Search results for: Montecarlo Simulation

Authors: Alia Al Nuaimi, Ayesha Al Aberi, Faiza Al Marzouqi, Shaikha Salem Ali Al Yahyaee, Ala Hussein

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In this paper, a PV micro-storage system for residential applications is proposed. The term micro refers to the size of the PV storage system, which is in the range of few kilo-watts, compared to the grid size (~GWs). Usually, in a typical load profile of a residential unit, two peak demand periods exist: one at morning and the other at evening time. The morning peak can be partly covered by the PV energy directly, while the evening peak cannot be covered by the PV alone. Therefore, an energy storage system that stores solar energy during daytime and use this stored energy when the sun is absent is a must. A complete design procedure including theoretical analysis followed by simulation verification and economic feasibility evaluation is addressed in this paper.

Keywords: battery, energy storage, photovoltaic, peak shaving, smart grid

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Authors: Meriem Mossaddek, El Mehdi Laadissi, El Mehdi Loualid, Chouaib Ennawaoui, Sohaib Bouzaid, Abdelowahed Hajjaji

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An electrochemical system is a subset of mechatronic systems that includes a wide variety of batteries and nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion. Those structures have several non-linear behaviors and uncertainties in their running range. This paper studies an effective technique for modeling Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model with exogenous input (NARX). The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to employ the data collected from the battery testing process. The proposed model is implemented on a Li-Ion battery cell. Simulation of this model in MATLAB shows good accuracy of the proposed model.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, neural network, energy storage, battery model, nonlinear models

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: J. I. Corcoles, J. D. Moya-Rico, A. Molina, J. F. Belmonte, J. A. Almendros-Ibanez

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One of the most common heat exchangers technology in engineering processes is the use of double-pipe heat exchangers (DPHx), mainly in the food industry. To improve the heat transfer performance, several passive geometrical devices can be used, such as the wall corrugation of tubes, which increases the wet perimeter maintaining a constant cross-section area, increasing consequently the convective surface area. It contributes to enhance heat transfer in forced convection, promoting secondary recirculating flows. One of the most extended tools to analyse heat exchangers' efficiency is the use of computational fluid dynamic techniques (CFD), a complementary activity to the experimental studies as well as a previous step for the design of heat exchangers. In this study, a double pipe heat exchanger behaviour with two different inner tubes, smooth and spirally corrugated tube, have been analysed. Hence, experimental analysis and steady 3-D numerical simulations using the commercial code ANSYS Workbench v. 17.0 are carried out to analyse the influence of geometrical parameters for spirally corrugated tubes at turbulent flow. To validate the numerical results, an experimental setup has been used. To heat up or cool down the cold fluid as it passes through the heat exchanger, the installation includes heating and cooling loops served by an electric boiler with a heating capacity of 72 kW and a chiller, with a cooling capacity of 48 kW. Two tests have been carried out for the smooth tube and for the corrugated one. In all the tests, the hot fluid has a constant flowrate of 50 l/min and inlet temperature of 59.5°C. For the cold fluid, the flowrate range from 25 l/min (Test 1) and 30 l/min (Test 2) with an inlet temperature of 22.1°C. The heat exchanger is made of stainless steel, with an external diameter of 35 mm and wall thickness of 1.5 mm. Both inner tubes have an external diameter of 24 mm and 1 mm thickness of stainless steel with a length of 2.8 m. The corrugated tube has a corrugation height (H) of 1.1 mm and helical pitch (P) of 25 mm. It is characterized using three non-dimensional parameters, the ratio of the corrugation shape and the diameter (H/D), the helical pitch (P/D) and the severity index (SI = H²/P x D). The results showed good agreement between the numerical and the experimental results. Hence, the lowest differences were shown for the fluid temperatures. In all the analysed tests and for both analysed tubes, the temperature obtained numerically was slightly higher than the experimental results, with values ranged between 0.1% and 0.7%. Regarding the pressure drop, the maximum differences between the values obtained numerically, and the experimental values were close to 16%. Based on the experimental and the numerical results, for the corrugated tube, it can be highlighted that the temperature difference between the inlet and the outlet of the cold fluid is 42%, higher than the smooth tube.

