Search results for: TEDPIX; Tehran Stock Exchange; S&P 500 index; USA three-month Treasury bill rate; West Texas Intermediate oil
14583 Volatility Spillover and Hedging Effectiveness between Gold and Stock Markets: Evidence for BRICS Countries
Authors: Walid Chkili
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This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between gold and stock markets using data for BRICS counties. For this purpose, we estimate three multivariate GARCH models (namely CCC, DCC and BEKK) for weekly stock and gold data. Our main objective is to examine time variations in conditional correlations between the two assets and to check the effectiveness use of gold as a hedge for equity markets. Empirical results reveal that dynamic conditional correlations switch between positive and negative values over the period under study. This correlation is negative during the major financial crises suggesting that gold can act as a safe haven during the major stress period of stock markets. We also evaluate the implications for portfolio diversification and hedging effectiveness for the pair gold/stock. Our findings suggest that adding gold in the stock portfolio enhance its risk-adjusted return.Keywords: gold, financial markets, hedge, multivariate GARCH
Procedia PDF Downloads 47014582 Stock Market Developments, Income Inequality, Wealth Inequality
Authors: Quang Dong Dang
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This paper examines the possible effects of stock market developments by channels on income and wealth inequality. We use the Bayesian Multilevel Model with the explanatory variables of the market’s channels, such as accessibility, efficiency, and market health in six selected countries: the US, UK, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. We found that generally, the improvements in the stock market alleviate income inequality. However, stock market expansions in higher-income countries are likely to trigger income inequality. We also found that while enhancing the quality of channels of the stock market has counter-effects on wealth equality distributions, open accessibilities help reduce wealth inequality distributions within the scope of the study. In addition, the inverted U-shaped hypothesis seems not to be valid in six selected countries between the period from 2006 to 2020.Keywords: Bayesian multilevel model, income inequality, inverted u-shaped hypothesis, stock market development, wealth inequality
Procedia PDF Downloads 10614581 Dependence of Ionomer Loading on the Hydrogen Generation Rate of a Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer
Authors: Yingjeng James Li, Chih Chi Hsu, Chiao-Chih Hu
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Membrane electrode assemblies MEAs for proton exchange membrane PEM water electrolyzers were prepared by employing 175um perfluorosulfonic acid PFSA membranes as the PEM, onto which iridium oxide catalyst was coated on one side as the anode and platinum catalyst was coated on the other side as the cathode. The cathode catalyst ink was prepared so that the weight ratio of the catalyst powder to ionomer was 75:25, 70:30, 65:35, 60:40, and 55:45, respectively. Whereas, the ratio of catalyst powder to ionomer of the anode catalyst ink keeps constant at 50:50. All the MEAs have a catalyst coated area of 5cm*5cm. The test cell employs a platinum plated titanium grid as anode gas diffusion media; whereas, carbon paper was employed as the cathode gas diffusion media. The measurements of the MEA gases production rate were carried out by holding the cell voltage ranging from 1.6 to 2.8 volts at room temperature. It was found that the MEA with cathode catalyst to ionomer ratio of 65:35 gives the largest hydrogen production rate which is 2.8mL/cm2*min.Keywords: electrolyzer, membrane electrode assembly, proton exchange membrane, ionomer, hydrogen
Procedia PDF Downloads 25314580 Downside Risk Analysis of the Nigerian Stock Market: A Value at Risk Approach
Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara
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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models
Procedia PDF Downloads 44214579 Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation: Does Gender Matter?
