Search results for: flood risk perception
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 8018

Search results for: flood risk perception

5588 Association of 1565C/T Polymorphism of Integrin Beta-3 (ITGB3) Gene and Increased Risk for Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Premature Coronary Artery Disease among Iranian Population

Authors: Mehrdad Sheikhvatan, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Mehrdad Behmanesh, Shayan Ziaee

Abstract:

Contradictory results have been obtained regarding the role of integrin, beta 3 (ITGB3) gene polymorphisms in occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, we aimed to assess the association between 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene and increased risk for acute MI in patients who suffered premature CAD in Iranian population. Our prospective study included 1000 patients (492 men and 508 women aged 21 to 55 years) referred to Tehran Heart center during a period of four years from 2008 to 2011 with the final diagnosis of premature CAD and classified into two groups with history of MI (n = 461) and without of MI (n = 539). The polymorphism variants were determined by PCR-RFLP technique by entering 10% of randomized samples and then genotyping of the polymorphism was also conducted by High Resolution Melting (HRM) method. Among study samples, 640 were followed with a median follow-up time 45.74 months for determining association of long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and genotypes of polymorphisms. There was no significant difference in the frequency of 1565C/T polymorphism between the MI and non-MI groups. The frequency of wild genotype was 69.2% and 72.2%, the frequency of homozygous genotype was 21.3% and 18.4%, and the frequency of mutant genotype was 9.5% and 9.5%, respectively (p=0.505). Results were also similar when adjusted for covariates in a multivariate logistic regression model. No significant difference was also found in total-MACE free survival rate between the patients with different genotypes of 1565C/T polymorphism in both MI and non-MI group. The carriage of the 1565C/T polymorphism of ITGB3 gene seems unlikely to be a significant risk factor for the development of MI in Iranian patients with premature CAD. The presence of this ITGB3 gene polymorphism may not also predict long-term cardiac events.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, gene, integrin, beta 3, polymorphism

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5587 Assessing Organizational Resilience Capacity to Flooding: Index Development and Application to Greek Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Walter Leal-Filho, Panagiotis Vouros, Ioannis Nikolaou

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Organizational resilience capacity to extreme weather events (EWEs) has sparked a growth in scholarly attention over the past decade as an essential aspect in business continuity management, with supporting evidence for this claim to suggest that it retains a key role in successful responses to adverse situations, crises and shocks. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable to face floods compared to their larger counterparts, so they are disproportionately affected by such extreme weather events. The limited resources at their disposal, the lack of time and skills all conduce to inadequate preparedness to challenges posed by floods. SMEs tend to plan in the short-term, reacting to circumstances as they arise and focussing on their very survival. Likewise, they share less formalised structures and codified policies while they are most usually owner-managed, resulting in a command-and-control management culture. Such characteristics result in them having limited opportunities to recover from flooding and quickly turnaround their operation from a loss making to a profit making one. Scholars frame the capacity of business entities to be resilient upon an EWE disturbance (such as flash floods) as the rate of recovery and restoration of organizational performance to pre-disturbance conditions, the amount of disturbance (i.e. threshold level) a business can absorb before losing structural and/or functional components that will alter or cease operation, as well as the extent to which the organization maintains its function (i.e. impact resistance) before performance levels are driven to zero. Nevertheless, while it seems to be accepted as an essential trait of firms effectively transcending uncertain conditions, research deconstructing the enabling conditions and/or inhibitory factors of SMEs resilience capacity to natural hazards is still sparse, fragmentary and mostly fuelled by anecdotal evidence or normative assumptions. Focusing on the individual level of analysis, i.e. the individual enterprise and its endeavours to succeed, the emergent picture from this relatively new research strand delineates the specification of variables, conceptual relationships or dynamic boundaries of resilience capacity components in an attempt to provide prescriptions for policy-making as well as business management. This study will present the development of a flood resilience capacity index (FRCI) and its application to Greek SMEs. The proposed composite indicator pertains to cognitive, behavioral/managerial and contextual factors that influence an enterprise’s ability to shape effective responses to meet flood challenges. Through the proposed indicator-based approach, an analytical framework is set forth that will help standardize such assessments with the overarching aim of reducing the vulnerability of SMEs to flooding. This will be achieved by identifying major internal and external attributes explaining resilience capacity which is particularly important given the limited resources these enterprises have and that they tend to be primary sources of vulnerabilities in supply chain networks, generating Single Points of Failure (SPOF).

Keywords: Floods, Small & Medium-Sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, index development

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5586 Depth-Averaged Velocity Distribution in Braided Channel Using Calibrating Coefficients

Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

Abstract:

Rivers are the backbone of human civilization as well as one of the most important components of nature. In this paper, a method for predicting lateral depth-averaged velocity distribution in a two-flow braided compound channel is proposed. Experiments were conducted to study the boundary shear stress in the tip of the two flow path. The cross-section of the channel is divided into several panels to study the flow phenomenon on both the main channel and the flood plain. It can be inferred from the study that the flow coefficients get affected by boundary shear stress. In this study, the analytical solution of Shiono and knight (SKM) for lateral distributions of depth-averaged velocity and bed shear stress has been taken into account. The SKM is based on hydraulic parameters, which signify the bed friction factor (f), lateral eddy viscosity, and depth-averaged flow. While applying the SKM to different panels, the equations are solved considering the boundary conditions between panels. The boundary shear stress data, which are obtained from experimentation, are compared with CES software, which is based on quasi-one-dimensional Reynold's Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach.

