Search results for: Ghana stock exchange

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Jagbir Singh Kadyan

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This research paper critically analyse the performance of those Indian Automobile Companies which are listed and traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and which are also included in the NSE nifty auto Index. In India, CSR–Corporate Social Responsibility is mandatory for certain qualifying companies under the Indian Companies Act 2013, which replaces the erstwhile Companies Act 1956. There has been a significant shift in the focus and approaches of the Indian Corporates towards their CSR obligations with the insertion of section 135, revision of section 198 and introduction of schedule VII of the Indian Companies Act 2013. Every such qualifying companies are required to mandatorily spend at least 2% of their annual average net profit of the immediately preceding three financial years on such CSR activities as specified under schedule VII of the Companies act 2013. This research paper analyzes the CSR performance of such Indian companies. This research work is originally based on the secondary data. The annual reports of the selected Indian automobile companies have been extensively used and considered for this research work.

Keywords: board of directors, corporate social responsibility, CSR committees, Indian automobile companies, Indian companies act 2013, national stock exchange

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Authors: Tri Wijayanti Septiarini, Agus Maman Abadi, Muhammad Rifki Taufik

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The exchange rate of IDR/USD can be the indicator to analysis Indonesian economy. The exchange rate as a important factor because it has big effect in Indonesian economy overall. So, it needs the analysis data of exchange rate. There is decomposition data of exchange rate of IDR/USD to be frequency and time. It can help the government to monitor the Indonesian economy. This method is very effective to identify the case, have high accurate result and have simple structure. In this paper, data of exchange rate that used is weekly data from December 17, 2010 until November 11, 2014.

Keywords: the exchange rate, fuzzy mamdani, discrete wavelet transforms, fuzzy wavelet

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Authors: Nariman O. Kandil, Ehab K. Abou-Elkheir, Amr M. Kotb

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Effective IT governance guarantees the strategic alignment of IT and business goals, risk mitigation control, and better IT and business performance. This study seeks to examine empirically the extent of IT governance implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX30) and its determinants. Accordingly, 18 semi-structured interviews face to face, phone, and video-conferencing interviews using various tools (e.g., WebEx, Zoom, and Microsoft Teams) were undertaken at the interviewees’ offices in Egypt between the end of November 2019 and the end of August 2020. Results suggest that there are variances in the extent of IT Governance (ITG) implementation within the firms listed on the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX30), mainly caused by the industry type and internal and external triggers. The results also suggest that the organization size, the type of auditor, the criticality of the industry, the effective processes & KPIs, and the information intensity expertise of the CIO have a significant impact on IT governance implementation within the firms.

Keywords: effective IT governance, Egyptian market, information security, risk controls

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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This study investigates the management accountant’s roles that link with the creation of corporate shared value to enable more effective decision-making and improve the information needs of stakeholders. Mixed method is employed to collect using triangulation for credibility. A quantitative approach is employed to conduct a survey of 200 Thai companies providing annual reports in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The results of the study reveal that environmental and social data incorporated in a corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure are based on the indicators of the Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) at a statistically significant level of 0.01. Environmental and social indicators in CSR are associated with environmental and social data disclosed in the annual report to support stakeholders’ and the public’s interests that are addressed and show that a significant relationship between environmental and social in CSR disclosures and the information in annual reports is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Zakari Mustapha, Clinto Aigbavboa, Wellinton Didi Thwala

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Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) issues has been a major challenge to the Ghanaian government. The purpose of the study was to examine OHS practices in Ghana. The study looked at various views from different scholars about OHS practices in order to achieve the objective of the study. Literature review was conducted on OHS in Ghana. Findings from the study shows Ministry of Roads and Transport (MRT) and Ministry of Water Resources, Works and Housing (MWRWH) are two government ministries in charge of construction and implementation of the construction sector policy. The Factories, Offices and Shops Act 1970, Act 328 and the Mining Regulations 1970 LI 665 are the two major edicts. The study presents a strong background on OHS practices in Ghana and contribute to the body of knowledge on the solution to the current trends and challenges of OHS in the construction sector.

