Search results for: rainfall magnitude and frequency
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5295

Search results for: rainfall magnitude and frequency

3135 The Investigation on the Status of Disaster Prevention and Reduction Knowledge in Rural Pupils in China

Authors: Jian-Na Zhang, Xiao-Li Chen, Si-Jian Li

Abstract:

Objective: In order to investigate current status on knowledge of disaster prevention and reduction in rural pupils, to explore education method on disaster prevention and reduction for rural pupils. Method: A questionnaire was designed based on literature review. Convenient sampling was used in the survey. The questionnaire survey was conducted among 180 students from Huodehong town central primary school which located in Ludian county of Zhaotong city in Yunnan province, where 6.5 magnitude earthquake happened in 2014. The result indicated that the pupils’ knowledge and skills on disaster prevention and reduction relevant poor. The source for them to obtain the knowledge of disaster prevention and reduction included TV (68.9%), followed by their parents (43.9%), while only 24.4% of knowledge is from the teachers. The scores about different natural disaster are ranking in descending order: earthquake (5.39 ±1.27), floods (3.77 ±1.17); debris flow (2.81 ±1.05), family fire (2.16± 0.96). And the disaster experience did not help the pupils enhance the knowledge reserves. There is no statistical significance (P > 0.05) in knowledge scores of disaster prevention and reduction between experienced and non-experienced group. Conclusion: The local disaster experiences did not draw the attention of parents and schools. Knowledge popularization of disaster for local pupils is extremely urgent. It is necessary to take advantage of more mediums to popularize the knowledge and skills about disaster prevention and reduction, for example, family education, school education, newspapers, brochures, etc. The training courses on disaster prevention and reduction which are based on the characteristics of the local rural pupils and the characteristics of the local disasters would be useful.

Keywords: rural, pupils, disaster prevention and reduction knowledge, popularization

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3134 Physical Habitat Simulation and Comparison within a Lerma River Reach, with Respect to the Same but Modified Reach, to Create a Linear Park

Authors: Garcia-Rodriguez Ezequiel, Luis A. Ochoa-Franco, Adrian I. Cervantes-Servin

Abstract:

In this work, the Ictalurus punctatus species estimated available physical habitat is compared with the estimated physical habitat for the same but modified river reach, with the aim of creating a linear park, along a length of 5 500 m. To determine the effect of ecological park construction, on physical habitat of the Lerma river stretch of study, first, the available habitat for the Ictalurus punctatus species was estimated through the simulation of the physical habitat, by using surveying, hydraulics, and habitat information gotten at the river reach in its actual situation. Second, it was estimated the available habitat for the above species, upon the simulation of the physical habitat through the proposed modification for the ecological park creation. Third, it is presented a comparison between both scenarios in terms of available habitat estimated for Ictalurus punctatus species, concluding that in cases of adult and spawning life stages, changes in the channel to create an ecological park would produce a considerable loss of potentially usable habitat (PUH), while in the case of the juvenile life stage PUH remains virtually unchanged, and in the case of life stage fry the PUH would increase due to the presence of velocities and depths of lesser magnitude, due to the presence of minor flow rates and lower volume of the wet channel. It is expected that habitat modification for linear park construction may produce the lack of Ictalurus punktatus species conservation at the river reach of the study.

Keywords: Habitat modification, Ictalurus punctatus, Lerma, river, linear park

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3133 Characteristics of Interaction Forces Acting on a Newly-Design Rotary Blade for Thai Walking Tractor

Authors: Sirisak Choedkiatphon, Tanya Niyamapa

Abstract:

This research aimed to indeed understand the soil-rotary blade interaction of the newly-design rotary blade for Thai walking tractor. Therefore, this study was carried out to clarify the characteristics of the horizontal and the vertical forces and the moment around a rotary shaft of prototype rotary blade 15 lengthwise slice angle. It was set up and tested in laboratory soil bin at Kasetsart University under sandy loam and clay soil at soil dry bulk density and soil specific weight of 9.81 kN/m3 and 11.3% (d.b.), respectively. The tests were conducted at travel speeds of 0.069 and 0.142 m/s and rotational speeds of 150, 250 and 350 rpm. The characteristic of pushing-forward and lifting-up forces and moment around a rotor shaft were obtained by using the EOR transducer. Also, the acting point of resultant force of these soil-blade reaction forces was determined. The pushing-forward and lifting-up forces, moment around a rotor shaft and resultant force increased at higher travel speed and higher soil moisture content. In tilling stage, the acting points of resultant force located inside the circumstance of the blade locus. The results showed that the variation of magnitude and direction of pushing-forward, lifting-up and resultant forces corresponded to soil-blade interaction of the newly-design in tilling stage.