Keywords: boundary shear stress, lateral depth-averaged velocity, two-flow braided compound channel, velocity distribution

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5585 Financial Assessment of the Hard Coal Mining in the Chosen Region in the Czech Republic: Real Options Methodology Application

Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

Abstract:

This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

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5584 Sources and Potential Ecological Risks of Heavy Metals in the Sediment Samples From Coastal Area in Ondo, Southwest Nigeria

Authors: Ogundele Lasun Tunde, Ayeku Oluwagbemiga Patrick

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Heavy metals are released into the sediments in aquatic environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources and they are considered as worldwide issue due to their deleterious ecological risks and food chain disruption. In this study, sediments samples were collected at three major sites (Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro) along Ondo coastal area using VanVeen grab sampler. The concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by employing Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The combined concentrations data were subjected to Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor approach for source identification and apportionment. The probable risks that might be posed by heavy metals in the sediment were estimated by potential and integrated ecological risks indices. Among the measured heavy metals, Fe had the average concentrations of 20.38 ± 2.86, 23.56 ± 4.16 and 25.32 ± 4.83 lg/g at Abereke, Awoye and Ayetoro sites, respectively. The PMF resulted in identification of four sources of heavy metals in the sediments. The resolved sources and their percentage contributions were oil exploration (39%), industrial waste/sludge (35%), detrital process (18%) and Mn-sources (8%). Oil exploration activities and industrial wastes are the major sources that contribute heavy metals into the coastal sediments. The major pollutants that posed ecological risks to the local aquatic ecosystem are As, Pb, Cr and Cd (40 B Ei ≤ 80) classifying the sites as moderate risk. The integrate risks values of Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro are 231.2, 234.0 and 236.4, respectively suggesting that the study areas had a moderate ecological risk. The study showed the suitability of PMF receptor model for source identification of heavy metals in the sediments. Also, the intensive anthropogenic activities and natural sources could largely discharge heavy metals into the study area, which may increase the heavy metal contents of the sediments and further contribute to the associated ecological risk, thus affecting the local aquatic ecosystem.

Keywords: positive matrix factorization, sediments, heavy metals, sources, ecological risks

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5583 Uncertainty and Multifunctionality as Bridging Concepts from Socio-Ecological Resilience to Infrastructure Finance in Water Resource Decision Making

Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

Abstract:

Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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5582 Genetic Association of SIX6 Gene with Pathogenesis of Glaucoma

Authors: Riffat Iqbal, Sidra Ihsan, Andleeb Batool, Maryam Mukhtar

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Glaucoma is a gathering of optic neuropathies described by dynamic degeneration of retinal ganglionic cells. It is clinically and innately heterogenous illness containing a couple of particular forms each with various causes and severities. Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is the most generally perceived kind of glaucoma. This study investigated the genetic association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs10483727 and rs33912345) at the SIX1/SIX6 locus with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the Pakistani population. The SIX6 gene plays an important role in ocular development and has been associated with morphology of the optic nerve. A total of 100 patients clinically diagnosed with glaucoma and 100 control individuals of age over 40 were enrolled in the study. Genomic DNA was extracted by organic extraction method. The SNP genotyping was done by (i) PCR based restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequencing method. Significant genetic associations were observed for rs10483727 (risk allele T) and rs33912345 (risk allele C) with POAG. Hence, it was concluded that Six6 gene is genetically associated with pathogenesis of Glaucoma in Pakistan.

Keywords: genotyping, Pakistani population, primary open-angle glaucoma, SIX6 gene

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5581 Comparison of Incidence and Risk Factors of Early Onset and Late Onset Preeclampsia: A Population Based Cohort Study

Authors: Sadia Munir, Diana White, Aya Albahri, Pratiwi Hastania, Eltahir Mohamed, Mahmood Khan, Fathima Mohamed, Ayat Kadhi, Haila Saleem

Abstract:

Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy. Prediction and management of preeclampsia is a challenge for obstetricians. To our knowledge, no major progress has been achieved in the prevention and early detection of preeclampsia. There is very little known about the clear treatment path of this disorder. Preeclampsia puts both mother and baby at risk of several short term- and long term-health problems later in life. There is huge health service cost burden in the health care system associated with preeclampsia and its complications. Preeclampsia is divided into two different types. Early onset preeclampsia develops before 34 weeks of gestation, and late onset develops at or after 34 weeks of gestation. Different genetic and environmental factors, prognosis, heritability, biochemical and clinical features are associated with early and late onset preeclampsia. Prevalence of preeclampsia greatly varies all over the world and is dependent on ethnicity of the population and geographic region. To authors best knowledge, no published data on preeclampsia exist in Qatar. In this study, we are reporting the incidence of preeclampsia in Qatar. The purpose of this study is to compare the incidence and risk factors of both early onset and late onset preeclampsia in Qatar. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from the hospital record of Women’s Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC), from May 2014-May 2016. Data collection tool, which was approved by HMC, was a researcher made extraction sheet that included information such as blood pressure during admission, socio demographic characteristics, delivery mode, and new born details. A total of 1929 patients’ files were identified by the hospital information management when they apply codes of preeclampsia. Out of 1929 files, 878 had significant gestational hypertension without proteinuria, 365 had preeclampsia, 364 had severe preeclampsia, and 188 had preexisting hypertension with superimposed proteinuria. In this study, 78% of the data was obtained by hospital electronic system (Cerner) and the remaining 22% was from patient’s paper records. We have gone through detail data extraction from 560 files. Initial data analysis has revealed that 15.02% of pregnancies were complicated with preeclampsia from May 2014-May 2016. We have analyzed difference in the two different disease entities in the ethnicity, maternal age, severity of hypertension, mode of delivery and infant birth weight. We have identified promising differences in the risk factors of early onset and late onset preeclampsia. The data from clinical findings of preeclampsia will contribute to increased knowledge about two different disease entities, their etiology, and similarities/differences. The findings of this study can also be used in predicting health challenges, improving health care system, setting up guidelines, and providing the best care for women suffering from preeclampsia.

