Search results for: Indonesia sharia stock index

Authors: Ali Akber Jaffri, Asad Naseem, Javeria Khan, Zubair Hamza, Ishtiaq

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The purpose of this study is to determine safety stock, maximum inventory level, reordering point, and reordering quantity by rearranging lot sizes for supplier and customer in MRO (maintenance repair operations) warehouse of Engro Polymers & Chemicals. To achieve the aim, physical analysis method and excel commands were carried out to elicit the customer and supplier data provided by the company. Initially, we rearranged the current lot sizes and MOUs (measure of units) in SAP software. Due to change in lot sizes, we have to determine the new quantities for safety stock, maximum inventory, reordering point and reordering quantity as per company's demand. By proposed system, we saved extra cost in terms of reducing time of receiving from vendor and in issuance to customer, ease of material handling in MRO warehouse and also reduce human efforts.

Keywords: maintenance repair operation, maximum inventory, reorder quantity, safety stock

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Authors: Bernhard Bauer, Thomas Meixner, Amir Dini, Detlef Heck

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The inner city building stock is characterized by different types of buildings of different decades and centuries and different types of historical constructions. Depending on the natural growth of a city, those types are often located in downtown areas and the surrounding suburbs. Since the population is becoming older and the variation of the different social requirements spread with the so-called 'Silver Society', city quarters have to be seen alternatively. If an area is very attractive for young students to live there because of the busy nightlife, it might not be suitable for the older society. To identify 'Location Types A, B, C' for different user groups, qualitative interviews with 24 citizens of the city of Graz (Austria) have been carried out, in order to identify the most important values for making a location or city quarter 'A', 'B', or 'C'. Furthermore these acknowledgements have been put into a softwaretool for predicting locations that are the most suitable for certain user groups. On the other hands side, investors or owners of buildings can use the tool for determining the most suitable user group for the location of their building or construction project in order to adapt the project or building stock to the requirements of the users.

Keywords: building stock, location parameters, inner city population, built environment

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Authors: Mohammad Abu Nassar, Mahmoud Al Khalilah, Hussein Abu Nassar

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The purpose of this study is to examine whether corporate tax avoidance practices can impact firm value in the Jordanian context. The study employs a quantitative approach using s sample of (124) industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for the period from 2010 to 2019. Multiple linear regression analysis has been applied to test the study's hypothesis. The study employs effective tax rate and book-tax difference to measure tax avoidance and Tobin's Q factor to measure firm value. The results of the study revealed that tax avoidance practices, when measured using effective tax rates, do not significantly impact firm value. When the book-tax difference is used to measure tax avoidance, the study results showed a negative impact on firm value. The result of the study has not supported the traditional view of tax avoidance as a transfer of wealth from the government to shareholders for industrial and services companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange, indicating that Jordanian firms should not use tax avoidance strategies to enhance their value.

Keywords: tax avoidance, effective tax rate, book-tax difference, firm value, Amman stock exchange

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

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In this paper, the comparison between k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) algorithms for classifying the 3D EEG model in brain balancing is presented. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 51 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, maximum PSD values were extracted as features from the model. There are three indexes for the balanced brain; index 3, index 4 and index 5. There are significant different of the EEG signals due to the brain balancing index (BBI). Alpha-α (8–13 Hz) and beta-β (13–30 Hz) were used as input signals for the classification model. The k-NN classification result is 88.46% accuracy. These results proved that k-NN can be used in order to predict the brain balancing application.

Keywords: power spectral density, 3D EEG model, brain balancing, kNN

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Authors: M. Inbar Daeribi, Vara Leoni

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Street Library Movement has been established and started to grow in some cities in Indonesia as a social movement. In the beginning, this movement emerged as a response to Indonesian lack of reading culture. Nevertheless, this study found out that street library movement is not only a literacy movement for developing reading culture. Furthermore, this movement is also a resistance towards education system in Indonesia. Street library movement is a critical consciousness driven by autonomous working group (community) as counter-public form towards Indonesia’s education condition legitimated by the government. This study, conducted in qualitative method with street library movement in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia as the object of study, will examine resistance forms of this movement and its social impacts. By studying this paper, it can be explained how street library movement served as an engine for social development.

