Search results for: absolute generality
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 570

Search results for: absolute generality

330 Unbreakable Obedience of Safety Regulation: The Study of Authoritarian Leadership and Safety Performance

Authors: Hong-Yi Kuo

Abstract:

Leadership is a key factor of improving workplace safety, and there have been abundant of studies which support the positive effects of appropriate leadership on employee safety performance in the western academic. However, little safety research focus on the Chinese leadership style like paternalistic leadership. To fill this gap, the resent study aims to examine the relationship between authoritarian leadership (one of the ternary mode in paternalistic leadership) and safety outcomes. This study makes hypothesis on different levels. First, on the group level, as an authoritarian leader regards safety value as the most important tasks, there would be positive effect on group safety outcomes through strengthening safety group norms by the emphasis on etiquette. Second, on the cross level, when a leader with authoritarian style has high priority on safety, employees may more obey the safety rules because of fear due to emphasis on absolute authority over the leader. Therefore, employees may show more safety performance and then increase individual safety outcomes. Survey data would be collected from 50 manufacturing groups (each group with more than 5 members and a leader) and a hierarchical linear modeling analysis would be conducted to analyze the hypothesis. Above the predictive result, the study expects to be a cornerstone of safety leadership research in the Chinese academic and practice.

Keywords: safety leadership, authoritarian leadership, group norms, safety behavior, supervisor safety priority

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
329 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making

Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
328 Walmart Sales Forecasting using Machine Learning in Python

Authors: Niyati Sharma, Om Anand, Sanjeev Kumar Prasad

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Assuming future sale value for any of the organizations is one of the major essential characteristics of tactical development. Walmart Sales Forecasting is the finest illustration to work with as a beginner; subsequently, it has the major retail data set. Walmart uses this sales estimate problem for hiring purposes also. We would like to analyzing how the internal and external effects of one of the largest companies in the US can walk out their Weekly Sales in the future. Demand forecasting is the planned prerequisite of products or services in the imminent on the basis of present and previous data and different stages of the market. Since all associations is facing the anonymous future and we do not distinguish in the future good demand. Hence, through exploring former statistics and recent market statistics, we envisage the forthcoming claim and building of individual goods, which are extra challenging in the near future. As a result of this, we are producing the required products in pursuance of the petition of the souk in advance. We will be using several machine learning models to test the exactness and then lastly, train the whole data by Using linear regression and fitting the training data into it. Accuracy is 8.88%. The extra trees regression model gives the best accuracy of 97.15%.

Keywords: random forest algorithm, linear regression algorithm, extra trees classifier, mean absolute error

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
327 Towards the Unification of Hijri Calendar: A Study in the Application of Hilal Visibility Criteria According to the Agreement of Four Religious Ministers in Southeast Asia

Authors: Abdul Mufid

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This study aims to integrate hadith, astronomy, and sociology studies in studying the accelerated implementation of the unification of the Hijri calendar through a multidisciplinary approach. The Hijri calendar is compiled based on the astronomical phenomena of regular movements of the earth, moon, and sun. Meanwhile, for the implementation of worship, the Hijri calendar must refer to the provisions of Islamic law or fiqh. To set the Hijri calendar, agreement on the criteria for the visibility of the new moon (first crescent), date limits, and absolute authority is required. Agreement on visibility criteria requires a valid basis for astronomical studies. Agreement on territorial boundaries is necessary because our earth is round, and the new moon cannot be observed simultaneously. And the agreement of the authorities is also needed to resolve unavoidable differences, especially differences in the appearance of the new moon and differences in schools of thought. The research is based on astronomical data, the experiences of Indonesia and Islamic countries regarding the Hijri calendar, in-depth and focused interviews with various sources, as well as a review of hadith literature. The results of the study show that the implementation of the unification of the Hijri calendar through the three approaches above can be carried out and can be accelerated.