Keywords: rotary blde, soil-blade interaction, walking tractor, clay, sandy loam

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3132 An Integrated Multisensor/Modeling Approach Addressing Climate Related Extreme Events

Authors: H. M. El-Askary, S. A. Abd El-Mawla, M. Allali, M. M. El-Hattab, M. El-Raey, A. M. Farahat, M. Kafatos, S. Nickovic, S. K. Park, A. K. Prasad, C. Rakovski, W. Sprigg, D. Struppa, A. Vukovic

Abstract:

A clear distinction between weather and climate is a necessity because while they are closely related, there are still important differences. Climate change is identified when we compute the statistics of the observed changes in weather over space and time. In this work we will show how the changing climate contribute to the frequency, magnitude and extent of different extreme events using a multi sensor approach with some synergistic modeling activities. We are exploring satellite observations of dust over North Africa, Gulf Region and the Indo Gangetic basin as well as dust versus anthropogenic pollution events over the Delta region in Egypt and Seoul through remote sensing and utilize the behavior of the dust and haze on the aerosol optical properties. Dust impact on the retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas is also presented. In this study we also focus on the identification and monitoring of a massive dust plume that blew off the western coast of Africa towards the Atlantic on October 8th, 2012 right before the development of Hurricane Sandy. There is evidence that dust aerosols played a non-trivial role in the cyclogenesis process of Sandy. Moreover, a special dust event "An American Haboob" in Arizona is discussed as it was predicted hours in advance because of the great improvement we have in numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events. Therefore we performed a full numerical simulation to that event using the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME–DREAM after generating a mask of the potentially dust productive regions using land cover and vegetation data obtained from satellites. Climate change also contributes to the deterioration of different marine habitats. In that regard we are also presenting some work dealing with change detection analysis of Marine Habitats over the city of Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt. The motivation for this work came from the fact that coral reefs at Hurghada have undergone significant decline. They are damaged, displaced, polluted, stepped on, and blasted off, in addition to the effects of climate change on the reefs. One of the most pressing issues affecting reef health is mass coral bleaching that result from an interaction between human activities and climatic changes. Over another location, namely California, we have observed that it exhibits highly-variable amounts of precipitation across many timescales, from the hourly to the climate timescale. Frequently, heavy precipitation occurs, causing damage to property and life (floods, landslides, etc.). These extreme events, variability, and the lack of good, medium to long-range predictability of precipitation are already a challenge to those who manage wetlands, coastal infrastructure, agriculture and fresh water supply. Adding on to the current challenges for long-range planning is climate change issue. It is known that La Niña and El Niño affect precipitation patterns, which in turn are entwined with global climate patterns. We have studied ENSO impact on precipitation variability over different climate divisions in California. On the other hand the Nile Delta has experienced lately an increase in the underground water table as well as water logging, bogging and soil salinization. Those impacts would pose a major threat to the Delta region inheritance and existing communities. There has been an undergoing effort to address those vulnerabilities by looking into many adaptation strategies.

Keywords: remote sensing, modeling, long range transport, dust storms, North Africa, Gulf Region, India, California, climate extremes, sea level rise, coral reefs

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3131 Modeling Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield in Geba Catchment, Ethiopia

Authors: Gebremedhin Kiros, Amba Shetty, Lakshman Nandagiri

Abstract:

Soil erosion is a major threat to the sustainability of land and water resources in the catchment and there is a need to identify critical areas of erosion so that suitable conservation measures may be adopted. The present study was taken up to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion and daily sediment yield in Geba catchment (5137 km2) located in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Geba catchment using data pertaining to rainfall, climate, soils, topography and land use/land cover (LU/LC) for the historical period 2000-2013. LU/LC distribution in the catchment was characterized using LANDSAT satellite imagery and the GIS-based ArcSWAT version of the model. The model was calibrated and validated using sediment concentration measurements made at the catchment outlet. The catchment was divided into 13 sub-basins and based on estimated soil erosion, these were prioritized on the basis of susceptibility to soil erosion. Model results indicated that the average sediment yield estimated of the catchment was 12.23 tons/ha/yr. The generated soil loss map indicated that a large portion of the catchment has high erosion rates resulting in significantly large sediment yield at the outlet. Steep and unstable terrain, the occurrence of highly erodible soils and low vegetation cover appeared to favor high soil erosion. Results obtained from this study prove useful in adopting in targeted soil and water conservation measures and promote sustainable management of natural resources in the Geba and similar catchments in the region.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Geba catchment, MUSLE, sediment yield, SWAT Model