Keywords: corrugated tube, heat exchanger, heat transfer, numerical simulation

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Authors: Hussein Shaman

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This study introduces an innovative design for an RF phase shifter that can maintain a consistent phase shift across a broad spectrum of frequencies. The proposed design integrates an adaptive control system into a reflective-type phase shifter, typically showing frequency-related variations. Adjusting the DC voltage according to the frequency ensures a more reliable phase shift across the frequency span of operation. In contrast, conventional frequency-dependent reflective-type phase shifters may exhibit significant fluctuations in phase shifts exceeding 60 degrees in the same bandwidth. The proposed phase shifter is configured to deliver a 90-degree operation with an expected deviation of around 15 degrees. The fabrication of the phase shifter and adaptive control circuit has been verified through experimentation, with the measured outcomes aligning with the simulation results.

Keywords: phase shifter, adaptive control, varactors, electronic circuits.

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Authors: Amanuel Berhanu Kesamo

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This paper presents both circuit simulation and hardware implementation of a robot vehicle that can be either controlled manually via Bluetooth with video streaming or navigate autonomously to a target point by avoiding obstacles. In manual mode, the user controls the mobile robot using C# windows form interfaced via Bluetooth. The camera mounted on the robot is used to capture and send the real time video to the user. In autonomous mode, the robot plans the shortest path to the target point while avoiding obstacles along the way. Ultrasonic sensor is used for sensing the obstacle in its environment. An efficient path planning algorithm is implemented to navigate the robot along optimal route.

Keywords: Arduino Uno, autonomous, Bluetooth module, path planning, remote controlled robot, ultra sonic sensor

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Authors: Dana Al-Qattan, Faiza Goodarzi, Heba Al-Resheedan, Kawther Shehab, Shoug Al-Ansari

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This project involves working with different types of forecasting methods and facility planning tools to help the company we have chosen to improve and reduce its inventory, increase its sales, and decrease its wastes and losses. The methods that have been used by the company have shown no improvement in decreasing the annual losses. The research made in the company has shown that no interest has been made in exploring different techniques to help the company. In this report, we introduce several methods and techniques that will help the company make more accurate forecasts and use of the available space efficiently. We expect our approach to reduce costs without affecting the quality of the product, and hence making production more viable.

Keywords: production planning, inventory management, inventory control, simulation, facility planning and design, engineering economy and costs

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Authors: H. Y. Jung, Ju H. Park, S. M. Lee

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A sampled-data controller is presented for solid oxide fuel cell systems which is expressed by a sector bounded nonlinear model. The sector bounded nonlinear systems, which have a feedback connection with a linear dynamical system and nonlinearity satisfying certain sector type constraints. Also, the sampled-data control scheme is very useful since it is possible to handle digital controller and increasing research efforts have been devoted to sampled-data control systems with the development of modern high-speed computers. The proposed control law is obtained by solving a convex problem satisfying several linear matrix inequalities. Simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed design method.

Keywords: sampled-data control, fuel cell, linear matrix inequalities, nonlinear control

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung

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This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.

Keywords: weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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Authors: Karima Chergui, Hichem Amrani, Hammoudi Mazouz, Fatiha Mezaache

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Cemented femoral resurfacings have experienced a revival for younger and more active patients. Future developments have shown that the uncemented version eliminates failures related to cementing implants. A three-dimensional finite element method (FEM) simulation was carried out in order to exploit a new resurfacing prothesis design named MARMEL, proposed by a recent study with Co–Cr–Mo material, for comparing a hip uncemented resurfacing with a novel carbon fiber/polyamide 12 (CF/PA12) composite to other hip resurfacing implants with various bio materials. From FE analysis, the von Mises stress range for the Composite hip resurfacing was much lower than that in the other hip resurfacing implants used in this comparison. These outcomes showed that the biomimetic hip resurfacing had the potential to reduce stress shielding and prevent from bone fracture compared to conventional hip resurfacing implants.

