Search results for: prediction error

Authors: Ranitha Guna Selvi D, Ramakrishnan R, Mohideen Abdul Kader

Abstract:

Purpose: To study the role of Vision centers in managing preventable blindness through refractive error correction in Rural South India. Methods: A retrospective analysis of patients attending 15 Vision centers in Rural South India from a period of January 2021 to December 2021 was done. Medical records of 10,85,81 patients both new and reviewed, 79,562 newly registered patients and 29,019 review patient’s from15 Vision centers were included for data analysis. All the patients registered at the vision center underwent basic eye examination, including visual acuity, IOP measurement, Slit-lamp examination, retinoscopy, Fundus examination etc. Results: A total of 1,08,581 patients were included in the study. Of the total 1,08,581 patients, 79,562 were newly registered patients at Vision center and 29,019 were review patients. Males were 52,201(48.1%) and Females were 56,308(51.9) among them. The mean age of all examined patients was 41.03 ± 20.9 years (Standard deviation) and ranged from 01 – 113 years. Presenting mean visual acuity was 0.31 ± 0.5 in the right eye and 0.31 ± 0.4 in the left eye. Of the 1,08,581 patients 22,770 patients had refractive error in right eye and 22,721 patients had uncorrected refractive error in left eye. Glass prescription was given to 17,178 (15.8%) patients. 8,109 (7.5%) patients were referred to the base hospital for specialty clinic expert opinion or for cataract surgery. Conclusion: Vision center utilizing teleconsultation for comprehensive eye screening unit is a very effective tool in reducing the avoidable visual impairment caused due to uncorrected refractive error. Vision Centre model is believed to be efficient as it facilitates early detection and management of uncorrected refractive errors.

Keywords: refractive error, uncorrected refractive error, vision center, vision technician, teleconsultation

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Kathleen Joy Hingan, Jessiraye Luienne Catubigan, Carlo Mercado, Janisse RañEses

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers wanted to explore how specialists and resident doctors in the fields of surgery, and obstetrics and gynecology handle their medical errors. They are interested in understanding the factors that contributed to the disclosure of medical error, the feelings after the occurrence of an error, and the way they coped with it given the power relations in place. The researchers conducted semi-structured interviews, transcribed the recordings, and analyzed the transcripts using thematic analysis. They found that doctors disclosed to their superiors and co-residents to cope with and to learn from the errors. In terms of disclosure to patients, the participants told them about the adverse event, but not about the error because of fear for themselves, their colleagues, their institution, and their patient. Doctors also performed compensatory actions to make up for the error and the nondisclosure of its occurrence. These actions functioned as a form of damage control too. Resident doctors and specialists receive different sanctions because of the power structures in the system.

Keywords: coping, disclosure, doctors, interviews, medical errors, thematic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

Abstract:

Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir, seismic attributes

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Trupti Diwan

Abstract:

Predicting student failure at school has changed into a difficult challenge due to both the large number of factors that can affect the reduced performance of students and the imbalanced nature of these kinds of data sets. This paper surveys the two elements needed to make prediction on Students’ Academic Performances which are parameters and methods. This paper also proposes a framework for predicting the performance of engineering students. Genetic programming can be used to predict student failure/success. Ranking algorithm is used to rank students according to their credit points. The framework can be used as a basis for the system implementation & prediction of students’ Academic Performance in Higher Learning Institute.

Keywords: classification, educational data mining, student failure, grammar-based genetic programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

Abstract:

This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 498

Authors: Longxiang Guo, Haoyan Hao, Xueli Sheng, Hanjun Yu, Jingwei Yin

Abstract:

In order to prevent target splitting and ensure the accuracy of fusion, system error registration is an important step in multi-static sonar fusion detection system. To eliminate the inherent system errors including distance error and angle error of each sonar in detection, this paper uses offline estimation method for error registration. Suppose several sonars from different platforms work together to detect a target. The target position detected by each sonar is based on each sonar’s own reference coordinate system. Based on the two-dimensional stereo projection method, this paper uses real-time quality control (RTQC) method and least squares (LS) method to estimate sensor biases. The RTQC method takes the average value of each sonar’s data as the observation value and the LS method makes the least square processing of each sonar’s data to get the observation value. In the underwater acoustic environment, matlab simulation is carried out and the simulation results show that both algorithms can estimate the distance and angle error of sonar system. The performance of the two algorithms is also compared through the root mean square error and the influence of measurement noise on registration accuracy is explored by simulation. The system error convergence of RTQC method is rapid, but the distribution of targets has a serious impact on its performance. LS method can not be affected by target distribution, but the increase of random noise will slow down the convergence rate. LS method is an improvement of RTQC method, which is widely used in two-dimensional registration. The improved method can be used for underwater multi-target detection registration.

