Search results for: financial planning

Authors: Batuhan Kocaoglu

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Nowadays digital transformation is a hot topic both in service and production business. For the companies who want to stay alive in the following years, they should change how they do their business. Industry leaders started to improve their ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) like backbone technologies to digital advances such as analytics, mobility, sensor-embedded smart devices, AI (Artificial Intelligence) and more. Selecting the appropriate technology for the related business problem also is a hot topic. Besides this, to operate in the modern environment and fulfill rapidly changing customer expectations, a digital transformation of the business is required and change the way the business runs, affect how they do their business. Even the digital transformation term is trendy the literature is limited and covers just the philosophy instead of a solid implementation plan. Current studies urge firms to start their digital transformation, but few tell us how to do. The huge investments scare companies with blur definitions and concepts. The aim of this paper to solidify the steps of the digital transformation and offer a roadmap for the companies and academicians. The proposed roadmap is developed based upon insights from the literature review, semi-structured interviews, and expert views to explore and identify crucial steps. We introduced our roadmap in the form of 8 main steps: Awareness; Planning; Operations; Implementation; Go-live; Optimization; Autonomation; Business Transformation; including a total of 11 sub-steps with examples. This study also emphasizes four dimensions of the digital transformation mainly: Readiness assessment; Building organizational infrastructure; Building technical infrastructure; Maturity assessment. Finally, roadmap corresponds the steps with three main terms used in digital transformation literacy as Digitization; Digitalization; and Digital Transformation. The resulted model shows that 'business process' and 'organizational issues' should be resolved before technology decisions and 'digitization'. Companies can start their journey with the solid steps, using the proposed roadmap to increase the success of their project implementation. Our roadmap is also adaptable for relevant Industry 4.0 and enterprise application projects. This roadmap will be useful for companies to persuade their top management for investments. Our results can be used as a baseline for further researches related to readiness assessment and maturity assessment studies.

Keywords: digital transformation, digital business, ERP, roadmap

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Authors: K. C. Tanuja, Mamatha P. Raj

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Urbanisation is happening rapidly all over the world. As population increasing in the urban settlements, its required to provide quality of life to all the inhabitants who live in. Urban design is a place making strategic planning. Urban design principles promote visualising any place environmentally, socially and economically viable. Urban design strategies include building mass, transit development, economic viability and sustenance and social aspects.

Keywords: livable streets, social interaction, pedestrian use, urban design

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Authors: C.W. Kan

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Softening applied on textile products based on several reasons. First, the synthetic detergent removes natural oils and waxes, thus lose the softness. Second, compensate the harsh handle of resin finishing. Also, imitate natural fibres and improve the comfort of fabric are the reasons to apply softening. There are different types of softeners for softening finishing of textiles, nonionic softener, anionic softener, cationic softener and silicone softener. The aim of this study is to illustrate the proper application of different softeners and their final softening effect in textiles. The results could also provide guidance note to the students in learning this topic. Acknowledgment: Authors would like to thank the financial support from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University for this work.

Keywords: learning materials, softening, textiles, effect

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Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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Authors: Kevin F. Hsu, Alvin Chua, Sarah X. Lin