Keywords: preeclampsia, incidence, risk factors, maternal

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5580 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries

Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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5579 Trajectories of PTSD from 2-3 Years to 5-6 Years among Asian Americans after the World Trade Center Attack

Authors: Winnie Kung, Xinhua Liu, Debbie Huang, Patricia Kim, Keon Kim, Xiaoran Wang, Lawrence Yang

Abstract:

Considerable Asian Americans were exposed to the World Trade Center attack due to the proximity of the site to Chinatown and a sizeable number of South Asians working in the collapsed and damaged buildings nearby. Few studies focused on Asians in examining the disaster’s mental health impact, and even less longitudinal studies were reported beyond the first couple of years after the event. Based on the World Trade Center Health Registry, this study examined the trajectory of PTSD of individuals directly exposed to the attack from 2-3 to 5-6 years after the attack, comparing Asians against the non-Hispanic White group. Participants included 2,431 Asians and 31,455 Whites. Trajectories were delineated into the resilient, chronic, delayed-onset and remitted groups using PTSD checklist cut-off score at 44 at the 2 waves. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare the poorer trajectories against the resilient as a reference group, using predictors of baseline sociodemographic, exposure to the disaster, lower respiratory symptoms and previous depression/anxiety disorder diagnosis, and recruitment source as the control variable. Asians had significant lower socioeconomic status in terms of income, education and employment status compared to Whites. Over 3/4 of participants from both races were resilient, though slightly less for Asians than Whites (76.5% vs 79.8%). Asians had a higher proportion with chronic PTSD (8.6% vs 7.4%) and remission (5.9% vs 3.4%) than Whites. A considerable proportion of participants had delayed-onset in both races (9.1% Asians vs 9.4% Whites). The distribution of trajectories differed significantly by race (p<0.0001) with Asians faring poorer. For Asians, in the chronic vs resilient group, significant protective factors included age >65, annual household income >$50,000, and never married vs married/cohabiting; risk factors were direct disaster exposure, job loss due to 9/11, lost someone, and tangible loss; lower respiratory symptoms and previous mental disorder diagnoses. Similar protective and risk factors were noted for the delayed-onset group, except education being protective; and being an immigrant a risk. Between the 2 comparisons, the chronic group was more vulnerable than the delayed-onset as expected. It should also be noted that in both comparisons, Asians’ current employment status had no significant impact on their PTSD trajectory. Comparing between Asians against Whites, the direction of the relationships between the predictors and the PTSD trajectories were mostly the same, although more factors were significant for Whites than for Asians. A few factors showed significant racial difference: Higher risk for lower respiratory symptoms for Whites than Asians, higher risk for pre-9/11 mental disorder diagnosis for Asians than Whites, and immigrant a risk factor for the remitted vs resilient groups for Whites but not for Asians. Over 17% Asians still suffered from PTSD 5-6 years after the WTC attack signified its persistent impact which incurred substantial human, social and economic costs. The more disadvantaged socioeconomic status of Asians rendered them more vulnerable in their mental health trajectories relative to Whites. Together with their well-documented low tendency to seek mental health help, outreach effort to this population is needed to ensure follow-up treatment and prevention.

Keywords: PTSD, Asian Americans, World Trade Center Attack, racial differences

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5578 Customer Adoption and Attitudes in Mobile Banking in Sri Lanka

Authors: Prasansha Kumari

Abstract:

This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

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5577 Synaesthetic Metaphors in Persian: a Cognitive Corpus Based and Comparative Perspective

Authors: A. Afrashi

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Introduction: Synaesthesia is a term denoting the perception or description of the perception of one sense modality in terms of another. In literature, synaesthesia refers to a technique adopted by writers to present ideas, characters or places in such a manner that they appeal to more than one sense like hearing, seeing, smell etc. at a given time. In everyday language too we find many examples of synaesthesia. We commonly hear phrases like ‘loud colors’, ‘frozen silence’ and ‘warm colors’, ‘bitter cold’ etc. Empirical cognitive studies have proved that synaesthetic representations both in literature and everyday languages are constrained ie. they do not map randomly among sensory domains. From the beginning of the 20th century Synaesthesia has been a research domain both in literature and structural linguistics. However the exploration of cognitive mechanisms motivating synaesthesia, have made it an important topic in 21st century cognitive linguistics and literary studies. Synaesthetic metaphors are linguistic representations of those mental mechanisms, the study of which reveals invaluable facts about perception, cognition and conceptualization. According to the main tenets of cognitive approach to language and literature, unified and similar cognitive mechanisms are active both in everyday language and literature, and synaesthesia is one of those cognitive mechanisms. Main objective of the present research is to answer the following questions: What types of sense transfers are accessible in Persian synaesthetic metaphors. How are these types of sense transfers cognitively explained. What are the results of cross-linguistic comparative study of synaestetic metaphors based on the existing observations? Methodology: The present research employs a cognitive - corpus based method, and the theoretical framework adopted to analyze linguistic synaesthesia is the contemporary theory of metaphor, where conceptual metaphor is the result of systemic mappings across cognitive domains. Persian Language Data- base (PLDB) in the Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies which consists mainly of Persian modern prose, is searched for synaesthetic metaphors. Then for each metaphorical structure, the source and target domains are determined. Then sense transfers are identified and the types of synaesthetic metaphors recognized. Findings: Persian synaesthetic metaphors conform to the hierarchical distribution principle, according to which transfers tend to go from touch to taste to smell to sound and to sight, not vice versa. In other words mapping from more accessible or basic concepts onto less accessible or less basic ones seems more natural. Furthermore the most frequent target domain in Persian synaesthetic metaphors is sound. Certain characteristics of Persian synaesthetic metaphors are comparable with existing related researches carried on English, French, Hungarian and Chinese synaesthetic metaphors. Conclusion: Cognitive corpus based approaches to linguistic synaesthesia, are applicable to stylistics and literary criticism and this recent research domain is an efficient approach to study cross linguistic variations to find out which of the five senses is dominant cross linguistically and cross culturally as the target domain in metaphorical mappings , and so forth receiving dominance in conceptualizations.

