Search results for: nonlinear estimation
583 Epilepsy Seizure Prediction by Effective Connectivity Estimation Using Granger Causality and Directed Transfer Function Analysis of Multi-Channel Electroencephalogram
Authors: Mona Hejazi, Ali Motie Nasrabadi
Abstract:
Epilepsy is a persistent neurological disorder that affects more than 50 million people worldwide. Hence, there is a necessity to introduce an efficient prediction model for making a correct diagnosis of the epileptic seizure and accurate prediction of its type. In this study we consider how the Effective Connectivity (EC) patterns obtained from intracranial Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings reveal information about the dynamics of the epileptic brain and can be used to predict imminent seizures, as this will enable the patients (and caregivers) to take appropriate precautions. We use this definition because we believe that effective connectivity near seizures begin to change, so we can predict seizures according to this feature. Results are reported on the standard Freiburg EEG dataset which contains data from 21 patients suffering from medically intractable focal epilepsy. Six channels of EEG from each patients are considered and effective connectivity using Directed Transfer Function (DTF) and Granger Causality (GC) methods is estimated. We concentrate on effective connectivity standard deviation over time and feature changes in five brain frequency sub-bands (Alpha, Beta, Theta, Delta, and Gamma) are compared. The performance obtained for the proposed scheme in predicting seizures is: average prediction time is 50 minutes before seizure onset, the maximum sensitivity is approximate ~80% and the false positive rate is 0.33 FP/h. DTF method is more acceptable to predict epileptic seizures and generally we can observe that the greater results are in gamma and beta sub-bands. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices.Keywords: effective connectivity, Granger causality, directed transfer function, epilepsy seizure prediction, EEG
Procedia PDF Downloads 467582 Quantification of Soft Tissue Artefacts Using Motion Capture Data and Ultrasound Depth Measurements
Authors: Azadeh Rouhandeh, Chris Joslin, Zhen Qu, Yuu Ono
Abstract:
The centre of rotation of the hip joint is needed for an accurate simulation of the joint performance in many applications such as pre-operative planning simulation, human gait analysis, and hip joint disorders. In human movement analysis, the hip joint center can be estimated using a functional method based on the relative motion of the femur to pelvis measured using reflective markers attached to the skin surface. The principal source of errors in estimation of hip joint centre location using functional methods is soft tissue artefacts due to the relative motion between the markers and bone. One of the main objectives in human movement analysis is the assessment of soft tissue artefact as the accuracy of functional methods depends upon it. Various studies have described the movement of soft tissue artefact invasively, such as intra-cortical pins, external fixators, percutaneous skeletal trackers, and Roentgen photogrammetry. The goal of this study is to present a non-invasive method to assess the displacements of the markers relative to the underlying bone using optical motion capture data and tissue thickness from ultrasound measurements during flexion, extension, and abduction (all with knee extended) of the hip joint. Results show that the artefact skin marker displacements are non-linear and larger in areas closer to the hip joint. Also marker displacements are dependent on the movement type and relatively larger in abduction movement. The quantification of soft tissue artefacts can be used as a basis for a correction procedure for hip joint kinematics.Keywords: hip joint center, motion capture, soft tissue artefact, ultrasound depth measurement
Procedia PDF Downloads 278581 Salting Effect in Partially Miscible Systems of Water/Acétic Acid/1-Butanol at 298.15k: Experimental Study and Estimation of New Solvent-Solvent and Salt-Solvent Binary Interaction Parameters for NRTL Model
Authors: N. Bourayou, A. -H. Meniai, A. Gouaoura
Abstract:
The presence of salt can either raise or lower the distribution coefficient of a solute acetic acid in liquid- liquid equilibria. The coefficient of solute is defined as the ratio of the composition of solute in solvent rich phase to the composition of solute in diluents (water) rich phase. The phenomena are known as salting–out or salting-in, respectively. The effect of monovalent salt, sodium chloride and the bivalent salt, sodium sulfate on the distribution of acetic acid between 1-butanol and water at 298.15K were experimentally shown to be effective in modifying the liquid-liquid equilibrium of water/acetic acid/1-butanol system in favour of the solvent extraction of acetic acid from an aqueous solution with 1-butanol, particularly at high salt concentrations of both salts. All the two salts studied are found to have to salt out effect for acetic acid in varying degrees. The experimentally measured data were well correlated by Eisen-Joffe equation. NRTL model for solvent mixtures containing salts was able to provide good correlation of the present liquid-liquid equilibrium data. Using the regressed salt concentration coefficients for the salt-solvent interaction parameters and the solvent-solvent interaction parameters obtained from the same system without salt. The calculated phase equilibrium was in a quite good agreement with the experimental data, showing the ability of NRTL model to correlate salt effect on the liquid-liquid equilibrium.Keywords: activity coefficient, Eisen-Joffe, NRTL model, sodium chloride
Procedia PDF Downloads 281580 A Hierarchical Bayesian Calibration of Data-Driven Models for Composite Laminate Consolidation
Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell
Abstract:
Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models
Procedia PDF Downloads 143579 Demographic Diversity in the Boardroom and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence in the French Context
Authors: Elhem Zaatir, Taher Hamza
Abstract:
Several governments seek to implement gender parity on boards, but the results of doing so are not clear and could harm corporations and economies. The present paper aims to investigate the relationship between women’s presence on boards and firms’ performance in the context of the French listed firms during the quota period. A dynamic panel generalized method of moment estimation is applied to control the endogenous effect of board structure and reverse the causality impact of the financial performance. Our results show that the impact of gender diversity manifests in conflicting directions, positively affecting accounting performance and negatively influencing market performance. These results suggest that female directors create economic value, but the market discounts their impact. Apparently, they are subject to a biased evaluation by the market, which undervalues their presence on boards. Added to that, our results confirm a twofold nature of female representation in the French market. The effect of female directorship on firm performance varies with the affiliation of the directors. In other words, the positive impact of gender diversity on return on assets primarily originates from the positive effect of non-family-affiliated women directors on market performance rather than on the effect of family-affiliated women directors on ROA. Finally, according to our results, women’s demographic attributes namely the level of education and multiple directorships strongly and positively impact firm performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Obviously, women directors seem to be appointed to the business case rather than as token directors.Keywords: corporate governance, board of directors, women, gender diversity, demographic attributes, firm performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 126578 Estimation of Particle Size Distribution Using Magnetization Data