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As a multilingual society, Singaporean names for different parts of the city have changed over time. Residents included Indigenous Malays, dialect-speakers from China, European settler-colonists, and Tamil-speakers from South India. Each group would name locations in their own languages. Today, as ancestral tongues are increasingly supplanted by English, contemporary Singaporeans’ understanding of once-common place names is disappearing. After demolition or redevelopment, some urban places will only exist in archival records or in human memory. United Nations conferences on the standardization of geographic names have called attention to how place names relate to identity, well-being, and a sense of belonging. The Singapore Place-Naming Project responds to these imperatives by capturing past and present place names through digitizing historical maps, mining archival records, and applying selective crowd-sourcing to trace the evolution of place names throughout the city. The project ensures that both formal and vernacular geographical names remain accessible to historians, city planners, and the public. The project is compiling a gazetteer, a geospatial archive of placenames, with streets, buildings, landmarks, and other points of interest (POI) appearing in the historic maps and planning documents of Singapore, currently held by the National Archives of Singapore, the National Library Board, university departments, and the Urban Redevelopment Authority. To create a spatial layer of information, the project links each place name to either a geo-referenced point, line segment, or polygon, along with the original source material in which the name appears. This record is supplemented by crowd-sourced contributions from civil service officers and heritage specialists, drawing from their collective memory to (1) define geospatial boundaries of historic places that appear in past documents, but maybe unfamiliar to users today, and (2) identify and record vernacular place names not captured in formal planning documents. An intuitive interface allows participants to demarcate feature classes, vernacular phrasings, time periods, and other knowledge related to historical or forgotten spaces. Participants are stratified into age bands and ethnicity to improve representativeness. Future iterations could allow additional public contributions. Names reveal meanings that communities assign to each place. While existing historical maps of Singapore allow users to toggle between present-day and historical raster files, this project goes a step further by adding layers of social understanding and planning documents. Tracking place names illuminates linguistic, cultural, commercial, and demographic shifts in Singapore, in the context of transformations of the urban environment. The project also demonstrates how a moderated, selectively crowd-sourced effort can solicit useful geospatial data at scale, sourced from different generations, and at higher granularity than traditional surveys, while mitigating negative impacts of unmoderated crowd-sourcing. Stakeholder agencies believe the project will achieve several objectives, including Supporting heritage conservation and public education; Safeguarding intangible cultural heritage; Providing historical context for street, place or development-renaming requests; Enhancing place-making with deeper historical knowledge; Facilitating emergency and social services by tagging legal addresses to vernacular place names; Encouraging public engagement with heritage by eliciting multi-stakeholder input.

Keywords: collective memory, crowd-sourced, digital heritage, geospatial, geographical names, linguistic heritage, place-naming, Singapore, Southeast Asia

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Authors: Kalina Alina Aidarovna, Khayrullina Yulia Sergeevna

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The question of forming quality housing and living environment remains a vexed problem in the current situation of high-rise apartment building in big cities of Russia. At this start up stage of the modern so-called "mass housing" market it needs to identify key quality characteristics on a different scale from apartments to the district. This paper describes the methodology of qualitative assessment of modern mass housing construction, made on the basis of the ITMO university in cooperation with the institute of spatial planning "Urbanika," based on the case study of St. Petersburg’s residential mass housing built in 2011-2014. The methodology of the study of housing and living environment goes back to the native and foreign urbanists of 60s - 80s, such Jane Jacobs, Jan Gehl, Oscar Newman, Krasheninnikov, as well as Sommer, Stools, Kohnen and Sherrod, Krasilnikova, Sychev, Zhdanov, Tinyaeva considering spatial features of living environment in a wide range of its characteristics (environmental control, territorial and personalization, privacy, etc.). Assessment is carrying out on the proposed system of criteria developed for each residential environment scale-district, quarter, courtyard, building surrounding grounds, houses, and flats. Thus the objects of study are planning unit of residential development areas (residential area, neighborhood, quarter) residential units areas (living artist, a house), and households (apartments) consisting of residential units. As a product of identified methodology, after the results of case studies of more than 700 residential complexes in St. Petersburg, we intend the creation of affordable online resource that would allow conducting a detailed qualitative evaluation or comparative characteristics of residential complexes for all participants of the construction market-developers, designers, realtors and buyers. Thereby the main objective of the rating may be achieved to improve knowledge, requirements, and demand for quality housing and living environment among the major stakeholders of the construction market.

Keywords: methodology of living environment, qualitative assessment of mass housing, scale-district, vexed problem

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Authors: Paolo Guzzini, Emad Samuel M. Ebeid