Keywords: cognitive semantics, conceptual metaphor, synaesthesia, corpus based approach

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5576 Automatic Vowel and Consonant's Target Formant Frequency Detection

Authors: Othmane Bouferroum, Malika Boudraa

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In this study, a dual exponential model for CV formant transition is derived from locus theory of speech perception. Then, an algorithm for automatic vowel and consonant’s target formant frequency detection is developed and tested on real speech. The results show that vowels and consonants are detected through transitions rather than their small stable portions. Also, vowel reduction is clearly observed in our data. These results are confirmed by the observations made in perceptual experiments in the literature.

Keywords: acoustic invariance, coarticulation, formant transition, locus equation

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5575 Hazardous Gas Detection Robot in Coal Mines

Authors: Kanchan J. Kakade, S. A. Annadate

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This paper presents design and development of underground coal mine monitoring using mbed arm cortex controller and ZigBee communication. Coal mine is a special type of mine which is dangerous in nature. Safety is the most important feature of a coal industry for proper functioning. It’s not only for employees and workers but also for environment and nation. Many coal producing countries in the world face phenomenal frequently occurred accidents in coal mines viz, gas explosion, flood, and fire breaking out during coal mines exploitation. Thus, such emissions of various gases from coal mines are necessary to detect with the help of robot. Coal is a combustible, sedimentary, organic rock, which is made up of mainly carbon, hydrogen and oxygen. Coal Mine Detection Robot mainly detects mash gas and carbon monoxide. The mash gas is the kind of the mixed gas which mainly make up of methane in the underground of the coal mine shaft, and sometimes it abbreviate to methane. It is formed from vegetation, which has been fused between other rock layers and altered by the combined effects of heat and pressure over millions of years to form coal beds. Coal has many important uses worldwide. The most significant uses of coal are in electricity generation, steel production, cement manufacturing and as a liquid fuel.

Keywords: Zigbee communication, various sensors, hazardous gases, mbed arm cortex M3 core controller

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5574 Analysis of Performance Improvement Factors in Supply Chain Manufacturing Using Analytic Network Process and Kaizen

Authors: Juliza Hidayati, Yesie M. Sinuhaji, Sawarni Hasibuan

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A company producing drinking water through many incompatibility issues that affect supply chain performance. The study was conducted to determine the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain and improve it. To obtain the dominant factors affecting the performance of the supply chain used Analytic Network Process, while to improve performance is done by using Kaizen. Factors affecting the performance of the supply chain to be a reference to identify the cause of the non-conformance. Results weighting using ANP indicates that the dominant factor affecting the level of performance is the precision of the number of shipments (15%), the ability of the fulfillment of the booking amount (12%), and the number of rejected products when signing (12%). Incompatibility of the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain are identified, so that found the root cause of the problem is most dominant. Based on the weight of Risk Priority Number (RPN) gained the most dominant root cause of the problem, namely the poorly maintained engine, the engine worked for three shifts, machine parts that are not contained in the plant. Improvements then performed using the Kaizen method of systematic and sustainable.

Keywords: analytic network process, booking amount, risk priority number, supply chain performance

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5573 New Insights into Ethylene and Auxin Interplay during Tomato Ripening

Authors: Bruna Lima Gomes, Vanessa Caroline De Barros Bonato, Luciano Freschi, Eduardo Purgatto

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Plant hormones are long known to be tightly associated with fruit development and are involved in controlling various aspects of fruit ripening. For fleshy fruits, ripening is characterized for changes in texture, color, aroma and other parameters that markedly contribute to its quality. Ethylene is one of the major players regulating the ripening-related processes, but emerging evidences suggest that auxin is also part of this dynamic control. Thus, the aim of this study was providing new insights into the auxin role during ripening and the hormonal interplay between auxin and ethylene. For that, tomato fruits (Micro-Tom) were collected at mature green stage and separated in four groups: one for indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) treatment, one for ethylene, one for a combination of IAA and ethylene, and one for control. Hormone solution was injected through the stylar apex, while mock samples were injected with buffer only. For ethylene treatments, fruits were exposed to gaseous hormone. Then, fruits were left to ripen under standard conditions and to assess ripening development, hue angle was reported as color indicator and ethylene production was measured by gas chromatography. The transcript levels of three ripening-related ethylene receptors (LeETR3, LeETR4 and LeETR6) were evaluated by RT-qPCR. Results showed that ethylene treatment induced ripening, stimulated ethylene production, accelerated color changes and induced receptor expression, as expected. Nonetheless, auxin treatment showed the opposite effect once fruits remained green for longer time than control group and ethylene perception has changed, taking account the reduced levels of receptor transcripts. Further, treatment with both hormones revealed that auxin effect in delaying ripening was predominant, even with higher levels of ethylene. Altogether, the data suggest that auxin modulates several aspects of the tomato fruit ripening modifying the ethylene perception. The knowledge about hormonal control of fruit development will help design new strategies for effective manipulation of ripening regarding fruit quality and brings a new level of complexity on fruit ripening regulation.