Keywords: calendar unification, new moon (hilal) visibility, multidisciplinary approach, the unity of the Muslims

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
326 Hydroxyapatite from Biowaste for the Reinforcement of Polymer

Authors: John O. Akindoyo, M. D. H. Beg, Suriati Binti Ghazali, Nitthiyah Jeyaratnam

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Regeneration of bone due to the many health challenges arising from traumatic effects of bone loss, bone tumours and other bone infections is fast becoming indispensable. Over the period of time, some approaches have been undertaken to mitigate this challenge. This includes but not limited to xenografts, allografts, autografts as well as artificial substitutions like bioceramics, synthetic cements and metals. However, most of these techniques often come along with peculiar limitation and problems such as morbidity, availability, disease transmission, collateral site damage or absolute rejection by the body as the case may be. Hydroxyapatite (HA) is very compatible and suitable for this application. However, most of the common methods for HA synthesis are expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Extraction of HA from bio-wastes have been perceived not only to be cost effective, but also environment-friendly. In this research, HA was produced from bio-waste: namely bovine bones through a combination of hydrothermal chemical processes and ordinary calcination techniques. Structure and property of the HA was carried out through different characterization techniques (such as TGA, FTIR, DSC, XRD and BET). The synthesized HA was found to possess similar properties to stoichiometric HA with highly desirable thermal, degradation, structural and porous properties. This material is unique for its potential minimal cost, environmental friendliness and property controllability. It is also perceived to be suitable for tissue and bone engineering applications.

Keywords: biomaterial, biopolymer, bone, hydroxyapatite

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
325 Generalized Correlation for the Condensation and Evaporation Heat Transfer Coefficients of Propane (R290), Butane (R600), R134a, and R407c in Porous Horizontal Tubes: Experimental Investigation

Authors: M. Tarawneh

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This work is an experimental study on the heat transfer characteristics and pressure drop of different refrigerants during the condensation and evaporation processes in porous media. Four different refrigerants (R134a, R407C, 600a, R290), with different porosities were used to reach a real understanding of the actual heat transfer characteristics and pressure drop when using porous material inside the condenser and evaporator. Steel balls were used as porous media with different porosities (38%, 43%, 48%). The main goal of this project is to enhance the heat transfer coefficient during the condensation and evaporation processes when using different refrigerants and different porosities. Different correlations for the heat transfer coefficient and the pressure drop of the different refrigerants were developed. Also a generalized empirical correlation was developed for the different refrigerants. The experimental and predicted heat transfer coefficients and pressure drops were compared. It was found that, the Absolute standard deviation for the heat transfer coefficient and the pressure drop not exceeded values of 15% and 20%, respectively.

Keywords: condensation, evaporation, porous media, horizontal tubes, heat transfer coefficient, propane, butane

Procedia PDF Downloads 504
324 Nonlinear Homogenized Continuum Approach for Determining Peak Horizontal Floor Acceleration of Old Masonry Buildings

Authors: Andreas Rudisch, Ralf Lampert, Andreas Kolbitsch

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It is a well-known fact among the engineering community that earthquakes with comparatively low magnitudes can cause serious damage to nonstructural components (NSCs) of buildings, even when the supporting structure performs relatively well. Past research works focused mainly on NSCs of nuclear power plants and industrial plants. Particular attention should also be given to architectural façade elements of old masonry buildings (e.g. ornamental figures, balustrades, vases), which are very vulnerable under seismic excitation. Large numbers of these historical nonstructural components (HiNSCs) can be found in highly frequented historical city centers and in the event of failure, they pose a significant danger to persons. In order to estimate the vulnerability of acceleration sensitive HiNSCs, the peak horizontal floor acceleration (PHFA) is used. The PHFA depends on the dynamic characteristics of the building, the ground excitation, and induced nonlinearities. Consequently, the PHFA can not be generalized as a simple function of height. In the present research work, an extensive case study was conducted to investigate the influence of induced nonlinearity on the PHFA for old masonry buildings. Probabilistic nonlinear FE time-history analyses considering three different hazard levels were performed. A set of eighteen synthetically generated ground motions was used as input to the structure models. An elastoplastic macro-model (multiPlas) for nonlinear homogenized continuum FE-calculation was calibrated to multiple scales and applied, taking specific failure mechanisms of masonry into account. The macro-model was calibrated according to the results of specific laboratory and cyclic in situ shear tests. The nonlinear macro-model is based on the concept of multi-surface rate-independent plasticity. Material damage or crack formation are detected by reducing the initial strength after failure due to shear or tensile stress. As a result, shear forces can only be transmitted to a limited extent by friction when the cracking begins. The tensile strength is reduced to zero. The first goal of the calibration was the consistency of the load-displacement curves between experiment and simulation. The calibrated macro-model matches well with regard to the initial stiffness and the maximum horizontal load. Another goal was the correct reproduction of the observed crack image and the plastic strain activities. Again the macro-model proved to work well in this case and shows very good correlation. The results of the case study show that there is significant scatter in the absolute distribution of the PHFA between the applied ground excitations. An absolute distribution along the normalized building height was determined in the framework of probability theory. It can be observed that the extent of nonlinear behavior varies for the three hazard levels. Due to the detailed scope of the present research work, a robust comparison with code-recommendations and simplified PHFA distributions are possible. The chosen methodology offers a chance to determine the distribution of PHFA along the building height of old masonry structures. This permits a proper hazard assessment of HiNSCs under seismic loads.