Authors: Navneet Kaur, S. D. Tiwari
Abstract:
Magnetic nanoparticles possess fascinating properties which make their behavior unique in comparison to corresponding bulk materials. Superparamagnetism is one such interesting phenomenon exhibited only by small particles of magnetic materials. In this state, the thermal energy of particles become more than their magnetic anisotropy energy, and so particle magnetic moment vectors fluctuate between states of minimum energy. This situation is similar to paramagnetism of non-interacting ions and termed as superparamagnetism. The magnetization of such systems has been described by Langevin function. But, the estimated fit parameters, in this case, are found to be unphysical. It is due to non-consideration of particle size distribution. In this work, analysis of magnetization data on NiO nanoparticles is presented considering the effect of particle size distribution. Nanoparticles of NiO of two different sizes are prepared by heating freshly synthesized Ni(OH)₂ at different temperatures. Room temperature X-ray diffraction patterns confirm the formation of single phase of NiO. The diffraction lines are seen to be quite broad indicating the nanocrystalline nature of the samples. The average crystallite size are estimated to be about 6 and 8 nm. The samples are also characterized by transmission electron microscope. Magnetization of both sample is measured as function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Zero field cooled and field cooled magnetization are measured as a function of temperature to determine the bifurcation temperature. The magnetization is also measured at several temperatures in superparamagnetic region. The data are fitted to an appropriate expression considering a distribution in particle size following a least square fit procedure. The computer codes are written in PYTHON. The presented analysis is found to be very useful for estimating the particle size distribution present in the samples. The estimated distributions are compared with those determined from transmission electron micrographs.Keywords: anisotropy, magnetization, nanoparticles, superparamagnetism
Procedia PDF Downloads 141577 Estimation Atmospheric parameters for Weather Study and Forecast over Equatorial Regions Using Ground-Based Global Position System
Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Kassa, Addisu Hunegnaw, Martin Vermeer
Abstract:
There are various models to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameter values, such as in-suite and reanalysis datasets from numerical models. Accurate estimated values of the atmospheric parameters are useful for weather forecasting and, climate modeling and monitoring of climate change. Recently, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements have been applied for atmospheric sounding due to its robust data quality and wide horizontal and vertical coverage. The Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions that includes tropospheric parameters constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The objective of this paper is, to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameters such as Wet Zenith Delay (WZD), Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) and Total Zenith Delay (TZD) using six selected GPS stations in the equatorial regions, more precisely, the Ethiopian GPS stations from 2012 to 2015 observational data. Based on historic estimated GPS-derived values of PWV, we forecasted the PWV from 2015 to 2030. During data processing and analysis, we applied GAMIT-GLOBK software packages to estimate the atmospheric parameters. In the result, we found that the annual averaged minimum values of PWV are 9.72 mm for IISC and maximum 50.37 mm for BJCO stations. The annual averaged minimum values of WZD are 6 cm for IISC and maximum 31 cm for BDMT stations. In the long series of observations (from 2012 to 2015), we also found that there is a trend and cyclic patterns of WZD, PWV and TZD for all stations.Keywords: atmosphere, GNSS, neutral atmosphere, precipitable water vapour
Procedia PDF Downloads 58576 Prediction of Remaining Life of Industrial Cutting Tools with Deep Learning-Assisted Image Processing Techniques
Authors: Gizem Eser Erdek
Abstract:
This study is research on predicting the remaining life of industrial cutting tools used in the industrial production process with deep learning methods. When the life of cutting tools decreases, they cause destruction to the raw material they are processing. This study it is aimed to predict the remaining life of the cutting tool based on the damage caused by the cutting tools to the raw material. For this, hole photos were collected from the hole-drilling machine for 8 months. Photos were labeled in 5 classes according to hole quality. In this way, the problem was transformed into a classification problem. Using the prepared data set, a model was created with convolutional neural networks, which is a deep learning method. In addition, VGGNet and ResNet architectures, which have been successful in the literature, have been tested on the data set. A hybrid model using convolutional neural networks and support vector machines is also used for comparison. When all models are compared, it has been determined that the model in which convolutional neural networks are used gives successful results of a %74 accuracy rate. In the preliminary studies, the data set was arranged to include only the best and worst classes, and the study gave ~93% accuracy when the binary classification model was applied. The results of this study showed that the remaining life of the cutting tools could be predicted by deep learning methods based on the damage to the raw material. Experiments have proven that deep learning methods can be used as an alternative for cutting tool life estimation.Keywords: classification, convolutional neural network, deep learning, remaining life of industrial cutting tools, ResNet, support vector machine, VggNet
Procedia PDF Downloads 75575 Enhancing Embedded System Efficiency with Digital Signal Processing Cores
Authors: Anil H. Dhanawade, Akshay S., Harshal M. Lakesar
Abstract:
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the performance advantages offered by DSP (Digital Signal Processing) cores compared to traditional MCU (Microcontroller Unit) cores in the execution of various functions critical to real-time applications. The focus is on the integration of DSP functionalities, specifically in the context of motor control applications such as Field-Oriented Control (FOC), trigonometric calculations, back-EMF estimation, digital filtering, and high-resolution PWM generation. Through comparative analysis, it is demonstrated that DSP cores significantly enhance processing efficiency, achieving faster execution times for complex mathematical operations essential for precise torque and speed control. The study highlights the capabilities of DSP cores, including single-cycle Multiply-Accumulate (MAC) operations and optimized hardware for trigonometric functions, which collectively reduce latency and improve real-time performance. In contrast, MCU cores, while capable of performing similar tasks, typically exhibit longer execution times due to reliance on software-based solutions and lack of dedicated hardware acceleration. The findings underscore the critical role of DSP cores in applications requiring high-speed processing and low-latency response, making them indispensable in the automotive, industrial, and robotics sectors. This work serves as a reference for future developments in embedded systems, emphasizing the importance of architecture choice in achieving optimal performance in demanding computational tasks.Keywords: CPU core, DSP, assembly code, motor control
Procedia PDF Downloads 14574 Two Dimensional Numerical Analysis for the Seismic Response of the Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Integral Abutments
Authors: Dawei Shen, Ming Xu, Pengfei Liu
Abstract:
The joints between simply supported bridge decks and abutments need to be regularly repaired, which would greatly increase the cost during the service life of the bridge. Simply supported girder bridges suffered the most severe damage during earthquakes. Another type of bridge, the integral bridge, of which the superstructure and abutment are rigidly connected, was also used in some European countries. Because no bearings or joints exit in the integral bridge, this type of bridge could significantly reduce maintenance requirements and costs. However, conventional integral bridge usually result in high earth pressure on the abutment and surface settlement in the backfill. To solve these problems, a new type of integral bridge, geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) integral bridge, was come up in recent years. This newly invented bridge has not been used in engineering practices. There was a lack of research on the seismic behavior of the conventional and new type of integral abutments. In addition, no common design code could be found for the calculation of seismic pressure of soil behind the abutment. This paper developed a dynamic constitutive model, which can consider the soil behaviors under cyclic loading. Numerical analyses of the seismic response of a full height integral bridge and GRS integral bridge were carried out using the two-dimensional numerical code, FLAC. A parametric study was also performed to investigate the soil-structure interaction. The results are presented below. The seismic responses of GRS integral bridge together with conventional simply supported bridge, GRS conventional bridge and conventional integral bridge were investigated. The results show that the GRS integral bridge holds the highest seismic stability, followed by conventional integral bridge, GRS simply supported bridge and conventional simply supported bridge. Compared with the integral bridge with 1 m thick abutments, the GRS integral bridge with 0.4 m thick abutments is subjected to a smaller bending moment, and the natural frequency and horizontal displacement remains almost the same. Geosynthetic-reinforcement will be more effective when the abutment becomes thinner or the abutment is higher.Keywords: geosynthetic-reinforced soil integral bridge, nonlinear hysteretic model, numerical analysis, seismic response
Procedia PDF Downloads 461573 A Bayesian Population Model to Estimate Reference Points of Bombay-Duck (Harpadon nehereus) in Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh Using CMSY and BSM
Authors: Ahmad Rabby
Abstract:
The demographic trend analyses of Bombay-duck from time series catch data using CMSY and BSM for the first time in Bangladesh. During 2000-2018, CMSY indicates average lowest production in 2000 and highest in 2018. This has been used in the estimation of prior biomass by the default rules. Possible 31030 viable trajectories for 3422 r-k pairs were found by the CMSY analysis and the final estimates for intrinsic rate of population increase (r) was 1.19 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.957-1.48 year-1. The carrying capacity(k) of Bombay-duck was 283×103 tons with 95% CL=173×103 - 464×103 tons and MSY was 84.3×103tons year-1, 95% CL=49.1×103-145×103 tons year-1. Results from Bayesian state-space implementation of the Schaefer production model (BSM) using catch & CPUE data, found catchabilitiy coefficient(q) was 1.63 ×10-6 from lcl=1.27×10-6 to ucl=2.10×10-6 and r= 1.06 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.727 - 1.55 year-1, k was 226×103 tons with 95% CL=170×103-301×103 tons and MSY was 60×103 tons year-1 with 95% CL=49.9 ×103- 72.2 ×103 tons year-1. Results for Bombay-duck fishery management based on BSM assessment from time series catch data illustrated that, Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364 - 0.775 (if B > 1/2 Bmsy then Fmsy =0.5r); Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364-0.775 (r and Fmsy are linearly reduced if B < 1/2Bmsy). Biomass in 2018 was 110×103 tons with 2.5th to 97.5th percentile=82.3-155×103 tons. Relative biomass (B/Bmsy) in last year was 0.972 from 2.5th percentile to 97.5th percentile=0.728 -1.37. Fishing mortality in last year was 0.738 with 2.5th-97.5th percentile=0.525-1.37. Exploitation F/Fmsy was 1.39, from 2.5th to 97.5th percentile it was 0.988 -1.86. The biological reference points of B/BMSY was smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY was higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Bombay-duck fishery.Keywords: biological reference points, catchability coefficient, carrying capacity, intrinsic rate of population increase
Procedia PDF Downloads 124572 Pilot Study of Determining the Impact of Surface Subsidence at The Intersection of Cave Mining with the Surface Using an Electrical Impedance Tomography
Authors: Ariungerel Jargal
Abstract:
: Cave mining is a bulk underground mining method, which allows large low-grade deposits to be mined underground. This method involves undermining the orebody to make it collapse under its own weight into a series of chambers from which the ore extracted. It is a useful technique to extend the life of large deposits previously mined by open pits, and it is a method increasingly proposed for new mines around the world. We plan to conduct a feasibility study using Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) technology to show how much subsidence there is at the intersection with the cave mining surface. EIT is an imaging technique which uses electrical measurements at electrodes attached on the body surface to yield a cross-sectional image of conductivity changes within the object. EIT has been developed in several different applications areas as a simpler, cheaper alternative to many other imaging methods. A low frequency current is injected between pairs of electrodes while voltage measurements are collected at all other electrode pairs. In the difference EIT, images are reconstructed of the change in conductivity distribution (σ) between the acquisition of the two sets of measurements. Image reconstruction in EIT requires the solution of an ill-conditioned nonlinear inverse problem on noisy data, typically requiring make simpler assumptions or regularization. It is noted that the ratio of current to voltage represents a complex value according to Ohm’s law, and that it is theoretically possible to re-express EIT. The results of the experiment were presented on the simulation, and it was concluded that it is possible to conduct further real experiments. Drill a certain number of holes in the top wall of the cave to attach the electrodes, flow a current through them, and measure and acquire the potential through these electrodes. Appropriate values should be selected depending on the distance between the holes, the frequency and duration of the measurements, the surface characteristics and the size of the study area using an EIT device.Keywords: impedance tomography, cave mining, soil, EIT device
Procedia PDF Downloads 126571 The Relationship between Renewable Energy, Real Income, Tourism and Air Pollution
Authors: Eyup Dogan
Abstract:
One criticism of the energy-growth-environment literature, to the best of our knowledge, is that only a few studies analyze the influence of tourism on CO₂ emissions even though tourism sector is closely related to the environment. The other criticism is the selection of methodology. Panel estimation techniques that fail to consider both heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence across countries can cause forecasting errors. To fulfill the mentioned gaps in the literature, this study analyzes the impacts of real GDP, renewable energy and tourism on the levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for the top 10 most-visited countries around the world. This study focuses on the top 10 touristic (most-visited) countries because they receive about the half of the worldwide tourist arrivals in late years and are among the top ones in 'Renewables Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI)'. By looking at Pesaran’s CD test and average growth rates of variables for each country, we detect the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. Hence, this study uses second generation econometric techniques (cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF), and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root test, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, and the DOLS and the FMOLS estimators) which are robust to the mentioned issues. Therefore, the reported results become accurate and reliable. It is found that renewable energy mitigates the pollution whereas real GDP and tourism contribute to carbon emissions. Thus, regulatory policies are necessary to increase the awareness of sustainable tourism. In addition, the use of renewable energy and the adoption of clean technologies in tourism sector as well as in producing goods and services play significant roles in reducing the levels of emissions.Keywords: air pollution, tourism, renewable energy, income, panel data
Procedia PDF Downloads 183570 Design and Characterization of Ecological Materials Based on Demolition and Concrete Waste, Casablanca (Morocco)
Authors: Mourad Morsli, Mohamed Tahiri, Azzedine Samdi
Abstract:
The Cities are the urbanized territories most favorable to the consumption of resources (materials, energy). In Morocco, the economic capital Casablanca is one of them, with its 4M inhabitants and its 60% share in the economic and industrial activity of the kingdom. In the absence of legal status in force, urban development has favored the generation of millions of tons of demolition and construction waste scattered in open spaces causing a significant nuisance to the environment and citizens. Hence the main objective of our work is to valorize concrete waste. The representative wastes are mainly concrete, concrete, and fired clay bricks, ceramic tiles, marble panels, gypsum, and scrap metal. The work carried out includes: geolocation with a combination of artificial intelligence, GIS, and Google Earth, which allowed the estimation of the quantity of these wastes per site; then the sorting, crushing, grinding, and physicochemical characterization of the collected samples allowed the definition of the exploitation ways for each extracted fraction for integrated management of the said wastes. In the present work, we proceeded to the exploitation of the fractions obtained after sieving the representative samples to incorporate them in the manufacture of new ecological materials for construction. These formulations prepared studies have been tested and characterized: physical criteria (specific surface, resistance to flexion and compression) and appearance (cracks, deformation). We will present in detail the main results of our research work and also describe the specific properties of each material developed.Keywords: demolition and construction waste, GIS combination software, inert waste recovery, ecological materials, Casablanca, Morocco
Procedia PDF Downloads 131569 Modelling, Assessment, and Optimisation of Rules for Selected Umgeni Water Distribution Systems
Authors: Khanyisile Mnguni, Muthukrishnavellaisamy Kumarasamy, Jeff C. Smithers
Abstract:
Umgeni Water is a water board that supplies most parts of KwaZulu Natal with bulk portable water. Currently, Umgeni Water is running its distribution system based on required reservoir levels and demands and does not consider the energy cost at different times of the day, number of pump switches, and background leakages. Including these constraints can reduce operational cost, energy usage, leakages, and increase performance. Optimising pump schedules can reduce energy usage and costs while adhering to hydraulic and operational constraints. Umgeni Water has installed an online hydraulic software, WaterNet Advisor, that allows running different operational scenarios prior to implementation in order to optimise the distribution system. This study will investigate operation scenarios using optimisation techniques and WaterNet Advisor for a local water distribution system. Based on studies reported in the literature, introducing pump scheduling optimisation can reduce energy usage by approximately 30% without any change in infrastructure. Including tariff structures in an optimisation problem can reduce pumping costs by 15%, while including leakages decreases cost by 10%, and pressure drop in the system can be up to 12 m. Genetical optimisation algorithms are widely used due to their ability to solve nonlinear, non-convex, and mixed-integer problems. Other methods such as branch and bound linear programming have also been successfully used. A suitable optimisation method will be chosen based on its efficiency. The objective of the study is to reduce energy usage, operational cost, and leakages, and the feasibility of optimal solution will be checked using the Waternet Advisor. This study will provide an overview of the optimisation of hydraulic networks and progress made to date in multi-objective optimisation for a selected sub-system operated by Umgeni Water.Keywords: energy usage, pump scheduling, WaterNet Advisor, leakages
