Search results for: Laurent series

Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Naoki Suzuki, Kalla Alok, Nath Paras

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Bluefin (Thunnus orientalis) tuna is one of the most economically valuable tuna species in the world. In recent years the stock has been observed to decline. It is suspected that the stock-recruitment relationship and population structure is influenced by environmental and climatic variables. This study was aimed at investigating the influence of environmental and climatic conditions on the trajectory of the different life stages of the North Pacific bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis was performed for the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the bluefin tuna cohorts (age-0, 1, 2,…,9, 10+). General Additive Modeling (GAM) was used to reconstruct the recruitment (R) trajectory. The spatial movement of the SST was also monitored from 1953 to 2012 in the distribution area of the bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis showed significance influence of the North Pacific Sea Surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the age-0 group. Other age group (1, 2,…,9, 10+) time series did not exhibit any significant correlations. PDO showed most significant relationship in the months of October to December. Although the stock-recruitment relationship is of biological significance, the recruits (age-0) showed poor correlation with the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB). Indeed the most significant model incorporated the SSB, SST and PDO. The results show that the stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific bluefin tuna is multi-dimensional and cannot be adequately explained by the SSB alone. SST and PDO forcing of the population structure is of significant importance and needs to be accounted for when making harvesting plans for bluefin tuna in the North Pacific.

Keywords: pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, cohorts, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, general additive model

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 588

Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Somayeh Lotfi, Manuel Eggimann, Eckhard Wagner, Radosław Mróz, Jan Deja

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One of the main environmental challenges in the construction industry is a strong social force to decrease the bulk transport of the building materials in urban environments. Considering this fact, applying more in-situ recycling technologies for Construction and Demolition Waste (CDW) is an urgent need. The European C2CA project develops a novel concrete recycling technology that can be performed purely mechanically and in situ. The technology consists of a combination of smart demolition, gentle grinding of the crushed concrete in an autogenous mill, and a novel dry classification technology called ADR to remove the fines. The feasibility of this recycling process was examined in demonstration projects involving in total 20,000 tons of End of Life (EOL) concrete from two office towers in Groningen, The Netherlands. This paper concentrates on the second demonstration project of C2CA, where EOL concrete was recycled on an industrial site. After recycling, the properties of the produced Recycled Aggregate (RA) were investigated, and results are presented. An experimental study was carried out on mechanical and durability properties of produced Recycled Aggregate Concrete (RAC) compared to those of the Natural Aggregate Concrete (NAC). The aim was to understand the importance of RA substitution, w/c ratio and type of cement to the properties of RAC. In this regard, two series of reference concrete with strength classes of C25/30 and C45/55 were produced using natural coarse aggregates (rounded and crushed) and natural sand. The RAC series were created by replacing parts of the natural aggregate, resulting in series of concrete with 0%, 20%, 50% and 100% of RA. Results show that the concrete mix design and type of cement have a decisive effect on the properties of RAC. On the other hand, the substitution of RA even at a high percentage replacement level has a minor and manageable impact on the performance of RAC. This result is a good indication towards the feasibility of using RA in structural concrete by modifying the mix design and using a proper type of cement.

Keywords: C2CA, ADR, concrete recycling, recycled aggregate, durability

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Authors: Prajwal Eachempati, Laurent Muzellec, Ashish Kumar Jha

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We use Facebook as a case study to investigate the complex relationship between the firm’s public discourse (and actions) surrounding data privacy and the performance of a business model based on monetizing user’s data. We do so by looking at the evolution of public discourse over time (2004–2021) and relate topics to revenue and stock market evolution Drawing from archival sources like Zuckerberg We use LDA topic modelling algorithm to reveal 19 topics regrouped in 6 major themes. We first show how, by using persuasive and convincing language that promises better protection of consumer data usage, but also emphasizes greater user control over their own data, the privacy issue is being reframed as one of greater user control and responsibility. Second, we aim to understand and put a value on the extent to which privacy disclosures have a potential impact on the financial performance of social media firms. There we found significant relationship between the topics pertaining to privacy and social media/technology, sentiment score and stock market prices. Revenue is found to be impacted by topics pertaining to politics and new product and service innovations while number of active users is not impacted by the topics unless moderated by external control variables like Return on Assets and Brand Equity.