Keywords: ILO convention, OHS challenges, OHS practices, OHS improvement

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Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

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Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

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Authors: Jitendra Aswani

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In the first section of this study, impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the synchronization of fourteen Asian Stock Markets (ASM’s) of countries like Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Philippines and Sri Lanka, has been analysed using the network science and its metrics like degree of node, clustering coefficient and network density. Then in the second section of this study by introducing the US stock market in existing network and developing a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) spread of crisis from the US stock market to Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has been explained. Data used for this study is adjusted the closing price of these indices from 6th January, 2000 to 15th September, 2013 which further divided into three sub-periods: Pre, during and post-crisis. Using network analysis, it is found that Asian stock markets become more interdependent during the crisis than pre and post crisis, and also Hong Kong, India, South Korea and Japan are systemic important stock markets in the Asian region. Therefore, failure or shock to any of these systemic important stock markets can cause contagion to another stock market of this region. This study is useful for global investors’ in portfolio management especially during the crisis period and also for policy makers in formulating the financial regulation norms by knowing the connections between the stock markets and how the system of these stock markets changes in crisis period and after that.

Keywords: global financial crisis, Asian stock markets, network science, Kruskal algorithm

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Authors: Emma Mathias

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The aim of this study was to explore the role of food insecurity as a mediator of mental health in sub-Saharan Africa, taking Ghana as a case study. Although a quantitative correlation has recently been established between food insecurity and mental illness in Ghana, the nature and validity of this correlation remains unclear. A qualitative exploration was employed to investigate this correlation further. During the data collection period, twelve semi-structured interviews and five focus groups were conducted with a total of 124 individuals who were diagnosed with mental illnesses and their primary carers throughout rural and urban areas in Ghana. Interviews and focus groups were transcribed, translated, and analysed using thematic analysis. Preliminary results suggest that food insecurity may plays a role in mental illness in rural areas of Ghana where communities are reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods, but may play a lesser role in urban areas where communities are more reliant on petty trade as a source of livelihood. These results support psychosocial theories which suggest that the social and cultural factors involved in food production and consumption may be the key mediators between food insecurity and mental health.

Keywords: Food insecurity, Ghana, Mental health, Phenomenology

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Authors: Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir

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This research investigates dividends smoothing among non-financial companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in an era of unclaimed dividends from 2004 to 2013. There has been a raging controversy among Regulatory Authorities, Company Executives, Registrars of Companies, Shareholders and the general public regarding the increasing incidence of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to find out if corporate earnings management through dividends smoothing is implicated in unclaimed dividends among Nigerian non-financial firms. The research used panel data and employed Generalized Method of Moment as method of analysis. The research finds evidence of dividends-smoothing in this era of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The research concludes that dividends-smoothing is a trigger and red flag for unclaimed dividends, an output of earnings management. If earnings management and hence unclaimed dividends in Nigeria is allowed to continue, it will lead to great consequences to the investors and corporate policy of government. It is believed that the research will assist investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Nigeria.

Keywords: dividends smoothing, non financial companies, Nigerian stock exchange, unclaimed dividends, corporate earnings management

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Authors: Michael Augustus Akagbor

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Same-sex relationships have always existed in Ghana. In coastal towns such as James Town in the heart of the country’s capital, persons who were sexually different and attracted to members of their own sex were able to live their lives openly as queer persons without any fear for their lives. Since 2006, this idyllic existence has been under attack, with LGBTQ+ communities suffering violence and discrimination. This paper highlights the lived experiences of the LGBTIQ+ community in Ghana against the backdrop of the anti-gay bill - The Promotion of Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values Bill, 2021 (now renamed the Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Bill, 2021), currently before Parliament, introduced by eight members of Parliament as a Private Members’ Bill, and its implications for the LGBTQ+ community. The paper makes recommendations to key stakeholders on strategies to counter the cultural and religious arguments/strategies and activism of the anti-LGBTQ+ movement in Ghana. It relied on secondary data from a variety of sources, including the Bill before Parliament, media reports, and baseline surveys and studies conducted by LGBTQ organizations and other Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) in Ghana and elsewhere.

Keywords: sexual rights, promotion, family values, lgbtq+, ghana, discrimination

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Chia-Ching Tsai

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The aim of this study is to examine the stock price effect of the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. We explore the stock price response to the announcement that an enterprise is selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards. Empirical results indicate that the announcements of the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards provide useful informational content to stock market. We find the evidence of insignificantly positive short-term and significantly positive long-term price reaction to the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. This study concludes that investors in the Taiwan stock market tend to view an enterprise being selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards as one with superior quality and long-term price potential.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stock price effect, Taiwan stock market, investments

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Authors: Thitima Chaiyakul

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The number of previous literature regarding to the effect of asset growth and equity returns is small. Furthermore, those literature are mainly focus in the developed markets. According to my knowledge, there is no published paper examining the effect of asset growth and equity returns in the Stock Exchange of Thailand in different industry groups. The main objective in this research is the testing the effect of asset growth to equity returns in different industry groups. This study employs the data of the listed companies in the Stock Exchange of Thailand during January 1996 and December 2014. The data of financial industry are exclude from this study due to the different meaning of accounting terms. The results show the supported evidence that the asset growth positively affects the equity returns at a statistically significance level of at least 5% in Agro& Food Industry, Industrials, and Services Industry Groups. These results are inconsistent with the previous research testing in developed markets. Nevertheless, the statistically significances of the effect of asset growth to equity returns appear in some cases. In summary, the asset growth is a non-systematic risk and it is a mispricing factor.

