Search results for: historical conflicts
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2250

Search results for: historical conflicts

90 Effect of Climate Change on the Genomics of Invasiveness of the Whitefly Bemisia tabaci Species Complex by Estimating the Effective Population Size via a Coalescent Method

Authors: Samia Elfekih, Wee Tek Tay, Karl Gordon, Paul De Barro

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Invasive species represent an increasing threat to food biosecurity, causing significant economic losses in agricultural systems. An example is the sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, which is a complex of morphologically indistinguishable species causing average annual global damage estimated at US$2.4 billion. The Bemisia complex represents an interesting model for evolutionary studies because of their extensive distribution and potential for invasiveness and population expansion. Within this complex, two species, Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) have invaded well beyond their home ranges whereas others, such as Indian Ocean (IO) and Australia (AUS), have not. In order to understand why some Bemisia species have become invasive, genome-wide sequence scans were used to estimate population dynamics over time and relate these to climate. The Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) method as implemented in BEAST was used to infer the historical effective population size. In order to overcome sampling bias, the populations were combined based on geographical origin. The datasets used for this particular analysis are genome-wide SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) called separately in each of the following groups: Sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso), Europe (Spain, France, Greece and Croatia), USA (Arizona), Mediterranean-Middle East (Israel, Italy), Middle East-Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Iran) and Reunion Island. The non-invasive ‘AUS’ species endemic to Australia was used as an outgroup. The main findings of this study show that the BSP for the Sub-Saharan African MED population is different from that observed in MED populations from the Mediterranean Basin, suggesting evolution under a different set of environmental conditions. For MED, the effective size of the African (Burkina Faso) population showed a rapid expansion ≈250,000-310,000 years ago (YA), preceded by a period of slower growth. The European MED populations (i.e., Spain, France, Croatia, and Greece) showed a single burst of expansion at ≈160,000-200,000 YA. The MEAM1 populations from Israel and Italy and the ones from Iran and Turkmenistan are similar as they both show the earlier expansion at ≈250,000-300,000 YA. The single IO population lacked the latter expansion but had the earlier one. This pattern is shared with the Sub-Saharan African (Burkina Faso) MED, suggesting IO also faced a similar history of environmental change, which seems plausible given their relatively close geographical distributions. In conclusion, populations within the invasive species MED and MEAM1 exhibited signatures of population expansion lacking in non-invasive species (IO and AUS) during the Pleistocene, a geological epoch marked by repeated climatic oscillations with cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. These expansions strongly suggested the potential of some Bemisia species’ genomes to affect their adaptability and invasiveness.

Keywords: whitefly, RADseq, invasive species, SNP, climate change

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89 Globalization of Pesticide Technology and Sustainable Agriculture

Authors: Gagandeep Kaur

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The pesticide industry is a big supplier of agricultural inputs. The uses of pesticides control weeds, fungal diseases, etc., which causes of yield losses in agricultural production. In agribusiness and agrichemical industry, Globalization of markets, competition and innovation are the dominant trends. By the tradition of increasing the productivity of agro-systems through generic, universally applicable technologies, innovation in the agrichemical industry is limited. The marketing of technology of agriculture needs to deal with some various trends such as locally-organized forces that envision regionalized sustainable agriculture in the future. Agricultural production has changed dramatically over the past century. Before World War second agricultural production was featured as a low input of money, high labor, mixed farming and low yields. Although mineral fertilizers were applied already in the second half of the 19th century, most f the crops were restricted by local climatic, geological and ecological conditions. After World War second, in the period of reconstruction, political and socioeconomic pressure changed the nature of agricultural production. For a growing population, food security at low prices and securing farmer income at acceptable levels became political priorities. Current agricultural policy the new European common agricultural policy is aimed to reduce overproduction, liberalization of world trade and the protection of landscape and natural habitats. Farmers have to increase the quality of their productivity and they have to control costs because of increased competition from the world market. Pesticides should be more effective at lower application doses, less toxic and not pose a threat to groundwater. There is a big debate taking place about how and whether to mitigate the intensive use of pesticides. This debate is about the future of agriculture which is sustainable agriculture. This is possible by moving away from conventional agriculture. Conventional agriculture is featured as high inputs and high yields. The use of pesticides in conventional agriculture implies crop production in a wide range. To move away from conventional agriculture is possible through the gradual adoption of less disturbing and polluting agricultural practices at the level of the cropping system. For a healthy environment for crop production in the future there is a need for the maintenance of chemical, physical or biological properties. There is also required to minimize the emission of volatile compounds in the atmosphere. Companies are limiting themselves to a particular interpretation of sustainable development, characterized by technological optimism and production-maximizing. So the main objective of the paper will present the trends in the pesticide industry and in agricultural production in the era of Globalization. The second objective is to analyze sustainable agriculture. Companies of pesticides seem to have identified biotechnology as a promising alternative and supplement to the conventional business of selling pesticides. The agricultural sector is in the process of transforming its conventional mode of operation. Some experts give suggestions to farmers to move towards precision farming and some suggest engaging in organic farming. The methodology of the paper will be historical and analytical. Both primary and secondary sources will be used.

Keywords: globalization, pesticides, sustainable development, organic farming

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88 Archaeoseismological Evidence for a Possible Destructive Earthquake in the 7th Century AD at the Ancient Sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou (NW Tunisia): Seismotectonic and Structural Implications

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Ali Kadri, Said Maouche, Hayet Khayati Ammar, Ahmed Braham

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The historic sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou are among the most important archaeological monuments in northwestern Tunisia, which flourished as large, wealthy settlements during the Roman and Byzantine periods (2nd to 7th centuries AD). An archaeoseismological study provides the first indications about the impact of a possible ancient strong earthquake in the destruction of these cities. Based on previous archaeological excavation results, including numismatic evidence, pottery, economic meltdown and urban transformation, the abrupt ruin and destruction of the cities of Bulla Regia and Chemtou can be bracketed between 613 and 647 AD. In this study, we carried out the first attempt to use the analysis of earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) that were observed during our field investigations in these two historic cities. The damage includes different types of EAEs: folds on regular pavements, displaced and deformed vaults, folded walls, tilted walls, collapsed keystones in arches, dipping broken corners, displaced-fallen columns, block extrusions in walls, penetrative fractures in brick-made walls and open fractures on regular pavements. These deformations are spread over 10 different sectors or buildings and include 56 measured EAEs. The structural analysis of the identified EAEs can indicate an ancient destructive earthquake that probably destroyed the Bulla Regia and Chemtou archaeological sites. We then analyzed these measurements using structural geological analysis to obtain the maximum horizontal strain of the ground (e.g., S ₕₘₐₓ) on each building-oriented damage. After the collection and analysis of these strain datasets, we proceed to plot the orientation of Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories on the map of the archaeological site (Bulla Regia). We concluded that the obtained Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories within this site could then be related to the mean direction of ground motion (oscillatory movement of the ground) triggered by a seismic event, as documented for some historical earthquakes across the world. These Sₕₘₐₓ orientations closely match the current active stress field, as highlighted by some instrumental events in northern Tunisia. In terms of the seismic source, we strongly suggest that the reactivation of a neotectonic strike-slip fault trending N50E must be responsible for this probable historic earthquake and the recent instrumental seismicity in this area. This fault segment, affecting the folded quaternary deposits south of Jebel Rebia, passes through the monument of Bulla Regia. Stress inversion of the observed and measured data along this fault shows an N150 - 160 trend of Sₕₘₐₓ under a transpressional tectonic regime, which is quite consistent with the GPS data and the state of the current stress field in this region.

