Search results for: Rafael Paya Serrano

Authors: Helen Huang, Francisco Javier Quesada Ocet, Blanca Quesada Oce, Javier Jimenez Bello, Victor Palanca Gil, Alba Cervero Rubio, Ana Paya Chaume, Alejandro Herreros-Pomares, Fernando Vidal-Vanaclocha, Rafael Paya Serrano, Aurelio Quesada Dorador, Monica Soliman

Abstract:

Background: Cancer favors both the pro-inflammatory state and autonomic dysfunction, two important mechanisms in the genesis of AF. Atrial remodeling might be caused as a result of paraneoplastic conditions or the result of direct expression of neoplasia. Here, we hypothesize that cancer, through inflammatory mediators, may favor the appearance of AF and patients with the first episode of AF could have a higher risk of developing cancer. Method: Data was collected from patients who attended the emergency department of our hospital for the first episode of AF, diagnosed electrocardiographically, between 2010-2015 (n = 712). The minimum follow-up was 2 years, recording the appearance of cancer, total mortality, recurrences of AF and other events. Patients who developed cancer and those who did not during the 2 years after the onset of AF were compared, as well as with the incidence of cancer in Spain in 2012. Results: After 2 years, 35 patients (4.91%) were diagnosed with cancer, with an annual incidence of 2.45%. Hematological neoplasms were the most frequent (34.28%). The cancer group was older (76.68 +/-12.75 years vs 74.16 +/-12.71; p <0.05) and had fewer typical symptoms (palpitations) (33.38% vs 14.28% , p <0.05). The incidence of cancer in Spain during 2012 was 0.46%, much lower than our sample. When comparing the incidence by age, these differences were maintained both in those over 65 years of age and in those under 65 years of age (2.17% vs. 0.28%; 0.28% vs. 0.18% respectively). Discussion: Therefore, a high incidence of cancer in patients with the first episode of AF was observed (the annual incidence of 2.45% after the onset of AF is 6.1 times that of the general population). After the evaluation of patients with AF in their first detected episode, surveillance of the appearance of cancer should be considered in clinical practice.

Keywords: cancer, cardiovascular outcomes, atrial fibrillation, inflammation

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Authors: Edmar N. Franquera, Renato C. Mabesa, Rene Rafael C. Espino, Edralina P. Serrano, Eduardo P. Paningbatan Jr.

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The potential of growing lettuce with different colored plastic mulch silver (control), red, orange, yellow and green was evaluated using two lettuce varieties, Looseleaf and Romaine. The experiment was laid out on split plot design following the Randomized Complete Block Design. The Looseleaf variety had better performance in terms of plant fresh weight, leaf fresh weight, leaf dry weight, root length, plant height and yield. However, better response was observed in Romaine in terms of leaf diameter, leaf length, root dry weight and root fresh weight. The color of the mulch reflected different qualities of light and hence the quality of absorbed light by the lettuce plants. A higher Far red and red ratio (FR:R) was obtained from green plastic mulch which was followed by the red plastic mulch. The different colored plastic mulch affected the growth and developmental responses of leaf lettuce morphological and leaf anatomical characteristics. Data in all growth morphological and yield parameters showed that those grown with red plastic mulch had better response and had longer stomates than those lettuce grown with the other colored plastic mulch. The soil temperature 10 cm below the plastic mulch was significantly influenced by the color of the mulch. The red plastic mulch had the highest soil temperature recorded while the lowest soil temperature recorded was within the yellow plastic mulch.

