Search results for: stochastic preferences

Authors: Abderrahim Elmoataz

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More and more contemporary applications involve data in the form of functions defined on irregular and topologically complicated domains (images, meshs, points clouds, networks, etc). Such data are not organized as familiar digital signals and images sampled on regular lattices. However, they can be conveniently represented as graphs where each vertex represents measured data and each edge represents a relationship (connectivity or certain affinities or interaction) between two vertices. Processing and analyzing these types of data is a major challenge for both image and machine learning communities. Hence, it is very important to transfer to graphs and networks many of the mathematical tools which were initially developed on usual Euclidean spaces and proven to be efficient for many inverse problems and applications dealing with usual image and signal domains. Historically, the main tools for the study of graphs or networks come from combinatorial and graph theory. In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the investigation of one of the major mathematical tools for signal and image analysis, which are Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) variational methods on graphs. The normalized p-laplacian operator has been recently introduced to model a stochastic game called tug-of-war-game with noise. Part interest of this class of operators arises from the fact that it includes, as particular case, the infinity Laplacian, the mean curvature operator and the traditionnal Laplacian operators which was extensiveley used to models and to solve problems in image processing. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and to study a new class of normalized p-Laplacian on graphs. The introduction is based on the extension of p-harmonious function introduced in as discrete approximation for both infinity Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations. Finally, we propose to use these operators as a framework for solving many inverse problems in image processing.

Keywords: normalized p-laplacian, image processing, stochastic game, inverse problems

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Authors: Olha Mostova, Maciej Stolarski, Gerald Matthews

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The present paper explores and tests Gary Chapman’s claims that (1) people vary in the ways they prefer to receive and express affection and (2) romantic partners, who communicate their feelings correspondingly to their partner’s preferences, experience greater relationship quality. The author proposes five distinct preferences for and tendencies to express love, including acts of service, physical touch, words of affirmation, quality time, and gifts. In the present study, partners (N = 100 romantic, heterosexual couples) completed measures assessing their preferences and behavioral tendencies reflecting 1) how they a) tend to express and b) prefer to receive signs of affection in correspondence to the five proposed categories; 2) relationship satisfaction; 3) sexual satisfaction and 4) empathy, which was expected to be the factor that leads to a better understanding of and responding to the partner’s needs. The degree of the within-couple match was calculated separately for each individual based on the discrepancies between one’s felt (preferred) and their partner’s expressed love language. The joint discrepancy indicator was a sum of such discrepancies across the five love languages. Conducted analyses provided evidence for significant associations between matching on love languages and both relationship and sexual satisfaction. In particular, people who expressed their affection in the way their partners preferred to receive it experienced greater satisfaction with their relationships and were more sexually satisfied compared to those who met their partner’s needs to a lesser extent. Other results provide some support for mediating effects of certain domains of empathy in the said associations among male but not female participants.

Keywords: affection, empathy, love languages, relationship satisfaction, romantic couples, sexual satisfaction

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Arnold Missiame

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In Ghana, rural dwellers who depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihood constitute about 60% of the country’s population. This shows the critical role and potentials of the agricultural sector in helping to achieve Ghana’s vision 2030. With the current threat of climate change and advancements in technology, agricultural extension is not just about technology transfer and improvements in productivity, but it is also about improving the managerial and technical skills of farmers. In Ghana, the government of Ghana as well as other players in the sector like; non-governmental organizations, NGOs, local and international funding agencies, for decades now, have made capacity-building-investments in smallholder farmers by way of extension services delivery. This study sought to compare the technical efficiency of farmers who have access to agricultural extension and farmers who do not in Ghana. The study employed the stochastic meta-frontier model to analyze household survey data comprising 300 smallholder cassava farmers from the Fanteakwa district of Ghana. The farmers were selected through a two-stage sampling technique where 5 communities were purposively selected in the first stage and then 60 smallholder cassava farmers were randomly selected from each of the 5 communities. Semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data on farmers’ socioeconomic and farm-level characteristics. The results showed that farmers who have access to agricultural extensions services have higher technical efficiencies (TE) and produce much closer to their meta-production frontiers (higher technology gap ratios (TGR) than farmers who do not have access to such extension services. Furthermore, experience in cassava cultivation and formal education significantly improves the technical efficiencies of farmers. The study recommends that the mode and scope of agricultural extension service delivery in the country should be enhanced to ensure that smallholder farmers have easy access to extension agents.

