Search results for: crisis scenarios cycles

Authors: Stephen Rulisa, Aimee Nyiramahirwe

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Background: Strategies to increase the uptake of contraception services have been adopted in Rwanda, but the unmet need for family planning remains high. Women in the postpartum period are at higher risk for unintended pregnancy due to the silent conversion from lactational amenorrhea to reactivation of ovulatory cycles. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of male partners in the uptake of postpartum contraception. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted among women who delivered at the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali for a period of 3 months with random sampling. A questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and antenatal data, information on male companionship, and intent to use postpartum contraception at admission. Participants were contacted six weeks later to collect data on contraceptive use. The outcome variables were uptake of postpartum contraception and types of contraceptives taken (long-acting vs. short-acting), controlling for male companionship during the antenatal period. A Chi-square test was used and a p-value ≤0.05 was considered significant. Results: A total of 209 women were recruited with a mean age of 30.8±5.2 years. The majority (60.9%) were multigravida, and 66.5% were multiparous. More than half (55%) had male partner companionship, 18.3% had companionship for four antenatal visits, and 28.2% had education on contraception with their male partner. Factors significantly associated with uptake of postpartum contraception were: age above 30 years, owning or heading a business, multigravidity, multiparity, antenatal care at a health center or district hospital, cesarean delivery, and previous utilization of contraception. Male companionship significantly increased the intent to use contraception, uptake of modern contraception in general, and uptake of long active contraceptives but did not predict the uptake of short-acting contraceptives. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates a positive association between male companionship during antenatal care, labor and delivery with the uptake of postpartum family planning. Our study suggests more sensitization to involve the male partners, improving the education on contraception during antenatal care and further research to assess the sustained uptake of contraception beyond the postpartum period.

Keywords: postpartum, family planning, contraception, male partner, uptake

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Authors: Milena Lakicevic

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The paper deals with the problem of optimizing management options for urban parks within different scenarios of nature protection and tourism importance. The procedure is demonstrated on a case study example of urban parks in Novi Sad (Serbia). Six management strategies for the selected area have been processed by the decision support method PROMETHEE. Two criteria used for the evaluation were nature protection and tourism and each of them has been divided into a set of indicators: for nature protection those were biodiversity and preservation of original landscape, while for tourism those were recreation potential, aesthetic values, accessibility and culture features. It was pre-assumed that each indicator in a set is equally important to a corresponding criterion. This way, the research was focused on a sensitivity analysis of criteria weights. In other words, weights of indicators were fixed and weights of criteria altered along the entire scale (from the value of 0 to the value of 1), and the assessment has been performed in two-dimensional surrounding. As a result, one could conclude which management strategy would be the most appropriate along with changing of criteria importance. The final ranking of management alternatives was followed up by investigating the mean PROMETHEE Φ values for all options considered and when altering the importance of nature protection/tourism. This type of analysis enabled detecting an alternative with a solid performance along the entire scale, i.e., regardlessly of criteria importance. That management strategy can be seen as a compromise solution when the weight of criteria is not defined. As a conclusion, it can be said that, in some cases, instead of having criteria importance fixed it is important to test the outputs depending on the different schemes of criteria weighting. The research demonstrates the state of the final decision when the decision maker can estimate criteria importance, but also in cases when the importance of criteria is not established or known.

Keywords: criteria weights, PROMETHEE, sensitivity analysis, urban parks

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi & Boualem Remini

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Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater, intrusion, sharp interface, Algeria

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission

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Authors: Jefri Draup, Antoine Ambard, Chi-Toan Nguyen

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Zirconium alloys exhibit solid-state phase transformations under thermal loading. These can lead to a significant evolution of the microstructure and associated mechanical properties of materials used in nuclear fuel cladding structures. Therefore, the ability to capture effects of phase transformation on the material constitutive behavior is of interest during conditions of severe transient thermal loading. Whilst typical Avrami, or Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), type models for phase transformations have been shown to have a good correlation with the behavior of Zircaloy-4 under constant heating rates, the effects of variable and fast heating rates are not fully explored. The present study utilises the results of in-situ high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD) measurements in order to validate the phase transformation models for Zircaloy-4 under fast variable heating rates. These models are used to assess the performance of fuel cladding structures under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. The results indicate that simple Avrami type models can provide a reasonable indication of the phase distribution in experimental test specimens under variable fast thermal loading. However, the accuracy of these models deteriorates under the faster heating regimes, i.e., 100Cs⁻¹. The studies highlight areas for improvement of simple Avrami type models, such as the inclusion of temperature rate dependence of the JMAK n-exponent.