Keywords: ethylene, auxin, fruit ripening, hormonal crosstalk

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5572 Fund Seekers’ Deception in Peer-to-Peer Lending in Times of COVID

Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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5571 Combined Effect of Gender Differences and Fatiguing Task on Unipedal Postural Balance and Functional Mobility in Adults with Multiple Sclerosis

Authors: Sonda Jallouli, Omar Hammouda, Imen Ben Dhia, Salma Sakka, Chokri Mhiri, Mohamed Habib Elleuch, Abedlmoneem Yahia, Sameh Ghroubi

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Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by gender differences with affecting women two to four times more than men, but the disease progression is faster and more severe in men. Fatigue represents one of the most frequent and disabling symptoms related to MS. Results of previous studies regarding gender differences in fatigue perception in MS persons are contradictory. Besides, fatigue has been shown to affect negatively postural balance and functional mobility in MS persons. However, no study has taken into account gender differences in the response of these physical parameters to a fatiguing protocol in MS persons. Given the reduction of autonomy due to the alteration of these parameters induced by fatigue and the importance of gender differences in postural balance training programs in fatigued men and women with MS, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of gender difference on unipedal postural balance and functional mobility after performing a fatiguing task in MS adults. Methods: Eleven women (30.29 ± 7.99 years) and seven men (30.91 ± 8.19 years) with relapsing-remitting MS performed a fatiguing protocol: three sets of the 5×sit to stand test (5-STST), six-minute walk test (6MWT) followed by three sets of the 5-STST. Unipedal balance, functional mobility, and fatigue perception were measured prefatigue (T0) and post fatigue (T3) using a clinical unipedal balance test, timed up and go test (TUGT), and analogic visual scale of fatigue (VASF), respectively. Heart rate (HR) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were recorded before, during and after the fatiguing task. Results: Compared to women, men showed an impairment of unipedal balance on the dominant leg (p<0.001, d=0.52) and mobility (p<0.001, d=3) via reducing unipedal stance time and increasing duration of TUGT execution, respectively. No gender differences were observed in 6MWT, 5-STST, HR, RPE and VASF scores. Conclusion: Fatiguing protocol negatively affected unipedal postural balance and mobility only in men. These gender differences were inconclusive but can be taken into account in postural balance rehabilitation programs for persons with MS.

Keywords: functional mobility, fatiguing exercises, multiple sclerosis, sex differences, unipedal balance

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5570 Students’ Perception of Careers in Shared Services Industry

Authors: Oksana Koval, Stephen Nabareseh

Abstract:

Talent attraction is identified as a top priority between 2015 – 2020 for Shared Service Centers (SSCs) based on an industry-wide studies. Due to market dynamics and the structure of labour force, shared service industries in Eastern and Central Europe strive for qualified graduates with appropriate and unique skills to occupy such job places. The inbuilt interest and course prescriptions undertaken by prospective job seekers determine whether SSCs will eventually admit such professionals. This paper assesses students’ overall perception of careers in the shared services industry and further diagnosis gender impact and influence on the job preferences among students. Questionnaires were distributed among students in the Czech Republic universities using an online mode. Respondents vary by study year, gender, age, course of study, and work preferences. A total of 1283 student responses has been analyzed using Stata data analytics software. It was discovered that over 70% of respondents who are aware of SSCs are quite ignorant of the job opportunities offered by the centers. While majority of respondents are interested in support positions (e.g. procurement specialist, planning specialist, human resource specialist, process improvement specialist and payroll specialist, etc.), around a third of respondents (32.8 percent) will decline a job offer from SSCs. The analysis also revealed that males are more likely than females to seek careers in international companies, hence, tend to be more favorable towards shared service jobs. Females, however, have stronger preferences towards marketing and PR jobs. The research results provide insights into the job aspirations of students interviewed. The findings provide a huge resource for recruitment agencies and shared service industries to renew and redirect their search for talents into SSCs. Based on the fact that great portion of respondents are planning to start their career within 6-12 months, the research provides important highlights for the talent attraction and recruitment strategies in the industry and provides a curriculum direction in academia.