Keywords: agricultural extension, Ghana, smallholder farmers, stochastic meta-frontier model, technical efficiency

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Authors: Kinga Topolska, Agnieszka Filipiak-Florkiewicz, Adam Florkiewicz, Daria Chechelska, Iwona Cieślik, Ewa Cieślik

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Food choice is a complex human behaviour, that is influenced by many interrelating factors. It is important to understand what consumers really want to eat. Nowadays, the growing popularity of frozen desserts is observed. Among them, sorbets are of the special interest. They are made primarily of fruit juice or fruit purée, water and sugar. A questionnaire study was done to evaluate the consumer preferences towards sorbets. A hundred respondents were included in the study. The respondents answered the questions concerning, inter alia, on the favourite taste of sorbets, additional ingredients (pieces of fruits, nuts etc.), the reason for choosing the product and also the opinion about potential purchasing or not the new product. Women, more frequently than men, indicated strawberry sorbet or the product on the basis of citrus fruits as a favourite one. In turn, 14% of men chose the apple taste. Pieces of chocolate were chosen by most of respondents. Men, more often than women, regarded raisins, alcohol and nuts as the most desirable additional ingredients of sorbets. The candied fruits and spices were indicated more frequently by women. Most of respondents indicated the taste as the major reason for sorbet buying. In turn, for 20% women the most important determinant was the care for their figure. It was observed that more than a half of women regarded sorbets as healthier than traditional ice creams. Answering the question: 'If you had the opportunity to try a new sorbet, containing the ingredient with proven healthy properties, would you buy it?', significantly more men than women answered 'yes, because I like novelty'. Meanwhile, for 14% respondents (independently of gender) it would be only a publicity stunt. Knowing what the consumers desire in selecting a product, is a very important information to design and offer them a new one. Sorbets could be an interesting alternative to ice creams.

Keywords: consumer, preferences, sorbets, questionnaire study

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Gohar Rahman, Rabia Saad Ullah

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This research aims to examine the use of discourse markers within the dominion of political speeches, differentiating between genders. The analysis centers on twelve speakers, comprising six males and six females. Speeches selected include commencement, victory, state union addresses, campaigns, and presidential speeches. Halliday and Hasan's cohesion framework, specifically discourse markers, is utilized as a theoretical framework. Data is quantitatively analyzed using AntConc to identify marker frequency. The findings are presented through Excel's tables and graphs, suggesting differences in discourse marker preferences between genders. The findings suggest a divergence in the preferences for discourse markers between males and females. However, asserting that females utilize discourse markers more frequently due to the increased use of filler words, face threat mitigation, and polite speech would be an exaggeration. The disparity in frequency is not substantial, suggesting that males and females exhibit varying language inclinations to some degree.

Keywords: discourse markers, political discourse, gender, speeches, language

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Authors: Huei Jiun Chen, Hui Mei Huan