Keywords: asset growth, asset pricing, equity returns, Thailand

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Authors: Emmanuel Anim

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Ghana has been touted as an oasis of peace in Africa following her relatively peaceful democratic elections, proliferated number of the media, and freedom of speech. Besides, the former Gold Coast country is yet to experience any major incidence of terrorism. Nevertheless, the somewhat occasional simmering violence and conflicts arising from political, religious and chieftaincy skirmishes, largely at its northern part portrays that it is not immune to the political violence of terrorism. The predominantly-based qualitative research reveals that current conditions of socio-politico-economic, and religious issues in Ghana places the West African country on the possible sidelines of the phenomenon of terrorism, when its status quo is juxtaposed with the factors enumerated to have culminated in the rise of Boko Haram, and its accompanying insurgency in Nigeria. Arguing from the perspective of the theory of Social Movement, the analyses and discussions note that the current state of affairs in Ghana could foster domestic terrorism in the country. What is more, the research shows that Ghana faces threats from transnational terrorism given the tendency for elements in Ghana to sympathize and subscribe to the ideological dictates and appeals from Boko Haram and other terrorist organizations. As a consequence, the study recommends that adverse conditions of poverty, poor governance, unemployment, and rising levels of (Islamic) religious radicalization should be remedied by economic improvements, good governance, job creation, and de-radicalization programs by government officials to aid mitigate the incidence of terrorism in the country.

Keywords: Boko Haram, Ghana, Nigeria, terrorism

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Authors: R. Henry, H. Andriamboavonjy, J. B. Paulin, S. Drahy, R. Gourichon

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During past decade, Chinese monetary policy has been to maintain stability of exchange rate CNY/USD by creating parity between the two currencies. This policy, against market equilibrium, impacts the exchange rate in having low Yuan currency, and keeping attractiveness of Chinese industries. Using macroeconomic and statistic approach, the impact of such policy onto CNY/USD exchange rate is quantitatively determined. It is also pointed out how Chinese banks respect Basel III ratios, in particular the foreign exchange ratio. The main analysis is focusing on how Chinese banks will respect these ratios in the future.

Keywords: macroeconomics models, yuan floating exchange rate, basel iii, china banking system

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Authors: Khaldoon G. Albitar, Hassan Y. Kikhia, Jin P. Zhang

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Since 2007, all companies listed on both Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). This study investigates the impact of adopting IFRS on accounting quality for a sample of listed on Chinese companies during the period 2003-2013 with sample of 10846 observations over a four-year period before and a five-year period after the adoption of IFRS. This study tests whether the level of earnings management is significantly lower after the adoption of IFRS, and reported earnings is more value relevant during the IFRS period by using the Ohlson model and Jones model, as modified by Dechow. The empirical results show that accounting quality improved with lower earnings management and higher value relevant after the adoption of IFRS in China. The current study contributes to the literature on IFRS adoption and earning quality in two ways. First, As most of the existing studies on earnings quality and IFRS have been conducted on data from the U.S and European countries, this study fills a gap in the existing literature by studying the effect of adoption of IFRS on earnings quality in an emerging market. Second, the findings of our study have important implications for policymakers, auditors, multinational firms, and users of financial reports. As the rapid growth of China's economy gains global recognition, the Chinese stock market is capturing the attention of international investor.

Keywords: international financial reporting standards (ifrs), accounting quality, earnings management, value relevance, china

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: credible elections, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Hamid Golnari

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This study aimed to investigate the impact of information technology on the quality of accounting information was made in 2014. A survey of 425 executives of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange, using the Cochran formula simple random sampling method, 84 managers of these companies as the sample size was considered. Methods of data collection based on questionnaire information technology some of the questions of the impact of information technology was standardized questionnaires and the questions were designed according to existing components. After the distribution and collection of questionnaires, data analysis and hypothesis testing using structural equation modeling Smart PLS2 and software measurement model and the structure was conducted in two parts. In the first part of the questionnaire technical characteristics including reliability, validity, convergent and divergent validity for PLS has been checked and in the second part, application no significant coefficients were used to examine the research hypotheses. The results showed that IT and its dimensions (timeliness, relevance, accuracy, adequacy, and the actual transfer rate) affect the quality of accounting information of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange influence.