Keywords: anatomical, lettuce, morpholological, plastic mulch

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Authors: Rafael Marinho de Andrade, Elcio Hideti Shiguemori, Rafael Duarte Coelho dos Santos

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Relying on computer vision, many clever things are possible in order to make the world safer and optimized on resource management, especially considering time and attention as manageable resources, once the modern world is very abundant in cameras from inside our pockets to above our heads while crossing the streets. Thus, automated solutions based on computer vision techniques to detect, react, or even prevent relevant events such as robbery, car crashes and traffic jams can be accomplished and implemented for the sake of both logistical and surveillance improvements. In this paper, we present an approach for vehicles’ abnormal behaviors detection from highway footages, in which the vectorial data of the vehicles’ displacement are extracted directly from surveillance cameras footage through object detection and tracking with a deep convolutional neural network and inserted into a long-short term memory neural network for behavior classification. The results show that the classifications of behaviors are consistent and the same principles may be applied to other trackable objects and scenarios as well.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, behavior detection, computer vision, convolutional neural networks, LSTM, highway footage

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Authors: Luis Javier Serrano-Tamayo

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This paper focuses on the recent interest in the concept of inclusion from multiple areas of social sciences, but particularly from the academic studies on what do scholars mean when they refer to inclusive education. Therefore, this paper has been based on a three-year systematic review of near two hundred peer-reviewed documents in the last two decades. The results illustrate some of the use, misuse, and abuse of inclusive education as well as shed some light on the identification of the different stakeholders involved in the dynamic concept of inclusive education and their suggested practices.

Keywords: inclusion, inclusive education, inclusive practices, education stakeholders

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Authors: Rafael Feldmann Farias, Fernando Tobal Berssaneti

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Since its emergence in 1998, ISO 10014 has been developed as a response to the need to demonstrate the economic and financial benefits that an organization can obtain from the implementation of a quality management system. With the publication of the new edition in 2021, this article aims to identify how this standard has been addressed through a literature review. Among the results, it was found that, of the 282 documents identified, only 0.7% of the publications used the standard and 1.4% of the publications cited it. This low adherence seems to be linked to the highly technical nature of the content of the standard.

Keywords: quality management system, ISO 10014, economical benefits, financial benefits

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Authors: Taras Agryzkov, Almudena Nolasco-Cirugeda, Jose L. Oliver, Leticia Serrano-Estrada, Leandro Tortosa, Jose F. Vicent

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This paper aims to represent the commercial activity of a city taking as source data the social network Foursquare. The city of Murcia is selected as case study, and the location-based social network Foursquare is the main source of information. After carrying out a reorganisation of the user-generated data extracted from Foursquare, it is possible to graphically display on a map the various city spaces and venues –especially those related to commercial, food and entertainment sector businesses. The obtained visualisation provides information about activity patterns in the city of Murcia according to the people`s interests and preferences and, moreover, interesting facts about certain characteristics of the town itself.

Keywords: social networks, spatial analysis, data visualization, geocomputation, Foursquare

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Authors: Martha Serrano-Arias, Martha Frías-Armenta

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Significant results have been found both supporting universality of emotion recognition and cultural background influence. Thus, the aim of this research was to test a Mexican version of the MTSI in different cultures to find differences in their performance. The MTSI-Mx assesses through a scenario approach were subjects must evaluate real persons. Two target persons were used for the construction, a man (FS) and a woman (AD). The items were grouped in four variables: Picture, Video, and FS and AD scenarios. The test was applied to 201 students from Mexico and Germany. T-test for picture and FS scenario show no significance. Video and AD had a significance at the 5% level. Results show slight differences between cultures, although a more comprehensive research is needed to conclude which culture can perform better in this kind of assessments.

Keywords: emotion recognition, MTSI, social intelligence, transcultural study

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Authors: Luis Javier Serrano Tamayo

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This research on technology makes a first approach to the selection of an amphibious landing ship with strategic capabilities, through the implementation of a multi-criteria model using Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), in which a significant group of alternatives of latest technology has been considered. The variables were grouped at different levels to match design and performance characteristics, which affect the lifecycle as well as the acquisition, maintenance and operational costs. The model yielded an overall measure of effectiveness and an overall measure of cost of each kind of ship that was compared each other inside the model and showed in a Pareto chart. The modeling was developed using the Expert Choice software, based on AHP method.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision-making, Pareto analysis, Colombian Marine Corps, projection operations, expert choice, amphibious landing ship

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Authors: Benyamin Ahmadnia, Javier Serrano

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In this paper we compare two different approaches for translating from Persian to Spanish, as a language pair with scarce parallel corpus. The first approach involves direct transfer using an statistical machine translation system, which is available for this language pair. The second approach involves translation through English, as a pivot language, which has more translation resources and more advanced translation systems available. The results show that, it is possible to achieve better translation quality using English as a pivot language in either approach outperforms direct translation from Persian to Spanish. Our best result is the pivot system which scores higher than direct translation by (1.12) BLEU points.

