Search results for: PV power forecasting

Authors: Md. Nazmul Haque, Mahinur Rahman

Abstract:

The objective of the research is to determine the quantity of household waste generated and forecast the future condition of Ward No 24 (Nirala). For performing that, three core issues are focused: (i) the capacity and service area of the dumping stations; (ii) the present waste generation amount per capita per day; (iii) the responsibility of the local authority in the household waste collection. This research relied on field survey-based data collection from all stakeholders and GIS-based secondary analysis of waste collection points and their coverage. However, these studies are mostly based on the inherent forecasting approaches, cannot predict the amount of waste correctly. The findings of this study suggest that Nirala is a formal residential area introducing a better approach to the waste collection - self-controlled and collection system. Here, a forecasting model proposed for waste generation as Y = -2250387 + 1146.1 * X, where X = year.

Keywords: eco-friendly environment, household waste, linear regression, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

Abstract:

Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Sitarrine Thongpussawal, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Thanaroj Woraratprasert, Sakawtree Prajamwong

Abstract:

Thailand grapples with recurrent floods causing substantial repercussions on its economy, society, and environment. In 2021, the economic toll of these floods amounted to an estimated 53,282 million baht, primarily impacting the agricultural sector. The existing flood monitoring system in Thailand suffers from inaccuracies and insufficient information, resulting in delayed warnings and ineffective communication to the public. The Office of the National Water Resources (OWNR) is tasked with developing and integrating data and information systems for efficient water resources management, yet faces challenges in monitoring accuracy, forecasting, and timely warnings. This study endeavors to evaluate the viability of enhancing Thailand's Flood Forecasting and Warning (FFW) systems. Additionally, it aims to formulate a comprehensive work package grounded in international best practices to enhance the country's FFW systems. Employing qualitative research methodologies, the study conducted in-depth interviews and focus groups with pertinent agencies. Data analysis involved techniques like note-taking and document analysis. The study substantiates the feasibility of developing and enhancing FFW systems in Thailand. Implementation of international best practices can augment the precision of flood forecasting and warning systems, empowering local agencies and residents in high-risk areas to prepare proactively, thereby minimizing the adverse impact of floods on lives and property. This research underscores that Thailand can feasibly advance its FFW systems by adopting international best practices, enhancing accuracy, and improving preparedness. Consequently, the study enriches the theoretical understanding of flood forecasting and warning systems and furnishes valuable recommendations for their enhancement in Thailand.

Keywords: flooding, forecasting, warning, monitoring, communication, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Talip Turkmen

Abstract:

From the moment the first beats, the first step into the world mankind finds him in a struggle to survive. Most important case to win this fight is power. Power is one of the most common concepts which we encounter in our life. Mainly power is ability to reach desired results on someone else or ability to penetrate into the behavior of others. Throughout history merging technology and changing political trade-offs caused the change of concept of power. Receiving a state of multipolar new world order in the 21st century and increasing impacts of media have narrowed the limits of military power. With increasing globalization and peaceful diplomacy this gap, left by military power, has filled by soft power which has ability to persuade and attract. As concepts of power soft power also has not compromised yet. For that reason it is important to specify, sources of soft power, soft power strategies and limits of soft power. The purpose of this study was to analyze concept of soft power and importance of soft power in foreign relations. This project focuses on power, hard power and soft power relations, sources of soft power and strategies to gain soft power. Datas in this project was acquired from other studies on soft power and foreign relations. This paper was prepared in terms of concept and research techniques. As a result of data gained in this study the one of important topics in international relations is balance between soft power.

Keywords: soft power, foreign policy, national power, hard power

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 446

Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, S. Radhika

Abstract:

In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self-scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self-scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: ancillary services, BPSO, power system economics, self-scheduling, sliding window technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: A. S. Walkey, N. P. Patidar

Abstract:

It is not always economical to provide reactive power using synchronous alternators. The cost of reactive power can be minimized by optimal placing of FACTS devices in power systems. In this paper a Particle Swarm Optimization- Sequential Quadratic Programming (PSO-SQP) algorithm is applied to minimize the cost of reactive power generation along with real power generation to alleviate the bus voltage violations. The effectiveness of proposed approach tested on IEEE-14 bus systems. In this paper in addition to synchronous generators, an opportunity of FACTS devices are also proposed to procure the reactive power demands in the power system.

Keywords: reactive power, reactive power cost, voltage security margins, capability curve, FACTS devices

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: T. Mohammed Chikouche, K. Hartani

Abstract:

In order to solve the instantaneous power ripple and achieve better performance of direct power control (DPC) for a three-phase PWM rectifier, a control method is proposed in this paper. This control method is applied to overcome the instantaneous power ripple, to eliminate line current harmonics and therefore reduce the total harmonic distortion and to improve the power factor. A switching table is based on the analysis on the change of instantaneous active and reactive power, to select the optimum switching state of the three-phase PWM rectifier. The simulation result shows feasibility of this control method.

Keywords: power quality, direct power control, power ripple, switching table, unity power factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar

Abstract:

In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Serdal AKYUZ

Abstract:

The smart power is the use of soft and hard power together in consideration of existing circumstances. Soft power can be defined as the capability of changing perception of any target mass by employing policies based on legality. The hard power, generally, uses military and economic instruments which are the concrete indicator of general power comprehension. More than providing a balance between soft and hard power, smart power creates a proactive combination by assessing existing resources. Military targeting process (MTP), as stated in smart power methodology, benefits from a wide scope of lethal and non-lethal weapons to reach intended end state. The Smart powers components can be used in military targeting process similar to using of lethal or non-lethal weapons. This paper investigates the current use of Smart power concept, MTP and presents a new approach to MTP from smart power concept point of view.

