Search results for: extreme precipitation events

Authors: Karina Santos Silvério, Fátima Carvalho, Maria Adelaide Almeida

Abstract:

The impacts caused by anthropogenic actions on the water environment have been one of the main challenges of modern society. Population growth, added to water scarcity and climate change, points to a need to increase the resilience of production systems to increase efficiency regarding the management of wastewater generated in the different processes. Based on this context, the study developed under the NETA project (New Strategies in Wastewater Treatment) aimed to evaluate the efficiency of the Chemical Precipitation Process (CPP), using the hydrated lime (Ca(OH )₂) as a reagent in wastewater from the agroindustry sector, namely swine wastewater, slaughterhouse and urban wastewater, in order to make the productive means 100% circular, causing a direct positive impact on the environment. The purpose of CPP is to innovate in the field of effluent treatment technologies, as it allows rapid application and is economically profitable. In summary, the study was divided into four main stages: 1) Application of the reagent in a single step, raising the pH to 12.5 2) Obtaining sludge and treated effluent. 3) Natural neutralization of the effluent through Carbonation using atmospheric CO₂. 4) Characterization and evaluation of the feasibility of the chemical precipitation technique in the treatment of different wastewaters through the technique of determining the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and other supporting physical-chemical parameters. The results showed an approximate average removal efficiency above 80% for all effluents, highlighting the swine effluent with 90% removal, followed by urban effluent with 88% and slaughterhouse with 81% on average. Significant improvement was also obtained with regard to color and odor removal after Carbonation to pH 8.00.

Keywords: agroindustry wastewater, urban wastewater, natural carbonatation, chemical precipitation technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Charlotte Dreger, Erik Bollaert

Abstract:

This paper presents two environmentally-friendly coastal structures realized on the Lake of Neuchâtel. Both structures reflect current environmental issues of concern on the lake and have been strongly affected by extreme meteorological conditions between their period of design and their actual operational period. The Lake of Neuchatel is one of the biggest Swiss lakes and measures around 38 km in length and 8.2 km in width, for a maximum water depth of 152 m. Its particular topographical alignment, situated in between the Swiss Plateau and the Jura mountains, combines strong winds and large fetch values, resulting in significant wave heights during storm events at both north-east and south-west lake extremities. In addition, due to flooding concerns, historically, lake levels have been lowered by several meters during the Jura correction works in the 19th and 20th century. Hence, during storm events, continuous erosion of the vulnerable molasse shorelines and sand banks generate frequent and abundant littoral transport from the center of the lake to its extremities. This phenomenon does not only cause disturbances of the ecosystem, but also generates numerous problems at natural or man-made infrastructures located along the shorelines, such as reed plants, harbor entrances, canals, etc. A first example is provided at the southwestern extremity, near the city of Yverdon, where an ensemble of 11 small islands, the Iles des Vernes, have been artificially created in view of enhancing biological conditions and food availability for bird species during their migration process, replacing at the same time two larger islands that were affected by lack of morphodynamics and general vegetalization of their surfaces. The article will present the concept and dimensioning of these islands based on 2D numerical modelling, as well as the realization and follow-up campaigns. In particular, the influence of several major storm events that occurred immediately after the works will be pointed out. Second, a sediment retention dike is discussed at the northeastern extremity, at the entrance of the Canal de la Broye into the lake. This canal is heavily used for navigation and suffers from frequent and significant sedimentation at its outlet. The new coastal structure has been designed to minimize sediment deposits around the exutory of the canal into the lake, by retaining the littoral transport during storm events. The article will describe the basic assumptions used to design the dike, as well as the construction works and follow-up campaigns. Especially the huge influence of changing meteorological conditions on the littoral transport of the Lake of Neuchatel since project design ten years ago will be pointed out. Not only the intensity and frequency of storm events are increasing, but also the main wind directions alter, affecting in this way the efficiency of the coastal structure in retaining the sediments.