Keywords: public discourses, data protection, social media, privacy, topic modeling, business models, financial performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Israel using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests significant positive impacts of coal and natural gas consumptions on GDP in Israel. In the short run, GDP positively affects coal consumption. While there exists a positive unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Israel over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Israel, time series analysis

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable in one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity, and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021, and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables on the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of the Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: exchange rate, random forest, time series, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Jonardan Koner

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The study attempts to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on state economic growth in India. It further tries to determine the magnitude of the impact of infrastructural investment on economic indicator, i.e., per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. The study uses panel regression technique to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. Panel regression technique helps incorporate both the cross-section and time-series aspects of the dataset. In order to analyze the difference in impact of the explanatory variables on the explained variables across states, the study uses Fixed Effect Panel Regression Model. The conclusions of the study are that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development and that the impact is different for different states in India. We analyze time series data (annual frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2010. The study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicators.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, multiple regression, panel regression techniques, economic development, fixed effect dummy variable model

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Authors: Delphine Duval, Morgan Mangeas, Charlie Huveneers, Adam Barnett, Laurent Vigliola

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The global number of shark bites has increased over the past four decades with, however, high regional variability both in space and time. A systematic review, aligned with the 2020 PRISMA guidelines, explored the peer-reviewed literature published between 1960 and 2023 to identify factors potentially explaining trends in human-shark interactions. Results revealed that variations in the frequency of human-shark interactions could be explained by a plethora of factors, including changes in prey availability, environmental conditions, human and shark population density and behavior, as well as habitat destruction. However, to our best knowledge, only five studies have conducted statistical assessments of the relative contribution of these factors. The increased number in human-shark interactions and the frequent clusters of shark bites within short timeframes offer opportunities to test the causative factors that may explain trends in unprovoked shark bites. it study aims to evaluate the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) on the number of human-shark interactions, using data from the Global Shark Attack File and the World Database on Protected Areas. Results indicate contrasting effects of MPAs at different spatial scales. Enhancing our understanding of the factors contributing to shark bites is essential for improving risk reduction policies for humans and conservation plans for shark populations.

Keywords: unprovoked shark interactions, marine protected areas, attack risk, human-wildlife interaction

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Authors: Pawel Pistelok

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The article presents the concept of an electromagnetic circuit of a 3-phase surface-mounted permanent magnet generator designed for a single phase operation. A cross section of electromagnetic circuit and a field-circuit model of generator used for computations are shown. The paper presents comparative analysis of simulation results obtained for two different versions of generator regarding construction of armature winding. In the first version of generator the voltages generated in each of three winding phases have different rms values (different number of turns in each of phases), three winding phases are connected in series and one phase load is connected to the two output terminals of generator. The second version of generator is very similar, i.e. three winding phases are connected in series and one phase load is powered by generator, but in this version the voltages generated in each of winding phases have exactly the same rms values (the same number of turns in each of phases). The time waveforms of voltages, currents and electromagnetic torques in the airgaps of two machine versions for rated power are shown.

Keywords: permanent magnet generator, permanent magnets, synchronous generator, vibration, course of torque, single phase work, unsymmetrical operation point, serial connection of winding phase

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Authors: Gurpreet Singh, Hazoor Singh, Kulbir Singh Sandhu

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Friction Stir Welding Process emerged as promising solid-state welding and eliminates various welding defects like cracks and porosity in joining of dissimilar aluminum alloys. In the present research, Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is carried out on dissimilar aluminum alloys 2000 series and 6000 series this combination of alloys are highly used in automobile and aerospace industry due to their good strength to weight ratio, mechanical, and corrosion properties. The joints characterized by applying various destructive and non-destructive tests. Three critical welding parameters were considered i.e. Tool Rotation speed, Transverse speed, and Tool Geometry. The effective range of tool rotation speed from 1200-1800 rpm and transverse speed from 60-240 mm/min and tool geometry was studied. The two-different difficult to weld alloys were successfully welded. All the samples showed different microstructure with different set of welding parameters. It has been revealed with microstructure scans that grain refinement plays a crucial role in mechanical properties.