Keywords: accident, fuel, modelling, zirconium

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Authors: Ibrahim Iddrisu, Joseph Ayariga, Junhuan Xu, Ayomide Adebanjo, Boakai K. Robertson, Michelle Samuel-Foo, Olufemi Ajayi

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The rise of antimicrobial resistance is a global public health crisis that threatens the effective control and prevention of infections. Due to the emergence of pan drug-resistant bacteria, most antibiotics have lost their efficacy. Bacteriophages or their components are known to target bacterial cell walls, cell membranes, and lipopolysaccharides (LPS) and hydrolyze them. Bacteriophages, being the natural predators of pathogenic bacteria, are inevitably categorized as ‘human friends’, thus fulfilling the adage that ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’. Leveraging on their lethal capabilities against pathogenic bacteria, researchers are searching for more ways to overcome the current antibiotic resistance challenge. In this study, we expressed and purified epsilon 34 phage tail spike protein (E34 TSP) from the E34 TSP gene, then assessed the ability of this bacteriophage protein in the killing of two CBD-resistant strains of Salmonella spp. We also assessed the ability of the tail spike protein to cause bacteria membrane disruption and dehydrogenase depletion. We observed that the combined treatment of CBD-resistant strains of Salmonella with CBD and E34 TSP showed poor killing ability, whereas the mono treatment with E34 TSP showed considerably higher killing efficiency. This study demonstrates that the inhibition of the bacteria by E34 TSP was due in part to membrane disruption and dehydrogenase inactivation by the protein. The results of this work provide an interesting background to highlight the crucial role phage proteins such as E34 TSP could play in pathogenic bacterial control.

Keywords: cannabidiol, resistance, Salmonella, antimicrobials, phages

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Bongs Lainjo

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Educational institutions and authorities that are mandated to run education systems in various countries need to implement a curriculum that considers the possibility and existence of elementary school dropouts. This research focuses on elementary school dropout rates and the ability to replicate various predictive models carried out globally on selected Elementary Schools. The study was carried out by comparing the classical case studies in Africa, North America, South America, Asia and Europe. Some of the reasons put forward for children dropping out include the notion of being successful in life without necessarily going through the education process. Such mentality is coupled with a tough curriculum that does not take care of all students. The system has completely led to poor school attendance - truancy which continuously leads to dropouts. In this study, the focus is on developing a model that can systematically be implemented by school administrations to prevent possible dropout scenarios. At the elementary level, especially the lower grades, a child's perception of education can be easily changed so that they focus on the better future that their parents desire. To deal effectively with the elementary school dropout problem, strategies that are put in place need to be studied and predictive models are installed in every educational system with a view to helping prevent an imminent school dropout just before it happens. In a competency-based curriculum that most advanced nations are trying to implement, the education systems have wholesome ideas of learning that reduce the rate of dropout.

Keywords: elementary school, predictive models, machine learning, risk factors, data mining, classifiers, dropout rates, education system, competency-based curriculum

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Authors: Andres Diaz Garcia, Ana Maria Ceballos Rojas, Duvan Albeiro Millan Montano

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This paper describes the initial technological development stages in the area of liquid fermentation required to reach the quantities of biomass of the biofertilizer microorganism Rhizobium sp. strain B02, for the application of the unitary stages downstream at laboratory scale. In the first stage, the adjustment and standardization of the fermentation process in conventional batch mode were carried out. In the second stage, various fed-batch and continuous fermentation strategies were evaluated in 10L-bioreactor in order to optimize the yields in concentration (Colony Forming Units/ml•h) and biomass (g/l•h), to make feasible the application of unit operations downstream of process. The growth kinetics, the evolution of dissolved oxygen and the pH profile generated in each of the strategies were monitored and used to make sequential adjustments. Once the fermentation was finished, the final concentration and viability of the obtained biomass were determined and performance parameters were calculated with the purpose of select the optimal operating conditions that significantly improved the baseline results. Under the conditions adjusted and standardized in batch mode, concentrations of 6.67E9 CFU/ml were reached after 27 hours of fermentation and a subsequent noticeable decrease was observed associated with a basification of the culture medium. By applying fed-batch and continuous strategies, significant increases in yields were achieved, but with similar concentration levels, which involved the design of several production scenarios based on the availability of equipment usage time and volume of required batch.