Keywords: NW Tunisia, archaeoseismology, earthquake archaeological effect, bulla regia - Chemtou, seismotectonic, neotectonic fault

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87 Edmonton Urban Growth Model as a Support Tool for the City Plan Growth Scenarios Development

Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

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86 Modern Architecture and the Scientific World Conception

Authors: Sean Griffiths

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Introduction: This paper examines the expression of ‘objectivity’ in architecture in the context of the post-war rejection of this concept. It aims to re-examine the question in light of the assault on truth characterizing contemporary culture and of the unassailable truth of the climate emergency. The paper analyses the search for objective truth as it was prosecuted in the Modern Movement in the early 20th century, looking at the extent to which this quest was successful in contributing to the development of a radically new, politically-informed architecture and the extent to which its particular interpretation of objectivity, limited that development. The paper studies the influence of the Vienna Circle philosophers Rudolph Carnap and Otto Neurath on the pedagogy of the Bauhaus and the architecture of the Neue Sachlichkeit in Germany. Their logical positivism sought to determine objective truths through empirical analysis, expressed in an austere formal language as part of a ‘scientific world conception’ which would overcome metaphysics and unverifiable mystification. These ideas, and the concurrent prioritizing of measurement as the determinant of environmental quality, became key influences in the socially-driven architecture constructed in the 1920s and 30s by Bauhaus architects in numerous German Cities. Methodology: The paper reviews the history of the early Modern Movement and summarizes accounts of the relationship between the Vienna Circle and the Bauhaus. It looks at key differences in the approaches Neurath and Carnap took to the achievement of their shared philosophical and political aims. It analyses how the adoption of Carnap’s foundationalism influenced the architectural language of modern architecture and compares, through a close reading of the structure of Neurath’s ‘protocol sentences,’ the latter’s alternative approach, speculating on the possibility that its adoption offered a different direction of travel for Modern Architecture. Findings: The paper finds that the adoption of Carnap’s foundationalism, while helping Modern Architecture forge a new visual language, ultimately limited its development and is implicated in its failure to escape the very metaphysics against which it had set itself. It speculates that Neurath’s relational language-based approach to the issue of establishing objectivity has its architectural corollary in the process of revision and renovation that offers new ways an ‘objective’ language of architecture might be developed in a manner that is more responsive to our present-day crisis. Conclusion: The philosophical principles of the Vienna Circle and the architects of the Modern Movement had much in common. Both contributed to radical historical departures which sought to instantiate a world scientific conception in their respective fields, which would attempt to banish mystification and metaphysics and would align itself with socialism. However, in adopting Carnap’s foundationalism as the theoretical basis for the new architecture, Modern Architecture not only failed to escape metaphysics but arguably closed off new avenues of development to itself. The adoption of Neurath’s more open-ended and interactive approach to objectivity offers possibilities for new conceptions of the expression of objectivity in architecture that might be more tailored to the multiple crises we face today.

Keywords: Bauhaus, logical positivism, Neue Sachlichkeit, rationalism, Vienna Circle

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85 Convergence of Strategic Tasks of Business Tourism and Hotel Industry Development: The Case of Georgia

Authors: Nana Katsitadze, Tamar Atanelishvili, Mariam Kutateladze, Alexandre Tushishvili

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In the modern world, tourism has emerged as one of the most powerful economic sectors, and due to its high economic performance, it is attractive to the countries with various levels of economic development. The purpose of the present paper, dedicated to discussing the current problems of tourism development, is to find ways which will contribute to bringing more benefits to the country from the sector. Georgia has been successfully developing leisure tourism for the last ten years, and at the next stage of development business, tourism gains particular importance for Georgia as a means of mitigating the negative socio-economic effects caused by the seasonality of tourism and as a high-cost tourism market. Therefore, the object of the paper is to study the factors that contribute to the development of business tourism. The paper uses the research methods such as system analysis, synthesis, analogy, as well as historical, comparative, economic, and statistical methods of analysis. The information base for the research is made up of the statistics on the functioning of the tourism market of Georgia and foreign countries as well as official data provided by international organizations in the field of tourism. Based on the experience of business tourism around the world and identifying the successful start of business tourism development in Georgia and its causing factors, a business tourism development model for Georgia has been developed. The model might be useful as a methodological material for developing a business tourism development concept for the countries with limited financial resources but rich in tourism resources like Georgia. On the initial stage of development (in absence of conventional centers), the suggested concept of business tourism development involves organizing small and medium-sized meetings both in large cities and in regions by using high-class hotel infrastructure and event management services. Relocation of small meetings to the regions encourages inclusive development of the sector based on increasing the awareness of these regions as tourist sites as well as the increase in employment and sales of other tourism or consumer products. Business tourism increases the number of hotel visitors in the non-seasonal period and improves hotel performance indicators, which enhances the attractiveness of investing in the hotel business. According to the present concept of business tourism development, at the initial stage, development of business tourism is based on the existing markets, including internal market, neighboring markets and the markets of geographically relatively near countries and at the next stage, the concept involves generating tourists from other relatively distant target markets. As a result, by gaining experience in business tourism, enhancing professionalism, increasing awareness and stimulating infrastructure development, the country will prepare the basis to move to a higher stage of tourism development. In addition, the experience showed that for attracting large customers, peculiarities of the field require activation of state policy and active use of marketing mechanisms and tools of the state.

Keywords: hotel industry development, MICE model, MICE strategy, MICE tourism in Georgia

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84 Configuration of Water-Based Features in Islamic Heritage Complexes and Vernacular Architecture: An Analysis into Interactions of Morphology, Form, and Climatic Performance

Authors: Mustaffa Kamal Bashar Mohd Fauzi, Puteri Shireen Jahn Kassim, Nurul Syala Abdul Latip

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It is increasingly realized that sustainability includes both a response to the climatic and cultural context of a place. To assess the cultural context, a morphological analysis of urban patterns from heritage legacies is necessary. While the climatic form is derived from an analysis of meteorological data, cultural patterns and forms must be abstracted from a typological and morphological study. This current study aims to analyzes morphological and formal elements of water-based architectural and urban design of past Islamic vernacular complexes in the hot arid regions and how a vast utilization of water was shaped and sited to act as cooling devices for an entire complex. Apart from its pleasant coolness, water can be used in an aesthetically way such as emphasizing visual axes, vividly enhancing the visual of the surrounding environment and symbolically portraying the act of purity in the design. By comparing 2 case studies based on the analysis of interactions of water features into the form, planning and morphology of 2 Islamic heritage complexes, Fatehpur Sikri (India) and Lahore Fort (Pakistan) with a focus on Shish Mahal of Lahore Fort in terms of their mass, architecture and urban planning, it is agreeable that water plays an integral role in their climatic amelioration via different methods of water conveyance system. Both sites are known for their substantial historical values and prominent for their sustainable vernacular buildings for example; the courtyard of Shish Mahal in Lahore fort are designed to provide continuous coolness by constructing various miniatures water channels that run underneath the paved courtyard. One of the most remarkable features of this system that all water is made dregs-free before it was inducted into these underneath channels. In Fatehpur Sikri, the method of conveyance seems differed from Lahore Fort as the need to supply water to the ridge where Fatehpur Sikri situated is become the major challenges. Thus, the achievement of supplying water to the palatial complexes is solved by placing inhabitable water buildings within the two supply system for raising water. The process of raising the water can be either mechanical or laborious inside the enclosed well and water rising houses. The studies analyzes and abstract the water supply forms, patterns and flows in 3-dimensional shapes through the actions of evaporative cooling and wind-induced ventilation under arid climates. Through the abstraction analytical and descriptive relational morphology of the spatial configurations, the studies can suggest the idealized spatial system that can be used in urban design and complexes which later became a methodological and abstraction tool of sustainability to suit the modern contemporary world.