Keywords: aluminum alloys, friction stir welding, mechanical properties, microstructure

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Authors: Gayani K. Nandasiri, Tilak Dias, William Hurley

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Venous disease of human lower limb could range from minor asymptomatic incompetence of venous valves to chronic venous ulceration. The sheer prevalence of varicose veins and its associated significant costs of treating late complications such as chronic ulcers contribute to a higher burden on health care resources. In most of western countries with developed health care systems, treatment costs associated with Venous disease accounts for a considerable portion of their total health care budget, and it has become a high-cost burden to National Health Service (NHS), UK. The established gold standard of treatment for the venous disease is the graduated compression, where the pressure at the ankle being highest and decreasing towards the knee and thigh. Currently, medical practitioners use two main methods to treat venous disease; i.e. compression bandaging and compression stockings. Both these systems have their own disadvantages which lead to the current programme of research. The aim of the present study is to revolutionize the compression therapy by using a novel active compression system to deliver a controllable and more accurate pressure profiles using a series of inflatable mini bladders. Two types of commercially available silicones were tested for the application. The mini bladders were designed with a special fabrication procedure to provide required pressure profiles, and a series of experiments were conducted to characterise the mini bladders. The inflation/deflation heights of these mini bladders were investigated experimentally and using a finite element model (FEM), and the experimental data were compared to the results obtained from FEM simulations, which showed 70-80% agreement. Finally, the mini bladders were tested for its pressure transmittance characteristics, and the results showed a 70-80% of inlet air pressure transmitted onto the treated surface.

Keywords: finite element analysis, graduated compression, inflatable bladders, venous disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Se-Mi Lim, Won-Jae Jung, Jin-Sup Kim, Jun-Seok Park, Hyung-Il Chae

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This paper presents a current-mode vertical hall device (VHD) structure using metal layers in a CMOS process. The proposed metal layer based vertical hall device (MLVHD) utilizes vertical connection among metal layers (from M1 to the top metal) to facilitate hall effect. The vertical metal structure unit flows a bias current Ibias from top to bottom, and an external magnetic field changes the current distribution by Lorentz force. The asymmetric current distribution can be detected by two differential-mode current outputs on each side at the bottom (M1), and each output sinks Ibias/2 ± Ihall. A single vertical metal structure generates only a small amount of hall effect of Ihall due to the short length from M1 to the top metal as well as the low conductivity of the metal, and a series connection between thousands of vertical structure units can solve the problem by providing NxIhall. The series connection between two units is another vertical metal structure flowing current in the opposite direction, and generates negative hall effect. To mitigate the negative hall effect from the series connection, the differential current outputs at the bottom (M1) from one unit merges on the top metal level of the other unit. The proposed MLVHD is simulated in a 3-dimensional model simulator in COMSOL Multiphysics, with 0.35 μm CMOS process parameters. The simulated MLVHD unit size is (W) 10 μm × (L) 6 μm × (D) 10 μm. In this paper, we use an MLVHD with 10 units; the overall hall device size is (W) 10 μm × (L)78 μm × (D) 10 μm. The COMSOL simulation result is as following: the maximum hall current is approximately 2 μA with a 12 μA bias current and 100mT magnetic field; This work was supported by Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion(IITP) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No.R7117-16-0165, Development of Hall Effect Semiconductor for Smart Car and Device).

Keywords: CMOS, vertical hall device, current mode, COMSOL

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Authors: C. Pearcy, C. Rees

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Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and exposure and response prevention (ERP) are currently the most efficacious treatments for Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Many clients, however, remain symptomatic following treatment. As a result, refusal of treatment, withdrawal from treatment, and partial adherence to treatment are common amongst ERP. Such limitations have caused few professionals to actually engage in ERP therapy, which has warranted the exploration of alternative treatments. This study evaluated an online self-help treatment program for OCD (the OCD Doctor Online); a 4-week Metacognitive Therapy (MCT) program which has implemented strategies from Wells’ Metacognitive model of OCD. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether an online self-help treatment using MCT would reduce symptoms of OCD, reduce unhelpful metacognitions and improve quality of life. Treatment effectiveness was assessed using a case series methodology in 3 consecutively referred individuals. At post-treatment, all participants showed reductions in unhelpful metacognitive beliefs (MCQ-30) and improvements in quality of life (Q-LES-Q), which were maintained through to 4 week follow-up. Two of the three participants showed reductions in OCD symptomology (OCI-R), which were further reduced at 4-week follow-up. The present study suggests that internet-based self-help treatment may be an effective means of delivering MCT to adults with OCD.

