Search results for: return on investment

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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Authors: Tukur Husaini Nahuche

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The parent resources play a vital role in the life of the offspring. It help give children basic necessities of life like food, clothing, and housing. In a like manner financial assets allow parents to move into neighborhood with more affluent school systems, to pay school bills, purchase expensive technologies like personal computer, save money for tutoring books, magazines, journals, Newspapers etc. Making of proper provision in the home environment conducive for learning after school hours and creation of other outdoor activities for them are what necessitate in enhancing and accelerating children’s learning opportunities. Indeed, this paper intends to discuss parental investment in education, parent income resources, parental education, occupation, and income as relatively influencing children’s access to quality education. With the hope that families would provide equal opportunities for children irrespective of their sex, intelligence, subject choice,etc.

Keywords: parental investment, children's access, quality education

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska

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The goal of this paper is to specify factors influencing the profitability of selected banks. Next, a model will be created to help establish variables that have a demonstrable influence on the development of the selected banks' profitability ratios. Czech banks and their international parent companies were selected for analyzing profitability. Banks categorized as large banks (according to the Czech National Bank's system, which ranks banks according to balance sheet total) were selected to represent the Czech banks. Two ratios, the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the return on equity ratio (ROE) are used to assess bank profitability. Six endogenous and four external indicators were selected from among other factors that influence bank profitability. The data analyzed were for the years 2001 – 2013. First, correlation analysis, which was supposed to eliminate correlated values, was conducted. A large number of correlated values were established on the basis of this analysis. The strongly correlated values were omitted. Despite this, the subsequent regression analysis of profitability for the individual banks that were selected did not confirm that the selected variables influenced their profitability. The studied factors' influence on bank profitability was demonstrated only for Československá Obchodní Banka and Société Générale using regression analysis. For Československá Obchodní Banka, it was demonstrated that inflation level and the amount of the central bank's interest rate influenced the return on assets ratio and that capital adequacy and market concentration influenced the return on equity ratio for Société Générale.

Keywords: banks, profitability, regression analysis, ROA, ROE

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Rakesh Mishra, Mukunda Upadhyay, Rajni Singh

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This paper attempts to link remittances sent by internal as well as international out-migrants and its domestic preferences of usage in three different dimension of Household level development in India and its states. Investment of remittances in these sectors reveals for mixed choices of preferential among the states from where people have out-migrated. The multivariate analysis implies that among all three indicators of human development, health (Investment in Food and Health) is the one that attracts the major investment followed by capital formation and least on Education. Usage of the remittances has been found to be varying across all the states in India as far as usage in health, capital formation and education are concerned. Orissa, Nagaland, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, D & H Haweli are some of the states and union territory that contributes highest of its international remittances on health, while most of the usage of the internal remittances has second or third preferences of investment on the health except for Uttar Pradesh, D & H Haweli, Arunachal Pradesh and A & N Is. This paper tries to access usage of international remittances as well as internal remittances on the flow of remittances at the micro level and its implications across three basic determinants of Human Development that is Health, Capital formation and Education coupled with the preferences of usage in presence of Several Socio economic and Demographic variable.

Keywords: multivariate analysis, household development, remittances, internal and international migration

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Authors: Matěj Kuc

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This paper compares different types of profitability measures of cooperative banks from two developed regions: the European Union and the United States of America together with Canada. We created balanced dataset of more than 200 cooperative banks covering 2011-2016 period. We made series of tests and run Random Effects estimation on panel data. We found that American and Canadian cooperatives are more profitable in terms of return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). There is no significant difference in net interest margin (NIM). Our results show that the North American cooperative banks accommodated better to the current market environment.