Keywords: future security environment, hard power, military targeting process, soft power, smart power

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

Abstract:

Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: power quality disturbances, power quality evaluation, statistical analysis, electrical distribution networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

Abstract:

Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: J. S. Savier

Abstract:

Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

Abstract:

Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

Abstract:

Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

Abstract:

Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

Procedia PDF Downloads 631

Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

Abstract:

The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 13

Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

Abstract:

Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

Abstract:

The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Ch. Ashok Babu, J. V. R. Ravindra, K. Lalkishore

Abstract:

Power has became a burning issue in modern VLSI design. As the technology advances especially below 45nm, technology of leakage power became a big problem apart of the dynamic power. This paper presents a full adder with novel PMOS and NMOS which consume less power compare to conventional full adder, DTMOS full adder. This paper shows different types of adders and their power consumption, area, and delay. All the experiments have been carried out using Cadence® Virtuoso® design lay out editor which shows power consumption of different types of adders.

Keywords: average power, leakage power, delay, DTMOS, PDP

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Ákos Cserny

Abstract:

The unequivocal increase of the area of operation of the executive power can happen with the appearance of new areas to be influenced and its integration in the power, or at the expense of the scopes of other organs with public authority. The extension of the executive can only be accepted within the framework of the rule of law if parallel with this process we get constitutional guarantees that the exercise of power is kept within constitutional framework. Failure to do so, however, may result in the lack, deficit of democracy and democratic sense, and may cause an overwhelming dominance of the executive power. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present executive power and responsibility in the context of different dimensions.

Keywords: confidence, constitution, executive power, liabiliy, parliamentarism

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Kurias George, Ildefonso Cuesta Romeo, Clara Salueña Pérez, Jordi Sole Olle

Abstract:

With the growing prevalence of wind energy there is a need, for modeling techniques to evaluate the impact of wind farms on meteorology and oceanography. This study presents an approach that utilizes the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting )with that include a Wind Farm Parametrization model to simulate the dynamics around Parc Tramuntana project, a offshore wind farm to be located near the Gulf of Roses off the coast of Barcelona, Catalonia. The model incorporates parameterizations for wind turbines enabling a representation of the wind field and how it interacts with the infrastructure of the wind farm. Current results demonstrate that the model effectively captures variations in temeperature, pressure and in both wind speed and direction over time along with their resulting effects on power output from the wind farm. These findings are crucial for optimizing turbine placement and operation thus improving efficiency and sustainability of the wind farm. In addition to focusing on atmospheric interactions, this study delves into the wake effects within the turbines in the farm. A range of meteorological parameters were also considered to offer a comprehensive understanding of the farm's microclimate. The model was tested under different horizontal resolutions and farm layouts to scrutinize the wind farm's effects more closely. These experimental configurations allow for a nuanced understanding of how turbine wakes interact with each other and with the broader atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This modified approach serves as a potent tool for stakeholders in renewable energy, environmental protection, and marine spatial planning. environmental protection and marine spatial planning. It provides a range of information regarding the environmental and socio economic impacts of offshore wind energy projects.

Keywords: weather research and forecasting, wind turbine wake effects, environmental impact, wind farm parametrization, sustainability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

Abstract:

Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 420

Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Anil Kumar Pandey

Abstract:

Power plane noise is the most significant source of signal integrity (SI) issues in a high-speed digital design. In this paper, power integrity (PI) analysis of multiple power planes in a power delivery system of a 12-layer high-speed FPGA board is presented. All 10 power planes of HSD board are analyzed separately by using 3D Electromagnetic based PI solver, then the transient simulation is performed on combined PI data of all planes along with voltage regulator modules (VRMs) and 70 current drawing chips to get the board level power noise coupling on different high-speed signals. De-coupling capacitors are placed between power planes and ground to reduce power noise coupling with signals.

Keywords: power integrity, power-aware signal integrity analysis, electromagnetic simulation, channel simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Surinder Singh, Gursewak Singh Lovkesh

Abstract:

We have designed wavelength conversion based on four wave mixing in an optical fiber at 10 Gb/s. The power of converted signal increases with increase in signal power. The converted signal power is investigated as a function of input signal power and pump power. On comparison of converted signal power at different value of input signal power, we observe that best converted signal power is obtained at -2 dBm input signal power for both up conversion as well as for down conversion. Further, FWM efficiency, quality factor is observed for increase in input signal power and optical fiber length.

Keywords: FWM, optical fiiber, wavelngth converter, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 547

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Pavuluri Gopikrishna, B. Neelima

Abstract:

Power line carrier communication means audio power transmission via power line and reception of the amplified audio power at the receiver as in the form of speaker output signal using power line as the channel medium. The main objective of this suggested work is to transmit our message signal after frequency modulation by the help of FM modulator IC LM565 which gives output proportional to the input voltage of the input message signal. And this audio power is received from the power line by the help of isolation circuit and demodulated from IC LM565 which uses the concept of the PLL and produces FM demodulated signal to the listener. Message signal will be transmitted over the carrier signal that will be generated from the FM modulator IC LM565. Using this message signal will not damage because of no direct contact of message signal from the power line, but noise can disturb our information.

Keywords: amplification, fm demodulator ic 565, fm modulator ic 565, phase locked loop, power isolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 519

Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 292