Keywords: Czech Republic labour market, gender, talent attraction, shared service centers, students

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5569 Effects of Physical Activity on the Association of CETP Gene with HDL Cholesterol Levels in Korean Population

Authors: Jae Woong Sull, Sun Ha Jee

Abstract:

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels are associated with decreased risk of coronary artery disease. Several genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for HDL cholesterol levels have implicated cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) as possibly causal. We tested for the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CETP gene and HDL cholesterol levels in Korean population. Subjects were selected from the Korean Metabolic Syndrome Research Initiative study in the Bundang-Gu area. A total of 2,304 individuals from Bundang-Gu were recruited in 2008. Other subjects were selected from the Severance Hospital (N=4,294). SNP rs6499861 in the CETP gene was associated with mean HDL cholesterol levels (effect per allele -2.044 mg/dL, p=7.23×10-7). Subjects with the CG/GG genotype had a 1.46 -fold (range 1.24–1.72-fold) higher risk of having abnormal HDL cholesterol levels (<40 mg/dL) than subjects with the CC genotype. When analyzed by gender, the association of CETP was stronger in women than in men. When analyzed by physical activity behavior, the association with CETP was much stronger in male subjects with low physical activity (OR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.23-1.92, P=0.0001) than in male subjects with high physical activity. This study clearly demonstrates that genetic variants in CETP influence HDL cholesterol levels in Korean adults.

Keywords: CETP, HDL cholesterol, physical activity, polymorphisms

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5568 Heavy Metals and Carcinogenic Risk Assessment in Free-Ranged Livestock of Lead-Contaminated Goldmine Communities of Zamfara State, Northern Nigeria

Authors: Sulaiman Rabiu, Muazu Gusau Abubakar, Jafar Usman Zakari

Abstract:

The consumption of meat is of great importance as it provides a good source of proteins and significant amount of essential trace element to the body. However, contamination of meat and meat products with heavy metals is becoming a serious threat to food safety and public health. Therefore, the present study is aimed to evaluate the concentration of some heavy metals in muscles and entrails of free-ranged cattle, sheep and goats. A total of sixty (60) fresh samples of muscles, liver, kidney, small intestines and stomach of free ranged cattle, sheep and goats were collected from abattoirs of different goldmine communities of Anka, Bukkuyum, Maru andTalata-Mafara Local Government Areas of Zamfara State, Nigeria. The samples were digested using 10 mL of a mixed 70% high grade concentration of HNO₃ and 65% HCl (4:1 v/v); the mixture was heated until dense fumes disappeared forming a clear transparent solution and diluted to 50 mL with deionized water. Actual concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Co, As, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn were determined using Microwave Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrophotometer (MP-AES). From the results obtained, goat liver had the highest mean concentration of lead, arsenic, cobalt and manganese (12.43± 0.31, 14.25±0.32, 3.47± 0.86 and 12.68± 0.92 mg/kg respectively) while goat kidney had the highest concentration of copper and zinc (10.08±0.61 and 24.16±1.30 mg/kg respectively). The highest concentrations of cadmium and nickel were recorded in sheep kidney (7.75± 0.65 and 2.08±0.10 mg/kg respectively). Cattle muscles had the highest chromium concentration than all the organs analysed. The target hazard quotients (THQs) for all the metals were below 1.0, but TR which is a risk indices for carcinogenicity indicates an alarming result that requires stringent control to protect public health.Therefore, intensive public health awareness on the risk associated with contamination of heavy metals in meat should be advocated.

Keywords: contamination, goldmine, heavy metals, meat

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5567 Mitigation of Indoor Human Exposure to Traffic-Related Fine Particulate Matter (PM₂.₅)

Authors: Ruchi Sharma, Rajasekhar Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Motor vehicles emit a number of air pollutants, among which fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is of major concern in cities with high population density due to its negative impacts on air quality and human health. Typically, people spend more than 80% of their time indoors. Consequently, human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ in indoor environments has received considerable attention. Most of the public residential buildings in tropical countries are designed for natural ventilation where indoor air quality tends to be strongly affected by the migration of air pollutants of outdoor origin. However, most of the previously reported traffic-related PM₂.₅ exposure assessment studies relied on ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations and thus, the health impact of traffic-related PM₂.₅ on occupants in naturally ventilated buildings remains largely unknown. Therefore, a systematic field study was conducted to assess indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ with and without mitigation measures in a typical naturally ventilated residential apartment situated near a road carrying a large volume of traffic. Three PM₂.₅ exposure scenarios were simulated in this study, i.e., Case 1: keeping all windows open with a ceiling fan on as per the usual practice, Case 2: keeping all windows fully closed as a mitigation measure, and Case 3: keeping all windows fully closed with the operation of a portable indoor air cleaner as an additional mitigation measure. The indoor to outdoor (I/O) ratios for PM₂.₅ mass concentrations were assessed and the effectiveness of using the indoor air cleaner was quantified. Additionally, potential human health risk based on the bioavailable fraction of toxic trace elements was also estimated for the three cases in order to identify a suitable mitigation measure for reducing PM₂.₅ exposure indoors. Traffic-related PM₂.₅ levels indoors exceeded the air quality guidelines (12 µg/m³) in Case 1, i.e., under natural ventilation conditions due to advective flow of outdoor air into the indoor environment. However, while using the indoor air cleaner, a significant reduction (p < 0.05) in the PM₂.₅ exposure levels was noticed indoors. Specifically, the effectiveness of the air cleaner in terms of reducing indoor PM₂.₅ exposure was estimated to be about 74%. Moreover, potential human health risk assessment also indicated a substantial reduction in potential health risk while using the air cleaner. This is the first study of its kind that evaluated the indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ and identified a suitable exposure mitigation measure that can be implemented in densely populated cities to realize health benefits.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, indoor air cleaner, potential human health risk, vehicular emissions

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5566 Evaluation of Soil Erosion Risk and Prioritization for Implementation of Management Strategies in Morocco

Authors: Lahcen Daoudi, Fatima Zahra Omdi, Abldelali Gourfi

Abstract:

In Morocco, as in most Mediterranean countries, water scarcity is a common situation because of low and unevenly distributed rainfall. The expansions of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas and tourist resorts, contribute to an increase of water demand. Therefore in the 1960s Morocco embarked on an ambitious program to increase the number of dams to boost water retention capacity. However, the decrease in the capacity of these reservoirs caused by sedimentation is a major problem; it is estimated at 75 million m3/year. Dams and reservoirs became unusable for their intended purposes due to sedimentation in large rivers that result from soil erosion. Soil erosion presents an important driving force in the process affecting the landscape. It has become one of the most serious environmental problems that raised much interest throughout the world. Monitoring soil erosion risk is an important part of soil conservation practices. The estimation of soil loss risk is the first step for a successful control of water erosion. The aim of this study is to estimate the soil loss risk and its spatial distribution in the different fields of Morocco and to prioritize areas for soil conservation interventions. The approach followed is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using remote sensing and GIS, which is the most popular empirically based model used globally for erosion prediction and control. This model has been tested in many agricultural watersheds in the world, particularly for large-scale basins due to the simplicity of the model formulation and easy availability of the dataset. The spatial distribution of the annual soil loss was elaborated by the combination of several factors: rainfall erosivity, soil erodability, topography, and land cover. The average annual soil loss estimated in several basins watershed of Morocco varies from 0 to 50t/ha/year. Watersheds characterized by high-erosion-vulnerability are located in the North (Rif Mountains) and more particularly in the Central part of Morocco (High Atlas Mountains). This variation of vulnerability is highly correlated to slope variation which indicates that the topography factor is the main agent of soil erosion within these basin catchments. These results could be helpful for the planning of natural resources management and for implementing sustainable long-term management strategies which are necessary for soil conservation and for increasing over the projected economic life of the dam implemented.

Keywords: soil loss, RUSLE, GIS-remote sensing, watershed, Morocco

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5565 Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome According to Different Criteria in Population over 20 Years Old in Ahvaz

Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Leila Yazdanpanah

Abstract:

Objective: Metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance syndrome or syndrome X is a collection of abdominal obesity, hypertension, glucose intolerance and lipid abnormalities (elevated triglycerides, elevated LDL, and decrease the amount of HDL). That increases the incidence of diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in people over 20 years of Ahvaz according to IDF, ATPIII, Harmonized I and Harmonized II. Material & Methods: A cross-sectional study with a random cluster sampling in six health centers in Ahvaz was done. After obtaining informed consent, questionnaire for each person filled up including demographic data and examinations, including blood pressure in sitting position, weight, height, waist circumference, and waist circumference measurement. Results: From all participating 912 people, (434 (2/47%) male and 478 (2/52%) female) were evaluated. Mean age was 42/27± 14years (44/2±14/26 for male and 40/5±13/5 for female). Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 22/8%, 28/4%, 30/9% and 16/9% according to ATPIII, IDF, Harmonized I and Harmonized II criteria respectively and increased with age in both sexes. IDF and Harmonized I had most kappa coordination (0/94). Conclusion: The results show a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ahvaz. So, identification of the risk factors should be attempted to prevent metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, IDF, ATP III, prevalence

Procedia PDF Downloads 559
5564 Prevalence of Shift Work Disorders among Mongolian Nurses

Authors: Davaakhuu Vandannyam, Amarsaikhan Dashtseren, Oyungoo Badamdorj

Abstract:

Background: Shift work and extended working hours are increasing in many industries and organization's in the world. Over a 24 hour period, the circadian clock regulates sleep/wake patterns, body temperature, hormone levels, digestion and many other functions. Depending on the time of day or night, the human body is programmed for periods of wakefulness and sleep, high and low body temperature, high and low digestive activity and so on. Shift work is highly prevalent in industrialized societies (>20%) but, when it includes night work, it has pronounced negative effects on sleep, subjective and physiological sleepiness, performance, accident risk, as well as on health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and certain forms of cancer. Method: In this cross-sectional field study, 634 shift work and day work nurses from a plant were involved, with participation rate of 100% (634 nurses). The general health questionnaire (GHQ-28) and RLS, ESS, ISI, FSS were used to evaluate the level of insomnia, sleepiness, fatigue and restless legs syndrome, respectively. Results: As a result of research on some indicators of health risks caused from work shift, it was proven that prevalence of restless legs syndrome was at 5.5% and 25.9% are in risk of becoming sick, 42.3% are in fatigue, 3.5% in high stage of insomnia and 27.4% are sleepy on duty. Insomnia of nurses mainly affected from long-hour shift, dissatisfaction, workload, lose of focus and use of coffee. There is sleepiness lies in the workplace due to number of shifts, unsatisfactory performance and emergency calls between shifts. It has been determined that risk of sickness influenced by number of shifts in a month and long hour shift, dissatisfaction and use of coffee and divisions are causing restless legs syndrome. Conclusions: Among the nurses, it was found that the prevalence of insomnia is 31.6%, sleepiness 27.4%, fatigue 42.3%, restless legs syndrome 35% and stress 25.9%. These factors of shift work affecting health tend to go up as working hours increase and more common among shift work nurses.

