Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Majid Rasta, Xiaotao Shi, Mian Adnan Kakakhel, Yanqin Bai, Lao Liu, Jia Manke

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Microplastics (MPs; particles <5 mm) pollution is considered as a globally pervasive threat to aquatic ecosystems, and many studies reported this pollution in rivers, wetlands, lakes, coastal waters and oceans. In the aquatic environments, settling and transport of MPs in water column and sediments are determined by different factors such as hydrologic characteristics, watershed pattern, rainfall events, hydraulic conditions, vegetation, hydrodynamics behavior of MPs, and physical features of particles (shape, size and density). In the meantime, hydraulic conditions (such as turbulence, high/low water speed flows or water stagnation) play a key role in the fate of MPs in aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, this study presents a briefly review on the effects of different hydraulic conditions on the fate, transport and accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems. Generally, MPs are distributed horizontally and vertically in aquatic environments. The vertical distribution of MPs in the water column changes with different flow velocities. In the riverine, turbulent flow causing from the rapid water velocity and shallow depth may create a homogeneous mixture of MPs throughout the water column. While low velocity followed by low-turbulent waters can lead to the low level vertical mixing of MP particles in the water column. Consequently, the high numbers of MPs are expected to be found in the sediments of deep and wide channels as well as estuaries. In contrast, observing the lowest accumulation of MP particles in the sediments of straights of the rivers, places with the highest flow velocity is understandable. In the marine environment, hydrodynamic factors (e.g., turbulence, current velocity and residual circulation) can affect the sedimentation and transportation of MPs and thus change the distribution of MPs in the marine and coastal sediments. For instance, marine bays are known as the accumulation area of MPs due to poor hydrodynamic conditions. On the other hand, in the nearshore zone, the flow conditions are highly complex and dynamic. Experimental studies illustrated that maximum horizontal flow velocity in the sandy beach can predict the accumulation of MPs so that particles with high sinking velocities deposit in the lower water depths. As a whole, it can be concluded that the transport and accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems are highly affected by hydraulic conditions. This study provided information about the impacts of hydraulic on MPs pollution. Further research on hydraulics and its relationship to the accumulation of MPs in aquatic ecosystems is needed to increase insights into this pollution.

Keywords: microplastics pollution, hydraulic, transport, accumulation

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Authors: Zeynep Yazgan, Gökhan Aygün, Reyhan Çalışkan

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Objective: Invasive fungal infections are a serious threat in terms of morbidity and mortality, especially in immunocompromised patients. The most frequently isolated agents are Aspergillus genus fungi, and sensitivity to azoles, which are the first choice in treatment, decreases. In our study, we aimed to investigate the use of the agar plate screening method as a fast, easy, and practical method in determining azole resistance in Aspergillus spp. species. Methods: Our study was conducted with 125 Aspergillus spp. isolates produced from various clinical samples. Aspergillus spp. isolates were identified by conventional methods and azole resistance was determined by gradient test and agar plate screening method. Broth microdilution method was applied to resistant isolates, and CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations in the cyp51A gene were investigated. Results: In our study, 55 A. fumigatus complex (44%), 42 A. flavus (33.6%), 6 A. terreus (5%), 4 A. niger (3%) and 18 Aspergillus spp. (14%) were identified. With the gradient test method, resistance to VOR and POS was detected in 1 (1.8%) of A.fumigatus isolates, and resistance to ITR was detected in 3 (5.45%). With the agar plate method, 1 of the A.fumigatus isolates (1.8%) had VOR, ITR, POS, 1 of the A.terreus isolates (16.7%) had VOR, 1 of the A.niger isolates (25%) had ITR. Resistance to VOR and POS was detected in 2 Aspergillus spp. isolates (11%), and resistance to ITR was detected in 1 (5.6%). Sensitivity and specificity were determined as 100% for VOR and POS in A. fumigatus species, 33.3% and 100% for ITR, respectively, 100% for ITR in A. flavus species, and 100% for ITR and POS in A. terreus species. By broth microdilution method in 7 isolates in which resistance was detected by gradient test and/or agar plate screening method; 1 A.fumigatus resistant to ITR, VOR, POS, 2 A.fumigatus resistant to ITR, 2 Aspergillus spp. ITR, VOR, POS MICs were determined as 2µg/ml and 8µg/ml, 8µg/ml and >32µg/ml, 0.5µg/ml and 4µg/ml, respectively. CypA-L98H mutations were detected in 5 of these isolates, CypA-M220 mutations were detected in 6, and no mutation was detected in 1. CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations were detected in 1 isolate for which resistance was not detected. Conclusion: The need for rapid antifungal susceptibility screening tests is increasing in the treatment of aspergillosis. Although the sensitivity of the agar plate method was determined to be 33.3% for A.fumigatus ITR in our study, its sensitivity and specificity were determined to be 100% for ITR, VOR, and POS in other species. The low sensitivity value detected for A.fumigatus showed that agar plate drug concentrations should be updated in accordance with the latest regulations of EUCAST guidelines. The CypA-L98H and CypA-M220 mutations detected in our study suggested that the distribution of azole resistance-related mutations in different regions in our country should be investigated. In conclusion, it is thought that the agar plate method, which can be easily applied to detect azole resistance, is a fast and practical method in routine use and can contribute to both the determination of effective treatment strategies and the generation of epidemiological data.

Keywords: Aspergillus, agar plate, azole resistance, cyp51A, cypA-L98H, cypA-M220

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Authors: Dehni Abdellatif, Lounis Mourad

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The new approach of applied spatial geostatistics in materials sciences, agriculture accuracy, agricultural statistics, permitted an apprehension of managing and monitoring the water and groundwater qualities in a relationship with salt-affected soil. The anterior experiences concerning data acquisition, spatial-preparation studies on optical and multispectral data has facilitated the integration of correction models of electrical conductivity related with soils temperature (horizons of soils). For tomography apprehension, this physical parameter has been extracted from calibration of the thermal band (LANDSAT ETM+6) with a radiometric correction. Our study area is Oran region (Northern West of Algeria). Different spectral indices are determined such as salinity and sodicity index, the Combined Spectral Reflectance Index (CSRI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emissivity, Albedo, and Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR). The approach of geostatistical modeling of electrical conductivity (salinity), appears to be a useful decision support system for estimating corrected electrical resistivity related to the temperature of surface soils, according to the conversion models by substitution, the reference temperature at 25°C (where hydrochemical data are collected with this constraint). The Brightness temperatures extracted from satellite reflectance (LANDSAT ETM+) are used in consistency models to estimate electrical resistivity. The confusions that arise from the effects of salt stress and water stress removed followed by seasonal application of the geostatistical analysis in Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques investigation and monitoring the variation of the electrical conductivity in the alluvial aquifer of Es-Sénia for the salt-affected soil.