Keywords: heritage site, Islamic vernacular architecture, water features, morphology, urban design

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83 Revisionist Powers Seeking for Status within the System by Adopting a Compresence of Cooperative and Competitive Strategies

Authors: Mirele Plenishti

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Revisionist powers are sometimes associated to revolutionary and status quo powers, this because along the line representing the level of satisfaction–dissatisfaction with the system, revisionist powers are located in between status quo and revolutionary powers. In particular, the case of revisionist powers seeking for social status adjustments (while having status quo intentions) can, in the first option, be refuted due to the disbelief that dissatisfaction could coexist with status quo intentions – this entailing the possibility to trigger a spiral effect by over-counter-reacting. In the second option, revisionist powers can be underestimated as a real threat, this entailing a potential inadequate reaction. The necessity to well manage international change entails the need to understand better how revisionist powers seek for changes in status, within the system. The complexity of this case is heightened by the propensity of both IR scholars and practitioners to infer states' aims and intentions – towards the system – by looking at their behaviours. This has resulted in the tendency to consider cooperative international behaviours as symptomatic of status quo intentions, and vice versa: status quo intentions as manifested through positive/cooperative behaviours. Similarly, assertive/competitive international behaviours are considered as symptomatic (and vice versa, as manifestations) of revolutionary intentions. Therefore, within complex and composite foreign policies, scholars who disbelieve the existence of revisionist powers with status quo intentions, tend to highlight the negative/competitive elements; while more optimist scholars tend to focus on conforming/cooperative behaviours. Both perspectives, while understanding relevant components of the complex international interaction, still miss a composite overview. In order to closely investigate the strategies adopted by (status quo aiming) revisionist states, and by drawing on sociological studies on peer relations, focused on children's behaviour, one could expect that the compresence of both positive (compliant/cooperative) and negative (competitive/assertive) behaviours, is deliberate, and functional to seeking social status adjustments. Indeed, at the end of 90s, peer relation studies focused on children's behaviour, discerned between the concept of social acceptance (that refers to the degree of social preference assigned to the child– how much is s/he liked) and popularity (which refers to the social status assigned to the child within the group). By building on this distinction, it was possible to identify a link relating social acceptance to prosocial (compliant/cooperative) behaviours and strategies, and popularity to both prosocial and antisocial (aggressive/assertive) behaviours and strategies. Since then, antisocial behaviours ceased to be considered as a proof of social maladjustment and were finally identified as socially recognized strategies adopted in function of the achievement of popularity. Drawing on these results, one can hypothesize that also international status seekers perform both positive (conforming/compliant/cooperative) and negative (assertive/aggressive/competitive) behaviours. Therefore, the link between aims and behaviours loses its strength, since cooperative and competitive behaviours are both means for status seeking strategies that aim at status quo intentions. By carrying out a historical investigation of Italy's foreign policy during fascism, the intent is to closely look at this compresence of behaviours, in order to better qualify its components and their relations.

Keywords: compresence of cooperative and competitive behaviours and strategies, revisionist powers, status quo intentions, status seeking

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82 Authenticity from the Perspective of Locals: What Prince Edward Islanders Had to Say about Authentic Tourism Experiences

Authors: Susan C. Graham

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Authenticity has grown to be ubiquitous within the tourism vernacular. Yet, agreement regarding what authenticity means in relation to tourism remains nebulous. In its simplest form, authenticity in tourism refers to products and experiences that provide insights into the social, cultural, economic, natural, historical, and political life of a place. But this definition is unwieldy in its scope and may not help industry leaders nor tourist in identifying that which is authentic. Much of what is projected as authentic is a carefully curated and crafted message developed by marketers to appeal to visitors and bears little resemblance to the everyday lives of locals. So perhaps one way to identify authentic tourism experiences is to ask locals themselves. The purpose of this study was to explore the perspectives of locals with respect to what constituted an authentic tourism experience in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada. Over 600 volunteers in a tourism research panel were sent a survey asking them to describe authentic PEI experiences within ten sub-categories relevant to the local tourism industry. To make participation more manageable, each respondent was asked their perspectives on any three of the tourism sub-categories. Over 400 individuals responded, providing 1391 unique responses. The responses were grouped thematically using interpretive phenomenological analysis whereby the participants’ responses were clustered into higher order groups to extract meaning. Two interesting thematic observations emerged: first, that respondents tended to clearly articulate and differentiate between intra- versus interpersonal experiences as a means of authentically experiencing PEI; and second, while respondents explicitly valued unstaged experiences over staged, several exceptions to this general rule were expressed. Responses could clearly be grouped into those that emphasized “going off the beaten path,” “exploring pristine and untouched corners,” “lesser known,” “hidden”, “going solo,” and taking the opportunity to “slow down.” Each of these responses was “self” centered, and focused on the visitor discovering and exploring in search of greater self-awareness and inner peace. In contrast, other responses encouraged the interaction of visitors with locals as a means of experiencing the authentic place. Respondents sited “going deep-sea fishing” to learn about local fishers and their communities, stopping by “local farm stands” and speaking with farmers who worked the land for generations,” patronizing “local restaurants, pubs, and b&bs”, and partaking in performances or exhibits by local artists. These kinds of experiences, the respondents claimed, provide an authentic glimpse into a place’s character. The second set of observations focused on the distinction between staged and unstaged experiences, with respondents overwhelmingly advocating for unstaged. Responses were clear in shunning “touristy,” “packaged,” and “fake” offerings for being inauthentic and misrepresenting the place as locals view it. Yet many respondents made exceptions for certain “staged” experiences, including (quite literally) the stage production of Anne of Green Gables based on the novel of the same name, the theatrical re-enactment of the founding of Canada, and visits to PEI’s many provincial and national parks, all of which respondents considered both staged and authentic at the same time.

Keywords: authentic, local, Prince Edward Island, tourism

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81 Neighborhood-Scape as a Methodology for Enhancing Gulf Region Cities' Quality of Life: Case of Doha, Qatar

Authors: Eman AbdelSabour

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Sustainability is increasingly being considered as a critical aspect in shaping the urban environment. It works as an invention development basis for global urban growth. Currently, different models and structures impact the means of interpreting the criteria that would be included in defining a sustainable city. There is a collective need to improve the growth path to an extremely durable path by presenting different suggestions regarding multi-scale initiatives. The global rise in urbanization has led to increased demand and pressure for better urban planning choice and scenarios for a better sustainable urban alternative. The need for an assessment tool at the urban scale was prompted due to the trend of developing increasingly sustainable urban development (SUD). The neighborhood scale is being managed by a growing research committee since it seems to be a pertinent scale through which economic, environmental, and social impacts could be addressed. Although neighborhood design is a comparatively old practice, it is in the initial years of the 21st century when environmentalists and planners started developing sustainable assessment at the neighborhood level. Through this, urban reality can be considered at a larger scale whereby themes which are beyond the size of a single building can be addressed, while it still stays small enough that concrete measures could be analyzed. The neighborhood assessment tool has a crucial role in helping neighborhood sustainability to perform approach and fulfill objectives through a set of themes and criteria. These devices are also known as neighborhood assessment tool, district assessment tool, and sustainable community rating tool. The primary focus of research has been on sustainability from the economic and environmental aspect, whereas the social, cultural issue is rarely focused. Therefore, this research is based on Doha, Qatar, the current urban conditions of the neighborhoods is discussed in this study. The research problem focuses on the spatial features in relation to the socio-cultural aspects. This study is outlined in three parts; the first section comprises of review of the latest use of wellbeing assessment methods to enhance decision process of retrofitting physical features of the neighborhood. The second section discusses the urban settlement development, regulations and the process of decision-making rule. An analysis of urban development policy with reference to neighborhood development is also discussed in this section. Moreover, it includes a historical review of the urban growth of the neighborhoods as an atom of the city system present in Doha. Last part involves developing quantified indicators regarding subjective well-being through a participatory approach. Additionally, applying GIS will be utilized as a visualizing tool for the apparent Quality of Life (QoL) that need to develop in the neighborhood area as an assessment approach. Envisaging the present QoL situation in Doha neighborhoods is a process to improve current condition neighborhood function involves many days to day activities of the residents, due to which areas are considered dynamic.