Keywords: street library movement, social movement, resistance, education system

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Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, Hamisi F. Hamisi

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Background: Many socio-economic and demographic data are age-sex attributed. However, a variety of irregularities and misstatement are noted with respect to age-related data and less to sex data because of its biological differences between the genders. Noting the misstatement/misreporting of age data regardless of its significance importance in demographics and epidemiological studies, this study aims at assessing the quality of 2012 Tanzania Population and Housing Census Results. Methods: Data for the analysis are downloaded from Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics. Age heaping and digit preference were measured using summary indices viz., Whipple’s index, Myers’ blended index, and Age-Sex Accuracy index. Results: The recorded Whipple’s index for both sexes was 154.43; male has the lowest index of about 152.65 while female has the highest index of about 156.07. For Myers’ blended index, the preferences were at digits ‘0’ and ‘5’ while avoidance were at digits ‘1’ and ‘3’ for both sexes. Finally, Age-sex index stood at 59.8 where sex ratio score was 5.82 and age ratio scores were 20.89 and 21.4 for males and female respectively. Conclusion: The evaluation of the 2012 PHC data using the demographic techniques has qualified the data inaccurate as the results of systematic heaping and digit preferences/avoidances. Thus, innovative methods in data collection along with measuring and minimizing errors using statistical techniques should be used to ensure accuracy of age data.

Keywords: age heaping, digit preference/avoidance, summary indices, Whipple’s index, Myer’s index, age-sex accuracy index

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Naoki Suzuki, Kalla Alok, Nath Paras

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Bluefin (Thunnus orientalis) tuna is one of the most economically valuable tuna species in the world. In recent years the stock has been observed to decline. It is suspected that the stock-recruitment relationship and population structure is influenced by environmental and climatic variables. This study was aimed at investigating the influence of environmental and climatic conditions on the trajectory of the different life stages of the North Pacific bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis was performed for the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the bluefin tuna cohorts (age-0, 1, 2,…,9, 10+). General Additive Modeling (GAM) was used to reconstruct the recruitment (R) trajectory. The spatial movement of the SST was also monitored from 1953 to 2012 in the distribution area of the bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis showed significance influence of the North Pacific Sea Surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the age-0 group. Other age group (1, 2,…,9, 10+) time series did not exhibit any significant correlations. PDO showed most significant relationship in the months of October to December. Although the stock-recruitment relationship is of biological significance, the recruits (age-0) showed poor correlation with the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB). Indeed the most significant model incorporated the SSB, SST and PDO. The results show that the stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific bluefin tuna is multi-dimensional and cannot be adequately explained by the SSB alone. SST and PDO forcing of the population structure is of significant importance and needs to be accounted for when making harvesting plans for bluefin tuna in the North Pacific.

Keywords: pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, cohorts, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, general additive model

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Authors: Ahmed BenSaïda

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This study examines the relationship between crude oil and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region stock markets by employing a regime-switching approach. The methodology provides new insights into how the interrelationship between oil and GCC stock markets may fluctuate in different economic or market regimes, which is crucial for understanding the transmission of oil shocks and tailoring policy responses. Our findings indicate that the spillovers between the underlying assets are asymmetric. Specifically, during the turmoil periods, the connectedness is intense among these assets, whereas during tranquil periods, the linkage is moderate. Furthermore, an increase in oil prices can positively contribute to the profits of firms that are heavily dependent on oil, leading to an increase in the linkage between these countries and crude oil. The findings have important implications for investors and decision-makers in the GCC region.

Keywords: GCC indices, oil, regime-switching, spillovers

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Authors: Budi Annisa Sidi

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Present-day Indonesia maintains a narrative of a culturally plural but unified nation. At the same time, multicultural policies extend different degrees of recognition, accommodation, toleration and even discrimination towards different socio-cultural groups. In conjunction with different ethnographic landscapes across regions in Indonesia, this approach leads to a varied experience and understanding of national identity and multiculturalism among people. As a result, governments seeking to maintain national unity while practicing multiculturalism have to juggle different expectations. This situation is examined through the microcosms of university students using questionnaires followed up by focus group discussions and personal interviews. A comparison between university students across four different provinces in Indonesia (Aceh, Jakarta, West Java and the Moluccas) highlights the influence of one’s surroundings on their perception of multiculturalism. Students in the more heterogeneous areas generally show more acceptance towards diversity compared to students in primarily homogenous areas who have little actual experience in dealing with diversity. Regardless of their environment, students claim to have positive feelings and a strong sense of attachment to Indonesia but hold different ideas of what constitutes an ideal Indonesian national identity.