Keywords: geostatistical modelling, landsat, brightness temperature, conductivity

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Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, Shihas A. Khader

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Motion response of floating structures is of great concern in marine engineering. Nonlinearity is an inherent property of any floating bodies subjected to irregular waves. These floating structures are continuously subjected to environmental loadings from wave, current, wind etc. This can result in undesirable motions of the vessel which may challenge the operability. For a floating body to remain in its position, it should be able to induce a restoring force when displaced. Mooring is provided to enable this restoring force. This paper discuss the hydrodynamic performance and motion characteristics of an 8 point spread mooring system applied to a pipe laying barge operating in the West African sea. The modelling of the barge is done using a computer aided-design (CAD) software RHINOCEROS. Irregular waves are generated using a suitable wave spectrum. Both frequency domain and time domain analysis is done. Numerical simulations based on potential theory are carried out to find the responses and hydrodynamic performance of the barge in both free floating as well as moored conditions. Initially, potential flow frequency domain analysis is done to obtain the Response Amplitude Operator (RAO) which gives an idea about the structural motion in free floating state. RAOs for different wave headings are analyzed. In the following step, a time domain analysis is carried out to obtain the responses of the structure in the moored condition. In this study, wave induced motions are only taken into consideration. Wind and current loads are ruled out and shall be included in future studies. For the current study, 5000 seconds simulation is taken. The results represent wave-induced motion responses, mooring line tensions and identifies critical mooring lines.

Keywords: irregular wave, moored barge, time domain analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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Authors: Enes Yasa, Guven Fidan

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Building Simulation tools need to better evaluate convective heat exchanges between external air and wall surfaces. Previous analysis demonstrated the significant effects of convective heat transfer coefficient values on the room energy balance. Some authors have pointed out that large discrepancies observed between widely used building thermal models can be attributed to the different correlations used to calculate or impose the value of the convective heat transfer coefficients. Moreover, numerous researchers have made sensitivity calculations and proved that the choice of Convective Heat Transfer Coefficient values can lead to differences from 20% to 40% of energy demands. The thermal losses to the ambient from a building surface or a roof mounted solar collector represent an important portion of the overall energy balance and depend heavily on the wind induced convection. In an effort to help designers make better use of the available correlations in the literature for the external convection coefficients due to the wind, a critical discussion and a suitable tabulation is presented, on the basis of algebraic form of the coefficients and their dependence upon characteristic length and wind direction, in addition to wind speed. Many research works have been conducted since early eighties focused on the convection heat transfer problems inside buildings. In this context, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) program has been used to predict external convective heat transfer coefficients at external building surfaces. For the building facades model, effects of wind speed and temperature differences between the surfaces and the external air have been analyzed, showing different heat transfer conditions and coefficients. In order to provide further information on external convective heat transfer coefficients, a numerical work is presented in this paper, using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) commercial package (CFX) to predict convective heat transfer coefficients at external building surface.

Keywords: CFD in buildings, external convective heat transfer coefficients, building facades, thermal modelling

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Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Bibin Sagaram, Ronith Stanly, S. S. Suneesh

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Due to the dwindling supply of fuel reserves, engineers and designers now focus on fuel efficient designs for the solution of any problem; the transportation industry is not new to this kind of approach. Though the aerodynamic benefits of the dimples on a Golf-ball are known, it has never been scientifically tested on how such a design philosophy can improve the fuel efficiency of a real-life vehicle by imparting better aerodynamic performance. The main purpose of the paper is to establish the aerodynamic benefits of the Golf-ball-Inspired Dimpled Design in improving the fuel efficiency of a Super-mileage vehicle, constructed by Team Go Viridis for ‘Shell Eco Marathon Asia 2015’, and to predict the extent to which the results can be held valid for a road car. The body design was modeled in Autodesk Inventor and the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were carried out using Ansys Fluent software. The aerodynamic parameters of designs (with and without the Golf-ball-Inspired Dimples) have been studied and the results are experimentally validated against those obtained from wind tunnel tests carried out on a 1:10 scaled-down 3D printed model. Test drives of the Super-mileage vehicle were carried out, under various conditions, to compare the variation in fuel efficiency with and without the Golf-ball-Inspired design. Primary investigations reveal an aerodynamic advantage of 25% for the vehicle with the Golf Ball Inspired Dimpled Design as opposed to the normal design. Initial tests conducted by ‘Mythbusters’ on Discovery Network using a modified road car has shown positive results which has motivated us to conduct such a research work using a custom-built experimental Super-Mileage vehicle. The content of the paper becomes relevant to the present Automotive and Energy industry where improving the fuel efficiency is of the top most priority.

Keywords: aerodynamics, CFD, fuel efficiency, golf ball

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Authors: Pradip Baishya, D. K. Mahanta

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Rapid and unplanned urbanisation in most cities of India has progressively increased the problem of managing municipal waste in the past few years. With insufficient infrastructure and funds, Municipalities in most cities are struggling to cope with the pace of waste generated. Open dumping is widely in practice as a cheaper option. Scientific disposal of waste in such a large scale with the elements of segregation, recycling, landfill, and incineration involves sophisticated and expensive plants. In an effort to finding affordable and simple solutions to address this burning issue of waste disposal, a semi-mechanized plant has been designed underlying the concept of a zero waste community. The fabrication work of the waste management unit is carried out by local skills from locally available materials. A resident colony in the city of Guwahati has been chosen, which is seen as a typical representative of most cities in India in terms of size and key issues surrounding waste management. Scientific management and disposal of waste on site is carried out on the principle of reduce, reuse and recycle from segregation to compositing. It is a local community participatory model, which involves all stakeholders in the process namely rag pickers, residents, municipality and local industry. Studies were conducted to testify the plant as revenue earning self-sustaining model in the long term. Current working efficiency of plant for segregation was found to be 1kg per minute. Identifying bottlenecks in the success of the model, data on efficiency of the plant, economics of its fabrication were part of the study. Similar satellite waste management plants could potentially be a solution to supplement the waste management system of municipalities of similar sized cities in India or South East Asia with similar issues surrounding waste disposal.