Keywords: neighborhood, subjective wellbeing, decision support tools, Doha, retrofiring

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80 A Model for Teaching Arabic Grammar in Light of the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages

Authors: Erfan Abdeldaim Mohamed Ahmed Abdalla

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The complexity of Arabic grammar poses challenges for learners, particularly in relation to its arrangement, classification, abundance, and bifurcation. The challenge at hand is a result of the contextual factors that gave rise to the grammatical rules in question, as well as the pedagogical approach employed at the time, which was tailored to the needs of learners during that particular historical period. Consequently, modern-day students encounter this same obstacle. This requires a thorough examination of the arrangement and categorization of Arabic grammatical rules based on particular criteria, as well as an assessment of their objectives. Additionally, it is necessary to identify the prevalent and renowned grammatical rules, as well as those that are infrequently encountered, obscure and disregarded. This paper presents a compilation of grammatical rules that require arrangement and categorization in accordance with the standards outlined in the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR). In addition to facilitating comprehension of the curriculum, accommodating learners' requirements, and establishing the fundamental competencies for achieving proficiency in Arabic, it is imperative to ascertain the conventions that language learners necessitate in alignment with explicitly delineated benchmarks such as the CEFR criteria. The aim of this study is to reduce the quantity of grammatical rules that are typically presented to non-native Arabic speakers in Arabic textbooks. This reduction is expected to enhance the motivation of learners to continue their Arabic language acquisition and to approach the level of proficiency of native speakers. The primary obstacle faced by learners is the intricate nature of Arabic grammar, which poses a significant challenge in the realm of study. The proliferation and complexity of regulations evident in Arabic language textbooks designed for individuals who are not native speakers is noteworthy. The inadequate organisation and delivery of the material create the impression that the grammar is being imparted to a student with the intention of memorising "Alfiyyat-Ibn-Malik." Consequently, the sequence of grammatical rules instruction was altered, with rules originally intended for later instruction being presented first and those intended for earlier instruction being presented subsequently. Students often focus on learning grammatical rules that are not necessarily required while neglecting the rules that are commonly used in everyday speech and writing. Non-Arab students are taught Arabic grammar chapters that are infrequently utilised in Arabic literature and may be a topic of debate among grammarians. The aforementioned findings are derived from the statistical analysis and investigations conducted by the researcher, which will be disclosed in due course of the research. To instruct non-Arabic speakers on grammatical rules, it is imperative to discern the most prevalent grammatical frameworks in grammar manuals and linguistic literature (study sample). The present proposal suggests the allocation of grammatical structures across linguistic levels, taking into account the guidelines of the CEFR, as well as the grammatical structures that are necessary for non-Arabic-speaking learners to generate a modern, cohesive, and comprehensible language.

Keywords: grammar, Arabic, functional, framework, problems, standards, statistical, popularity, analysis

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79 Research on the Spatial Evolution of Tourism-Oriented Rural Settlements: Take the Xiaochanfangyu Village, Dongshuichang Village, Maojiayu Village in Jixian County, Tianjin City as Examples

Authors: Yu Zhang, Jie Wu, Li Dong

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Rural tourism is the service industry which regards the agricultural production, rural life, rural nature and cultural landscape as the tourist attraction. It aims to meet the needs of the city tourists such as country sightseeing, vacation, and leisure. According to the difference of the tourist resources, the rural settlements can be divided into different types: The type of tourism resources, scenic spot, and peri-urban. In the past ten years, the rural tourism has promoted the industrial transformation and economic growth in rural areas of China. And it is conducive to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and has greatly improved the ecological environment and the standard of living for farmers in rural areas. At the same time, a large number of buildings and sites are built in the countryside in order to enhance the tourist attraction and the ability of tourist reception and also to increase the travel comfort and convenience, which has significant influence on the spatial evolution of the village settlement. This article takes the XiangYing Subdistrict, which is in JinPu District of Dalian in China as the exemplification and uses the technology of Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) and the technology of Landscape Spatial Analysis to study the influence of the rural tourism development in the rural settlement spaces in four steps. First, acquiring the remote sensing image data at different times of 8 administrative villages in the XiangYing Subdistrict, by using the remote sensing application EDRAS8.6; second, vectoring basic maps of XiangYing Subdistrict including its land-use map with the application of ArcGIS 9.3, associating with social and economic attribute data of rural settlements and analyzing on the rural evolution visually; third, quantifying the comparison of these patches in rural settlements by using the landscape spatial calculation application Fragstats 3.3 and analyzing on the evolution of the spatial structure of settlement in macro and medium scale; finally, summarizing the evolution characteristics and internal reasons of tourism-oriented rural settlements. The main findings of this article include: first of all, there is difference in the evolution of the spatial structure between the developing rural settlements and undeveloped rural settlements among the eight administrative villages; secondly, the villages relying on the surrounding tourist attractions, the villages developing agricultural ecological garden and the villages with natural or historical and cultural resources have different laws of development; then, the rural settlements whose tourism development in germination period, development period and mature period have different characteristics of spatial evolution; finally, the different evolution modes of the tourism-oriented rural settlement space have different influences on the protection and inheritance of the village scene. The development of tourism has a significant impact on the spatial evolution of rural settlement. The intensive use of rural land and natural resources is the fundamental principle to protect the rural cultural landscape and ecological environment as well as the critical way to improve the attraction of rural tourism and promote the sustainable development of countryside.

Keywords: landscape pattern, rural settlement, spatial evolution, tourism-oriented, Xiangying Subdistrict

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78 Gender, Agency, and Health: An Exploratory Study Using an Ethnographic Material for Illustrative Reasons

Authors: S. Gustafsson

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The aim of this paper is to explore the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time. The use of gender as an analytical tool for health research has been shown to be useful to explore thoughts and ideas that are taken for granted, which have relevance for health. The paper highlights the following three issues. There are multiple forms of femininity and masculinity. Agency and social structure are closely related and referred to in this paper as 'gender agency'. Gender is illuminated as a product of history but also treated as a social factor and a producer of history. As a prominent social factor in the process of shaping living conditions, gender is highlighted as being significant for understanding health. To make health explicit as a dynamic and complex concept and not merely the opposite of disease requires a broader alliance with feminist theory and a post-Bourdieusian framework. A personal story, included with other ethnographic material about women’s networking in rural Sweden, is used as an empirical illustration. Ethnographic material was chosen for its ability to illustrate historical, local, and cultural ways of doing gendered and capitalized health. New concepts characterize ethnography, exemplified in this study by 'processes of transformation'. The semi-structured interviews followed an interview guide drafted with reference to the background theory of gender. The interviews lasted about an hour and were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcribed interviews and the author’s field notes formed the basis for the writing up of this paper. Initially, the participants' interests in weaving, sewing, and various handicrafts became obvious foci for networking activities and seemed at first to shape compliance with patriarchy, which generally does the opposite of promoting health. However, a significant event disrupted the stability of this phenomenon. What was permissible for the women began to crack and new spaces opened up. By exploiting these new spaces, the participants found opportunities to try out alternatives to emphasized femininity. Over time, they began combining feminized activities with degrees of masculinity, as leadership became part of the activities. In response to this, masculine enactment was gradually transformed and became increasingly gender neutral. As the tasks became more gender neutral the activities assumed a more formal character and the women stretched the limits of their capacity by enacting gender agency, a process the participants referred to as 'personal growth' and described as health promotion. What was described in terms of 'personal growth' can be interpreted as the effects of a raised status. Participation in women’s networking strengthened the participants’ structural position. More specifically, it was the gender-neutral position that was rewarded. To clarify the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time the concept processes of transformation is used. This concept is suggested as a dynamic equivalent to habitus. Health is thus seen as resulting from situational access to social recognition, prestige, capital assets and not least, meanings of gender.

