Search results for: hybrid models

Authors: Al Romano, Jeryl C. Hije, Mechaela Marie O. Tabiolo

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The decline in water quality is a major factor in aquatic disease outbreaks and can lead to significant mortality among aquatic organisms. Understanding the relationship between dissolved oxygen (DO) and water temperature is crucial, as these variables directly impact the health, behavior, and survival of fish populations. This study investigated how DO levels, water temperature, and atmospheric temperature interact in Sampaloc Lake to assess the risk of fish mortality. By employing a combination of linear regression models and machine learning techniques, researchers developed predictive models to forecast DO concentrations at various depths. The results indicate that while DO levels generally decrease with depth, the predicted concentrations are sufficient to support the survival of common fish species in Sampaloc Lake during March, April, and May 2025.

Keywords: aquaculture, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, regression analysis, machine learning, fish mass mortality, early warning system

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Authors: Alexander Marx

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Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz

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The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.

Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping

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Authors: Prakash Chandra Dhara, Rupa Maity, Mousumi Chatterjee

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Crowbars are used for the gardening purpose. The same tools are used by both male and female gardeners. The existing crowbars are suitable for the female gardeners. The present study was aimed to design a crowbar, which was required to use by the women for the gardening purpose, from the viewpoints of ergonomics. The study was carried out on 50 women in different villages of Howrah districts in West Bengal state. Different models of existing crowbars which were commonly used by the women were collected and evaluated by examining their shape and size. The problems of using existing crowbar were assessed by direct observation during its operation. The musculoskeletal disorder of the subjects for using the crowbar was evaluated by modified Nordic questionnaire method. The anthropometric dimensions, especially hand dimension, of the subjects were taken in standardized static conditions. Considering the problems of using the existing crowbars some design concepts were developed and accordingly three prototypes models (P1, P2, P3) of crowbar were prepared for designing of a modified crowbar for women. Psychophysical analysis of those prototypes was made by paired comparison tests. In the above test subjective preference for different characteristics of the crowbar, e.g., length, weight, length and breadth of the blade, handle diameter, position of the handle, were determined. From the results of the paired comparison test and percentile values of hand dimensions, a modified design of crowbar was suggested. The prototype model P1 possessed more preferred characteristics of the tool than that of other prototype models. In the final design, the weight of the tool and length of the blade was reduced from that of the existing crowbar. Other dimensions were also changed. Two handles were suggested in the redesigned tool for better gripping and operation. The modified crowbar was evaluated by studying the body joint angles, viz., wrist, shoulder and elbow, for assessing the suitability of the design. It was concluded that the redesigned crowbar was suitable for women’s use.

Keywords: body dimension, crowbar, ergo-design, women, hand anthropometry

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Authors: M. Alkhalidi, S. Neelamani, Z. Al-Zaqah

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This paper investigates the interaction of single and twin offshore rubble mound breakwaters with regular and random water waves through physical modeling to assess their reflection, transmission and energy dissipation characteristics. Various combinations of wave heights and wave periods were utilized in a series of experiments, along with three different water depths. The single and twin permeable breakwater models were both constructed with one layer of rubbles. Both models had the same total volume; however, the single breakwater was of trapezoidal type while the twin breakwaters were of triangular type. Physical modeling experiments were carried out in the wave flume of the coastal engineering laboratory of Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR). Measurements of the six wave probes which were fixed in the two-dimensional wave flume were collected and used to determine the generated incident wave heights, as well as the reflected and transmitted wave heights resulting from the wave-breakwater interaction. The possible factors affecting the wave attenuation efficiency of the breakwater models are the relative water depth (d/L), wave steepness (H/L), relative wave height ((h-d)/Hi), relative height of the breakwater (h/d), and relative clear spacing between the twin breakwaters (S/h). The results indicated that the single and double breakwaters show different responds to the change in their relative height as well as the relative wave height which demonstrates that the effect of the relative water depth on wave reflection, transmission, and energy dissipation is highly influenced by the change in the relative breakwater height, the relative wave height and the relative breakwater spacing. In general, within the range of the relative water depth tested in this study, and under both regular and random waves, it is found that the single breakwater allows for lower wave transmission and shows higher energy dissipation effect than both of the tested twin breakwaters, and hence has the best overall performance.