Keywords: biofertilizer, liquid fermentation, Rhizobium sp., standardization of processes

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Authors: Ahmad Umar, Ahmed A. Ibrahim, Mohsen A. Alhamami

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This study introduces a facile synthesis method for synthesizing reduced graphene oxide (rGO) nanosheets with surface decoration of polyaniline (PANI). The resultant rGO@PANI nanocomposite (NC) exhibit substantial potential as advanced electrode materials for high-performance supercapacitors. The strategic integration of PANI onto the rGO surface serves dual purposes, effectively mitigating the agglomeration of rGO films and augmenting their utility in supercapacitor applications. The PANI coating manifests a highly porous and nanosized morphology, fostering increased surface area and optimized mass transport by reducing diffusion kinetics. The nanosized structure of PANI contributes to the maximization of active sites, thereby bolstering the efficacy of the nanocomposites for diverse applications. The inherent conductive nature of the rGO surface significantly expedites electron transport, thereby amplifying the overall electrochemical performance of the nanocomposites. To systematically evaluate the influence of PANI concentration on the electrode performance, varying concentrations of PANI were incorporated. Notably, an elevated PANI concentration was found to enhance the response owing to the unique morphology of PANI. Remarkably, the 5% rGO@PANI NC emerged as the most promising candidate, demonstrating exceptional response characteristics with a specific capacitance of 314.2 F/g at a current density of 1 A/g. Furthermore, this catalyst exhibits outstanding long-term stability, retaining approximately 92% of its capacitance even after enduring 4000 cycles. This research underscores the significance of the synergistic integration of rGO and PANI in the design of high-performance supercapacitors. The elucidation of the underlying mechanisms governing the improved electrochemical properties contributes to the fundamental understanding of nanocomposite behavior, thereby paving the way for the rational design of next-generation energy storage materials.

Keywords: reduced graphene oxide, polyaniline, nanocomposites, supercapacitors, energy storage

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Authors: Saloni Pandya, Nikhil Sharma, Ajanta Sachan

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Expansive soils in the unsaturated state are part of vadose zone and encountered in several arid and semi-arid parts of the world. Influence of high temperature, low precipitation and alternate cycles of wetting and drying are responsible for the chemical weathering of rocks, which results in the formation of expansive soils. Shrinkage-swelling (expansive) soils cover a substantial portion of area in India. Damages caused by expansive soils to various geotechnical structures are alarming. Matric suction develops in unsaturated soil due to capillarity and surface tension phenomena. Matric suction influences the geometric arrangement of soil skeleton, which induces the volume change behaviour of expansive soil. In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the role of matric suction in the mechanism behind swelling characteristics of expansive soil. Four different soils have been collected from different parts of India for the current research. Soil sample S1, S2, S3 and S4 were collected from Nagpur, Bharuch, Bharuch-Dahej highway and Ahmedabad respectively. DFSI (Differential Free Swell Index) of these soils samples; S1, S2, S3, and S4; were determined to be 134%, 104%, 70% and 30% respectively. X-ray diffraction analysis of samples exhibited that percentage of Montmorillonite mineral present in the soils reduced with the decrease in DFSI. A series of constant volume swell pressure tests and in-contact filter paper tests were performed to evaluate swelling pressure and matric suction of all four soils at 30% saturation and 1.46 g/cc dry density. Results indicated that soils possessing higher DFSI exhibited higher matric suction as compared to lower DFSI expansive soils. Significant influence of matric suction on swelling pressure of expansive soils was observed with varying DFSI values. Higher matric suction of soil might govern the water uptake in the interlayer spaces of Montmorillonite mineral present in expansive soil leading to crystalline swelling.

Keywords: differential free swell index, expansive soils, matric suction, swelling pressure

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Authors: Elizabeth McDermott, Elizabeth Hughes, Victoria Rawlings

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Globally, suicide is the second leading cause of death among 15–29 year-olds. Young people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) have elevated rates of suicide and self-harm. Despite the increased risk, there is a paucity of research on LGBT help-seeking and suicidality. This is the first national study to investigate LGBT youth help-seeking for suicidal feelings and self-harm. We report on a UK sequential exploratory mixed method study that employed face-to-face and online methods in two stages. Stage one involved 29 online (n=15) and face-to-face (n=14) semi-structured interviews with LGBT youth aged under 25 years old. Stage two utilized an online LGBT youth questionnaire employing a community-based sampling strategy (n=789). We found across the sample that LGBT youth who self-harmed or felt suicidal were reluctant to seek help. Results indicated that participants were normalizing their emotional distress and only asked for help when they reached crisis point and were no longer coping. Those who self-harmed (p<0.001, OR=2.82), had attempted or planned suicide (p<0.05, OR=1.48), or had experience of abuse related to their sexuality or gender (p<0.01, OR=1.80), were most likely to seek help. There were a number of interconnecting reasons that contributed to participants’ problems accessing help. The most prominent of these were: negotiating norms in relation to sexuality, gender, mental health and age; being unable to talk about emotions, and coping and self-reliance. It is crucial that policies and practices that aim to prevent LGBT youth suicide recognize that norms and normalizing processes connected to sexual orientation and gender identity are additional difficulties that LGBT youth have accessing mental health support.