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Introduction: Pain is an unpleasant experience for hospitalized patients that impacts both their physical and mental well-being. It is important to select appropriate pain assessment tools to ensure effective pain management. Therefore, it is suggested to use Verbal Rating Scale (VRS) instead for better assessment. The Wong-Baker FACES Pain Rating Scale(WBS) is a widely used pain assessment tool in Taiwan to help individuals communicate the intensity of their pain. However, in clinical practice, even when using various assessment tools to evaluate pain, Numeric Rating Scale-11 (NRS-11) is still commonly utilized to quantify the intensity of pain. The correlation between NRS and other pain assessment tools has not been extensively explored in Taiwan. Additionally, the influence of gender and education level on pain assessment among elderly individuals has not been extensively studied in Taiwan. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between pain assessment scales (NRS-11, VRS, WBS) in assessing pain intensity among elderly inpatients. The secondary objective of this study is to examine how gender and education level influence pain assessment among individuals, as well as to explore their preferences regarding pain assessment tools. Method: In this study, a questionnaire survey and purposive sampling were employed to recruit participants from a medical center located in central Taiwan. Participants were requested to assess their pain intensity in the past 24 hours using NRS-11, VRS, and WBS. Additionally, the study investigated their preferences for pain assessment tools. Result: A total of 252 participants were included in this study, with a mean age of 71.1 years (SD=6.2). Of these participants, 135 were male (53.6%), and 44.4% had a primary level or below education. Participants were asked to use NRS-11, VRS, and WBS to assess their current, maximum, and minimum pain intensity experienced in the past 24 hours. The findings indicated a significant correlation (p< .01) among all three pain assessment tools. No significant differences were observed in gender across the three pain assessment scales. For severe pain, there were significant differences in self-rated pain scales among the elderly participants with different education levels (F=3.08, p< .01; X²=17.25, X²=17.21, p< .01), but there were no significant differences observed for mild pain. Regarding preferences for pain assessment tools, 158 participants (62.7%) favored VRS, followed by WBS; gender and education level had no influence on their preferences. Conclusion: Most elderly participants prefer using VRS (Verbal Rating Scale) to self-reported their pain. The reason for this preference may be attributed to the verbal nature of VRS, as it is simple and easy to understand. Furthermore, it could be associated with the level of education among the elderly participants. The pain assessment using VRS demonstrated a significant correlation with NRS-11 and WBS, and gender was not found to have any influence on these assessment. Further research is needed to explore the effect of different education levels on self-reported pain intensity among elderly people in Taiwan.

Keywords: pain assessment, elderly, gender, education

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Authors: Stefanie Jeanette Huber

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This paper explores the relevance and implications of preferences for housing services on house price fluctuations through the lens of an overlapping generation’s model. The model implies that an economy whose agents have lower preferences for housing services is characterized with lower expenditure shares on housing services and will tend to experience more frequent and more volatile housing bubbles. These model predictions are tested empirically in the companion paper Housing Booms and Busts - Convergences and Divergences across OECD countries. Between 1970 - 2013, countries who spend less on housing services as a share of total income experienced significantly more housing cycles and the associated housing boom-bust cycles were more violent. Finally, the model is used to study the impact of rental subsidies and help-to-buy schemes on rational housing bubbles. Rental subsidies are found to contribute to the control of housing bubbles, whereas help-to- buy scheme makes the economy more bubble-prone.

Keywords: housing bubbles, housing booms and busts, preference for housing services, expenditure shares for housing services, rental and purchase subsidies

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Authors: Nassim Bessaad, Qilian Bao, Zhao Jiangkang

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The fiber optics gyroscope in the strap-down inertial navigation system (FOG-SINS) suffers from precision degradation due to the influence of random errors. In this work, an enhanced Allan variance (AV) stochastic modeling method combined with discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for signal denoising is implemented to estimate the random process in the FOG signal. Furthermore, we devise a measurement-based iterative adaptive Sage-Husa nonlinear filter with augmented states to integrate a star tracker sensor with SINS. The proposed filter adapts the measurement noise covariance matrix based on the available data. Moreover, the enhanced stochastic modeling scheme is invested in tuning the process noise covariance matrix and the augmented state Gauss-Markov process parameters. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed filter is investigated by employing the collected data in laboratory conditions. The result shows the filter's improved accuracy in comparison with the conventional Kalman filter (CKF).

Keywords: inertial navigation, adaptive filtering, star tracker, FOG

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Authors: Maria Belen C. Costa, Liza C. Costa