Keywords: internet-based, metacognitive therapy, obsessive-compulsive disorder, self-help

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Authors: Guiheng Zhang, Wei Zhang, Jun Fu, Yudong Wang

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A 900 MHz three-stage SiGe power amplifier (PA) with high power gain is presented in this paper. Volterra Series is applied to analyze nonlinearity sources of SiGe HBT device model clearly. Meanwhile, the influence of operating current to IMD3 is discussed. Then a β-helper current mirror bias circuit is applied to improve linearity, since the β-helper current mirror bias circuit can offer stable base biasing voltage. Meanwhile, it can also work as predistortion circuit when biasing voltages of three bias circuits are fine-tuned, by this way, the power gain and operating current of PA are optimized for best linearity. The three power stages which fabricated by 0.18 μm SiGe technology are bonded to the printed circuit board (PCB) to obtain impedances by Load-Pull system, then matching networks are done for best linearity with discrete passive components on PCB. The final measured three-stage PA exhibits 21.1 dBm of output power at 1 dB compression point (OP1dB) with power added efficiency (PAE) of 20.6% and 33 dB power gain under 3.3 V power supply voltage.

Keywords: high gain power amplifier, linearization bias circuit, SiGe HBT model, Volterra series

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Authors: Chih-Chun Tang

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Nostalgia, to some people, may seem foolhardy in a way. However, nostalgia is a completely and intensely private but social, collective emotion. It has continuing consequence and outgrowth for our lives as social actions. It leads people to hunt and explore remembrance of persons and places of our past in an effort to confer meaning of persons and places of present. In the ‘Poems of 1912-13’ Thomas Hardy, a British poet, composed a series of poems after the unexpected death of his long-disaffected wife, Emma. The series interprets the cognitive and emotional concussion of Emma’s death on Hardy, concerning his mind and real visit to the landscape in Cornwall, England. Both spaces perform the author’s innermost in thought to his late wife and to the landscape. They present an apparent counterpart of the poet and his afflicted conscience. After Emma had died, Hardy carried her recollections alive by roaming about in the real visit and whimsical land (space) they once had drifted and meandered. This paper highlights the nostalgias and feds that seem endlessly to crop up.

Keywords: Thomas Hardy, remembrance, psychological, poems 1912-13, Fred Davis, nostalgia

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Authors: Rohit Tripathi, Sumit Tiwari, G. N. Tiwari

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In present study, an approach is adopted where photovoltaic thermal flat plate collector is integrated with compound parabolic concentrator. Analytical expression of temperature dependent electrical efficiency of N number of partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) water collector connected in series has been derived with the help of basic thermal energy balance equations. Analysis has been carried for winter weather condition at Delhi location, India. Energy and exergy performance of N - partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) Water collector system has been compared for two cases: (i) 25% area of water collector covered by PV module, (ii) 75% area of water collector covered by PV module. It is observed that case (i) has been best suited for thermal performance and case (ii) for electrical energy as well as overall exergy.

Keywords: compound parabolic concentrator, energy, photovoltaic thermal, temperature dependent electrical efficiency

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Authors: Naim Izet Kajtazi

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Introduction: There are few reported cases of ipsilateral weakness following ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. In these rare cases, ipsilateral weakness is typically the result of damage to uncrossed components of the corticospinal tract (CST), which were recruited in response to previous CST injury. Patients and Methods: We report a series of six cases of acute ipsilateral weakness or numbness following a hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke from three medical institutions in Saudi Arabia. Results: Three of these patients presented with right-sided weakness caused by an ipsilateral right hemispheric stroke, while two exhibited left-sided symptoms and one had only left-sided numbness. In all six cases, the ipsilateral corona radiata, internal capsule, basal ganglia, insula, and thalamus were involved. No concomitant opposite hemisphere or brainstem lesion in none of the patients was evident. Two patients had previous strokes affecting the brainstem and left corona radiata, respectively. A complete stroke workup to reveal the cause of the stroke was carried out, however, no functional MRI was performed. Conclusion: Ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke may indeed result in ipsilateral weakness or numbness, though in very rare cases. We assume that the most likely mechanism of their ipsilateral weakness subsequent to the ipsilateral stroke was a functional reorganization favoring CST pathways within the ipsilateral hemisphere.