Keywords: biomechanics, carbon–fibre polyamide 12, finite element analysis, hip resurfacing

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi

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This study aims to evaluate the effective size and hysteresis characteristics of Circular Hollow Steel (CHS) damper. CHS damper is among steel dampers which are used widely for seismic energy dissipation because they are easy to install, maintain and are low cost. CHS damper dissipates seismic energy through metallic deformation due to the geometrical elasticity of circular shape and fatigue resistance around connection part. After calculating the effective size, which is found to be height to diameter ratio of √ ("3”), nonlinear FE analyses were conducted to evaluate the hysteresis characteristics. To verify the analysis simulation quasi static loading was carried out and the result was compared and satisfactory result was obtained.

Keywords: SS400 steel, circular hollow steel damper, effective size, quasi static loading, FE analysis

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Authors: Vladislav A. Nazukin, Valery G. Avgustinovich, Vakhtang V. Tsatiashvili

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The most important part of modern lean low NOx combustors is a premixer where swirlers are often used for intensification of mixing processes and further formation of required flow pattern in combustor liner. Swirling flow leads to formation of complex eddy structures causing flow perturbations. It is able to cause combustion instability. Therefore, at design phase, it is necessary to pay great attention to aerodynamics of premixers. Analysis based on unsteady CFD modeling of swirling flow in production combustor swirler showed presence of large number of different eddy structures that can be conditionally divided into three types relative to its location of origin and a propagation path. Further, features of each eddy type were subsequently defined. Comparison of calculated and experimental pressure fluctuations spectrums verified correctness of computations.

Keywords: DES simulation, swirler, vortical structures, combustion chamber

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Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: M. Suresh Kumar, K. Ramani

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This paper proposed the Multi-Carrier Pulse Width Modulation for the minimization of Total Harmonic Distortion in Cascaded H-Bridge Multi-Level Inverter. Multicarrier Pulse Width Modulation method uses Alternate Position of Disposition scheme to determine the appropriate switching angle to Multi-Level Inverter. In this paper simulation results shows that the validation of Multi-Carrier Pulse Width Modulation method does capably eliminate a great number of precise harmonics and minimize the Total Harmonic Distortion value in output voltage waveform.

Keywords: alternate position, fast fourier analysis, multi-carrier pulse width modulation, multi-level inverter, total harmonic distortion

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Authors: C. C. Lv, Y. L. Sun, D. W. Zuo

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Cemented carbide balls are usually implemented in industry under the environment of high speed, high temperature, corrosiveness and strong collisions. However, its application is limited due to high fabrication cost, processing efficiency and quality. A novel eccentric lapping method with two rotatable lapping plates was proposed in this paper. A mathematical model was constructed to analyze the influence of each design parameter on this lapping method. To validate this new lapping method, an orthogonal experiment was conducted with cemented carbide balls (YG6). The simulation model was verified and the optimal lapping parameters were derived. The results show that the surface roundness of the balls reaches to 0.65um from 2um in 1 hour using this lapping method. So, using this novel lapping method, it can effectively improve the machining precision and efficiency of cemented carbide balls.

Keywords: cemented carbide balls, eccentric lapping, high precision, lapping tracks, V-groove

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Authors: Andrew Randles, Ilker Ocak, Cheam Daw Don, Navab Singh, Alex Gu

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Nine Degrees of Freedom (9 DOF) systems are already in development in many areas. In this paper, an integrated pressure sensor is proposed that will make use of an already existing monolithic 9 DOF inertial MEMS platform. Capacitive pressure sensors can suffer from limited sensitivity for a given size of membrane. This novel pressure sensor design increases the sensitivity by over 5 times compared to a traditional array of square diaphragms while still fitting within a 2 mm x 2 mm chip and maintaining a fixed static capacitance. The improved design uses one large diaphragm supported by pillars with fixed electrodes placed above the areas of maximum deflection. The design optimization increases the sensitivity from 0.22 fF/kPa to 1.16 fF/kPa. Temperature sensitivity was also examined through simulation.

