Search results for: time series models

Authors: Igor Velickovski, Aleksandar Stojkov, Ivana Rajkovic

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This paper investigates drivers of shock synchronization using quarterly data for 27 European countries over the period 1999-2013 and taking into account the difference between core (‘the euro area core locomotive’) and peripheral euro area and transition countries (‘the peripheral wagons’). Results from panel error-correction models suggest that core of the euro area has not been strong magnetizer of the shock convergence of periphery and transition countries since the euro inception as a result of the offsetting effects of the various factors that affected the shock convergence process. These findings challenge the endogeneity hypothesis in the optimum currency area framework and rather support the specialisation paradigm which is concerning evidence for the future stability of the euro area.

Keywords: dynamic panel models, shock synchronisation, trade, optimum currency area

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Fernanda Bravo Cornejo, Camilo Cerda Sarabia, Belén Díaz Díaz, Diego Santibañez Oyarce, Esteban Gómez Terán, Hugo Osses Prado, Raúl Caulier-Cisterna, Jorge Vergara-Quezada, Ana Moya-Beltrán

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Streptococcus pyogenes is a gram-positive bacteria involved in a wide range of diseases and is a major-human-specific bacterial pathogen. In Chile, this year the 'Ministerio de Salud' declared an alert due to the increase in strains throughout the year. This increase can be attributed to the multitude of factors including antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and Virulence Factors (VF). Understanding these VF and AMR is crucial for developing effective strategies and improving public health responses. Moreover, experimental identification and characterization of these pathogenic mechanisms are labor-intensive and time-consuming. Therefore, new computational methods are required to provide robust techniques for accelerating this identification. Advances in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms represent the opportunity to refine and accelerate the discovery of VF associated with Streptococcus pyogenes. In this work, we evaluate the accuracy of various machine learning models in predicting the virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pyogenes, with the objective of providing new methods for identifying the pathogenic mechanisms of this organism.Our comprehensive approach involved the download of 32,798 genbank files of S. pyogenes from NCBI dataset, coupled with the incorporation of data from Virulence Factor Database (VFDB) and Antibiotic Resistance Database (CARD) which contains sequences of AMR gene sequence and resistance profiles. These datasets provided labeled examples of both virulent and non-virulent genes, enabling a robust foundation for feature extraction and model training. We employed preprocessing, characterization and feature extraction techniques on primary nucleotide/amino acid sequences and selected the optimal more for model training. The feature set was constructed using sequence-based descriptors (e.g., k-mers and One-hot encoding), and functional annotations based on database prediction. The ML models compared are logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, neural networks among others. The results of this work show some differences in accuracy between the algorithms, these differences allow us to identify different aspects that represent unique opportunities for a more precise and efficient characterization and identification of VF and AMR. This comparative analysis underscores the value of integrating machine learning techniques in predicting S. pyogenes virulence and AMR, offering potential pathways for more effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Future work will focus on incorporating additional omics data, such as transcriptomics, and exploring advanced deep learning models to further enhance predictive capabilities.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, streptococcus pyogenes, virulence factors., machine learning

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Authors: Anthony Schmiedeler

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Reliable measurements for body esteem and time perspective have been constructed to acquire additional knowledge into these two distinct and personal domains of individuals. The Body Esteem Scale (BES) assesses the multidimensional body self-esteems of males and females and produces a particular score. A higher BES score indicates an individual has strong positive feelings relating to particular aspects of the individual’s body. The Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI) measures individuals’ time perspectives and identifies their dominant time perspective profiles. Higher scores in a time perspective profile, such as Past Positive (i.e., nostalgically remembering the past), suggest an individuals’ inclination toward that specific way of orienting oneself with respect to time. Both scales rely on measurements that are similarly grounded in personality traits and reveal valuable insight into individuals’ personalities. Studying the two scales could provide insight into a possible relationship and allow for a better comprehension and more nuanced understanding of the utilities of the instruments. In a completed study, 69 adults completed both the ZTPI and BES. Analyses show that adult females’ higher BES scores positively correlate with higher scores of the Past Positive and Present Hedonistic time perspective profiles of the ZTPI. Male participants also had higher overall BES scores positively correlate with the Present Hedonistic profile in addition to the Positive Future time perspective profile. The results of this study suggest that individuals with certain body esteem scores have a pattern of corresponding with certain time orientations. These correlations could help in explaining the rationales behind individuals’ varying levels of body esteem. With a foundation for better understanding of body esteem by incorporating these time perspectives, future research could be conducted to develop instruments that more accurately reflect individuals’ body esteem measurements.