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Teachers have an important influence on students’ academic achievement. Teachers play a crucial role in educational attainment because they stand in the interface of the transmission of knowledge, values, and skills in the learning process through the instructional strategies they employ in the classroom. The level of achievement of students in school depends on the degree of effectiveness of instructional strategies used by the teacher. Thus, this study was conceptualized and conducted to examine the instructional strategies preferred and used by the Science and Mathematics teachers and the impact of those strategies in their teaching performance and students’ academic achievement in Science and Mathematics. The participants of the study comprised a total enumeration of 61 teachers who were chosen through total enumeration and 610 students who were selected using two-stage random sampling technique. The descriptive correlation design was used in this study with a self-made questionnaire as the main tool in the data gathering procedure. Relationship among variables was tested and analyzed using Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and Wilcoxon Signed Rank statistics. The teacher participants under study mainly belonged to the age group of ‘young’ (35 years and below) and most were females having ‘very much experienced’ (16 years and above) in teaching. Teaching performance was found to be ‘very satisfactory’ while academic achievement in Science and Mathematics was found to be ‘satisfactory’. Demographic profile and teaching performance of teacher participants were found to be ‘not significant’ to their instructional strategy preferences. Results implied that age, sex, level of education and length of service of the teachers does not affect their preference on a particular instructional strategy. However, the teacher participants’ extent of use of the different instructional strategies was found to be ‘significant’ to their teaching performance. The instructional strategies being used by the teachers were found to have a direct effect on their teaching performance. Academic achievement of student participants was found to be ‘significant’ to the teacher participants’ instructional strategy preferences. The preference of the teachers on instructional strategies had a significant effect on the students’ academic performance. On the other hand, teacher participants’ extent of use of instructional strategies was showed to be ‘not significant’ to the academic achievement of students in Science and Mathematics. The instructional strategy being used by the teachers did not affect the level of performance of students in Science and Mathematics. The results of the study revealed that there was a significant difference between the teacher participants’ preference of instructional strategy and the student participants’ instructional strategy preference as well as between teacher participants’ extent of use and student participants’ perceived level of use of the different instructional strategies. Findings found a discrepancy between the teaching strategy preferences of students and strategies implemented by teachers.

Keywords: academic achievement, extent of use, instructional strategy, preferences

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Authors: Wheyming Tina Song, Chi-Hao Hong, Peisyuan Lin

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An important performance measure for stochastic manufacturing networks is the system reliability, defined as the probability that the production output meets or exceeds a specified demand. The system parameters include the capacity of each workstation and numbers of the conforming parts produced in each workstation. We establish that eighteen archival publications, containing twenty-one examples, provide incorrect values of the system reliability. The author recently published the Song Rule, which provides the correct analytical system-reliability value; it is, however, computationally inefficient for large networks. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation (implemented in C and Flexsim) to provide estimates for the above-mentioned twenty-one examples. The simulation estimates are consistent with the analytical solution for small networks but is computationally efficient for large networks. We argue here for three advantages of Monte Carlo simulation: (1) understanding stochastic systems, (2) validating analytical results, and (3) providing estimates even when analytical and numerical approaches are overly expensive in computation. Monte Carlo simulation could have detected the published analysis errors.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, analytical results, leading digit rule, standard error

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Authors: Ali Algryani

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Ellipsis involves the omission of an item or items that can be recovered from the preceding clause. Ellipsis is used as a cohesion marker; it enhances the cohesiveness of a text/discourse as a clause is interpretable only through making reference to an antecedent clause. The present study attempts to investigate the linguistic phenomenon of ellipsis from a translation perspective. It is mainly concerned with how ellipsis is translated from English into Arabic. The study covers different forms of ellipsis, such as noun phrase ellipsis, verb phrase ellipsis, gapping, pseudo-gapping, stripping, and sluicing. The primary aim of the study, apart from discussing the use and function of ellipsis, is to find out how such ellipsis phenomena are dealt with in English-Arabic translation and determine the implications of the translations of elliptical structures into Arabic. The study is based on the analysis of Dhofar University (DU) students' translations of sentences containing different forms of ellipsis. The initial findings of the study indicate that due to differences in syntactic structures and stylistic preferences between English and Arabic, Arabic tends to use lexical repetition in the translation of some elliptical structures, thus achieving a higher level of explicitness. This implies that Arabic tends to prefer lexical repetition to create cohesion more than English does. Furthermore, the study also reveals that the improper translation of ellipsis leads to interpretations different from those understood from the source text. Such mistranslations can be attributed to student translators’ lack of awareness of the use and function of ellipsis as well as the stylistic preferences of both languages. This has pedagogical implications on the teaching and training of translation students at DU. Students' linguistic competence needs to be enhanced through teaching linguistics-related issues with reference to translation and both languages, .i.e. source and target languages and with special emphasis on their use, function and stylistic preferences.

