Search results for: Africa in China
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3437

Search results for: Africa in China

677 Gender-Specific Vulnerability on Climate Change and Food Security Status - A Catchment Approach on Agroforestry Systems - A Multi-Country Case Study

Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare Id, Bernhard Freyer, Ky Serge Stephane, Ouéda Adama, Blessing Mudombi, Jean Nzuma, Mekonen Getachew Abebe, Adane Tesfaye, Birtukan Atinkut Asmare, Tesfahun Asmamaw Kassie

Abstract:

The study was conducted in Ethiopia (Zege Catchment) (ZC), Zimbabwe (Upper Save Catchment) (USC), and Burkina Faso (Nakambe Catchment) (NC). The study utilized a quantitative approach with 180 participants and complemented it with qualitative methods, including 33 key informant interviews and 6 focus group discussions. Households in ZC (58%), NC (55%), and US (40%) do not cover their household food consumption from crop production. The households rely heavily on perennial cash crops rather than annual crop production. Exposure indicators in ZC (0.758), USC (0.774), and NC (0.944), and sensitivity indicators in ZC (0.849) and NC (0.937) show statistically significant and high correlation with vulnerability. In the USC, adaptive capacity (0.746) and exposure (0.774) are also statistically significant and highly correlated with vulnerability. Vulnerability levels of the NC are very high (0.75) (0.85 female and 0.65 male participants) compared to the USC (0.66) (0.69 female and 0.61 male participants) and ZC (0.47) (0.34 female and 0.58 male participants). Female-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to males in ZC, while male-headed households had statistically significantly lower vulnerability index compared to females in USC and NC. The reason is land certification in ZC (80%) is higher than in the US (10%) and NC (8%). Agroforestry practices variables across the study catchments had statistically significant contributions to households' adaptive capacity. We conclude that agroforestry practices do have substantial benefits in increasing women's adaptive capacity and reducing their vulnerability to climate change and food insecurity.

Keywords: climate change vulnerability, agroforestry, gender, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa

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676 Pharmaceutical Equivalence of Some Injectable Gentamicin Generics Used in Veterinary Practice in Nigeria

Authors: F. A. Gberindyer, M. O.Abatan, A. B. Saba

Abstract:

Background: Gentamicin is an aminoglycoside antibiotic used in the treatment of infections caused by Gram-negative aerobic bacteria organisms in human and animals. In Nigeria, there are arrays of multisource generic versions of injectable gentamicin sulphate in the drug markets. There is a high prevalence of counterfeit and substandard drugs in the third world countries with consequent effect on their therapeutic efficacy and safety. Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate pharmaceutical equivalence of some of these generics used in veterinary practice in Nigeria. Methodology: About 20 generics of injectable gentamicin sulphate were sampled randomly across Nigeria but 15 were analyzed for identity and potency. Identity test was done using Fourier transform infra red spectroscopy and the spectral for each product compared with that of the USP reference standard for similarity. Microbiological assay using agar diffusion method with E. coli as a test organism on nutrient agar was employed and the respective diameters of bacterial inhibition zones obtained after 24 hour incubation at 37°C. The percent potency for each product was thereafter calculated and compared with the official specification. Result And Discussion: None of the generics is produced in any African country. About 75 % of the products are imported from China whereas 60 % of the veterinary generics are manufactured in Holland. Absorption spectra for the reference and test samples were similar. Percent potencies of all test products were within the official specification of 95-115 %. Nigeria relies solely on imported injectable gentamicin sulphate products. All sampled generic versions passed both identity and potency tests. Clinicians should ensure that drugs are used rationally since the converse could be contributing to the therapeutic failures reported for most of these generics. Bioequivalence study is recommended to ascertain their interchangeability when parenteral extra venous routes are indicated.

Keywords: generics, gentamicin, identity, multisource, potency

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675 Enhancing Self-Assessment and Management Potentials by Modifying Option Selections on Hartman’s Personality Test

Authors: Daniel L. Clinciu, IkromAbdulaev, Brian D. Oscar

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Various personality profile tests are used to identify personality strengths and limits in individuals, helping both individuals and managers to optimize work and team effort in organizations. One such test, Hartman’s personality profile emphasizes four driving "core motives" influenced or affected by both strengths and limitations. The driving core motives are classified into four colors: Red-motivated by power; Blue-discipline and loyalty; White-peace; and Yellow–fun loving. Two shortcomings of Hartman’s personality test are noted; 1) only one choice for every item/situation allowed and 2) selection of a choice even if not applicable. A test taker may be as much nurturing as he is opinionated but since “opinionated” seems less attractive the individual would likely select nurturing, causing a misidentification in personality strengths and limits. Since few individuals have a "strong" personality, it is difficult to assess their true personality strengths and limits allowing either only one choice or requiring unwanted choices, undermining the potential of the test. We modified Hartman’s personality profile allowing test takers to make either multiple choices for any item/situation or leave them blank when not applying. Sixty-eight participants (38 males and 30 females), 17-49 years old, from countries in Asia, Europe, N. America, CIS, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania were included. 58 participants (85.3%) reported the modified test, allowing either multiple or no choices better identified their personality strengths and limits, while 10 participants (14.7%) expressed the original (one choice version) is sufficient. The overall results show our modified test enhanced the identification and balance of personality strengths and limits, aiding test takers, managers, and firms to better understand personality strengths and limits, particularly useful in making task-related, teamwork, and management decisions.

Keywords: organizational behavior, personality tests, personality limitations, personality strengths, task management, team work

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674 The Strategic Roles of Women in Small Family Businesses: Evidence from Two Emerging Economies in West Africa

Authors: Bamidele Wale-Oshinowo, Doris Akyere Boateng, Lebura Sorbarikor

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Women play significant roles when it comes to the survival of family businesses; however, their efforts are less acknowledged across the developing world. In the case where these businesses are started by husbands, women in many instances work as hard as the men to build up the business. In spite of this, the benefits women receive are not equal to their inputs. For instance, the profits accruing from ownership of these businesses are mainly enjoyed by husbands, as they are deemed to be the legal owners of family businesses in most developing economies. Though the number of women involvement in the ownership, management, and direction of family businesses keeps increasing over the years, their efforts sometimes are ‘invisible’ and not rewarded. Using a phenomenological approach, this study purposively selected 20 businesswomen each from Ghana and Nigeria for in-depth interviews on the different roles they play in ensuring the success of their family businesses (FBs). This study also explored the challenges and opportunities that these women have within their family businesses. Among the major findings of this study is the important strategic direction that women give in terms of providing both tangible and intangible resources such as transfer of transit knowledge to the next generation. Women were also found to play a significant role in the implementation of entrepreneurial orientation within small family businesses in Ghana and Nigeria. However, the study revealed that women experience various challenges as stakeholders in family businesses, among which are: work-life balance issues, succession issues, and culture-related presuppositions about gender roles both within the business and in their families. In the light of the study’s findings, critical recommendations made include encouraging founders and/or owners of family businesses to create a conducive and viable platform for women to grow into key leadership positions within Family businesses; doing this would impact strongly on the growth rate of these form of businesses within the African Region.