Keywords: BES, body esteem, time perspective, ZTPI

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Authors: Manoj Kumar Mahapatra, Arvind Kumar

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Batch adsorption experiments were carried out for the removal of phenol from its aqueous solution using water hyancith activated carbon (WHAC) as an adsorbent. The sorption kinetics were analysed using pseudo-first order kinetics and pseudo-second order model, and it was observed that the sorption data tend to fit very well in pseudo-second order model for the entire sorption time. The experimental data were analyzed by the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models. Equilibrium data fitted well to the Freundlich model with a maximum biosorption capacity of 31.45 mg/g estimated using Langmuir model. The adsorption intensity 3.7975 represents a favorable adsorption condition.

Keywords: adsorption, isotherm, kinetics, phenol

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Authors: Gao Fangting

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Ozone acts as an atmospheric shield, protecting organisms from ultraviolet radiation by absorbing it. Currently, a large amount of international environmental epidemiology has confirmed that short- and long-term exposure to ozone has significant effects on population health. Near-surface ozone, as a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere, not only negatively affects the production activities of living organisms but also damages ecosystems and affects climate change to some extent. In this paper, using the hour-by-hour ozone observations given by ground meteorological stations in four cities, namely Beijing, Kunming, Xining, and Guangzhou, from 2015 to 2017, the number of days of exceedance and the long-term change characteristics of ozone are analyzed by using the time series analysis method. On this basis, the effects of changes in meteorological conditions on ozone concentration were discussed in conjunction with the same period of meteorological data, and the similarities and differences of near-surface ozone in different cities were comparatively analyzed to establish a relevant quantitative model of near-surface ozone. This study found that ozone concentrations were highest during the summer months of the year, that ozone concentrations were strongly correlated with meteorological conditions, and that none of the four cities had ozone concentrations that reached the threshold for causing disease.

Keywords: ozone, meteorological conditions, pollution, health

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: P. Brunne, K. Ciechowska, K. Gajc, K. Gawin, M. Gawin, M. Kania, J. Kindracki, Z. Kusznierewicz, D. Pączkowska, F. Perczyński, K. Pilarski, D. Rafało, E. Ryszawa, M. Sobiecki, I. Uwarowa

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Big amount of space debris constitutes nowadays a real thread for operating space crafts; therefore the main purpose of PW-Sat2’ team was to create a system that could help cleanse the Earth’s orbit after each small satellites’ mission. After 4 years of development, the motorless, low energy consumption and low weight system has been created. During series of tests, the system has shown high reliable efficiency. The PW-Sat2’s deorbit system is a square-shaped sail which covers an area of 4m². The sail surface is made of 6 μm aluminized Mylar film which is stretched across 4 diagonally placed arms, each consisting of two C-shaped flat springs and enveloped in Mylar sleeves. The sail is coiled using a special, custom designed folding stand that provides automation and repeatability of the sail unwinding tests and placed in a container with inner diameter of 85 mm. In the final configuration the deorbit system weights ca. 600 g and occupies 0.6U (in accordance with CubeSat standard). The sail’s releasing system requires minimal amount of power based on thermal knife that burns out the Dyneema wire, which holds the system before deployment. The Sail is being pushed out of the container within a safe distance (20 cm away) from the satellite. The energy for the deployment is completely assured by coiled C-shaped flat springs, which during the release, unfold the sail surface. To avoid dynamic effects on the satellite’s structure, there is the rotational link between the sail and satellite’s main body. To obtain complete knowledge about complex dynamics of the deployment, a number of experiments have been performed in varied environments. The numerical model of the dynamics of the Sail’s deployment has been built and is still under continuous development. Currently, the integration of the flight model and Deorbit Sail is performed. The launch is scheduled for February 2018. At the same time, in cooperation with United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, sail models and requested facilities are being prepared for the sail deployment experiment under micro-gravity and low pressure conditions at Bremen Drop Tower, Germany. Results of those tests will provide an ultimate and wide knowledge about deployment in space environment to which system will be exposed during its mission. Outcomes of the numerical model and tests will be compared afterwards and will help the team in building a reliable and correct model of a very complex phenomenon of deployment of 4 c-shaped flat springs with surface attached. The verified model could be used inter alia to investigate if the PW-Sat2’s sail is scalable and how far is it possible to go with enlarging when creating systems for bigger satellites.