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3130 Electromagnetic Tuned Mass Damper Approach for Regenerative Suspension

Authors: S. Kopylov, C. Z. Bo

Abstract:

This study is aimed at exploring the possibility of energy recovery through the suppression of vibrations. The article describes design of electromagnetic dynamic damper. The magnetic part of the device performs the function of a tuned mass damper, thereby providing both energy regeneration and damping properties to the protected mass. According to the theory of tuned mass damper, equations of mathematical models were obtained. Then, under given properties of current system, amplitude frequency response was investigated. Therefore, main ideas and methods for further research were defined.

Keywords: electromagnetic damper, oscillations with two degrees of freedom, regeneration systems, tuned mass damper

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3129 Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Historical Data Using Modern Prediction Methods in Selected Sites of Geba Catchment, Ethiopia

Authors: Halefom Kidane

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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3128 Barrier Characteristics of Molecular Semiconductor-Based Organic/Inorganic Au/C₄₂H₂₈/n-InP Hybrid Junctions

Authors: Bahattin Abay

Abstract:

Thin film of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon rubrene, C₄₂H₂₈ (5,6,11,12-tetraphenyltetracene), has been surfaced on Moderately Doped (MD) n-InP substrate as an interfacial layer by means of spin coating technique for the electronic modification of Au/MD n-InP structure. Ex situ annealing has been carried out at 150 °C for three minutes under a brisk flow of nitrogen for the better adhesion of the deposited film with the substrate surface. Room temperature electrical characterization has been performed on the C₄₂H₂₈/MD n-InP hybrid junctions by current-voltage (I-V) and capacitance-voltage (C-V) measurement in the dark. It has been seen that the C₄₂H₂₈/MD n-InP structure demonstrated extraordinary rectifying behavior. An effective barrier height (BH) as high as 0.743 eV, along with an ideality factor very close to unity (n=1.203), has been achieved for C₄₂H₂₈/n-InP organic/inorganic device. A thin C₄₂H₂₈ interfacial layer between Au and MD n-InP also reduce the reverse leakage current by almost four orders of magnitude and enhance the BH about 0.278 eV. This good performance of the device is ascribed to the passivation effect of organic interfacial layer between Au and n-InP. By using C-V measurement, in addition, the value of BH of the C₄₂H₂₈/n-InP organic/inorganic hybrid junctions have been obtained as 0.796 eV. It has been seen that both of the BH value (0.743 and 0.796 eV) for the organic/inorganic hybrid junction obtained I-V and C-V measurement, respectively are significantly larger than that of the conventional Au/n-InP structure (0.465 and 0.503 eV). It was also seen that the device had good sensitivity to the light under 100 mW/cm² illumination conditions. The obtained results indicated that modification of the interfacial potential barrier for Metal/n-InP junctions might be attained using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon thin interlayer C₄₂H₂₈.

Keywords: I-V and C-V measurements, heterojunction, n-InP, rubrene, surface passivation

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3127 Deceptive Behaviors of Young Children in a Guessing Game

Authors: Desiderio S. Camitan IV

Abstract:

The standard view of lay people in the Philippine society is that young children do not lie and that if they do, their lies are easily detectable. The present study investigated the deceptive behaviors of 373 children aged 2-8 using the temptation resistance paradigm. Children were instructed that they will participate in a game where they are to guess the color of a candy placed inside a downward facing cup. After the instruction was given to them, they are left alone in a room with the cup on top of a table for 15 minutes. The researcher observed the number of children who peeked at the card as well as number of those who confessed to the said act. Age, gender, IQ, and having autism seem to influence the frequency of peeking and confession of the participants.

Keywords: cheating, lying, dishonesty, young children, guessing game, autism

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3126 Integrated Lateral Flow Electrochemical Strip for Leptospirosis Diagnosis

Authors: Wanwisa Deenin, Abdulhadee Yakoh, Chahya Kreangkaiwal, Orawon Chailapakul, Kanitha Patarakul, Sudkate Chaiyo

Abstract:

LipL32 is an outer membrane protein present only on pathogenic Leptospira species, which are the causative agent of leptospirosis. Leptospirosis symptoms are often misdiagnosed with other febrile illnesses as the clinical manifestations are non-specific. Therefore, an accurate diagnostic tool for leptospirosis is indeed critical for proper and prompt treatment. Typical diagnosis via serological assays is generally performed to assess the antibodies produced against Leptospira. However, their delayed antibody response and complicated procedure are undoubtedly limited the practical utilization especially in primary care setting. Here, we demonstrate for the first time an early-stage detection of LipL32 by an integrated lateral-flow immunoassay with electrochemical readout (eLFIA). A ferrocene trace tag was monitored via differential pulse voltammetry operated on a smartphone-based device, thus allowing for on-field testing. Superior performance in terms of the lowest detectable limit of detection (LOD) of 8.53 pg/mL and broad linear dynamic range (5 orders of magnitude) among other sensors available thus far was established. Additionally, the developed test strip provided a straightforward yet sensitive approach for diagnosis of leptospirosis using the collected human sera from patients, in which the results were comparable to the real-time polymerase chain reaction technique.

Keywords: leptospirosis, electrochemical detection, lateral flow immunosensor, point-of-care testing, early-stage detection

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3125 Increase in Specificity of MicroRNA Detection by RT-qPCR Assay Using a Specific Extension Sequence

Authors: Kyung Jin Kim, Jiwon Kwak, Jae-Hoon Lee, Soo Suk Lee

Abstract:

We describe an innovative method for highly specific detection of miRNAs using a specially modified method of poly(A) adaptor RT-qPCR. We use uniquely designed specific extension sequence, which plays important role in providing an opportunity to affect high specificity of miRNA detection. This method involves two steps of reactions as like previously reported and which are poly(A) tailing and reverse-transcription followed by real-time PCR. Firstly, miRNAs are extended by a poly(A) tailing reaction and then converted into cDNA. Here, we remarkably reduced the reaction time by the application of short length of poly(T) adaptor. Next, cDNA is hybridized to the 3’-end of a specific extension sequence which contains miRNA sequence and results in producing a novel PCR template. Thereafter, the SYBR Green-based RT-qPCR progresses with a universal poly(T) adaptor forward primer and a universal reverse primer. The target miRNA, miR-106b in human brain total RNA, could be detected quantitatively in the range of seven orders of magnitude, which demonstrate that the assay displays a dynamic range of at least 7 logs. In addition, the better specificity of this novel extension-based assay against well known poly(A) tailing method for miRNA detection was confirmed by melt curve analysis of real-time PCR product, clear gel electrophoresis and sequence chromatogram images of amplified DNAs.

Keywords: microRNA(miRNA), specific extension sequence, RT-qPCR, poly(A) tailing assay, reverse transcription

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3124 Analyzing the Impact of Migration on HIV and AIDS Incidence Cases in Malaysia

Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

Abstract:

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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3123 Spectral Analysis Applied to Variables of Oil Wells Profiling

Authors: Suzana Leitão Russo, Mayara Laysa de Oliveira Silva, José Augusto Andrade Filho, Vitor Hugo Simon

Abstract:

Currently, seismic methods and prospecting methods are commonly applied in the oil industry and, according to the information reported every day; oil is a source of non-renewable energy. It is easier to understand why the ownership of areas of oil extraction is coveted by many nations. It is necessary to think about ways that will enable the maximization of oil production. The technique of spectral analysis can be used to analyze the behavior of the variables already defined in oil well the profile. The main objective is to verify the series dependence of variables, and to model the variables using the frequency domain to observe the model residuals.

Keywords: oil, well, spectral analysis, oil extraction

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3122 Accounting for Rice Productivity Heterogeneity in Ghana: The Two-Step Stochastic Metafrontier Approach

Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

Abstract:

Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Keywords: efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach

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3121 Voltage Stability Margin-Based Approach for Placement of Distributed Generators in Power Systems

Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

Abstract:

Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

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3120 System-level Factors, Presidential Coattails and Mass Preferences: Dynamics of Party Nationalization in Contemporary Brazil (1990-2014)

Authors: Kazuma Mizukoshi

Abstract:

Are electoral politics in contemporary Brazil still local in organization and focus? The importance of this question lies in its paradoxical trajectories. First, often coupled with institutional and sociological ‘barriers’ (e.g. the selection and election of candidates relatively loyal to the local party leadership, the predominance of territorialized electoral campaigns, and the resilience of political clientelism), the regionalization of electoral politics has been a viable and practical solution especially for pragmatic politicians in some Latin American countries. On the other hand, some leftist parties that once served as minor opposition forces at the time of foundational or initial elections have certainly expanded vote shares. Some were eventually capable of holding most (if not a majority) legislative seats since the 1990s. Though not yet rigorously demonstrated, theoretically implicit in the rise of leftist parties in legislative elections is the gradual (if not complete) nationalization of electoral support—meaning the growing equality of a party’s vote share across electoral districts and its change over time. This study will develop four hypotheses to explain the dynamics of party nationalization in contemporary Brazil: district magnitude, ethnic and class fractionalization of each district, voting intentions in federal and state executive elections, and finally the left-right stances of electorates. The study will demonstrate these hypotheses by closely working with the Brazilian Electoral Study (2002-2014).