Keywords: emerging economies, control, management, resources, strategy, women

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673 Enhancing Intercultural Competencies Through Digital Integration in South Africa

Authors: Naziema Begum Jappie

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In higher education, particularly within South African universities engaged in regional and global collaborations, the integration of intercultural competencies into teaching, learning, and assessment is essential for student success. Intercultural competencies and the digital platform are intwined in the fabric of teaching, learning, and assessments for student success in higher education. These are integral to virtual learning and exchange within higher education, which are expected to develop these competencies. However, this is not always the case because these are not always explicitly integrated into the academic agenda. Despite the prevalence of international students and exchange programmes, there is often a lack of deliberate integration of these competencies into academic agendas, even for South African students from different cultural, ethnic and language groups. This research addresses this gap by examining the impact of infusing intercultural activities into both face-to-face and digital learning platforms. Adopting an intersectional perspective, the study recognizes how social identities interact to shape individuals' self-perceptions and experiences in a university. Methodologically, this study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews to assess the effectiveness of integrating intercultural competencies into digital platforms. Surveys administered to students and faculty measure changes in intercultural skills and attitudes before and after the implementation of targeted interventions. In-depth interviews with participants will provide further insights into the qualitative aspects of these changes, including their experiences and perceptions of the integration process. The research evaluates whether the strategic integration of intercultural competencies into digital platforms enhances students' intercultural skills and social justice awareness. The findings provide valuable insights for higher education academics and internationalization practitioners seeking to develop effective strategies for cultivating intercultural competencies among students.

Keywords: digital platform, higher education, intercultural competencies, interventions

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672 Review on Future Economic Potential Stems from Global Electronic Waste Generation and Sustainable Recycling Practices.

Authors: Shamim Ahsan

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Abstract Global digital advances associated with consumer’s strong inclination for the state of art digital technologies is causing overwhelming social and environmental challenges for global community. During recent years not only economic advances of electronic industries has taken place at steadfast rate, also the generation of e-waste outshined the growth of any other types of wastes. The estimated global e-waste volume is expected to reach 65.4 million tons annually by 2017. Formal recycling practices in developed countries are stemming economic liability, opening paths for illegal trafficking to developing countries. Informal crude management of large volume of e-waste is transforming into an emergent environmental and health challenge in. Contrariwise, in several studies formal and informal recycling of e-waste has also exhibited potentials for economic returns both in developed and developing countries. Some research on China illustrated that from large volume of e-wastes generation there are recycling potential in evolving from ∼16 (10−22) billion US$ in 2010, to an anticipated ∼73.4 (44.5−103.4) billion US$ by 2030. While in another study, researcher found from an economic analysis of 14 common categories of waste electric and electronic equipment (WEEE) the overall worth is calculated as €2.15 billion to European markets, with a potential rise to €3.67 billion as volumes increase. These economic returns and environmental protection approaches are feasible only when sustainable policy options are embraced with stricter regulatory mechanism. This study will critically review current researches to stipulate how global e-waste generation and sustainable e-waste recycling practices demonstrate future economic development potential in terms of both quantity and processing capacity, also triggering complex some environmental challenges.

Keywords: E-Waste, , Generation, , Economic Potential, Recycling

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671 A Cross-Sectional Study on Management of Common Mental Disorders Among Patients Living with HIV/AIDS Attending Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Clinic in Hoima Regional Referral Hospital Uganda

Authors: Agodo Mugenyi Herbert

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Background: A high prevalence of both HIV infection and mental disorders exists in Sub-Saharan Africa, however there is little integration of care for mental health disorders among HIV-infected individuals. The study aimed at determining the management of common mental disorders among HIV/AIDS clients attending Antiretroviral clinic in Hoima regional referral hospital. Significancy of the study: The information generated by this study would help mental health advocates, ministry of health, Civil society organizations in HIV programming to advocate for enhanced mental health care for PLWHA. The result will be used in policy development and lobbying for integration of mental health care in HIV/AIDS care. Methods: This study applied a cross sectional design. It involved data collection from clients with HIV/AIDS attending ART clinic in Hoima regional referral hospital at one specific point in time. It aimed at providing data on the entire population under study. Data was collected from Hoima Regional Referral Hospital at the ART clinic. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 24. Results: 66 HIV/AIDS clients and 10 health workers in the ART clinic who participated fully completed the study. The overall prevalence of at least one form of mental disorder was 83%. Majority of the health care practitioner do not use pharmacological, psychological, and social interventions to manage such disorders. Conclusion: These results are suggestive of a significant proportion of the HIV-infected patients experiencing psychological difficulty for which they do not receive treatment Recommendations: Current care practices applied to patients with HIV/AIDS should be integrated more generally to include treatment services to identify and manage common mental disorders.

Keywords: common mental disorders, mental health, mental illness, and severe mental illness

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670 Exploring Academic Writing Challenges of First Year English as an Additional Language Students at an ODeL Institution in South Africa

Authors: Tumelo Jaquiline Ntsopi

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This study explored the academic writing challenges of first-year students who use English as an Additional Language (EAL) registered in the EAW101 module at an ODeL institution. Research shows that academic writing is a challenge for EAL teaching and learning contexts across the globe in higher education institutions (HEIs). Academic writing is an important aspect of academic literacy in any institution of higher learning, more so in an ODeL institution. This has probed research that shows that academic writing is and continues to pose challenges for EAL teaching and learning contexts in higher education institutions. This study stems from the researcher’s experience in teaching academic writing to first-year students in the EAW101 module. The motivation for this study emerged from the fact that EAW101 is a writing module that has a high number of students in the Department of English Studies with an average of between 50-80 percent pass rate. These statistics elaborate on the argument that most students registered in this module struggle with academic writing, and they need intervention to assist and support them in achieving competence in the module. This study is underpinned by Community of Inquiry (CoI) framework and Transactional distance theory. This study adopted a qualitative research methodology and utilised a case study approach as a research design. Furthermore, the study gathered data from first year students and the EAW101 module’s student support initiatives. To collect data, focus group discussions, structured open-ended evaluation questions, and an observation schedule were used to gather data. The study is vital towards exploring academic writing challenges that first-year students in EAW101 encounter so that lecturers in the module may consider re-evaluating their methods of teaching to improve EAL students’ academic writing skills. This study may help lecturers towards enhancing academic writing in a ODeL context by assisting first year students through using student support interventions.