Keywords: statistical machine translation, direct translation approach, pivot language translation approach, parallel corpus

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Authors: Daniel Tarrazó-Serrano, Sergio Pérez-López, Sergio Castiñeira-Ibáñez, Pilar Candelas, Constanza Rubio

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Zone Plates (ZPs) are used in many areas of physics where planar fabrication is advantageous in comparison with conventional curved lenses. There are several types of ZPs, such as the well-known Fresnel ZPs or the more recent Fractal ZPs and Fibonacci ZPs. The material selection of the lens plays a very important role in the beam modulation control. This work presents a comparison between two Fresnel ZP made from different materials in the ultrasound domain: Polylactic Acid (PLA) and brass. PLA is the most common material used in commercial 3D-printers due to its high design flexibility and low cost. Numerical simulations based on Finite Element Method (FEM) and experimental results are shown, and they prove that the focusing capabilities of brass ZPs and PLA ZPs are similar. For this reason, PLA is proposed as a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) compatible material with great potential for therapeutic ultrasound focusing applications.

Keywords: FZP, PLA, focus, ultrasound, MRI

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Authors: Matheus Nunes, Rafael Mendes, Taygoara Felamingo Oliveira, Antonio Brasil Junior

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Wind tunnel experiments of horizontal axis propeller hydrokinetic turbines model were carried out, in order to determine the performance behavior for different configurations and operational range. The present experiments introduce the use of two different geometries of rear diffusers to enhance the performance of the free flow machine. The present paper reports an increase of the power coefficient about 50%-80%. It represents an important feature that has to be taken into account in the design of this kind of machine.

Keywords: diffuser-enhanced turbines, hydrokinetic turbine, wind tunnel experiments, micro hydro

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Authors: X. Gumara Rigol, I. Martínez de Apellaniz Anzuola, A. Garcia Serrano, A. Franzi Cros, O. Vidal Calbet, A. Al Maruf

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Traditional federated architectures for data warehousing work well when corporations have existing regional data warehouses and there is a need to aggregate data at a global level. Schibsted Media Group has been maturing from a decentralised organisation into a more globalised one and needed to build both some of the regional data warehouses for some brands at the same time as the global one. In this paper, we present the architectural alternatives studied and why a custom federated approach was the notable recommendation to go further with the implementation. Although the data warehouses are logically federated, the implementation uses a single database system which presented many advantages like: cost reduction and improved data access to global users allowing consumers of the data to have a common data model for detailed analysis across different geographies and a flexible layer for local specific needs in the same place.

Keywords: data integration, data warehousing, federated architecture, Online Analytical Processing (OLAP)

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Authors: Rafael Ricieri, Rogerio Barros, Francisco Clovis

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Objective– The Objective of this is study is to report a rare case of dermoid cyst, with a sublingual location and cutaneous fistula in a 4 year-old child.Methods: This study is a case report. The main study instrument was the medical record and the radiological and intraoperative image bank. Results: Infants with congenital cervical lesions eventually need tomography for diagnostic elucidation, and health services should be structured to perform sedation and thin tomographic sections in order to reduce morbidity.