Keywords: nonlinear macro-model, nonstructural components, time-history analysis, unreinforced masonry

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323 National Agency for Control of HIV/AIDS and International Response to its Scourge in Nigeria, 2000-2010

Authors: Ugwu Blessing Nkiruka

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This paper seeks to examine Nigerian National Agency for the control of AIDS (NACA) and international response to the control of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria. The paper adopted the Functionalist theory alongside Liberalism and Idealism, but anchored extensively on functionalism. On the response of HIV/AIDS, Functionalist theory advocated for international corporation of both intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations as the basis for the reduction of the virus. the study adopted secondary source of data i.e journals, articles, newspapers and policy briefs to discuss the reduction of the pandemic (HIV/AIDS).This paper discovered that although HIV/AIDS is a global threat, especially to developing countries where the prevalence rate is still very high, yet international governmental and non-governmental organisation have been able to collaborate with National agencies like NACA in Nigeria and respond speedily through diverse initiatives and action plans to curb the spread of the virus. The study therefore recommends greater awareness on testing and early introduction of antiretroviral therapy, proper screening of blood before transfusion, absolute faithfulness among partners. Similarly, sharing of sharp objects like needles, knives and syringes should be avoided at all cost.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, developing countries, Nigeria, international organizations, NACA

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
322 A Propose of Personnel Assessment Method Including a Two-Way Assessment for Evaluating Evaluators and Employees

Authors: Shunsuke Saito, Kazuho Yoshimoto, Shunichi Ohmori, Sirawadee Arunyanart

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In this paper, we suggest a mechanism of assessment that rater and Ratee (or employees) to convince. There are many problems exist in the personnel assessment. In particular, we were focusing on the three. (1) Raters are not sufficiently recognized assessment point. (2) Ratee are not convinced by the mechanism of assessment. (3) Raters (or Evaluators) and ratees have empathy. We suggest 1: Setting of "understanding of the assessment points." 2: Setting of "relative assessment ability." 3: Proposal of two-way assessment mechanism to solve these problems. As a prerequisite, it is assumed that there are multiple raters. This is because has been a growing importance of multi-faceted assessment. In this model, it determines the weight of each assessment point evaluators by the degree of understanding and assessment ability of raters and ratee. We used the ANP (Analytic Network Process) is a theory that an extension of the decision-making technique AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). ANP can be to address the problem of forming a network and assessment of Two-Way is possible. We apply this technique personnel assessment, the weights of rater of each point can be reasonably determined. We suggest absolute assessment for Two-Way assessment by ANP. We have verified that the consent of the two approaches is higher than conventional mechanism. Also, human resources consultant we got a comment about the application of the practice.

Keywords: personnel evaluation, pairwise comparison, analytic network process (ANP), two-ways

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
321 Methaheuristic Bat Algorithm in Training of Feed-Forward Neural Network for Stock Price Prediction

Authors: Marjan Golmaryami, Marzieh Behzadi

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Recent developments in stock exchange highlight the need for an efficient and accurate method that helps stockholders make better decision. Since stock markets have lots of fluctuations during the time and different effective parameters, it is difficult to make good decisions. The purpose of this study is to employ artificial neural network (ANN) which can deal with time series data and nonlinear relation among variables to forecast next day stock price. Unlike other evolutionary algorithms which were utilized in stock exchange prediction, we trained our proposed neural network with metaheuristic bat algorithm, with fast and powerful convergence and applied it in stock price prediction for the first time. In order to prove the performance of the proposed method, this research selected a 7 year dataset from Parsian Bank stocks and after imposing data preprocessing, used 3 types of ANN (back propagation-ANN, particle swarm optimization-ANN and bat-ANN) to predict the closed price of stocks. Afterwards, this study engaged MATLAB to simulate 3 types of ANN, with the scoring target of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results may be adapted to other companies stocks too.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), bat algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 523
320 Comparison Between a Droplet Digital PCR and Real Time PCR Method in Quantification of HBV DNA