Keywords: academic writing, academic writing challenge, ODeL, EAL

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669 Psychological Capital: Convergent and Discriminant Validity of a Reconfigured Measure

Authors: Anton Grobler

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Background: Psychological capital (PsyCap), consisting of Hope, Optimism, Resilience, and Self-efficacy, is a popular positive organisational behaviour construct utilised in the studying employee work and behavioral attitudes. Various scholars believe however that further validity research should be conducted on the PsyCap questionnaire (PCQ), outside of the founding research team and in more diverse settings, for the purpose of this paper, within the diverse South African (SA) context. Aim: The purpose of this study was to investigate the construct validity of the PCQ with specific reference to its psychometric properties within the diverse SA context. Setting: The sample includes a total of 1 749 respondents, ± 60 each from 30 organisations in South Africa. Method: This study utilised a cross-sectional design and quantitative analysis. The sample is relatively representative (in terms of race, gender) of the South African workforce. A multi-factorial model was statistically explored and confirmed (with exploratory factor analysis [EFA] and confirmatory factor analysis [CFA] respectively). Results: The study yielded a three-factor solution, with Hope and Optimism as a combined factor and Resilience and Self-efficacy made up of a reconfigured set of substantively justifiable items. Three items of the original 24 items were found not to be suitable. The three factors showed good psychometric properties, good fit (in support of construct validity) and acceptable levels of convergent and discriminant validity. Conclusion: The results support the original conceptualisation of PsyCap, although with a unique structural configuration. This resonates with the notion of scholars that further research should be conducted within diverse settings. This is necessary to ensure the valid measurement of the construct, which is considered to be one of the four criteria for a construct to be categorised as a positive organisational behaviour construct.

Keywords: positive organisational behaviour, psychological capital, hope, optimism, resilience, self-efficacy, construct validity

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668 Impact of Gold Mining on Crop Production, Livelihood and Environmental Sustainability in West Africa in the Context of Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Authors: Yusif Habib

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The Volta River Basin (VRB) is a transboundary resource shared by Six (6) the West African States. It’s utilization spans across irrigation, hydropower generation, domestic/household water use, transportation, industrial processing, among others. Simultaneously, mineral resources such as gold are mined within the VRB catchment. Typically, the extraction/mining operation is earth-surface excavation; known as Artisanal and Small-scale mining. We developed a conceptual framework in the context of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus to delineate the trade-offs and synergies between the mineral extractive operation’s impact on Agricultural systems, specifically, cereal crops (e.g. Maize, Millet, and Rice) and the environment (water and soil quality, deforestation, etc.) on the VRB. Thus, the study examined the trade-offs and synergies through the WEF nexus lens to explore the extent of an eventual overarching mining preference for gold exploration with high economic returns as opposed to the presumably low yearly harvest and household income from food crops production to inform intervention prioritization. Field survey (household, expert, and stakeholder consultation), bibliometric analysis/literature review, scenario, and simulation models, including land-use land cover (LULC) analyses, were conducted. The selected study area(s) in Ghana was the location where the mineral extractive operation’s presence and impact are widespread co-exist with the Agricultural systems. Overall, the study proposes mechanisms of the virtuous cycle through FEW Nexus instead of the presumably existing vicious cycle to inform decision making and policy implementation.

Keywords: agriculture, environmental sustainability, gold Mining, synergies, trade-off, water-energy-food nexus

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667 A Proposed Inclusive Motor Skill Intervention Programme for Pre-schoolers in Low Resources Areas in Preparation of School Readiness

Authors: J. Van der Walt, N. A. Plastow, M. Unger

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Gross and fine motor skill difficulties among children affect their ability to learn and progress in school. Research indicates that children in low socio-economic areas are at a higher risk of motor skill difficulties, while therapy resources are limited. The Hopscotch motor skill programme is a well-researched accessible in-school intervention developed by occupational and physiotherapists through complex intervention development. The development stage of the complex intervention development model firstly included a prevalence study in a low-resourced area in the West Coast of South Africa, indicating a high prevalence with significant motor skill difficulties among pre-school children at 14.5% with fine motor skill difficulties at 24.6%. A scoping review identifies motor skill interventions for pre-school children and a proposed a framework of fundamental concepts to consider when developing a motor skill intervention. a Delphi-study considered the framework and encouraged collaboration between therapists and educators to make the programme accessible, resource and cost effective, specifically geared towards a rural, low resourced area. The results from the Delphi study, together with the proposed framework from the scoping review was used to develop the Hopscotch programme, adopting a task-shifting approach. The eight-week small-group programme is facilitated by teachers with the support of therapists. The programme aims to improve the motor skills of pre-school aged children with motor skill difficulties to promote academic readiness through obstacle courses, ball skill games and fine motor games and crafts. A randomised controlled trial is planned as a next stage to determine the preliminary effect of the programme on the motor and early academic skills of pre-school children.