Keywords: a cross-gender bodily hexis, gender agency, gender as analytical tool, processes of transformation

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77 GIS and Remote Sensing Approach in Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Monitoring: A Case Study in the Momase Region of Papua New Guinea

Authors: Tingneyuc Sekac, Sujoy Kumar Jana, Indrajit Pal, Dilip Kumar Pal

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Tectonism induced Tsunami, landslide, ground shaking leading to liquefaction, infrastructure collapse, conflagration are the common earthquake hazards that are experienced worldwide. Apart from human casualty, the damage to built-up infrastructures like roads, bridges, buildings and other properties are the collateral episodes. The appropriate planning must precede with a view to safeguarding people’s welfare, infrastructures and other properties at a site based on proper evaluation and assessments of the potential level of earthquake hazard. The information or output results can be used as a tool that can assist in minimizing risk from earthquakes and also can foster appropriate construction design and formulation of building codes at a particular site. Different disciplines adopt different approaches in assessing and monitoring earthquake hazard throughout the world. For the present study, GIS and Remote Sensing potentials were utilized to evaluate and assess earthquake hazards of the study region. Subsurface geology and geomorphology were the common features or factors that were assessed and integrated within GIS environment coupling with seismicity data layers like; Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), historical earthquake magnitude and earthquake depth to evaluate and prepare liquefaction potential zones (LPZ) culminating in earthquake hazard zonation of our study sites. The liquefaction can eventuate in the aftermath of severe ground shaking with amenable site soil condition, geology and geomorphology. The latter site conditions or the wave propagation media were assessed to identify the potential zones. The precept has been that during any earthquake event the seismic wave is generated and propagates from earthquake focus to the surface. As it propagates, it passes through certain geological or geomorphological and specific soil features, where these features according to their strength/stiffness/moisture content, aggravates or attenuates the strength of wave propagation to the surface. Accordingly, the resulting intensity of shaking may or may not culminate in the collapse of built-up infrastructures. For the case of earthquake hazard zonation, the overall assessment was carried out through integrating seismicity data layers with LPZ. Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) with Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted for this study. It is a GIS technology that involves integration of several factors (thematic layers) that can have a potential contribution to liquefaction triggered by earthquake hazard. The factors are to be weighted and ranked in the order of their contribution to earthquake induced liquefaction. The weightage and ranking assigned to each factor are to be normalized with AHP technique. The spatial analysis tools i.e., Raster calculator, reclassify, overlay analysis in ArcGIS 10 software were mainly employed in the study. The final output of LPZ and Earthquake hazard zones were reclassified to ‘Very high’, ‘High’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Low’ and ‘Very Low’ to indicate levels of hazard within a study region.

Keywords: hazard micro-zonation, liquefaction, multi criteria evaluation, tectonism

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
76 A Geographic Information System Mapping Method for Creating Improved Satellite Solar Radiation Dataset Over Qatar

Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

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The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
75 Water Ingress into Underground Mine Voids in the Central Rand Goldfields Area, South Africa-Fluid Induced Seismicity

Authors: Artur Cichowicz

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The last active mine in the Central Rand Goldfields area (50 km x 15 km) ceased operations in 2008. This resulted in the closure of the pumping stations, which previously maintained the underground water level in the mining voids. As a direct consequence of the water being allowed to flood the mine voids, seismic activity has increased directly beneath the populated area of Johannesburg. Monitoring of seismicity in the area has been on-going for over five years using the network of 17 strong ground motion sensors. The objective of the project is to improve strategies for mine closure. The evolution of the seismicity pattern was investigated in detail. Special attention was given to seismic source parameters such as magnitude, scalar seismic moment and static stress drop. Most events are located within historical mine boundaries. The seismicity pattern shows a strong relationship between the presence of the mining void and high levels of seismicity; no seismicity migration patterns were observed outside the areas of old mining. Seven years after the pumping stopped, the evolution of the seismicity has indicated that the area is not yet in equilibrium. The level of seismicity in the area appears to not be decreasing over time since the number of strong events, with Mw magnitudes above 2, is still as high as it was when monitoring began over five years ago. The average rate of seismic deformation is 1.6x1013 Nm/year. Constant seismic deformation was not observed over the last 5 years. The deviation from the average is in the order of 6x10^13 Nm/year, which is a significant deviation. The variation of cumulative seismic moment indicates that a constant deformation rate model is not suitable. Over the most recent five year period, the total cumulative seismic moment released in the Central Rand Basin was 9.0x10^14 Nm. This is equivalent to one earthquake of magnitude 3.9. This is significantly less than what was experienced during the mining operation. Characterization of seismicity triggered by a rising water level in the area can be achieved through the estimation of source parameters. Static stress drop heavily influences ground motion amplitude, which plays an important role in risk assessments of potential seismic hazards in inhabited areas. The observed static stress drop in this study varied from 0.05 MPa to 10 MPa. It was found that large static stress drops could be associated with both small and large events. The temporal evolution of the inter-event time provides an understanding of the physical mechanisms of earthquake interaction. Changes in the characteristics of the inter-event time are produced when a stress change is applied to a group of faults in the region. Results from this study indicate that the fluid-induced source has a shorter inter-event time in comparison to a random distribution. This behaviour corresponds to a clustering of events, in which short recurrence times tend to be close to each other, forming clusters of events.

Keywords: inter-event time, fluid induced seismicity, mine closure, spectral parameters of seismic source

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74 Understanding the Construction of Social Enterprises in India: Through Identity and Context of Social Entrepreneurs

Authors: K. Bose

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India is one of the largest democracies in the global south, which demonstrates the highest social enterprise activities in the subcontinent. Although there has been a meteoric rise in social enterprise activities, it is not a new phenomenon, as it dates back to Vinoba Bhave's Land Gift movement in 1950. India also has a rich history of a welfare mix where non-governmental organisations played a significant role in the public welfare provision. Lately, the government’s impetus on entrepreneurship has contributed to a burgeoning social enterprise sector in the country; however, there is a lack in understanding of how social enterprises are constructed in India. Social entrepreneurship as practice has been conceptualised as a multi-dimensional concept, which is predominantly explained through the characteristics of a social entrepreneur. Social enterprise organisation, which is a component of social entrepreneurship practice are also classified through the role of the social entrepreneur; thus making social entrepreneur a vital unit shaping organisation and practice. Hence, individual identity of the social entrepreneur acts as a steering agent for defining organisation and practice. Individual identity does not operate in a vacuum and different isomorphic pressures (resource-rich actors/institutions) leads to negotiation in these identities. Dey and Teasdale's work investigated this identity work of non-profit practitioners within the practice of social enterprises in England. Furthermore, the construction of social enterprises is predominantly understood through two approaches i.e. an institutional logic perspective emerging from Europe and process and outcome perspective derived from the United States. These two approaches explain social enterprise as an inevitable institutional outcome in a linear and simplistic manner. Such linear institutional transition is inferred from structural policy reforms and austerity measures adopted by the government, which led to heightened competition for funds in the non-profit sector. These political and economic challenges were specific to the global north, which is different from transitions experienced in the global south, thus further investigation would help understand social enterprise activities as a contextual phenomenon. There is a growing interest in understanding the role of the context within the entrepreneurship literature, additionally, there is growing recognition in entrepreneurship research that economic behaviour is realised far better within its historical, temporal, institutional, spatial and social context, as these contexts provide boundaries to individuals in terms of opportunities and actions. Social enterprise phenomenon too is realised as contextual phenomenon though it differs from traditional entrepreneurship in terms of its dual mission (social and economic), however, the understanding of the role of context in social entrepreneurship has been limited. Hence, this work in progress study integrates identity work of social entrepreneur and the role of context. It investigates the identities of social entrepreneur and its negotiation within its context. Further, how this negotiated identity transcends into organisational practice in turn shaping how social enterprises are constructed in a specific region. The study employs a qualitative inquiry of semi-structured interviews and ethnographic institutionalism. Interviews were analysed using critical discourse analysis and the preliminary outcomes are currently a work in progress.