Keywords: data fusion, multi-static sonar detection, offline estimation, sensor registration problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

Abstract:

One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Tourkia Guerzou, Abbes Labdelli

Abstract:

Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. The Earthquakes prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This present study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 10^4J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines has been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN with high accuracy was able to predict earthquake parameters; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and that the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, ANN, seismic bumps

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Yong Zhao, Jian He, Cheng Zhang

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases caused by hypertension are extremely threatening to human health, and early diagnosis of hypertension can save a large number of lives. Traditional hypertension detection methods require special equipment and are difficult to detect continuous blood pressure changes. In this regard, this paper first analyzes the principle of heart rate variability (HRV) and introduces sliding window and power spectral density (PSD) to analyze the time domain features and frequency domain features of HRV, and secondly, designs an HRV-based hypertension prediction network by combining Resnet, attention mechanism, and multilayer perceptron, which extracts the frequency domain through the improved ResNet18 features through a modified ResNet18, its fusion with time-domain features through an attention mechanism, and the auxiliary prediction of hypertension through a multilayer perceptron. Finally, the network was trained and tested using the publicly available SHAREE dataset on PhysioNet, and the test results showed that this network achieved 92.06% prediction accuracy for hypertension and outperformed K Near Neighbor(KNN), Bayes, Logistic, and traditional Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) models in prediction performance.

Keywords: feature extraction, heart rate variability, hypertension, residual networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

Abstract:

We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: attractor , cardiac, entropy, holter, mathematical , prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Junyu Chen, Peng Xu

Abstract:

In the context of global efforts to enhance building energy efficiency, accurate thermal load forecasting is crucial for both device sizing and predictive control. Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems are widely used in buildings around the world, yet VRF zonal load prediction has received limited attention. Due to differences between VRF zones in building-level prediction methods, zone-level load forecasting could significantly enhance accuracy. Given that modern VRF systems generate high-quality data, this paper introduces transfer learning to leverage this data and further improve prediction performance. This framework also addresses the challenge of predicting load for building zones with no historical data, offering greater accuracy and usability compared to pure white-box models. The study first establishes an initial variable set of VRF zonal building loads and generates a foundational white-box database using EnergyPlus. Key variables for VRF zonal loads are identified using methods including SRRC, PRCC, and Random Forest. XGBoost and LSTM are employed to generate pre-trained black-box models based on the white-box database. Finally, real-world data is incorporated into the pre-trained model using transfer learning to enhance its performance in operational buildings. In this paper, zone-level load prediction was integrated with transfer learning, and a framework was proposed to improve the accuracy and applicability of VRF zonal load prediction.

Keywords: zonal load prediction, variable refrigerant flow (VRF) system, transfer learning, energyplus

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Mo-Se Lee, Cheol-Hwi Ahn, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

Abstract:

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as effective solution for recognizing and classifying images, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems in various fields. In this study, we try to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. In specific, we propose to apply CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (up or down) by using a graph as its input. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics a person who looks at the graph and predicts whether the trend will go up or down. Our proposed model consists of four steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and 20 days. And then, it creates graphs for each interval in step 2. In the next step, CNN classifiers are trained using the graphs generated in the previous step. In step 4, it optimizes the hyper parameters of the trained model by using the validation dataset. To validate our model, we will apply it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 1,986 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). The experimental dataset will include 14 technical indicators such as CCI, Momentum, ROC and daily closing price of KOSPI200 of Korean stock market.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, Korean stock market, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Afroze Ibrahim Baqapuri, Ilya Trofimov

Abstract:

Sponsored search is a multi-billion dollar industry and makes up a major source of revenue for search engines (SE). Click-through-rate (CTR) estimation plays a crucial role for ads selection, and greatly affects the SE revenue, advertiser traffic and user experience. We propose a novel architecture of solving CTR prediction problem by combining artificial neural networks (ANN) with decision trees. First, we compare ANN with respect to other popular machine learning models being used for this task. Then we go on to combine ANN with MatrixNet (proprietary implementation of boosted trees) and evaluate the performance of the system as a whole. The results show that our approach provides a significant improvement over existing models.