Keywords: affordable, rag pickers, recycle, reduce, reuse, segregation, zero waste

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Authors: Agustin Maciel-Padilla

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This paper explores the most significant change to Japan’s security strategy since the end of World War II, in particular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government publication, in late 2022, of 3 policy documents (the National Security Strategy [NSS], the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program) that basically propose to expand the country’s military capabilities and to increase military spending over a 5-year period. These policies represent a remarkable transformation of Japan’s defense-oriented policy followed since 1946. These proposals have been under analysis and debate since they were announced, as it was also Japan’s historic ambition to strengthening its deterrence capabilities in the context of a more complex regional security environment. Even though this new defense posture has attracted significant international attention, it is far from representing a done deal because of the fact that there is still a long way to go to implement this vision because of a wide variety of political and economic issues. Japan is currently experiencing the most dangerous security environment since the end of World War II, and this situation led Japan to intensify its dialogue with the United States to reflect a re-evaluation of deterrence in the face of a rapidly worsening security environment, a changing balance of power in East Asia, and the arrival of a new era of “great power competition”. Japan’s new documents, for instance, identify China and North Korea’s as posing, respectively, a strategic challenge and an imminent threat. Japan has also noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has contributed to erode the foundation of the international order. It is considered that Russia’s aggression was possible because Ukraine’s defense capability was not enough for effective deterrence. Moreover, Japan’s call for “counterstrike capabilities” results from a recognition that China and North Korea’s ballistic and cruise missiles could overwhelm Japan’s air and missile defense systems, and therefore there is an urgent need to strengthen deterrence and resilience. In this context, this paper will focus on the impact of these changes on the US-Japan alliance. Adapting this alliance to Tokyo’s new ambitions and capabilities could be critical in terms of updating their traditional protection/access to bases arrangement, interoperability and joint command and control issues, as well as regarding the security–economy nexus. While China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and trade between the two has been growing, US-Japan economic relationship has been slower, notwithstanding the fact that US-Japan security cooperation has strengthened significantly in recent years.

Keywords: us-japan alliance, japan security, great power competition, interoperability

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Authors: Jean-michel Sahut, Lubica Hikkerova, Wissal Ben Arfi

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The Internet of Things (IoT) emerged over the last few decades in many fields. Healthcare can significantly benefit from IoT. This study aims to examine factors influencing the adoption of IoT in eHealth. To do so, an innovative framework has been developed which applies both the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model and builds on them by analyzing trust and perceived-risk dimensions to predict intention to use IoT in eHealth. In terms of methodology, a Partial Least Approach Structural Equation Modelling was carried out on a sample of 267 French users. The findings of this research support the significant positive effect of constructs set out in the TAM (perceived ease of use) on predicting behavioral intention by adding the effects identified for UTAUT variables. This research also demonstrates how perceived risk and trust are significant factors for models examining behavioral intentions to use IoT. Perceived risk enhanced by the trust has a significant effect on patients’ behavioral intentions. Moreover, the results highlight the key role of prescription as a moderator of IoT adoption in eHealth. Depending on whether an individual has a prescription to use connected devices or not, ease of use has a stronger impact on adoption, while trust has a negative impact on adoption for users without a prescription. In accordance with the empirical results, several practical implications can be proposed. All connected devices applied in a medical context should be divided into groups according to their functionality: whether they are essential for the patient’s health and whether they require a prescription or not. Devices used with a prescription are easily accepted because the intention to use them is moderated by the medical trust (discussed above). For users without a prescription, ease of use is a more significant factor than for users who have a prescription. This suggests that currently, connected e-Health devices and online healthcare systems have to take this factor into account to better meet the needs and expectations of end-users.

Keywords: internet of things, Healthcare, trust, consumer acceptance

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Authors: Michael Ayomoh, Adriaan Roux, Oyindamola Omotuyi

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This paper presents an efficient robot navigation model in a multi-target domain amidst static and dynamic workspace obstacles. The problem is that of developing an optimal algorithm to minimize the total travel time of a robot as it visits all target points within its task domain amidst unknown workspace obstacles and finally return to its initial position. In solving this problem, a classical algorithm was first developed to compute the optimal number of paths to be travelled by the robot amidst the network of paths. The principle of shortest distance between robot and targets was used to compute the target point visitation order amidst workspace obstacles. Algorithm premised on the standard polar coordinate system was developed to determine the length of obstacles encountered by the robot hence giving room for a geometrical estimation of the total surface area occupied by the obstacle especially when classified as a relevant obstacle i.e. obstacle that lies in between a robot and its potential visitation point. A stochastic model was developed and used to estimate the likelihood of a dynamic obstacle bumping into the robot’s navigation path and finally, the navigation/obstacle avoidance algorithm was hinged on the hybrid virtual force field (HVFF) method. Significant modelling constraints herein include the choice of navigation path to selected target points, the possible presence of static obstacles along a desired navigation path and the likelihood of encountering a dynamic obstacle along the robot’s path and the chances of it remaining at this position as a static obstacle hence resulting in a case of re-routing after routing. The proposed algorithm demonstrated a high potential for optimal solution in terms of efficiency and effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-target, mobile robot, optimal path, static obstacles, dynamic obstacles

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Authors: Rashi Rajput, Manisha Singh

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Escitalopram oxalate (ETP), an FDA approved antidepressant drug from the category of SSRI (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and is used in treatment of general anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD).When taken orally, it is metabolized to S-demethylcitalopram (S-DCT) and S-didemethylcitalopram (S-DDCT) in the liver with the help of enzymes CYP2C19, CYP3A4 and CYP2D6. Hence, causing side effects such as dizziness, fast or irregular heartbeat, headache, nausea etc. Therefore, targeted and sustained drug delivery will be a helpful tool for increasing its efficacy and reducing side effects. The present study is designed for formulating mucoadhesive nanoparticle formulation for the same Escitalopram loaded polymeric nanoparticles were prepared by ionic gelation method and characterization of the optimised formulation was done by zeta average particle size (93.63nm), zeta potential (-1.89mV), TEM (range of 60nm to 115nm) analysis also confirms nanometric size range of the drug loaded nanoparticles along with polydispersibility index of 0.117. In this research, we have studied the in vitro drug release profile for ETP nanoparticles, through a semi permeable dialysis membrane. The three important characteristics affecting the drug release behaviour were – particle size, ionic strength and morphology of the optimised nanoparticles. The data showed that on increasing the particle size of the drug loaded nanoparticles, the initial burst was reduced which was comparatively higher in drug. Whereas, the formulation with 1mg/ml chitosan in 1.5mg/ml tripolyphosphate solution showed steady release over the entire period of drug release. Then this data was further validated through mathematical modelling to establish the mechanism of drug release kinetics, which showed a typical linear diffusion profile in optimised ETP loaded nanoparticles.

