire before the First World War. It even got an important role, becoming in 1876 the seat and administrative center of the historical Csík county. This marks the beginning of the first urbanization process: new administrative buildings, railways, a railway station, a hospital, a Redoute and new schools have been built, new streets have been opened. However, not only the public facilities have changed: the center of the town with its private houses has also transformed, new, modern decorative and lifestyle elements have appeared. One of the streets from the town center, Kossuth street, has been featured on many postcards of the time; even a novel has mentioned it as a symbol of modern urbanization. Right after the First World War, the town became part of Romania and aside from a short interruption (between 1940 and 1944), it is still part of it. The beginning of the second major urbanization process – exactly one hundred years later - is marked by the visit of the communist leader Nicolae Ceaușescu in Miercurea Ciuc on the 6th of October 1976. In the upcoming years, he decided and started to demolish the old Kossuth street and to construct a new avenue with tall blocks of flats according to the principles of socialist urbanization. No other Transylvanian settlement has gone through such systematic abolition of its historical center and urban history during the Communist era. Not only the urban landscape has been affected. The collective memory and contemporary identity of the locals are also violated by this recent transformation of the town: important spaces, buildings, venues of activities and events simply cannot be localized, thus understood - by the younger generations.

Keywords: communist era, historical urban landscape, urban identity, urbanization

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Authors: Dilliram Paudyal

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The history of taxation in Nepal dates back to antiquity. However, the modern tax system gained its momentum after the establishment of democracy in 1951, which initially focused only land tax and tariff on foreign trade. In the due time, several taxes were introduced, such as direct taxes, indirect taxes, and non-taxes. However, the tax structure in Nepal is heavily dominated by indirect taxes that contribute more than 60 % of the total revenue. The government has been mobilizing revenues through a series of tax reforms during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2002 – 2007) and successive Three-year Interim Development Plans by introducing several tax measures. However, these reforms are regressive in nature, which does not lead the overall economy towards short-run stability as well as in the long run development. Based on the literature review and discussion among government officials and few taxpayers individually and groups, this paper aims to major issues and challenges that hinder the tax reform effective in Nepal. Additionally, this paper identifies potential way and process of tax reform in Nepal. The results of the study indicate that transparency in a major problem in Nepalese tax system in Nepal, where serious structural constraints with administrative and procedural complexities envisaged in the Income Tax Act and taxpayers are often unaware of the specific size of tax which is to comply them. Some other issues include high tax rate, limited tax base, leakages in tax collection, rigid and complex Income Tax Act, inefficient and corrupt tax administration, limited potentialities of direct taxes and negative responsiveness of land tax with higher administrative costs. In the context, modality of tax structure and mobilize additional resources is to be rectified on a greater quantum by establishing an effective, dynamic and highly power driven Autonomous Revenue Board.

Keywords: corrupt, development, inefficient, taxation

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Authors: Sumiti Saharan, Pallav Patankar, Lily W. Lee

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Understanding the health-seeking behaviors and attitudes of women towards maternal health in the context of gender roles and family dynamics is tremendously crucial for designing effective and impactful interventions aimed at improving maternal and child health outcomes. Further, as the digital world becomes more accessible and affordable, it is imperative to scope the potential of digital technology in enabling access to maternal health information in different socio-economic groups (SEGs). In the summer of 2017, we conducted a study with 500 women across different SEGs in urban India who were pregnant or had had a delivery in the last year. The study was undertaken to assess their maternal health information seeking behavior with a particular focus on probing their use of digital technology for health-related information. The study also measured women's decision-making autonomy in the context of maternal health, awareness of their rights to quality and respectful maternal healthcare, and agency to voice their rights. We probed the impact of key variables including education, age, and socioeconomic status on all outcome variables. In terms of health-seeking behaviors, we found that women heavily relied on medical professionals and/or their mothers and mothers-in-law for all maternal health advice. Digital adoption was found to be high across all SEGs, with around 70% of women from all populations using the internet several times a week. On the other hand, use of the internet for both accessing maternal health information and choosing maternity hospitals were both significantly dependent on SEG. The key reasons reported for not using the internet for health purposes were lack of awareness and lack of trust on content accuracy. Decisions around health practices and type of delivery were found to be jointly made by women and other family members. Almost all women reported their husbands to play a key role in all maternal health decisions and for decisions with a clear financial implication like choice of hospital for delivery, husbands were reported to be the sole decision maker by a majority of women. The agency of women was also found to be low in interactions with maternal healthcare providers with a third of respondents not comfortable with voicing their opinions and preferences to their doctors. Interestingly, we find that this relatively low agency was prominent in both lower middle class and middle-class SEGs. Recognition of the sociocultural determinants of behavior is the first step in developing actionable strategies for improving maternal health outcomes. Our study quantifies the agency and autonomy of women in urban India and the variables that impact them. Our findings emphasize the value of gender normative approaches that factor in the key role husbands play in guiding maternal health decisions. They also highlight the power of digital approaches for catalyzing access to maternal health information. These insights into the attitude and behaviors of mothers in context of their sociocultural environments—and their relationship with digital technology—can help pave the way towards designing effective, scalable maternal and child health programs in developing nations like India.