Keywords: meteorological evolution, sediment transport, lake of Neuchatel, numerical modelling, environmental measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Arindam Chowdhury, Andres Tremante, Mohammadtaghi Moravej, Bodhisatta Hajra, Ioannis Zisis, Peter Irwin

Abstract:

Extreme wind events, such as hurricanes, have caused significant damage to buildings, resulting in losses worth millions of dollars. The roof of a building is most vulnerable to wind-induced damage due to the high suctions experienced by the roof in extreme wind conditions. Wind turbines fitted to buildings can help generate energy, but to our knowledge, their application to wind load mitigation is not well known. This paper presents results from an experimental study to assess the effect of small wind turbines (developed and patented by the first and second authors) on the wind loads on a low rise building roof. The tests were carried out for an open terrain at the Wall of Wind (WOW) experimental facility at Florida International University (FIU), Miami, Florida, USA, for three cases – bare roof, roof fitted with wind turbines placed closer to the roof edges, and roof with wind turbines placed away from the roof edges. Results clearly indicate that the presence of the wind turbines reduced the mean and peak pressure coefficients (less suction) on the roof when compared to the bare deck case. Furthermore, the peak pressure coefficients were found to be lower (less suction) when the wind turbines were placed closer to the roof, than away from the roof. Flow visualization studies using smoke and gravel clearly showed that the presence of the turbines disrupted the formation of vortices formed by cornering winds, thereby reducing roof suctions and preventing lift off of roof coverings. This study shows that the wind turbines besides generating wind energy, can be used for mitigating wind induced damage to the building roof. Future research must be directed towards understanding the effect of these wind turbines on other roof geometries (e.g. hip/gable) in different terrain conditions.

Keywords: wall of wind, wind loads, wind turbine, building

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Zongyao Sha

Abstract:

Green vegetation plays a vital role in energy flows and matter cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, and vegetation phenology may not only be influenced by but also impose active feedback on climate changes. The phenological events of vegetation, such as the start of the season (SOS), end of the season (EOS), and length of the season (LOS), can respond to climate changes and affect gross primary productivity (GPP). Here we coupled satellite remote sensing imagery with FLUXNET observations to systematically map the shift of SOS, EOS, and LOS in global vegetated areas and explored their response to climate fluctuations and feedback on GPP during the last two decades. Results indicated that SOS advanced significantly, at an average rate of 0.19 days/year at a global scale, particularly in the northern hemisphere above the middle latitude (≥30°N) and that EOS was slightly delayed during the past two decades, resulting in prolonged LOS in 72.5% of the vegetated area. The climate factors, including seasonal temperature and precipitation, are attributed to the shifts in vegetation phenology but with a high spatial and temporal difference. The study revealed interactions between vegetation phenology and climate changes. Both temperature and precipitation affect vegetation phenology. Higher temperature as a direct consequence of global warming advanced vegetation green-up date. On the other hand, 75.9% and 20.2% of the vegetated area showed a positive correlation and significant positive correlation between annual GPP and length of vegetation growing season (LOS), likely indicating an enhancing effect on vegetation productivity and thus increased carbon uptake from the shifted vegetation phenology. Our study highlights a comprehensive view of the vegetation phenology changes of the global terrestrial ecosystems during the last two decades. The interactions between the shifted vegetation phenology and climate changes may provide useful information for better understanding the future trajectory of global climate changes. The feedback on GPP from the shifted vegetation phenology may serve as an adaptation mechanism for terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate global warming through improved carbon uptake from the atmosphere.

Keywords: vegetation phenology, growing season, NPP, correlation analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

Abstract:

Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 29

Authors: Flavia Cordeiro, Fabio Silva, Alvaro Eiras, Jose Luiz Acebal

Abstract:

Aedes aegypti is present in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world and is a vector of several diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya, zika etc. The growth in the number of arboviruses cases in the last decades became a matter of great concern worldwide. Meteorological factors like mean temperature and precipitation are known to influence the infestation by the species through effects on physiology and ecology, altering the fecundity, mortality, lifespan, dispersion behaviour and abundance of the vector. Models able to describe the dynamics of the vector population size should then take into account the meteorological variables. The relationship between meteorological factors and the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti adult females are studied to provide a good set of predictors to model the dynamics of the mosquito population size. The time-series data of capture of adult females of a public health surveillance program from the city of Lavras, MG, Brazil had its association with precipitation, humidity and temperature analysed through a set of statistical methods for time series analysis commonly adopted in Signal Processing, Information Theory and Neuroscience. Cross-correlation, multicollinearity test and whitened cross-correlation were applied to determine in which time lags would occur the influence of meteorological variables on the dynamics of the mosquito abundance. Among the findings, the studied case indicated strong collinearity between humidity and precipitation, and precipitation was selected to form a pair of descriptors together with temperature. In the techniques used, there were observed significant associations between infestation indicators and both temperature and precipitation in short, mid and long terms, evincing that those variables should be considered in entomological models and as public health indicators. A descriptive model used to test the results exhibits a strong correlation to data.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, cross-correlation, multicollinearity, meteorological variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Varangkana Thaotumpitak, Jarukorn Sripradite, Saharuetai Jeamsripong