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Bridges and Railways are critical infrastructures. Ensuring safety for transports using such assets is a primary goal as it directly impacts the lives of people. By the way, improving safety could require increased investments in O&M, and therefore optimizing resource usage for asset maintenance becomes crucial. Drones4Safety (D4S), a European project funded under the H2020 Research and Innovation Action (RIA) program, aims to increase the safety of the European civil transport by building a system that relies on 3 main pillars: • Drones operating autonomously in swarm mode; • Drones able to recharge themselves using inductive phenomena produced by transmission lines in the nearby of bridges and railways assets to be inspected; • Data acquired that are analyzed with AI-empowered algorithms for defect detection This paper describes the business model behind this disruptive project. The Business Model is structured in 2 parts: • The first part is focused on the design of the business model Canvas, to explain the value provided by the Drone4safety project; • The second part aims at defining a detailed financial analysis, with the target of calculating the IRR (Internal Return rate) and the NPV (Net Present Value) of the investment in a 7 years plan (2 years to run the project + 5 years post-implementation). As to the financial analysis 2 different points of view are assumed: • Point of view of the Drones4safety company in charge of designing, producing, and selling the new system; • Point of view of the Utility company that will adopt the new system in its O&M practices; Assuming the point of view of the Drones4safety company 3 scenarios were considered: • Selling the drones > revenues will be produced by the drones’ sales; • Renting the drones > revenues will be produced by the rental of the drones (with a time-based model); • Selling the data acquisition service > revenues will be produced by the sales of pictures acquired by drones; Assuming the point of view of a utility adopting the D4S system, a 4th scenario was analyzed taking into account the decremental costs related to the change of operation and maintenance practices. The paper will show, for both companies, what are the key parameters affecting most of the business model and which are the sustainable scenarios.

Keywords: a swarm of drones, AI, bridges, railways, drones4safety company, utility companies

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Authors: Muge Unal, Cengiz Uslu, Mehmet Faruk Altunkasa

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Walkability relates to the ability of the places to connect people with varied destinations within a reasonable amount of time and effort, and to offer visual interest in journeys throughout the network. So, the good quality of the physical environment and arrangement of walkway and sidewalk appear to be more crucial in influencing the pedestrian route choice. Also, proximity, connectivity, and accessibility are significant factor for walkability in terms of an equal opportunity for using public spaces. As a result, there are two important points for walkability. Firstly, the place should have a well-planned street network for accessible and secondly facilitate the pedestrian need for comfort. In this respect, this study aims to examine the both physical and bioclimatic comfort levels of the current condition of pedestrian route with reference to design criteria of a street to access the urban green spaces. These aspects have been identified as the main indicators for walkable streets such as continuity, materials, slope, bioclimatic condition, walkway width, greenery, and surface. Additionally, the aim was to identify the factors that need to be considered in future guidelines and policies for planning and design in urban spaces especially streets. Adana city was chosen as a study area. Adana is a province of Turkey located in south-central Anatolia. This study workflow can be summarized in four stages: (1) environmental and physical data were collected by referred to literature and used in a weighted criteria method to determine the importance level of these data , (2) environmental characteristics of pedestrian routes gained from survey studies are evaluated to hierarchies these criteria of the collected information, (3) and then each pedestrian routes will have a score that provides comfortable access to the park, (4) finally, the comfortable routes to park will be mapped using GIS. It is hoped that this study will provide an insight into future development planning and design to create a friendly and more comfort street environment for the users.

Keywords: comfort level, geographical information system (GIS), walkability, weighted criteria method

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Authors: Raymond Treacy, Paul Humphreys, Ronan McIvor, Trevor Cadden, Alan McKittrick

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This study employed event study methodology to examine the role of institutions, resources and dynamic capabilities in the relationship between the Environmental Management System ISO 14001 adoption and firm performance. Utilising financial data from 140 ISO 14001 certified firms and 320 non-certified firms, the results of the study suggested that the UK and Irish manufacturers were not implementing ISO 14001 solely to gain legitimacy. In contrast, the results demonstrated that firms were fully integrating the ISO 14001 standard within their operations as certified firms were able to improve both financial and operating performance when compared to non-certified firms. However, while there were significant and long lasting improvements for employee productivity, manufacturing cost efficiency, return on assets and sales turnover, the sample firms operating cycle and fixed asset efficiency displayed evidence of diminishing returns in the long-run, underlying the observation that no operating advantage based on incremental improvements can be everlasting. Hence, there is an argument for investing in dynamic capabilities which help renew and refresh the resource base and help the firm adapt to changing environments. Indeed, the results of the regression analysis suggest that dynamic capabilities for innovation acted as a moderator in the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. This, in turn, will have a significant and symbiotic influence on sustainability practices within the participating organisations. The study not only provides new and original insights, but demonstrates pragmatically how firms can take advantage of environmental management systems as a moderator to significantly enhance firm performance. However, while it was shown that firm innovation aided both short term and long term ROA performance, adaptive market capabilities only aided firms in the short-term at the marketing strategy deployment stage. Finally, the results have important implications for firms operating in an economic recession as the results suggest that firms should scale back investment in R&D while operating in an economic downturn. Conversely, under normal trading conditions, consistent and long term investments in R&D was found to moderate the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. Hence, the results of the study have important implications for academics and management alike.

