Search results for: housing price prediction

Authors: Claudia Valderrama-Ulloa, Cristian Schmitt, Juan Pablo Marchetti, Viviana Bucarey

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Access to adequate housing is a fundamental human right and a crucial factor for health. Housing should be inclusive, accessible, and able to meet the needs of all its inhabitants at every stage of their lives without hindering their health, autonomy, or independence. This article addresses the importance of designing housing for people with disabilities, which varies depending on individual abilities, preferences, and cultural considerations. Based on the components of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, wheelchair users, little people (achondroplasia), children with autism spectrum disorder and Down syndrome were characterized, and six domains of activities related to daily life inside homes were defined. The article describes the main barriers homes present for this group of people. It proposes a list of architectural and design aspects to reduce barriers to housing use. The aspects are divided into three main groups: space management, building services, and supporting facilities. The article emphasizes the importance of consulting professionals and users with experience designing for diverse needs to create inclusive, safe, and supportive housing for people with disabilities.

Keywords: achondroplasia, autism spectrum disorder, disability, down syndrome, wheelchair user

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: S. M. Amin Hosseini, Oriol Pons, Albert de la Fuente

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After natural disasters, displaced people (DP) require important numbers of housing units, which have to be erected quickly due to emergency pressures. These tight timeframes can cause the multiplication of the environmental construction impacts. These negative impacts worsen the already high energy consumption and pollution caused by the building sector. Indeed, post-disaster housing, which is often carried out without pre-planning, usually causes high negative environmental impacts, besides other economic and social impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a suitable strategy to deal with this problem which also takes into account the instability of its causes, like changing ratio between rural and urban population. To this end, this study aims to present a model that assists decision-makers to choose the most suitable building technology for post-disaster housing units. This model focuses on the alternatives sustainability and fulfillment of the stakeholders’ satisfactions. Four building technologies have been analyzed to determine the most sustainability technology and to validate the presented model. In 2003, Bam earthquake DP had their temporary housing units (THUs) built using these four technologies: autoclaved aerated concrete blocks (AAC), concrete masonry unit (CMU), pressed reeds panel (PR), and 3D sandwich panel (3D). The results of this analysis confirm that PR and CMU obtain the highest sustainability indexes. However, the second life scenario of THUs could have considerable impacts on the results.

Keywords: sustainability, post-disaster temporary housing, integrated value model for sustainability assessment, life cycle assessment

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Authors: Amao Funmilayo Lanrewaju

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The study examined the socio-economic characteristics of the residents in selected urban fringes of Ibadan; identified and examined the housing and neighbourhood characteristics and evaluated housing quality in the study area. It analysed the relationship between the socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics as well as housing quality in the study area. This was with a view to providing information that would enhance the housing quality in urban fringes of Ibadan. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. A survey of eleven purposively selected communities from Oluyole and Egbeda local government areas in the urban fringes was conducted through a questionnaire administration and expert rating by five independent assessors (Qualified Architects) using penalty scoring within similar time-frames. The study employed a random sampling method to select a sample size of 480 houses representing 5% of the sampling frame of 9600 houses. Respondent in the first house was selected randomly and subsequently every 20th house in the streets involved was systematically selected for questionnaire administration, usually a household-head per building. The structured questionnaire elicited information on socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics, factors affecting housing quality and housing quality in the study area. Secondary data obtained for the study included the land-use plan of Ibadan from previous publications, housing demographics, population figures from relevant institutions and other published materials. The data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics such as frequency distribution, Cross tabulation, Correlation Analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Relative Importance Index (RII). The result of the survey revealed that respondents from the Yoruba ethnic group constituted the majority, comprising 439 (91.5%) of the 480 respondents from the two local government areas selected. It also revealed that the type of tenure status of majority of the respondents in the two local government areas was self-ownership (234, 48.8%), while 44.0% of the respondents acquired their houses through personal savings. Cross tabulation indicated that majority (67.1%, 322 out of 480) of the respondents were low-income earners. The study showed that both housing and neighbourhood services were not adequately provided across neighbourhoods in the study area. Correlation analysis indicated a significant relationship between respondents’ socio–economic status and their general housing quality (r=0.46; p-value of 0.01< 0.05). The ANOVA indicated that the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the residents, housing and neighbourhood characteristics in the study area was significant (F=18.289, p=0.00; the coefficient of determination R2= 0.192). The findings from the study however revealed that there was no significant difference in the results obtained from users based evaluation and expert rating. The study concluded that housing quality in the urban fringes of Ibadan is generally poor and the socio-economic status of the residents significantly influenced the housing quality.