Keywords: access to healthcare information, behavior, digital health, maternal health

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Authors: Avinash Kishore, Suman Chakrabarti

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In September 2013, the parliament of India enacted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) which entitles two-thirds of India’s population to five kilograms of rice, wheat or coarse cereals per person per month at one to three rupees per kilogram. Five states in India—Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal—had already implemented somewhat similar changes in the TPDS a few years earlier using their own budgetary resources. They made rice—coincidentally, all five states are predominantly rice-eating—available in fair price shops to a majority of their population at very low prices (less than Rs.3/kg). This paper tries to account for the changes in household consumption patterns associated with the change in TPDS policy in these states using data from household consumption surveys by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). NSS data show improvement in the coverage of TPDS and average off-take of grains from fair price shops between 2004-05 and 2009-10 across all states of India. However, the increase in coverage and off-take was significantly higher in four out of these five states than in the rest of India. An average household in these states purchased three kilos more rice per month from fair price shops than its counterpart in non-treated states as a result of more generous TPDS policies backed by administrative reforms. The increase in consumption of PDS rice was the highest in Chhattisgarh, the poster state of PDS reforms. Households in Chhattisgarh used money saved on rice to spend more on pulses, edible oil, vegetables and sugar and other non-food items. We also find evidence that making TPDS more inclusive and more generous is not enough unless it is supported by administrative reforms to improve grain delivery and control diversion to open markets.

Keywords: public distribution system, social safety-net, national food security act, diet quality, Chhattisgarh

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Authors: Marsha R. Lawrence

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Introduction: In February and March of 2020, many Black Americans in Albany, Georgia, were impacted by COVID-19 compared to the rest of the country. Due to misinformation and distrust in the community, citizens were not able to make good health decisions regarding COVID-19. The city of Albany applied for a grant with the Department of Health and Human Services, specifically the Office of Minority Health and it was approved. The city of Albany partnered with Albany State University to administer the grant and implementation ensued. Method: An eleven-page electronic and paper cross-sectional survey was given to participants. Albany State University recruited community partners like health care organizations and faith-based organizations to reach the citizens of Albany, Georgia. These partners reached participants through creative community activities to educate participants about COVID-19 and provide incentives to receive a vaccine. Data collection is still in progress because activities are ongoing. Anticipated Results: By December 2023, we anticipate results of the number of participants who accepted vaccines based on participants who stated providers checked their understanding, participants who were satisfied with communication regarding COVID-19 health information about the vaccine, and participants who were involved in decisions regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusion: Health communication is a subsection of health literacy. At this point, approximately 4000 individuals have received information and education about COVID-19 in the Albany area. We expect building trusting relationships played an important part in the increase in knowledge and vaccination in Albany, Georgia.

Keywords: health literacy, health communication, vaccination, COVID-19

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Authors: Gamze Safak, Umut Arslanoglu