Keywords: supply chain management, environmental management systems, quality management, sustainability, firm performance

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Authors: Rosina U. Ndukwe, Diane Crone, Nick Cavill

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Active transport (i.e. walking to school, cycle to work schemes etc.) is an effective approach with multiple social and environmental benefits for transforming urban environments into active urban environments. Although walking and cycling often remain on the margins of urban planning and infrastructure, there are new approaches emerging, along with policy intervention relevant for the creation of sustainable urban active environments conductive to active travel, increasing physical activity levels of involved communities and supporting social inclusion through more active participation. SPAcE - Supporting Policy and Action for Active Environments is a 3 year Erasmus+ project that aims to integrate active transport programmes into public policy across the EU. SPAcE focuses on cities/towns with recorded low physical activity levels to support the development of active environments in 5 sites: Latvia [Tukums], Italy [Palermo], Romania [Brasov], Spain [Castilla-La Mancha] and Greece [Trikala]. The first part of the project involved a review of good practice including case studies from across the EU and project partner countries. This has resulted in the first output from the project, an evidence of good practice summary with case study examples. In the second part of the project, working groups across the 5 sites have carried out co-production to develop Urban Active Environments (UActivE) Action Plans aimed at influencing policy and practice for increasing physical activity primarily through the use of cycling and walking. Action plans are based on international evidence and guidance for healthy urban planning. Remaining project partners include Universities (Gloucestershire, Oxford, Zurich, Thessaly) and Fit for Life programme (National physical activity promotion program, Finland) who provide support and advice incorporating current evidence, healthy urban planning and mentoring. Cooperation and co-production with public health professionals, local government officers, education authorities and transport agencies has been a key approach of the project. The third stage of the project has involved training partners in the WHO HEAT tool to support the implementation of the Action Plans. Project results show how multi-agency, transnational collaboration can produce real-life Action Plans in five EU countries, based on published evidence, real-life experience, consultation and collaborative working with other organisations across the EU. Learning from the processes adopted within this project will demonstrate how public health, local government and transport agencies across the EU, can work together to create healthy environments that have the aim of facilitating active behaviour, even in times of constrained public budgets. The SPAcE project has captured both the challenges and solutions for increasing population physical activity levels, health and wellness in urban spaces and translating evidence into policy and practice ensuring innovation at policy level. Funding acknowledgment: SPAcE (www.activeenvironments.eu) is co-funded by the Sport action of the ERASMUS+ programme.

Keywords: action plans, active transport, SPAcE, UActivE urban active environments, walking and cycling

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Authors: Ayodele Ajayi, John Ajayi

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This paper investigates the effect of corporate governance with a view to determining the relationship between board size and bank performance. Data for the study were obtained from the audited financial statements of five sampled banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Panel data technique was adopted and analysis was carried out with the use of multiple regression and pooled ordinary least square. Results from the study show that the larger the board size, the greater the profit implying that corporate governance is positively correlated with bank performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, banks performance, board size, pooled data

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Authors: Mary L. G. S. Senna, Veruska C. Dutra, Afonso R. Aquino

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The study is in application and analysis of two tourism management tools that can contribute to making public managers decision: the Barometer of Tourism Sustainability (BTS) and the Ecological Footprint (EF). The results have shown that BTS allows you to have an integrated view of the tourism system, awakening to the need for planning of appropriate actions so that it can achieve the positive scale proposed (potentially sustainable). Already the methodology of ecological tourism footprint is an important tool to measure potential impacts generated by tourism to tourist reality.