Authors: Irfan Ullah Munir, Shen Yue, Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz, Saad Hussain, Syeda Yumna Zaidi
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Financial literacy is fundamental to every decision-making process and has received attention from researchers, regulatory bodies and policy makers in the recent past. This study is an attempt to evaluate financial literacy in an emerging economy, particularly Pakistan, and its influence on people's stock market participation. Data of this study was collected through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 300 respondents. EFA is used to check the convergent and discriminant validity. Data is analyzed using Hayes (2013) approach. A set of demographic control variables that have passed the mean difference test is used. We demonstrate that participants with financial literacy tend to invest more in the stock market. We also find that association among financial literacy and participation in stock market gets moderated by gender.Keywords: Financial literacy, Stock market participation, Gender, PSX
Procedia PDF Downloads 19714578 Computation of Flood and Drought Years over the North-West Himalayan Region Using Indian Meteorological Department Rainfall Data
Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh
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The climatic condition over Indian region is highly dependent on monsoon. India receives maximum amount of rainfall during southwest monsoon. Indian economy is highly dependent on agriculture. The presence of flood and drought years influenced the total cultivation system as well as the economy of the country as Indian agricultural systems is still highly dependent on the monsoon rainfall. The present study has been planned to investigate the flood and drought years for the north-west Himalayan region from 1951 to 2014 by using area average Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. For this investigation the Normalized index (NI) has been utilized to find out whether the particular year is drought or flood. The data have been extracted for the north-west Himalayan (NWH) region states namely Uttarakhand (UK), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to find out the rainy season average rainfall for each year, climatological mean and the standard deviation. After calculation it has been plotted by the diagrams (or graphs) to show the results- some of the years associated with drought years, some are flood years and rest are neutral. The flood and drought years can also relate with the large-scale phenomena El-Nino and La-Lina.Keywords: IMD, rainfall, normalized index, flood, drought, NWH
Procedia PDF Downloads 28814577 Comparison of the Existing Damage Indices in Steel Moment-Resisting Frame Structures
Authors: Hamid Kazemi, Abbasali Sadeghi
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Assessment of seismic behavior of frame structures is just done for evaluating life and financial damages or lost. The new structural seismic behavior assessment methods have been proposed, so it is necessary to define a formulation as a damage index, which the damage amount has been quantified and qualified. In this paper, four new steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility and different height (2, 5, 8, and 12-story) with regular geometry and simple rectangular plan were supposed and designed. The three existing groups’ damage indices were studied, each group consisting of local index (Drift, Maximum Roof Displacement, Banon Failure, Kinematic, Banon Normalized Cumulative Rotation, Cumulative Plastic Rotation and Ductility), global index (Roufaiel and Meyer, Papadopoulos, Sozen, Rosenblueth, Ductility and Base Shear), and story (Banon Failure and Inter-story Rotation). The necessary parameters for these damage indices have been calculated under the effect of far-fault ground motion records by Non-linear Dynamic Time History Analysis. Finally, prioritization of damage indices is defined based on more conservative values in terms of more damageability rate. The results show that the selected damage index has an important effect on estimation of the damage state. Also, failure, drift, and Rosenblueth damage indices are more conservative indices respectively for local, story and global damage indices.Keywords: damage index, far-fault ground motion records, non-linear time history analysis, SeismoStruct software, steel moment-resisting frame
Procedia PDF Downloads 29014576 Thematic Redesign of “Nah Al Balaghe” Riverside Park: Constructing the First Cultural Tourism Center in City of Tehran
Authors: Faraz Nikpour Arani, Shahin Haghi Navand
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After Two years of operation, the “Nahj Al Balaghe” riverside park, redesigning research was ordered by second region of Tehran municipality, the goal was to construct the first cultural tourism center in city of Tehran. After Pathological and analytical studies of existing situation, that made by field work research’s and interviews, the main problems was identified as lack of thematic design and some physical problems that reduced the activity and livability ratio of the park. The main approach of this project was thematic physical redesign and redefinition of activities in order to the “Nahj Al Balaghe’s” ideas, cultural days in “shamsi calendar”, the “7 artistic dimensions” and “four classical elements”. This paper is the abstraction of a full research that was done by writers.Keywords: thematic redesign, Nah Al Balaghe riverside park, cultural tourism center, Tehran