Keywords: information technology, information quality, accounting, transfer speed

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Authors: Abigail Amoako Kayser, Brian Kayser

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This study aimed to examine Ghana's 6th-grade Basic School history curriculum to determine how Ghanaian history is taught. We used qualitative methods and document analysis. The document analysis served two primary purposes: (1) To gain insight into what the curriculum materials covered and from whom's perspectives, and (2) To triangulate with teacher interview data. Documents obtained included: (1) Textbooks used by 6th-grade students, (2) Teacher pacing guide provided by the Department of Education in Ghana, and (3) Student work samples. This study was guided through Post-colonial theory and criticisms to explore the remnants of colonial power and hegemony that persist in history curricula used in public schools in Ghana. We also applied African Feminist Thought and Black Feminist Thought to unpack the extent to which issues of patriarchy, race, traditions, underdevelopment, and sexuality impact how we see the experiences of people on the continent. The findings indicated that the remnant of colonial rule persisted in the contents of the history curriculum, and the atrocities of slavery were overlooked or eliminated from the curriculum. The findings also indicated that Ghana's history centered on men's experiences.

Keywords: history, curriculum, decolonialization, culturally relevant pedagogy

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Authors: Pham Duc Hieu, Do Thi Huong Lan

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the extent of voluntary disclosure by examining the annual reports of 205 industrial and manufacturing companies listing on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) for the year end of 2012. Those factors include company size, profitability, leverage, state ownership, managerial ownership, and foreign ownership, board independence, role duality and type of external auditors. Evidence from this study suggests two main findings. (1) Companies with high foreign ownership have a high level of voluntary disclosure. (2) The company size is an important factor related to the increased level of voluntary disclosure in annual reports made by Vietnamese listed companies. The larger the company, the higher the information is disclosed. However, no significant associations are found between profitability, leverage, state ownership, managerial ownership, board independence, role duality and type of external auditors as hypothesized in this study.

Keywords: voluntary disclosure, Vietnamese listed companies, voluntary, duality

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, Eugene Iheanacho

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This paper examined the dynamic behavior of stock market development and the growth of Nigerian economy. The variables; market capitalization ratio, turnover ratio and liquidity proxies by the ratio of market capitalization to gross domestic product were sourced and computed from the Nigerian stock exchange fact books and the CBN statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The variables were tested and found stationary and cointregrated using the augumented Dickey Fuller unit root test and the Johnson cointegration test respectively. The dynamic behavior of the stock market development model was verified using the error correction model. The result shows that about 0.4l percent of the short run deviation is corrected every year and also reveals that market capitalization ratio and market liquidity are positive and significant function of economic growth. In other words market capitalization ratio and liquidity positively and significantly impact economic growth. Market development variables such as turnover ratio and market restriction can exert positive but insignificant impact on the growth of the economy suggesting that securities transaction relative to the size of the securities market are not high enough to significantly engender economic growth in Nigeria. In the light of this, the researchers recommend that the regulatory body as well as the government, should provide a conducive environment capable of encouraging the growth and development of the stock market. This if well articulated will enhance the market turnover and the growth of the economy.

Keywords: market capitalization ratio, turnover ratio, liquidity, unit root test, cointegration

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Authors: Herjuno Bagus Wicaksono, Emma Almira Fauni, Salma Amelia Dina

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that, in an efficient capital market, price fully reflects the information available in the market. This theory has influenced many investors behavior in trading in the stock market. Advanced researches have been conducted to test the efficiency of the stock market in particular countries. Indonesia, as one of the emerging countries, has performed substantial growth in the past years. Hence, this paper aims to examine the efficiency of Islamic stock market in Indonesia in its weak form. The daily stock price data from Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) for the period October 2015 to October 2016 were used to do the statistical tests: Run Test and Serial Correlation Test. The results show that there is no serial correlation between the current price with the past prices and the market follows the random walk. This research concludes that Indonesia Islamic stock market is weak form efficient.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, Indonesia sharia stock index, random walk, weak form efficiency

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Authors: Joseph Kwame Sarfo-Adu

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Social protection programs have been rolled out by successive governments in the quest of bridging the inequality gap in Ghana. Despite notable positive impacts of these programs across the country, there still remains worrying experience of the exclusion of the poor and vulnerable especially in rural Ghana Notwithstanding the rhetoric of participation within the discussion of social protection programs, less attention has been given to the design of these programs. In view of this, the study seeks to address how social protection programs are designed to address the needs of the poor. This study focused on five selected social protection programs in Ghana because they are programs with nationwide coverage. Qualitative thematic analysis was applied to analyze our data with the use of the Nvivo 12 version. We found out that there is a strong link between policy design and poverty alleviation. Our findings revealed that a well-designed program can significantly alleviate poverty, a poorly designed program can create more damage.