Keywords: context, Dey and Teasdale, identity, social entrepreneurs, social enterprise, social entrepreneurship

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73 Fort Conger: A Virtual Museum and Virtual Interactive World for Exploring Science in the 19th Century

Authors: Richard Levy, Peter Dawson

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Ft. Conger, located in the Canadian Arctic was one of the most remote 19th-century scientific stations. Established in 1881 on Ellesmere Island, a wood framed structure established a permanent base from which to conduct scientific research. Under the charge of Lt. Greely, Ft. Conger was one of 14 expeditions conducted during the First International Polar Year (FIPY). Our research project “From Science to Survival: Using Virtual Exhibits to Communicate the Significance of Polar Heritage Sites in the Canadian Arctic” focused on the creation of a virtual museum website dedicated to one of the most important polar heritage site in the Canadian Arctic. This website was developed under a grant from Virtual Museum of Canada and enables visitors to explore the fort’s site from 1875 to the present, http://fortconger.org. Heritage sites are often viewed as static places. A goal of this project was to present the change that occurred over time as each new group of explorers adapted the site to their needs. The site was first visited by British explorer George Nares in 1875 – 76. Only later did the United States government select this site for the Lady Franklin Bay Expedition (1881-84) with research to be conducted under the FIPY (1882 – 83). Still later Robert Peary and Matthew Henson attempted to reach the North Pole from Ft. Conger in 1899, 1905 and 1908. A central focus of this research is on the virtual reconstruction of the Ft. Conger. In the summer of 2010, a Zoller+Fröhlich Imager 5006i and Minolta Vivid 910 laser scanner were used to scan terrain and artifacts. Once the scanning was completed, the point clouds were registered and edited to form the basis of a virtual reconstruction. A goal of this project has been to allow visitors to step back in time and explore the interior of these buildings with all of its artifacts. Links to text, historic documents, animations, panorama images, computer games and virtual labs provide explanations of how science was conducted during the 19th century. A major feature of this virtual world is the timeline. Visitors to the website can begin to explore the site when George Nares, in his ship the HMS Discovery, appeared in the harbor in 1875. With the emergence of Lt Greely’s expedition in 1881, we can track the progress made in establishing a scientific outpost. Still later in 1901, with Peary’s presence, the site is transformed again, with the huts having been built from materials salvaged from Greely’s main building. Still later in 2010, we can visit the site during its present state of deterioration and learn about the laser scanning technology which was used to document the site. The Science and Survival at Fort Conger project represents one of the first attempts to use virtual worlds to communicate the historical and scientific significance of polar heritage sites where opportunities for first-hand visitor experiences are not possible because of remote location.

Keywords: 3D imaging, multimedia, virtual reality, arctic

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72 Sentiment Analysis of Tourist Online Reviews Concerning Lisbon Cultural Patrimony, as a Contribute to the City Attractiveness Evaluation

Authors: Joao Ferreira Do Rosario, Maria De Lurdes Calisto, Ana Teresa Machado, Nuno Gustavo, Rui Gonçalves

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The tourism sector is increasingly important to the economic performance of countries and a relevant theme to academic research, increasing the importance of understanding how and why tourists evaluate tourism locations. The city of Lisbon is currently a tourist destination of excellence in the European and world-wide panorama, registering a significant growth of the economic weight of its tourist activities in the Gross Added Value of the region. Although there is research on the feedback of those who visit tourist sites and different methodologies for studying tourist sites have been applied, this research seeks to be innovative in the objective of obtaining insights on the competitiveness in terms of attractiveness of the city of Lisbon as a tourist destination, based the feedback of tourists in the Facebook pages of the most visited museums and monuments of Lisbon, an interpretation that is relevant in the development of strategies of tourist attraction. The intangible dimension of the tourism offer, due to its unique condition of simultaneous production and consumption, makes eWOM particularly relevant. The testimony of consumers is thus a decisive factor in the decision-making and buying process in tourism. Online social networks are one of the most used platforms for tourists to evaluate the attractiveness's points of a tourism destination (e.g. cultural and historical heritage), with this user-generated feedback enabling relevant information about the customer-tourists. This information is related to the tourist experience representing the true voice of the customer. Furthermore, this voice perceived by others as genuine, opposite to marketing messages, may have a powerful word-of-mouth influence on other potential tourists. The relevance of online reviews sharing, however, becomes particularly complex, considering social media users’ different profiles or the possible and different sources of information available, as well as their associated reputation associated with each source. In the light of these trends, our research focuses on the tourists’ feedback on Facebook pages of the most visited museums and monuments of Lisbon that contribute to its attractiveness as a tourism destination. Sentiment Analysis is the methodology selected for this research, using public available information in the online context, which was deemed as an appropriate non-participatory observation method. Data will be collected from two museums (Museu dos Coches and Museu de Arte Antiga) and three monuments ((Mosteiro dos Jerónimos, Torre de Belém and Panteão Nacional) Facebook pages during a period of one year. The research results will help in the evaluation of the considered places by the tourists, their contribution to the city attractiveness and present insights helpful for the management decisions regarding this museums and monuments. The results of this study will also contribute to a better knowledge of the tourism sector, namely the identification of attributes in the evaluation and choice of the city of Lisbon as a tourist destination. Further research will evaluate the Lisbon attraction points for tourists in different categories beyond museums and monuments, will also evaluate the tourist feedback from other sources like TripAdvisor and apply the same methodology in other cities and country regions.

Keywords: Lisbon tourism, opinion mining, sentiment analysis, tourism location attractiveness evaluation

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71 One Species into Five: Nucleo-Mito Barcoding Reveals Cryptic Species in 'Frankliniella Schultzei Complex': Vector for Tospoviruses

Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

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The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

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70 Combining a Continuum of Hidden Regimes and a Heteroskedastic Three-Factor Model in Option Pricing

Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
69 Designing Short-Term Study Abroad Programs for Graduate Students: The Case of Morocco

Authors: Elaine Crable, Amit Sen

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Short-term study abroad programs have become a mainstay of MBA programs. The benefits of international business experiences, along with its exposure to global cultures, are well documented. However, developing a rewarding study, abroad program at the graduate level can be challenging for Faculty, especially when devising such a program for a group of part-time MBA students who come with a wide range of experiences and demographic characteristics. Each student has individual expectations for the study abroad experience. This study provides suggestions and considerations for Faculty that are planning to design a short-term study abroad program, especially for part-time MBA students. Insights are based on a recent experience leading a group of twenty-one students on a ten-day program to Morocco. The trip was designed and facilitated by two faculty members and a local Moroccan facilitator. This experience led to a number of insights and recommendations. First, the choice of location is critical. The choice of Morocco was very deliberate, owing to its multi-faceted cultural landscape and international business interest. It is an Islamic State with close ties to Europe both culturally and geographically and Morocco is a multi-lingual country with some combination of three languages spoken by most – English, Arabic, and French. Second, collaboration with a local ‘academic’ partner allowed the level of instruction to be both rigorous and significantly more engaging. Third, allowing students to participate in the planning of the trip enabled the trip participants to collaborate, negotiate, and share their own experiences and strengths. The pre-trip engagement was structured by creating four sub-groups, each responsible for an assigned city. Each student sub-group had to provide a historical background of the assigned city, plan the itinerary including sites to visit, cuisine to experience, industries to explore, markets to visit, plus provide a budget for that city’s expenses. The pre-planning segment of the course was critical for the success of the program as students were able to contribute to the design of the program through collaboration and negotiation with their peers. Fourth, each student sub-group was assigned industry to study within Morocco. The student sub-group prepared a presentation and a group paper with their analysis of the chosen industries. The pre-planning activities created strong bonds among the trip participants, which was evident when faced with on-ground challenges, especially when it was necessary to quickly evacuate due to a surprise USA COVID evacuation notice. The entire group supported each other when quickly making their way back to the United States. Unfortunately, the trip was cut short by two days due to this emergency exit, but the feedback regarding the program was very positive all around. While the program design put pressure on the Faculty leads regarding planning and coordination upfront, the outcome in terms of student engagement, student learning, collaboration and negotiation were all favorable and worth the effort. Finally, an added value, the cost of the program for the student was significantly lower compared to running a program with a professional provider.