Procedia PDF Downloads 63414575 Using Machine Learning as an Alternative for Predicting Exchange Rates
Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior
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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 3014574 Toxicities associated with EBRT and Brachytherapy for Intermediate and High Risk Prostate Cancer, Correlated with Intra-operative Dosing
Authors: Rebecca Dunne, Cormac Small, Geraldine O'Boyle, Nazir Ibrahim, Anisha
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Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. It is estimated that approximately 12% of men will develop prostate cancer during their lifetime. Patients with intermediate, high risk, and very-high risk prostate cancer often undergo a combination of radiation treatments. These treatments include external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high-dose rate brachytherapy boost, often with concomitant androgen deprivation therapy. The literature on follow-up of patients that receive brachytherapy is scarce, particularly follow-up of patients that undergo high-dose rate brachytherapy. This retrospective study aims to investigate the biochemical failure and toxicities associated with triple therapy and external beam radiotherapy given in combination with brachytherapy. Reported toxicities and prostate specific antigen (PSA) were retrospectively evaluated in eighty patients that previously underwent external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high dose-rate brachytherapy boost. The severity of toxicities were correlated with intra-operative dosing during brachytherapy on ultrasound and CT scan. The results of this study will provide further information for clinicians and patients when considering treatment options.Keywords: toxicities, combination, brachytherapy, intra-operative dosing, biochemical failure
Procedia PDF Downloads 24014573 Molecular Identification of Pneumocystis SPP Isolated from Wild Rats in Tehran, Iran
Authors: Babak Rezavand
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Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality among immunocompromised and HIV-positive patients and remained one of the most important common opportunistic infections in these individuals in the world. Pneumocystis infection has been reported in many mammals. The aim of this study was to determine the Pneumocystis infection in wild rats as natural reservoirs of this organism in Tehran city, Iran. Fifty three rats (Rattus rattus) were live trapped in different areas of Tehran city, Iran. After isolation of their lung tissues and homogenization in sterile conditions, DNA was extracted. DNAs from all of the Pneumocystis species were amplified by pAZ102-H and pAZ102-E primers, and Nested PCR was performed using pAZ102-X and pAZ102-W primers from the initial PCR product for all the species of Pneumocystis. Amplification of the genome revealed the presence of Pneumocystis in the lungs of 17 rats (32%) through a PCR product with a bandwidth of 346 bp. In the Nested PCR amplification, from the PCR product of 53 rats, 64.2% of the samples were positive with a bandwidth of 261bp. Pneumocystis SPP infestation is highly prevalent among wild rats in Tehran city, indicating the existence of infection in the natural ecosystem of these rodents. As a host, rat plays an important role in the transmission of the microorganism in the world.Keywords: pneumocystis SPP, rattus rattus, nested PCR, Tehran
Procedia PDF Downloads 20814572 A Relative Analysis of Carbon and Dust Uptake by Important Tree Species in Tehran, Iran
Authors: Sahar Elkaee Behjati
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Air pollution, particularly with dust, is one of the biggest issues Tehran is dealing with, and the city's green space which consists of trees has a critical role in absorption of it. The question this study aimed to investigate was which tree species the highest uptake capacity of the dust and carbon have suspended in the air. On this basis, 30 samples of trees from two different districts in Tehran were collected, and after washing and centrifuging, the samples were oven dried. The results of the study revealed that Ulmus minor had the highest amount of deposited dust in both districts. In addition, it was found that in Chamran district Ailanthus altissima and in Gandi district Ulmus minor has had the highest absorption of deposited carbon. Therefore, it could be argued that decision making on the selection of species for urban green spaces should take the above-mentioned parameters into account.Keywords: dust, leaves, uptake total carbon, Tehran, tree species
Procedia PDF Downloads 13814571 Executive Stock Options, Business Ethics and Financial Reporting Quality
Authors: Philemon Rakoto