Keywords: random waves, regular waves, relative water depth, relative wave height, single breakwater, twin breakwater, wave steepness

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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The integration of green energy resources is a major focus, and the role of Medium Voltage Direct Current (MVDC) systems is exponentially expanding. However, the protection of MVDC systems against DC faults is a challenge that can have consequences on reliable and safe grid operation. This challenge reveals the need for MVDC circuit breakers (MVDC CB), which are in infancies of their improvement. Therefore will be a lack of MVDC CBs standards, including thresholds for acceptable power losses and operation speed. To establish a baseline for comparison purposes, a benchmark system for testing future MVDC CBs is vital. The literatures just give the timing sequence of each switch and the emphasis is on the topology, without in-depth study on the control algorithm of DCCB, as the circuit breaker control system is not yet systematic. A digital testing benchmark is designed for the Proof-of-concept of simulation studies using software models. It can validate studies based on real-time digital simulators and Transient Network Analyzer (TNA) models. The proposed experimental setup utilizes data accusation from the accurate sensors installed on the tested MVDC CB and through general purpose input/outputs (GPIO) from the microcontroller and PC Prototype studies in the laboratory-based models utilizing Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) equipment connected to real-time digital simulators is achieved. The improved control algorithm of the circuit breaker can reduce the peak fault current and avoid arc resignation, helping the coordination of DCCB in relay protection. Moreover, several research gaps are identified regarding case studies and evaluation approaches.

Keywords: DC circuit breaker, hardware-in-the-loop, real time digital simulation, testing benchmark

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Authors: Piret Pernik

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Based on strategic, operational, and technical analysis of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, this paper will examine the opportunities and risks of using small commercial drones (dual-use unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV) for military purposes. The paper discusses the opportunities and risks in the information domain, encompassing both cyber and electromagnetic interference and attacks. The paper will draw conclusions on a possible strategic impact to the battlefield outcomes in the modern armed conflicts by the widespread use of dual-use UAVs. This article will contribute to filling the gap in the literature by examining based on empirical data cyberattacks and electromagnetic interference. Today, more than one hundred states and non-state actors possess UAVs ranging from low cost commodity models, widely are dual-use, available and affordable to anyone, to high-cost combat UAVs (UCAV) with lethal kinetic strike capabilities, which can be enhanced with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Dual-use UAVs have been used by various actors for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, situational awareness, geolocation, and kinetic targeting. Thus they function as force multipliers enabling kinetic and electronic warfare attacks and provide comparative and asymmetric operational and tactical advances. Some go as far as argue that automated (or semi-automated) systems can change the character of warfare, while others observe that the use of small drones has not changed the balance of power or battlefield outcomes. UAVs give considerable opportunities for commanders, for example, because they can be operated without GPS navigation, makes them less vulnerable and dependent on satellite communications. They can and have been used to conduct cyberattacks, electromagnetic interference, and kinetic attacks. However, they are highly vulnerable to those attacks themselves. So far, strategic studies, literature, and expert commentary have overlooked cybersecurity and electronic interference dimension of the use of dual use UAVs. The studies that link technical analysis of opportunities and risks with strategic battlefield outcomes is missing. It is expected that dual use commercial UAV proliferation in armed and hybrid conflicts will continue and accelerate in the future. Therefore, it is important to understand specific opportunities and risks related to the crowdsourced use of dual-use UAVs, which can have kinetic effects. Technical countermeasures to protect UAVs differ depending on a type of UAV (small, midsize, large, stealth combat), and this paper will offer a unique analysis of small UAVs both from the view of opportunities and risks for commanders and other actors in armed conflict.