Authors: Surangrat Srisurapanon, Chatchawal Wongjitrat, Navin Horthongkham, Ruengpung Sutthent

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HBV infection causes a potential serious public health problem. The ability to detect the HBV DNA concentration is of the importance and improved continuously. By using quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR), several factors in standardized; source of material, calibration standard curve and PCR efficiency are inconsistent. Digital PCR (dPCR) is an alternative PCR-based technique for absolute quantification using Poisson's statistics without requiring a standard curve. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the data set of HBV DNA generated between dPCR and qPCR methods. All samples were quantified by Abbott’s real time PCR and 54 samples with 2 -6 log10 HBV DNA were selected for comparison with dPCR. Of these 54 samples, there were two outlier samples defined as negative by dPCR. Of these two, samples were defined as negative by dPCR, whereas 52 samples were positive by both the tests. The difference between the two assays was less than 0.25 log IU/mL in 24/52 samples (46%) of paired samples; less than 0.5 log IU/mL in 46/52 samples (88%) and less than 1 log in 50/52 samples (96%). The correlation coefficient was r=0.788 and P-value <0.0001. Comparison to qPCR, data generated by dPCR tend to be the overestimation in the sample with low HBV DNA concentration and underestimated in the sample with high viral load. The variation in DNA by dPCR measurement might be due to the pre-amplification bias, template. Moreover, a minor drawback of dPCR is the large quantity of DNA had to be used when compare to the qPCR. Since the technology is relatively new, the limitations of this assay will be improved.

Keywords: hepatitis B virus, real time PCR, digital PCR, DNA quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
319 Modeling of Daily Global Solar Radiation Using Ann Techniques: A Case of Study

Authors: Said Benkaciali, Mourad Haddadi, Abdallah Khellaf, Kacem Gairaa, Mawloud Guermoui

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In this study, many experiments were carried out to assess the influence of the input parameters on the performance of multilayer perceptron which is one the configuration of the artificial neural networks. To estimate the daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface, we have developed some models by using seven combinations of twelve meteorological and geographical input parameters collected from a radiometric station installed at Ghardaïa city (southern of Algeria). For selecting of best combination which provides a good accuracy, six statistical formulas (or statistical indicators) have been evaluated, such as the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, correlation coefficient, and determination coefficient. We noted that multilayer perceptron techniques have the best performance, except when the sunshine duration parameter is not included in the input variables. The maximum of determination coefficient and correlation coefficient are equal to 98.20 and 99.11%. On the other hand, some empirical models were developed to compare their performances with those of multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results obtained show that the neural networks techniques give the best performance compared to the empirical models.

Keywords: empirical models, multilayer perceptron neural network, solar radiation, statistical formulas

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318 High Order Block Implicit Multi-Step (Hobim) Methods for the Solution of Stiff Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: J. P. Chollom, G. M. Kumleng, S. Longwap

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The search for higher order A-stable linear multi-step methods has been the interest of many numerical analysts and has been realized through either higher derivatives of the solution or by inserting additional off step points, supper future points and the likes. These methods are suitable for the solution of stiff differential equations which exhibit characteristics that place a severe restriction on the choice of step size. It becomes necessary that only methods with large regions of absolute stability remain suitable for such equations. In this paper, high order block implicit multi-step methods of the hybrid form up to order twelve have been constructed using the multi-step collocation approach by inserting one or more off step points in the multi-step method. The accuracy and stability properties of the new methods are investigated and are shown to yield A-stable methods, a property desirable of methods suitable for the solution of stiff ODE’s. The new High Order Block Implicit Multistep methods used as block integrators are tested on stiff differential systems and the results reveal that the new methods are efficient and compete favourably with the state of the art Matlab ode23 code.