Keywords: capacitive pressure sensor, 9 DOF, 10 DOF, sensor, capacitive, inertial measurement unit, IMU, inertial navigation system, INS

Procedia PDF Downloads 547

Authors: A. Mohammadi, S. Asghari, M. Aien, M. Rashidinejad

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After emergent of alternative current networks and their popularity, asynchronous motors became more widespread than other kinds of industrial motors. In order to control and run these motors efficiently, an accurate estimation of motor parameters is needed. There are different methods to obtain these parameters such as rotor locked test, no load test, DC test, analytical methods, and so on. The most common drawback of these methods is their inaccuracy in estimation of some motor parameters. In order to remove this concern, a novel method for parameter estimation of induction motors using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed method, transient state of motor is used for parameter estimation. Comparison of the simulation results purtuined to the PSO algorithm with other available methods justifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: induction motor, motor parameter estimation, PSO algorithm, analytical method

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Authors: Ashima Rai

Abstract:

CATV transmission systems have altered from old cable based one-way analog video transmission to two ways hybrid fiber transmission. The use of optical fiber reduces the RF amplifiers in the transmission, high transmission power or lower fiber transmission losses are required to increase system capability. This paper evaluates and compares Distributed Feedback (DFB) laser and Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) for CATV transmission. The simulation results exhibit the better performer among both lasers taking into consideration the parameters chosen for evaluation.

Keywords: Distributed Feedback (DFB), Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL), Community Access Television (CATV), Composite Second Order (CSO), Composite Triple Beat (CTB), RF

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Authors: Asowata Osamede, Trudy Sutherland

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The purpose of this paper is to assess the available power from a Renewable Energy Source (off-grid photovoltaic (PV) panel) in the Southern Hemisphere using anisotropic model. Direct solar radiation is the driving force in photovoltaics. In a basic PV panels in the Southern Hemisphere, Power conversion is eminent, and this is achieved by the PV cells converting solar energy into electrical energy. In this research, the results was determined for a 6 month period from September 2022 through February 2023. Preliminary results, which include Normal Probability plot, data analysis - R2 value, effective conversion-time per week and work-time per day, indicate a favorably comparison between the empirical results and the simulation results.

Keywords: power-conversion, mathematical model, PV panels, DC-DC converters, direct solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Kuen-Ming Shu, Cheng-Yu Chen

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A vibrating-fork sensor can measure the level height of solids and liquids and operates according to the principle that vibrations created by piezoelectric ceramics are transmitted to the vibrating fork, which produces resonance. When the vibrating fork touches an object, its resonance frequency changes and produces a signal that returns to a controller for immediate adjustment, so as to effectively monitor raw material loading. The design of the vibrating fork in a vibrating-fork material sensor is crucial. In this paper, ANSYS finite element analysis software is used to perform modal analysis on the vibrations of the vibrating fork. In addition, to design and produce a superior vibrating fork, the dimensions and welding shape of the vibrating fork are compared in a simulation performed using the Taguchi method.

Keywords: vibrating fork, piezoelectric ceramics, sound wave, ANSYS, Taguchi method, modal analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Di Han, Lingfeng Li, Peixue Zhang, Yuzhuo Zhang

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Since natural gas extracted from the wellhead of a gas well, after passing through the throttle valve, causes a rapid decrease in temperature along with a decrease in pressure, which creates conditions for hydrate generation. In order to solve the problem of hydrate generation in the process of wellhead gathering, effective measures should be taken to prevent hydrate generation. In this paper, we firstly introduce the principle of natural gas throttling temperature drop and the theoretical basis of hydrate inhibitor injection calculation, and then use HYSYS software to simulate and calculate the three processes and determine the key process parameters. The hydrate control process applicable to the skid design of natural gas wellhead gathering skids was determined by comparing the hydrate control effect, energy consumption of key equipment and process adaptability.