Abstract:

Environmental contamination from wastewater discharges originated from anthropogenic activities introduces the accumulation of enteropathogenic bacteria in aquatic animals, especially in oysters, and in shellfish harvesting areas. The consumption of raw or partially cooked oysters can be a risk for seafood-borne diseases in human. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the presence of Salmonella in oyster meat samples, and environmental factors (ambient air temperature, relative humidity, gust wind speed, average wind speed, tidal condition, precipitation and season) by using the principal component analysis (PCA). One hundred and forty-four oyster meat samples were collected from four oyster harvesting areas in Phang Nga province, Thailand from March 2016 to February 2017. The prevalence of Salmonella of each site was ranged from 25.0-36.11% in oyster meat. The results of PCA showed that ambient air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation were main factors correlated with Salmonella detection in these oysters. Positive relationship was observed between positive Salmonella in the oysters and relative humidity (PC1=0.413) and precipitation (PC1=0.607), while the negative association was found between ambient air temperature (PC1=0.338) and the presence of Salmonella in oyster samples. These results suggested that lower temperature and higher precipitation and higher relative humidity will possibly effect on Salmonella contamination of oyster meat. During the high risk period, harvesting of oysters should be prohibited to reduce pathogenic bacteria contamination and to minimize a hazard of humans from Salmonellosis.

Keywords: oyster, Phang Nga Bay, principal component analysis, Salmonella

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Ana Gabriela Diaz, Luis Fermín Córdova, Jr., Roberto Lamazares

Abstract:

The island of Cuba, the largest of the Greater Antilles, is located in the tropical North Atlantic. It is annually affected by numerous weather events, which have caused severe damage to our coastal areas. In the same way that many other coastlines around the world, the beautiful beaches of the Hicacos Peninsula also suffer from erosion. This leads to a structural regression of the coastline. If measures are not taken, the hotels will be exposed to the advance of the sea, and it will be a serious problem for the economy. With the aim of studying the intensity of this type of activity, specialists of group of coastal and marine engineering from CIH, in the framework of the research conducted within the project MEGACOSTAS 2, provide their research to simulate extreme events and assess their impact in coastal areas, mainly regarding the definition of flood volumes and morphodynamic changes in sandy beaches. The main objective of this work is the evaluation of the process of Varadero beach erosion (the coastal sector has an important impact in the country's economy) on the Hicacos Peninsula for different paths of hurricanes. The mathematical model XBeach, which was integrated into the Coastal engineering system introduced by the project of MEGACOSTA 2 to determine the area and the more critical profiles for the path of hurricanes under study, was applied. The results of this project have shown that Center area is the greatest dynamic area in the simulation of the three paths of hurricanes under study, showing high erosion volumes and the greatest average length of regression of the coastline, from 15- 22 m.

Keywords: beach, erosion, mathematical model, coastal areas

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Djamila Nebbali, Rezki Nebbali, Ahmed Ouibrahim

Abstract:

This study focuses on the cooling of a photovoltaic panel (PV). Indeed, the cooling improves the conversion capacity of this one and maintains, under extreme conditions of air temperature, the panel temperature at an appreciable level which avoids the altering. To do this, a fan provides forced circulation of air. Because the fan is supplied by the panel, it is necessary to determine the optimum operating point that unites efficiency of the PV with the consumption of the fan. For this matter, numerical simulations are performed at varying mass flow rates of air, under two extreme air temperatures (50°C, 25°C) and a fixed solar radiation (1000 W.m2) in a case of no wind.