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Cultural and tourism conservation and development zones and tourism centers are the boundaries declared for the purpose of protecting, using, and evaluating the sectoral development and planned development in areas where historical and cultural values are heavily involved and/or where tourism potential is high. The most rapidly changing regions in Turkey are tourism areas, especially the coastal areas. Planning these regions is not about only an economic gain but also a natural and physical environment and refers to a complex process. If the tourism sector is not well controlled, excessive use of natural resources and wrong location choices may cause damage to natural areas, historical values, and socio-cultural structure. Since the strategic decisions taken in the environmental order and zoning plans, which are the means of guiding the physical environment of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, which have the authority to make plans in tourism centers, are transformed into plan decisions that find the spatial expression, comprehensive evaluation of all kinds of data, following the historical development and based on the correct and current data is required. In addition, the authority has a number of competences in tourism promotion as well as the authority to plan, leading to the necessity of taking part in the applications requiring complex analysis such as the management and integration of the country's economic, political, social and cultural resources. For this purpose, Tourism Inventory System (TES) project, which consists of a series of subsystems, has been developed in order to solve complex planning and method problems in the management of site-related information. The scope of the project is based on the integration of numerical and verbal data in the regions within the jurisdiction of the authority, and the monitoring of the historical development of urban planning studies, making the spatial data of the institution easily accessible, shared, questionable and traceable in international standards. A dynamic and continuous system design has been put into practice by utilizing the advantage of the use of Geographical Information Systems in the planning process to play a role in making the right decisions, revealing the tools of social, economic, cultural development, and preservation of natural and cultural values. This paper, which is prepared by the project team members in TES (Tourism Inventory System), will present a study regarding the applicability of GIS in cultural and natural heritage conservation.

Keywords: cultural conservation, GIS, geographic information system, tourism inventory system, urban planning

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Authors: Ramune Kasperaviciene, Jurgita Motiejuniene, Dalia Venckiene

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Familiarising students with strategies for transferring cultural meanings (intertextual units, culture-specific idioms, culture-specific items, etc.) should be part of a comprehensive translator training programme. The present paper focuses on strategies for transferring such meanings into other languages and explores possibilities for introducing these methods and practice to translation students. The authors (university translation teachers) analyse the means of transferring cultural meanings from English into Lithuanian in a specific travel book, attribute these means to theoretically grounded strategies, and make calculations related to the frequency of adoption of specific strategies; translation students are familiarised with concepts and methods related to transferring cultural meanings and asked to put their theoretical knowledge into practice, i.e. interpret and translate certain culture-specific items from the same source text, and ground their decisions on theory; the comparison of the strategies employed by the professional translator of the source text (as identified by the authors of this study) and by the students is made. As a result, both students and teachers gain valuable experience, and new practices of conducting translation classes for a specific purpose evolve. Conclusions highlight the differences and similarities of non-professional and professional choices, summarise the possibilities for introducing methods of transferring cultural meanings to students, and round up with specific considerations of the impact of theoretical knowledge and the degree of experience on decisions made in the translation process.

Keywords: cultural meanings, culture-specific items, strategies for transferring cultural meanings, translator training

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Authors: Adel Pasztor

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International doctoral mobility is a largely under-researched component of academic mobility and migration. This is in stark contrast to the case of student mobility where much research has been undertaken on Erasmus students; or the growing research on academic staff mobility which can be viewed as a key part of highly skilled migration. The aim of this paper is to remedy the situation by specifically focusing on international doctoral students studying at elite higher education institutions in the United Kingdom. In doing so, in-depth qualitative interviews with doctoral students and recent graduates were carried out in order to identify the signifiers of an internationally mobile doctoral student and unpack the decision-making processes leading onto the choice of higher education institution abroad. Overall, a diverse range of degree subjects from within the humanities and the social sciences were covered with a relatively large spread of nationalities which include the following countries: Italy, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Australia, USA, China, and Chile. The interview questions were designed to probe the motivations, choices, educational trajectories and career plans of international doctoral students relative to their social class background, gender, nationality or funding. It was clear from the interviews that there were two main types of international doctoral students: those who ‘did not think anything else was ever a serious possibility’, contrasted with the other, more opportune type, to whom ‘it happened to be a PhD’. There were marked differences between the two types since initial access to university, mainly because educational decisions such as the doctorate do not happen in a vacuum, rather are built on the individual’s higher education aspirations and previous educational choices. The results were in line with existing literature suggesting that those with higher educated parents and from schools strongly supporting the choice process fared better as they were able to make well informed, well thought through as well as strategic decisions for their future involving the very best universities within the national boundaries. Being ‘at the right place’ often meant access to prestigious doctoral scholarships thus, the route of the PhD has been chosen even if it did not necessarily enhance career opportunities. At the same time, the initial higher education choices of those with limited capital were played out locally, although they did aim for the best universities within their geographically constrained landscape of choice. Here, the majority of students referred to some ‘turning points’ in their lives which lead them towards considering international doctoral opportunities but essentially their proactive, do-it-yourself attitude was behind the life-changing educational opportunities.

Keywords: choice, doctoral students, international mobility, PhD, UK

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