Keywords: cohesion, ellipsis, explicitness, lexical repetition

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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It is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis in view of recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 which brought huge losses of lives and properties. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling and the Subset Simulation algorithm is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface, stochastic simulation, structural reliability tsunami, risk

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Authors: Junjie Peng, Jinbao Chen, Shuai Kong, Danxu Liu

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On the basis of traditional resource allocation strategies, the usage of resources on physical servers in cloud data center is great uncertain. It will cause waste of resources if the assignment of tasks is not enough. On the contrary, it will cause overload if the assignment of tasks is too much. This is especially obvious when the applications are the same type because of its resource preferences. Considering CPU intensive application is one of the most common types of application in the cloud, we studied the optimization strategy for CPU intensive applications on the same server. We used resource preferences to analyze the case that multiple CPU intensive applications run simultaneously, and put forward a model which can predict the execution time for CPU intensive applications which run simultaneously. Based on the prediction model, we proposed the method to select the appropriate number of applications for a machine. Experiments show that the model can predict the execution time accurately for CPU intensive applications. To improve the execution efficiency of applications, we propose a scheduling model based on priority for CPU intensive applications. Extensive experiments verify the validity of the scheduling model.

Keywords: cloud computing, CPU intensive applications, resource optimization, strategy

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Authors: Marjan Heidarian Dehkordi, Hossein Allahyari, Bruce Parker, Reza Talaee-Hassanlouei

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The Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis Priesner (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), is a significant pest of many economically important crops. This study evaluated the functional responses, prey-stage preferences and mutual interference of Amblyseius swirskii Anthias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae) with F. occidentalis as the host under laboratory conditions. The predator species showed no prey stage preference for either prey 1st or 2nd instar. Logistic regression analysis suggested Type II (convex) functional response for the predator species. Consequently, the per capita searching efficiency decreased significantly from 1.2425 to -7.4987 as predator densities increased from 2 to 8. The findings from this study could help select better biological control agents for effective control of F. occidentalis and other pests in vegetable production.

Keywords: biological control, functional responses, mutual interference, prey-stage preferences

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Authors: Rebecca Owusu Coffie, Atakelty Hailu

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Variants of production frontier models have emerged, however, only a limited number of them are applied in empirical research. Hence the effects of these alternative frontier models are not well understood, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we apply recent advances in the production frontier to examine levels of technical efficiency and efficiency drivers. Specifically, we compare the heteroscedastic parametric and the semiparametric stochastic smooth coefficient (SPSC) models. Using rice production data from Ghana, our empirical estimates reveal that alternative specification of efficiency estimators results in either downward or upward bias in the technical efficiency estimates. Methodologically, we find that the SPSC model is more suitable and generates high-efficiency estimates. Within the parametric framework, we find that parameterization of both the mean and variance of the pre-truncated function is the best model. For the drivers of technical efficiency, we observed that longer farm distances increase inefficiency through a reduction in labor productivity. High soil quality, however, increases productivity through increased land productivity.

Keywords: pre-truncated, rice production, smooth coefficient, technical efficiency

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Authors: Hamideh Marefat, Eskandar Samadi

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This study examined the effect of semantics on processing ambiguous sentences containing Relative Clauses (RCs) preceded by a complex Determiner Phrase (DP) by Persian-speaking learners of L2 English with different proficiency and Working Memory Capacities (WMCs). The semantic relationship studied was one between the subject of the main clause and one of the DPs in the complex DP to see if, as predicted by Spreading Activation Model, priming one of the DPs through this semantic manipulation affects the L2ers’ preference. The results of a task using Rapid Serial Visual Processing (time-controlled paradigm) showed that manipulation of the relationship between the subject of the main clause and one of the DPs in the complex DP preceding RC has no effect on the choice of the antecedent; rather, the L2ers' processing is guided by the phrase structure information. Moreover, while proficiency did not have any effect on the participants’ preferences, WMC brought about a difference in their preferences, with a DP1 preference by those with a low WMC. This finding supports the chunking hypothesis and the predicate proximity principle, which is the strategy also used by monolingual Persian speakers.