Keywords: barometer of tourism sustainability, ecological footprint of tourism, Jalapão/Brazil, sustainable tourism

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Authors: Tonya P. Bowers

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Background: The community/patient-focused quality improvement (QI) project has resolved a clinical problem using a quantitative design evaluating behavior change practices in a convenience sample from a multi-cultural congregation in a faith-based setting. AD is a legal document that speaks for the patient when they are unable to speak for themselves. The AD provides detailed information regarding critical medical decisions on behalf of the patient if they’re unable to make decisions themselves. The goal of an AD is to improve EOL care renderings that align with the patient’s desires. The AD diminishes anxiety and stress associated with making difficult EOL care decisions for patients and their families. Method: The project has two intervention strategies: pre-intervention and post-intervention formative surveys and a final summative survey. Most of the data collection takes place during implementation. The Let’s Talk About It Program utilized an online meeting platform for presentation. Participants were asked to complete informed consent and surveys via an online portal. Education included slide presentation, Advance Directive demonstration, video clips, discussions and 1:1 assistance with AD completion with a project manager. Results: Considering the overwhelming likelihood responses where 87.5% identified they “definitely would” hold an End-Of-Life conversation with their healthcare provider or family, and 81.25% indicated their likelihood that they “definitely would” complete an advance directive. In addition, the final summative post-intervention survey (n-14) also demonstrated an overwhelming 93% positive response. Which undoubtedly demonstrates favorable outcomes for the project. Conclusion: the Let’s Talk About It Program demonstrated effectiveness in improving participants' attitudes and acceptance towards Advance Directives and expanding End-of-Life care discussions. Emphasis on program sustainment within the church is imperative in fostering continued awareness and improved health outcomes for the local community with low health literacy.

Keywords: advance directive, end of life, advance care planning, palliative care, low health literacy, faith-based

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Jiri Barta

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This paper deals with the prevention and management of emergencies. It focuses on the protection of assets of the critical infrastructure entities that are important to preventing, preparing for and management of emergencies and crisis situations. The paper defines assets and specifies their use and place in the process of crisis management and planning. Critical assets that are protected from the negative effects of emergency or crisis situation we can use in crisis management and response. This basic rule applies mainly to the substantial assets used in the protection of critical infrastructure processes.

Keywords: asset, continuity, critical infrastructure, crisis management process

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Authors: Corina E. Niculaescu, Ivan Sangiorgi, Adrian R. Bell

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been life-changing in many aspects of people’s daily and social lives, but has it also changed attitudes towards investments? This paper explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on retail investors’ levels of investments in the U.S. during the first COVID-19 wave in summer 2020. This is an unprecedented health crisis, which could lead to changes in investment behavior, including irrational behavior in retail investors. As such, this study aims to inform policymakers of what happened to investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic so that they can protect retail investors during extreme events like a global health crisis. The study aims to answer two research questions. First, was the level of investments affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and if so, why? Second, how were investments affected by retail investors’ personal experience with COVID-19? The research analysis is based on primary survey data collected on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform from a representative sample of U.S. respondents. Responses were collected between the 15th of July and 28th of August 2020 from 1,148 U.S. retail investors who hold mutual fund investments and a savings account. The research explores whether being affected by COVID-19, change in the level of savings, and risk capacity can explain the change in the level of investments by using regression analysis. The dependent variable is changed in investments measured as decrease, no change, and increase. For this reason, the methodology used is ordered probit regression models. The results show that retail investors in the U.S. increased their investments during the first wave of COVID-19, which is unexpected as investors are usually more cautious in crisis times. Moreover, the study finds that those who were affected personally by COVID-19 (e.g., tested positive) were more likely to increase their investments, which is irrational behavior and contradicts expectations. An increase in the level of savings and risk capacity was also associated with increased investments. Overall, the findings show that having personal experience with a health crisis can have an impact on one’s investment decisions as well. Those findings are important for both retail investors and policymakers, especially now that online trading platforms have made trading easily accessible to everyone. There are risks and potential irrational behaviors associated with investment decisions during times of crisis, and it is important that retail investors are aware of them before making financial decisions.

Keywords: COVID-19, financial decision-making, health crisis retail investors, survey

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

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In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.