Keywords: block linear multistep methods, high order, implicit, stiff differential equations

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317 An Assessment of the Hip Muscular Imbalance for Patients with Rheumatism

Authors: Anthony Bawa, Konstantinos Banitsas

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Rheumatism is a muscular disorder that affects the muscles of the upper and lower limbs. This condition could potentially progress to impair the movement of patients. This study aims to investigate the hip muscular imbalance in patients with chronic rheumatism. A clinical trial involving a total of 15 participants, made up of 10 patients and 5 control subjects, took place in KATH Hospital between August and September. Participants recruited for the study were of age 54 ± 8years, weight 65± 8kg, and height 176 ± 8cm. Muscle signals were recorded from the rectus femoris, and vastus lateralis on the right and left hip of participants. The parameters used in determining the hip muscular imbalances were the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC%), the mean difference, and hip muscle fatigue levels. The mean signals were compared using a t-test, and the metrics for muscle fatigue assessment were based on the root mean square (RMS), mean absolute value (MAV) and mean frequency (MEF), which were computed between the hip muscles of participants. The results indicated that there were significant imbalances in the muscle coactivity between the right and left hip muscles of patients. The patients’ MVC values were observed to be above 10% when compared with control subjects. Furthermore, the mean difference was seen to be higher with p > 0.002 among patients, which indicated clear differences in the hip muscle contraction activities. The findings indicate significant hip muscular imbalances for patients with rheumatism compared with control subjects. Information about the imbalances among patients will be useful for clinicians in designing therapeutic muscle-strengthening exercises.

Keywords: muscular, imbalances, rheumatism, Hip

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316 Improve Closed Loop Performance and Control Signal Using Evolutionary Algorithms Based PID Controller

Authors: Mehdi Shahbazian, Alireza Aarabi, Mohsen Hadiyan

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Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers are the most widely used controllers in industry because of its simplicity and robustness. Different values of PID parameters make different step response, so an increasing amount of literature is devoted to proper tuning of PID controllers. The problem merits further investigation as traditional tuning methods make large control signal that can damages the system but using evolutionary algorithms based tuning methods improve the control signal and closed loop performance. In this paper three tuning methods for PID controllers have been studied namely Ziegler and Nichols, which is traditional tuning method and evolutionary algorithms based tuning methods, that are, Genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. To examine the validity of PSO and GA tuning methods a comparative analysis of DC motor plant is studied. Simulation results reveal that evolutionary algorithms based tuning method have improved control signal amplitude and quality factors of the closed loop system such as rise time, integral absolute error (IAE) and maximum overshoot.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithm, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, PID controller

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315 The Rendering of Sex-Related Expressions by Court Interpreters in Hong Kong: A Corpus-Based Approach

Authors: Yee Yan Crystal Kwong

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The essence of rape is the absence of consent to sexual intercourse. Yet, the definition of consent is not absolute and allows for subjectivity. In this case, the accuracy of oral interpretation becomes very important as the narratives of events and situation, as well as the register and style of speakers would influence the juror decision making. This paper first adopts a corpus-based approach to investigate how court interpreters in Hong Kong handle expressions that refer to sexual activities. The data of this study will be based on online corpus :From legislation to translation, from translation to interpretation: The narrative of sexual offences. The corpus comprises the transcription of five separate rape trials and all of these trials were heard with the presence of an interpreter. Since there are plenty of sex-related expressions used by witnesses and defendants in the five cases, emphasis will be put on those which have an impact on the definition of rape. With an in-depth analysis of the interpreted utterances, different interpreting approaches will be identified to observe how interpreters retain the intended meanings. Interviews with experienced court interpreters will also be conducted to revisit the validity of the traditional verbatim standard. At the end of this research, various interpreting approaches will be compared and evaluated. A redefinition of interpreters' institutional role, as well as recommendations for interpreting learners will be provided.

Keywords: court interpreting, interpreters, legal translation, slangs

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
314 Study on the Effect of Bolt Locking Method on the Deformation of Bipolar Plate in PEMFC

Authors: Tao Chen, ShiHua Liu, JiWei Zhang

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Assembly of the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) has a very important influence on its performance and efficiency. The various components of PEMFC stack are usually locked and fixed by bolts. Locking bolt will cause the deformation of the bipolar plate and the other components, which will affect directly the deformation degree of the integral parts of the PEMFC as well as the performance of PEMFC. This paper focuses on the object of three-cell stack of PEMFC. Finite element simulation is used to investigate the deformation of bipolar plate caused by quantity and layout of bolts, bolt locking pressure, and bolt locking sequence, etc. Finally, we made a conclusion that the optimal combination packaging scheme was adopted to assemble the fuel cell stack. The scheme was in use of 3.8 MPa locking pressure imposed on the fuel cell stack, type Ⅱ of four locking bolts and longitudinal locking method. The scheme was obtained by comparatively analyzing the overall displacement contour of PEMFC stack, absolute displacement curve of bipolar plate along the given three paths in the Z direction and the polarization curve of fuel cell. The research results are helpful for the fuel cell stack assembly.