Keywords: social protection, poverty alleviation, policy design, effective outcome

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Authors: Fereshteh Darash

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Reflective tax management corresponds to the Agency Theory since it determines the motivation of managers for tax management actions and short-term and long-term consequences. Therefore, selection of tax strategy contributes to the tax and financial position of the firm in the future. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the effect of tax management components on risk-taking of firms listed in Tehran stock exchange by using regression analysis method. Results show that tax effective rate, tax risk and tax planning have no significant effect on the firm's future risk. Results suggest that stakeholders assess the effective tax rate and delay in tax payment in line with their benefits. They tend to accept the higher risk cost for reduction of tax payments and benefits of higher liquidity in current period. Hence, effective tax rate and tax risk have no significant effect on future risk of the firm. Moreover, tax planning yields no information regarding the predictability of the future profits and as a result, it has no significant effect on the future risk of the firm since specific goals of financial reporting are in priority for the stakeholders and regardless of the firm’s data analysis, they take investment decisions and they less intend to purchase the stocks in a rational manner.

Keywords: tax management, tax effective rate, tax risk, tax planning, firm risk

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Authors: Weiping Liu

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This paper presents an equation to calculate stock prices of different growth model. This equation is mathematically derived by using discounted cash flow method. It has the advantages of being very easy to use and very accurate. It can still be used even when the first stage is lengthy. This equation is more generalized because it can be used for all the three popular stock price models. It can be programmed into financial calculator or electronic spreadsheets. In addition, it can be extended to a multistage model. It is more versatile and efficient than the traditional methods.

Keywords: stock price, multistage model, different growth model, discounted cash flow method

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Authors: Mohammed Sani Abdulai

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Ghana’s Public Financial Management reforms have been going on for some two decades now (1997/98 to 2017/18). Given this long period of reforms, Ghana in 2019 is putting together both a Public Financial Management (PFM) strategy and a Ghana Integrated Financial Management Information System (GIFMIS) strategy for the next 5-years (2020-2024). The primary aim of these dual strategies is assisting the country in moving beyond reforms to consolidation and sustainability. In this paper we, first, examined the evolution of Ghana’s PFM reforms. We, secondly, reviewed the legal and institutional reforms undertaken to strengthen the country’s key PFM institutions. Thirdly, we summarized the strengths and weaknesses identified by the 2018 Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment of Ghana’s PFM system relating to its macro-fiscal framework, budget preparation and approval, budget execution, accounting and fiscal reporting as well as external scrutiny and audit. We, finally, considered what the country should be doing to achieve its intended goal of PFM consolidation and sustainability. Using a qualitative method of review and analysis of existing documents, we, through this paper, brought to the fore the lessons that could be learnt by other developing countries from Ghana’s PFM reforms experiences. These lessons included the need to: (a) undergird any PFM reform with a comprehensive PFM reform strategy; (b) undertake a legal and institutional reforms of the key PFM institutions; (c) assess the strengths and weaknesses of those reforms using PFM performance evaluation tools such as PEFA framework; and (d) move beyond reforms to consolidation and sustainability.

Keywords: public financial management, public expenditure and financial accountability, reforms, consolidation, sustainability

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Authors: Gerald Abdesaken, Thomas O. Miller

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the performance of gold as a safe-haven investment. Assuming high market volatility as an impetus to seek a safe haven in gold, the return of gold relative to the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is tracked. Using the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) as a measure of stock market volatility, various criteria are established for when an investor would seek a safe haven to avoid high levels of risk. The results show that in a vast majority of cases, the S&P 500 outperforms gold during these periods of high volatility and suggests investors who seek safe haven are underperforming the market.

Keywords: gold, portfolio management, safe haven, VIX

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Nadia Sghaier

Abstract:

In this paper, we examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the Tunisian stock market and 12 sectors over a recent period from 23 March 2020 to 18 August 2021, including several waves and the introduction of vaccination. The empirical study is conducted using cointegration techniques which allows for long and short-run relationships. The obtained results indicate that both daily growth in confirmed cases and deaths have a negative and significant effect on the stock market returns. In particular, this effect differs across sectors. It seems more pronounced in financial, consumer goods and industrials sectors. These findings have important implications for investors to predict the behavior of the stock market or sectors returns and to implement hedging strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Tunisian stock market, sectors, COVID-19 pandemic, cointegration techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 167