Keywords: congenital, sublingual dermoid cyst, fistula, pediatric surgery, head and kneck surgery

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Authors: José Eugenio Ortiz, Pierre Plaza, Josefa Herrero, Iván Cabria, José Luis Blanco, Javier Gavilanes, José Ignacio Escavy, Ignacio López-Cilla, Virginia Yagüe, César Pérez, Silvia Rodríguez, Jorge Rico, Cecilia Serrano, Jesús Bernat

Abstract:

The development of Artificial Intelligence services in mining processes, specifically in aggregate quarries, is facilitating automation and improving numerous aspects of operations. Ultimately, AI is transforming the mining industry by improving efficiency, safety and sustainability. With the ability to analyze large amounts of data and make autonomous decisions, AI offers great opportunities to optimize mining operations and maximize the economic and social benefits of this vital industry. Within the framework of the European DIGIECOQUARRY project, various services were developed for the identification of material quality, production estimation, detection of anomalies and prediction of consumption and production automatically with good results.

Keywords: aggregates, artificial intelligence, automatization, mining operations

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Authors: Sergio Pérez-López, Daniel Tarrazó-Serrano, José M. Fuster, Pilar Candelas, Constanza Rubio

Abstract:

Fresnel Zone Plates (FZPs) are widely used in many areas, such as optics, microwaves or acoustics. On the design of FZPs, plane wave incidence is typically considered, but that is not usually the case in ultrasounds, especially in applications where a piston emitter is placed at a certain distance from the lens. In these cases, having control of the focal distance is very important, and with the usual Fresnel equation a focal displacement from the theoretical distance is observed due to the plane wave supposition. In this work, a comparison between FZP with plane wave incidence design and FZP with point source design in the case of piston emitter is presented. Influence of the main parameters of the piston in the final focalization profile has been studied. Numerical models and experimental results are shown, and they prove that when spherical wave incidence is considered for the piston case, it is possible to have a fine control of the focal distance in comparison with the classical design method.

Keywords: focusing, Fresnel zone plates, FZP, ultrasound

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the port logistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: port governance, model, Port of Santos, managers’ perception

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Authors: Cesar Maximo Oliva González, Javier Acevedo Cortez, Boris Kharisov, Thelma Serrano Quezada

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The importance of the crude oil refining process is due to the demand for petroleum products such as gasoline, kerosene, asphalt, etc., which are used in daily activities and have a high impact on the global economy. In the processes of oil obtaining and refining, it is common to find problems such as spills on seabed and high energy consumption in processing. In order to quickly and efficiently attack these problems, the use of adsorbents has taken on great importance due to its ease of implementation, as well as the possibility of their regeneration to be reused. In this work, the use of two types of adsorbents is proposed: the first is a natural adsorbent such as aloe vera or nopal, which were lyophilized and hydrophobized to achieve a selectivity in oil adsorption in oil / water mixtures. The second is a mixed iron/nickel oxide, which is specially designed to adsorb the asphaltenes in the heavy fractions of the oil; in addition, this type of adsorbents presents catalytic properties that manage to decompose the heavier fractions of the petroleum in light hydrocarbons, descending thus the energy required for the oil refining process.

Keywords: nanomaterials, oil spills, remediation, natural adsorbents, mixed oxides

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Authors: Edward Guillén, Jhordany Rodriguez, Rafael Páez

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Anomaly detection techniques have been focused on two main components: data extraction and selection and the second one is the analysis performed over the obtained data. The goal of this paper is to analyze the influence that each of these components has over the system performance by evaluating detection over network scenarios with different setups. The independent variables are as follows: the number of system inputs, the way the inputs are codified and the complexity of the analysis techniques. For the analysis, some approaches of artificial neural networks are implemented with different number of layers. The obtained results show the influence that each of these variables has in the system performance.

Keywords: network intrusion detection, machine learning, artificial neural network, anomaly detection module

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Authors: María Del Mar Ramos-Lorente, Rafael Martínez-Martín

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More than 40 years have passed since the Spanish Constitution in force today was approved in 1978. The period prior to that Constitution, which marked the transition to democracy, was marked by National Catholicism, which actively limited the existence of religions other than Catholicism in the national territory. The approval of this norm allowed the opening in many aspects, including the religious one. This work will profusely describe the evolution of the appearance of religious minorities in Spain from the moment of the transition, in which the space for religious freedom appears up to the present. The methodology is twofold. On the one hand, qualitative analysis of the legislation has allowed the religious opening. On the other, the quantitative analysis of the NMRs implemented in Spain. The entire analysis establishes the increase in religious organizations as a result, with notable variations across the territory.