Keywords: bipolar plate, deformation, finite element simulation, fuel cell, locking bolt

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313 The Correlation of Total Phenol Content with Free Radicals Scavenging Activity and Effect of Ethanol Concentration in Extraction Process of Mangosteen Rind (Garcinia mangostana)

Authors: Ririn Lestari Sri Rahayu, Mustofa Ahda

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The use of synthetic antioxidants often causes a negative effect on health and increases the incidence of carcinogenesis. Development of the natural antioxidants should be investigated. However, natural antioxidants have a low toxicity and are safe for human consumption. Ethanol extract of mangosteen rind (Garcinia mangostana) contains natural antioxidant compounds that have various pharmacological activities. Antioxidants from the ethanol extract of mangosteen rind have free radicals scavenging activities. The scavenging activity of ethanol extract of mangosteen rind was determined by DPPH method. The phenolic compound from the ethanol extract of mangosteen rind is determined with Folin-Ciocalteu method. The results showed that the absolute ethanol extract of mangosteen rind has IC50 of 40.072 ug/mL. The correlation of total phenols content with free radical scavenging activity has an equation y: 5.207x + 205.51 and determination value (R2) of 0.9329. Total phenols content from the ethanol extract of mangosteen rind has a good correlation with free radicals scavenging activity of DPPH.

Keywords: Antioxidant, Garcinia mangostana, Inhibition concentration 50%, Phenolic.

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312 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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311 Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at Births for Malaysian Sub-Populations

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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310 Analytical Study of Infidelity in Translation with Reference to Literary Texts

Authors: Ruqaya Sabeeh Al-Taie

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The present study strives to answer the question if translation is sometimes betrayal of the original or not. Such a question emanates from the Italian phrase traduttore-traditore – ‘translator, traitor’ or betrayer, which constitutes a problem for all translators since the lexical words, linguistic structures and cultural terms sometimes do not have literal equivalents in diverse languages. To answer the debated question of fidelity and infidelity in translation, and ascertain the implication of the above Italian phrase, the researcher has collected different kinds of parallel texts which are analyzed to examine the reasons behind the translator’s infidelity in translation in general, and in translating literary texts in particular, and how infidelity can be intended and/or unintended by the translator. It has been found that there are four reasons behind intended infidelity: deliberate adaptation to fit the original, modification for specific purposes, translator’s desire, and unethical translation in favor of government or interest group monopolization; whereas there are also four different motives behind unintended infidelity: translator’s misunderstanding, translator’s sectarianism, intralingual translation, and censorship for political, social and religious purposes. As a result, the investable linguistic and cultural dissimilarities between languages, for instance, between English and Arabic, make absolute fidelity impossible, and infidelity in its two kinds, i.e. intended and unintended, unavoidable.

Keywords: deliberate adaptation, intended infidelity, literary translation, unintended infidelity

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309 Observations of Magnetospheric Ulf Waves in Connection to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability at Mercury

Authors: Elisabet Liljeblad, Tomas Karlsson, Torbjorn Sundberg, Anita Kullen

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The magnetospheric magnetic field data from the MESSENGER spacecraft is investigated to establish the presence of ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in connection to 131 previously observed nonlinear Kelvin-Helmholtz waves (KHWs) at Mercury. Distinct ULF signatures are detected in 44 out of the 131 magnetospheric traversals prior to or after observing a KHW. In particular, 39 of these 44 ULF events are highly coherent at the frequency of maximum power spectral density. The waves observed at the dayside, which appears mainly at the duskside and naturally following the KHW occurrence asymmetry, are significantly different to the events behind the dawn-dusk terminator and have the following distinct wave characteristics: they oscillate clearly in the perpendicular (azimuthal) direction to the mean magnetic field with a wave normal angle more in the parallel than the perpendicular direction, increase in absolute ellipticity with distance from noon, are almost exclusively right-hand polarized, and are observed mainly for frequencies in the range 0.02-0.04 Hz. These results indicate that the dayside ULF waves are likely to shear Alfvén waves driven by KHWs at the magnetopause, which in turn manifests the importance of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in terms of mass transport throughout the Mercury magnetosphere.