Keywords: cubesat, deorbitation, sail, space, debris

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Authors: Jasper Kevin C. Dionisio, Denise Mae M. Unsay

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In a manufacturing firm, controlling the process ensures that optimum efficiency, productivity, and quality in an organization are achieved. An operation with no standardized procedure yields a poor productivity, inefficiency, and an out of control process. This study focuses on controlling the small intestine processing of a chicken dressing plant through the use of Statistical Process Control (SPC). Since the operation does not employ a standard procedure and does not have an established standard time, the process through the assessment of the observed time of the overall operation of small intestine processing, through the use of X-Bar R Control Chart, is found to be out of control. In the solution of this problem, the researchers conduct a motion and time study aiming to establish a standard procedure for the operation. The normal operator was picked through the use of Westinghouse Rating System. Instead of utilizing the traditional motion and time study, the researchers used the X-Bar R Control Chart in determining the process average of the process that is used for establishing the standard time. The observed time of the normal operator was noted and plotted to the X-Bar R Control Chart. Out of control points that are due to assignable cause were removed and the process average, or the average time the normal operator conducted the process, which was already in control and free form any outliers, was obtained. The process average was then used in determining the standard time of small intestine processing. As a recommendation, the researchers suggest the implementation of the standard time established which is with consonance to the standard procedure which was adopted from the normal operator. With that recommendation, the whole operation will induce a 45.54 % increase in their productivity.

Keywords: motion and time study, process controlling, statistical process control, X-Bar R Control chart

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Authors: Weikang Gong, Chunhua Li

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Dynamics plays an essential role in function exertion of proteins. Elastic network model (ENM), a harmonic potential-based and cost-effective computational method, is a valuable and efficient tool for characterizing the intrinsic dynamical properties encoded in biomacromolecule structures and has been widely used to detect the large-amplitude collective motions of proteins. Gaussian network model (GNM) and anisotropic network model (ANM) are the two often-used ENM models. In recent years, many ENM variants have been proposed. Here, we propose a small but effective modification (denoted as modified mENM) to the multiscale ENM (mENM) where fitting weights of Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes with the least square method (LSM) is modified since it neglects the details of pairwise interactions. Then we perform its comparisons with the original mENM, traditional ENM, and parameter-free ENM (pfENM) on reproducing dynamical properties for the six representative proteins whose molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are available in http://mmb.pcb.ub.es/MoDEL/. In the results, for B-factor prediction, mENM achieves the best performance among the four ENM models. Additionally, it is noted that with the weights of the multiscale Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes modified, interestingly, the modified mGNM/mANM still has a much better performance than the corresponding traditional ENM and pfENM models. As to dynamical cross-correlation map (DCCM) calculation, taking the data obtained from MD trajectories as the standard, mENM performs the worst while the results produced by the modified mENM and pfENM models are close to those from MD trajectories with the latter a little better than the former. Generally, ANMs perform better than the corresponding GNMs except for the mENM. Thus, pfANM and the modified mANM, especially the former, have an excellent performance in dynamical cross-correlation calculation. Compared with GNMs (except for mGNM), the corresponding ANMs can capture quite a number of positive correlations for the residue pairs nearly largest distances apart, which is maybe due to the anisotropy consideration in ANMs. Furtherly, encouragingly the modified mANM displays the best performance in capturing the functional motional modes, followed by pfANM and traditional ANM models, while mANM fails in all the cases. This suggests that the consideration of long-range interactions is critical for ANM models to produce protein functional motions. Based on the analyses, the modified mENM is a promising method in capturing multiple dynamical characteristics encoded in protein structures. This work is helpful for strengthening the understanding of the elastic network model and provides a valuable guide for researchers to utilize the model to explore protein dynamics.

Keywords: elastic network model, ENM, multiscale ENM, molecular dynamics, parameter-free ENM, protein structure

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

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Authors: Han-Wei Shih, Yao-Nan Wang, Ko-Tung Chang, Lung-Ming Fu

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A multi-channel cell growth real-time monitor and evaluation system using charge-coupled device (CCD) sensors with 40X lens integrating a NI LabVIEW image processing program is proposed and demonstrated. The LED light source control of monitor system is utilizing 8051 microprocessor integrated with NI LabVIEW software. In this study, the same concentration RAW264.7 cells growth rate and morphology in four different culture conditions (DMEM, LPS, G1, G2) were demonstrated. The real-time cells growth image was captured and analyzed by NI Vision Assistant every 10 minutes in the incubator. The image binarization technique was applied for calculating cell doubling time and cell division index. The cells doubling time and cells division index of four group with DMEM, LPS, LPS+G1, LPS+G2 are 12.3 hr,10.8 hr,14.0 hr,15.2 hr and 74.20%, 78.63%, 69.53%, 66.49%. The image magnification of multi-channel CCDs cell real-time monitoring system is about 100X~200X which compares with the traditional microscope.