Keywords: neural networks, sponsored search, web advertisement, click prediction, click-through rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Akram Khaleghei, Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Kaewkarn Phuangsombat, Arthit Phuangsombat, Anupun Terdwongworakul

Abstract:

Hard seeds will not grow and can cause mold in sprouting process. Thus, the hard seeds need to be separated from the normal seeds. Near infrared hyperspectral imaging in a range of 900 to 1700 nm was implemented to develop a model by partial least squares discriminant analysis to discriminate the hard seeds from the normal seeds. The orientation of the seeds was also studied to compare the performance of the models. The model based on hilum-up orientation achieved the best result giving the coefficient of determination of 0.98, and root mean square error of prediction of 0.07 with classification accuracy was equal to 100%.

Keywords: mung bean, near infrared, germinatability, hard seed

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Seun Mayowa Sunday

Abstract:

Loan prediction is one of the most significant and recognised fields of research in the banking, insurance, and the financial security industries. Some prediction systems on the market include the construction of static software. However, due to the fact that static software only operates with strictly regulated rules, they cannot aid customers beyond these limitations. Application of many machine learning (ML) techniques are required for loan prediction. Four separate machine learning models, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), and logistic regression, are used to create the loan prediction model. Using the anaconda navigator and the required machine learning (ML) libraries, models are created and evaluated using the appropriate measuring metrics. From the finding, the random forest performs with the highest accuracy of 80.17% which was later implemented into the Django framework. For real-time testing, the web application is deployed on the Alibabacloud which is among the top 4 biggest cloud computing provider. Hence, to the best of our knowledge, this research will serve as the first academic paper which combines the model development and the Django framework, with the deployment into the Alibaba cloud computing application.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, django, cloud computing, alibaba cloud

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Himayatullah Khan

Abstract:

This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Okike Benjamin, Garba E. J. D.

Abstract:

The researcher has developed a new encryption technique known as Merged Irregular Transposition Cipher. In this cipher method of encryption, a message to be encrypted is split into parts and each part encrypted separately. Before the encrypted message is transmitted to the recipient(s), the positions of the split in the encrypted messages could be swapped to ensure more security. This work seeks to develop a model by considering the split number, S and the average number of characters per split, L as the message under consideration is split from 2 through 10. Again, after developing the model, the error level in the model would be determined.

Keywords: merged irregular transposition, error level, model estimation, message splitting

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Leila Keshavarz Afshar, Hedieh Sajedi

Abstract:

Estimation of biological brain age from MR images is a topic that has been much addressed in recent years due to the importance it attaches to early diagnosis of diseases such as Alzheimer's. In this paper, we use a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to provide a method for estimating the biological age of the brain. The 3D-CNN model is trained by MRI data that has been normalized. In addition, to reduce computation while saving overall performance, some effectual slices are selected for age estimation. By this method, the biological age of individuals using selected normalized data was estimated with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 4.82 years.

Keywords: brain age estimation, biological age, 3D-CNN, deep learning, T1-weighted image, SPM, preprocessing, MRI, canny, gray matter

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Sanja Seljan, Ivan Dunđer

Abstract:

The paper presents combined automatic speech recognition (ASR) for English and machine translation (MT) for English and Croatian in the domain of business correspondence. The first part presents results of training the ASR commercial system on two English data sets, enriched by error analysis. The second part presents results of machine translation performed by online tool Google Translate for English and Croatian and Croatian-English language pairs. Human evaluation in terms of usability is conducted and internal consistency calculated by Cronbach's alpha coefficient, enriched by error analysis. Automatic evaluation is performed by WER (Word Error Rate) and PER (Position-independent word Error Rate) metrics, followed by investigation of Pearson’s correlation with human evaluation.

Keywords: automatic machine translation, integrated language technologies, quality evaluation, speech recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 484

Authors: Sai Sankalp Vemavarapu

Abstract:

This paper discusses the application of machine learning in the field of transportation engineering for predicting engineering properties of pavement more accurately and efficiently. Predicting the elastic properties aid us in assessing the current road conditions and taking appropriate measures to avoid any inconvenience to commuters. This improves the longevity and sustainability of the pavement layer while reducing its overall life-cycle cost. As an example, we have implemented differential evolution (DE) in the back-calculation of the elastic modulus of multi-layered pavement. The proposed DE global optimization back-calculation approach is integrated with a forward response model. This approach treats back-calculation as a global optimization problem where the cost function to be minimized is defined as the root mean square error in measured and computed deflections. The optimal solution which is elastic modulus, in this case, is searched for in the solution space by the DE algorithm. The best DE parameter combinations and the most optimum value is predicted so that the results are reproducible whenever the need arises. The algorithm’s performance in varied scenarios was analyzed by changing the input parameters. The prediction was well within the permissible error, establishing the supremacy of DE.