Procedia PDF Downloads 92568 Bias-Corrected Estimation Methods for Receiver Operating Characteristic Surface
Authors: Khanh To Duc, Monica Chiogna, Gianfranco Adimari
Abstract:
With three diagnostic categories, assessment of the performance of diagnostic tests is achieved by the analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface, which generalizes the ROC curve for binary diagnostic outcomes. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is a summary index usually employed for measuring the overall diagnostic accuracy. When the true disease status can be exactly assessed by means of a gold standard (GS) test, unbiased nonparametric estimators of the ROC surface and VUS are easily obtained. In practice, unfortunately, disease status verification via the GS test could be unavailable for all study subjects, due to the expensiveness or invasiveness of the GS test. Thus, often only a subset of patients undergoes disease verification. Statistical evaluations of diagnostic accuracy based only on data from subjects with verified disease status are typically biased. This bias is known as verification bias. Here, we consider the problem of correcting for verification bias when continuous diagnostic tests for three-class disease status are considered. We assume that selection for disease verification does not depend on disease status, given test results and other observed covariates, i.e., we assume that the true disease status, when missing, is missing at random. Under this assumption, we discuss several solutions for ROC surface analysis based on imputation and re-weighting methods. In particular, verification bias-corrected estimators of the ROC surface and of VUS are proposed, namely, full imputation, mean score imputation, inverse probability weighting and semiparametric efficient estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, and their finite sample behavior is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. Two illustrations using real datasets are also given.Keywords: imputation, missing at random, inverse probability weighting, ROC surface analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 414567 Centrifuge Modelling Approach on Sysmic Loading Analysis of Clay: A Geotechnical Study
Authors: Anthony Quansah, Tresor Ntaryamira, Shula Mushota
Abstract:
Models for geotechnical centrifuge testing are usually made from re-formed soil, allowing for comparisons with naturally occurring soil deposits. However, there is a fundamental omission in this process because the natural soil is deposited in layers creating a unique structure. Nonlinear dynamics of clay material deposit is an essential part of changing the attributes of ground movements when subjected to solid seismic loading, particularly when diverse intensification conduct of speeding up and relocation are considered. The paper portrays a review of axis shaking table tests and numerical recreations to explore the offshore clay deposits subjected to seismic loadings. These perceptions are accurately reenacted by DEEPSOIL with appropriate soil models and parameters reviewed from noteworthy centrifuge modeling researches. At that point, precise 1-D site reaction investigations are performed on both time and recurrence spaces. The outcomes uncover that for profound delicate clay is subjected to expansive quakes, noteworthy increasing speed lessening may happen close to the highest point of store because of soil nonlinearity and even neighborhood shear disappointment; nonetheless, huge enhancement of removal at low frequencies are normal in any case the forces of base movements, which proposes that for dislodging touchy seaward establishments and structures, such intensified low-recurrence relocation reaction will assume an essential part in seismic outline. This research shows centrifuge as a tool for creating a layered sample important for modelling true soil behaviour (such as permeability) which is not identical in all directions. Currently, there are limited methods for creating layered soil samples.Keywords: seismic analysis, layered modeling, terotechnology, finite element modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 154566 A Three-Dimensional TLM Simulation Method for Thermal Effect in PV-Solar Cells
Authors: R. Hocine, A. Boudjemai, A. Amrani, K. Belkacemi
Abstract:
Temperature rising is a negative factor in almost all systems. It could cause by self heating or ambient temperature. In solar photovoltaic cells this temperature rising affects on the behavior of cells. The ability of a PV module to withstand the effects of periodic hot-spot heating that occurs when cells are operated under reverse biased conditions is closely related to the properties of the cell semi-conductor material. In addition, the thermal effect also influences the estimation of the maximum power point (MPP) and electrical parameters for the PV modules, such as maximum output power, maximum conversion efficiency, internal efficiency, reliability, and lifetime. The cells junction temperature is a critical parameter that significantly affects the electrical characteristics of PV modules. For practical applications of PV modules, it is very important to accurately estimate the junction temperature of PV modules and analyze the thermal characteristics of the PV modules. Once the temperature variation is taken into account, we can then acquire a more accurate MPP for the PV modules, and the maximum utilization efficiency of the PV modules can also be further achieved. In this paper, the three-Dimensional Transmission Line Matrix (3D-TLM) method was used to map the surface temperature distribution of solar cells while in the reverse bias mode. It was observed that some cells exhibited an inhomogeneity of the surface temperature resulting in localized heating (hot-spot). This hot-spot heating causes irreversible destruction of the solar cell structure. Hot spots can have a deleterious impact on the total solar modules if individual solar cells are heated. So, the results show clearly that the solar cells are capable of self-generating considerable amounts of heat that should be dissipated very quickly to increase PV module's lifetime.Keywords: thermal effect, conduction, heat dissipation, thermal conductivity, solar cell, PV module, nodes, 3D-TLM
Procedia PDF Downloads 385565 Effects of Watershed Erosion on Stream Channel Formation
Authors: Tiao Chang, Ivan Caballero, Hong Zhou
Abstract:
Streams carry water and sediment naturally by maintaining channel dimensions, pattern, and profile over time. Watershed erosion as a natural process has occurred to contribute sediment to streams over time. The formation of channel dimensions is complex. This study is to relate quantifiable and consistent channel dimensions at the bankfull stage to the corresponding watershed erosion estimation by the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Twelve sites of which drainage areas range from 7 to 100 square miles in the Hocking River Basin of Ohio were selected for the bankfull geometry determinations including width, depth, cross-section area, bed slope, and drainage area. The twelve sub-watersheds were chosen to obtain a good overall representation of the Hocking River Basin. It is of interest to determine how these bankfull channel dimensions are related to the soil erosion of corresponding sub-watersheds. Soil erosion is a natural process that has occurred in a watershed over time. The RUSLE was applied to estimate erosions of the twelve selected sub-watersheds where the bankfull geometry measurements were conducted. These quantified erosions of sub-watersheds are used to investigate correlations with bankfull channel dimensions including discharge, channel width, channel depth, cross-sectional area, and pebble distribution. It is found that drainage area, bankfull discharge and cross-sectional area correlates strongly with watershed erosion well. Furthermore, bankfull width and depth are moderately correlated with watershed erosion while the particle size, D50, of channel bed sediment is not well correlated with watershed erosion.Keywords: watershed, stream, sediment, channel
Procedia PDF Downloads 285564 Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Environmental Monitoring by Extracting Land Surface Temperature of Abbottabad, Pakistan
Authors: Malik Abid Hussain Khokhar, Muhammad Adnan Tahir, Hisham Bin Hafeez Awan
Abstract:
Continuous environmental determinism and climatic change in the entire globe due to increasing land surface temperature (LST) has become a vital phenomenon nowadays. LST is accelerating because of increasing greenhouse gases in the environment which results of melting down ice caps, ice sheets and glaciers. It has not only worse effects on vegetation and water bodies of the region but has also severe impacts on monsoon areas in the form of capricious rainfall and monsoon failure extensive precipitation. Environment can be monitored with the help of various geographic information systems (GIS) based algorithms i.e. SC (Single), DA (Dual Angle), Mao, Sobrino and SW (Split Window). Estimation of LST is very much possible from digital image processing of satellite imagery. This paper will encompass extraction of LST of Abbottabad using SW technique of GIS and Remote Sensing over last ten years by means of Landsat 7 ETM+ (Environmental Thematic Mapper) and Landsat 8 vide their Thermal Infrared (TIR Sensor) and Optical Land Imager (OLI sensor less Landsat 7 ETM+) having 100 m TIR resolution and 30 m Spectral Resolutions. These sensors have two TIR bands each; their emissivity and spectral radiance will be used as input statistics in SW algorithm for LST extraction. Emissivity will be derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold methods using 2-5 bands of OLI with the help of e-cognition software, and spectral radiance will be extracted TIR Bands (Band 10-11 and Band 6 of Landsat 7 ETM+). Accuracy of results will be evaluated by weather data as well. The successive research will have a significant role for all tires of governing bodies related to climate change departments.Keywords: environment, Landsat 8, SW Algorithm, TIR
Procedia PDF Downloads 354563 One-Class Classification Approach Using Fukunaga-Koontz Transform and Selective Multiple Kernel Learning
Authors: Abdullah Bal
Abstract:
This paper presents a one-class classification (OCC) technique based on Fukunaga-Koontz Transform (FKT) for binary classification problems. The FKT is originally a powerful tool to feature selection and ordering for two-class problems. To utilize the standard FKT for data domain description problem (i.e., one-class classification), in this paper, a set of non-class samples which exist outside of positive class (target class) describing boundary formed with limited training data has been constructed synthetically. The tunnel-like decision boundary around upper and lower border of target class samples has been designed using statistical properties of feature vectors belonging to the training data. To capture higher order of statistics of data and increase discrimination ability, the proposed method, termed one-class FKT (OC-FKT), has been extended to its nonlinear version via kernel machines and referred as OC-KFKT for short. Multiple kernel learning (MKL) is a favorable family of machine learning such that tries to find an optimal combination of a set of sub-kernels to achieve a better result. However, the discriminative ability of some of the base kernels may be low and the OC-KFKT designed by this type of kernels leads to unsatisfactory classification performance. To address this problem, the quality of sub-kernels should be evaluated, and the weak kernels must be discarded before the final decision making process. MKL/OC-FKT and selective MKL/OC-FKT frameworks have been designed stimulated by ensemble learning (EL) to weight and then select the sub-classifiers using the discriminability and diversities measured by eigenvalue ratios. The eigenvalue ratios have been assessed based on their regions on the FKT subspaces. The comparative experiments, performed on various low and high dimensional data, against state-of-the-art algorithms confirm the effectiveness of our techniques, especially in case of small sample size (SSS) conditions.Keywords: ensemble methods, fukunaga-koontz transform, kernel-based methods, multiple kernel learning, one-class classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 19562 Evaluation of Internal Friction Angle in Overconsolidated Granular Soil Deposits Using P- and S-Wave Seismic Velocities
Authors: Ehsan Pegah, Huabei Liu
Abstract:
Determination of the internal friction angle (φ) in natural soil deposits is an important issue in geotechnical engineering. The main objective of this study was to examine the evaluation of this parameter in overconsolidated granular soil deposits by using the P-wave velocity and the anisotropic components of S-wave velocity (i.e., both the vertical component (SV) and the horizontal component (SH) of S-wave). To this end, seventeen pairs of P-wave and S-wave seismic refraction profiles were carried out at three different granular sites in Iran using non-invasive seismic wave methods. The acquired shot gathers were processed, from which the P-wave, SV-wave and SH-wave velocities were derived. The reference values of φ and overconsolidation ratio (OCR) in the soil deposits were measured through laboratory tests. By assuming cross-anisotropy of the soils, the P-wave and S-wave velocities were utilized to develop an equation for calculating the coefficient of lateral earth pressure at-rest (K₀) based on the theory of elasticity for a cross-anisotropic medium. In addition, to develop an equation for OCR estimation in granular geomaterials in terms of SH/SV velocity ratios, a general regression analysis was performed on the resulting information from this research incorporated with the respective data published in the literature. The calculated K₀ values coupled with the estimated OCR values were finally employed in the Mayne and Kulhawy formula to evaluate φ in granular soil deposits. The results showed that reliable values of φ could be estimated based on the seismic wave velocities. The findings of this study may be used as the appropriate approaches for economic and non-invasive determination of in-situ φ in granular soil deposits using the surface seismic surveys.Keywords: angle of internal friction, overconsolidation ratio, granular soils, P-wave velocity, SV-wave velocity, SH-wave velocity