Keywords: accesible learning, motor skill intervention, school readiness, task shifting

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666 ‘An Invisible Labyrinth of Time’: Temporal Disjunction in J.M. Coetzee’s Dusklands

Authors: Barbara Janari

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This paper focuses on temporality in J.M. Coetzee’s first novel, Dusklands, to argue that the novel’s fractured, disjointed temporality is intricately linked to the representations of the war in Vietnam and the colonial project in South Africa. The disrupted temporalities in the novel eschew chronological plots and linear time in favour of narratives that subvert the notion of historical progress to suggest instead the coextensive, multivalent ways in which the past and present interpenetrate one another. The disruption of temporal flow in the novel is evident in its form – the novel comprises two novellas that are juxtaposed, with the first part (‘The Vietnam War’) set centuries before the second part (‘The Narrative of Jacobus Coetzee’). The juxtaposition of the two novellas suggests history’s sometimes overlapping and lateral, rather than linear, movement. The novel’s form is extended in its montage narrative structure, which works to extend its temporal range. The temporal disjunction is reinforced, firstly, by Coetzee’s textual strategies, which include the subversion and critique of realism, parody, repetition, and the narrative technique of montage, and secondly, by the novel’s thematic concerns, which focus on the ways in which American domination can be linked to the colonial quest from earlier times. The complex structure of various strands and levels of authorship slows down the narrative’s temporal flow, requiring the reader to spend a fair amount of time unraveling the various parts of the narrative and relating them to each other. The structure epitomizes reflexive referencing, in which the reader can only make sense of the narrative by going back and forth and connecting various parts of it. The narrative structure also emphasizes the underlying similarities in the brutality that marked these two distinct historical events, epitomized by the drive towards subjection and domination by the novel’s two protagonists, Eugene Dawn and Jacobus Coetzee. The links and overlapping strands between the two novellas emphasize the ways in which the historical truth of colonial discourse becomes as much a myth as the propaganda program in Vietnam.

Keywords: disjunction, juxtaposition, montage, temporality

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665 Influence of Nutritional and Health Education of Families and Communities on the School-Age Children for the Attainment of Universal Basic Education Goals in the Rural Riverine Areas of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: Folasade R. Sulaiman

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Pupils’ health and nutrition are basically important to their schooling. The preponderance of avoidable deaths among children in Africa (WHO, 2000) may not be unconnected with the nutritional and health education status of families and communities that have their children as school clients. This study adopted a descriptive survey design focusing on the assessment of the level of nutritional and health education of families and community members in the rural riverine areas of Ogun State. Two research questions were raised. The Nutritional and Health Education of Families and Communities Inventory (NHEFCI) was used to collect data from 250 rural child-bearing aged women, and 0.73 test-retest reliability coefficient was established to determine the strength of the instrument. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentages and mean in accordance with research questions raised in the study. The findings revealed amongst others: that 65% of the respondents had low level of nutritional and health education among the families and community members; while 72% had low level of awareness of the possible influence of nutritional and health education on the learning outcomes of the children. Based on the findings, it was recommended among others that government should intensify efforts on sensitization, mass literacy campaign etc.; also improve upon the already existing School Feeding Programme in Nigerian primary schools to provide at least one balanced diet for children while in school; community health workers, social workers, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) should collaborate with international Organizations like UNICEF, UNESCO, WHO etc. to organize sensitization programmes for members of the rural riverine communities on the importance of meeting the health and nutritional needs of their children in order to attain their educational potentials.

Keywords: nutritional and health education, learning capacities, school-age children, universal basic education, rural riverine areas

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664 Virus Diseases of Edible Seed Squash (Cucurbita pepo L.) in Aksaray Province

Authors: Serkan Yesil

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Cucurbits (the Cucurbitaceae family) include 119 genera and 825 species distributed primarily in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. The major cultivated cucurbit species such as melon (Cucumis melo L.), cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), squash (Cucurbita pepo L.), and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus (Thunb) Matsum.&Nakai) are important vegetable crops worldwide. Squash is grown for fresh consuming, as well as its seeds are used as a snack in Turkey like some Mediterranean countries and Germany, Hungary, Austria and China. Virus diseases are one of the most destructive diseases on squash which is grown for seeds in Aksaray province. In this study, it was aimed to determine the virus infections in major squash growing areas in Aksaray province. Totally 153 plant samples with common virus symptoms like mosaic, curling, blistering, mottling, distortion, shoestring, stunting and vine decline were collected from squash plants during 2014. In this study, DAS-ELISA method is used for identifying the virus infections on the plant samples. According to the results of the DAS-ELISA 84.96 % of plant samples were infected with Zucchini yellow mosaic Potyvirus (ZYMV), Watermelon mosaic Potyvirus-2 (WMV-2), Cucumber mosaic Cucumovirus (CMV), Papaya ringspot Potyvirus-watermelon strain (PRSV-W) and Squash mosaic Comovirus (SqMV). ZYMV was predominant in the research area with the ratio of 66.01 %. WMV-2 was the second important virus disease in the survey area, it was detected on the samples at the ratio of 57.51 %. Also, mixed infections of those virus infections were detected commonly in squash. Especially, ZYMV+WMV-2 mixed infections were common. Cucumber green mottle mosaic Tobamovirus (CGMMV) was not present in the research area.

Keywords: Aksaray, DAS-ELISA, edible seed squash, WMV-2, ZYMV

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663 Variation in Water Utilization of Typical Desert Shrubs in a Desert-Oasis Ecotone

Authors: Hai Zhou, Wenzhi Zhao

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Water is one of the most important factors limiting plant growth and development in desert ecosystems. In order to understand how desert shrubs cope with variation in water sources over time, it is important to understand plant–water relations in desert-oasis ecotone. We selected the typical desert shrubs: Nitraria sibirica, Calligonum mongolicum and Haloxylon ammodendron of 5-, 10-, 20- and 40-year old as the research species, to study the seasonal variation of plant water sources and response to precipitation in the desert-oasis ecotone of Linze, Northwestern China. We examined stable isotopic ratios of oxygen (δ18O) in stem water of desert shrubs as well as in precipitation, groundwater, and soil water in different soil layers and seasons to determine water sources for the shrubs. We found that the N. sibirica and H. ammodendron of 5-, 10-year old showed significant seasonal variation characteristics of δ18O value of stem water and water sources. However, the C. mongolicum and 20- and 40-year H. ammodendron main water sources were from deep soil water and groundwater, and less response to precipitation pulse. After 22.4 mm precipitation, the contribution of shallow soil water (0-50cm) to the use of N. sibirica increased from 6.7% to 36.5%; the C. mongolicum rarely use precipitation that were about 58.29% and 23.51%, absorbed from the deep soil water and groundwater; the contribution of precipitation to use of H. ammodendron had significantly differences among the four ages. The H. ammodendron of 5- and 10-year old about 86.3% and 42.5% water sources absorbed from the shallow soil water after precipitation. However, the contribution to 20- and 40-year old plant was less than 15%. So, the precipitation was one of the main water sources for desert shrubs, but the species showed different water utilization. We conclude that the main water source of the N. sibirica and H. ammodendron of 5-, 10-year was soil water recharged by precipitation, but the deeply rooted H. ammodendron of 20‐ and 40‐year‐old and the C. mongolicum have the ability to exploit a deep and reliable water source.