Keywords: charge-coupled device (CCD), RAW264.7, doubling time, division index

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Authors: Aouiche Abdelaziz, Soudani Mouhamed Salah, Aouiche El Moundhe

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The present paper addresses the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) for the identification and control of dynamical systems with some degree of uncertainty. Because ANNs and FISs have an inherent ability to approximate functions and to adapt to changes in input and parameters, they can be used to control systems too complex for linear controllers. In this work, we show how ANNs and FISs can be put in order to form nets that can learn from external data. In sequence, it is presented structures of inputs that can be used along with ANNs and FISs to model non-linear systems. Four systems were used to test the identification and control of the structures proposed. The results show the ANNs and FISs (Back Propagation Algorithm) used were efficient in modeling and controlling the non-linear plants.

Keywords: non-linear systems, fuzzy set Models, neural network, control law

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Jin-Sup Kim, Se-Hwan Choi, Jae-Young Lee

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A 8-bit CMOS capacitor array is designed for using in electrically steerable passive array radiator (ESPAR). The proposed capacitor array shows the fast response time in rising and falling characteristics. Compared to other works in silicon-on-insulator (SOI) or silicon-on-sapphire (SOS) technologies, it shows a comparable tuning range and switching time with low power consumption. Using the 0.18um CMOS, the capacitor array features a tuning range of 1.5 to 12.9 pF at 2.4GHz. Including the 2X4 decoder for control interface, the Chip size is 350um X 145um. Current consumption is about 80 nA at 1.8 V operation.

Keywords: CMOS capacitor array, ESPAR, SOI, SOS, switching time

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Naseem Uddin

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Impinging jets are used in variety of engineering and industrial applications. This paper is based on numerical simulations of heat transfer by turbulent impinging jet with velocity field excitations using different Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations models. Also Detached Eddy Simulations are conducted to investigate the differences in the prediction capabilities of these two simulation approaches. In this paper the excited jet is simulated in non-commercial CFD code OpenFOAM with the goal to understand the influence of dynamics of impinging jet on heat transfer. The jet’s frequencies are altered keeping in view the preferred mode of the jet. The Reynolds number based on mean velocity and diameter is 23,000 and jet’s outlet-to-target wall distance is 2. It is found that heat transfer at the target wall can be influenced by judicious selection of amplitude and frequencies.

Keywords: excitation, impinging jet, natural frequency, turbulence models

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Authors: Zhang Xiaodong, Tang Zixin, Liu Xin

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In order to avoid self-collision of space manipulators during operation process, a real-time detection method is proposed in this paper. The manipulator is fitted into a cylinder enveloping surface, and then the detection algorithm of collision between cylinders is analyzed. The collision model of space manipulator self-links can be detected by using this algorithm in real-time detection during the operation process. To ensure security of the operation, a safety threshold is designed. The simulation and experiment results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for a 7-DOF space manipulator.

Keywords: space manipulator, collision detection, self-collision, the real-time collision detection

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Authors: Ertuğrul Yılmaz

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One of the most important occupational groups in the food chain from farm to fork is a veterinary medicine. This occupational group, which has important duties in the prevention of many zoonotic diseases and in public health, takes place in many critical control points from soil to our kitchen. It has important duties from mycotoxins transmitted from the soil to slaughterhouses or milk processing facilities. Starting from the soil, which constitutes 70% of mycotoxin contamination, up to the TMR made from raw materials obtained from the soil, there are all critical control points from feeding to slaughterhouses and milk production enterprises. We can take the precaution of mycotoxins such as Aflatoxin B1, Ochratoxin, Zearalenone, and Fumonisin, which we encounter on farms while in the field. It has been reported that aflatoxin B1 is a casenerogen and passes into milk in studies. It is likely that many mycotoxins pose significant threats to public health and will turn out to be even more dangerous over time. Even raw material storage and TMR preparation are very important for public health. The danger of fumonisin accumulating in the liver will be understood over time. Zoonotic diseases are also explained with examples. In this study, how important veterinarians are in terms of public health is explained with examples. In the two-year mycotoxin screenings, fumonisin mycotoxin was found to be very high in corn and corn by-products, and it was determined that it accumulated in the liver for a long time and remained cornic in animals. It has been determined that mycotoxins are present in all livestock feeds, poultry feeds, and raw materials, not alone, but in double-triple form. Starting from the end, mycotoxin scans should be carried out from feed to raw materials and from raw materials to soil. In this way, we prevent the transmission of mycotoxins to animals and from animals to humans. Liver protectors such as toxin binders, beta-glucan, mannan oligosaccharides, activated carbon, prebiotics, and silymarin were used in certain proportions in the total mixed ratio, and positive results were obtained. Humidity and temperature controls of raw material silos were made at certain intervals. Necropsy was performed on animals that died as a result of mycotoxicosis, and macroscopic photographs were taken of the organs. We have determined that the mycotoxin screening in experimental animals and the feeds made without detecting the presence and amount of bacterial factors affect the results of the project to be made. For this, a series of precautionary plans have been created, starting from the production processes.