Keywords: help-seeking, LGBT, suicide, youth

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Authors: Sanjivrao Katakam, Thanumoorthi I., Antony Gerald, Ratan Kulkarni, Shaju Nair

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With increasing energy costs and its impact on the business, sustainability today has evolved from a social expectation to an economic imperative. Therefore, finding methods to reduce cost has become a critical directive for Industry leaders. Effective energy management is the only way to cut costs. However, Energy Management has been a challenge because it requires a change in old habits and legacy systems followed for decades. Today exorbitant levels of energy and operational data is being captured and stored by Industries, but they are unable to convert these structured and unstructured data sets into meaningful business intelligence. It must be noted that for quick decisions, organizations must learn to cope with large volumes of operational data in different formats. Energy analytics not only helps in extracting inferences from these data sets, but also is instrumental in transformation from old approaches of energy management to new. This in turn assists in effective decision making for implementation. It is the requirement of organizations to have an established corporate strategy for reducing operational costs through visibility and optimization of energy usage. Energy analytics play a key role in optimization of operations. The paper describes how today energy data analytics is extensively used in different scenarios like reducing operational costs, predicting energy demands, optimizing network efficiency, asset maintenance, improving customer insights and device data insights. The paper also highlights how analytics helps transform insights obtained from energy data into sustainable solutions. The paper utilizes data from an array of segments such as retail, transportation, and water sectors.

Keywords: energy analytics, energy management, operational data, business intelligence, optimization

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Authors: Muhammad Umair, Yuri Nikolaev, Denis Artemov, Ighor Uzhinsky

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A flexible manufacturing system is an integral part of a smart factory of industry 4.0 in which every machine is interconnected and works autonomously. Robots are in the process of replacing humans in every industrial sector. As the cyber-physical-system (CPS) and artificial intelligence (AI) are advancing, the manufacturing industry is getting more dependent on computers than human brains. This modernization has boosted the production with high quality and accuracy and shifted from classic production to smart manufacturing systems. However, material handling for such automated productions is a challenge and needs to be addressed with the best possible solution. Conventional clamping systems are designed for manual work and not suitable for highly automated production systems. Researchers and engineers are trying to find the most economical solution for loading/unloading and transportation workpieces from a warehouse to a machine shop for machining operations and back to the warehouse without human involvement. This work aims to propose an advanced multi-shape tooling solution for highly automated manufacturing systems. The currently obtained result shows that it could function well with automated guided vehicles (AGVs) and modern conveyor belts. The proposed solution is following requirements to be automation-friendly, universal for different part geometry and production operations. We used a bottom-up approach in this work, starting with studying different case scenarios and their limitations and finishing with the general solution.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, cyber physics system, Industry 4.0, material handling, smart factory, flexible manufacturing system

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Authors: Payal Maheshwari, Bansari Shah

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The research aimed to study the level of emotional intelligence (EI) and organizational role stress (ORS) of fire-fighters and the relationship between the two variables. Hundred and twenty fire-fighters were selected from different fire stations of Mumbai by purposive sampling. The firefighters who had the basic training, a minimum experience of 2 years and had been on the field during a crisis situation were selected for the study. The firefighters selected ranged from 23-58 years of age, and the number of years of experience ranged from 2 to 33 years. The findings of the study revealed that majority of the firefighters perceived themselves to be at an above average (57) and high (58) level of EI (M=429.35, SD=38.712). Domain-wise analysis disclosed that compared to self-awareness (92) and relationship management (93), more number of participants perceived themselves in the high category in the domains of self-management (108) and social management (106). Further, examination of the subdomain scores conveyed that a large number of participants rated themselves in the average level of these skills of accurate self-assessment (50), emotional self-control (50), adaptability (56) initiative (41), influence (66), change catalyst (53), and conflict management (50). With relation to the stress variable, it was found that almost half the number of the participants (59) rated themselves as having an average level of stress (M=137.44, SD=28.800). In most of the domains, majority of the participants perceived themselves as having an average level of stress, while in the domain of role isolation, self-role distance, and role ambiguity, majority of the firefighters rated themselves as having a low level of stress. A strong negative correlation (r=-.360**, p=.000) was found between EI and ORS. This study is a contribution to the literature and has implications for fire-fighters at the personal level, for the policymakers, and the fire department.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, organizational role stress, firefighters, relationship