Keywords: energy conversion, efficiency, balance energy, solar cell

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula

Abstract:

Access to clean drinking water becomes scarce due to the increase in extreme weather events because of the rise in the average global temperatures and climate change. By 2030, approximately 47% of the world’s population will face water shortages due to uncertainty in seasonal rainfall. Over 10000 varieties of synthetic dyes are commercially available in the market and used by textile and paper industries, negatively impacting human health when ingested. Besides humans, textile dyes have a negative impact on aquatic ecosystems by increasing biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand. This study assesses different treatment methods that remove dyes from textile wastewater while focusing on energy, economic, and engineering aspects of the treatment processes.

Keywords: textile wastewater, dye removal, treatment methods, hazardous pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Lixin Zhao, Genmao Zhou

Abstract:

Traditional acid in-situ leaching (ISL) is not suitable for the sandstone uranium deposit with low permeability and high content of carbonate minerals, because of the blocking of calcium sulfate precipitates. Another factor influences the uranium acid in-situ leaching is that the pyrite in ore rocks will react with oxidation reagent and produce lots of sulfate ions which may speed up the precipitation process of calcium sulphate and consume lots of oxidation reagent. Due to the advantages such as less chemical reagent consumption and groundwater pollution, CO₂+O₂ in-situ leaching method has become one of the important research areas in uranium mining. China is the second country where CO₂+O₂ ISL has been adopted in industrial uranium production of the world. It is shown that the CO₂+O₂ ISL in China has been successfully developed. The reaction principle, technical process, well field design and drilling engineering, uranium-bearing solution processing, etc. have been fully studied. At current stage, several uranium mines use CO₂+O₂ ISL method to extract uranium from the ore-bearing aquifers. The industrial application and development potential of CO₂+O₂ ISL method in China are summarized. By using CO₂+O₂ neutral leaching technology, the problem of calcium carbonate and calcium sulfate precipitation have been solved during uranium mining. By reasonably regulating the amount of CO₂ and O₂, related ions and hydro-chemical conditions can be controlled within the limited extent for avoiding the occurrence of calcium sulfate and calcium carbonate precipitation. Based on this premise, the demand of CO₂+O₂ uranium leaching has been met to the maximum extent, which not only realizes the effective leaching of uranium, but also avoids the occurrence and precipitation of calcium carbonate and calcium sulfate, realizing the industrial development of the sandstone type uranium deposit.

Keywords: CO₂+O₂ ISL, industrial production, well field layout, uranium processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Sameh Abu El-Soud, Zahra Zayed, Safwan Khedr, Adel M. Belal

Abstract:

The population increase in Egypt is urging for horizontal land development which became a demand to allow the benefit of different natural resources and expand from the narrow Nile valley. However, this development is facing challenges preventing land development and agriculture development. Desertification and moving sand dunes in the west sector of Egypt are considered the major obstacle that is blocking the ideal land use and development. In the proposed research, the sandy soil is treated biologically using Bacillus pasteurii bacteria as these bacteria have the ability to bond the sand partials to change its state of loose sand to cemented sand, which reduces the moving ability of the sand dunes. The procedure of implementing the Microbial Induced Carbonate Precipitation Technique (MICP) technique is examined, and the different factors affecting on this process such as the medium of bacteria sample preparation, the optical density (OD600), the reactant concentration, injection rates and intervals are highlighted. Based on the findings of the MICP treatment for sandy soil, conclusions and future recommendations are reached.

Keywords: soil stabilization, biological treatment, microbial induced carbonate precipitation (MICP), sand cementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Getachew Demesa Bexa

Abstract:

Building resilience to withstand extreme weather events through reduction and mitigation measures towards predicted disasters with appropriate contingency plans complemented by timely and effective emergency response demands committed and integrated/coordinated efforts. The 2006 flood disaster that claimed more than 200 people in Dire Dawa town shifted the paradigm from reactive to proactive engagement among government, NGOs and communities to contain future disasters through resilience building. Dire Dawa CMDRR Association is a model community organization that demonstrated the basic minimum and turning adversity into opportunity by mobilizing vulnerable community members. Meanwhile the birth of African Centre for Disaster Risk Management is a milestone in changing the image of the country and beyond in resilience building while linking relief and development.