Keywords: mycotoxins, feed safety, processes, public health

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Authors: Beata Patuszynska

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Children are largely absent from Polish social discourse, a fact which is mirrored in urban planning processes. Their absence creates a vicious circle – an unfriendly urban space discourages children from going outside on their own, meaning adults do not see a need to make spaces more friendly for a group, not present. The pandemic and lockdown, with their closed schools and temporary ban on unaccompanied minors on the streets, have only reinforced this. The project – co-writing with children a book concerning their first steps into urban independence - aims at empowering children, enabling them to find their voice when it comes to urban space. The foundation for the book was data collected during research and workshops with children from Warsaw primary schools, aged 7-10 - the age they begin independent travel in the city. The project was carried out with the participation and involvement of children at each creative step. Children were (1) models: the narrator is an 7-year-old boy getting ready for urban independence. He shares his experience as well as the experience of his school friends and his 10-year-old sister, who already travels on her own. Children were (2) teachers: the book is based on authentic children’s stories and experience, along with the author’s findings from research undertaken with children. The material was extended by observations and conclusions made during the pandemic. Children were (3) reviewers: a series of draft chapters from the book underwent review by children during workshops performed in a school. The process demonstrated that all children experience similar pleasures and worries when it comes to interaction with urban space. Furthermore, they also have similar needs that need satisfying. In my article, I will discuss; (1) the advantages of creating together with children; (2) my conclusions on how to work with children in participatory processes; (3) research results: perceptions of urban space by children age 7-10, when they begin their independent travel in the city; the barriers to and pleasures derived from independent urban travel; the influence of the pandemic on children’s feelings and their behaviour in urban spaces.

Keywords: children, urban space, co-creation, participation, human rights

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Authors: Yuanqing Li, Changyi Lei, Zhaopeng Xue, Zhuo Zheng, Yanbo Long

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In agricultural production and breeding, implementing automatic picking robot in orchard farming to reduce human labour and error is challenging. The core function of it is automatic identification based on machine vision. This paper focuses on apple detection and counting in orchards and implements several deep learning methods. Extensive datasets are used and a semi-automatic annotation method is proposed. The proposed deep learning models are in state-of-the-art YOLO family. In view of the essence of the models with various backbones, a multi-dimensional comparison in details is made in terms of counting accuracy, mAP and model memory, laying the foundation for realising automatic precision agriculture.

Keywords: agricultural object detection, deep learning, machine vision, YOLO family

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Authors: Silvija ŠIljeg, Ante ŠIljeg, Ivan Marić

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Measuring housing quality is being done on objective and subjective level using different indicators. During the research 5 urban and housing indicators formed according to 58 variables from different housing, domains were used. The aims of the research were to measure housing quality based on GIS approach and to detect critical points of housing in the example of Croatian coastal Town Zadar. The purposes of GIS in the research are to generate models of housing quality indexes by standardisation and aggregation of variables and to examine accuracy model of housing quality index. Analysis of accuracy has been done on the example of variable referring to educational objects availability. By defining weighted coefficients and using different GIS methods high, middle and low housing quality zones were determined. Obtained results can be of use to town planners, spatial planners and town authorities in the process of generating decisions, guidelines, and spatial interventions.

Keywords: housing quality, GIS, housing quality index, indicators, models of housing quality

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Authors: Hayder Kamil Shanbara, Felicite Ruddock, William Atherton, Nassier A. Nassir

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Cold bitumen emulsion mixture (CBEM) offers a series benefits as compared with hot mix asphalt (HMA); these include environmental factors, energy saving, the resolution of logistical challenges that can characterise hot mix, and the potential to reserve funds. However, this mixture has some problems similar to any bituminous mixtures as it has low early strength, long curing time that needed to obtain the maximum performance, high air voids and considered inferior to HMA. Thus, CBEM has been used in limited applications such as lightly trafficked roads, footways and reinstatements. This laboratory study describes the development of CBEM using ordinary Portland cement (OPC) instead of the traditional mineral filler. Stiffness modulus, moisture damage and temperature sensitivity tests were used to evaluate the mechanical properties of the produced mixtures. The study concluded that there is a substantial improvement in the mechanical properties and moisture damage resistance of CBEMs containing OPC. Also, the produced cement modified CBEM shows a considerable lower thermal sensitivity than the conventional CBEM.