Keywords: ionic gelation, mucoadhesive nanoparticle, semi-permeable dialysis membrane, zeta potential

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Authors: Maryam Kheirollahpour, Mahmoud Danaee, Amir Faisal Merican, Asma Ahmad Shariff

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Background: The presence of nonlinearity among the risk factors of eating behavior causes a bias in the prediction models. The accuracy of estimation of eating behaviors risk factors in the primary prevention of obesity has been established. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a hybrid model of structural equation modeling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict eating behaviors. Methods: The Partial Least Square-SEM (PLS-SEM) and a hybrid model (SEM-Artificial Neural Networks (SEM-ANN)) were applied to evaluate the factors affecting eating behavior patterns among university students. 340 university students participated in this study. The PLS-SEM analysis was used to check the effect of emotional eating scale (EES), body shape concern (BSC), and body appreciation scale (BAS) on different categories of eating behavior patterns (EBP). Then, the hybrid model was conducted using multilayer perceptron (MLP) with feedforward network topology. Moreover, Levenberg-Marquardt, which is a supervised learning model, was applied as a learning method for MLP training. The Tangent/sigmoid function was used for the input layer while the linear function applied for the output layer. The coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) was calculated. Results: It was proved that the hybrid model was superior to PLS-SEM methods. Using hybrid model, the optimal network happened at MPLP 3-17-8, while the R² of the model was increased by 27%, while, the MSE was decreased by 9.6%. Moreover, it was found that which one of these factors have significantly affected on healthy and unhealthy eating behavior patterns. The p-value was reported to be less than 0.01 for most of the paths. Conclusion/Importance: Thus, a hybrid approach could be suggested as a significant methodological contribution from a statistical standpoint, and it can be implemented as software to be able to predict models with the highest accuracy.

Keywords: hybrid model, structural equation modeling, artificial neural networks, eating behavior patterns

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Authors: Pintip Vajarothai, Saad Al-Jibouri, Johannes I. M. Halman

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Public investment projects are primarily aimed at achieving development strategies to increase national economies of scale and overall improvement in a country. However, experience shows that public projects, particularly in developing countries, struggle or fail to fulfill the immediate needs of local communities. In many cases, the reason for that is that projects are selected in a subjective manner and that a major part of the problem is related to the evaluation criteria and techniques used. The evaluation process is often based on a broad strategic economic effects rather than real benefits of projects to society or on the various needs from different levels (e.g. national, regional, local) and conditions (e.g. long-term and short-term requirements). In this paper, an extensive literature review of the types of criteria used in the past by various researchers in project evaluation and selection process is carried out and the effectiveness of such criteria and techniques is discussed. The paper proposes substitute social and project sustainability criteria to improve the conditions of local people and in particular the disadvantaged groups of the communities. Furthermore, it puts forward a way for modelling the interaction between the selected criteria and the achievement of the social goals of the affected community groups. The described work is part of developing a broader decision model for public investment project selection by integrating various aspects and techniques into a practical methodology. The paper uses Thailand as a case to review what and how the various evaluation techniques are currently used and how to improve the project evaluation and selection process related to social and sustainability issues in the country. The paper also uses an example to demonstrates how to test the feasibility of various criteria and how to model the interaction between projects and communities. The proposed model could be applied to other developing and developed countries in the project evaluation and selection process to improve its effectiveness in the long run.

Keywords: evaluation criteria, developing countries, public investment, project selection methodology

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Authors: Eric York, James Tadio, Silas Owusu Antwi

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Laundry wastewater contains a diverse range of chemical pollutants that can have detrimental effects on human health and the environment. In this study, simulation studies by Spyder Python software v 3.2 to assess the efficacy of biochar in removing PO₄³⁻ from wastewater were conducted. Through modeling and simulation, the mechanisms involved in the adsorption process of phosphate by biochar were studied by altering variables which is specific to the phosphate from common laundry phosphate detergents, such as the aqueous solubility, initial concentration, and temperature using the Dudinin Approach (DA). Results showed that the concentration equilibrate at near the highest concentrations for Sugar beet-120 mgL⁻¹, Tailing-85 mgL⁻¹, CaO- rich-50 mgL⁻¹, Eggshell and rice straw-48 mgL⁻¹, Undaria Pinnatifida Roots-190 mgL⁻¹, Ca-Alginate Granular Beads -240 mgL⁻¹, Laminaria Japonica Powder -900 mgL⁻¹, Pinesaw dust-57 mgL⁻¹, Ricehull-190 mgL⁻¹, sesame straw- 470 mgL⁻¹, Sugar Bagasse-380 mgL⁻¹, Miscanthus Giganteus-240 mgL⁻¹, Wood Bc-130 mgL⁻¹, Pine-25 mgL⁻¹, Sawdust-6.8 mgL⁻¹, Sewage Sludge-, Rice husk-12 mgL⁻¹, Corncob-117 mgL⁻¹, Maize straw- 1800 mgL⁻¹ while Peanut -Eucalyptus polybractea-, Crawfish equilibrated at near concentration. CO₂ activated Thalia, sewage sludge biochar, Broussonetia Papyrifera Leaves equilibrated just at the lower concentration. Only Soyer bean Stover exhibited a sharp rise and fall peak in mid-concentration at 2 mgL⁻¹ volume. The modelling results were consistent with experimental findings from the literature, ensuring the accuracy, repeatability, and reliability of the simulation study. The simulation study provided insights into adsorption for PO₄³⁻ from wastewater by biochar using concentration per volume that can be adsorbed ideally under the given conditions. Studies showed that applying the principle experimentally in real wastewater with all its complexity is warranted and not far-fetched.