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This paper tests the improvement of financial reporting quality when firms award stock options to their executives. The originality of this study is that we introduce the moderating effect of business ethics in the model. The sample is made up of 116 Canadian high-technology firms with available data for the fiscal year ending in 2012. We define the quality of financial reporting as the value relevance of accounting information as developed by Ohlson. Our results show that executive stock option award alone does not improve the quality of financial reporting. Rather, the quality improves when a firm awards stock options to its executives and investors perceive that the level of business ethics in that firm is high.Keywords: business ethics, Canada, high-tech firms, stock options, value relevance
Procedia PDF Downloads 48414570 Exchange Rate, Market Size and Human Capital Nexus Foreign Direct Investment: A Bound Testing Approach for Pakistan
Authors: Naveed Iqbal Chaudhry, Mian Saqib Mehmood, Asif Mehmood
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This study investigates the motivators of foreign direct investment (FDI) which will provide a panacea tool and ground breaking results related to it in case of Pakistan. The study considers exchange rate, market size and human capital as the motivators for attracting FDI. In this regard, time series data on annual basis has been collected for the period 1985–2010 and an Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests are utilized to determine the stationarity of the variables. A bound testing approach to co-integration was applied because the variables included in the model are at I(1) – first level stationary. The empirical findings of this study confirm the long run relationship among the variables. However, market size and human capital have strong positive and significant impact, in short and long-run, for attracting FDI but exchange rate shows negative impact in this regard. The significant negative coefficient of the ECM indicates that it converges towards equilibrium. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests plots are with in the lines of critical value, which indicates the stability of the estimated parameters. However, this model can be used by Pakistan in policy and decision making. For achieving higher economic growth and economies of scale, the country should concentrate on the ingredients of this study so that it could attract more FDI as compared to the other countries.Keywords: ARDL, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, ECM, exchange rate, FDI, human capital, market size, Pakistan
Procedia PDF Downloads 38914569 Acquisition of French (L3) Direct Object by Persian (L1) Speakers of English (L2) as EFL Learners
Authors: Ali Akbar Jabbari
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The present study assessed the acquisition of L3 French direct objects by Persian speakers who had already learned English as their L2. The ultimate goal of this paper is to extend the current knowledge about the CLI phenomenon in the realm of third language acquisition by examining the role of Persian and English as background languages and learners’ English level of proficiency in their performance on French direct object. To fulfill this, the assumptions of three L3 hypotheses, namely L1 Transfer, L2 Status Factor, and Cumulative Enhancement Model, were examined. The research sample was comprised of 40 undergraduate students in the fields of English language and literature and translation studies at Birjand University in Iran. According to the English proficiency level of learners revealed by the Quick Oxford English Placement test, the participants were grouped as upper intermediate and lower intermediate. A grammaticality judgment and a translation test were administered to gather the required data on learners' comprehension and production of the desired structure in French. It was demonstrated that the rate of positive transfer from previously learned languages was more potent than the rate of negative transfer. A Comparison of groups' performances revealed a significant difference between upper and lower intermediate groups in positing French direct objects correctly. However, the upper intermediate group did not significantly differ from the lower intermediate group in negative transfer. It can be said that by increasing the L2 proficiency of the learners, they could use their previous linguistic knowledge more efficiently. Although further examinations are needed, the current study contributed to a better characterization of cross-linguistic influence in third language acquisition. The findings help French teachers and learners to positively exploit the prior knowledge of Persian and English and apply it in in the multilingual context of French direct object's teaching and learning process.Keywords: Cross-Linguistic Influence, Persian, French & English Direct Object, Third Language Acquisition, Language Transfer
Procedia PDF Downloads 6714568 Human Development Outcomes and Macroeconomic Indicators Nexus in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu
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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR
Procedia PDF Downloads 15014567 Comparison of Student Grades in Dual-Enrollment Courses Taken Inside and Outside of Texas High Schools
Authors: Cynthia A. Gallardo, Kelly S. Hall, Kristopher Garza, Linda Challoo, Mais Nijim