Keywords: stroke, weakness, MRI brain, stroke unit

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Authors: Deepika Sudevan, Patrick Rozycki, Laurent Gornet

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This paper presents the experimental identification of the fatigue limit for pristine and impacted Carbon Fiber Reinforced Epoxy polymer (CFRP) woven composites based on the relatively new self-heating methodology for composites. CFRP composites of [0/90]8 and quasi isotropic configurations prepared using hand-layup technique are subjected to low energy impacts (20 J energy) simulating a barely visible impact damage (BVID). Runway debris strike, tool drop or hailstone impact can cause a BVID on an aircraft fuselage made of carbon composites and hence understanding the post-impact fatigue response of CFRP laminates is of immense importance to the aerospace community. The BVID zone on the specimens is characterized using X-ray Tomography technique. Both pristine and impacted specimens are subjected to several blocks of constant amplitude (CA) fatigue loading keeping R-ratio a constant but with increments in the mean loading stress after each block. The number of loading cycles in each block is a subjective parameter and it varies for pristine and impacted CFRP specimens. To monitor the temperature evolution during fatigue loading, thermocouples are pasted on the CFRP specimens at specific locations. The fatigue limit is determined by two strategies, first is by considering the stabilized temperature in every block and second is by considering the change in the temperature slope per block. The results show that both strategies can be adopted to determine the fatigue limit in both pristine and impacted CFRP composites.

Keywords: CFRP, fatigue limit, low energy impact, self-heating, WRM

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Authors: Ling Qi, Matloob Khushi, Josiah Poon

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This paper introduces a pre-trained Masked Candlestick Model (MCM) for trading time-series data. The pre-trained model is based on three core designs. First, we convert trading price data at each data point as a set of normalized elements and produce embeddings of each element. Second, we generate a masked sequence of such embedded elements as inputs for self-supervised learning. Third, we use the encoder mechanism from the transformer to train the inputs. The masked model learns the contextual relations among the sequence of embedded elements, which can aid downstream classification tasks. To evaluate the performance of the pre-trained model, we fine-tune MCM for three different downstream classification tasks to predict future price trends. The fine-tuned models achieved better accuracy rates for all three tasks than the baseline models. To better analyze the effectiveness of MCM, we test the same architecture for three currency pairs, namely EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, and EUR/JPY. The experimentation results demonstrate MCM’s effectiveness on all three currency pairs and indicate the MCM’s capability for signal extraction from trading data.

Keywords: masked language model, transformer, time series prediction, trading prediction, embedding, transfer learning, self-supervised learning

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Jeisson A. Estrella, Laura C. Herrera, Cristian A. Arenas

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The Colombian electricity sector has been transforming through the insertion of new energy sources to generate electricity, one of them being solar energy, which is being promoted by companies interested in photovoltaic technology. The study of this technology is important for electricity generation in general and for the planning of the sector from the perspective of energy complementarity. Precisely in this last approach is where the project is located; we are interested in answering the concerns about the reliability of the electrical system when climatic phenomena such as El Niño occur or in defining whether it is viable to replace or expand thermoelectric plants. Reliability of the electrical system when climatic phenomena such as El Niño occur, or to define whether it is viable to replace or expand thermoelectric plants with renewable electricity generation systems. In this regard, some difficulties related to the basic information on renewable energy sources from measured data must first be solved, as these come from automatic weather stations. Basic information on renewable energy sources from measured data, since these come from automatic weather stations administered by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) and, in the range of study (2005-2019), have significant amounts of missing data. For this reason, the overall objective of the project is to complete the global solar irradiance datasets to obtain time series to develop energy complementarity analyses in a subsequent project. Global solar irradiance data sets to obtain time series that will allow the elaboration of energy complementarity analyses in the following project. The filling of the databases will be done through numerical and statistical methods, which are basic techniques for undergraduate students in technical areas who are starting out as researchers technical areas who are starting out as researchers.