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Authors: Neha Devi, P. K. Joshi

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Fire fuel map is one of the most critical factors for planning and managing the fire hazard and risk. One of the most significant forms of global disturbance, impacting community dynamics, biogeochemical cycles and local and regional climate across a wide range of ecosystems ranging from boreal forests to tropical rainforest is wildfire Assessment of fire danger is a function of forest type, fuelwood stock volume, moisture content, degree of senescence and fire management strategy adopted in the ground. Remote sensing has potential of reduction the uncertainty in mapping fuels. Hyperspectral remote sensing is emerging to be a very promising technology for wildfire fuels characterization. Fine spectral information also facilitates mapping of biophysical and chemical information that is directly related to the quality of forest fire fuels including above ground live biomass, canopy moisture, etc. We used Hyperion imagery acquired in February, 2016 and analysed four fuel characteristics using Hyperion sensor data on-board EO-1 satellite, acquired over the Shiwalik Himalayas covering the area of Champawat, Uttarakhand state. The main objective of this study was to present an overview of methodologies for mapping fuel properties using hyperspectral remote sensing data. Fuel characteristics analysed include fuel biomass, fuel moisture, and fuel condition and fuel type. Fuel moisture and fuel biomass were assessed through the expression of the liquid water bands. Fuel condition and type was assessed using green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and soil as Endmember for spectral mixture analysis. Linear Spectral Unmixing, a partial spectral unmixing algorithm, was used to identify the spectral abundance of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and soil.

Keywords: forest fire fuel, Hyperion, hyperspectral, linear spectral unmixing, spectral mixture analysis

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Authors: Ayham Fattoum, Simos Chari, Duncan Shaw

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Volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions threaten systems viability with emerging and novel events requiring immediate and localized responses. Such responsiveness is only possible through devolved freedom and emancipated decision-making. The Viable System Model (VSM) recognizes the need and suggests maximizing autonomy to localize decision-making and minimize residual complexity. However, exercising delegated autonomy in VUCA requires confidence and knowledge to use intuition and guidance to maintain systemic coherence. This paper explores the role of intuition as an enabler of emancipated decision-making and autonomy under VUCA. Intuition allows decision-makers to use their knowledge and experience to respond rapidly to novel events. This paper offers three contributions to VSM. First, it designs a system model that illustrates the role of intuitive decision-making in managing complexity and maintaining viability. Second, it takes a black-box approach to theory development in VSM to model the role of autonomy and intuition. Third, the study uses a multi-stage discovery-oriented approach (DOA) to develop theory, with each stage combining literature, data analysis, and model/theory development and identifying further questions for the subsequent stage. We synthesize literature (e.g., VSM, complexity management) with seven months of field-based insights (interviews, workshops, and observation of a live disaster exercise) to develop a framework of intuitive complexity management framework and VSM models. The results have practical implications for enhancing the resilience of organizations and communities.

Keywords: Intuition, complexity management, decision-making, viable system model

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Authors: Kishor Kumar Sadasivuni, Mizaj Shabil Sha, Assim Alajali, Godlaveeti Sreenivasa Kumar, Aboubakr M. Abdullah, Bijandra Kumar, Mithra Geetha

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A potential pathway for efficient hydrogen production from water splitting electrolysis involves catalysis or electrocatalysis, which plays a crucial role in energy conversion and storage. Hydrogen generated by electrocatalytic water splitting requires active, stable, and low-cost catalysts or electrocatalysts to be developed for practical applications. In this study, we evaluated combination of 2D materials of NiS nanoparticle catalysts for hydrogen evolution reactions. The photocatalytic H₂ production rate of this nanoparticle is high and exceeds that obtained on components alone. Nanoparticles serve as electron collectors and transporters, which explains this improvement. Moreover, a current density was recorded at reduced working potential by 0.393 mA. Calculations based on density functional theory indicate that the nanoparticle's hydrogen evolution reaction catalytic activity is caused by strong interaction between its components at the interface. The samples were analyzed by XPS and morphologically by FESEM for the best outcome, depending on their structural shapes. Use XPS and morphologically by FESEM for the best results. This nanocomposite demonstrated higher electro-catalytic activity, and a low tafel slope of 60 mV/dec. Additionally, despite 1000 cycles into a durability test, the electrocatalyst still displays excellent stability with minimal current loss. The produced catalyst has shown considerable potential for use in the evolution of hydrogen due to its robust synthesis. According to these findings, the combination of 2D materials of nickel sulfide sample functions as good electocatalyst for H₂ evolution. Additionally, the research being done in this fascinating field will surely push nickel sulfide-based technology closer to becoming an industrial reality and revolutionize existing energy issues in a sustainable and clean manner.