Keywords: housing quality, urban fringes, economic status, poverty

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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Authors: Rolf Katzenbach, Frithjof Clauss, Jie Zheng

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The final energy use can be divided mainly in four sectors: commercial, industrial, residential, and transportation. The trend in final energy consumption by sector plays as a most straightforward way to provide a wide indication of progress for reducing energy consumption and associated environmental impacts by different end use sectors. According to statistics the average share of end use energy for residential sector in the world was nearly 20% until 2011, in Germany a higher proportion is between 25% and 30%. However, it remains less studied than energy use in other three sectors as well its impacts on climate and environment. The reason for this involves a wide range of fields, including the diversity of residential construction like different housing building design and materials, living or energy using behavioral patterns, climatic condition and variation as well other social obstacles, market trend potential and financial support from government. This paper presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the manner by which projects researched and operated by authors in the fields of energy efficiency primarily from the perspectives of both technical potential and initiative energy saving consciousness in the residential sectors especially in social housing buildings.

Keywords: energy efficiency, renewable energy, retro-commissioning, social housing, sustainability

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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Authors: M. Stoklasa, H. Starzyczna, K. Matusinska

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This article deals with the perceived quality of regional products in the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic. Research was focused on finding out what do consumers perceive as a quality product and what characteristics make a quality product. The data were obtained by questionnaire survey and analysed by IBM SPSS. From the thousands of respondents the representative sample of 719 for MS region was created based on demographic factors of gender, age, education and income. The research analysis disclosed that consumers in MS region are still price oriented and that the preference of quality over price does not depend on regional brand knowledge.

Keywords: regional brands, quality products, characteristics of quality, quality over price

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Authors: Lara Leite Barbosa, Marco Imperadori

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This article aims to define strategies for applying innovative technology so that housing in regions subject to floods can be more resilient to disasters. Based on case studies of seven amphibious and floating projects, it proposes design guidelines to implement this practice. Its originality consists of transposing a technology developed for fluctuating buildings for housing types in regions affected by flood disasters. The proposal could be replicated in other contexts, endowing vulnerable households with the ability to resist rising water levels after a flood. The results of this study are design guidelines to adapt for houses in areas subject to flooding, contributing to the mitigation of this disaster.

Keywords: amphibious housing, disaster resilience, floating architecture, flood mitigation, post-disaster reconstruction

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Authors: Shimaa Mahmoud Ali Ahmed, Boshra Tawfek El-Shreef

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Sustainable development has become an important concern worldwide, and climate change has become a global threat. Some of these affect how we approach environmental issues — and how we should approach them. Environmental aspects have an important impact on the built environment, that’s why knowledge about Green Building and Green Construction become a vital dimension of urban sustainable development to face the challenges of climate change. There are several levels of green buildings, from energy-efficient lighting to 100% eco-friendly construction; the concept of green buildings in Egypt is still a rare occurrence, with the concept being relatively new to the market. There are several projects on the ground that currently employing sustainable and green solutions to some extent, some of them achieve a limit of success and others fail to employ the new solutions. The market and the cost as well, are great factors. From the last century, green architecture and environmental sustainability become a famous trend that all the researchers like to follow. Nowadays, the trend towards green has shifted to housing and real estate projects. While the environmental aspects are the key to achieve green buildings, the economic benefits, and the market forces are considered as big challenges. The paper assumes that some appropriate environmental treatments could be added to the applied prototype of the governmental social housing projects in Egypt to achieve better environmental solutions. The aim of the research is to get housing projects in Egypt closer to the track of sustainable and green buildings, through making a local future proposal to be integrated into the current policies. The proposed model is based upon adding some appropriate, cheap environmental modifications to the prototype of the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure, and New Urban Communities. The research is based on an analytical, comparative analytical, and inductive approach to study and analyze the housing projects in Egypt and the possibilities of integrating green techniques into it.

Keywords: green buildings, urban sustainability, housing projects, sustainable development goals, Egypt 2030

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Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma

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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.

Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Katerina Kormusheva

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Pricing plays a pivotal role in the marketing discipline as it directly influences consumer perceptions, purchase decisions, and overall market positioning of a product or service. This paper seeks to expand current knowledge in the area of discriminatory and differential pricing, a main area of marketing research. The methodology includes developing a framework and a model for determining how many price points to implement in differential pricing. We focus on choosing the levels of differentiation, derive a function form of the model framework proposed, and lastly, test it empirically with data from a large-scale marketing pricing experiment of services in telecommunications.