Keywords: time series, global solar irradiance, imputed data, energy complementarity

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Authors: Gabriela Teodorescu, Ioana Daniela Dulama

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In an ever-changing society, the education system needs to constantly evolve to meet market demands. During its 30 years of existence, Valahia University of Targoviste (VUT) tried to offer its students a series of teaching-learning schemes that would prepare them for a remarkable career. In VUT, the achievement of performance through innovation can be analyzed by reference to several key indicators (i.e., university climate, university resources, and innovative methods applied to classes), but it is possible to differentiate between activities in the classic format: participate to courses; interactive seminars and tutorials; laboratories, workshops, project-based learning; entrepreneurial activities, through simulated enterprises; mentoring activities. Thus, VUT has implemented over time a series of schemes and projects based on innovation and entrepreneurship, and in this paper, some of them will be briefly presented. All these schemes were implemented by facilitating an effective dialog with students and the opportunity to listen to their views at all levels of the University and in all fields of study, as well as by developing a partnership with students to set out priority areas. VUT demonstrates innovation and entrepreneurial capacity through its new activities for higher education, which will attract more partnerships and projects dedicated to students.

Keywords: Romania, project-based learning, entrepreneurial activities, simulated enterprises

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Authors: Lydia Foucan, Christine Rambhojan, Rachel Billy, Christophe Armand, Carl-Thony Michel, Jean-Marc Lacorte, Laurent Larifla

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Leptin, an adipocyte-derived hormone, modulates insulin secretion and action via the leptin receptor (LEPR) that is expressed in pancreatic beta cells, adipose tissue, and muscle. Several polymorphisms have been described in the human LEPR gene including p.K109R (rs1137100), p.Q223R (rs1137101) and p.K656N (rs1805094) polymorphisms. The role of these polymorphisms is not yet studied in Guadeloupian population. Our aim was to explore the association of LEPR polymorphisms (K109R, Q223R and K656N) with leptin levels and obesity in non-diabetic Afro-Caribbean subjects. Genotypic analysis of the three polymorphisms was performed in 425 subjects using TaqMan and KASPar Assays. Serum leptin was measured with ELISA kits Biovendor® (RD191001100). Logistic regressions were used for assessment of statistical associations. Mean age was 47.6 ± 12.7 years. Among the participants, 238 (56 %) were women, 124 (30%) were obese and 155 (36.5%) had abdominal obesity. Carriers of LEPR K656N rs1805094 rare allele had significant higher frequencies of obesity (P = 0.007), abdominal obesity (P = 0.004) and metabolic syndrome (P = 0.021) but mean leptin level was not significantly different between both groups (P = 0.075). Odds ratios, adjusted for age and sex associated with presence of rs1805094 rare allele were 1.8 (1.1-2.9), P = 0.012 for obesity, 2.0 (1.2-3.3), P = 0.008 for abdominal obesity and 1.8 (1.1-3.0), P = 0.031 for MetS. No significant association was found with K109R, Q223R. These findings suggest that the K656N polymorphism (but not the K109R or Q223R polymorphism) of LEPR is associated with obesity, abdominal obesity and metabolic syndrome in this Afro-Caribbean non-diabetic population.

Keywords: Afro-Caribbean, leptin levels, leptin receptor gene polymorphisms, obesity

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Authors: Lazurca Liliana Gina

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Different time series analysis of yearly air pollution at Suceava County, Nord-East of Romania, has been performed in this study. The trends in the atmospheric concentrations of the main gaseous and particulate pollutants in urban, industrial and rural environments across Suceava County were estimated for the period of 2008-2014. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the trends in the annual average concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, NO, NOx, SO2, CO, PM10, O3, C6H6). The slope was estimated using the non-parametric Sen’s method. Trend significance was assumed at the 5% significance level (p < 0.05) in the current study. During the 7 year period, trends in atmospheric concentrations may not have been monotonic, in some instances concentrations of species increased and subsequently decreased. The trend in Suceava County is to keep a low concentration of pollutants in ambient air respecting the limit values.All the results that we obtained show that Romania has taken a lot of regulatory measures to decrease the concentrations of air pollutants in the last decade, in Suceava County the air quality monitoring highlight for the most part of the analyzed pollutants decreasing trends. For the analyzed period we observed considerable improvements in background air in Suceava County.

Keywords: pollutant, trend, air quality monitoring, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: Avinash Kumar Ranjan, Akash Anand

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The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an essential factor accompanying to rise urban heat and climate warming within a city in micro level. It is also playing crucial role in global change study as well as radiation budgets measuring in heat balance studies. The information of LST is very substantial to recognize the urban climatology, ecological changes, anthropological and environmental interactions etc. The Chief motivation of present study focus on time series of ANN model that taken a sequence of LST values of 2000, 2008 and 2016, realize the pattern of variation within the data set and predict the LST values for 2024 and 2032. The novelty of this study centers on evaluation of LST using series of multi-temporal MODIS (MOD 11A2) satellite data by Maximum Value Composite (MVC) techniques. The results derived from this study endorse the proficiency of Geoinformatics Technology with integration of ANN to gain knowledge, understanding and building of precise forecast from the complex physical world database. This study will also focus on influence of Land Use/ Land Cover (LU/LC) variation on Land Surface Temperature.