Keywords: cold bitumen emulsion mixture, moisture damage, OPC, stiffness modulus, temperature sensitivity

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Authors: Antonio Pratelli, Lorenzo Brocchini, Reginald Roy Souleyrette

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A rotary is a traffic circle intersection where vehicles entering from branches give priority to circulating flow. Vehicles entering the intersection from converging roads move around the central island and weave out of the circle into their desired exiting branch. This creates merging and diverging conflicts among any entry and its successive exit, i.e., a section. Therefore, rotary capacity models are usually based on the weaving of the different movements in any section of the circle, and the maximum rate of flow value is then related to each weaving section of the rotary. Nevertheless, the single-section capacity value does not lead to the typical performance characteristics of the intersection, such as the entry average delay which is directly linked to its level of service. From another point of view, modern roundabout capacity models are based on the limitation of the flow entering from the single entrance due to the amount of flow circulating in front of the entrance itself. Modern roundabouts capacity models generally lead also to a performance evaluation. This paper aims to incorporate a modern roundabout capacity model into an old rotary capacity method to obtain from the latter the single input capacity and ultimately achieve the related performance indicators. Put simply; the main objective is to calculate the average delay of each single roundabout entrance to apply the most common Highway Capacity Manual, or HCM, criteria. The paper is organized as follows: firstly, the rotary and roundabout capacity models are sketched, and it has made a brief introduction to the model combination technique with some practical instances. The successive section is deserved to summarize the TRRL old rotary capacity model and the most recent HCM-7th modern roundabout capacity model. Then, the two models are combined through an iteration-based algorithm, especially set-up and linked to the concept of roundabout total capacity, i.e., the value reached due to a traffic flow pattern leading to the simultaneous congestion of all roundabout entrances. The solution is the average delay for each entrance of the rotary, by which is estimated its respective level of service. In view of further experimental applications, at this research stage, a collection of existing rotary intersections operating with the priority-to-circle rule has already started, both in the US and in Italy. The rotaries have been selected by direct inspection of aerial photos through a map viewer, namely Google Earth. Each instance has been recorded by location, general urban or rural, and its main geometrical patterns. Finally, conclusion remarks are drawn, and a discussion on some further research developments has opened.

Keywords: mixed methods, old rotary and modern roundabout capacity models, total capacity algorithm, level of service estimation

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Authors: Sixing Chen, Shuai Yang

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Online celebrity business, also known as Internet celebrity business (or Wanghong business in Chinese), is an emerging relational C2C business model, and an alternative to traditional C2C transactional business models. There are already millions of these consumers, and this number is growing. In this model, consumer purchase decisions are driven by recommendations and endorsements in videos posted online by celebrities. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relational constructs within consumer relationships in the Internet celebrity business model and to investigate relationships between the constructs and consumer purchase intention. A questionnaire-based study was conducted with consumers who had an awareness of, or prior purchase experience with online celebrities. The results of exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and multiple regression analysis revealed three valid relational constructs: product experience sharing, lifestyle association, and real-time interaction. This study indicated that these constructs had the direct effect on consumer preference and purchase intention. The findings of this study provide insight into a business model in which online shopping is driven by celebrities. They suggest that online celebrities should pay more attention to product experience sharing, life style association and real-time interaction for managing their product promotions. These are the most salient factors with respect to the relational constructs identified in this study.

Keywords: customer relationship, customer to customer, Internet celebrity, online celebrity, online marketing, purchase intention

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Authors: A. S. Lunev, A. A. Larenkov, O. E. Klementyeva, G. E. Kodina

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Background and aims: 68Ga-citrate is one of prospective radiopharmaceutical for PET-imaging of inflammation and infection. 68Ga-citrate is 67Ga-citrate analogue using since 1970s for SPECT-imaging. There's known rebinding reaction occurs past Ga-citrate injection and gallium (similar iron Fe3+) binds with blood transferrin. Then radiolabeled protein complex is delivered to pathological foci (inflammation/infection sites). But excessive gallium bindings with transferrin are cause of slow blood clearance, long accumulation time in foci (24-72 h) and exception of application possibility of the short-lived gallium-68 (T½ = 68 min). Injection of additional chemical agents (e.g. Fe3+ compounds) competing with radioactive gallium to the blood transferrin joining (blocking of its metal binding capacity) is one of the ways to solve formulated problem. This phenomenon can be used for correction of 68Ga-citrate pharmacokinetics for increasing of the blood clearance and accumulation in foci. The aim of real studying is research of effect of stable Fe-citrate on 68Ga-citrate tissue distribution. Materials and methods: 68Ga-citrate without/with extra injection of stable Fe-citrate (III) was injected nonlinear mice with inflammation models (aseptic soft tissue inflammation, lung infection, osteomyelitis). PET/X-RAY Genisys4 (Sofie Bioscience, USA) was used for non-invasive PET imaging (for 30, 60, 120 min past injection 68Ga-citrate) with subsequent reconstruction of imaging and their analysis (value of clearance, distribution volume). Scanning time is 10 min. Results and conclusions: I. v. injection of stable Fe-citrate blocks the metal-binding capability of transferrin serum and allows decreasing gallium-68 radioactivity in blood significantly and increasing accumulation in inflammation (3-5 time). It allows receiving more informative PET-images of inflammation early (for 30-60 min after injection). Pharmacokinetic parameters prove it. Noted there is no statistically significant difference between 68Ga-citrate accumulation for different inflammation model because PET imaging is indication of pathological processes and is not their identification.