Keywords: water use pattern, water resource, stable isotope, seasonal change, precipitation pulse

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662 Developing Urban Design and Planning Approach to Enhance the Efficiency of Infrastructure and Public Transportation in Order to Reduce GHG Emissions

Authors: A. Rostampouryasouri, A. Maghoul, S. Tahersima

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The rapid growth of urbanization and the subsequent increase in population in cities have resulted in the destruction of the environment to cater to the needs of citizens. The industrialization of urban life has led to the production of pollutants, which has significantly contributed to the rise of air pollution. Infrastructure can have both positive and negative effects on air pollution. The effects of infrastructure on air pollution are complex and depend on various factors such as the type of infrastructure, location, and context. This study examines the effects of infrastructure on air pollution, drawing on a range of empirical evidence from Iran and China. Our paper focus for analyzing the data is on the following concepts: 1. Urban design and planning principles and practices 2. Infrastructure efficiency and optimization strategies 3. Public transportation systems and their environmental impact 4. GHG emissions reduction strategies in urban areas 5. Case studies and best practices in sustainable urban development This paper employs a mixed methodology approach with a focus on developmental and applicative purposes. The mixed methods approach combines both quantitative and qualitative research methods to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the research topic. A group of 20 architectural specialists and experts who are proficient in the field of research, design, and implementation of green architecture projects were interviewed in a systematic and purposeful manner. The research method was based on content analysis using MAXQDA2020 software. The findings suggest that policymakers and urban planners should consider the potential impacts of infrastructure on air pollution and take measures to mitigate negative effects while maximizing positive ones. This includes adopting a nature-based approach to urban planning and infrastructure development, investing in information infrastructure, and promoting modern logistic transport infrastructure.

Keywords: GHG emissions, infrastructure efficiency, urban development, urban design

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661 Hydro-Geochemistry of Qare-Sou Catchment and Gorgan Gulf, Iran: Examining Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Major Ions and Determining the River’s Hydro-Chemical Type

Authors: Milad Kurdi, Hadi Farhadian, Teymour Eslamkish

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This study examined the hydro-geochemistry of Qare-Sou catchment and Gorgan Gulf in order to determine the spatial distribution of major ions. In this regard, six hydrometer stations in the catchment and four stations in Gorgan Gulf were chosen and the samples were collected. Results of spatial and temporal distribution of major ions have shown similar variation trends for calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate ions. Also, the spatial trend of chloride, sulfate, sodium and potassium ions were same as Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solid (TDS). In Nahar Khoran station, the concentrations of ions were more than other stations which may be related to human activities and the role of geology. The Siah Ab station’s ions showed high concentration which is may be related to the station’s close proximity to Gorgan Gulf and the return of water to Qare-Sou River. In order to determine the interaction of water and rock, the Gibbs diagram was used and the results showed that water of the river falls in the rock range and it is affected more by weathering and reaction between water and stone and less by evaporation and crystallization. Assessment of the quality of river water by using graphic methods indicated that the type of water in this area is Ca-HCO3-Mg. Major ions concentration in Qare-Sou in the universal average was more than but not more than the allowed limit by the World Health Organization and China Standard Organization. A comparison of ions concentration in Gorgan Gulf, seas and oceans showed that the pH in Gorgan Gulf was more than the other seas but in Gorgan Gulf the concentration of anion and cation was less than other seas.

Keywords: hydro-geochemistry, Qare-Sou river, Gorgan gulf, major ions, Gibbs diagram, water quality, graphical methods

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660 Hybridization of Manually Extracted and Convolutional Features for Classification of Chest X-Ray of COVID-19

Authors: M. Bilal Ishfaq, Adnan N. Qureshi

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COVID-19 is the most infectious disease these days, it was first reported in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei in China then it spread rapidly throughout the whole world. Later on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared it a pandemic. Since COVID-19 is highly contagious, it has affected approximately 219M people worldwide and caused 4.55M deaths. It has brought the importance of accurate diagnosis of respiratory diseases such as pneumonia and COVID-19 to the forefront. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach for the automated detection of COVID-19 using medical imaging. We have presented the hybridization of manually extracted and convolutional features. Our approach combines Haralick texture features and convolutional features extracted from chest X-rays and CT scans. We also employ a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) feature selection algorithm to reduce computational complexity and enhance classification performance. The proposed model is evaluated on four publicly available datasets, including Chest X-ray Pneumonia, COVID-19 Pneumonia, COVID-19 CTMaster, and VinBig data. The results demonstrate high accuracy and effectiveness, with 0.9925 on the Chest X-ray pneumonia dataset, 0.9895 on the COVID-19, Pneumonia and Normal Chest X-ray dataset, 0.9806 on the Covid CTMaster dataset, and 0.9398 on the VinBig dataset. We further evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model using ROC curves, where the AUC for the best-performing model reaches 0.96. Our proposed model provides a promising tool for the early detection and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19, which can assist healthcare professionals in making informed treatment decisions and improving patient outcomes. The results of the proposed model are quite plausible and the system can be deployed in a clinical or research setting to assist in the diagnosis of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, feature engineering, artificial neural networks, radiology images

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659 The Crisis of Displacement and Resettlement of Bakassi People of the Nigeria-Cameroon Borderlands

Authors: Geoffrey Nwaka

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After many years of a border dispute between Nigeria and Cameroon over the ownership of the Bakassi Peninsula, the International Court of Justice ruled in 2002 that, based on the 1913 colonial boundary agreement between Britain and Germany, the oil-rich Peninsula, inhabited for generations by Nigerians, and hitherto administered as one of Nigeria’s 774 Local Government Areas, belongs to Cameroon, and not to Nigeria. Under pressure from the international community, Nigeria and Cameroon signed the Greentree Accord in 2006 to comply peacefully with the ICJ ruling and to protect the fundamental rights and freedoms of the Bakassi people, whether they opted to remain in the Peninsula under the authority of Cameroon or relocate to Nigeria. Sadly, the Nigerian government and the international community underestimated the scale of displacement that would follow the withdrawal of the Nigerian administration and military forces from the area and did not prepare adequately for the massive influx of tens of thousands of Bakassi people hurriedly dislodged by the reported hostility of the Cameroon authorities and their security services. The paper discusses the historical context and contemporary significance of the crisis, the chaotic resettlement schemes and appalling humanitarian relief camps in ‘New Bakassi’, and the prolonged hardship and disillusionment of the disaffected refugees/returnees. The lesson for African and Asian governments and peoples is to avoid needless conflicts over the 'imported' colonial boundaries, to remove unnecessary border restrictions, and take fully into account the development needs and well-being of borderland communities that sometimes rightly feel that distant central governments negotiate their political and international interests at the expense of the borderlands; and finally, to begin to see the boundaries more as links and bridges for the cooperation and integration of African and Asian states and peoples, rather than as barriers and static lines of demarcation on the map.