Procedia PDF Downloads 157561 Serum 25-Dihydroxy Vitamin D3 Level Estimation and Insulin Resistance in Women of 18-40 Years Age Group with Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome
Authors: Thakur Pushpawati, Singh Vinita, Agrawal Sarita, Mohapatra Eli
Abstract:
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a disease of endocrine and frequently encountered in women in their reproductive period, and it is characterized by clinical features of anovulation, clinical and biochemical features of hyperandrogenism, and PCOS morphology on ultrasonographic examination. In Indian scenario, only a few studies are available on the correlation of serum 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3 level and insulin level. The present study is a prospective case-control study and aims to estimate the concentration of serum 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3 and insulin resistance and determine the association of serum 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3 with insulin resistance in PCOS women of 18-40 years age group. In this study, the primary objective is to estimate the concentration of 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3, insulin, glycaemic status, calcium and phosphorus levels in 18-40 year age women with polycystic ovary syndrome and to compare these parameters with age and BMI matched healthy control of same age group women. The secondary objective is to determine the association between 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3 concentration and insulin resistance among PCOS cases in 18-40 years age group women. This study was carried on at outpatient Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Aiims Raipur. It took one year from the date of approval. In case, 32 women were diagnosed (Diagnosed PCOS cases as per Rotterdoms criteria among women of 18-40 years of age), as control group 32 women of 18-40 years of age were diagnosed As a result, serum insulin level was elevated among PCOS women along with 25-dihydroxy vitamin D3 deficiency.Conclude up, PCOS is more common in the age group of 20-40 years. There is a strong correlation between vitamin D deficiency and insulin resistance among PCOS patients.Keywords: vitamin D, insulin resistance, PCOS, reproductive age group
Procedia PDF Downloads 133560 Crop Leaf Area Index (LAI) Inversion and Scale Effect Analysis from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-Based Hyperspectral Data
Authors: Xiaohua Zhu, Lingling Ma, Yongguang Zhao
Abstract:
Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key structural characteristic of crops and plays a significant role in precision agricultural management and farmland ecosystem modeling. However, LAI retrieved from different resolution data contain a scaling bias due to the spatial heterogeneity and model non-linearity, that is, there is scale effect during multi-scale LAI estimate. In this article, a typical farmland in semi-arid regions of Chinese Inner Mongolia is taken as the study area, based on the combination of PROSPECT model and SAIL model, a multiple dimensional Look-Up-Table (LUT) is generated for multiple crops LAI estimation from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) hyperspectral data. Based on Taylor expansion method and computational geometry model, a scale transfer model considering both difference between inter- and intra-class is constructed for scale effect analysis of LAI inversion over inhomogeneous surface. The results indicate that, (1) the LUT method based on classification and parameter sensitive analysis is useful for LAI retrieval of corn, potato, sunflower and melon on the typical farmland, with correlation coefficient R2 of 0.82 and root mean square error RMSE of 0.43m2/m-2. (2) The scale effect of LAI is becoming obvious with the decrease of image resolution, and maximum scale bias is more than 45%. (3) The scale effect of inter-classes is higher than that of intra-class, which can be corrected efficiently by the scale transfer model established based Taylor expansion and Computational geometry. After corrected, the maximum scale bias can be reduced to 1.2%.Keywords: leaf area index (LAI), scale effect, UAV-based hyperspectral data, look-up-table (LUT), remote sensing
Procedia PDF Downloads 439559 Kirchoff Type Equation Involving the p-Laplacian on the Sierpinski Gasket Using Nehari Manifold Technique
Authors: Abhilash Sahu, Amit Priyadarshi
Abstract:
In this paper, we will discuss the existence of weak solutions of the Kirchhoff type boundary value problem on the Sierpinski gasket. Where S denotes the Sierpinski gasket in R² and S₀ is the intrinsic boundary of the Sierpinski gasket. M: R → R is a positive function and h: S × R → R is a suitable function which is a part of our main equation. ∆p denotes the p-Laplacian, where p > 1. First of all, we will define a weak solution for our problem and then we will show the existence of at least two solutions for the above problem under suitable conditions. There is no well-known concept of a generalized derivative of a function on a fractal domain. Recently, the notion of differential operators such as the Laplacian and the p-Laplacian on fractal domains has been defined. We recall the result first then we will address the above problem. In view of literature, Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations are studied extensively on regular domains (open connected domains) in contrast to fractal domains. In fractal domains, people have studied Laplacian equations more than p-Laplacian probably because in that case, the corresponding function space is reflexive and many minimax theorems which work for regular domains is applicable there which is not the case for the p-Laplacian. This motivates us to study equations involving p-Laplacian on the Sierpinski gasket. Problems on fractal domains lead to nonlinear models such as reaction-diffusion equations on fractals, problems on elastic fractal media and fluid flow through fractal regions etc. We have studied the above p-Laplacian equations on the Sierpinski gasket using fibering map technique on the Nehari manifold. Many authors have studied the Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations on regular domains using this Nehari manifold technique. In general Euler functional associated with such a problem is Frechet or Gateaux differentiable. So, a critical point becomes a solution to the problem. Also, the function space they consider is reflexive and hence we can extract a weakly convergent subsequence from a bounded sequence. But in our case neither the Euler functional is differentiable nor the function space is known to be reflexive. Overcoming these issues we are still able to prove the existence of at least two solutions of the given equation.Keywords: Euler functional, p-Laplacian, p-energy, Sierpinski gasket, weak solution