Keywords: lotteries, loyalty programs, competitions, bonus sales, rebate campaigns

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Authors: Maali Kachouri, Anis Jarboui

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We focus on the causal relationship between governance and information transparency as well as interrelation among the various governance mechanisms. This paper employs a simultaneous equations approach to show this relationship in the Tunisian context. Based on an 8-year dataset, our sample covers 28 listed companies over 2006-2013. Our findings suggest that internal and external governance mechanisms are interdependent. Moreover, in order to analyze the causal effect between information transparency and governance mechanisms, we found evidence that information transparency tends to increase good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: simultaneous equations approach, transparency, causal relationship, corporate governance

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Authors: Aisha Al-Baroud

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The United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC), Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) and Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) cooperated in a joint project to undertake comprehensive and collaborative efforts to remediate 26 million m3 of crude oil contaminated soil that had resulted from the Gulf War in 1990/1991. These efforts are referred to as the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). KOC has developed a Total Remediation Solution (TRS) for KERP, which will guide the Remediation projects, comprises of alternative remedial solutions with treatment techniques inclusive of limited landfills for non-treatable soil materials disposal, and relies on treating certain ranges of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH) contamination with the most appropriate remediation techniques. The KERP Remediation projects will be implemented within the KOC’s oilfields in North and South East Kuwait. The objectives of this remediation project is to clear land for field development and treat all the oil contaminated features (dry oil lakes, wet oil lakes, and oil contaminated piles) through TRS plan to optimize the treatment processes and minimize the volume of contaminated materials to be placed into landfills. The treatment strategy will comprise of Excavation and Transportation (E&T) of oil contaminated soils from contaminated land to remote treatment areas and to use appropriate remediation technologies or a combination of treatment technologies to achieve remediation target criteria (RTC). KOC has awarded five mega projects to achieve the same and is currently in the execution phase. As a part of the company’s commitment to environment and for the fulfillment of the mandatory HSSEMS procedures, all the Remediation contractors needs to report waste generation data from the various project activities on a monthly basis. Data on waste generation is collected in order to implement cost-efficient and sustainable waste management operations. Data analytics approaches can be built on the top of the data to produce more detailed, and in-time waste generation information for the basis of waste management and collection. The results obtained highlight the potential of advanced data analytic approaches in producing more detailed waste generation information for planning and optimization of waste collection and recycling.

Keywords: waste, tencnolgies, KERP, data, soil

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Authors: Sansanee Sansiribhan, Anusorn Rattanathanaophat, Chirapan Nuengchaknin

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The potential feasibility of a 9.5 MWe capacity rice straw power plant project in Thailand was studied by evaluating the rice straw resource. The result showed that Thailand had a high rice straw biomass potential at the provincial level, especially, the provinces in the central, northeastern and western Thailand, which could feasibly develop plants. The economic feasibility of project was also investigated. The financial feasibility is also evaluated based on two important factors in the project, i.e., NPV ≥ 0 and IRR ≥ 11%. It was found that the rice straw power plant project at 9.5 MWe was financially feasible with the cost of fuel in the range of 30.6-47.7 USD/t.

Keywords: power plant, project feasibility, rice straw, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar

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Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization

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Authors: Hachmi Ben Ameur, Jean Luc Prigent

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We propose an extension of the CPPI method, which is based on conditional floors. In this framework, we examine in particular the TIPP and margin based strategies. These methods allow keeping part of the past gains and protecting the portfolio value against future high drawdowns of the financial market. However, as for the standard CPPI method, the investor can benefit from potential market rises. To control the risk of such strategies, we introduce both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures. For each of these criteria, we show that the conditional floor must be higher than a lower bound. We illustrate these results, for a quite general ARCH type model, including the EGARCH (1,1) as a special case.

Keywords: CPPI, conditional floor, ARCH, VaR, expected ehortfall

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Authors: Aisling Gough, Ruth F. Hunter, Jianjun Tang, Sarah F. Brennan, Oliver Smith, Mark A. Tully, Chris Patterson, Alberto Longo, George Hutchinson, Lindsay Prior, David French, Jean Adams, Emma McIntosh, Frank Kee