Keywords: cooperative banking, panel data, profitability measures, random effects

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Authors: Hadi Mousavi, Majid Davoudi Nasr

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Executives can maximize profits by recognizing the factors that affect investment and using them to obtain the optimal level of investment. Inefficient markets have shortcomings that can impact the optimal level of investment, leading to the process of over-investment or under-investment. In the present study, the relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations with respect to financial flexibility in companies listed in the Tehran stock exchange from 2009 to 2013 were evaluated. In this study, the sample consists of 84 companies selected by a systematic elimination method and 420 year-companies in total. In this research, EVIEWS software was used to test the research hypotheses by linear regression and correlation coefficient and after designing and testing the research hypothesis. After designing and testing research hypotheses that have been used to each hypothesis, it was concluded that there was a significant relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations, and this relationship was not significant at any level of financial flexibility. Moreover, the findings of the research showed that there was a significant relationship between senior manager’s overconfidence and positive abnormal cash flow fluctuations in firms, and this relationship is significant only at the level of companies with high financial flexibility. Finally, the results indicate that there is no significant relationship between senior managers 'overconfidence and negative cash flow abnormalities, and the relationship between senior managers' overconfidence and negative cash flow fluctuations at the level of companies with high financial flexibility was confirmed.

Keywords: abnormal cash fluctuations, overconfidence of senior managers, financial flexibility, accounting

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Authors: Mehdi Asgarkhani

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Today, investment on Information Technology (IT) solutions in most organizations is the largest component of capital expenditure. As capital investment on IT continues to grow, IT managers and strategists are expected to develop and put in practice effective decision making models (frameworks) that improve decision-making processes for the use of IT in organizations and optimize the investment on IT solutions. To be exact, there is an expectation that organizations not only maximize the benefits of adopting IT solutions but also avoid the many pitfalls that are associated with rapid introduction of technological change. Different organizations depending on size, complexity of solutions required and processes used for financial management and budgeting may use different techniques for managing strategic investment on IT solutions. Decision making processes for strategic use of IT within organizations are often referred to as IT Governance (or Corporate IT Governance). This paper examines IT governance - as a tool for best practice in decision making about IT strategies. Discussions in this paper represent phase I of a project which was initiated to investigate trends in strategic decision making on IT strategies. Phase I is concerned mainly with review of literature and a number of case studies, establishing that the practice of IT governance, depending on the complexity of IT solutions, organization's size and organization's stage of maturity, varies significantly – from informal approaches to sophisticated formal frameworks.

Keywords: IT governance, corporate governance, IT governance frameworks, IT governance components, aligning IT with business strategies

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Authors: Julius Steinkopf, Eric Rost, Aike Hessel, Sonia Lippke

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Objective: This study examined possible determinants of return to work (RTW) in individuals who participated in a medical rehabilitation program longitudinally over a time period of six months. Design/methodology/approach: N=1,044 rehabilitants were included in the baseline measurement in terms of completing a questionnaire during their medical rehabilitation. About 30% (n=350) have remained in the study in terms of participating in computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) six months later. Frequency analyses and Regression analyses were run. Findings: About 70% of the rehabilitants returned to work six months after rehabilitation. Regression analyses revealed that the RTW rates were significantly predicted by gender (OR=0.12, men were more likely to return), perceived social support (OR=3.01) and current physical functioning (OR=1.25). Furthermore RTW motives, like expected monetary rewards (OR=25.2) and feelings of being needed (OR=0.18) same as motives for not returning to work (nRTW), like the wish to stop working in order to spend time with the spouse (OR=0.13) or a lack of enjoyment of work (OR=3.81), significantly predicted return to work rates. Life satisfaction, self-efficacy beliefs, mental health, current income, educational background or age did not significantly increase explained variance (all ps > .05). Practical implications: Taking theses predictors into account provides options to increase the effectiveness of interventions aiming at increasing RTW: Medical rehabilitations should not only aim at improving the physical functioning but also to enhance beneficial motives and social support as well as support women specifically in order to improve the effectiveness of medical rehabilitation and public health interventions. Originality/value: Illness-caused work absences are related to high financial costs and individual burden. Despite of the public health and societal implications, this is one of the very few studies investigating systematically fitness and health for the return to work.

Keywords: gender, fitness, health, physical functioning

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Authors: Jasmine H. Gagnon

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The present study examined how grandiose narcissists make adaptive trade-offs between mating investment, parenting investment, and somatic investment relative to individuals without narcissistic personalities. A sample of 509 males and females between the ages of 24 and 35 years old (49.31% female) completed a personality inventory assessing Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness to Experience. In a Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), personality inventory scores were used to classify participants into latent groups. The model of best fit identified one grandiose narcissist group and three groups with non-narcissistic personalities. Covariate analyses revealed that individuals with narcissistic traits made significantly more significant somatic investments in comparison to two of the three non-narcissistic latent groups. No other significant differences between the narcissistic and non-pathological groups were found. Thus, grandiose narcissists trade off parenting and mating investments to make more significant somatic investments. That is, they expend a larger portion of their energetic resources on maintaining their physical health and careers and similar quantities of energetic resources on maintaining relationships with their offspring and potential romantic partners as individuals without narcissistic personalities.