Keywords: Dire Dawa, disaster, resilience, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Sijo S. Thomas, S. Hridya, Manoj Mohan, Bibin Jacob, Hysen Thomas

Abstract:

Ferrites are iron based oxides with technologically significant magnetic properties and have widespread applications in medicine, technology, and industry. There has been a growing interest in the study of magnetic, electrical and structural properties of mixed ferrites. In the present work, structural and magnetic properties of Nickel and Calcium substituted Fe₃O₄ nanoparticles were investigated. NiₓCa₁₋ₓFe₂O₄ nanoparticles (x = 0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) were synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method and the samples were subsequently sintered at 900°C. The magnetic and structural properties of NiₓCa₁₋ₓFe₂O₄ were investigated using Vibrating Sample Magnetometer and X-Ray diffraction. The XRD results revealed that the synthesized particles have nanometer size and it varies from 46-72 nm as the calcium concentration diminishes. The variation is explained based on the increase in the reaction rate with Ni concentration which favors the formation of ultrafine particles of mixed ferrites. VSM results show pure CaFe₂O₄ exhibit paramagnetic behavior with low saturation value. As the concentration of Ca decreases, a transition occurs from paramagnetic state to ferromagnetic state. When the concentration of Ni becomes dominant, magnetic saturation, coercivity, and retentivity become high, indicating near ferromagnetic behavior of the compound.

Keywords: co-precipitation, ferrites, magnetic behavior, structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Priyal Chikhaliwala, Sudeshna Chandra

Abstract:

Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors with poor prognosis. This is because liver cancer does not exhibit any symptoms in early stage of disease. Increased serum level of AFP is clinically considered as a diagnostic marker for liver malignancy. The present diagnostic modalities include various types of immunoassays, radiological studies, and biopsy. However, these tests undergo slow response times, require significant sample volumes, achieve limited sensitivity and ultimately become expensive and burdensome to patients. Considering all these aspects, electrochemical biosensors based on dendrimer-magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) was designed. Dendrimers are novel nano-sized, three-dimensional molecules with monodispersed structures. Poly-amidoamine (PAMAM) dendrimers with eight –NH₂ groups using ethylenediamine as a core molecule were synthesized using Michael addition reaction. Dendrimers provide added the advantage of not only stabilizing Fe₃O₄ NPs but also displays capability of performing multiple electron redox events and binding multiple biological ligands to its dendritic end-surface. Fe₃O₄ NPs due to its superparamagnetic behavior can be exploited for magneto-separation process. Fe₃O₄ NPs were stabilized with PAMAM dendrimer by in situ co-precipitation method. The surface coating was examined by FT-IR, XRD, VSM, and TGA analysis. Electrochemical behavior and kinetic studies were evaluated using CV which revealed that the dendrimer-Fe₃O₄ NPs can be looked upon as electrochemically active materials. Electrochemical immunosensor was designed by immobilizing anti-AFP onto dendrimer-MNPs by gluteraldehyde conjugation reaction. The bioconjugates were then incubated with AFP antigen. The immunosensor was characterized electrochemically indicating successful immuno-binding events. The binding events were also further studied using magnetic particle imaging (MPI) which is a novel imaging modality in which Fe₃O₄ NPs are used as tracer molecules with positive contrast. Multicolor MPI was able to clearly localize AFP antigen and antibody and its binding successfully. Results demonstrate immense potential in terms of biosensing and enabling MPI of AFP in clinical diagnosis.

Keywords: alpha-fetoprotein, dendrimers, electrochemical biosensors, magnetic nanoparticles

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Longqing Li

Abstract:

The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: S. Tayyebi, F. Mirjalili, H. Samadi, A. Nemati

Abstract:

In this study, hydroxyapatite-Alumina nano composite powder, containing 15,20 and 25% weight percent of reinforced alumina were prepared by chemical precipitation from the reaction between calcium nitrate tetrahydrate and di-ammonium hydrogen phosphate with ratio of Ca / p = 1.67 and different percentage of aluminum nitrate nona hydrate in different pH of 9,10 and 11. The microstructure and thermal stability of samples were measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The results showed that the presence of reinforced alumina phase reduced the degree of crystallinity of hydroxyapatite phase and increased its decomposition to tricalcium phosphate phase. Microstructural analysis showed that the hydroxyapatite-alumina nano composite powder was obtained with spherical shape and size of less than 100 nm.