Keywords: dual-use technology, cyber attacks, electromagnetic warfare, case studies of cyberattacks in armed conflicts

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Authors: Delva Richard, Zahibo Narcisse, Yalciner Ahmet

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The Republic of Haiti is one of the poor countries of the world, therefore the authorities must make choices to provide timely solutions to the many difficulties that this Caribbean country is experiencing. There is a very acute lack of scientific research to study natural phenomena in depth. A working group meeting was established under the aegis of the World Bank, UNESCO and the authorities, to study the level of exposure of the Hispaniola. The devastating earthquake of August 2021 killed about 2100 and caused massive material damage; and the 14 12 January 2010 killed more than 250,000 people and caused massive material damage, the evidence of which is still 11 years later. In this paper we want to contribute to the assessment of the risk of tsunami on the southern peninsula of the Republic of Haiti. For the realization of this work we have the bathymetric and topographic data of very good qualities from the private measurement campaigns that we have combined with GEBCO for the inundation grids. We use two numerical models MOST and NAMI DANCE for the calculation of the parameters required in any tsunami risk assessment.

Keywords: modélisation numérique, ondes longues océaniques, bathymetrie, evaluation risque, tsunamis

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Authors: Cody Stolle, Mojdeh Asadollahipajouh, Khaleb Pafford, Jada Iwuoha, Samantha White, Becky Mueller

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Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are growing in sales and popularity in the United States as an alternative to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). BEVs are generally heavier than corresponding models of ICEVs, with large battery packs located beneath the vehicle floorpan, a “skateboard” chassis, and have front and rear crush space available in the trunk and “frunk” or front trunk. The geometrical and frame differences between the vehicles may lead to incompatibilities with gasoline vehicles during vehicle-to-vehicle crashes as well as run-off-road crashes with roadside barriers, which were designed to handle lighter ICEVs with higher centers-of-mass and with dedicated structural chasses. Crash data were collected from 10 states spanning a five-year period between 2017 and 2021. Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) codes were processed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) VIN decoder to extract BEV models from ICEV models. Crashes were filtered to isolate only vehicles produced between 2010 and 2021, and the crash circumstances (weather, time of day, maximum injury) were compared between BEVs and ICEVs. In Washington, 436,613 crashes were identified, which satisfied the selection criteria, and 3,371 of these crashes (0.77%) involved a BEV. The number of crashes which noted a fire were comparable between BEVs and ICEVs of similar model years (0.3% and 0.33%, respectively), and no differences were discernable for the time of day, weather conditions, road geometry, or other prevailing factors (e.g., run-off-road). However, crashes involving BEVs rose rapidly; 31% of all BEV crashes occurred in just 2021. Results indicate that BEVs are performing comparably to ICEVs, and events surrounding BEV crashes are statistically indistinguishable from ICEV crashes.

Keywords: battery-electric vehicles, transportation safety, infrastructure crashworthiness, run-off-road crashes, ev crash data analysis

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Authors: Ceyhun Aksoylu, Rifat Sezer

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In this study, a strengthening method applicable without any evacuation process was investigated. In this analytical study, the pushover analysis results carry out by using the software of SAP2000. For this purpose, 1/3 scaled, 1-bay and 2-story R/C seven frames having usual deficiencies faults produced, one of which were not strengthened, but having brick-infill wall and the other 3 frames with infill walls strengthened with various shaped of high strength-precast diagonal concrete panels. The prepared analytical models investigated under reversed-cyclic loading that resembles the seismic effect. As a result of the analytical study, the properties of the reinforced concrete frames, such as strength, rigidity, energy dissipation capacity, etc. were determined and the strengthened models were compared with the unstrengthened one having the same properties. As a result of this study, the contributions of precast diagonal concrete applied on the infill walls of the existing frame systems against seismic effects were introduced with its advantages and disadvantages.