Keywords: business education, experiential learning, international education, study abroad

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68 Academic Mobility within EU as a Voluntary or a Necessary Move: The Case of German Academics in the UK

Authors: Elena Samarsky

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According to German national records and willingness to migrate surveys, emigration is much more attractive for better educated citizens employed in white-collar positions, with academics displaying the highest migration rate. The case study of academic migration from Germany is furthermore intriguing due to the country's financial power, competitive labour market and relatively good life-standards, working conditions and high wage rates. Investigation of such mobility challenges traditional economic view on migration, as it raises the question of why people chose to leave their highly-industrialized countries known for their high life-standards, stable political scene and prosperous economy. Within the regional domain, examining mobility of Germans contributes to the ongoing debate over the extent of influence of the EU mobility principle on migration decision. The latter is of particular interest, as it may shed the light on the extent to which it frames individual migration path, defines motivations and colours the experiences of migration action itself. The paper is based on the analysis of the migration decisions obtained through in-depth interviews with German academics employed in the UK. These retrospective interviews were conducted with German academies across selected universities in the UK, employed in a variety of academic fields, and different career stages. Interviews provide a detailed description of what motivated people to search for a post in another country, which attributes of such job are needed to be satisfied in order to facilitate migration, as well as general information on particularities of an academic career and institutions involved. In the course of the project, it became evident that although securing financial stability was non-negotiable factor in migration (e.g., work contract singed before relocation) non-pecuniary motivations played significant role as well. Migration narratives of this group - the highly skilled, whose human capital is transferable, and whose expertise is positively evaluated by countries, is mainly characterised by search for personal development and career advancement, rather than a direct increase in their income. Such records are also consistent in showing that in case of academics, scientific freedom and independence are the main attributes of a perfect job and are a substantial motivator. On the micro level, migration is rather depicted as an opportunistic action addressed in terms of voluntary and rather imposed decision. However, on the macro level, findings allow suggesting that such opportunities are rather an outcome embedded in the peculiarities of academia and its historical and structural developments. This, in turn, contributes significantly to emergence of a scene in which migration action takes place. The paper suggest further comparative research on the intersection of the macro and micro level, and in particular how both national academic institutions and the EU mobility principle shape migration of academics. In light of continuous attempts to make the European labour market more mobile and attractive such findings ought to have direct implications on policy.

Keywords: migration, EU, academics, highly skilled labour

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
67 Modern Detection and Description Methods for Natural Plants Recognition

Authors: Masoud Fathi Kazerouni, Jens Schlemper, Klaus-Dieter Kuhnert

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Green planet is one of the Earth’s names which is known as a terrestrial planet and also can be named the fifth largest planet of the solar system as another scientific interpretation. Plants do not have a constant and steady distribution all around the world, and even plant species’ variations are not the same in one specific region. Presence of plants is not only limited to one field like botany; they exist in different fields such as literature and mythology and they hold useful and inestimable historical records. No one can imagine the world without oxygen which is produced mostly by plants. Their influences become more manifest since no other live species can exist on earth without plants as they form the basic food staples too. Regulation of water cycle and oxygen production are the other roles of plants. The roles affect environment and climate. Plants are the main components of agricultural activities. Many countries benefit from these activities. Therefore, plants have impacts on political and economic situations and future of countries. Due to importance of plants and their roles, study of plants is essential in various fields. Consideration of their different applications leads to focus on details of them too. Automatic recognition of plants is a novel field to contribute other researches and future of studies. Moreover, plants can survive their life in different places and regions by means of adaptations. Therefore, adaptations are their special factors to help them in hard life situations. Weather condition is one of the parameters which affect plants life and their existence in one area. Recognition of plants in different weather conditions is a new window of research in the field. Only natural images are usable to consider weather conditions as new factors. Thus, it will be a generalized and useful system. In order to have a general system, distance from the camera to plants is considered as another factor. The other considered factor is change of light intensity in environment as it changes during the day. Adding these factors leads to a huge challenge to invent an accurate and secure system. Development of an efficient plant recognition system is essential and effective. One important component of plant is leaf which can be used to implement automatic systems for plant recognition without any human interface and interaction. Due to the nature of used images, characteristic investigation of plants is done. Leaves of plants are the first characteristics to select as trusty parts. Four different plant species are specified for the goal to classify them with an accurate system. The current paper is devoted to principal directions of the proposed methods and implemented system, image dataset, and results. The procedure of algorithm and classification is explained in details. First steps, feature detection and description of visual information, are outperformed by using Scale invariant feature transform (SIFT), HARRIS-SIFT, and FAST-SIFT methods. The accuracy of the implemented methods is computed. In addition to comparison, robustness and efficiency of results in different conditions are investigated and explained.

Keywords: SIFT combination, feature extraction, feature detection, natural images, natural plant recognition, HARRIS-SIFT, FAST-SIFT

Procedia PDF Downloads 247
66 Integrated Planning, Designing, Development and Management of Eco-Friendly Human Settlements for Sustainable Development of Environment, Economic, Peace and Society of All Economies

Authors: Indra Bahadur Chand

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This paper will focus on the need for development and application of global protocols and policy in planning, designing, development, and management of systems of eco-towns and eco-villages so that sustainable development will be assured from the perspective of environmental, economical, peace, and harmonized social dynamics. This perspective is essential for the development of civilized and eco-friendly human settlements in the town and rural areas of the nation that will be a milestone for developing a happy and sustainable lifestyle of rural and urban communities of the nation. The urban population of most of the town of developing economies has been tremendously increasing, whereas rural people have been tremendously migrating for the past three decades. Consequently, the urban lifestyle in most towns has stressed in terms of environmental pollution, water crisis, congested traffic, energy crisis, food crisis, and unemployment. Eco-towns and villages should be developed where lifestyle of all residents is sustainable and happy. Built up environment of settlement should reduce and minimize the problems of non ecological CO2 emissions, unbalanced utilization of natural resources, environmental degradation, natural calamities, ecological imbalance, energy crisis, water scarcity, waste management, food crisis, unemployment, deterioration of cultural heritage, social, the ratio among the public and private land ownership, ratio of land covered with vegetation and area of settlement, the ratio of people in the vehicles and foot, the ratio of people employed outside of town and village, ratio of resources recycling of waste materials, water consumption level, the ratio of people and vehicles, ratio of the length of the road network and area of town/villages, a ratio of renewable energy consumption with total energy, a ratio of religious/recreational area out of the total built-up area, the ratio of annual suicide case out of total people, a ratio of annual injured and death out of total people from a traffic accident, a ratio of production of agro foods within town out of total food consumption will be used to assist in designing and monitoring of each eco-towns and villages. An eco-town and villages should be planned and developed to offer sustainable infrastructure and utilities that maintain CO2 level in individual homes and settlements, home energy use, transport, food and consumer goods, water supply, waste management, conservation of historical heritages, healthy neighborhood, conservation of natural landscape, conserving bio-diversity and developing green infrastructures. Eco-towns and villages should be developed on the basis of master planning and architecture that affect and define the settlement and its form. Master planning and engineering should focus in delivering the sustainability criteria of eco towns and eco village. This will involve working with specific landscape and natural resources of locality.