Keywords: ultra-low frequency waves, kelvin-Helmholtz instability, magnetospheric processes, mercury, messenger, energy and momentum transfer in planetary environments

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
308 Debussy's Piano Music: Style Characteristics in Three Categories

Authors: Rika Uchida

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Claude Debussy's piano works can be divided into three categories in terms of style characteristics. The first category includes works which are strongly impressionistic, evoking a mood or an atmosphere, rather than making a direct, clear statement. These works often depict nature, and they are descriptive and sensitive in their character. Harmonic vocabulary is often complex, and the sense of tonality is often ambiguous in those works. Examples which belong to this category are ‘Clair de lune’ from Suite Bergamasque, Deux Arabesques, and ‘Reflets dans l'eau’ from Images Book 2. The second category shows little or no trace of impressionism. Works are not descriptive; rather, they are classical or absolute. Examples which belong to this category are Pour le Piano, ‘Hommage à Rameau’ and ‘Movement’ from Images Book 1 and Etudes. The third category can be called exotic. Debussy had a great interest in foreign lands such as the Far and Near East, and Spain. He employs pentatonic and quartal harmonies to describe the Orient, occasionally using the effect of the Javanese gamelan, which impressed him at the Paris Exhibition. His compositions in the Spanish style evoke the atmosphere of Spain. Though he borrowed some techniques from Spanish composers whom he knew, the tonal experimentation which occurs in these works sets them apart. Examples which belong to this category are ‘Pagodes’ and ‘la Soiree dans Grenade’ from Estampes, ‘la Puerta del Vino’ from Preludes Book 2.

Keywords: music, piano, Debussy, style

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307 The Research of Water Levels in the Zhinvali Water Reservoir and Results of Field Research on the Debris Flow Tributaries of the River Tetri Aragvi Flowing in It

Authors: Givi Gavardashvili, Eduard Kukhalashvili, Tamriko Supatashvili, Giorgi Natroshvili, Konstantine Bziava, Irma Qufarashvili

Abstract:

In the article to research water levels in the Zhinvali water reservoirs by field and theoretical research and using GPS and GIS technologies has been established dynamic of water reservoirs changes in the suitable coordinates and has been made water reservoir maps and is lined in the 3D format. By using of GPS coordinates and digital maps has been established water horizons of Zhinvali water reservoir in the absolute marks and has been calculated water levels volume. To forecast the filling of the Zhinvali water reservoir by solid sediment in 2018 conducted field experimental researches in the catchment basin of river Tetri (White) Aragvi. It has been established main hydrological and hydraulic parameters of the active erosion-debris flow tributaries of river Tetri Aragvi. It has been calculated erosion coefficient considering the degradation of the slope. By calculation is determined, that in the river Tetri Aragvi catchment basin the value of 1% maximum discharge changes Q1% = 70,0 – 550,0 m3/sec, and erosion coefficient - E = 0,73 - 1,62, with suitable fifth class of erosion and intensity 50-100 tone/hectare in the year.

Keywords: Zhinvali soil dam, water reservoirs, water levels, erosion, debris flow

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306 Exploring Motivation and Attitude to Second Language Learning in Ugandan Secondary Schools

Authors: Nanyonjo Juliet

Abstract:

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, it’s increasingly becoming an absolute necessity for either parents or governments to encourage learners, most particularly those attending high schools, to study a second or foreign language other than the “official language” or the language of instruction in schools. The major second or foreign languages under consideration include but are not necessarily limited to English, French, German, Arabic, Swahili/Kiswahili, Spanish and Chinese. The benefits of learning a second (foreign) language in the globalized world cannot be underestimated. Amongst others, it has been expounded to especially involve such opportunities related to traveling, studying abroad and widening one’s career prospects. Research has also revealed that beyond these non-cognitive rewards, learning a second language enables learners to become more thoughtful, considerate and confident, make better decisions, keep their brain healthier and generally – speaking, broaden their world views. The methodology of delivering a successful 2nd language – learning process by a professionally qualified teacher is located in motivation. We strongly believe that the psychology involved in teaching a foreign language is of paramount importance to a learner’s successful learning experience. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to explore and show the importance of motivation in the teaching and learning of a given 2nd (foreign) language in the local Ugandan high schools.