Keywords: electrochemical hydrogenation, nickel sulfide, electrocatalysts, energy conversion, catalyst

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Authors: Serge Tshibangu, Turgay Celik, Zenzo Ncube

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Road crashes kill nearly over a million people every year, and leave millions more injured or permanently disabled. Various annual reports reveal that the percentage of fatal crashes due to fatigue/driver falling asleep comes directly after the percentage of fatal crashes due to intoxicated drivers. This percentage is higher than the combined percentage of fatal crashes due to illegal/Un-Safe U-turn and illegal/Un-Safe reversing. Although a relatively small percentage of police reports on road accidents highlights drowsiness and fatigue, the importance of these factors is greater than we might think, hidden by the undercounting of their events. Some scenarios show that these factors are significant in accidents with killed and injured people. Thus the need for an automatic drivers fatigue detection system in order to considerably reduce the number of accidents owing to fatigue.This research approaches the drivers fatigue detection problem in an innovative way by combining cues collected from both temporal analysis of drivers’ faces and environment. Monotony in driving environment is inter-related with visual symptoms of fatigue on drivers’ faces to achieve fatigue detection. Optical and infrared (IR) sensors are used to analyse the monotony in driving environment and to detect the visual symptoms of fatigue on human face. Internal cues from drivers faces and external cues from environment are combined together using machine learning algorithms to automatically detect fatigue.

Keywords: intelligent transportation systems, bayesian networks, yawning computing, machine learning algorithms

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Authors: Marina Kapsali, John S. Anagnostopoulos

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Greek islands’ interconnection (IC) with larger power systems, such as the mainland grid, is a crucial issue that has attracted a lot of interest; however, the recent economic recession that the country undergoes together with the highly capital intensive nature of this kind of projects have stalled or sifted the development of many of those on a more long-term basis. On the other hand, most of Greek islands are still heavily dependent on the lengthy and costly supply chain of oil imports whilst the majority of them exhibit excellent potential for wind energy (WE) applications. In this respect, the main purpose of the present work is to investigate −through a parametric study which varies both in wind farm (WF) and submarine IC capacities− the impact of large-scale WE development on the IC of the third in size island of Greece (Lesbos) with the mainland system. The energy and economic performance of the system is simulated over a 25-year evaluation period assuming two possible scenarios, i.e. S(a): without the contribution of the local Thermal Power Plant (TPP) and S(b): the TPP is maintained to ensure electrification of the island. The economic feasibility of the two options is investigated in terms of determining their Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) including also a sensitivity analysis on the worst/reference/best Cases. According to the results, Lesbos island IC presents considerable economic interest for covering part of island’s future electrification needs with WE having a vital role in this challenging venture.

Keywords: electricity generation cost, levelized cost of energy, mainland grid, wind energy rejection

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Authors: Mohd Asharf Ganie, Aafia Rashid, Mohd Afzal Zargar, Showkat Ali Zargar, Syed Mudasar, Tabasum Parvaiz, Zafar Amin Shah

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Accumulating evidence suggests that Vitamin D deficiency (VDD) might at least contribute to the metabolic co-morbidities in PCOS. Hence, we aimed to study the effect of vitamin D supplementation in co-prescription with insulin sensitizers like metformin and pioglitazone on clinical, hormonal and metabolic parameters in women with PCOS. In this open label randomized, controlled trial a total of 120 women with PCOS diagnosis (AE-PCOS 2009 Criteria) were assigned to four treatment groups (n= 30 in each): group I (metformin 1 gm/day in combination with cholecalciferol 4000 IU/day), group II (pioglitazone 30 mg/day in combination with cholecalciferol 4000 IU/day), group III (metformin 1 gm /day) and group IV (pioglitazone 30 mg/day). Vitamin D supplementation was given as 60,000 units every two weeks for 24 weeks. All the subjects were routinely evaluated for clinical, biochemical, hormonal and insulin sensitivity parameters in addition to various safety parameters especially serum calcium levels at baseline and after 24 weeks of the treatment. Our results indicate that 95.5% of PCOS women were vitamin D deficient at baseline. Serum 25 (OH) D levels increased significantly (p < 0.001) in groups I and II without any adverse effects after 24 weeks of oral administration of 4000 IU cholecalciferol daily. However, serum 25 (OH) D levels remained unchanged in group III and IV. By six months, number of menstrual cycles per year increased whereas Ferriman-Gallwey score, serum total testosterone and HOMA-IR decreased significantly (P < 0.001) in the treatment groups supplemented with cholecalciferol as compared to those treated either drug alone. No significant beneficial changes were observed on weight, BMI, blood pressure, glucose tolerance and serum lipids in any of the groups supplemented with cholecalciferol. We conclude that daily dose of 4000 IU cholecalciferol might be a useful adjunct in complex treatment of PCOS with fewer adverse events. Furthermore, pioglitazone and cholecalciferol combination seems to be marginally better although there was no statistical significance.