Keywords: narcissism, grandiose narcissism, HEXACO, trade-offs, mating, parenting, somatic, dark triad

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, L. Marenina

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Stator elements «Vane diffuser + crossover + return channel» of stages with different specific speed were investigated by CFD calculations. The regime parameter was introduced to present efficiency and loss coefficient performance of all elements together. Flow structure demonstrated advantages and disadvantages of design. Flow separation in crossovers was eliminated by its shape modification. Efficiency increased visibly. Calculated CFD performances are in acceptable correlation with predicted ones by engineering design method. The information obtained is useful for design method better calibration.

Keywords: vane diffuser, return channel, crossover, efficiency, loss coefficient, inlet flow angle

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Authors: Katherine Denise Queri

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Around the world, there are many corporations and other business organizations who promote the welfare of the society. They are found inside the communities where they naturally perform work. Their aim is to maximize their respective returns on investment while measuring the impact of their activities on the environment. The Senate in the Philippines formed a bill that seeks to foster sustainable economic and environment development and environment protection, among other things, by institutionalizing the corporate responsibility of corporations, whether domestic and foreign, partnership and other establishment performing business in the country. Under the Senate Bill 1239 or an act institutionalizing corporate social responsibility, providing incentives therefor, and for other purposes, all business organizations are mandated to consider the interest of society by taking responsibility for the impact of their activities on customers, employees, shareholders communities and environment. In return, businesses shall comply with the mandate of this proposed measure shall be entitled to full deductions of the expenses incurred in connection thereto.

Keywords: ateneo, corporate social responsibility (CSR), industrial relations, marketing, up

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Authors: Samuel Ato Dadzie

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The objective of this study is to examine the influence of eclectic paradigm on motivational strategy of foreign subsidiaries in Ghana. This study uses binary regression model, and the analysis was based on 75 manufacturing investments made by MNEs from different countries in 1994–2008. The results indicated that perceived market size increases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) in Ghana, while perceived cultural distance between Ghana and foreign firm’s home countries decreased the probability of foreign firms undertaking an market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Furthermore, extensive international experience decreases the probability of foreign firms undertaking a market seeking (MS) foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ghana. Most of the studies done by earlier researchers were based on the advanced and emerging countries and offered support for the theory, which was used in generalizing the result that multinational corporations (MNCs) normally used the theory regarding investment strategy outside their home country. In using the same theory in the context of Ghana, the result does not offer strong support for the theory. This means that MNCs that come to Sub-Sahara Africa cannot rely much on eclectic paradigm for their motivational strategies because prevailing economic conditions in Ghana are different from that of the advanced and emerging economies where the institutional structures work.

Keywords: foreign subsidiary, motives, Ghana, foreign direct investment

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Authors: K. Y. Chen, Y. N. Jia, H. Chua, C. W. Kan

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In United States (US), the environmental policy went through two stages that are government control period and market mechanism period. In the government control period in the 1970s, environmental problems in U.S. are treated by mandatory direct control method, including promulgation of laws, formulation of emission standards and mandatory installation of pollution treatment equipment. After the 1980s, the environmental policy in U.S. went into the second stage, in which the government strengthened the incentives and coordination effects of market. Since then, environmental governance had been partially replaced by means of economic regulation of the market. Green Tax Policy and Marketable Pollution Permits are good examples of government's economic interventions. U.S. Federal Government regards environmental industry as high-tech industry which is promoted in this period. Therefore, in the paper, we aim to analyse the effect of environmental investment on the sustainable development in the US. Acknowledgment: Authors would like to thank the financial support from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University for this work.