Keywords: second language, foreign language, language learning, language teaching, official language, language of instruction, globalized world, cognitive rewards, non-cognitive rewards, learning process, motivation

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305 Modeling Pan Evaporation Using Intelligent Methods of ANN, LSSVM and Tree Model M5 (Case Study: Shahroud and Mayamey Stations)

Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

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The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

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304 The Effect of Mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards Reporting on Investors' Herding Practice: Evidence from Eu Equity Markets

Authors: Mohammed Lawal Danrimi, Ervina Alfan, Mazni Abdullah

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The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) encourages information-based trading and mitigates investors’ herding practice in emerging EU equity markets. Utilizing a modified non-linear model of cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD), we find that the hypothesis that mandatory IFRS adoption improves the information set of investors and reduces irrational investment behavior may in some cases be incorrect, and the reverse may be true. For instance, with regard to herding concerns, the new reporting benchmark has rather aggravated investors’ herding practice. However, we also find that mandatory IFRS adoption does not appear to be the only instigator of the observed herding practice; national institutional factors, particularly regulatory quality, political stability and control of corruption, also significantly contribute to investors’ herd formation around the new reporting regime. The findings would be of interest to academics, regulators and policymakers in performing a cost-benefit analysis of the so-called better reporting regime, as well as financial statement users who make decisions based on firms’ fundamental variables, treating them as significant indicators of future market movement.

Keywords: equity markets, herding, IFRS, CSAD

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303 Rule-Based Mamdani Type Fuzzy Modeling of Performances of Anode Side of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Spin-Coated with Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia

Authors: Sadık Ata, Kevser Dincer

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In this study, performance of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell was experimentally investigated and modelled with Rule-Based Mamdani-Type Fuzzy (RBMTF) modelling technique. Coating on the anode side of the PEM fuel cell was accomplished with the spin method by using Yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ). Input parameters voltage density (V/cm2), and current density (A/cm2), temperature (°C), time (s); output parameter power density (W/cm2) were described by RBMTF if-then rules. Numerical parameters of input and output variables were fuzzificated as linguistic variables: Very Very Low (L1), Very Low (L2), Low (L3), Negative Medium (L4), Medium (L5), Positive Medium (L6), High (L7), Very High (L8) and Very Very High (L9) linguistic classes. The comparison between experimental data and RBMTF is done by using statistical methods like absolute fraction of variance (R2). The actual values and RBMTF results indicated that RBMTF can be successfully used for the analysis of performance of PEM fuel cell.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane (PEM), fuel cell, rule-based Mamdani-type fuzzy (RMBTF) modeling, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ)

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302 Estimation of Optimum Parameters of Non-Linear Muskingum Model of Routing Using Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA)

Authors: Davood Rajabi, Mojgan Yazdani

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Non-linear Muskingum model is an efficient method for flood routing, however, the efficiency of this method is influenced by three applied parameters. Therefore, efficiency assessment of Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA) to evaluate optimum parameters of non-linear Muskingum model was addressed through this study. In addition to ICA, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) were also used aiming at an available criterion to verdict ICA. In this regard, ICA was applied for Wilson flood routing; then, routing of two flood events of DoAab Samsami River was investigated. In case of Wilson flood that the target function was considered as the sum of squared deviation (SSQ) of observed and calculated discharges. Routing two other floods, in addition to SSQ, another target function was also considered as the sum of absolute deviations of observed and calculated discharge. For the first floodwater based on SSQ, GA indicated the best performance, however, ICA was on first place, based on SAD. For the second floodwater, based on both target functions, ICA indicated a better operation. According to the obtained results, it can be said that ICA could be used as an appropriate method to evaluate the parameters of Muskingum non-linear model.

Keywords: Doab Samsami river, genetic algorithm, imperialist competition algorithm, meta-exploratory algorithms, particle swarm optimization, Wilson flood

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301 Groundwater Flow Assessment Based on Numerical Simulation at Omdurman Area, Khartoum State, Sudan

Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 212