Keywords: LST, geoinformatics technology, ANN, MODIS satellite imagery, MVC

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: Sara El Mansouria Beghdadi

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Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modelling is one of the main computer tools used in medicinal chemistry. Over the past two decades, the incidence of fungal infections has increased due to the development of resistance. In this study, the QSAR was performed on a series of esters of 2-carboxamido-3-(1H-imidazole-1-yl) propanoic acid derivatives. These compounds have showed moderate and very good antifungal activity. The multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to generate the linear 2d-QSAR models. The dataset consists of 115 compounds with their antifungal activity (log MIC) against «Candida albicans» (ATCC SC5314). Descriptors were calculated, and different models were generated using Chemoffice, Avogadro, GaussView software. The selected model was validated. The study suggests that the increase in lipophilicity and the reduction in the electronic character of the substituent in R1, as well as the reduction in the steric hindrance of the substituent in R2 and its aromatic character, supporting the potentiation of the antifungal effect. The results of QSAR could help scientists to propose new compounds with higher antifungal activities intended for immunocompromised patients susceptible to multi-resistant nosocomial infections.

Keywords: quantitative structure–activity relationship, imidazole, antifungal, candida albicans (ATCC SC5314)

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Authors: Rachid Essamoud, Abdelkrim Afenzar, Ahmed Belqadi

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During the Early Mesozoic, the northwestern part of the African continent was affected by initial fracturing associated with the early stages of the opening of the Central Atlantic (Atlantic Rift). During this rifting phase, the Moroccan Meseta experienced an extensive tectonic regime. This extension favored the formation of a set of rift-type basins, including the Mohammedia-Benslimane-ElGara-Berrechid basin. Thus, it is essential to know the nature of the deposits in this basin and their evolution over time as well as their relationship with the basaltic effusion of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). These deposits are subdivided into two large series: The Lower clay-salt series attributed to the Triassic and the Upper clay-salt series attributed to the Liassic. The two series are separated by the Upper Triassic-Lower Liassic basaltic complex. The detailed sedimentological analysis made it possible to characterize four mega-sequences, fifteen types of facies and eight architectural elements and facies associations in the Triassic series. A progressive decrease observed in paleo-slope over time led to the evolution of the paleoenvironment from a proximal system of alluvial fans to a braided fluvial style, then to an anastomosed system. These environments eventually evolved into an alluvial plain associated with a coastal plain where playa lakes, mudflats and lagoons had developed. The pure and massive halitic facies at the top of the series probably indicate an evolution of the depositional environment towards a shallow subtidal environment. The presence of these evaporites indicates a climate that favored their precipitation, in this case, a fairly hot and humid climate. The sedimentological analysis of the supra-basaltic part shows that during the Lower Liassic, the paleopente after basaltic effusion remained weak with distal environments. The faciological analysis revealed the presence of four major sandstone, silty, clayey and evaporitic lithofacies organized in two mega-sequences: the sedimentation of the first rock-salt mega-sequence took place in a brine depression system free, followed by saline mudflats under continental influences. The upper clay mega-sequence displays facies documenting sea level fluctuations from the final transgression of the Tethys or the opening Atlantic. Saliferous sedimentation is therefore favored from the Upper Triassic, but experienced a sudden rupture by the emission of basaltic flows which are interstratified in the azoic salt clays of very shallow seas. This basaltic emission which belongs to the CAMP would come from a fissural volcanism probably carried out through transfer faults located in the NW and SE of the basin. Their emplacement is probably subaquatic to subaerial. From a chronological and paleogeographic point of view, this main volcanism, dated between the Upper Triassic and the Lower Liassic (180-200 MA), is linked to the fragmentation of Pangea and managed by a progressive expansion triggered in the West in close relation with the initial phases of Central Atlantic rifting and seems to coincide with the major mass extinction at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary.

Keywords: Basalt, CAMP, Liassic, sedimentology, Triassic, Morocco

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