Keywords: United States, public environmental investment, analysis, sustainable development

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Authors: Charles Simplice Mbatsogo Mebo

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With growth picking up again, Africa seems increasingly attractive for its own nationals who return home through new opportunities available for them. The purpose of our research paper is to understand the role of the international partners in Cameroon, with regards to their support for the return and reintegration of migrants. We, therefore, questioned the relevance and effectiveness and efficacy of international instruments in reintegrating returnees to Cameroon. After our analysis that was conducted on the basis of a documentary exploration, interviews, and field surveys, it appears that the contribution of the international partners in Cameroon is proven in relation to their participation in the financing and placement of returned experts. However, their contribution remains insufficient due to their low level of deployment and the insignificant impact of their investments on the reintegration of Cameroonian Diasporas. The research also reveals some exogenous and endogenous constraints that hinder international institutions' actions in terms of accompanying migrants returning to Cameroon. Finally, for a better management of the returnees' issue, it is necessary to set up a mechanism to raise awareness and a coordination system of all international actors involved. It is also relevant to reform the migration policy, build institutional capacities, and improve the juridical-administrative and economic environment so as to favor co-development in Cameroon.

Keywords: international partners, returnees, diaspora, migration policy, co-development

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Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

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Planning models for fresh products is a very useful tool for improving the net profits. To get an efficient supply chain model, several functions should be considered to get a complete simulation of several operational units. We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convenient to choose what area should be planted for three kinds of export fruits considering their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivity minimal unit, and harvest restrictions to develop a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability, and initial investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market. Also, this tool help to support decisions for government and individual farmers.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fresh fruit production, support decision model, agricultural and biosystems engineering

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Authors: Abdulrahman Fahim M. Alsulami

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This paper is dedicated to a detailed investigation of the interaction between the agreement on trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in the regulation of health-related intellectual property rights in Australia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The chosen research object is complex and requires a thorough examination of a set of factors influencing the problem under investigation. At the moment, to the author’s best knowledge’ there is no academic research that would conceptualize and critically compare the regulation of health-related intellectual property rights in these two countries. While there is a substantial amount of information in the literature on certain aspects of the problem, the existing knowledge about certain aspects of the health-related regulatory frameworks in Australia and Saudi Arabia barely explains in detail the specifics of the ways in which the TRIPS agreement interacts with (BITs) in the regulation of health-related intellectual property rights. Therefore, this paper will address an evident research gap by studying an intriguing yet under-researched problem. The paper comprises five subsections. The first subsection provides an overview of the investment climate in Saudi Arabia and Australia with an emphasis on the health care industry. It will cover political, economic, and social factors influencing the investment climate in these countries, the systems of intellectual property rights protection, recent patterns relevant to the investment climate’s development, and key characteristics of the investment climate in the health care industry. The second subsection analyses BITs in Saudi Arabia and Australia in light of the countries’ responsibilities under the TRIPS Agreement. The third subsection provides a critical examination of the interaction between the TRIPS Agreement and BITs in Saudi Arabia on the basis of data collected and analyzed in previous subsections. It will investigate key discrepancies concerning the regulation of health-related intellectual property rights in Saudi Arabia and Australia from the position of BITs’ interaction with the TRIPS Agreement and explore the existing procedures for clarifying priorities between them in regulating health-related intellectual property rights. The fourth subsection of the paper provides recommendations concerning the transformation of BITS into a TRIPS+ dimension in regulating health-related intellectual property rights in Saudi Arabia and Australia. The final subsection provides a summary of differences between the Australian and Saudi BITs from the perspective of the regulation of health-related intellectual property rights under the TRIPS agreement and bilateral investment treaties.

Keywords: Australia, bilateral investment treaties, IP law, public health sector, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: Paule Olivia Akotto