Keywords: Indonesia, multiculturalism, national identity, nationalism

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Authors: Dwi Ashari

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This study attempts to disclose people’s privacy in Indonesian media. Many television (henceforth: TV) programs have shown the exposure of people’s privacy. People, not only celebrities, who appear in TV program often, share their life to the participants to get very intimate self-disclosure with them. Indonesia, as one of the countries with highest population, has many people who watch television everyday. This can be the major factor for some TV stations to create a program to get people’s attention to gain more profit. This study examines some factors of Indonesia TV programs that share the people’s privacy. The relation of privacy in Indonesia TV programs will be related to the concept of self-disclosure and intimacy between the people who share and watch the programs.

Keywords: Indonesia, media, privacy, self-disclosure

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Authors: Mursidin Yusuf, Fitri Wulandari

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Indonesia has changed its curriculum ten times, starting from 1947 to 2022, and it might change in upcoming years. This comprehensive study delves into the global perspectives of educational leadership, with a specific focus on examining curriculum changes within the context of Indonesia. Against the backdrop of an increasingly interconnected educational landscape, the necessity to comprehend diverse leadership approaches becomes paramount. By employing a qualitative case study methodology, this research meticulously scrutinizes ten notable curriculum modifications within the Indonesian educational framework and evaluates their impacts on the sector. Utilizing document analysis, pertinent literature, and interviews with school principals, the study thoroughly explores the leadership dynamics that have influenced these alterations. The findings offer multifaceted insights into the strategies, challenges, and outcomes associated with curriculum reform initiatives in Indonesia, providing a nuanced understanding of the effects of these changes on the education sector.

Keywords: curriculum changes, educational leadership, global perspectives, Indonesia

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Authors: Mhd. Zakiul Fikri, M. Agus Maulidi

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Indonesia is a constitutional state. As the constitutional state, Indonesia is not only using a single legal system, but also adopting three legal systems consist of: The European continental legal system or positive law of Indonesia, adat law system, and legal system of religion. This study will discuss Marosok tradition in the process of buying and selling cattle in Payakumbuh: a comparative study between adat law and positive law of Indonesia. The objectives of this research are: First, to find the meaning of the philosophical of Marosok tradition in Payakumbuh. Second, to find the legal implications of the Marosok tradition reviewed aspects of adat law and positive law of Indonesia. Third, to find legal procedure in arbitrating the dispute wich is potentially appear in the post-process of buying and selling cattle based on positive law and adat law adopted in Indonesia. This research is empirical legal research that using two model approaches which are statute approach and conceptual approach. Data was obtained through interviews, observations, and documents or books. Then a method of data analysis used is inductive analysis. Finally, this study found that: First, tradition of Marosok contains the meaning of harmonization of social life that keep people from negative debate, envy, and arrogant. Second, Marosok tradition is one of the adat law in Indonesia; it is one of contract law in the process of buying and selling. If the comparison between the practice Marosok tradition as adat law with the provisions of Article 1320 book of civil code about the terms of the validity of a contract, the elements contained in the provisions of these regulations are met in practice Marosok. Thus, the practice of Marosok in buying and selling cattle process in Payakumbuh justified in view of the positive law of Indonesia. Last of all, all kinds of disputes arising due to contracts made by Marosok tradition can be resolved by positive law and adat law of Indonesia.

Keywords: Adat law, contract, Indonesia, Marosok

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Authors: Tomy Prihananto, Damar Apri Sudarmadi

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Indonesia recognizes the right to privacy as a human right. Indonesia provides legal protection against data management activities because the protection of personal data is a part of human rights. This paper aims to describe the arrangement of data management and data management in Indonesia. This paper is a descriptive research with qualitative approach and collecting data from literature study. Results of this paper are comprehensive arrangement of data that have been set up as a technical requirement of data protection by encryption methods. Arrangements on encryption and protection of personal data are mutually reinforcing arrangements in the protection of personal data. Indonesia has two important and immediately enacted laws that provide protection for the privacy of information that is part of human rights.

Keywords: Indonesia, protection, personal data, privacy, human rights, encryption

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Authors: Muhadam Labolo, Mughny Ibtisyam Mukhlis, Zulkarnaen, Safira Maulida Rahman Soulisa