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Dual-enrollment programs have become more prevalent in college and high school settings. Also known as early college programs, dual-enrollment programs help students acquire a head start in earning college credit for post-secondary studies. The number and percentage of high school students who take college courses while in high school is growing. However, little is known about how dual-enrolled students fare. The classroom environment is important to learning. This study compares dually enrolled high school students who take courses that yield college credit either within their high school or at some other location. Mann-Whitney U was the statistical test used. Mean proportions were compared for each of the five standard letter grades earned across the state of Texas. Results indicated that students earn similar passing A, B, and C grades when they take dual-enrollment courses at their high school location but are more likely to fail if they take dual-enrollment courses at non-high school locations. Implications of results are that student success rate of dual-enrollment college courses may have a significant difference between the locations and student performance.Keywords: educational leadership, dual-enrollment, student performance, college
Procedia PDF Downloads 9714566 Performance Analysis of Carbon Nanotube for VLSI Interconnects and Their Comparison with Copper Interconnects
Authors: Gagnesh Kumar, Prashant Gupta
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This paper investigates the performance of the bundle of single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) for low-power and high-speed interconnects for future VLSI applications. The power dissipation, delay and power delay product (PDP) of SWCNT bundle interconnects are examined and compared with that of the Cu interconnects at 22 nm technology node for both intermediate and global interconnects. The results show that SWCNT bundle consume less power and also faster than Cu for intermediate and global interconnects. It is concluded that the metallic SWCNT has been regarded as a viable candidate for intermediate and global interconnects in future technologies.Keywords: carbon nanotube, SWCNT, low power, delay, power delay product, global and intermediate interconnects
Procedia PDF Downloads 31814565 Development of an Index for Asset Class in Ex-Ante Portfolio Management
Authors: Miang Hong Ngerng, Noor Diyana Jasme, May Jin Theong
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Volatile market environment is inevitable. Fund managers are struggling to choose the right strategy to survive and overcome uncertainties and adverse market movement. Therefore, finding certainty in the mist of uncertainty future is one of the key performance objectives for fund managers. Current available theoretical results are not practical due to strong reliance on the investment assumption made. This paper is to identify the component that can be forecasted in Ex-ante setting which is the realistic situation facing a fund manager in the actual execution of asset allocation in portfolio management. Partial lease square method was used to generate an index with 10 years accounting data from 191 companies listed in KLSE. The result shows that the index reflects the inner nature of the business and up to 30% of the stock return can be explained by the index.Keywords: active portfolio management, asset allocation ex-ante investment, asset class, partial lease square
Procedia PDF Downloads 26514564 Recent Developments in the Application of Deep Learning to Stock Market Prediction
Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta
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Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume
Procedia PDF Downloads 8814563 Charter versus District Schools and Student Achievement: Implications for School Leaders
Authors: Kara Rosenblatt, Kevin Badgett, James Eldridge
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There is a preponderance of information regarding the overall effectiveness of charter schools and their ability to increase academic achievement compared to traditional district schools. Most research on the topic is focused on comparing long and short-term outcomes, academic achievement in mathematics and reading, and locale (i.e., urban, v. Rural). While the lingering unanswered questions regarding effectiveness continue to loom for school leaders, data on charter schools suggests that enrollment increases by 10% annually and that charter schools educate more than 2 million U.S. students across 40 states each year. Given the increasing share of U.S. students educated in charter schools, it is important to better understand possible differences in student achievement defined in multiple ways for students in charter schools and for those in Independent School District (ISD) settings in the state of Texas. Data were retrieved from the Texas Education Agency’s (TEA) repository that includes data organized annually and available on the TEA website. Specific data points and definitions of achievement were based on characterizations of achievement found in the relevant literature. Specific data points include but were not limited to graduation rate, student performance on standardized testing, and teacher-related factors such as experience and longevity in the district. Initial findings indicate some similarities with the current literature on long-term student achievement in English/Language Arts; however, the findings differ substantially from other recent research related to long-term student achievement in social studies. There are a number of interesting findings also related to differences between achievement for students in charters and ISDs and within different types of charter schools in Texas. In addition to findings, implications for leadership in different settings will be explored.Keywords: charter schools, ISDs, student achievement, implications for PK-12 school leadership