Keywords: biomaterial, hydroxyapatite, alumina, nano composite, precipitation method

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Jeffrey M. Byford

Abstract:

The conceptualized theory of decision making on historical events often does not conform to uniform beliefs among students. When presented the opportunity, many students have differing opinions and rationales associated with historical events and outcomes. The intent of this paper was to provide students with the economic, social and political dilemmas associated with the autonomy of East Berlin. Students ranked seven possible actions from the most to least acceptable. In addition, students were required to provide both positive and negative factors for each decision and relative ranking. Results from this activity suggested that while most students chose a financial action towards West Berlin, some students had trouble justifying their actions.

Keywords: content-centered learning, cold war, Berlin, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Dagim Dessalegn Haile

Abstract:

This study investigated the interaction between the drivers' socio-demographic background information (age, gender, and driving experience) and the risky events score in the i-DREAMS platform. Further, the relationship between the participants' background driving behavior and the i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores of risky events was also investigated. The i-DREAMS acronym stands for Smart Driver and Road Environment Assessment and Monitoring System. It is a European Union Horizon 2020 funded project consisting of 13 partners, researchers, and industry partners from 8 countries. A total of 25 Belgian car drivers (16 male and nine female) were considered for analysis. Drivers' ages were categorized into ages 18-25, 26-45, 46-65, and 65 and older. Drivers' driving experience was also categorized into four groups: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 years. Drivers are classified into two clusters based on the recorded score for risky events during phase 1 (baseline) using risky events; acceleration, deceleration, speeding, tailgating, overtaking, and lane discipline. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering using SPSS shows Cluster 1 drivers are safer drivers, and Cluster 2 drivers are identified as risky drivers. The analysis result indicated no significant relationship between age groups, gender, and experience groups except for risky events like acceleration, tailgating, and overtaking in a few phases. This is mainly because the fewer participants create less variability of socio-demographic background groups. Repeated measure ANOVA shows that cluster 2 drivers improved more than cluster 1 drivers for tailgating, lane discipline, and speeding events. A positive relationship between background drivers' behavior and i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores is observed. It implies that car drivers who in the questionnaire data indicate committing more risky driving behavior demonstrate more risky driver behavior in the i-DREAMS observed driving data.

Keywords: i-dreams, car drivers, socio-demographic background, risky events

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

Abstract:

Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Gokul Prasad, Pennan Chinnasamy

Abstract:

The degradation of groundwater resources, attributed to factors such as excessive abstraction and contamination, has emerged as a global concern. This study delves into the stable isotopes of water) in a hard-rock aquifer situated in the Upper Godavari watershed, an agriculturally rich region in India underlain by Basalt. The higher groundwater draft (> 90%) poses significant risks; comprehending groundwater sources, flow patterns, and their environmental impacts is pivotal for researchers and water managers. The region has faced five droughts in the past 20 years; four are categorized as medium. The recharge rates are variable and show a very minimum contribution to groundwater. The rainfall pattern shows vast variability, with the region receiving seasonal monsoon rainfall for just four months and the rest of the year experiencing minimal rainfall. This research closely monitored monsoon precipitation inputs and examined spatial and temporal fluctuations in δ18O and δ2H in both groundwater and precipitation. By discerning individual recharge events during monsoons, it became possible to identify periods when evaporation led to groundwater quality deterioration, characterized by elevated salinity and stable isotope values in the return flow. The locally derived meteoric water line (LMWL) (δ2H = 6.72 * δ18O + 1.53, r² = 0.6) provided valuable insights into the groundwater system. The leftward shift of the Nashik LMWL in relation to the GMWL and LMWL indicated groundwater evaporation (-33 ‰), supported by spatial variations in electrical conductivity (EC) data. Groundwater in the eastern and northern watershed areas exhibited higher salinity > 3000uS/cm, expanding > 40% of the area compared to the western and southern regions due to geological disparities (alluvium vs basalt). The findings emphasize meteoric precipitation as the primary groundwater source in the watershed. However, spatial variations in isotope values and chemical constituents indicate other contributing factors, including evaporation, groundwater source type, and natural or anthropogenic (specifically agricultural and industrial) contaminants. Therefore, the study recommends focused hydro geochemistry and isotope analysis in areas with strong agricultural and industrial influence for the development of holistic groundwater management plans for protecting the groundwater aquifers' quantity and quality.