Keywords: party nationalization, presidential coattails, Left, Brazil

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3119 Forecast Dispersion, Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Authors: Guoyu Lin

Abstract:

This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.

Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns

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3118 Supervised Machine Learning Approach for Studying the Effect of Different Joint Sets on Stability of Mine Pit Slopes Under the Presence of Different External Factors

Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

Abstract:

Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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3117 A Case Study of Physical and Psychological Forces in the Nigerian Criminal and Military Interrogations

Authors: Onimisi Ekuh Abdullahi, Lasbat Omoshalewa Akinsemoyin

Abstract:

In Nigeria, over two decades now, there has been a steady increase in the insecurity of human lives and physical properties. In the South-South Nigeria, there is an acute insecurity of militants destroying oil pipe-lines and kidnapping cases; in the Middle-Belt zone, insecurity centers on kidnapping and in a few states crises between Herdsmen and Farmers range like wildfire; in the South-Western zone, kidnapping is vile, in the North-East zone the issue of Boko Haram has become World-wide concern, and in North-west zone, cattle rustlers and religious crisis are of great concern. At the initial stage, the Nigerian Police Force was called upon to quell the crisis. It soon became obvious that the dimension of the crisis was beyond police force. The Nigerian Armed Forces were called to maintain peace and order because the magnitude of the crisis was threatening the national unity and cohesion. The main objective of this paper, was to examine the investigative techniques of criminal by the military in Nigeria. Specifically to examine the physical and psychological force; the abusive techniques and tactics; and suggest modern psychological techniques of interrogating criminals accepted to Human Right Activists and the rule of law. The process is to create room behaviour and practices that carefully monitored the trust and reliability of admissions produced by Psychological manipulative process in Nigeria.

Keywords: military, Nigerian criminal, physical, psychological force

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3116 The Effects of Seasonal Variation on the Microbial-N Flow to the Small Intestine and Prediction of Feed Intake in Grazing Karayaka Sheep

Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

Abstract:

The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake

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3115 Predicting Automotive Interior Noise Including Wind Noise by Statistical Energy Analysis

Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa

Abstract:

The applications of soundproof materials for reduction of high frequency automobile interior noise have been researched. This paper presents a sound pressure prediction technique including wind noise by Hybrid Statistical Energy Analysis (HSEA) in order to reduce weight of acoustic insulations. HSEA uses both analytical SEA and experimental SEA. As a result of chassis dynamo test and road test, the validity of SEA modeling was shown, and utility of the method was confirmed.

Keywords: vibration, noise, road noise, statistical energy analysis

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3114 Characterisation of Wind-Driven Ventilation in Complex Terrain Conditions

Authors: Daniel Micallef, Damien Bounaudet, Robert N. Farrugia, Simon P. Borg, Vincent Buhagiar, Tonio Sant

Abstract:

The physical effects of upstream flow obstructions such as vegetation on cross-ventilation phenomena of a building are important for issues such as indoor thermal comfort. Modelling such effects in Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations may also be challenging. The aim of this work is to establish the cross-ventilation jet behaviour in such complex terrain conditions as well as to provide guidelines on the implementation of CFD numerical simulations in order to model complex terrain features such as vegetation in an efficient manner. The methodology consists of onsite measurements on a test cell coupled with numerical simulations. It was found that the cross-ventilation flow is highly turbulent despite the very low velocities encountered internally within the test cells. While no direct measurement of the jet direction was made, the measurements indicate that flow tends to be reversed from the leeward to the windward side. Modelling such a phenomenon proves challenging and is strongly influenced by how vegetation is modelled. A solid vegetation tends to predict better the direction and magnitude of the flow than a porous vegetation approach. A simplified terrain model was also shown to provide good comparisons with observation. The findings have important implications on the study of cross-ventilation in complex terrain conditions since the flow direction does not remain trivial, as with the traditional isolated building case.