Procedia PDF Downloads 12414562 Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Model Based on Support Vector Regression for Stock Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam
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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR
Procedia PDF Downloads 24414561 Quantifying Spatiotemporal Patterns of Past and Future Urbanization Trends in El Paso, Texas and Their Impact on Electricity Consumption
Authors: Joanne Moyer
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El Paso, Texas is a southwest border city that has experienced continuous growth within the last 15-years. Understanding the urban growth trends and patterns using data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and landscape metrics, provides a quantitative description of growth. Past urban growth provided a basis to predict 2031 future land-use for El Paso using the CA-Markov model. As a consequence of growth, an increase in demand of resources follows. Using panel data analysis, an understanding of the relation between landscape metrics and electricity consumption is further analyzed. The studies’ findings indicate that past growth focused within three districts within the City of El Paso. The landscape metrics suggest as the city has grown, fragmentation has decreased. Alternatively, the landscape metrics for the projected 2031 land-use indicates possible fragmentation within one of these districts. Panel data suggests electricity consumption and mean patch area landscape metric are positively correlated. The study provides local decision makers to make informed decisions for policies and urban planning to ensure a future sustainable community.Keywords: landscape metrics, CA-Markov, El Paso, Texas, panel data
Procedia PDF Downloads 14214560 Subway Stray Current Effects on Gas Pipelines in the City of Tehran
Authors: Mohammad Derakhshani, Saeed Reza Allahkarama, Michael Isakhani-Zakaria, Masoud Samadian, Hojjat Sharifi Rasaey
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In order to investigate the effects of stray current from DC traction systems (subway) on cathodically protected gas pipelines, the subway and the gas network maps in the city of Tehran were superimposed and a comprehensive map was prepared. 213 intersections and about 100150 meters of parallel sections of gas pipelines were found with respect to the railway right of way which was specified for field measurements. The potential measurements data were logged for one hour in each test point. 24-hour potential monitoring was carried out in selected test points as well. Results showed that dynamic stray current from subway on pipeline potential appears as fluctuations in its static potential that is visible in the diagrams during night periods. These fluctuations can cause the pipeline potential to exit the safe zone and lead to corrosion or overprotection. In this study, a maximum potential shift of 100 mv in the pipe-to-soil potential was considered as a criterion for dynamic stray current effective presence. Results showed that a potential fluctuation range between 100 mV to 3 V exists in measured points on pipelines which exceeds the proposed criterion and needs to be investigated. Corrosion rates influenced by stray currents were calculated using coupons. Results showed that coupon linked to the pipeline in one of the locations at region 1 of the city of Tehran has a corrosion rate of 4.2 mpy (with cathodic protection and under influence of stray currents) which is about 1.5 times more than free corrosion rate of 2.6 mpy.Keywords: stray current, DC traction, subway, buried Pipelines, cathodic protection list
Procedia PDF Downloads 82114559 Pollution Assessment and Potential Ecological Risk of Some Traces Metals in the Surface Sediments of the Gulf of Tunis, North Tunisia
Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added
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To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf
Procedia PDF Downloads 8314558 The Conditionality of Financial Risk: A Comparative Analysis of High-Tech and Utility Companies Listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE)
Authors: Joseph Paul Chunga