Keywords: RC frame, seismic effect, infill wall, strengthening, precast diagonal concrete panel, pushover analysis

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Authors: Noel Jeygar Robert, V. K.Vidya

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Cognitive radio is a software-defined radio technology that allows cognitive users to operate on the vacant bands of spectrum allocated to licensed users. Cognitive radio plays a vital role in the efficient utilization of wireless radio spectrum available between cognitive users and licensed users without making any interference to licensed users. The spectrum allocation followed by spectrum sharing is done in a fashion where a cognitive user has to wait until spectrum holes are identified and allocated when the licensed user moves out of his own allocated spectrum. In this paper, we propose a self –coexistence strategy using bargaining and Cournot game model for achieving spectrum allocation in cognitive radio networks. The game-theoretic model analyses the behaviour of cognitive users in both cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios and provides an equilibrium level of spectrum allocation. Game-theoretic models such as bargaining game model and Cournot game model produce a balanced distribution of spectrum resources and energy consumption. Simulation results show that both game theories achieve better performance compared to other popular techniques

Keywords: cognitive radio, game theory, bargaining game, Cournot game

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Authors: Abdulrahman Alenezi

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This research paper investigates the surface heat transfer characteristics using computational fluid dynamics for orthogonal and inclined impinging jet. A jet Reynolds number (Rₑ) of 10,000, jet-to- plate spacing (H/D) of two and eight and two angles of impingement (α) of 45° and 90° (orthogonal) were employed in this study. An unconfined jet impinges steadily a constant temperature flat surface using air as working fluid. The numerical investigation is validated with an experimental study. This numerical study employs grid dependency investigation and four different types of turbulence models including the transition SSD to accurately predict the second local maximum in Nusselt number. A full analysis of the effect of both turbulence models and mesh size is reported. Numerical values showed excellent agreement with the experimental data for the case of orthogonal impingement. For the case of H/D =6 and α=45° a maximum percentage error of approximately 8.8% occurs of local Nusselt number at stagnation point. Experimental and numerical correlations are presented for four different cases

Keywords: turbulence model, inclined jet impingement, single jet impingement, heat transfer, stagnation point

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Authors: Ali Ben Abbes, Imed Riadh Farah

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Due to the considerable advances in Multi-Temporal Satellite Images (MTSI), remote sensing application became more accurate. Recently, many advances in modeling MTSI are developed using various models. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of studies using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). First of all, we provide a background of using HMM and their applications in this context. A comparison of the different works is discussed, and possible areas and challenges are highlighted. Secondly, we discussed the difference on vegetation monitoring as well as urban growth. Nevertheless, most research efforts have been used only stationary data. From another point of view, in this paper, we describe a new non-stationarity HMM, that is defined with a set of parts of the time series e.g. seasonal, trend and random. In addition, a new approach giving more accurate results and improve the applicability of the HMM in modeling a non-stationary data series. In order to assess the performance of the HMM, different experiments are carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI time series of the northwestern region of Tunisia and Landsat time series of tres Cantos-Madrid in Spain.

Keywords: multi-temporal satellite image, HMM , nonstationarity, vegetation, urban

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Authors: Ebrahim H. Kapeel, Ehab Safwat, Hossam Hendy, Ahmed M. Kamel, Yehia Z. Elhalwagy

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Motivated by the problem of the availability of high-fidelity flight simulation models for small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This paper focuses on the geometric-mass inertia modeling and the actuation system modeling for the small fixed-wing UAVs. The UAV geometric parameters for the body, wing, horizontal and vertical tail are physically measured. Pendulum experiment with high-grade sensors and data analysis using MATLAB is used to estimate the airplane moment of inertia (MOI) model. Finally, UAV’s actuation system is modeled by estimating each servo transfer function by using the system identification, which uses experimental measurement for input and output angles through using field-programmable gate array (FPGA). Experimental results for the designed models are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology. It also gives a very promising result to finalize the open-loop flight simulation model through modeling the propulsion system and the aerodynamic system.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicle, geometric-mass inertia model, system identification, Simulink

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Authors: Hongfang Ma, Mingchuan Zhou, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

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One dimensional pseudo-homogenous modeling has been performed for methanol steam reforming reactor. The results show that the models can well predict the industrial data. The reactor had minimum temperature along axial because of endothermic reaction. Hydrogen productions and temperature profiles along axial were investigated regarding operation conditions such as inlet mass flow rate and mass fraction of methanol, inlet temperature of external thermal oil. Low inlet mass flow rate of methanol, low inlet temperature, and high mass fraction of methanol decreased minimum temperature along axial. Low inlet mass flow rate of methanol, high mass fraction of methanol, and high inlet temperature of thermal oil made cold point forward. Low mass fraction, high mass flow rate, and high inlet temperature of thermal oil increased hydrogen production. One dimensional models can be a guide for industrial operation.