Procedia PDF Downloads 232558 Simulation of Soil-Pile Interaction of Steel Batter Piles Penetrated in Sandy Soil Subjected to Pull-Out Loads
Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill
Abstract:
Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.Keywords: slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity
Procedia PDF Downloads 341557 Reuse of Wastewater After Pretreatment Under Teril and Sand in Bechar City
Authors: Sara Seddiki, Maazouzi Abdelhak
Abstract:
The main objective of this modest work is to follow the physicochemical and bacteriological evolution of the wastewater from the town of Bechar subjected to purification by filtration according to various local supports, namely Sable and Terrill by reducing nuisances that undergo the receiving environment (Oued Bechar) and therefore make this water source reusable in different areas. The study first made it possible to characterize the urban wastewater of the Bechar wadi, which presents an environmental threat, thus allowing an estimation of the pollutant load, the chemical oxygen demand COD (145 mg / l) and the biological oxygen demand BOD5 (72 mg / l) revealed that these waters are less biodegradable (COD / BOD5 ratio = 0.62), have a fairly high conductivity (2.76 mS/cm), and high levels of mineral matter presented by chlorides and sulphates 390 and 596.1 mg / l respectively, with a pH of 8.1. The characterization of the sand dune (Beni Abbes) shows that quartz (97%) is the most present mineral. The granular analysis allowed us to determine certain parameters like the uniformity coefficient (CU) and the equivalent diameter, and scanning electron microscope (SEM) observations and X-ray analysis were performed. The study of filtered wastewater shows satisfactory and very encouraging treatment results, with complete elimination of total coliforms and streptococci and a good reduction of total aerobic germs in the sand and clay-sand filter. A good yield has been reported in the sand Terrill filter for the reduction of turbidity. The rates of reduction of organic matter in terms of the biological oxygen demand, in chemical oxygen demand recorded, are of the order of 60%. The elimination of sulphates is 40% for the sand filter.Keywords: urban wastewater, filtration, bacteriological and physicochemical parameters, sand, Terrill, Oued Bechar
Procedia PDF Downloads 95556 FT-NIR Method to Determine Moisture in Gluten Free Rice-Based Pasta during Drying
Authors: Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra
Abstract:
Pasta is one of the most widely consumed food products around the world. Rapid determination of the moisture content in pasta will assist food processors to provide online quality control of pasta during large scale production. Rapid Fourier transform near-infrared method (FT-NIR) was developed for determining moisture content in pasta. A calibration set of 150 samples, a validation set of 30 samples and a prediction set of 25 samples of pasta were used. The diffuse reflection spectra of different types of pastas were measured by FT-NIR analyzer in the 4,000-12,000 cm-1 spectral range. Calibration and validation sets were designed for the conception and evaluation of the method adequacy in the range of moisture content 10 to 15 percent (w.b) of the pasta. The prediction models based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, were developed in the near-infrared. Conventional criteria such as the R2, the root mean square errors of cross validation (RMSECV), root mean square errors of estimation (RMSEE) as well as the number of PLS factors were considered for the selection of three pre-processing (vector normalization, minimum-maximum normalization and multiplicative scatter correction) methods. Spectra of pasta sample were treated with different mathematic pre-treatments before being used to build models between the spectral information and moisture content. The moisture content in pasta predicted by FT-NIR methods had very good correlation with their values determined via traditional methods (R2 = 0.983), which clearly indicated that FT-NIR methods could be used as an effective tool for rapid determination of moisture content in pasta. The best calibration model was developed with min-max normalization (MMN) spectral pre-processing (R2 = 0.9775). The MMN pre-processing method was found most suitable and the maximum coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.9875 was obtained for the calibration model developed.Keywords: FT-NIR, pasta, moisture determination, food engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 257555 A Study of Fatigue Life Estimation of a Modular Unmanned Aerial Vehicle by Developing a Structural Health Monitoring System
Authors: Zain Ul Hassan, Muhammad Zain Ul Abadin, Muhammad Zubair Khan
Abstract:
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have now become of predominant importance for various operations, and an immense amount of work is going on in this specific category. The structural stability and life of these UAVs is key factor that should be considered while deploying them to different intelligent operations as their failure leads to loss of sensitive real-time data and cost. This paper presents an applied research on the development of a structural health monitoring system for a UAV designed and fabricated by deploying modular approach. Firstly, a modular UAV has been designed which allows to dismantle and to reassemble the components of the UAV without effecting the whole assembly of UAV. This novel approach makes the vehicle very sustainable and decreases its maintenance cost to a significant value by making possible to replace only the part leading to failure. Then the SHM for the designed architecture of the UAV had been specified as a combination of wings integrated with strain gauges, on-board data logger, bridge circuitry and the ground station. For the research purpose sensors have only been attached to the wings being the most load bearing part and as per analysis was done on ANSYS. On the basis of analysis of the load time spectrum obtained by the data logger during flight, fatigue life of the respective component has been predicted using fracture mechanics techniques of Rain Flow Method and Miner’s Rule. Thus allowing us to monitor the health of a specified component time to time aiding to avoid any failure.Keywords: fracture mechanics, rain flow method, structural health monitoring system, unmanned aerial vehicle
Procedia PDF Downloads 291554 Reducing the Imbalance Penalty Through Artificial Intelligence Methods Geothermal Production Forecasting: A Case Study for Turkey
Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar
Abstract:
In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 108