Keywords: Africa, forced displacement, resettlement, border conflict, Bakassi

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658 The Impact of Rapid Urbanisation on Public Transport Systems in the Gauteng Region of South Africa

Authors: J. Chakwizira, P. Bikam, T. A. Adeboyejo

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This paper seeks to illustrate the impact of rapid urbanization (in terms of both increase in people and vehicles) in the Gauteng region (which includes Johannesburg, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni). The impact that existing transport systems and options place on the capacity of residents from low income areas to travel and conduct various socio-economic activities is discussed. The findings are drawn from a 2013 analysis of a random transport household survey of 1550 households carried out in Gauteng province. 91.4% of the study respondents had access to public transport, while 8.6% had no access to public transport. Of the 91.4% who used public transport, the main reason used to explain this state of affairs was that it was affordable (54.3%), convenient (15.9%), Accessible (11.9%), lack of alternatives (6.4%) and reliable at 4.1%. Recommendations advanced revolve around the need to reverse land use and transportation effects of apartheid planning, growing and developing a sustainable critical mass of public transport interventions supported by appropriate transport systems that are environmentally sustainable through proper governance. 38.5% of the respondents indicated that developing compact, smart and integrated urban land spaces was key to reducing travel challenges in the study area. 23.4% indicated that the introduction and upgrading of BRT buses to cover all areas in the study area was a step in the right direction because it has great potential in shifting travel patterns to favor public modes of transport. 15.1% indicated that all open spaces should be developed so that fragmentation of land uses can be addressed. This would help to fight disconnected and fragmented space and trip making challenges in Gauteng. 13.4% indicated that improving the metro rail services was critical since this is a mass mover of commuters. 9.6% of the respondents highlighted that the bus subsidy policy has to be retained in the short to medium term since the spatial mismatches and challenges created by apartheid are yet to be fully reversed.

Keywords: urbanisation, population, public, transport systems, Gauteng

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657 Biorefinery Annexed to South African Sugar Mill: Energy Sufficiency Analysis

Authors: S. Farzad, M. Ali Mandegari, J. F. Görgens

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The South African Sugar Industry, which has a significant impact on the national economy, is currently facing problems due to increasing energy price and low global sugar price. The available bagasse is already combusted in low-efficiency boilers of the sugar mills while bagasse is generally recognized as a promising feedstock for second generation bioethanol production. Establishment of biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mills, as an alternative for the revitalization of sugar industry producing biofuel and electricity has been proposed and considered in this study. Since the scale is an important issue in the feasibility of the technology, this study has taken into account a typical sugar mill with 300 ton/hr sugar cane capacity. The biorefinery simulation is carried out using Aspen PlusTM V8.6, in which the sugar mill’s power and steam demand has been considered. Hence, sugar mills in South Africa can be categorized as highly efficient, efficient, and not efficient with steam consumption of 33, 40, and 60 tons of steam per ton of cane and electric power demand of 10 MW; three different scenarios are studied. The sugar cane bagasse and tops/trash are supplied to the biorefinery process and the wastes/residues (mostly lignin) from the process are burnt in the CHP plant in order to produce steam and electricity for the biorefinery and sugar mill as well. Considering the efficient sugar mill, the CHP plant has generated 5 MW surplus electric powers, but the obtained energy is not enough for self-sufficiency of the plant (Biorefinery and Sugar mill) due to lack of 34 MW heat. One of the advantages of second generation biorefinery is its low impact on the environment and carbon footprint, thus the plant should be self-sufficient in energy without using fossil fuels. For this reason, a portion of fresh bagasse should be sent to the CHP plant to meet the energy requirements. An optimization procedure was carried out to find out the appropriate portion to be burnt in the combustor. As a result, 20% of the bagasse is re-routed to the combustor which leads to 5 tons of LP Steam and 8.6 MW electric power surpluses.

Keywords: biorefinery, sugarcane bagasse, sugar mill, energy analysis, bioethanol

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656 Globalization and Public Policy Analysis: A Case Study of Foreign Policy of ASEAN Member States

Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This study has an objective to analyze foreign policy of member states in globalization current, aiming to answer that the foreign policy of member states have been changed or remained the same and there are any factors affecting changing of foreign policy of the member states. From the study results, it is found that the foreign policy of Thailand is a friendly foreign policy with all states. The policy of Indonesia is more opened because of a change in leader, allowing more democratic development in the country; the government has proceeded with friendly foreign policy with the states in order to bring funds into the state. The foreign policy of Malaysia is not much changed as there is no changing in the leader; the policy of Malaysia has reconciled relations with main city of Indian and Chinese residing in the country in order to bring investments into the country and to relieve tensions in the country. The foreign policy of the Philippines has proceeded with policy under the ASEAN framework and emphasized on international Islam communities. The foreign policy of Singapore has the least changed as the Singapore's policy focuses on internal trade since the state was found. As for the foreign policy of Brunei Darussalam, Brunei has a little role in the international stage; the state having closest relationship as from the view of history is Singapore as the Singaporean has invested in retailing business in Brunei. The foreign policy of Vietnam has emphasized on an omnidirectional foreign policy in order to compete with several states in global stage. The foreign policy of Myanmar has proceeded with a friendly foreign policy with all ASEAN member states, the East-west Corridor transportation line from Myanmar through Thailand and Lao to Vietnam has been developed. As for the foreign policy of Lao, In 2001, the Thai government and Lao government held a discussion which Thailand reaffirmed the position not to support the anti-Lao group. The foreign policy of Cambodia has proceeded with more openness, having good relation with China, Russia and USA as these states has invested in the state, especially the US company.