Keywords: reactor, modeling, methanol, steam reforming

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Liwen Hou

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The booming mobile business has been penetrating the taxi industry worldwide with P2P (peer to peer) taxi services, as an emerging business model, transforming the industry. Parallel with other mobile businesses, member recommendations and online reviews are believed to be very effective with regard to acquiring new users for P2P taxi services. Based on an empirical dataset of the taxi industry in China, this study aims to reveal which factors influence users’ recommendations and review-writing behaviors. Differing from the existing literature, this paper takes the taxi driver’s perspective into consideration and hence selects a group of variables related to the drivers. We built two models to reflect the factors that influence the number of recommendations and reviews posted on the platform (i.e., the app). Our models show that all factors, except the driver’s score, significantly influence the recommendation behavior. Likewise, only one factor, passengers’ bad reviews, is insignificant in generating more drivers’ reviews. In the conclusion, we summarize the findings and limitations of the research.

Keywords: online recommendation, P2P taxi service, review-writing, word of mouth

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Michael Shulman, Paige North, Benedikt Ahrens, Dmitris Tsementzis

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The Univalence Principle is the statement that equivalent mathematical structures are indistinguishable. We prove a general version of this principle that applies to all set-based, categorical, and higher-categorical structures defined in a non-algebraic and space-based style, as well as models of higher-order theories such as topological spaces. In particular, we formulate a general definition of indiscernibility for objects of any such structure, and a corresponding univalence condition that generalizes Rezk’s completeness condition for Segal spaces and ensures that all equivalences of structures are levelwise equivalences. Our work builds on Makkai’s First-Order Logic with Dependent Sorts, but is expressed in Voevodsky’s Univalent Foundations (UF), extending previous work on the Structure Identity Principle and univalent categories in UF. This enables indistinguishability to be expressed simply as identification, and yields a formal theory that is interpretable in classical homotopy theory, but also in other higher topos models. It follows that Univalent Foundations is a fully equivalence-invariant foundation for higher-categorical mathematics, as intended by Voevodsky.

Keywords: category theory, higher structures, inverse category, univalence

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

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The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

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Authors: Ganga K. V. Prakhya, V. Karthigeyan

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The paper describes the influences of the fluid and structure interaction in concrete structures that support large oil platforms in the North Sea. The dynamic interaction of the fluid both in 2D and 3D are demonstrated through a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis in the event of explosion following a gas leak inside of the concrete column. The structural response characteristics of the column in water under dynamic conditions are quite complex involving axial, radial and circumferential modes. Fluid structure interaction (FSI) modelling showed that there are some frequencies of the column in water which are not found for a column in air. For example, it was demonstrated that one of the axial breathing modes can never be simulated without the use of FSI models. The occurrence of a shift in magnitude and time of pressure from explosion following gas leak along the height of the shaft not only excited the modes of vibration involving breathing (axial), bending and squashing (radial) modes but also magnified the forces in the column. FSI models revealed that dynamic effects resulted in dynamic amplification of loads. The results are summarized from a detailed study that was carried out by the first author for the Offshore Safety Division of Health & Safety Executive United Kingdom.

Keywords: concrete, explosion, fluid structure interaction, offshore structures

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Nasser AlShawaaf

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While previous researchers have attempted to explain art museums commercialisation with reference to cultural policies, they have overlooked the phenomenon of globalisation. This study examines the causes and effects of globalisation of art museums in France. Building on arts literature, we show that the cultural policies of the French government since 1980s of cultural democratisation, cultural decentralisation, and implementing market principles on the cultural sector are leading to arts globalisation. Although globalisation is producing economic benefits and enhancing cultural reach, however, the damages include artistic values and creativity, cultural heritage and representation, and the museum itself. Art museums and host cities could overcome negative consequences through a hybrid collection display and develop local collections gradually.