Keywords: marketing, differential pricing, price points, optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Olufemi M. Alabi, Foluke A. Aderemi, Adebayo A. Adewumi, Banwo O. Alabi

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General well-being of animals is of paramount interest in some developed countries and of global importance hence the shift onto alternative housing systems for egg-type chickens as replacement for conventional battery cage system. However, there is paucity of information on the effect of this shift on physiological status of the hens to judge their health via the blood profile. Therefore, investigation was carried out on two strains of hen kept in three different housing systems in humid tropics to evaluate changes in their blood parameters. 108, 17-weeks old super black (SBL) hens and 108, 17-weeks old super brown (SBR) hens were randomly allotted to three different intensive systems Partitioned Conventional Cage (PCC), Extended Conventional Cage (ECC) and Deep Litter System (DLS) in a randomized complete block design with 36 hens per housing system, each with three replicates. The experiment lasted 37 weeks during which blood samples were collected at 18th week of age and bi-weekly thereafter for analyses. Parameters measured are packed cell volume (PCV), hemoglobin concentration (Hb), red blood counts (RBC), white blood counts (WBC) and serum metabolites such as total protein (TP), albumin (Alb), globulin (Glb), glucose, cholesterol, urea, bilirubin, serum cortisol while blood indices such as mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean cell volume (MCV) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were calculated. The hematological values of the hens were not significantly (p>0.05) affected by the housing system and strain, so also the serum metabolites except for the serum cortisol which was significantly (p<0.05) affected by the housing system only. Hens housed on PCC had higher values (20.05 ng/ml for SBL and 20.55 ng/ml for SBR) followed by hens on ECC (18.15ng/ml for SBL and 18.38ng/ml for SBL) while hens on DLS had the lowest value (16.50ng/ml for SBL and 16.00ng/ml for SBR) thereby confirming indication of stress with conventionally caged birds. Alternative housing systems can also be adopted for egg-type chickens in the humid tropics from welfare point of view with the results of this work confirming stress among caged hens.

Keywords: blood, housing, humid-tropics, layers

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Authors: Zainal Abidin Akasah, Maizam Alias, Azuin Ramli

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The safety and health performances aspects of a building are the most challenging aspect of facility management. It requires a deep understanding by the building managers on the factors that contribute to health and safety performances. This study attempted to develop an explanatory architectural safety performance model for stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The proposed Building Safety and Health Performance (BSHP) model was tested empirically through a survey on 308 construction practitioners using Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) tool. Statistical analysis results supports the conclusion that architecture, building services, external environment, management approaches and maintenance management have positive influence on safety and health performance of stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The findings provide valuable insights for construction industry to introduce BSHP model in the future where the model could be used as a guideline for training purposes of managers and better planning and implementation of building management.

Keywords: building management, stratified low-cost housing, safety, health model

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: L. I. Shanshan

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Beginning with the debate of concept, this essay explains the historical source and development of flexible housing in China. In the former part, the flexibility contained in traditional house is explored. While in the latter, the relevant practices in modern times are systematically analyzed as three phases–the Embryonic Period (1949 - 1980), the Systematic Practice (1981 - 2000), as well as the Integrated Trend and Prosperity (2001 - present). As a conclusion, the generalized flexibility is tentatively discussed.

Keywords: flexibility, long-term effectiveness, variety, social background

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Authors: Tianyu Chen

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China's school district education policy has encouraged parents to purchase properties in school districts with high-quality education resources. Shanghai has implemented "Simultaneous Admission to Public and Private Schools" (SAPPS) since 2018, which has covered all nine-year compulsory education by 2020. This study examines the impact of SAPPS on the housing market, specifically the premium effect of houses located in dual-school districts. Based on the Hedonic Pricing Model and the Signaling Theory, data is collected from 585 second-hand house transactions in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, and it is analyzed with the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model. The results indicate that the implementation of SAPPS has exacerbated the premium of dual school district housing and weakened the effect of the policy to a certain degree. To ensure equal access to education for all students, the government should work both on the supply and demand sides of the education resource equation.

Keywords: simultaneous admission to public and private schools, housing prices, education policy, education equity

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Vikram Singh

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This paper aims to take into account carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation to manage Delhi carbon emissions after a post-Kyoto treaty. This report estimated the influence of the carbon taxes or rebate/compensation cost at the household level. Here, the three possible scenarios will help to comprehend the difference between a straightforward compensation/rebate, and two clearly denoting progressive formula. The straightforward compensation is basically minimizing the regressive applications that will bears on cost. On the other hand, both the progressive formula will generate extra revenue, which will help for feasibility of more efficient, vehicles, appliances and buildings in the low-income household. For the hypothetical case of carbon price $40/tonne, low-income household for both urban and rural region could experience price burden up to 5% and 9% on their income as compared to 3% and 7% for high-income household respectively. The survey report also shown that carbon emission due low-income household are primarily by the substantive requirement like housing and transportation whereas almost 40% emission due to high-income household are by luxurious and non-essential items. The equal distribution of revenue cum incentives will not completely overcome high-income household’s investment in inessential items. However, it will merely help in investing their income in energy efficient and less carbon intensive items. Therefore, the rebate distribution on per capita basis instead on per households will benefit more especially large families at low-income group.