Keywords: semantics, relative clause processing, ambiguity resolution, proficiency, working memory capacity

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Authors: Nkwenti Mbelli Njah

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This research was motivated by a project requested by AXA on the topic of pensions payable under the workers compensation (WC) line of business. There are two types of pensions: the compulsorily recoverable and the not compulsorily recoverable. A pension is compulsorily recoverable for a victim when there is less than 30% of disability and the pension amount per year is less than six times the minimal national salary. The law defines that the mathematical provisions for compulsory recoverable pensions must be calculated by applying the following bases: mortality table TD88/90 and rate of interest 5.25% (maybe with rate of management). To manage pensions which are not compulsorily recoverable is a more complex task because technical bases are not defined by law and much more complex computations are required. In particular, companies have to predict the amount of payments discounted reflecting the mortality effect for all pensioners (this task is monitored monthly in AXA). The purpose of this research was thus to develop a stochastic model for the future mortality of the worker’s compensation pensioners of both the Portuguese market workers and AXA portfolio. Not only is past mortality modeled, also projections about future mortality are made for the general population of Portugal as well as for the two portfolios mentioned earlier. The global model was split in two parts: a stochastic model for population mortality which allows for forecasts, combined with a point estimate from a portfolio mortality model obtained through three different relational models (Cox Proportional, Brass Linear and Workgroup PLT). The one-year death probabilities for ages 0-110 for the period 2013-2113 are obtained for the general population and the portfolios. These probabilities are used to compute different life table functions as well as the not compulsorily recoverable reserves for each of the models required for the pensioners, their spouses and children under 21. The results obtained are compared with the not compulsory recoverable reserves computed using the static mortality table (TD 73/77) that is currently being used by AXA, to see the impact on this reserve if AXA adopted the dynamic tables.

Keywords: compulsorily recoverable, life table functions, relational models, worker’s compensation pensioners

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Authors: Luis Guilherme Resende Santos, Ido Nevat, Leslie Norford

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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by increased air temperatures in urban areas compared to undeveloped rural surrounding environments. With urbanization and densification, the intensity of UHI increases, bringing negative impacts on livability, health and economy. In order to reduce those effects, it is required to take into consideration design factors when planning future developments. Given design constraints such as population size and availability of area for development, non-trivial decisions regarding the buildings’ dimensions and their spatial distribution are required. We develop a framework for optimization of urban design in order to jointly minimize UHI intensity and buildings’ energy consumption. First, the design constraints are defined according to spatial and population limits in order to establish realistic boundaries that would be applicable in real life decisions. Second, the tools Urban Weather Generator (UWG) and EnergyPlus are used to generate outputs of UHI intensity and total buildings’ energy consumption, respectively. Those outputs are changed based on a set of variable inputs related to urban morphology aspects, such as building height, urban canyon width and population density. Lastly, an optimization problem is cast where the utility function quantifies the performance of each design candidate (e.g. minimizing a linear combination of UHI and energy consumption), and a set of constraints to be met is set. Solving this optimization problem is difficult, since there is no simple analytic form which represents the UWG and EnergyPlus models. We therefore cannot use any direct optimization techniques, but instead, develop an indirect “black box” optimization algorithm. To this end we develop a solution that is based on stochastic optimization method, known as the Cross Entropy method (CEM). The CEM translates the deterministic optimization problem into an associated stochastic optimization problem which is simple to solve analytically. We illustrate our model on a typical residential area in Singapore. Due to fast growth in population and built area and land availability generated by land reclamation, urban planning decisions are of the most importance for the country. Furthermore, the hot and humid climate in the country raises the concern for the impact of UHI. The problem presented is highly relevant to early urban design stages and the objective of such framework is to guide decision makers and assist them to include and evaluate urban microclimate and energy aspects in the process of urban planning.

Keywords: building energy consumption, stochastic optimization, urban design, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Fareena Alladin

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In the Caribbean, issues of food security, health and taste are intricately linked, seen most clearly in the increasing incidence of lifestyle diseases among children coupled with a taste for high calorie and Westernized diets. In order to fully appreciate this link, the role of nutrition environments must be examined. To this end, the present study incorporates tenets of Bourdieu’s social constructivist theory with the Community Nutrition Environment Model. The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between availability of and access to healthy/unhealthy foods within nutrition environments, namely the household and school, and the development of taste preferences for healthy/unhealthy foods among primary school children in a selected educational district in Trinidad and Tobago. A cross-sectional survey of 400 children between the ages of 9 and 11 years was conducted. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS 24. Results indicated that availability of healthy food at home was positively correlated with preference for vegetables, and negatively correlated with preference for salty snacks and fast food. The availability of unhealthy food within the home was found to be negatively correlated with preference for vegetables and positively correlated with preference for salty snacks. Access to unhealthy foods at school had a positive correlation with preference for fast food. These findings highlight the role of the food environment in shaping taste preferences, and point to the need for interrogating the centrality of food security concerns in emerging health concerns of Caribbean countries. Such interrogations are a necessary part of the development of research agendas, and policy formulation and implementation.