Keywords: cultural policy, cultural decentralisation, cultural globalisation, art museums, contextual analysis, France

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Faramarz Khoshnoudian, Saeed Vosoughiyan

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The main goal of this article is to clarify the soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frame buildings which are rested on soft soil and equipped with viscous fluid dampers (VFDs). For this purpose, detailed structural models of a ten-story SMRF with VFDs excluding and including the SSI are constructed first. In order to simulate the dynamic response of the foundation, in this paper, the simple cone model is applied. Then, the nonlinear time-history analysis of the models is conducted using three kinds of earthquake excitations with different intensities. The analysis results have demonstrated that the SSI effects on the seismic performance of a structure equipped with VFDs and supported by rigid foundation on soft soil need to be considered. Also VFDs designed based on rigid foundation hypothesis fail to achieve the expected seismic objective while SSI goes into effect.

Keywords: nonlinear time-history analysis, soil-structure interaction, steel moment resisting frame building, viscous fluid dampers

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Authors: Chih-Hua Chang

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This study uses a three-dimensional (3D) fully nonlinear model to simulate the wave generation problem caused by the movement of the seabed. The numerical model is first simplified into two dimensions and then compared with the existing two-dimensional (2D) experimental data and the 2D numerical results of other shallow-water wave models. Results show that this model is different from the earlier shallow-water wave models, with the phase being closer to the experimental results of wave propagation. The results of this study are also compared with those of the 3D experimental results of other researchers. Satisfactory results can be obtained in both the waveform and the flow field. This study assesses the application of the model to simulate the wave caused by the circular (radius r0) terrain rising or falling (moving distance bm). The influence of wave-making parameters r0 and bm are discussed. This study determines that small-range (e.g., r0 = 2, normalized by the static water depth), rising, or sinking terrain will produce significant wave groups in the far field. For large-scale moving terrain (e.g., r0 = 10), uplift and deformation will potentially generate the leading solitary-like waves in the far field.

Keywords: seismic wave, wave generation, far-field waves, seabed deformation

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Authors: Nadjet Taoualit, Zoubida Chemat, Djamel-Eddine Hadj-Boussaad

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This study aims the removal of copper Cu (II) contained in wastewater by adsorption on a perfect synthesized mud. It is the materials Hydroxides Double Lamellar, HDL, prepared and synthesized by co-precipitation method at constant pH, which requires a simple titration assembly, with an inexpensive and available material in the laboratory, and also allows us better control of the composition of the reaction medium, and gives well crystallized products. A characterization of the adsorbent proved essential. Thus a range of physic-chemical analysis was performed including: FTIR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction… The adsorption of copper ions was investigated in dispersed medium (batch). A systematic study of various parameters (amount of support, contact time, initial copper concentration, temperature, pH…) was performed. Adsorption kinetic data were tested using pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order, Bangham's equation and intra-particle diffusion models. The equilibrium data were analyzed using Langmuir, Freundlich, Tempkin and other isotherm models at different doses of HDL. The thermodynamics parameters were evaluated at different temperatures. The results have established good potentiality for the HDL to be used as a sorbent for the removal of Copper from wastewater.

Keywords: adsoption, copper, HDL, isotherm

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Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

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Selecting appropriate patients for surgery is one of the main issues in thoracic surgery (TS). Both short-term and long-term risks and benefits of surgery must be considered in the patient selection criteria. There are some limitations in the existing datasets of TS patients because of missing values of attributes and imbalanced distribution of survival classes. In this study, a novel ensemble architecture of deep learning networks is proposed based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to deal with imbalance datasets. The categorical and numerical features are split using different layers with ability to shrink the unnecessary features. Then, after extracting the insight from the raw features, a novel biased-kernel layer is applied to reinforce the gradient of the minority class and cause the network to be trained better comparing the current methods. Finally, the performance and advantages of our proposed model over the existing models are examined for predicting patient survival after thoracic surgery using a real-life clinical data for lung cancer patients.