Keywords: groundwater quality, stable isotopes, salinity, groundwater management, hard-rock aquifer

Procedia PDF Downloads 34

Authors: V. P. Muhamed Shajudheen, K. Viswanathan, K. Anitha Rani, A. Uma Maheswari, S. Saravana Kumar

Abstract:

We are reporting a simple and low-cost chemical precipitation method adopted to prepare zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO) using polyvinyl pyrrolidone (PVP) as a capping agent. The Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermo Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) was applied on the dried gel sample to record the phase transformation temperature of zinc hydroxide Zn(OH)2 to zinc oxide (ZnO) to obtain the annealing temperature of 800C. The thermal, structure, morphology and optical properties have been employed by different techniques such as DSC-TGA, X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy (FTIR), Micro Raman spectroscopy, UV-Visible absorption spectroscopy (UV-Vis), Photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL) and Field Effect Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM). X-ray diffraction results confirmed the wurtzite hexagonal structure of ZnO nanoparticles. The two intensive peaks at 160 and 432 cm-1 in the Raman Spectrum are mainly attributed to the first order modes of the wurtzite ZnO nanoparticles. The energy band gap obtained from the UV-Vis absorption spectra, shows a blue shift, which is attributed to increase in carrier concentration (Burstein Moss Effect). Photoluminescence studies of the single crystalline ZnO nanoparticles, show a strong peak centered at 385 nm, corresponding to the near band edge emission in ultraviolet range. The mixed shape of grapes, sphere, hexagonal and rock like structure has been noticed in FESEM. The results showed that PVP is a suitable capping agent for the preparation of ZnO nanoparticles by simple chemical precipitation method.

Keywords: ZnO nanoparticles, simple chemical precipitation route, mixed shape morphology, UV-visible absorption, photoluminescence, Fourier transform infra-Red spectroscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Sarit Gideoni Cohen

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to examine possible risk pathway which initiated by the distal risk factors of insecure attachment to the mother, the father and peers and then developed by means of proximal risk factors: stressful life events and emotional distress. 275 participants (aged 13-26) from high-schools, youth groups and university were requited. Twenty-two percent participants reported at least one episode of self-injury. The relationship between paternal and peer attachment were partly mediated by stressful life events and depressive symptoms. Paternal and peer attachment influences during adolescence as contributing to risk pathway for self-injury were acknowledged.

Keywords: self-injury, attachment, depression, stressful life-events, adolescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Kye Gilder, Kevin Shan, Amy Halseth, Steve Smith

Abstract:

This study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. Only serious adverse events (SAE) and adverse events leading to discontinuation of study drug (AELDSD) were collected. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focused on AEs in participants on antidepressants at baseline, as these individuals were excluded from Phase 3 trials. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age of 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2, 22.8% with a history of depression, 23.1% on antidepressants, including 15.4% on an SSRI. SAEs in participants receiving antidepressants was similar between NB (10.7%) and PBO (9.9%) and also similar to overall population (9.5% NB, 8.1% PBO). SAEs in those on SSRIs were similar, 10.1% NB and PBO 9.4%. For those on SSRIs or other antidepressants, AELDSDs were similar to overall population and were primarily GI disorders. Obesity increases the risk of developing depression. For participants taking NB and antidepressants, including SSRIs, there is a similar AE profile as the overall population and data revealed no evidence of an additional health risk with combined use.