Keywords: 68Ga-citrate, Fe-citrate, PET imaging, mice, inflammation, infection

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Authors: Nkwenti Mbelli Njah

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This research was motivated by a project requested by AXA on the topic of pensions payable under the workers compensation (WC) line of business. There are two types of pensions: the compulsorily recoverable and the not compulsorily recoverable. A pension is compulsorily recoverable for a victim when there is less than 30% of disability and the pension amount per year is less than six times the minimal national salary. The law defines that the mathematical provisions for compulsory recoverable pensions must be calculated by applying the following bases: mortality table TD88/90 and rate of interest 5.25% (maybe with rate of management). To manage pensions which are not compulsorily recoverable is a more complex task because technical bases are not defined by law and much more complex computations are required. In particular, companies have to predict the amount of payments discounted reflecting the mortality effect for all pensioners (this task is monitored monthly in AXA). The purpose of this research was thus to develop a stochastic model for the future mortality of the worker’s compensation pensioners of both the Portuguese market workers and AXA portfolio. Not only is past mortality modeled, also projections about future mortality are made for the general population of Portugal as well as for the two portfolios mentioned earlier. The global model was split in two parts: a stochastic model for population mortality which allows for forecasts, combined with a point estimate from a portfolio mortality model obtained through three different relational models (Cox Proportional, Brass Linear and Workgroup PLT). The one-year death probabilities for ages 0-110 for the period 2013-2113 are obtained for the general population and the portfolios. These probabilities are used to compute different life table functions as well as the not compulsorily recoverable reserves for each of the models required for the pensioners, their spouses and children under 21. The results obtained are compared with the not compulsory recoverable reserves computed using the static mortality table (TD 73/77) that is currently being used by AXA, to see the impact on this reserve if AXA adopted the dynamic tables.

Keywords: compulsorily recoverable, life table functions, relational models, worker’s compensation pensioners

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Authors: Hamda Ajmal, Karen Young, Ruth Melia, John Bogue, Mary O'Sullivan, Jim Duggan, Hannah Wood

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The Covid-19 pandemic led to a range of public health mitigation strategies in order to suppress the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The drastic changes in everyday life due to lockdowns had the potential for a significant negative impact on public mental health, and a key public health goal is to now assess the evidence from available Irish datasets to provide useful insights on this issue. Text-50808 is an online text-based mental health support service, established in Ireland in 2020, and can provide a measure of revealed distress and mental health concerns across the population. The aim of this study is to explore statistical associations between public mental health in Ireland and the Covid-19 pandemic. Uniquely, this study combines two measures of emotional wellbeing in Ireland: (1) weekly text volume at Text-50808, and (2) emotional wellbeing indicators reported by respondents of the Amárach public opinion survey, carried out on behalf of the Department of Health, Ireland. For this analysis, a multivariate graphical exploratory data analysis (EDA) was performed on the Text-50808 dataset dated from 15th June 2020 to 30th June 2021. This was followed by time-series analysis of key mental health indicators including: (1) the percentage of daily/weekly texts at Text-50808 that mention Covid-19 related issues; (2) the weekly percentage of people experiencing anxiety, boredom, enjoyment, happiness, worry, fear and stress in Amárach survey; and Covid-19 related factors: (3) daily new Covid-19 case numbers; (4) daily stringency index capturing the effect of government non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Ireland. The cross-correlation function was applied to measure the relationship between the different time series. EDA of the Text-50808 dataset reveals significant peaks in the volume of texts on days prior to level 3 lockdown and level 5 lockdown in October 2020, and full level 5 lockdown in December 2020. A significantly high positive correlation was observed between the percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues and the percentage of respondents experiencing anxiety, worry and boredom (at a lag of 1 week) in Amárach survey data. There is a significant negative correlation between percentage of texts with Covid-19 related issues and percentage of respondents experiencing happiness in Amárach survey. Daily percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues to have a weak positive correlation with daily new Covid-19 cases in Ireland at a lag of 10 days and with daily stringency index of NPIs in Ireland at a lag of 2 days. The sudden peaks in text volume at Text-50808 immediately prior to new restrictions in Ireland indicate an association between a rise in mental health concerns following the announcement of new restrictions. There is also a high correlation between emotional wellbeing variables in the Amárach dataset and the number of weekly texts at Text-50808, and this confirms that Text-50808 reflects overall public sentiment. This analysis confirms the benefits of the texting service as a community surveillance tool for mental health in the population. This initial EDA will be extended to use multivariate modeling to predict the effect of additional Covid-19 related factors on public mental health in Ireland.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, data analysis, digital health, mental health, public health, digital health