Keywords: PCOS, vitamin D supplementation, insulin resistance, spironolactone, metformin, pioglitazone

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Mohammad Amin Hamedirad, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei

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Project planning and control are one of the most critical issues in the management of construction projects. Traditional methods of project planning and control, such as the critical path method or Gantt chart, are not widely used for planning projects with discrete and repetitive activities, and one of the problems of project managers is planning the implementation process and optimal allocation of its resources. Massive concreting projects is also a project with discrete and repetitive activities. This study uses the concept of simulating discrete events to manage resources, which includes finding the optimal number of resources considering various limitations such as limitations of machinery, equipment, human resources and even technical, time and implementation limitations using analysis of resource consumption rate, project completion time and critical points analysis of the implementation process. For this purpose, the concept of discrete-event simulation has been used to model different stages of implementation. After reviewing the various scenarios, the optimal number of allocations for each resource is finally determined to reach the maximum utilization rate and also to reduce the project completion time or reduce its cost according to the existing constraints. The results showed that with the optimal allocation of resources, the project completion time could be reduced by 90%, and the resulting costs can be reduced by up to 49%. Thus, allocating the optimal number of project resources using this method will reduce its time and cost.

Keywords: simulation, massive concreting, discrete event simulation, resource management

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Heba M. Jahin, Ali F. Bakr, Zeyad T. Elsayad

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As smart spaces can be defined as any working environment which integrates embedded computers, information appliances and multi-modal sensors to remain focused on the interaction between the users, their activity, and their behavior in the space; hence, smart space must be aware of their contexts and automatically adapt to their changing context-awareness, by interacting with their physical environment through natural and multimodal interfaces. Also, by serving the information used proactively. This paper suggests a dynamic framework through the architectural design process of the space based on the principles of computational methods and context-awareness principles to help in creating a field of changes and modifications. It generates possibilities, concerns about the physical, structural and user contexts. This framework is concerned with five main processes: gathering and analyzing data to generate smart design scenarios, parameters, and attributes; which will be transformed by coding into four types of models. Furthmore, connecting those models together in the interaction model which will represent the context-awareness system. Then, transforming that model into a virtual and ambient environment which represents the physical and real environments, to act as a linkage phase between the users and their activities taking place in that smart space . Finally, the feedback phase from users of that environment to be sure that the design of that smart space fulfill their needs. Therefore, the generated design process will help in designing smarts spaces that can be adapted and controlled to answer the users’ defined goals, needs, and activity.

Keywords: computational methods, context-awareness, design process, smart spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Aamna Tufail, Kajal Kotecha, Iordanis Toursounidis, Ravinder Pabla

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Introduction/Aims: Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML) is a part of leukaemic group of hematopoietic disorders with a varying range of presentations, including oro-facial manifestations. Early recognition and management are essential for favourable outcomes. Materials and Methods: We present our experience, clinical presentation, and clinical photographs of a patient with previously undiagnosed AML who presented with oral symptoms to the emergency department of our hospital. An analysis of clinical characteristics, diagnostic investigations, and management modalities was performed. Results/Statistics: A 58-year-old man presented to A&E reporting an 11-day history of right sided facial swelling, acute TMJ symptoms, and oral discomfort. A dentist ruled out acute dental causes one day post onset of symptoms. Initial assessment was anatomically inconsistent and did not reveal a routine oral or maxillofacial etiology. Detailed clinical examination demonstrated fever, generalised pallor, swelling and erythema of right nasolabial region, bilateral masseteric tenderness, intraoral palatal ecchymosis, palatal ulceration, buccal and labial petechiae, cervical lymphadenopathy, and haematoma on dorsum of right hand overlying right 2nd metacarpal joint. Suspecting a systemic medical cause, we requested haematological investigations, which revealed neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and anaemia. Flow cytometry confirmed CD34 + AML. Oral discomfort was managed symptomatically. The patient was referred to a tertiary care centre for acute haematologic care, where he was treated with IV antibiotics and continuing cycles of chemotherapy. Conclusions/Clinical Relevance: Oro-facial manifestations may be the first clinical sign of AML. Awareness of its features is vital in early diagnosis. In this context, dentists and oral medicine specialists can play an important role in detecting clinical signs of haematological disorders such as AML.