Keywords: deep learning, ensemble models, imbalanced classification, lung cancer, TS patient selection

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Authors: S. De Curtis, L. Delle Rose, S. Moretti, K. Yagyu

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Supersymmetry and compositeness are the two prevalent paradigms providing both a solution to the hierarchy problem and motivation for a light Higgs boson state. An open door towards the solution is found in the context of 2-Higgs Doublet Models (2HDMs), which are necessary to supersymmetry and natural within compositeness in order to enable Electro-Weak Symmetry Breaking. In scenarios of compositeness, the two isospin doublets arise as pseudo Nambu-Goldstone bosons from the breaking of SO(6). By calculating the Higgs potential at one-loop level through the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism from the explicit breaking of the global symmetry induced by the partial compositeness of fermions and gauge bosons, we derive the phenomenological properties of the Higgs states and highlight the main signatures of this Composite 2-Higgs Doublet Model at the Large Hadron Collider. These include modifications to the SM-like Higgs couplings as well as production and decay channels of heavier Higgs bosons. We contrast the properties of this composite scenario to the well-known ones established in supersymmetry, with the MSSM being the most notorious example. We show how 2HDM spectra of masses and couplings accessible at the Large Hadron Collider may allow one to distinguish between the two paradigms.

Keywords: beyond the standard model, composite Higgs, supersymmetry, Two-Higgs Doublet Model

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Authors: Marina Sofia, Alexios Giannakopoulos, Antonia Touloudi, Dimitris C Chatzopoulos, Zoi Athanasakopoulou, Vassiliki Spyrou, Charalambos Billinis

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Fertility of dairy cattle can be affected by heat stress when the ambient temperature increases above 30°C and the relative humidity ranges from 35% to 50%. The present study was conducted on dairy cattle farms during summer months in Greece and aimed to identify the serological profile against pathogens that could affect fertility and to associate the positive serological results at herd level with temperature factors. A total of 323 serum samples were collected from clinically healthy dairy cows of 8 herds, located in Central and Northern Greece. ELISA tests were performed to detect antibodies against selected pathogens that affect fertility, namely Chlamydophila abortus, Coxiella burnetii, Neospora caninum, Toxoplasma gondii and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis Virus (IBRV). Eleven climatic variables were derived from the WorldClim version 1.4. and ArcGIS V.10.1 software was used for analysis of the spatial information. Five different MaxEnt models were applied to associate the temperature variables with the locations of seropositive Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV herds (one for each pathogen). The logistic outputs were used for the interpretation of the results. ROC analyses were performed to evaluate the goodness of fit of the models’ predictions. Jackknife tests were used to identify the variables with a substantial contribution to each model. The seropositivity rates of pathogens varied among the 8 herds (0.85-4.76% for Chl. abortus, 4.76-62.71% for N. caninum, 3.8-43.47% for C. burnetii, 4.76-39.28% for T. gondii and 47.83-78.57% for IBRV). The variables of annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month gave a contribution to all five models. The regularized training gains, the training AUCs and the unregularized training gains were estimated. The mean diurnal range gave the highest gain when used in isolation and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the two models for seropositive Chl.abortus and IBRV herds. The annual temperature range increased the gain when used alone and decreased the gain the most when it was omitted in the models for seropositive C. burnetii, N. caninum and T. gondii herds. In conclusion, antibodies against Chl. abortus, C. burnetii, N. caninum, T. gondii and IBRV were detected in most herds suggesting circulation of pathogens that could cause infertility. The results of the spatial analyses demonstrated that the annual temperature range, mean diurnal range and maximum temperature of the warmest month could affect positively the possible pathogens’ presence. Acknowledgment: This research has been co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE (project code: T1EDK-01078).

Keywords: dairy cows, seropositivity, spatial analysis, temperature factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

Procedia PDF Downloads 269