Keywords: complex terrain, cross-ventilation, wind driven ventilation, wind resource, computational fluid dynamics, CFD

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3113 A Study of Preliminary Findings of Behavioral Patterns under Captive Conditions in Chinkara (Gazella bennettii) with Prospects for Future Conservation

Authors: Muhammad Idnan, Arshad Javid, Muhammad Nadeem

Abstract:

The present study was conducted from April 2013 to March 2014 to observe the behavioral parameters of Chinkara (Gazella bennettii) under captive conditions by comparing the captive-born and wild-caught animals for conservation strategies. Understanding the behavioral conformations plays a significant role in captive management. Due to human population explosion and mechanized hunting, the captive breeding seems to be the best way for sports hunting, bush meat, for leather industry and horns for traditional medicinal usage. Primarily, captive management has been used on trial and error basis due to deficiency of ethology of this least concerned species. Behavior of [(20 wild-caught (WC) and 10 captive-bred (CB)] adult Chinkara was observed at captive breeding facilities for ungulates at Ravi Campus, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences at Kasur district which is situated on southeast side of Lahore. The average annual rainfall is about 650 mm, with frequent raining during monsoon. A focal sample was used to observe the various behavioral patterns for CB and WC chinkara. A similarity was observed in behavioral parameters in WC and CB animals, however, when the differences were considered, WC male deer showed a significantly higher degree of agonistic interaction as compared to the CB male chinkara. These findings suggest that there is no immediate impact of captivity on behavior of chinkara nevertheless 10 generations of captivity. It is suggested that the Chinkara is not suitable for domestication and for successful deer farming, a further study is recommended for ethology of chinkara.

Keywords: Chinkara (Gazella bennettii), domestication, deer farming, ex-situ conservation

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3112 Association between a Serotonin Re-Uptake Transporter Gene Polymorphism and Mucosal Serotonin Level in Women Patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome and Healthy Control: A Pilot Study from Northern India

Authors: Sunil Kumar, Uday C. Ghoshal

Abstract:

Background and aims: Serotonin (5-hydroxtryptamine, 5-HT) is an important factor in gut function, playing key roles in intestinal peristalsis and secretion, and in sensory signaling in the brain-gut axis. Removal from its sites of action is mediated by a specific protein called the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT). Polymorphisms in the promoter region of the SERT gene have effects on transcriptional activity, resulting in altered 5-HT reuptake efficiency. Functional polymorphisms may underlie disturbance in gut function in individuals suffering with disorders such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The aim of this study was to assess the potential association between SERT polymorphisms and the diarrhea predominant IBS (D-IBS) phenotype Subjects: A total of 36 northern Indian female patients and 55 female northern Indian healthy controls (HC) were subjected to genotyping. Methods: Leucocyte DNA of all subjects was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction based technologies for SERT polymorphisms, specifically the insertion/deletion polymorphism in the promoter (SERT-P). Statistical analysis was performed to assess association of SERT polymorphism allele with the D-IBS phenotype. Results: The frequency of distribution of SERT-P gene was comparable between female patients with IBS and HC (p = 0.086). However, frequency of SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype was significantly higher in female patients with D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [17/19 (89.5%) vs. 4/12 (33.3%) vs. 1/5 (20%), p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [Median, range (159.26, 98.78–212.1) vs. 110.4, 67.87–143.53 vs. 92.34, 78.8–166.3 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in female patients with IBS with SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype compared deletion/insertion and insertion/insertion [157.65, 67.87–212.1 vs. 110.4, 78.1–143.32 vs. 100.5, 69.1–132.03 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. Patients with D-IBS with deletion/deletion genotype more often reported symptoms of abdominal pain, discomfort (p=0.025) and bloating (p=0.039). Symptoms development following lactose ingestion was strongly associated with D-IBS and SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype (p=0.004). Conclusions: Significant association was observed between D-IBS and the SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype, suggesting that the serotonin transporter is a potential candidate gene for D-IBS in women.

Keywords: serotonin, SERT, inflammatory bowel disease, genetic polymorphism

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3111 Assessing Psycho-Social Stressors for Chronically Infected Hepatitis C Virus Patients in Egypt

Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Dalia M. Elmosalami, Walaa A. Fouad, Abla G. Khalifa, Lobna A. El Etreby, Mohamed AbdelRahman

Abstract:

People with hepatitis C are likely to experience psychological distress related to adjustment issues following diagnosis. Objective: The study was conducted to determine the psycho-social stressors accompanying Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection. The study focused on immediate and later on reactions to being diagnosed as infected HCV patients. Effect of HCV on disruption of patients’ relationships in term of family relationship and friendship, employment and financial status was assessed. The magnitude and causes of the social stigma and its relation to awareness about illness, level of education were also assessed. Methods: During this study the subjective experiences of people having HCV was explored through a designed questionnaire targeted 540 cases; 359 males and 181 females from ten out of 21 National Treatment Reference Centers of National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institutes of Ministry of Health (MOH) hospitals. The study was conducted along a period of six months from September 2011 to March 2012. Results: The study revealed that the financial problems are the commonest problems faced by 75.5 % of the cases. More than 70% of the cases suffered from immediate sadness versus 67.4% suffered from worry. Social stigma was reported by 13 % of HCV +patients, the majority of which were females. Conclusions: Exploring the psychosocial consequences of HCV infection can act as pressing motivators for behavior change needed for limiting HCV endemicity in Egypt.

Keywords: Egypt, HCV infection, psycho-social adjustment, stigma

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3110 Research on Configuration of Large-Scale Linear Array Feeder Truss Parabolic Cylindrical Antenna of Satellite

Authors: Chen Chuanzhi, Guo Yunyun

Abstract:

The large linear array feeding parabolic cylindrical antenna of the satellite has the ability of large-area line focusing, multi-directional beam clusters simultaneously in a certain azimuth plane and elevation plane, corresponding quickly to different orientations and different directions in a wide frequency range, dual aiming of frequency and direction, and combining space power. Therefore, the large-diameter parabolic cylindrical antenna has become one of the new development directions of spaceborne antennas. Limited by the size of the rocked fairing, the large-diameter spaceborne antenna is required to be small mass and have a deployment function. After being orbited, the antenna can be deployed by expanding and be stabilized. However, few types of structures can be used to construct large cylindrical shell structures in existing structures, which greatly limits the development and application of such antennas. Aiming at high structural efficiency, the geometrical characteristics of parabolic cylinders and mechanism topological mapping law to the expandable truss are studied, and the basic configuration of deployable truss with cylindrical shell is structured. Then a modular truss parabolic cylindrical antenna is designed in this paper. The antenna has the characteristics of stable structure, high precision of reflecting surface formation, controllable motion process, high storage rate, and lightweight, etc. On the basis of the overall configuration comprehensive theory and optimization method, the structural stiffness of the modular truss parabolic cylindrical antenna is improved. And the bearing density and impact resistance of support structure are improved based on the internal tension optimal distribution method of reflector forming. Finally, a truss-type cylindrical deployable support structure with high constriction-deployment ratio, high stiffness, controllable deployment, and low mass is successfully developed, laying the foundation for the application of large-diameter parabolic cylindrical antennas in satellite antennas.

Keywords: linear array feed antenna, truss type, parabolic cylindrical antenna, spaceborne antenna

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3109 Complex Network Analysis of Seismicity and Applications to Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting

Authors: Kahlil Fredrick Cui, Marissa Pastor

Abstract:

Earthquakes are complex phenomena, exhibiting complex correlations in space, time, and magnitude. Recently, the concept of complex networks has been used to shed light on the statistical and dynamical characteristics of regional seismicity. In this work, we study the relationships and interactions of seismic regions in Chile, Japan, and the Philippines through weighted and directed complex network analysis. Geographical areas are digitized into cells of fixed dimensions which in turn become the nodes of the network when an earthquake has occurred therein. Nodes are linked if a correlation exists between them as determined and measured by a correlation metric. The networks are found to be scale-free, exhibiting power-law behavior in the distributions of their different centrality measures: the in- and out-degree and the in- and out-strength. The evidence is also found of preferential interaction between seismically active regions through their degree-degree correlations suggesting that seismicity is dictated by the activity of a few active regions. The importance of a seismic region to the overall seismicity is measured using a generalized centrality metric taken to be an indicator of its activity or passivity. The spatial distribution of earthquake activity indicates the areas where strong earthquakes have occurred in the past while the passivity distribution points toward the likely locations an earthquake would occur whenever another one happens elsewhere. Finally, we propose a method that would project the location of the next possible earthquake using the generalized centralities coupled with correlations calculated between the latest earthquakes and a geographical point in the future.