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The recent literature suggests spending between 50%-85% of oil rents. However, there are not yet clear guidelines for allocating this windfall in the public investment system, while most of the resource-rich countries fail to improve their intergenerational mobility. We study a design of the optimal spending system in Senegal, a low-income developing country featuring newly discovered oil fields and low intergenerational mobility. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model in which rural and urban (Dakar and other urban centers henceforth OUC) households face different health, education, and employment opportunities based on their location, affecting their intergenerational mobility. The model captures the relationship between oil rents, public investment, and multidimensional inequality of opportunity. The government invests oil rents in three broad sectors: health and education, road and industries, and agriculture. Through endogenous productivity externality and human capital accumulation, our model generates the predominant position of Dakar and OUC households in terms of access to health, education, and employment in line with Senegal data. Rural households are worse off in all dimensions. We compute the optimal spending policy under two sets of simulation scenarios. Under the current Senegal public investment strategy, which weighs more health and education investments, we find that the reform maximizing the decline in inequality of opportunity between households, frontloads investment during the first eight years of the oil exploitation and spends the perpetual value of oil wealth thereafter. We will then identify the marginal winners and losers associated with this policy and its redistributive implications. Under our second set of scenarios, we will test whether the Senegalese economy can reach better equality of opportunity outcomes under this frontloading reform, by allowing the sectoral shares of investment to vary. The trade-off will be between cutting human capital investment in favor of agricultural and productive infrastructure or increasing the former. We will characterize the optimal policy by specifying where the higher weight should be. We expect that the optimal policy of the second set strictly dominates in terms of equality of opportunity, the optimal policy computed under the current investment strategy. Finally, we will quantify this optimal policy's aggregate and distributional effects on poverty, well-being, and gender earning gaps.

Keywords: developing countries, general equilibrium, inequality of opportunity, oil rents

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Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

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An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimization

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Authors: A. Bolaji Adesoye, Alimi Olorunfemi

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This paper examines the impact of small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) credit financing and financial market development and their shocks on the output growth of Nigeria. The study estimated a VAR model for Nigeria using 1970-2013 annual data series. Unit root tests and cointegration are carried out. The study also explores IRFs and FEVDs in a system that includes output, commercial bank loan to SMEs, domestic credit to private sector by banks, money supply, lending rate and investment. Findings suggest that shocks in commercial bank credit to SMEs has a major impact on the output changes of Nigeria. Money supply shocks also have a sizeable impact on output growth variations amidst other financial instruments. Lastly, neutrality of investment does not hold in Nigeria as it also has impact on output fluctuations.

Keywords: SMEs financing, financial development, investment, output, Nigeria

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Authors: Raihan Zahirah Mauludy Ridwan, Frisca Devi Choirina

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Indonesia with its former presidents has enhanced the bilateral cooperation also multilateral cooperation in terms of economy but the result was not significant towards eradicating poverty, unemployment, income inequality, and economic growth. To eradicate these problems, President Joko Widodo through his several points of Nawacita wants to boost Indonesia’s economic relationship and cooperation which manifested in “Economic Diplomacy” as one of Indonesia’s foreign policy priority and he pitches it in international forums. The economic diplomacy does not only attracts prospective countries but also attracts the foreign businessman and investors. The economic diplomacy includes four sectors which are vital for economic growth, one of them is investment. This paper would like to answer how economic diplomacy can have significant impact towards social welfare, equity and economic growth especially in Indonesia. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of economic diplomacy and its impact toward Indonesia’s welfare, equity, and economic growth. This paper uses the theory of economic diplomacy to link the current international political economic sphere and the impact of economic diplomacy for Indonesia through case study method. The paper affirms that economic diplomacy in investment sector does have significant impact, especially in the development of infrastructures, foreign direct investment in several sectors, and food security.

Keywords: economic diplomacy, economic growth, equity, Indonesia, Joko Widodo, social welfare

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Authors: Nana Weng

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From 2008, Chinese Foreign Direct Investment flows to the European Union continued its rapid rise. Currently, the industrial structure adjustment in developing countries has also been placed on the international movement of factors of production. Now China economy is in an important period of transformation on industrial structure adjustment. Under the international transfer of industry background, the adjustment of industrial structure upgrading and sophistication are the key elements of a successful economic transformation. In order to achieve a virtuous cycle of foreign investment patterns and optimize the industrial structure of foreign direct investment as well, the research on the positive the role of the EU direct investment and how it impact China’s industrial structure optimization and upgrading is of great significance. In this paper, the author explained how the EU as an investment destination is different with the United States and ASEAN. Then, based on the theory of FDI and industrial structure and combining the four kinds of motives of China’s ODI in EU, this paper explained the impact mechanism which has influenced China domestic industrial structure primarily through the Transfer effect, Correlation effect and Competitive effect. On the premise that FDI activities do affect the home country’s domestic industrial structure, this paper made empirical analysis with industrial panel data. With the help of Gray Correlation Method and Limited Distributed Lags, this paper found that China/s ODI in the EU impacted the tertiary industry strongly and had a significant positive impact, particularly the manufacturing industry and the financial industry. This paper also pointed out that Chinese MNEs should realize several issues, such as pay more attention to high-tech industries so that they can make the best use of reverse technology spillover. When Chinese enterprises ‘go out,' they ought to keep in mind that domestic research and development capital contribution can make greater economic growth. Finally, based on theoretical and empirical analysis results, this paper presents the industry choice recommendations in the future of the EU direct investment, particularly through the development of the proper rational industrial policy and industrial development strategic to guide the industrial restructuring and upgrading.