Keywords: simulation studies, phosphate removal, biochar, adsorption, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Harish Kuruva, Vedasri Bai Khavala, Tiju Thomas, K. Murugan, B. S. Murty

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Industries are growing day to day to increase the economy of the country. The biggest problem with industries is wastewater treatment. Releasing these wastewater directly into the river is more harmful to human life and a threat to aquatic life. These industrial effluents contain many dissolved solids, organic/inorganic compounds, salts, toxic metals, etc. Phenols, pesticides, dioxins, herbicides, pharmaceuticals, and textile dyes were the types of industrial effluents and more challenging to degrade eco-friendly. So many advanced techniques like electrochemical, oxidation process, and valorization have been applied for industrial wastewater treatment, but these are not cost-effective. Industrial effluent degradation is complicated compared to commercially available pollutants (dyes) like methylene blue, methylene orange, rhodamine B, etc. TiO₂ is one of the widely used photocatalysts which can degrade organic compounds using solar light and moisture available in the environment (organic compounds converted to CO₂ and H₂O). TiO₂ is widely studied in photocatalysis because of its low cost, non-toxic, high availability, and chemically and physically stable in the atmosphere. This study mainly focused on valorizing the mineralogical product TiO₂ (IREL, India). This mineralogical graded TiO₂ was characterized and compared with its structural and photocatalytic properties (industrial effluent degradation) with the commercially available Degussa P-25 TiO₂. It was testified that this mineralogical TiO₂ has the best photocatalytic properties (particle shape - spherical, size - 30±5 nm, surface area - 98.19 m²/g, bandgap - 3.2 eV, phase - 95% anatase, and 5% rutile). The industrial effluent was characterized by TDS (total dissolved solids), ICP-OES (inductively coupled plasma – optical emission spectroscopy), CHNS (Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, and sulfur) analyzer, and FT-IR (fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy). It was observed that it contains high sulfur (S=11.37±0.15%), organic compounds (C=4±0.1%, H=70.25±0.1%, N=10±0.1%), heavy metals, and other dissolved solids (60 g/L). However, the organo-sulfur industrial effluent was degraded by photocatalysis with the industrial mineralogical product TiO₂. In this study, the industrial effluent pH value (2.5 to 10), catalyst concentration (50 to 150 mg) were varied, and effluent concentration (0.5 Abs) and light exposure time (2 h) were maintained constant. The best degradation is about 80% of industrial effluent was achieved at pH 5 with a concentration of 150 mg - TiO₂. The FT-IR results and CHNS analyzer confirmed that the sulfur and organic compounds were degraded.

Keywords: wastewater treatment, industrial mineralogical product TiO₂, photocatalysis, organo-sulfur industrial effluent

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Authors: Moufida Benmoussa

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Since the escalation of the Syrian conflict in 2011, 6.9 million Syrians have fled to neighbouring countries, and 6.7 have remained displaced in Syria. Out of the 6.9 who fled Syria, over one million have crossed the Mediterranean Sea and become refugees and asylum seekers in various European countries. As a European and a member country of the EU, the Republic of Ireland was not an exception. In response to the refugee crisis caused mainly by the Syrian displacement, Ireland established the Syrian Humanitarian Admission Programme (SHAM) in 2014 and the Irish Refugee Protection Programme (IRPP) in 2015, followed by its second phase in 2019. In light of these events, Irish print media played a significant role in covering the Irish government’s decisions, political stance, and public opinion on the debate on taking Syrian refugees into Ireland. Considering the tremendous impact of media on politics and public opinion, my research examined how The Irish Times and Irish Independent framed Syrian migration to Ireland. I adopted a qualitative framing analysis to identify the prominent framings in these two newspapers. The collection of newspaper articles focused on three periods. The first period is from the first of January 2014 to the end of December 2014. During this period, the media covered the launch of the Syrian Humanitarian Admission Programme (SHAP) and stories about the first arrival of the Syrian refugees to Ireland. The second period is the year 2015. During this year, various events gained the attention of the Irish media. These events include Ireland’s establishment of the Irish Refugee Protection Programme, the Paris attacks, and the publishing of Aylan Kurdi’s Photograph. The third period is from the first of December 2019 to the thirtieth of January 2020. In this period, the media covered the convention of Ireland with the UNHCR and the European Union to provide sanctuary to 2900 refugees in the years 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The primary findings of my study indicate that The Irish Times and Irish Independent’s framing of Syrian migration to Ireland was various. My research findings indicate that The Irish Times and Irish Independent’s framing of Syrian migration to Ireland was varied and asymmetrical. The dominant frames used by these two newspapers are humanitarian, responsibility, contribution, burden, intruder, and threat. The former three frames positively perceive Syrian migration to Ireland and support the Irish government’s decisions to welcome more Syrian refugees. On the other hand, the last three frames perceive Syrian migration and refugees negatively and stand for the principle that Ireland should not take Syrian refugees.

Keywords: framing, Syrian migration, Ireland, newspaper

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Authors: Yaxin Bi, Peter Nicholl

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The rapid advancement of Information and communication technologies (ICT) is extremely influencing every aspect of Higher Education. It has transformed traditional teaching, learning, assessment and feedback into a new era of Digital Education. This also introduces many challenges in capturing and understanding student engagement with their studies in Higher Education. The School of Computing at Ulster University has developed a Feedback And Notification (FAN) Online tool that has been used to send students links to personalized feedback on their submitted assessments and record students’ frequency of review of the shared feedback as well as the speed of collection. The feedback that the students initially receive is via a personal email directing them through to the feedback via a URL link that maps to the feedback created by the academic marker. This feedback is typically a Word or PDF report including comments and the final mark for the work submitted approximately three weeks before. When the student clicks on the link, the student’s personal feedback is viewable in the browser and they can view the contents. The FAN tool provides the academic marker with a report that includes when and how often a student viewed the feedback via the link. This paper presents an investigation into student engagement through analyzing the interaction timestamps and frequency of review by the student. We have proposed an approach to modeling interaction timestamps and use sentiment classification techniques to analyze the data collected over the last five years for a set of modules. The data studied is across a number of final years and second-year modules in the School of Computing. The paper presents the details of quantitative analysis methods and describes further their interactions with the feedback overtime on each module studied. We have projected the students into different groups of engagement based on sentiment analysis results and then provide a suggestion of early targeted intervention for the set of students seen to be under-performing via our proposed model.