Keywords: shiftwork, insomnia, sleepiness, restless

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
5563 Influence of Vegetable Oil-Based Controlled Cutting Fluid Impinging Supply System on Micro Hardness in Machining of Ti-6Al-4V

Authors: Salah Gariani, Islam Shyha, Fawad Inam, Dehong Huo

Abstract:

A controlled cutting fluid impinging supply system (CUT-LIST) was developed to deliver an accurate amount of cutting fluid into the machining zone via well-positioned coherent nozzles based on a calculation of the heat generated. The performance of the CUT-LIST was evaluated against a conventional flood cutting fluid supply system during step shoulder milling of Ti-6Al-4V using vegetable oil-based cutting fluid. In this paper, the micro-hardness of the machined surface was used as the main criterion to compare the two systems. CUT-LIST provided significant reductions in cutting fluid consumption (up to 42%). Both systems caused increased micro-hardness value at 100 µm from the machined surface, whereas a slight reduction in micro-hardness of 4.5% was measured when using CUL-LIST. It was noted that the first 50 µm is the soft sub-surface promoted by thermal softening, whereas down to 100 µm is the hard sub-surface caused by the cyclic internal work hardening and then gradually decreased until it reached the base material nominal hardness. It can be concluded that the CUT-LIST has always given lower micro-hardness values near the machined surfaces in all conditions investigated.

Keywords: impinging supply system, micro-hardness, shoulder milling, Ti-6Al-4V, vegetable oil-based cutting fluid

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5562 Transcriptome Analysis for Insights into Disease Progression in Dengue Patients

Authors: Abhaydeep Pandey, Shweta Shukla, Saptamita Goswami, Bhaswati Bandyopadhyay, Vishnampettai Ramachandran, Sudhanshu Vrati, Arup Banerjee

Abstract:

Dengue virus infection is now considered as one of the most important mosquito-borne infection in human. The virus is known to promote vascular permeability, cerebral edema leading to Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or Dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Dengue infection has known to be endemic in India for over two centuries as a benign and self-limited disease. In the last couple of years, the disease symptoms have changed, manifesting severe secondary complication. So far, Delhi has experienced 12 outbreaks of dengue virus infection since 1997 with the last reported in 2014-15. Without specific antivirals, the case management of high-risk dengue patients entirely relies on supportive care, involving constant monitoring and timely fluid support to prevent hypovolemic shock. Nonetheless, the diverse clinical spectrum of dengue disease, as well as its initial similarity to other viral febrile illnesses, presents a challenge in the early identification of this high-risk group. WHO recommends the use of warning signs to identify high-risk patients, but warning signs generally appear during, or just one day before the development of severe illness, thus, providing only a narrow window for clinical intervention. The ability to predict which patient may develop DHF and DSS may improve the triage and treatment. With the recent discovery of high throughput RNA sequencing allows us to understand the disease progression at the genomic level. Here, we will collate the results of RNA-Sequencing data obtained recently from PBMC of different categories of dengue patients from India and will discuss the possible role of deregulated genes and long non-coding RNAs NEAT1 for development of disease progression.

Keywords: long non-coding RNA (lncRNA), dengue, peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC), nuclear enriched abundant transcript 1 (NEAT1), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome (DSS)

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5561 Price Compensation Mechanism with Unmet Demand for Public-Private Partnership Projects

Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

Abstract:

Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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5560 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making

Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

Abstract:

The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
5559 Volatility Index, Fear Sentiment and Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Indian Evidence

Authors: Pratap Chandra Pati, Prabina Rajib, Parama Barai

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The traditional finance theory neglects the role of sentiment factor in asset pricing. However, the behavioral approach to asset-pricing based on noise trader model and limit to arbitrage includes investor sentiment as a priced risk factor in the assist pricing model. Investor sentiment affects stock more that are vulnerable to speculation, hard to value and risky to arbitrage. It includes small stocks, high volatility stocks, growth stocks, distressed stocks, young stocks and non-dividend-paying stocks. Since the introduction of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) in 1993, it is used as a measure of future volatility in the stock market and also as a measure of investor sentiment. CBOE VIX index, in particular, is often referred to as the ‘investors’ fear gauge’ by public media and prior literature. The upward spikes in the volatility index are associated with bouts of market turmoil and uncertainty. High levels of the volatility index indicate fear, anxiety and pessimistic expectations of investors about the stock market. On the contrary, low levels of the volatility index reflect confident and optimistic attitude of investors. Based on the above discussions, we investigate whether market-wide fear levels measured volatility index is priced factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market. First, we investigate the performance and validity of Fama and French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model in the Indian stock market. Second, we explore whether India volatility index as a proxy for fearful market-based sentiment indicators affect the cross section of stock returns after controlling for well-established risk factors such as market excess return, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Asset pricing tests are performed using monthly data on CNX 500 index constituent stocks listed on the National stock exchange of India Limited (NSE) over the sample period that extends from January 2008 to March 2017. To examine whether India volatility index, as an indicator of fear sentiment, is a priced risk factor, changes in India VIX is included as an explanatory variable in the Fama-French three-factor model as well as Carhart four-factor model. For the empirical testing, we use three different sets of test portfolios used as the dependent variable in the in asset pricing regressions. The first portfolio set is the 4x4 sorts on the size and B/M ratio. The second portfolio set is the 4x4 sort on the size and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. The third portfolio set is the 2x3x2 independent triple-sorting on size, B/M and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. We find evidence that size, value and momentum factors continue to exist in Indian stock market. However, VIX index does not constitute a priced risk factor in the cross-section of returns. The inseparability of volatility and jump risk in the VIX is a possible explanation of the current findings in the study.

Keywords: India VIX, Fama-French model, Carhart four-factor model, asset pricing

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