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This research is motivated by one of the functions of government is a regulatory function. Aceh Province, especially in Banda Aceh City has special autonomy, one of them is in the application of Islamic law, but when the law implemented to the citizen, there are many problems happens. One of the problems faced by the Government and people of Banda Aceh was Seclusion. Seclusion/nasty silent act between two people mukallafor more of the opposite sex who is not mahram or without marriage. This study aims to determine and analyze how the effectiveness of the policy as well as enabling and inhibiting factors of Qanun Number 14 of 2003 On Khalwat (nasty) in sharia Islam Islamic law in the city of Banda Aceh. This type of research is qualitative research method is a descriptive and inductive approach. The source of data used is People, Problem, Phenomenon, and programs, while the data collection through field studies and literature such as interviews, observation, and documentation. The results of this study were analyzed by using data reduction, display data, conclusions, and verification. The results showed that the Qanun Number 14 of 2003 on Khalwat (nasty) in the establishment of Islamic law in Banda Aceh is still not effective. It is seen from the high number of violations seclusion committed by Banda Aceh citizen, especially among teenagers, lack of socialization, as well as a lack of budgetary support for the implementation of Islamic Law in Banda Aceh. The supporting factors are 1) Coordination and communication among agencies had been walking steadily. 2) Facilities and infrastructure Syar'iah Court of Banda Aceh and the Office of Sharia Islam Banda Aceh that very good. 3) The Cultural majority of the people of Banda Aceh that support. Inhibiting factors: 1) There are no written duties of each institution for the prosecution case Seclusion. 2) The lack of socialization programs. 3) Lack of facilities and infrastructure Municipal Police Unit and the WH less. 4) Lack of control by the family. 5) The absence of training for officials Municipal Police Units and the Wilayatul Hisbah Banda Aceh.

Keywords: effectiveness, Islamic Sharia, Khalwat, Qanun

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Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

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Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: Rong Guo, Mengshi Huang, Yujing Bai

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With the rapid development of urbanization, the urban population increases and urban sprawl appeared. And these issues led to a sharp deterioration of the ecological environment. So, the urban ecological security evaluation was imminent. The weights identify of index was a key step of the research of ecological security evaluation. The AHP was widely used in the extensive research of weights identify of ecological security index. The characteristics of authority and quantitative can fully reflect the views of relevant experts. On the basis of building the ecological security evaluation index of Harbin, the paper combed and used the basic principle of the AHP, and calculated the weights of Harbin ecological security evaluation index through the process of the expert opinions “summary-feedback-summary”. And lay a foundation of future study of Harbin ecological security index, and guide the quantitative evaluation of Harbin ecological security.

Keywords: AHP, ecological security, evaluation Index, weights identify, harbin

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Authors: Sri Wartini

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Based on the sovereignty over natural resources principle, the Indonesian government has an authority to exploit the natural resources within a national jurisdiction of Indonesia. The forest is one of the natural resources which is very valuable for Indonesia. It becomes the source of raw material for many industrial activities, such as pharmaceutical industry, pulp industry, and household furniture industry. Hence, it contributes to the economic development of Indonesia. However, the exploitation of the forest may cause negative impacts, such as environmental pollution and environmental degradation. The implementation of the sovereignty over natural resources principle in Indonesia may jeopardize the forest and affect the sustainability of the forest if there is no appropriate policy of the government to exploit the forest in a sustainable manner. The exploitation of the forest in Indonesia, in some extent, has caused serious impact to environment and biodiversity. Hence, in order to sustain and to maintain the forest as the valuable resources to the future generation, the government of Indonesia has already adopted many programmes and action plans. The aim of the research is to undertake a critical examination of the issues relating to the the implementation of sovereignty over natural resources to the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia. It is a normative research and the methodology employed in this research is library research. While the approaches employed in the research are conceptual approach., statutory approach, and comparative approach. The research finds that the implementation of sovereignty over natural resources principle in the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia is limited by other principles of international environmental law, such as sustainable development principle, intergenerational principle and common concern principle which have been adopted in the government policy and various regulations regarding the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia.

Keywords: Environmental damage, negative impacts, pollution, the sovereignty over natural resources

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

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The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, Monte Carlo simulations, sample

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Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

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This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

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Authors: Dwi Yulian Fahruddin Shah, Mochammad Luthfy Rizaldy Dwi Putra, Tommy Adi Rachmawan, Mona Annisa Matondang, Nadya Sylvia, Hilmy Ramzy Rinaldy

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Gili island is one of the island in Indonesia which is located in Probolinggo city, East Java. Gili Island has some potential culture as local wisdom that can be used as tourism commodity because it can be used as attractive ecotourism. With the ecotourism that utilize local wisdom of Indonesian’s culture that located in Gili can introduce the richness of Indonesian culture in the world that will increase foreign exchange. One of the cultural potential as local wisdom in Gili island are Petik Laut and Onjem. It are a culture in Gili island that can’t be found in other island in Indonesia. Not just that but also it are a cultural identity that is owned by Gili island which has fill the criteria to be used as local wisdom that can be used as ecotourism that can bring Indonesian culture to the world so that the tourists of the world will visit to Indonesia, especially to Gili island to see Petik Laut and Onjem culture directly.