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Background: As a large proportion of the UK workforce is employed in sedentary occupations, worksite interventions have the potential to contribute significantly to the health of the population. The UK Government is currently encouraging the use of financial incentives to promote healthier lifestyles but there is a dearth of evidence regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of incentive schemes to promote physical activity in the workplace. Methods: A large cluster RCT is currently underway, incorporating nested behavioural economic field experiments and process evaluation, to evaluate the effectiveness of a Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme. Office-based employees were recruited from large public sector organisations in Lisburn and Belfast (Northern Ireland) and randomised to an Intervention or Control group. Participants in the Intervention Group were encouraged to take part in 150 minutes of physical activity per week through provision of financial incentives (retailer vouchers) to those who met physical activity targets throughout the course of the 6 month intervention. Minutes of physical activity were monitored when participants passed by sensors (holding a keyfob) placed along main walking routes, parks and public transport stops nearby their workplace. Participants in the Control Group will complete the same outcome assessments (waiting-list control). The primary outcome is steps per day measured via pedometers (7 days). Secondary outcomes include health and wellbeing (Short Form-8, EuroQol-5D-5L, Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well Being Scale), and work absenteeism and presenteeism. Data will be collected at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Information on PAL card & website usage, voucher downloads and redemption of vouchers will also be collected as part of a comprehensive process evaluation. Results: In total, 853 participants have been recruited from 9 workplaces in Lisburn, 12 buildings within the Stormont Estate, Queen’s University Belfast and Belfast City Hospital. Participants have been randomised to intervention and control groups. Baseline and 6-month data for the Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme has been collected. Findings regarding the effectiveness of the intervention from the 6-month follow-up data will be presented. Discussion: This study will address the gap in knowledge regarding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a workplace-based financial incentive scheme to promote a healthier lifestyle. As the UK workforce is increasingly sedentary, workplace-based physical activity interventions have significant potential in terms of encouraging employees to partake in physical activity during the working day which could lead to substantial improvements in physical activity levels overall. Implications: If a workplace based physical activity intervention such as this proves to be both effective and cost-effective, there is great potential to contribute significantly to the health and wellbeing of the workforce in the future. Workplace-based physical activity interventions have the potential to improve the physical and mental health of employees which may in turn lead to economic benefits for the employer, such as reduction in rates of absenteeism and increased productivity.

Keywords: behaviour change, cluster randomised controlled trial, loyalty scheme, physical activity

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Authors: Kamal Kaushik, Trisha, Dandapni, Sambit Nanda, A. Mukherjee, S. Pradhan

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INTRODUCTION: As complexity in radiotherapy practice and processes are increasing, there is a need to assure quality control to a greater extent. At present, no international literature available with regards to the optimal quality control indicators for radiotherapy; moreover, few clinical audits have been conducted in the field of radiotherapy. The primary aim is to improve the processes that directly impact clinical outcomes for patients in terms of patient safety and quality of care. PROCEDURE: A team of an Oncologist, a Medical Physicist and a Radiation Therapist was formed for weekly clinical audits of patient’s undergoing radiotherapy audits The stages for audits include Pre planning audits, Simulation, Planning, Daily QA, Implementation and Execution (with image guidance). Errors in all the parts of the chain were evaluated and recorded for the development of further departmental protocols for radiotherapy. EVALUATION: The errors at various stages of radiotherapy chain were evaluated and recorded for comparison before starting the clinical audits in the department of radiotherapy and after starting the audits. It was also evaluated to find the stage in which maximum errors were recorded. The clinical audits were used to structure standard protocols (in the form of checklist) in department of Radiotherapy, which may lead to further reduce the occurrences of clinical errors in the chain of radiotherapy. RESULTS: The aim of this study is to perform a comparison between number of errors in different part of RT chain in two groups (A- Before Audit and B-After Audit). Group A: 94 pts. (48 males,46 female), Total no. of errors in RT chain:19 (9 needed Resimulation) Group B: 94 pts. (61 males,33 females), Total no. of errors in RT chain: 8 (4 needed Resimulation) CONCLUSION: After systematic periodic clinical audits percentage of error in radiotherapy process reduced more than 50% within 2 months. There is a great need in improving quality control in radiotherapy, and the role of clinical audits can only grow. Although clinical audits are time-consuming and complex undertakings, the potential benefits in terms of identifying and rectifying errors in quality control procedures are potentially enormous. Radiotherapy being a chain of various process. There is always a probability of occurrence of error in any part of the chain which may further propagate in the chain till execution of treatment. Structuring departmental protocols and policies helps in reducing, if not completely eradicating occurrence of such incidents.