Keywords: globalization, public policy analysis, foreign policy, ASEAN member states

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655 Changing Routes: The Adaptability of Somali Migrants and Their Smuggling Networks

Authors: Alexandra Amling, Emina Sadic

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The migration routes linking the Horn of Africa to Europe shift in response to political and humanitarian developments across the region. Abrupt changes to those routes can have profound effects on the relative ease of movement and the well-being of migrants. Somali migrants have traditionally been able to rely on a sophisticated, well-established, and reliable network of smugglers to facilitate their journey through the Sahel to Libya, but changes to the routes have undermined those networks. Recently, these shifts have made the journey from Somalia to Europe much more perilous. As the Libyan coast guard intensifies its efforts to stymie boats leaving its coast for Italian shores, arrivals in Spain are trending upwards. This paper thus, will examine how the instability in transit countries that are most commonly used by Somali migrants has had an impact on the reliability of their massive network of smuggling, and how resurgence in the Western route toward Spain provides a potentially new opportunity to reach Europe—a route that has rarely been used by the Somali migrant population in the past. First, the paper will discuss what scholars have called the pastoralist, nomadic tradition of Somalis which reportedly has allowed them to endure the long journeys from Somalia to their chosen destinations. Facilitated by relatives or clan affiliation, Somali migrants have historically been able to rely on a smuggling network that – at least tangentially – provided more security nets during their travels. Given the violence and chaos that unfolded both in Libya and Yemen in 2011 and 2015, respectively, the paper will, secondly, examine which actors in smuggling hubs increase the vulnerabilities of Somalis, pushing them to consider other routes. As a result, this paper will consider to what extent Somalis could follow the stream of other migrants to Algeria and Morocco to enter Europe via Spain. By examining one particular group of migrants and the nature and limitations of the networks associated with their movements, the paper will demonstrate the resilience and adaptability of both the migrants and the networks regardless of the ever-changing nature of migration routes and actors.

Keywords: Europe, migration, smuggling networks, Somalia

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654 Phylogenetic Analysis of Klebsiella Species from Clinical Specimens from Nelson Mandela Academic Hospital in Mthatha, South Africa

Authors: Sandeep Vasaikar, Lary Obi

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Rapid and discriminative genotyping methods are useful for determining the clonality of the isolates in nosocomial or household outbreaks. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) is a nucleotide sequence-based approach for characterising bacterial isolates. The genetic diversity and the clinical relevance of the drug-resistant Klebsiella isolates from Mthatha are largely unknown. For this reason, prospective, experimental study of the molecular epidemiology of Klebsiella isolates from patients being treated in Mthatha over a three-year period was analysed. Methodology: PCR amplification and sequencing of the drug-resistance-associated genes, and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) using 7 housekeeping genes mdh, pgi, infB, FusAR, phoE, gapA and rpoB were conducted. A total of 32 isolates were analysed. Results: The percentages of multidrug-resistant (MDR), extensively drug-resistance (XDR) and pandrug-resistant (PDR) isolates were; MDR 65.6 % (21) and XDR and PDR with 0 % each. In this study, K. pneumoniae was 19/32 (59.4 %). MLST results showed 22 sequence types (STs) were identified, which were further separated by Maximum Parsimony into 10 clonal complexes and 12 singletons. The most dominant group was Klebsiella pneumoniae with 23/32 (71.8 %) isolates, Klebsiella oxytoca as a second group with 2/32 (6.25 %) isolates, and a single (3.1 %) K. varricola as a third group while 6 isolates were of unknown sequences. Conclusions/significance: A phylogenetic analysis of the concatenated sequences of the 7 housekeeping genes showed that strains of K. pneumoniae form a distinct lineage within the genus Klebsiella, with K. oxytoca and K. varricola its nearest phylogenetic neighbours. With the analysis of 7 genes were determined 1 K. variicola, which was mistakenly identified as K. pneumoniae by phenotypic methods. Two misidentifications of K. oxytoca were found when phenotypic methods were used. No significant differences were observed between ESBL blaCTX-M, blaTEM and blaSHV groups in the distribution of Sequence types (STs) or Clonal complexes (CCs).

Keywords: phylogenetic analysis, phylogeny, klebsiella phylogenetic, klebsiella

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653 Attraction and Identification of Early Scavenger Insects on Shaded and Sunny Liver Baits in a Saharian Region of South-Central Algeria

Authors: A. M. Taleb, A. G. Tail, A. F. Kara, B. B. Djedouani, C. T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology is the use of insects to aid legal investigations. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the postmortem interval (PMI). In order to estimate the PMI, a forensic entomologist compares the case data with certain reference information relevant to the particular location and time of year. This reference information, including the local distribution of species, are not available in Algeria. Therefore, experiments need to be conducted to provide references for entomological evidence. The objective of this study was to identify the necrophagous flies species which arrive first to carrion using liver baits in Ghardaia, South Algeria. The study was carried out during the spring season in the palmeral of Beni Isguen, Ghardaia which is well known by its hot arid climate. The experiment site (32°28’0’’ N, 3°42’0’’ E), is situated at an altitude of about 526 metres above mean sea level. On April the 4th, 2014, a number of three replicates of liver baited traps were placed in the shade and other three baits were exposed to the sun. Flying insects and larvae were captured and identified. After few minutes, flies invaded the traps which were exposed to the sun. In contrast, no flies were observed in the other traps. A total number of fourty five (45) adult specimens belonging to three taxa were identified: Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) (51.11 %), Lucilia sericata (Meigen, 1826) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) (33.33 %) and Sarcophaga africa (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) (15.55 %). Six hundred and three (603) maggots belonging to two taxa were identified: Calliphora vicina (76.28 %) and Lucilia sericata (23.71 %). The data obtained from this study provides baseline information regarding the carrion fauna of this area. It will also form a basis for similar studies in different geographical and climatological regions of Algeria.