Keywords: food security, nutrition environment, taste preference, Trinidad and Tobago

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Authors: Tasanee Satthapong

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The purpose of the study was to determine the relationship between learning style preferences, teaching style preferences, and learning with happiness of college students who were majors in five different academic areas at the Suansunandha Rajabhat University in Thailand. The selected participants were 729 students 1st year-5th year in Faculty of Education from Thai teaching, early childhood education, math and science teaching, and English teaching majors. The research instruments are the Grasha and Riechmann learning and teaching styles survey and the students’ happiness in learning survey, based on learning with happiness theory initiated by the Office of the National Education Commission. The results of this study: 1) The most students’ learning styles were participant style, followed by collaborative style, and independent style 2) Most students’ happiness in learning in all subjects areas were at the moderate level: Early Childhood Education subject had the highest scores, while Math subject was at the least scores. 3) No different of student’s happiness in learning were found between students who has learning styles that match and not match to teachers’ teaching styles.

Keywords: learning style, teaching style, learning with happiness

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Authors: S. H. Liao, J. M. Huang

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The delivery service business model is the final link in logistics for both online-and-offline businesses. The online-and-offline business model focuses on the entire customer purchasing process online and offline, placing greater emphasis on the importance of data to optimize overall retail operations. For the retail industry, it is an important task of information and management to strengthen the collection and investigation of consumers' online and offline purchasing data to better understand customers and then recommend products. This study implements two-stage data mining analytics for clustering and association rules analysis to investigate Taiwanese consumers' (n=2,209) preferences for delivery service. This process clarifies online-and-offline purchasing behaviors and preferences to find knowledge profiles/patterns/rules for cross-channel collaborative recommendations. Finally, theoretical and practical implications for methodology and enterprise are presented.

Keywords: delivery service, online-and-offline purchasing, retail cross-channel, collaborative recommendations, data mining analytics

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

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This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

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Authors: Alex Elentukh

Abstract:

The paper is based on data collected from final exams administered during five years of teaching the graduate course in software engineering. The visualization instrument with four distinct personas has been used to improve the effectiveness of each class. The study offers a plethora of clues toward students' behavioral preferences. Diversity among students (professional background, physical proximity) is too significant to assume a single face of a learner. This is particularly true for a body of online graduate students in computer science. Conclusions of the study (each learner is unique, and each class is unique) are extrapolated to demystify the notion of an 'average software engineer.' An immediate direction for an educator is to ensure a course applies to a wide audience of very different individuals. On the other hand, a student should be clear about his/her abilities and preferences - to follow the most effective learning path.

Keywords: K.3.2 computer and information science education, learner profiling, adaptive learning, software engineering

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Authors: Ozgu Turgut

Abstract:

Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. Although in recent years, the efforts to make the transition to dripping or spring watering systems instead of using surface watering started to pay off. It is also known that this transition is not necessarily translated into an increase in the capacity dedicated to other water consumption channels such as city water or power usage. In order to control and allocate the water resource more purposefully, new watering systems have to be used with monitoring abilities that can limit the usage capacity for each farm. In this study, a decision support model which relies on a bi-objective stochastic linear optimization is proposed, which takes crop yield and price volatility into account. The model generates annual planting plans as well as water usage limits for each farmer in the region while taking the total value (i.e., profit) of the overall harvest. The mathematical model is solved using the L-shaped method optimally. The decision support model can be especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's planting and water incomes and expenses. That is why not only a single optimum but also a set of representative solutions from the Pareto set is generated with the proposed approach.