Keywords: Gili island, petik laut and onjem culture, ecotourism, indonesia’s culture

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Authors: Raihan Zahirah Mauludy Ridwan, Frisca Devi Choirina

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Indonesia with its former presidents has enhanced the bilateral cooperation also multilateral cooperation in terms of economy but the result was not significant towards eradicating poverty, unemployment, income inequality, and economic growth. To eradicate these problems, President Joko Widodo through his several points of Nawacita wants to boost Indonesia’s economic relationship and cooperation which manifested in “Economic Diplomacy” as one of Indonesia’s foreign policy priority and he pitches it in international forums. The economic diplomacy does not only attracts prospective countries but also attracts the foreign businessman and investors. The economic diplomacy includes four sectors which are vital for economic growth, one of them is investment. This paper would like to answer how economic diplomacy can have significant impact towards social welfare, equity and economic growth especially in Indonesia. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of economic diplomacy and its impact toward Indonesia’s welfare, equity, and economic growth. This paper uses the theory of economic diplomacy to link the current international political economic sphere and the impact of economic diplomacy for Indonesia through case study method. The paper affirms that economic diplomacy in investment sector does have significant impact, especially in the development of infrastructures, foreign direct investment in several sectors, and food security.

Keywords: economic diplomacy, economic growth, equity, Indonesia, Joko Widodo, social welfare

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Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

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In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

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Authors: Lizhou Chen, Abdelhamid Belgaid, Assem Elsayed, Xiaoming Yang

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Compression index is essential in foundation settlement calculation. The traditional method for determining compression index is consolidation test which is expensive and time consuming. Many researchers have used regression methods to develop empirical equations for predicting compression index from soil properties. Based on a large number of compression index data collected from consolidation tests, the accuracy of some popularly empirical equations were assessed. It was found that primary compression index is significantly overestimated in some equations while it is underestimated in others. The sensitivity analyses of soil parameters including water content, liquid limit and void ratio were performed. The results indicate that the compression index obtained from void ratio is most accurate. The ANOVA (analysis of variance) demonstrates that the equations with multiple soil parameters cannot provide better predictions than the equations with single soil parameter. In other words, it is not necessary to develop the relationships between compression index and multiple soil parameters. Meanwhile, it was noted that secondary compression index is approximately 0.7-5.0% of primary compression index with an average of 2.0%. In the end, the proposed prediction equations using power regression technique were provided that can provide more accurate predictions than those from existing equations.

Keywords: compression index, clay, settlement, consolidation, secondary compression index, soil parameter

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Nur Imroatun Sholihat, Gresika Bunga Sylvana

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Currently, cyber attack became an incredibly serious problem due to its increasing trend all over the world. Therefore, information security becomes prominent for every organization including public sector organization. In Indonesia, unfortunately, Ministry of Finance (MoF) is the only public sector organization that has already formally established procedure to assess its information security adequacy by performing information security audits (November 2017). We assess the implementation of information security audits in the MoF using qualitative data obtained by interviewing IT auditors and by analysis of related documents. For this reason, information security audit practice in the MoF could become the acceptable benchmark for all other public sector organizations in Indonesia. This study is important because, to the best of the author’s knowledge, our research into information security audits practice in Indonesia’s public sector have not been found yet. Results showed that information security audits performed mostly by doing pentest (penetration testing) to MoF’s critical applications.

Keywords: information security audit, information technology, Ministry of Finance of Indonesia, public sector organization

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou, Yi-Ting Chen, Chen-Syuan Lin

Abstract:

Soil water index obtained by tank model is now commonly used in soil and sand disaster alarm system in Japan. Comparing with the rainfall trigging index in Taiwan, the tank model is easy to predict the slope water content on large-scale landslide. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the threshold value of large-scale landslide using the soil water index Sixteen typhoons and heavy rainfall events, were selected to establish the, to relationship between landslide event and soil water index. Finally, the proposed threshold values for landslides on country road No.89 are suggested in this study. The study results show that 95% landslide cases occurred in soil water index more than 125mm, and 30% of the more serious slope failure occurred in the soil water index is greater than 250mm. Beside, this study speculates when soil water index more than 250mm and the difference value between second tank and third tank less than -25mm, it leads to large-scale landslide more probably.

Keywords: soil water index, tank model, landslide, threshold values

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

Abstract:

Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 154