Keywords: forensic entomology, liver baits, necrophagous fly, Ghardaia, South Algeria

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652 Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS) as an Evolutionary Mismatch Disorder: An Argument for the Significance of Hyperandrogenism on Reproductive Fitness in Ancestral Populations

Authors: Courtney Manthey-Pierce, Anna Warrener

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Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disruptive disorder in females. PCOS is primarily characterized by polycystic ovaries, anovulation, hirsutism, insulin resistance, and hyperandrogenism. Despite negative reproductive consequences for females from anovulation and endocrine dysfunction, genes associated with the pathogenesis of PCOS are highly hereditable (h2 = 0.72). An evolutionary mismatch occurs when a trait that evolved in one environment has become maladaptive in another environment. The idea that PCOS is an evolutionary mismatch disease has been promoted by several researchers. Each trait of the resulting PCOS phenotype should be investigated individually in order to demonstrate an evolutionary mismatch. Hyperandrogenism is often regarded as the main characteristic of PCOS Hyperandrogenism may have aided with conception in older females, increased bone mineral density, and supported prolonged breastfeeding in nutritionally distressed populations. Because of the high prevalence of PCOS in the modern world, approximately 6%, it is often argued that PCOS emerged in an ancestral population prior to the migration out of Africa approximately 200,000 years ago. This environment would be characterized by sporadic periods of nutrition deficit and resource hardships as the climate began changing. Presently, modern society is characterized by obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The prevalence of obesity renders hyperandrogenism PCOS useless as there are no periods of nutritional distress requiring androgens for increased reproductive rates. In an ancestral environment, hyperandrogenism would likely lead to sporadic anovulation and mild secondary symptoms, however high levels of androgens in a modern environment led to prolonged if not permanent infertility and excessive secondary problems. Thus, hyperandrogenism related to PCOS appears to meet evolutionary mismatch criteria. Seen in this light, PCOS may be effectively treated as a probably evolutionary mismatch.

Keywords: evolutionary mismatch, heritability, hyperandrogenism, mismatch disorder

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651 Factors Influencing the Choice of Multi-Month Drug Dispensing Model Amongst Children and Adolescents Living with HIV (C/ALHIV) in Eswatini

Authors: Mbuso Siwela

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Background: The Sub-Saharan Africa region has the greatest number of people eligible to receive antiretroviral treatment (ART). Multi-month Drug dispensing (MMD) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) aims to reduce patient-related barriers to access long-term treatment and improve health system efficiency. In Eswatini, however, few children and adolescents are on MMD. Young Heroes is implementing an HIV program that aims to avert new HIV infections in children and youth and improve treatment outcomes for children and adolescents living with HIV (C/ALHIV: 0-19 Years) and OVC caregivers with HIV prevention and impact mitigation interventions that prevent new HIV infections and reduce vulnerability. Aim of the study: The study aimed to ascertain factors that are associated with the assignment of the MMD model on C/ALHIVs. Methodology: The project provides treatment adherence support through well-trained community cadres (Home Visitors - HVs) at both community and health facility levels. During door-to-door visits, HVs track all C/ALHIV enrolled in the project monthly and refer any who might have stopped or interrupted treatment. C/ALHIV with unsuppressed viral load is supported through case conferencing and teen clubs. A quantitative cross-sectional analysis was conducted using STATA for children and adolescents living with HIV enrolled in the project. Bivariate analysis was conducted, and the Logistic Regression model was used to ascertain the effects of duration on ART on the choice of MMD model. Results: Data for 544 C/ALHIV (0-19 Years) was analyzed in STATA. Results show a strong association between (duration on ART, Age, being in teen club) and enrolment in an MMD model. Duration on ART is a major predictor for the choice of MMD model at (95% CI: 0.0012905 – 0.0039812; P = <0.0001). C/ALHIV who have been on ART for less than a year are less likely to be on MMD. C/ALHIVs who are 1 or more years on ART are more likely to be in 3 months dispensing, while those who are 5 years or more are most likely to be in 6 months model.

Keywords: C/ALHIV, OVC, HIV, treatment

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650 Finite Element Modeling of a Lower Limb Based on the East Asian Body Characteristics for Pedestrian Protection

Authors: Xianping Du, Runlu Miao, Guanjun Zhang, Libo Cao, Feng Zhu

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Current vehicle safety standards and human body injury criteria were established based on the biomechanical response of Euro-American human body, without considering the difference in the body anthropometry and injury characteristics among different races, particularly the East Asian people with smaller body size. Absence of such race specific design considerations will negatively influence the protective performance of safety products for these populations, and weaken the accuracy of injury thresholds derived. To resolve these issues, in this study, we aim to develop a race specific finite element model to simulate the impact response of the lower extremity of a 50th percentile East Asian (Chinese) male. The model was built based on medical images for the leg of an average size Chinese male and slightly adjusted based on the statistical data. The model includes detailed anatomic features and is able to simulate the muscle active force. Thirteen biomechanical tests available in the literature were used to validate its biofidelity. Using the validated model, a pedestrian-car impact accident taking place in China was re-constructed computationally. The results show that the newly developed lower leg model has a good performance in predicting dynamic response and tibia fracture pattern. An additional comparison on the fracture tolerance of the East Asian and Euro-American lower limb suggests that the current injury criterion underestimates the degree of injury of East Asian human body.

Keywords: lower limb, East Asian body characteristics, traffic accident reconstruction, finite element analysis, injury tolerance

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649 Rethinking the Air Quality Health Index: Harmonizing Health Protection and Climate Mitigation

Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

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Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

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648 Scenario Analysis to Assess the Competitiveness of Hydrogen in Securing the Italian Energy System

Authors: Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Matteo Nicoli, Orsola Maria Robasto, Laura Savoldi

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The hydrogen value chain deployment is likely to be boosted in the near term by the energy security measures planned by European countries to face the recent energy crisis. In this context, some countries are recognized to have a crucial role in the geopolitics of hydrogen as importers, consumers and exporters. According to the European Hydrogen Backbone Initiative, Italy would be part of one of the 5 corridors that will shape the European hydrogen market. However, the set targets are very ambitious and require large investments to rapidly develop effective hydrogen policies: in this regard, scenario analysis is becoming increasingly important to support energy planning, and energy system optimization models appear to be suitable tools to quantitively carry on that kind of analysis. The work aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrogen in contributing to the Italian energy security in the coming years, under different price and import conditions, using the energy system model TEMOA-Italy. A wide spectrum of hydrogen technologies is included in the analysis, covering the production, storage, delivery, and end-uses stages. National production from fossil fuels with and without CCS, as well as electrolysis and import of low-carbon hydrogen from North Africa, are the supply solutions that would compete with other ones, such as natural gas, biomethane and electricity value chains, to satisfy sectoral energy needs (transport, industry, buildings, agriculture). Scenario analysis is then used to study the competition under different price and import conditions. The use of TEMOA-Italy allows the work to catch the interaction between the economy and technological detail, which is much needed in the energy policies assessment, while the transparency of the analysis and of the results is ensured by the full accessibility of the TEMOA open-source modeling framework.

Keywords: energy security, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, natural gas, open-source modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA

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