Keywords: complex networks, correlations, earthquake, hazard assessment

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3108 The Evaluation of Event Sport Tourism on Regional Economic Development

Authors: Huei-Wen Lin, Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

Event sport tourism (EST) has become an especially important economic sector around the world. As the magnitude continues to grow, attracting more tourists, media, and investment for the host community, and many local areas/regions and states have identified the expenditures by visitors as a potential source of economic or employment growth. The main purposes of this study are to investigate stakeholders’ insights into the feature of hosting EST and using them as a regional development strategy. Continuing the focus of previous literature on the regional development and economic benefits by hosting EST, a total of fıve semi-structured interview questions are designed and a thematic analysis is employed to conduct with eight key sport and tourism decision makers in Atlanta during July to August 2016. Through the depth interviews, the study will contribute to a better understanding of stakeholders’ decision-making, identifying benefits and constraints as well as leveraging the impacts of hosting EST. These findings have provided stakeholders’ perspectives of hosting EST and using them as a reference of regional development in emerging sport tourism markets in the US. Additionally, this study examines key considerations and issues that affect and are critical to reliable understanding of the economic impacts of hosting EST on the regional development, and it will be able to benefit future management authorities (i.e. governments and communities) in their sport tourism development endeavors in defining and hosting successful EST. Furthermore, the insights gained from the qualitative analysis could help other cities/regions analyzing the economic impacts of hosting EST and using it as an instrument of city development strategy.

Keywords: economic impacts, event sport tourism, regional economic development, longitudinal analysis

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3107 An Analytical Formulation of Pure Shear Boundary Condition for Assessing the Response of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Authors: Raj Banerjee, Aniruddha Sengupta

Abstract:

An earthquake event, associated with a typical fault rupture, initiates at the source, propagates through a rock or soil medium and finally daylights at a surface which might be a populous city. The detrimental effects of an earthquake are often quantified in terms of the responses of superstructures resting on the soil. Hence, there is a need for the estimation of amplification of the bedrock motions due to the influence of local site conditions. In the present study, field borehole log data of Mangalwadi and Walkeswar sites in Mumbai city are considered. The data consists of variation of SPT N-value with the depth of soil. A correlation between shear wave velocity (Vₛ) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Mumbai city has been developed using various existing correlations which is used further for site response analysis. MATLAB program is developed for studying the ground response analysis by performing two dimensional linear and equivalent linear analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites using pure shear (Multi Point Constraint) boundary condition. The model is validated in linear elastic and equivalent linear domain using the popular commercial program, DEEPSOIL. Three actual earthquake motions are selected based on their frequency contents and durations and scaled to a PGA of 0.16g for the present ground response analyses. The results are presented in terms of peak acceleration time history with depth, peak shear strain time history with depth, Fourier amplitude versus frequency, response spectrum at the surface etc. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.374, 3.239 and 2.4245 for Mangalwadi site and 3.42, 3.39, 3.83 for Walkeswar site using 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake, 1989 Loma Gilroy Earthquake and 1987 Whitter Narrows Earthquake, respectively. In the absence of any site-specific response spectrum for the chosen sites in Mumbai, the generated spectrum at the surface may be utilized for the design of any superstructure at these locations.

Keywords: deepsoil, ground response analysis, multi point constraint, response spectrum

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3106 Evaluation of Broad Leaf Weed Herbicides on Weed Control and Productivity of Wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.)

Authors: Kassahun Zewdie

Abstract:

-- A field experiment was conducted at Holetta research center and farmers fields during 2017 and 2018 to determine the effects of haulauxifen-methyl + florasulam (QULEX 200 WG) on broadleaf weeds in wheat. The design was a Randomized Complete Block with three replications. The treatments were included haulauxifen-Methyl + florasulam @ 25gm, 50gm and 75gm ha-1, (King-D) 2, 4-D dimethyl amine @1.0 L ha-1, 2, 4-Dichlorophenoxy acetic acid @1.0 L ha-1 rate (standard check), farmers practice twice hand weeding (25-30 and 55-60) days after sowing and weedy check. Herbicides were applied with knapsack sprayer with a spray volume of 200 L ha-1. The wheat variety “Denda” was sown at 20 cm spacing. The recommended rate of fertilizer was applied. Weed density and biomass were recorded at (25-30 and 55-60) days after sowing. The results revealed that post emergence application of haulauxifen-methyl + florasulam @50gm ha-1 had a significant (P<0.05) effect on Guizotia scabra, Polygonum nepalense, Plantago lanceolata, Galinsoga parviflora, Sonchus spp., Galium spurium, Amaranthus hybridus, Raphanus raphanistrum and Medicago polymorpha population. The magnitude ranged from two to four folds when comparing with weed densities recorded in the unweeded plot. The grain yield harvested from the untreated check plot was significantly lower than the rest treatments. The grain yield was improved by 17.3% over the standard check with better performance.

Keywords: broadleaf, grass, weeds, control

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