Keywords: decision support, farming, water, tactical planning, optimization, stochastic, pareto

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Authors: Malgorzata Bartoszewicz, Grzegorz Krzysko

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Chemistry students plan a career path based on their interests, predispositions, and preferences. This study aims to determine what percentage of all chemistry students selected teaching as a career. There is a lack of science teachers (especially physics and chemistry) in Poland, and there is limited research on students' choices and professional preferences. At the Faculty of Chemistry of the Adam Mickiewicz University in the academic year 2019/2020, changes were introduced to the study program resulting from legal regulations and as part of the funds raised from the project "Teacher - competent practitioner, supervisor, expert", No. POWR.03.01.00-00-KN40/18. The aim of the study was to determine how many first-cycle and second-cycle studies students declare the teaching profession as a career. In the case of first-cycle studies students, 9.5% of respondents choose the teaching profession and 9.2% of second-cycle studies students. It was found that the number of students who chose the teacher preparation programme at Faculty of Chemistry of the Adam Mickiewicz University has decreased since 5 years.

Keywords: faculty of chemistry, Adam Mickiewicz University, professional ambitions, students, teacher

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Rahul Wagh, Sunil Shinde

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Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a transformative force in India's transportation sector, offering a sustainable solution to the country's growing energy and environmental challenges. Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, rising pollution levels, and the need for energy security, EVs have gained traction as a viable alternative to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the electric vehicle market in India, focusing particularly on the landscape of 2023. It emphasizes key aspects such as the 2023 scenario of EV adoption, the role of indigenous manufacturers, dominant players shaping the market, and the influence of government policies and initiatives, including the FAME I and II schemes. Furthermore, the paper delves into EV sales data for the fiscal year 2023, offering insights into market trends and consumer preferences. By elucidating the current state of EVs in India, this paper aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the country's transition towards sustainable mobility and its implications for energy, the environment, and the economy.

Keywords: EV adoption 2023, FAME schemes, consumer preferences, market trends

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Authors: Robert L. Fine, Zhiyong Yang, Christy Spivey, Bonnie Boardman, Maureen Courtney

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Importance: Barriers to traditional advance care planning (ACP) and advance directive (AD) creation have limited the promise of ACP/AD for individuals and families, the healthcare team, and society. Reengineering ACP by using a web-based, consumer-driven process has recently been suggested. We report early experience with such a process. Objective: Begin to analyze the potential of the creation and use of ACP/ADs as generated by a consumer-friendly, digital process by 1) assessing the likelihood that consumers would create ACP/ADs without structured intervention by medical or legal professionals, and 2) analyzing the responses to determine if the plans can help doctors better understand a person’s goals, preferences, and priorities for their medical treatments and the naming of healthcare agents. Design: The authors chose 900 users of MyDirectives.com, a digital ACP/AD tool, solely based on their state of residence in order to achieve proportional representation of all 50 states by population size and then reviewed their responses, summarizing these through descriptive statistics including treatment preferences, demographics, and revision of preferences. Setting: General United States population. Participants: The 900 participants had an average age of 50.8 years (SD = 16.6); 84.3% of the men and 91% of the women were in self-reported good health when signing their ADs. Main measures: Preferences regarding the use of life-sustaining treatments, where to spend final days, consulting a supportive and palliative care team, attempted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), autopsy, and organ and tissue donation. Results: Nearly 85% of respondents prefer cessation of life-sustaining treatments during their final days whenever those may be, 76% prefer to spend their final days at home or in a hospice facility, and 94% wanted their future doctors to consult a supportive and palliative care team. 70% would accept attempted CPR in certain limited circumstances. Most respondents would want an autopsy under certain conditions, and 62% would like to donate their organs. Conclusions and relevance: Analysis of early experience with an all-digital web-based ACP/AD platform demonstrates that individuals from a wide range of ages and conditions can engage in an interrogatory process about values, goals, preferences, and priorities for their medical treatments by developing advance directives and easily make changes to the AD created. Online creation, storage, and retrieval of advance directives has the potential to remove barriers to ACP/AD and, thus, to further improve patient-centered end-of-life care.

Keywords: Advance Care Plan, Advance Decisions, Advance Directives, Consumer; Digital, End of Life Care, Goals, Living Wills, Prefences, Universal Advance Directive, Statements

Procedia PDF Downloads 327