Keywords: natural gas, hydrate control, skid design, HYSYS

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Authors: O. Hassoon, M. Tarfoui, A. El Malk

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Fiber Bragg optic sensor embedded in composite material to detect and monitor the damage which is occur in composite structure. In this paper we deal with the mode-Ι delamination to determine the resistance of material to crack propagation, and use the coupling mode theory and T-matrix method to simulating the FBGs spectrum for both uniform and non-uniform strain distribution. The double cantilever beam test which is modeling in FEM to determine the Longitudinal strain, there are two models which are used, the first is the global half model, and the second the sub-model to represent the FBGs with refine mesh. This method can simulate the damage in the composite structure and converting the strain to wavelength shifting of the FBG spectrum.

Keywords: fiber bragg grating, delamination detection, DCB, FBG spectrum, structure health monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of cancer growth under the influence of radiation therapy. The effect of this type of therapy is considered as an additional equation of discussed model. Numerical simulations show that delay, which is added to ordinary differential equations and represent time needed for transformation from one type of cells to the other one, affects the behavior of the system. The validation and verification of proposed model is based on medical data. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. The model is able to reconstruct dynamics of treatment of cancer and may be used to determine the most effective treatment regimen based on the study of the behavior of individual treatment protocols.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, ordinary differential equations, radiation therapy

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population

Keywords: backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability

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Authors: Chandan Hegde, K. Ashwini

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Commonsense reasoning is the simulation of human ability to make decisions during the situations that we encounter every day. It has been several decades since the introduction of this subfield of artificial intelligence, but it has barely made some significant progress. The modern computing aids also have remained impotent in this regard due to the absence of a strong methodology towards commonsense reasoning development. Among several accountable reasons for the lack of progress, drawing inference out of commonsense knowledge-base stands out. This review paper emphasizes on a detailed analysis of representation of reasoning uncertainties and feasible prospects of programming aids for drawing inferences. Also, the difficulties in deducing and systematizing commonsense reasoning and the substantial progress made in reasoning that influences the study have been discussed. Additionally, the paper discusses the possible impacts of an effective inference technique in commonsense reasoning.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, commonsense reasoning, knowledge base, uncertainty in reasoning

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Authors: Vedat Senol, Gursoy Turan, Anders Helmersson, Vortechz Andersson

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In developing a mathematical model of a real structure, the simulation results of the model may not match the real structural response. This is a general problem that arises during dynamic motion of the structure, which may be modeled by means of parameter variations in the stiffness, damping, and mass matrices. These changes in parameters need to be estimated, and the mathematical model is updated to obtain higher control performances and robustness. In this study, a linear fractional transformation (LFT) is utilized for uncertainty modeling. Further, a general approach to the design of an H∞ control of a magneto-rheological damper (MRD) for vibration reduction in a building with mass, damping, and stiffness uncertainties is presented.

Keywords: uncertainty modeling, structural control, MR Damper, H∞, robust control

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Authors: Labane Chrif

Abstract:

A nonlinear approach to the automatic pitch attitude control problem for aircraft transportation is presented. A nonlinear model describing the longitudinal equations of motion in strict feedback form is derived. Backstepping is utilized for the construction of a globally stabilizing controller with a number of free design parameters. The controller is evaluated using the aircraft transportation. The adaptation scheme proposed allowed us to design an explicit controller with a minimal knowledge of the aircraft aerodynamics. Finally, the simulation results will show that backstepping controller have better dynamic performance, simpler design, higher precision, easier implement, etc. At the same time, the control effect will be significantly improved. In addition, backstepping control is superior in short transition, good stability, anti-disturbance and good control.