Keywords: cost function, differential evolution, falling weight deflectometer, genetic algorithm, global optimization, metaheuristic algorithm, multilayered pavement, pavement condition assessment, pavement layer moduli back calculation

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Tung-Hui Hsu, Wen-Yuh Jywe

Abstract:

Five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools (three linear and two rotary axes) are ideally suited to the fabrication of complex work pieces, such as dies, turbo blades, and cams. The locations of the axis average line and centerline of the rotary axes strongly influence the performance of these machines; however, techniques to compensate for eccentric error in the rotary axes remain weak. This paper proposes optical (Non-Bar) techniques capable of calibrating five-axis CNC machine tools and compensating for eccentric error in the rotary axes. This approach employs the measurement path in ISO/CD 10791-6 to determine the eccentric error in two rotary axes, for which compensatory measures can be implemented. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed techniques can improve the performance of various five-axis CNC machine tools by more than 90%. Finally, a result of the cutting test using a B-type five-axis CNC machine tool confirmed to the usefulness of this proposed compensation technique.

Keywords: calibration, compensation, rotary axis, five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools, eccentric error, optical calibration system, ISO/CD 10791-6

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

Abstract:

Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e., meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluations of rail-pads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction, mechanical engineering design

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

Abstract:

As for any nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Among lots factors, stress has been reported to have significant influence on human performance. Stress level of a person may fluctuate over time. To handle the possibility over time, robust stress management program is required, especially in nuclear power plants. Therefore, to overcome the possibility of human errors, this study aimed to develop a stress management program as a part of Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) Program for the workers in nuclear power plants. The meaning of FFD might be somewhat different by research objectives, appropriate definition of FFD was accomplished in this study with special reference to human error prevention, and diverse stress factors were elicited for management of human error susceptibility. In addition, with consideration of conventional FFD management programs, appropriate tests and interventions were introduced over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, job rotation, and disemployment as well as Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP). The results showed that most tools mainly concentrated their weights on common organizational factors such as Demands, Supports, and Relationships in sequence, which were referred as major stress factors.

Keywords: human error, accident prevention, work performance, stress, fatigue

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: E. Marušić-Paloka, I. Pažanin, M. Prša

Abstract:

Subject of this study is the stationary heat conduction problem through a pipe filled with incompressible viscous fluid. In previous work, we observed the existence and uniqueness theorems for the corresponding boundary-value problem and within we have taken into account the effects of the pipe's dilatation due to the temperature of the fluid inside of the pipe. The main difficulty comes from the fact that flow domain changes depending on the solution of the observed heat equation leading to a non-standard coupled governing problem. The goal of this work is to find solution estimate since the exact solution of the studied problem is not possible to determine. We use an asymptotic expansion in order of a small parameter which is presented as a heat expansion coefficient of the pipe's material. Furthermore, an error estimate is provided for the mentioned asymptotic approximation of the solution for inner area of the pipe. Close to the boundary, problem becomes more complex so different approaches are observed, mainly Theory of Perturbations and Separations of Variables. In view of that, error estimate for the whole approximation will be provided with additional software simulations of gotten situation.

Keywords: asymptotic analysis, dilated pipe, error estimate, heat conduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Omid Kalatpour, Mohammadreza Ajdari

Abstract:

This article studied the possible causes of human error-induced incidents in the petrochemical industry maintenance activities by using Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The purpose of the study was anticipating and identifying these causes and proposing corrective and preventive actions. Maintenance department in a petrochemical company was selected for research. A checklist of human error-induced incidents was developed based on four HFACS main levels and nineteen sub-groups. Hierarchical task analysis (HTA) technique was used to identify maintenance activities and tasks. The main causes of possible incidents were identified by checklist and recorded. Corrective and preventive actions were defined depending on priority. Analyzing the worksheets of 444 activities in four levels of HFACS showed 37.6% of the causes were at the level of unsafe actions, 27.5% at the level of unsafe supervision, 20.9% at the level of preconditions for unsafe acts and 14% of the causes were at the level of organizational effects. The HFACS sub-groups showed errors (24.36%) inadequate supervision (14.89%) and violations (13.26%) with the most frequency. According to findings of this study, increasing the training effectiveness of operators and supervision improvement respectively are the most important measures in decreasing the human error-induced incidents in petrochemical industry maintenance.

Keywords: human error, petrochemical industry, maintenance, HFACS

Procedia PDF Downloads 242