Keywords: antidepressant, Contrave, Mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Turan Çalban, Oral Laçin, Abdüsselam Kurtbaş

Abstract:

The experimental production methods Chevreul’s salt being a intermediate stage product for copper recovery were investigated by dealing with the articles written on this topic. Chevreul’s salt, Cu2SO3.CuSO3.2H2O, being a mixed valence copper sulphite compound has been obtained by using different methods and reagents. Chevreul’s salt has a intense brick-red color. It is a highly stable and expensive salt. The production of Chevreul’s salt plays a key role in hiydrometallurgy. In recent years, researchs on this compound have been intensified. Silva et al. reported that this salt is thermally stable up to 200oC. Çolak et al. precipitated the Chevreul’s salt by using ammonia and sulphur dioxide. Çalban et al. obtained at the optimum conditions by passing SO2 from leach solutions with NH3-(NH4)2SO4. Yeşiryurt and Çalban investigated the optimum precipitation conditions of Chevreul’s salt from synthetic CuSO4 solutions including Na2SO3. Çalban et al. achieved the precipitation of Chevreul’s salt at the optimum conditions by passing SO2 from synthetic CuSO4 solutions. Çalban et al. examined the precipitation conditions of Chevreul’s salt using (NH4)2SO3 from synthetic aqueous CuSO4 solutions. In light of these studies, it can be said that Chevreul’s salt can be produced practically from both a leach solutions including copper and synthetic CuSO4 solutions.

Keywords: Chevreul’s salt, ammonia, copper sulpfite, sodium sülfite, optimum conditions

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Yu-Che Cheng, Min-Lih Chang, Ke-Hao Cheng, Chuan-Cheng Wang

Abstract:

Taiwan is an island located along the southeastern coast of the Asian continent, located between Japan and the Philippines. It is surrounded by the sea on all sides. However, due to the presence of the Central Mountain Range, the rivers on the east and west coasts of Taiwan are relatively short. This geographical feature results in a phenomenon where, despite having rainfall that is 2.6 times the world average, 58.5% of the rainwater flows into the ocean. Moreover, approximately 80% of the annual rainfall occurs between May and October, leading to distinct wet and dry periods. To address these challenges, Taiwan relies on large reservoirs, storage ponds, and groundwater extraction for water resource allocation. It is necessary to construct water treatment facilities at suitable locations to provide the population with a stable and reliable water supply. In general, the construction of a new water treatment plant requires careful planning and evaluation. The process involves acquiring land and issuing contracts for construction in a sequential manner. With the increasing severity of global warming and climate change, there is a heightened risk of extreme hydrological events and severe water situations in the future. In cases of urgent water supply needs in a region, relying on traditional lengthy processes for constructing water treatment plants might not be sufficient to meet the urgent demand. Therefore, this study aims to explore the use of simplified water treatment procedures and the construction of rapid "temporary water treatment plants" to tackle the challenges posed by extreme climate conditions (such as a century-long drought) and situations where water treatment plant construction cannot keep up with the pace of water source development.

Keywords: temporary water treatment plant, emergency water supply, construction site groundwater, drought

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Mahesh Kumar Jat, Manisha Choudhary

Abstract:

Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) have been used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, object based, classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: M. T. Islam, S. H. Shakif, R. Hasan, S. H. Kobi

Abstract:

Investigation of rainfall trends is crucial considering climate change, food security, and the economy of a particular region. This research aims to study seasonal and annual precipitation trends and their abrupt changes over time in the south-central climatic zone of Bangladesh using monthly time series data of 50 years (1970-2019). A trend-free pre-whitening method has been employed to make necessary adjustments for autocorrelations in the rainfall data. Trends in rainfall and their intensity have been observed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator. Significant changes and fluctuation points in the data series have been detected using the sequential Mann-Kendall test at the 95% confidence limit. The study findings show that most of the rainfall stations in the study area have a decreasing precipitation pattern throughout all seasons. The maximum decline in the rainfall intensity has been found for the Tangail station (-8.24 mm/year) during monsoon. Madaripur and Chandpur stations have shown slight positive trends in post-monsoon rainfall. In terms of annual precipitation, a negative rainfall pattern has been identified in each station, with a maximum decrement (-) of 14.48 mm/year at Chandpur. However, all the trends are statistically non-significant within the 95% confidence interval, and their monotonic association with time ranges from very weak to weak. From the sequential Mann-Kendall test, the year of changing points for annual and seasonal downward precipitation trends occur mostly after the 90s for Dhaka and Barishal stations. For Chandpur, the fluctuation points arrive after the mid-70s in most cases.

Keywords: trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen estimator, sequential Mann-Kendall test, rainfall trend

Procedia PDF Downloads 65