Keywords: new religious movements, religious minorities, sociological analysis, Spain

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano

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This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.

Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage

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Authors: Rafael Tedrus Bento

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The analysis of proportionality as a test is raised as a basic foundation for the achievement of Fundamental Rights. We used legal dogmatics and empirical analysis to seek the expected results, from the reading of the RV Oakes trial by the Supreme Court of Canada. In cases involving freedom of expression, two tests are used to resolve disputes. The first examines whether, in fact, the case can be characterized as a violation of freedom of expression; the second assesses whether this violation can be justified by the reasonable limit clause. This test was defined in the RV Oakes trial by the Supreme Court of Canada, concluding with the Oakes Test, used worldwide as a proportionality test. Resulting is a proportionality between the effects of the limiting measure and the objective - the more serious the harmful effects of a measure, the more important the objective must be.

Keywords: Oakes, proportionality, fundamental rights, Supreme Court of Canada

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Authors: Rafael Dias Silva

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The school is a social institution that should promote learning situations that remain throughout life. Based on this, the teaching activities promoted in museum spaces can represent an educational strategy that contributes to the learning process in a more meaningful way. This article systematizes a series of elements that guide the use of these spaces for the scientific literacy of deaf students and as experiences of this nature are favorable for the school development through the concept of the circularity. The methodology for the didactic use of these spaces of non-formal education is one of the reflections developed in this study and how such environments can contribute to the learning in the classroom. To develop in the student the idea of ​​association making him create connections with the curricular proposal and notice how the proposed activity is articulated. It is in our interest that the experience lived in the museum be shared collaborating for the construction of a scientific literacy and cultural identity through the research.

Keywords: accessibility in museums, Brazilian sign language, deaf students, teacher training

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Authors: Hossein Keshavarz, Alejandro Ramirez-Serrano

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Energy efficiency and locomotion speed are two key parameters for legged robots; thus, finding ways to improve them are important. This paper proposes a locomotion framework to analyze the energy usage and speed of quadruped robots via a Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization process. For this, a quadruped robot platform with joint redundancy in its hind legs that we believe will help multi-legged robots improve their speed and energy consumption is used. ContinuO, the quadruped robot of interest, has 14 active degrees of freedom (DoFs), including three DoFs for each front leg, and unlike previously developed quadruped robots, four DoFs for each hind leg. ContinuO aims to realize a cost-effective quadruped robot for real-world scenarios with high speeds and the ability to overcome large obstructions. The proposed framework is used to locomote the robot and analyze its energy consumed at diverse stride lengths and locomotion speeds. The analysis is performed by comparing the obtained results in two modes, with and without the joint redundancy on the robot’s hind legs.

Keywords: genetic algorithm optimization, locomotion path planning, quadruped robots, redundant legs

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Authors: Lucas Oliveira Gomes Ferreira, André Luiz Marques Serrano

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The fiscal decentralization driven by the 1988 Constitution was responsible for granting greater autonomy to Brazilian subnational entities, as states and municipalities were entrusted with greater responsibilities to provide local public goods and services. However, the revenues necessary to implement the new attributions are largely received through intergovernmental transfers and not by local tax collection. The literature points out that public spending increases more by receiving unconditional and nonmatching (lump sum) intergovernmental grants than by an increase in taxpayers' income. This effect, called the flypaper effect, happens because the funds received could be used to reduce local taxes, meaning an increase in the citizen's private income. However, they are applied in the public sector in the form of expenses. The present work investigates the existence of the flypaper effect in Brazilian municipalities during the first two decades of the 21st century. The research uses the Municipal Participation Fund (FPM) as a grant proxy from 2000 to 2019 through econometrics of cross-section and panel data for all 5,568 municipalities. The results indicate the flypaper effect in Brazilian municipalities, as well as the proportional relationship between the receipt of constitutional transfers and the increase in public expenditure.