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The investment universe is awash with a myriad of financial choices that investors have to opt for, which principally culminates into a duality between aggressive or conservative approaches. Howbeit, it is pertinent to emphasize that the investment vehicles with an aggressive approach tend to take on more risk than the latter group in an effort to generate higher future returns for their respective investors. This study examines the conditionality effect that such partiality in financing has on the High-Tech and Public Utility companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE). Specifically, it examines the significance of the relationship between capitalization ratios of Total Debt Ratio (TDR), Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) and profitability ratios of Earnings per Share (EPS) and Returns on Equity (ROE) on the Financial Risk of the two industries. We employ a modified version of the Panel Regression Model used by Rahman (2017) to estimate the relationship. The study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between the capitalization ratios on the financial risk of Public Utility companies more than High-Tech companies and a substantial negative relationship between the profitability ratios and the financial risk of the former than the latter companies. This then spells an important insight for prospective investors with regards to the volatility of earnings of such companies.Keywords: financial leverage, debt financing, conservative firms, aggressive firms
Procedia PDF Downloads 18514557 Conservation Status of a Lowland Tropical Forest in South-West, Nigeria
Authors: Lucky Dartsa Wakawa, Friday Nwabueze Ogana, Temitope Elizabeth Adeniyi
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Timely and reliable information on the status of a forest is essential for assessing the extent of regeneration and degradation. However, when such information is lacking effective forest management practices becomes impossible. Therefore, this study assessed the tree species composition, richness, diversity, structure of Oluwa forest reserve with the view of ascertaining it conservation status. A systematic line transect was used in the laying of eight (8) temporary sample plots (TSPs) of size 50m x 50m. Trees with Dbh ≥ 10cm in the selected plots were enumerated, identified and measured. The results indicate that 535 individual trees were enumerated cutting across 26 families and 58 species. The family Sterculiaceae recorded the highest number of species (10) and occurrence (112) representing 17.2% and 20.93% respectively. Celtis zenkeri is the species with the highest number of occurrence of tree per hectare and importance value index (IVI) of 59 and 53.81 respectively. The reserve has the Margalef's index of species richness, Shannon-Weiner diversity Index (H') and Pielou's Species Evenness Index (EH) of 9.07, 3.43 and 0.84 respectively. The forest has a mean Dbh (cm), mean height (m), total basal area/ha (m2) and total volume/ha (m3) of 24.7, 16.9, 36.63 and 602.09 respectively. The important tropical tree species identified includes Diospyros crassiflora Milicia excels, Mansonia altisima, Triplochiton scleroxylon. Despite the level of exploitation in the forest, the forest seems to be resilience. Given the right attention, it could regenerate and replenish to save some of the original species composition of the reserve.Keywords: forest conservation, forest structure, Lowland tropical forest, South-west Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 34114556 Applying Hybrid Graph Drawing and Clustering Methods on Stock Investment Analysis
Authors: Mouataz Zreika, Maria Estela Varua
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Stock investment decisions are often made based on current events of the global economy and the analysis of historical data. Conversely, visual representation could assist investors’ gain deeper understanding and better insight on stock market trends more efficiently. The trend analysis is based on long-term data collection. The study adopts a hybrid method that combines the Clustering algorithm and Force-directed algorithm to overcome the scalability problem when visualizing large data. This method exemplifies the potential relationships between each stock, as well as determining the degree of strength and connectivity, which will provide investors another understanding of the stock relationship for reference. Information derived from visualization will also help them make an informed decision. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method is able to produced visualized data aesthetically by providing clearer views for connectivity and edge weights.Keywords: clustering, force-directed, graph drawing, stock investment analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 30014555 Structural Breaks, Asymmetric Effects and Long Memory in the Volatility of Turkey Stock Market
Authors: Serpil Türkyılmaz, Mesut Balıbey
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In this study, long memory properties in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are being examined through the FIGARCH, FIEGARCH and FIAPARCH models under different distribution assumptions as normal and skewed student-t distributions. Furthermore, structural changes in volatility of Turkey Stock Market are investigated. The results display long memory property and the presence of asymmetric effects of shocks in volatility of Turkey Stock Market.Keywords: FIAPARCH model, FIEGARCH model, FIGARCH model, structural break
Procedia PDF Downloads 29014554 Pavement Roughness Prediction Systems: A Bump Integrator Approach
Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar
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Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipment like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.Keywords: bump integrator, pavement distresses, roughness index, SPSS
Procedia PDF Downloads 246