Keywords: china ODI in european union, industrial structure optimization, impact mechanism, empirical analysis

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo

Abstract:

This study explores the perceptions and conducts of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa from ethical and cultural perspectives. It offers a better understanding of how ethical and cultural factors affect Chinese investment in Africa and how the investment projects performed in Africa from both Chinese investors and African stakeholders’ perceptions. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted 30 in-depth interviews with corporate managers. Grounded theory models are developed to link the ethical and cultural factors, actions, and consequences. Results reveal that some ethical concepts like the unity of humans and nature, benevolence, virtue and responsibility, and cultural traits including propriety, righteousness, sincerity, equilibrium, long-term orientation, and principles affect Chinese investors when making investments in Africa. Most Chinese investors harmonize with local managers, cooperate with each other, and are gentle and courteous to partners. They take stable and steady actions and invest in infrastructure and agriculture projects and adopt a virtue governance system in the organization. This study finds that consequently, Chinese investors and local partners take complementary advantages, make achievements sequentially, and therefore both sides can win. They recognize great potentials and make sustainable development in Africa to achieve the Great Together in the future. This study proposes a Chinese ethics and governance system including economic, social, and political perspectives and compares it with alternative systems. It makes implications to the world island theory and propose suggestions to solve the Clash of Civilizations problem.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, ethics, national culture, China, Africa

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Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, Shivam Azad

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The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the stock prices of respective Indian companies. An event study methodology has been employed to study the effect of green bond issuance. For in-depth study and analysis, this paper used different window frames, including 15-15 days, 10-10 days, 7-7days, 6-6 days, and 5-5 days. Further, for better clarity, this paper also used an uneven window period of 7-5 days. The period of study covered all the companies which issued green bonds during the period of 2017-2022; Adani Green Energy, State Bank of India, Power Finance Corporation, Jain Irrigation, and Rural Electrification Corporation, except Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and Indian Railway Finance Corporation, because of data unavailability. The paper used all three event study methods as discussed in earlier literature; 1) constant return model, 2) market-adjusted model, and 3) capital asset pricing model. For the fruitful comparison between results, the study considered cumulative average return (CAR) and buy and hold average return (BHAR) methodology. For checking the statistical significance, a two-tailed t-statistic has been used. All the statistical calculations have been performed in Microsoft Excel 2016. The study found that all other companies have shown positive returns on the event day except for the State Bank of India. The results demonstrated that constant return model outperformed compared to the market-adjusted model and CAPM. The p-value derived from all the methods has shown an almost insignificant impact of the issuance of green bonds on the stock prices of respective companies. The overall analysis states that there’s not much improvement in the market efficiency of the Indian Stock Markets.

Keywords: green bonds, event study methodology, constant return model, market-adjusted model, CAPM

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Authors: Kathleen Frances Haigh, Mieke Nieder-Heitmann, Somayeh Farzad, Mohsen Ali Mandegari, Johann Ferdinand Gorgens

Abstract:

Lignocellulose can be converted to a range of biochemicals and biofuels. Where this is derived from agricultural waste, issues of competition with food are virtually eliminated. One such source of lignocellulose is the South African sugar industry. Lignocellulose could be accessed by changes to the current farming practices and investments in more efficient boilers. The South African sugar industry is struggling due to falling sugar prices and increasing costs and it is proposed that annexing a biorefinery to a sugar mill will broaden the product range and improve viability. Process simulations of the selected chemicals were generated using Aspen Plus®. It was envisaged that a biorefinery would be annexed to a typical South African sugar mill. Bagasse would be diverted from the existing boilers to the biorefinery and mixed with harvest residues. This biomass would provide the feedstock for the biorefinery and the process energy for the biorefinery and sugar mill. Thus, in all scenarios a portion of the biomass was diverted to a new efficient combined heat and power plant (CHP). The Aspen Plus® simulations provided the mass and energy balance data to carry out an economic assessment of each scenarios. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and minimum selling price (MSP) was calculated for each scenario. As a starting point scenarios were generated to investigate the production of ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch syncrude. The bypass to the CHP plant is a useful indicator of the energy demands of the chemical processes. An iterative approach was used to identify a suitable bypass because increasing this value had the combined effect of increasing the amount of energy available and reducing the capacity of the chemical plant. Bypass values ranged from 30% for syncrude production to 50% for combined ethanol and furfural production. A hurdle rate of 15.7% was selected for the IRR. The butanol, combined ethanol and furfural, or the Fischer-Tropsch syncrude scenarios are unsuitable for investment with IRRs of 4.8%, 7.5% and 11.5% respectively. This provides valuable insights into research opportunities. For example furfural from sugarcane bagasse is an established process although the integration of furfural production with ethanol is less well understood. The IRR for the ethanol scenario was 14.7%, which is below the investment criteria, but given the technological maturity it may still be considered for investment. The scenarios which met the investment criteria were the combined ethanol and lactic acid, and the methanol scenarios with IRRs of 20.5% and 16.7%, respectively. These assessments show that the production of biochemicals from lignocellulose can be commercially viable. In addition, this assessment have provided valuable insights for research to improve the commercial viability of additional chemicals and scenarios. This has led to further assessments of the production of itaconic acid, succinic acid, citric acid, xylitol, polyhydroxybutyrate, polyethylene, glucaric acid and glutamic acid.

Keywords: biorefineries, sugar mill, methanol, ethanol

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Authors: Damayanti Sen

Abstract:

The Fair and Equitable Treatment standard has emerged as a core tenet of a formulated legal structure aimed at encouraging investment through the granting of a secure and stable environment for the investor in the Host State. As an absolute, non-contingent standard, it constitutes an independent and reliable system for the protection of the investor and is frequently invoked and applied in investor-state dispute settlement under bilateral and multilateral investment treaties. Thus far, the standard has been examined principally as a measure for determining the responsibility of host countries towards investors and investments. The conduct of investor in applying the Fair and Equitable Treatment Standard is relatively unexplored. Such an assessment may be necessary in light of the development of new defenses to demands of host governments to confine the application of the standard in order to ensure a proper balance between the protection of investors and the inherent right of a State to regulate economic conduct within its borders. This paper explores the implications of including considerations of investor conduct in the determination of whether an act of the host country’s administrative and/or judicial authorities has breached the fair and equitable treatment principle. The need for such defenses are of special concern for governments of developing countries, whose limited resources can affect their ability to provide an effective evaluation of the nature of the proposed investment, and, subsequently, to ensure that the expected benefits are realized. On the basis of conceptual analysis, and emerging international judicial and arbitral case law, this paper suggests that investor duties such as, the avoidance of unconscionable conduct, the reasonable assessment of investment risk in the host country, and a duty to operate an investment reasonably are leading to a new limit upon the fair and equitable treatment standard- one that can be succinctly captured in the phrase “Caveat Investor”.

Keywords: BITs, FET Standard, investor behavior, arbitral case law

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Authors: Sergey Ermolin, Olga Ermolin

Abstract:

A Deep Convolution Neural Network with Triplet Loss is used to identify duplicate images in real-estate advertisements in the presence of image artifacts such as watermarking, cropping, hue/brightness adjustment, and others. The effects of batch normalization, spatial dropout, and various convergence methodologies on the resulting detection accuracy are discussed. For comparative Return-on-Investment study (per industry request), end-2-end performance is benchmarked on both Nvidia Titan GPUs and Intel’s Xeon CPUs. A new real-estate dataset from San Francisco Bay Area is used for this work. Sufficient duplicate detection accuracy is achieved to supplement other database-grounded methods of duplicate removal. The implemented method is used in a Proof-of-Concept project in the real-estate industry.

Keywords: visual recognition, convolutional neural networks, triplet loss, spatial batch normalization with dropout, duplicate removal, advertisement technologies, performance benchmarking

Procedia PDF Downloads 338