Keywords: feedback, engagement, interaction modelling, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Edwin Dankano

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Evident by incessant and sporadic attacks on Nigerians poise a serious threat to the unity of Nigeria, and secondly, the single biggest security nightmare to confront Nigeria since after amalgamation of the Southern and Northern protectorates by the British colonialist in 1914 is “Boko Haram” a terrorist organization also known as “Jama’atul Ahli Sunnah Lidda’wati wal Jihad”, or “people committed to the propagation of the Prophet’s teachings and jihad”. The sect also upholds an ideology translated as “Western Education is forbidden”, or rejection of Western civilization and institutions. By some estimates, more than 5,500 people were killed in Boko Haram attacks in 2014, and Boko Haram attacks have already claimed hundreds of lives and territories {caliphates}in early 2015. In total, the group may have killed more than 10,000 people since its emergence in the early 2000s. More than 1 million Nigerians have been displaced internally by the violence, and Nigerian refugee figures in neighboring countries continue to rise. This paper is predicated on secondary sources of data and anchored on the Huntington’s theory of clash of civilization. As such, the paper argued that the rise of Boko Haram with its violent disposition against Western values is a counter response to Western civilization that is fast eclipsing other civilizations. The paper posits that the Boko Haram insurrection going by its teachings, and destruction of churches is a validation of the propagation of the sect as a religious revolt which has resulted in dire humanitarian situation in Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe states all in north eastern Nigeria as evident in human casualties, human right abuses, population displacement, refugee debacle, livelihood crisis, and public insecurity. The paper submits that the Nigerian state should muster the needed political will in terms of a viable anti-terrorism measures and build strong legitimate institutions that can adequately curb the menace of corruption that has engulfed the military hierarchy, respond proactively to the challenge of terrorism in Nigeria and should embrace a strategic paradigm shift from anti-terrorism to counter-terrorism as a strategy for containing the crisis that today threatens the secular status of Nigeria.

Keywords: Boko Haram, civilization, fundamentalism, Islam, religion revolt, terror

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Authors: Khanyisile Mnguni, Muthukrishnavellaisamy Kumarasamy, Jeff C. Smithers

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Umgeni Water is a water board that supplies most parts of KwaZulu Natal with bulk portable water. Currently, Umgeni Water is running its distribution system based on required reservoir levels and demands and does not consider the energy cost at different times of the day, number of pump switches, and background leakages. Including these constraints can reduce operational cost, energy usage, leakages, and increase performance. Optimising pump schedules can reduce energy usage and costs while adhering to hydraulic and operational constraints. Umgeni Water has installed an online hydraulic software, WaterNet Advisor, that allows running different operational scenarios prior to implementation in order to optimise the distribution system. This study will investigate operation scenarios using optimisation techniques and WaterNet Advisor for a local water distribution system. Based on studies reported in the literature, introducing pump scheduling optimisation can reduce energy usage by approximately 30% without any change in infrastructure. Including tariff structures in an optimisation problem can reduce pumping costs by 15%, while including leakages decreases cost by 10%, and pressure drop in the system can be up to 12 m. Genetical optimisation algorithms are widely used due to their ability to solve nonlinear, non-convex, and mixed-integer problems. Other methods such as branch and bound linear programming have also been successfully used. A suitable optimisation method will be chosen based on its efficiency. The objective of the study is to reduce energy usage, operational cost, and leakages, and the feasibility of optimal solution will be checked using the Waternet Advisor. This study will provide an overview of the optimisation of hydraulic networks and progress made to date in multi-objective optimisation for a selected sub-system operated by Umgeni Water.

Keywords: energy usage, pump scheduling, WaterNet Advisor, leakages

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Authors: Y. Smirlis, G. Koronakos, S. Plitsos

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Shipbrokers assist the ship companies in chartering or selling and buying vessels, acting as intermediates between them and the market. They facilitate deals, providing their expertise, negotiating skills, and knowledge about ship market bargains. Their role is very important as it affects the profitability and market position of a shipping company. Due to their significant contribution, the shipping companies have to employ systematic procedures to evaluate the shipbrokers’ services in order to select the best and, consequently, to achieve the best deals. Towards this, in this paper, we consider shipbrokers as financial service providers, and we formulate the problem of evaluating and selecting shipbrokers’ services as a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) procedure. The proposed methodology comprises a first normalization step to adjust different scales and orientations of the criteria and a second step that includes the mathematical model to evaluate the performance of the shipbrokers’ services involved in the assessment. The criteria along which the shipbrokers are assessed may refer to their size and reputation, the potential efficiency of the services, the terms and conditions imposed, the expenses (e.g., commission – brokerage), the expected time to accomplish a chartering or selling/buying task, etc. and according to our modelling approach these criteria may be assigned different importance. The mathematical programming model performs a comparative assessment and estimates for the shipbrokers involved in the evaluation, a relative score that ranks the shipbrokers in terms of their potential performance. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we present a case study in which a shipping company evaluates and selects the most suitable among a number of sale and purchase (S&P) brokers. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the OptiShip project, implemented within the framework of the National Recovery Plan and Resilience “Greece 2.0” and funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU programme.

Keywords: shipbrokers, multi-criteria decision making, mathematical programming, service-provider selection

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Authors: Shivani Yadav

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The Study of terrorism lends itself to the constructivist framework as constructivism focuses on the importance of ideas and norms in shaping interests and identities. Constructivism is pertinent to understand the phenomenon of a terrorist organization like the Islamic State (IS), which opportunistically utilizes radical ideas and norms to shape its ‘politics of identity’. This ‘identity’, which is at the helm of preferences and interests of actors, in turn, shapes actions. The paper argues that an effective counter-terrorism policy must recognize the importance of ideas in order to counter the threat arising from acts of radicalism and terrorism. Traditional theories of international relations, with an emphasis on state-centric security problematic, exhibit several limitations and problems in interpreting the phenomena of terrorism. With the changing global order, these theories have failed to adapt to the changing dimensions of terrorism, especially ‘newer’ actors like the Islamic State (IS). The paper observes that IS distinguishes itself from other terrorist organizations in the way that it recruits and spreads its propaganda. Not only are its methods different, but also its tools (like social media) are new. Traditionally, too, force alone has rarely been sufficient to counter terrorism, but it seems especially impossible to completely root out an organization like IS. Time is ripe to change the discourse around terrorism and counter-terrorism strategies. The counter-terrorism measures adopted by states, which primarily focus on mitigating threats to the national security of the state, are preoccupied with statist objectives of the continuance of state institutions and maintenance of order. This limitation prevents these theories from addressing the questions of justice and the ‘human’ aspects of ideas and identity. These counter-terrorism strategies adopt a problem-solving approach that attempts to treat the symptoms without diagnosing the disease. Hence, these restrictive strategies fail to look beyond calculated retaliation against violent actions in order to address the underlying causes of discontent pertaining to ‘why’ actors turn violent in the first place. What traditional theories also overlook is that overt acts of violence may have several causal factors behind them, some of which are rooted in the structural state system. Exploring these root causes through the constructivist framework helps to decipher the process of ‘construction of terror’ and to move beyond the ‘what’ in theorization in order to describe ‘why’, ‘how’ and ‘when’ terrorism occurs. Study of terrorism would much benefit from a constructivist analysis in order to explore non-military options while countering the ideology propagated by the IS.