Keywords: nonlinear control, backstepping, aircraft control, Lyapunov function, longitudinal model

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Authors: Qudratullah Muradi

Abstract:

Geothermal energy is a renewable energy source that can be found in abundance on our planet. Only a small fraction of it is currently converted to electrical power, though in recent years installed geothermal capacity has increased considerably all over the world. In this paper, we assumed a model for designing of Enhanced Geothermal System, EGS. We used computer modeling group, CMG reservoir simulation software to create the typical Hot Dry Rock, HDR reservoir. In this research two wells, one injection of cold water and one production of hot water are included in the model. There are some hydraulic fractures created by the mentioned software. And cold water is injected in order to produce energy from the reservoir. The result of injecting cold water to the reservoir and extracting geothermal energy is defined by some graphs at the end of this research. The production of energy is quantified in a period of 10 years.

Keywords: geothermal energy, EGS, HDR, hydraulic fracturing

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Authors: Hasan Jumaah Mrayeh, Fue-Sang Lien

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ANSYS Fluent will be used to simulate Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for an efficient lens and nozzle design which will be explained in this paper. We have designed and characterized an aerodynamic lens and a divergent nozzle for focusing flow that transmits sub 25 nm particles through the aerodynamic lens. The design of the lens and nozzle has been improved using CFD for particle trajectories. We obtained a case for calculating nanoparticles (25 nm) flowing through the aerodynamic lens and divergent nozzle. Nanoparticles are transported by air, which is pumped into the aerodynamic lens through the nozzle at 1 atmospheric pressure. We have also developed a computational methodology that can determine the exact focus characteristics of aerodynamic lens systems. Particle trajectories were traced using the Lagrange approach. The simulation shows the ability of the aerodynamic lens to focus on 25 nm particles after using a divergent nozzle.

Keywords: aerodynamic lens, divergent nozzle, ANSYS Fluent, Lagrange approach

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Authors: Nejoud Alostad, Anup Bora, Prashant Dhote

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has been producing from its major reservoirs that are well defined and highly productive and of superior reservoir quality. These reservoirs are maturing and priority is shifting towards difficult reservoir to meet future production requirements. This paper discusses the results of the detailed integrated study for one of the satellite complex field discovered in the early 1960s. Following acquisition of new 3D seismic data in 1998 and re-processing work in the year 2006, an integrated G&G study was undertaken to review Lower Cretaceous prospectivity of this reservoir. Nine wells have been drilled in the area, till date with only three wells showing hydrocarbons in two formations. The average oil density is around 300API (American Petroleum Institute), and average porosity and water saturation of the reservoir is about 23% and 26%, respectively. The area is dissected by a number of NW-SE trending faults. Structurally, the area consists of horsts and grabens bounded by these faults and hence compartmentalized. The Wara/Burgan formation consists of discrete, dirty sands with clean channel sand complexes. There is a dramatic change in Upper Wara distributary channel facies, and reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan section varies with change of facies over the area. So predicting reservoir facies and its quality out of sparse well data is a major challenge for delineating the prospective area. To characterize the reservoir of Wara/Burgan formation, an integrated workflow involving seismic, well, petro-physical, reservoir and production engineering data has been used. Porosity and water saturation models are prepared and analyzed to predict reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan 3rd sand upper reservoirs. Subsequently, boundary conditions are defined for reservoir and non-reservoir facies by integrating facies, porosity and water saturation. Based on the detailed analyses of volumetric parameters, potential volumes of stock-tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) and gas initially in place (GIIP) were documented after running several probablistic sensitivity analysis using Montecalro simulation method. Sensitivity analysis on probabilistic models of reservoir horizons, petro-physical properties, and oil-water contacts and their effect on reserve clearly shows some alteration in the reservoir geometry. All these parameters have significant effect on the oil in place. This study has helped to identify uncertainty and risks of this prospect particularly and company is planning to develop this area with drilling of new wells.

Keywords: original oil-in-place, sensitivity, uncertainty, sandstone, reservoir modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 197