Keywords: flypaper effect, intergovernmental transfers, municipal participation fund, fiscal federalism

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Authors: Rafael A. B. De Medeiros, Zilmar M. P. Barros, Carlos B. O. De Carvalho, Eunice G. Fraga Neta, Maria I. S. Maciel, Patricia M. Azoubel

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The use of the sugar substitution technique (D3S) in mango was studied. It consisted of two stages and the use of ultrasound in one or both stages was evaluated in terms of water loss and solid gain. Higher water loss results were found subjecting the fruit samples to ultrasound in the first stage followed by immersion of the samples in Stevia-based solution with application of ultrasound in the second stage, while higher solids gain were obtained without application of ultrasound in second stage. Samples were evaluated in terms of total carotenoids content and total color difference. Samples submitted to ultrasound in both D3S stages presented higher carotenoid retention compared to samples sonicated only in the first stage. Color of man goes after the D3S process showed notable changes.

Keywords: Mangifera indica L., quality, Stevia rebaudiana, ultrasound

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Authors: Esperanza Garcia-Uceda, Josefina L. Murillo-Luna, M. Pilar Latorre-Martinez, Marta Ferrer-Serrano

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Social entrepreneurship represents an innovation of traditional business models. During the last decade, its important role in contributing to rural and regional development has been widely recognized, due to its capacity to combat the problem of depopulation through the creation of employment. However, the success of this type of innovative business initiatives depends to a large extent on the existence of an adequate ecosystem of support resources. Based on the theoretical framework of the quadruple helix (QH), which highlights the need for collaboration between different interest groups -university, industry, government and civil society- for the development of regional innovations, in this work the network analysis is applied to study the ecosystem of resources to support social entrepreneurship in the rural area of the province of Zaragoza (Spain). It is a quantitative analysis that can be used to measure the interactions between the different actors that make up the quadruple helix, as well as the networks created between the different institutions and support organizations, through the study of the complex networks they form. The results show the importance of the involvement of local governments and the university, as key elements in the development process, but also allow identifying other issues that are susceptible to improvement.

Keywords: ecosystem of support resources, network analysis, quadruple helix, social entrepreneurship

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Authors: M. Fikriansyah Wicaksono, Rafael Arief Budiman, M. Very Setiawan

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Currently, a wide range of innovative mobile library (M-Library) service is provided for the users in the library. The M-Library service is an innovation that aims to bring the collections of the library to users who currently use their smartphone so often. With M-Library services, it is expected that the users can fulfill their information needs more conveniently and practically. This study aims to find out how users use M-Library services provided by UGM library. This study applied a quantitative approach to investigate how to use the application M-Library. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) theory is applied to perform the analysis in terms of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude towards behavior, behavioral intention and actual system usage. The results show that overall the users found that the M-Library application is useful to meet their information needs. Such as facilitate user to access e-resources, search UGM library collections, online booking collections, and reminder for returning book.

Keywords: m-library, mobile library services, technology acceptance, library of UGM

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Due to the importance of ports to trade and economic development of the regions in which they are inserted, in recent decades the number of studies devoted to this subject has increased. Part of these studies consider the ports as business agglomerations and focuses on port governance. This is an important approach since the port performance is the result of activities performed by actors belonging to the port-logistics chain, which need to be properly coordinated. This coordination takes place through a port governance model. Given this context, this study aims to analyze the governance model of the port of Santos from the perspective of port customers. To do this, a closed-ended questionnaire based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance was applied to the international freight forwarders that operate in the port. The results show the applicability of the considered model and highlight improvement opportunities to be implemented at the port of Santos.

Keywords: port governance, model, Port of Santos, customers’ perception

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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