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Authors: Jonathan Gong

Abstract:

Purpose AI-driven solutions are at the forefront of many pathology and medical imaging methods. Using algorithms designed to better the experience of medical professionals within their respective fields, the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis can improve. In particular, X-rays are a fast and relatively inexpensive test that can diagnose diseases. In recent years, X-rays have not been widely used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. The under use of Xrays is mainly due to the low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with pneumonia, another respiratory disease. However, research in this field has expressed a possibility that artificial neural networks can successfully diagnose COVID-19 with high accuracy. Models and Data The dataset used is the COVID-19 Radiography Database. This dataset includes images and masks of chest X-rays under the labels of COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. The classification model developed uses an autoencoder and a pre-trained convolutional neural network (DenseNet201) to provide transfer learning to the model. The model then uses a deep neural network to finalize the feature extraction and predict the diagnosis for the input image. This model was trained on 4035 images and validated on 807 separate images from the ones used for training. The images used to train the classification model include an important feature: the pictures are cropped beforehand to eliminate distractions when training the model. The image segmentation model uses an improved U-Net architecture. This model is used to extract the lung mask from the chest X-ray image. The model is trained on 8577 images and validated on a validation split of 20%. These models are calculated using the external dataset for validation. The models’ accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, IOU, and loss are calculated. Results The classification model achieved an accuracy of 97.65% and a loss of 0.1234 when differentiating COVID19-infected, pneumonia-infected, and normal lung X-rays. The segmentation model achieved an accuracy of 97.31% and an IOU of 0.928. Conclusion The models proposed can detect COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal lungs with high accuracy and derive the lung mask from a chest X-ray with similarly high accuracy. The hope is for these models to elevate the experience of medical professionals and provide insight into the future of the methods used.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, image processing, machine learning

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Authors: S. Tebibel, C. Mechati, S. Messaoudi

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Algeria is currently experiencing the same rate of cancer progression as that registered these last years in the western countries. Colorectal cancer, constituting increasingly a major public health problem, is the most common form of cancer after breast and Neck-womb cancer at the woman and prostate cancer at the man. Our work is based on a retrospective study to determine the cases of colorectal cancer through eastern Algeria. Our goal is to carry out an epidemiological, histological and immune- histochemical study to investigate different techniques for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer and their interests and specific in detecting the disease. The study includes 110 patients (aged between 20 to 87 years) with colorectal cancer where the inclusions and exclusions criteria were established. In our study, colorectal cancer, expresses a male predominance, with a sex ratio of 1, 99 and the most affected age group is between 50 and 59 years. We noted that the colon cancer rate is higher than rectal cancer rate, whose frequencies are respectively 60,91 % and 39,09 %. In the series of colon cancer, the ADK lieberkunien is histological the most represented type, or 85,07 % of all cases. In contrast, the proportion of ADK mucinous (colloid mucous) is only 1,49% only. Well-differentiated ADKS, are very significant in our series, they represent 83,58 % of cases. Adenocarcinoma moderately and poorly differentiated, whose proportions are respectively 2,99 % and 0.05 %. For histological varieties of rectal ADK, we see in our workforce that ADK lieberkunien represent the most common histological form, or 76,74%, while the mucosal colloid is 13,95 %. Research of the mutation on the gene encoding K-ras, a major step in the targeted therapy of colorectal cancers, is underway in our study. Colorectal cancer is the subject of much promising research concern: the evaluation of new therapies (antiangiogenic monoclonal antibodies), the search for predictors of sensitivity to chemotherapy and new prognostic markers using techniques of molecular biology and proteomics.

Keywords: adenocarcinoma, age, colorectal cancer, epidemiology, histological section, sex

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