Keywords: audit, clinical, radiotherapy, improving functionality

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Authors: L. Richter, J. Lübkemann, P. Nyhuis

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In order to remain competitive in what is a turbulent environment; businesses must be able to react rapidly to change. The past response to volatile market conditions was to introduce an element of flexibility to production. Nowadays, what is often required is a redesign of factory structures in order to cope with the state of constant flux. The Institute of Production Systems and Logistics is currently developing a descriptive and causal model for the redesign of plant structures as part of an ongoing research project. This article presents the first research findings attained in devising this model.

Keywords: change driven factory redesign, factory planning, plant structure, flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Abdulkarem Qasem Dammag, Basema Qasim Dammag, Jian Dai

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Change in Land use and Land cover (LU/LC) has a profound impact on the area's natural, economic, and ecological development, and the search for drivers of land cover change is one of the fundamental issues of LU/LC change. The study aimed to assess the temporal and Spatio-temporal dynamics of LU/LC in the past and to predict the future using Landsat images by exploring the characteristics of different LU/LC types. Spatio-temporal patterns of LU/LC change in Ibb Governorate, Yemen, were analyzed based on RS and GIS from 1990, 2005, and 2020. A socioeconomic survey and key informant interviews were used to assess potential drivers of LU/LC. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the total area of vegetation land decreased by 5.3%, while the area of barren land, grassland, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 2.7%, 1.6%, 1.04%, and 0.06%, respectively. Based on socio-economic surveys and key informant interviews, natural factors had a significant and long-term impact on land change. In contrast, site construction and socio-economic factors were the main driving forces affecting land change in a short time scale. The analysis results have been linked to the CA-Markov Land Use simulation and forecasting model for the years 2035 and 2050. The simulation results revealed from the period 2020 to 2050, the trend of dynamic changes in land use, where the total area of barren land decreased by 7.0% and grassland by 0.2%, while the vegetation land, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 4.6%, 2.6%, and 0.1 %, respectively. Overall, these findings provide LULC's past and future trends and identify drivers, which can play an important role in sustainable land use planning and management by balancing and coordinating urban growth and land use and can also be used at the regional level in different levels to provide as a reference. In addition, the results provide scientific guidance to government departments and local decision-makers in future land-use planning through dynamic monitoring of LU/LC change.

Keywords: LU/LC change, CA-Markov model, driving forces, change detection, LU/LC change simulation

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Authors: Aparna Soni

Abstract:

The much-celebrated foretold story of Indian city engines driving the growth of India has been scrutinized to have serious consequences. A wide spectrum of scholarship has brought to light the un-equalizing effects and the need to adopt a rights-based approach to development planning in India. Notably, these concepts and discourses ubiquitously entail the study of land struggles in the making of Urban. In fact, the very progression of the primitive accumulation theory to accumulation by dispossession, followed by ‘dispossession without development,’ thereafter Development without dispossession and now as Dispossession by financialization noticeably the last three developing in a span of mere three decades, is evidence enough to trace the centrality and evolving role of land in the making of urban India. India, in the last decade, has seen its regional governments actively experimenting with alternative models of land assembly (Amaravati and Delhi land pooling models, the loudly advertised ones). These are publicized as a replacement to the presumably cost and time antagonistic, prone to litigation land acquisition act of 2013. It has been observed that most of the literature treats these models as a generic large bracket of land expropriation and do not, in particular, try to differentially analyse to granularly find a pattern in these alternatives. To cater to this gap, this research comparatively studies these alternative land, assembly models. It categorises them based on their basic architecture, spatial and sectoral application, and governance frameworks. It is found that these alternatives are ad-hoc and fragmented pieces of legislation. These are fit for profit models commodifying land to ease its access by the private sector for real estate led growth. The research augments the literature on the privatization of land use planning in India. Further, it attempts to discuss the increasing role a landowner is expected to play in the future and suggests a way forward to safeguard them from market risks. The study involves a thematic analysis of the policy elements contained in legislative/policy documents, notifications, office orders. The study also derives from the various widely circulated print media information. With the present field-visit limitations, the study relies on documents accessed open-source in the public domain.

Keywords: commodification, dispossession, land acquisition, landowner

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