Keywords: constructivism, counter terrorism, Islamic State, politics of identity

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Authors: Mir Md. Abdus Salam, Muhammad Mohsin, Pertti Pulkkinen, Paavo Pelkonen, Ari Pappinen

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Soil and water pollution caused by extensive mining practices can adversely affect environmental components, such as humans, animals, and plants. Despite a generally positive contribution to society, mining practices have become a serious threat to biological systems. As metals do not degrade completely, they require immobilization, toxicity reduction, or removal. A greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of lime and N100 (11-amino-1-hydroxyundecylidene) chelate amendment on the growth and phytoextraction potential of the willow variety Klara (S. viminalis × S. schwerinii × S. dasyclados) grown in soils heavily contaminated with copper (Cu). The plants were irrigated with tap or processed water (mine wastewater). The sequential extraction technique and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) tool were used to determine the extractable metals and evaluate the fraction of metals in the soil that could be potentially available for plant uptake. The results suggest that the combined effects of the contaminated soil and processed water inhibited growth parameter values. In contrast, the accumulation of Cu in the plant tissues was increased compared to the control. When the soil was supplemented with lime and N100; growth parameter and resistance capacity were significantly higher compared to unamended soil treatments, especially in the contaminated soil treatments. The combined lime- and N100-amended soil treatment produced higher growth rate of biomass, resistance capacity and phytoextraction efficiency levels relative to either the lime-amended or the N100-amended soil treatments. This study provides practical evidence of the efficient chelate-assisted phytoextraction capability of Klara and highlights its potential as a viable and inexpensive novel approach for in-situ remediation of Cu-contaminated soils and mine wastewaters. Abandoned agricultural, industrial and mining sites can also be utilized by a Salix afforestation program without conflict with the production of food crops. This kind of program may create opportunities for bioenergy production and economic development, but contamination levels should be examined before bioenergy products are used.

Keywords: copper, Klara, lime, N100, phytoextraction

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Authors: Chloé Kernaléguen, Laura Kundun, Tessie Lery, Ryan Laleg, Zhangyun Tan

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This study explores global disparities in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis incidence among children aged 0-2 years, focusing on the human development index (HDI) as a key determinant. RSV bronchiolitis poses a significant health risk to young children, influenced by factors, including socio-economic conditions captured by the HDI. Through a comprehensive systematic review and dataset selection (Switzerland, Brazil, United States of America), we formulated an HDI-SEIRS numerical model within the SEIRS framework. Results show variations in RSV bronchiolitis dynamics across countries, emphasizing the influence of HDI. Modelling reveals a correlation between higher HDI and increased bronchiolitis spread, notably in the USA and Switzerland. The ratios HDIcountry over HDImax strengthen this association, while climate disparities contribute to variations, especially in colder climates like the USA and Switzerland. The study raises the hypothesis of an indirect link between higher HDI and more frequent bronchiolitis, underlining the need for nuanced understanding. Factors like improved healthcare access, population density, mobility, and social behaviors in higher HDI countries might contribute to unexpected trends. Limitations include dataset quality and restricted RSV bronchiolitis data. Future research should encompass diverse HDI datasets to refine HDI's role in bronchiolitis dynamics. In conclusion, HDI-SEIRS models offer insights into factors influencing RSV bronchiolitis spread. While HDI is a significant indicator, its impact is indirect, necessitating a holistic approach to effective public health policies. This analysis sets the stage for further investigations into multifaceted interactions shaping bronchiolitis dynamics in diverse socio-economic contexts.

Keywords: bronchiolitis propagation, HDI influence, respiratory syncytial virus, SEIRS model

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Authors: Enes Gunaltili, Burak Dam

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The airplane history started with the Wright brothers' aircraft and improved day by day. With the help of this advancements, big aircrafts replace with small and unmanned air vehicles, so in this study we design this type of air vehicles. First of all, aircrafts mainly divided into two main parts in our day as a rotary and fixed wing aircrafts. The fixed wing aircraft generally use for transport, cargo, military and etc. The rotary wing aircrafts use for same area but there are some superiorities from each other. The rotary wing aircraft can take off vertically from the ground, and it can use restricted area. On the other hand, rotary wing aircrafts generally can fly lower range than fixed wing aircraft. There are one kind of aircraft consist of this two types specifications. It is named as VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) type aircraft. VTOLs are able to takeoff and land vertically and fly horizontally. The VTOL aircrafts generally can fly higher range from the rotary wings but can fly lower range from the fixed wing aircraft but it gives beneficial range between them. There are many other advantages of VTOL aircraft from the rotary and fixed wing aircraft. Because of that, VTOLs began to use for generally military, cargo, search, rescue and mapping areas. Within this framework, this study answers the question that how can we design VTOL as a small unmanned aircraft systems for search and rescue application for benefiting the advantages of fixed wing and rotary wing aircrafts by eliminating the disadvantages of them. To answer that question and design VTOL aircraft, multidisciplinary design optimizations (MDO), some theoretical terminologies, formulations, simulations and modelling systems based on CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) is used in same time as design methodology to determine design parameters and steps. As a conclusion, based on tests and simulations depend on design steps, suggestions on how the VTOL aircraft designed and advantages, disadvantages, and observations for design parameters are listed, then VTOL is designed and presented with the design parameters, advantages, and usage areas.

Keywords: airplane, rotary, fixed, VTOL, CFD

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Authors: Rui Li, Min Wen, Kim Bang Salling

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For the modern railways, maintenance is critical for ensuring safety, train punctuality and overall capacity utilization. The cost of railway maintenance in Europe is high, on average between 30,000 – 100,000 Euros per kilometer per year. In order to reduce such maintenance expenditures, this paper presents a mixed 0-1 linear mathematical model designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballast track in the planning horizon of three to four years. The objective function is to minimize the tamping machine actual costs. The approach of the research is using the simple dynamic model for modelling condition-based tamping process and the solution method for finding optimal condition-based tamping schedule. Seven technical and practical aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality recovery on the track quality after tamping operation; (5) Tamping machine operation practices (6) tamping budgets and (7) differentiating the open track from the station sections. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 42.6 km of length is applied for a time period of three and four years in the proposed maintenance model. The generated tamping schedule is reasonable and robust. Based on the result from the Danish railway corridor, the total costs can be reduced significantly (50%) than the previous model which is based on optimizing the number of tamping. The different maintenance strategies have been discussed in the paper. The analysis from the results obtained from the model also shows a longer period of predictive tamping planning has more optimal scheduling of maintenance actions than continuous short term preventive maintenance, namely yearly condition-based planning.