Keywords: household emission, carbon credit, carbon intensity, green house gas emission, carbon generation based insentives

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Kwadwo Afari Gyan

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Cities are growing at unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, governments in the Global South are already overwhelmed by this growth and are unable to provide infrastructure proactively as expected. As a result, urban residents resort to providing their own infrastructure, such as drainage systems, as part of self-built housing development. Their small-scale, incremental housing practices, which often represent the formation of dense and diverse housing types, styles, and ages, have been identified to affect the planning of drainage systems at the regional scale. Such developments reflect the varied, affordable responses as part of a collective effort to curb regional problems, specifically flooding in this case. However, while some are included in this collective action, others are excluded as they are unable to afford to be included. This phenomenon, in addition to the formation of new autonomous localities, has led to challenges in mitigating flooding and has affected resilience to climate change. Using a qualitative approach, this paper explores how the mismatch between housing development, which occurs at an individual scale, and drainage infrastructure, which is provided at a regional scale, affects a regional effort to mitigate flooding in Tema, Ghana. It seeks to explore and reveal a relationship between affordability and inclusiveness. It also explores how density and diversity influence public infrastructure provision and their connection with affordability.

Keywords: climate change, affordability, inclusivity, equity, contextualization, regionalism

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Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim

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This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.

Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Seyeon Lee, Suyeon Lee, Julia Rogers

Abstract:

This research investigates and records post-flood and typhoon conditions of low income housing in the Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam; area prone to extreme flooding in Central Vietnam. The cost of rebuilding houses after flood and typhoon has been always a burden for low income households. These costs often lead to the elimination of essential construction practices for disaster resistance. Despite relief efforts from international non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, the impacts of flood and typhoon damages to residential construction has been reoccurring to the same neighborhood annually. Notwithstanding its importance, this topic has not been systematically investigated. The study is limited to assistance provided to low income households documenting existing conditions of low income homes impacted by post flood and typhoon conditions in the Thua Thien Hue Province. The research identifies leading causes of the building failure from the natural disasters. Relief efforts and progress made since the last typhoon is documented. The quality of construction and repairs are assessed based on Home Builders Guide to Coastal Construction by Federal Emergency Management Agency. Focus group discussions and individual interviews with local residents from four different communities were conducted to get incites on repair effort by the non-profit organizations and Vietnam government, and their needs post flood and typhoon. The findings from the field study informed that many of the local people are now aware of the importance of improving housing conditions as one of the key coping strategies to withstand flood and typhoon events as it makes housing and community more resilient to future events. While there has been a remarkable improvement of housing and infrastructure with the support from the local government as well as the non-profit organizations, many households in the study areas are found to still live in weak and fragile housing conditions without gaining access to the aid to repair and strengthen the houses. Given that the major immediate recovery action taken by the local people tends to focus on repairing damaged houses, and on this ground, low-income households spend a considerable amount of their income on housing repair, providing proper and applicable construction practices will not only improve the housing condition, but also contribute to reducing poverty in Vietnam.

Keywords: disaster coping mechanism, housing welfare, low-income housing, recovery reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Rifat Tabassoom

Abstract:

Recently multistoried housing projects are accelerating in the capital of Bangladesh- Dhaka, to house its massive population. Insufficient background research leads to a building design trend where a single unit is designed and then multiplied all through the buildings. Therefore, although having identical designs, all the units cannot perform evenly considering daylight, which also alters their household activities. This paper aims to understand if a single unit can be an optimum solution regarding daylight for a selected housing project.

Keywords: daylight, orientation, performance, simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

This paper applies directional marginal productivity model to study the shadow price of emissions by transportation modes in the years of 2011 and 2013 with the aim to provide a reference for policy makers to improve the emission of pollutants. One input variable (i.e., energy consumption), one desirable output variable (i.e., vehicle kilometers traveled) and three undesirable output variables (i.e., carbon dioxide, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides) generated by road transportation modes were used to evaluate directional marginal productivity and directional shadow price for 18 transportation modes. The results show that the directional shadow price (DSP) of SOx is much higher than CO2 and NOx. Nevertheless, the emission of CO2 is the largest among the three kinds of pollutants. To improve the air quality, the government should pay more attention to the emission of CO2 and apply the alternative solution such as promoting public transportation and subsidizing electric vehicles to reduce the use of private vehicles.

Keywords: marginal productivity, road transportation modes, shadow price, undesirable outputs

Procedia PDF Downloads 123