Keywords: acute myeloid leukaemia, oral symptoms, ulceration, diagnosis, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Li-Hua Luu, Alexis Doghmane, Abbas Farhat, Mohammad Sanayei, Pierre Philippe, Pablo Cuellar

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Suction buckets are promising innovative foundations for offshore wind turbines. They generally feature the shape of an inverted bucket and rely on a suction system as a driving agent for their installation into the seabed. Water is pumped out of the buckets that are initially placed to rest on the seabed, creating a net pressure difference across the lid that generates a seepage flow, lowers the soil resistance below the foundation skirt, and drives them effectively into the seabed. The stability of the suction mechanism as well as the possibility of a piping failure (i.e., localized fluidization within the internal soil plug) during their installation are some of the key questions that remain open. The present work deals with an experimental study of localized fluidization by suction within a fixed bucket partially embedded into a submerged artificial soil made of spherical beads. The transient process, from the onset of granular motion until reaching a stationary regime for the fluidization at the embedded bucket wall, is recorded using the combined optical techniques of planar laser-induced fluorescence and refractive index matching. To conduct a systematic study of the piping threshold for the seepage flow, we vary the beads size, the suction pressure, and the initial depth for the bucket. This experimental modelling, by dealing with erosion-related phenomena from a micromechanical perspective, shall provide qualitative scenarios for the local processes at work which are missing in the offshore practice so far.

Keywords: fluidization, micromechanical approach, offshore foundations, suction bucket

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Robert Ogbanje Okwori

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The paper explained the causes low students’ access to university education in Nigeria and how it can be remedied. It is discovered that low students’ access to university education in Nigeria is evident despite these number of universities in the country. In 2006/2007 academic session, 806,089 sat for Joint Unified Matriculation Board Examination (JAMB) into Nigerian universities and only 123,626 (15.3%) were admitted while 2011/2012 academic session, a total of 1,493,604 candidates sat for Joint Unified Matriculation Board Examination (JAMB) into Nigerian universities and only 65,073 (43.57%) were admitted. This necessitates for the research. Therefore, the study posed the following research questions. What are causes of low students’ access to university education in Nigeria? What are the challenges of students’ access to university education in Nigeria? How can students’ access to university education in Nigeria be improved? Sample survey research design was adopted for the study. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data for the study. Six hundred and eighty (680) respondents which comprised of 100 level university students; JAMB Officers and University administrators (Vice Chancellors, Registrars and Admission Officers) were used for the study. Stratified random sampling was applied for adequate representation of respondents from universities in the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Mean was used to answer research questions while Kuder-Richardson formula 20 was used to check the internal consistency of the instrument. The correlation coefficient of the instrument was 0.87. The major findings include the carrying capacity of each university contributes to low students’ access to university education and academic staff were inadequate. From the analysis of the study, it is concluded that the rate of access to university education is low, therefore, every university should establish distance learning programme to reduce university admission crisis. The training infrastructure in the universities should be improved upon by the owners to increase the carrying capacity of each university.

Keywords: access, causes, low, university

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Yong-Sung Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Ho-Jun Jo, Jin-O Kim

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Home Energy Management System (HEMS) which makes the residential consumers contribute to the demand response is attracting attention in recent years. An aim of HEMS is to minimize their electricity cost by controlling the use of their appliances according to electricity price. The use of appliances in HEMS may be affected by some conditions such as external temperature and electricity price. Therefore, the user’s usage pattern of appliances should be modeled according to the external conditions, and the resultant usage pattern is related to the user’s comfortability on use of each appliances. This paper proposes a methodology to model the usage pattern based on the historical data with the copula function. Through copula function, the usage range of each appliance can be obtained and is able to satisfy the appropriate user’s comfort according to the external conditions for next day. Within the usage range, an optimal scheduling for appliances would be conducted so as to minimize an electricity cost with considering user’s comfort. Among the home appliance, electric heater (EH) is a representative appliance which is affected by the external temperature. In this paper, an optimal scheduling algorithm for an electric heater (EH) is addressed based on the method of branch and bound. As a result, scenarios for the EH usage are obtained according to user’s comfort levels and then the residential consumer would select the best scenario. The case study shows the effects of the proposed algorithm compared with the traditional operation of the EH, and it also represents impacts of the comfort level on the scheduling result.

Keywords: load scheduling, usage pattern, user’s comfort, copula function, branch and bound, electric heater

Procedia PDF Downloads 563

Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

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Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 334