Keywords: integer programming, railway tamping, predictive maintenance model, preventive condition-based maintenance

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Authors: Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, A. C. Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy

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Burden of Dengue in Northern India Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, AC Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, NVBDCP,WHO New Delhi, India Aim: This study was conducted to estimate the burden of dengue in capital region of India. Methodology:Seropositivity of Dengue for IgM Ab, NS1 Ag and IgG Ab were performed among the blood donors’ samples from blood bank, those who were coming to donate blood for the requirement of blood for the admitted patients in hospital. Blood samplles were collected through out the year to estimate seroprevalance of dengue with or without outbreak season. All the subjects were asymptomatic at the time of blood donation. Results: A total of 1558 donors were screened for the study. On the basis of inclusion/ exclusion criteria, we enrolled 1531subjects for the study.Twenty seven donors were excluded from the study, out of which 6 were detected HIV +ve, 11 were positive for HBsAg and 10 were found positive for HCV.Mean age was 30.51 ± 7.75 years.Of 1531subjects, 18 (1.18%) had a past history of typhoid fever, 28 (1.83%) had chikungunya fever, 9 (0.59%) had malaria and 43 subjects (2.81%) had a past history of symptomatic dengue infection.About 2.22% (34) of subjects were found to have sero-positive for NS1 Ag with a peak point prevalence of 7.14% in the month of October and sero-positive of IgM Ab was observed about 5.49% (84)with a peak point prevalence of 14.29% in the month of October. Sero-prevalnce of IgGwas detected in about 64.21% (983) of subjects. Conclusion: Acute asymptomatic dengue (NS1 Ag+ve) was observed in 7.14%, as the subjects were having no symptoms at the time of sampling. This group of subjects poses a potential public health threat for transmitting dengue infection through blood transfusion (TTI) in the community as evident by presence of active viral infection due to NS1Ag +VE. Therefore a policy may be implemented in the blood bank for testing NS1 Ag to look for active dengue infection for preventing dengue transmission through blood transfusion (TTI). Acute or Subacute dengue infection ( IgM Ab+ve) was observed from 5.49% to 14.29% which is a peak point prevalence in the month of October. About 64.21% of the population were immunized by natural dengue infection ( IgG Ab+ve) in theNorthern province of India. This might be helpful for implementing the dengue vaccine in a region. Blood samples in blood banks should be tested for dengue before transfusion to any other person to prevent transfusion transmitted dengue infection as we estimated upto 7.14% positivity of NS1 Ag in our study which indicates presence of dengue virus in blood donors’ samples.

Keywords: Dengue Burden, Seroprevalance, Asymptomatic dengue, Dengue transmission through blood transfusion

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Authors: Suresh Hettiarachchi, Conrad Wasko, Ashish Sharma

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The ever changing and expanding urban landscape increases the stress on urban systems to support and maintain safe and functional living spaces. Flooding presents one of the more serious threats to this safety, putting a larger number of people in harm’s way in congested urban settings. Climate change is adding to this stress by creating a dichotomy in the urban flood response. On the one hand, climate change is causing storms to intensify, resulting in more destructive, rarer floods, while on the other hand, longer dry periods are decreasing the severity of more frequent, less intense floods. This variability is creating a need to be more agile and innovative in how we design for and manage urban flooding. Here, we argue that to cope with this challenge climate change brings, we need to move towards urban flood management through resilience rather than flood prevention. We also argue that dealing with the larger variation in flood response to climate change means that we need to look at flooding from all aspects rather than the single-dimensional focus of flood depths and extents. In essence, we need to rethink how we manage flooding in the urban space. This change in our thought process and approach to flood management requires a practical way to assess and quantify resilience that is built into the urban landscape so that informed decision-making can support the required changes in planning and infrastructure design. Towards that end, we propose a Simple Urban Flood Resilience Index (SUFRI) based on a robust definition of resilience as a tool to assess flood resilience. The application of a simple resilience index such as the SUFRI can provide a practical tool that considers urban flood management in a multi-dimensional way and can present solutions that were not previously considered. When such an index is grounded on a clear and relevant definition of resilience, it can be a reliable and defensible way to assess and assist the process of adapting to the increasing challenges in urban flood management with climate change.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, climate change, flood management, flood modelling

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Authors: Ibrahim Burki

Abstract:

Unfortunately, all organizations (Industrial and Humanitarian/ Non-governmental organizations) are prone to fraud and corruption in their supply chain management routines. The reputational and financial fallout can be disastrous. With the growing number of companies using suppliers based in the local market has certainly increased the threat of fraud as well as corruption. There are various potential threats like, poor or non-existent record keeping, purchasing of lower quality goods at higher price, excessive entertainment of staff by suppliers, deviations in communications between procurement staff and suppliers, such as calls or text messaging to mobile phones, staff demanding extended periods of notice before they allow an audit to take place, inexperienced buyers and more. But despite all the above-mentioned threats, this research paper emphasize upon the effectiveness of well-maintained vendor/s records and sorting/filtration of vendor/s to cut down the possible threats of corruption and fraud. This exercise is applied in a humanitarian organization of Pakistan but it is applicable to whole South Asia region due to the similarity of culture and contexts. In that firm, there were more than 550 (five hundred and fifty) registered vendors. As during the disasters or emergency phases requirements are met on urgent basis thus, providing golden opportunities for the fake companies or for the brother/sister companies of the already registered companies to be involved in the tendering process without declaration or even under some different (new) company’s name. Therefore, a list of required documents (along with checklist) was developed and sent to all of the vendor(s) in the current database and based upon the receipt of the requested documents vendors were sorted out. Furthermore, these vendors were divided into active (meeting the entire set criterion) and non-active groups. This initial filtration stage allowed the firm to continue its work without a complete shutdown that is only vendors falling in the active group shall be allowed to participate in the tenders by the time whole process is completed. Likewise only those companies or firms meeting the set criterion (active category) shall be allowed to get registered in the future along with a dedicated filing system (soft and hard shall be maintained), and all of the companies/firms in the active group shall be physically verified (visited) by the Committee comprising of senior members of at least Finance department, Supply Chain (other than procurement) and Security department.

Keywords: corruption reduction, fraud prevention, supplier management, industrial/humanitarian organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 539