Keywords: eco-town, ecological habitation, master plan, sustainable development

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65 Geographic Information System and Ecotourism Sites Identification of Jamui District, Bihar, India

Authors: Anshu Anshu

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In the red corridor famed for the Left Wing Extremism, lies small district of Jamui in Bihar, India. The district lies at 24º20´ N latitude and 86º13´ E longitude, covering an area of 3,122.8 km2 The undulating topography, with widespread forests provides pristine environment for invigorating experience of tourists. Natural landscape in form of forests, wildlife, rivers, and cultural landscape dotted with historical and religious places is highly purposive for tourism. The study is primarily related to the identification of potential ecotourism sites, using Geographic Information System. Data preparation, analysis and finally identification of ecotourism sites is done. Secondary data used is Survey of India Topographical Sheets with R.F.1:50,000 covering the area of Jamui district. District Census Handbook, Census of India, 2011; ERDAS Imagine and Arc View is used for digitization and the creation of DEM’s (Digital Elevation Model) of the district, depicting the relief and topography and generate thematic maps. The thematic maps have been refined using the geo-processing tools. Buffer technique has been used for the accessibility analysis. Finally, all the maps, including the Buffer maps were overlaid to find out the areas which have potential for the development of ecotourism sites in the Jamui district. Spatial data - relief, slopes, settlements, transport network and forests of Jamui District were marked and identified, followed by Buffer Analysis that was used to find out the accessibility of features like roads, railway stations to the sites available for the development of ecotourism destinations. Buffer analysis is also carried out to get the spatial proximity of major river banks, lakes, and dam sites to be selected for promoting sustainable ecotourism. Overlay Analysis is conducted using the geo-processing tools. Digital Terrain Model (DEM) generated and relevant themes like roads, forest areas and settlements were draped on the DEM to make an assessment of the topography and other land uses of district to delineate potential zones of ecotourism development. Development of ecotourism in Jamui faces several challenges. The district lies in the portion of Bihar that is part of ‘red corridor’ of India. The hills and dense forests are the prominent hideouts and training ground for the extremists. It is well known that any kind of political instability, war, acts of violence directly influence the travel propensity and hinders all kind of non-essential travels to these areas. The development of ecotourism in the district can bring change and overall growth in this area with communities getting more involved in economically sustainable activities. It is a known fact that poverty and social exclusion are the main force that pushes people, resorting towards violence. All over the world tourism has been used as a tool to eradicate poverty and generate good will among people. Tourism, in sustainable form should be promoted in the district to integrate local communities in the development process and to distribute fruits of development with equity.

Keywords: buffer analysis, digital elevation model, ecotourism, red corridor

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64 Traditional Practices of Conserving Biodiversity: A Case Study around Jim Corbett National Park, Uttarakhand, India

Authors: Rana Parween, Rob Marchant

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With the continued loss of global biodiversity despite the application of modern conservation techniques, it has become crucial to investigate non-conventional methods. Accelerated destruction of ecosystems due to altered land use, climate change, cultural and social change, necessitates the exploration of society-biodiversity attitudes and links. While the loss of species and their extinction is a well-known and well-documented process that attracts much-needed attention from researchers, academics, government and non-governmental organizations, the loss of traditional ecological knowledge and practices is more insidious and goes unnoticed. The growing availability of 'indirect experiences' such as the internet and media are leading to a disaffection towards nature and the 'Extinction of Experience'. Exacerbated by the lack of documentation of traditional practices and skills, there is the possibility for the 'extinction' of traditional practices and skills before they are fully recognized and captured. India, as a mega-biodiverse country, is also known for its historical conservation strategies entwined in traditional beliefs. Indigenous communities hold skillsets, knowledge, and traditions that have accumulated over multiple generations and may play an important role in conserving biodiversity today. This study explores the differences in knowledge and attitudes towards conserving biodiversity, of three different stakeholder groups living around Jim Corbett National Park, based on their age, traditions, and association with the protected area. A triangulation designed multi-strategy investigation collected qualitative and quantitative data through a questionnaire survey of village elders, the general public, and forest officers. Following an inductive approach to analyzing qualitative data, the thematic content analysis was followed. All coding and analysis were completed using NVivo 11. Although the village elders and some general public had vast amounts of traditional knowledge, most of it was related to animal husbandry and the medicinal value of plants. Village elders were unfamiliar with the concept of the term ‘biodiversity’ albeit their way of life and attitudes ensured that they care for the ecosystem without having the scientific basis underpinning biodiversity conservation. Inherently, village elders were keen to conserve nature; the superimposition of governmental policies without any tangible benefit or consultation was seen as detrimental. Alienating villagers and consequently the village elders who are the reservoirs of traditional knowledge would not only be damaging to the social network of the area but would also disdain years of tried and tested techniques held by the elders. Forest officers advocated for biodiversity and conservation education for women and children. Women, across all groups, when questioned about nature conservation, showed more interest in learning and participation. Biodiversity not only has an ethical and cultural value, but also plays a role in ecosystem function and, thus, provides ecosystem services and supports livelihoods. Therefore, underpinning and using traditional knowledge and incorporating them into programs of biodiversity conservation should be explored with a sense of urgency.

Keywords: biological diversity, mega-biodiverse countries, traditional ecological knowledge, society-biodiversity links

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63 Exploring a Cross-Sectional Analysis Defining Social Work Leadership Competencies in Social Work Education and Practice

Authors: Trevor Stephen, Joshua D. Aceves, David Guyer, Jona Jacobson

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As a profession, social work has much to offer individuals, groups, and organizations. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding and solving complex challenges and a commitment to developing and training ethical practitioners outlines characteristics of a profession embedded with leadership skills. This presentation will take an overview of the historical context of social work leadership, examine social work as a unique leadership model composed of its qualities and theories that inform effective leadership capability as it relates to our code of ethics. Reflect critically on leadership theories and their foundational comparison. Finally, a look at recommendations and implementation to social work education and practice. Similar to defining leadership, there is no universally accepted definition of social work leadership. However, some distinct traits and characteristics are essential. Recent studies help set the stage for this research proposal because they measure views on effective social work leadership among social work and non-social leaders and followers. However, this research is interested in working backward from that approach and examining social workers' leadership preparedness perspectives based solely on social work training, competencies, values, and ethics. Social workers understand how to change complex structures and challenge resistance to change to improve the well-being of organizations and those they serve. Furthermore, previous studies align with the idea of practitioners assessing their skill and capacity to engage in leadership but not to lead. In addition, this research is significant because it explores aspiring social work leaders' competence to translate social work practice into direct leadership skills. The research question seeks to answer whether social work training and competencies are sufficient to determine whether social workers believe they possess the capacity and skill to engage in leadership practice. Aim 1: Assess whether social workers have the capacity and skills to assume leadership roles. Aim 2: Evaluate how the development of social workers is sufficient in defining leadership. This research intends to reframe the misconception that social workers do not possess the capacity and skills to be effective leaders. On the contrary, social work encompasses a framework dedicated to lifelong development and growth. Social workers must be skilled, competent, ethical, supportive, and empathic. These are all qualities and traits of effective leadership, whereas leaders are in relation with others and embody partnership and collaboration with followers and stakeholders. The proposed study is a cross-sectional quasi-experimental survey design that will include the distribution of a multi-level social work leadership model and assessment tool. The assessment tool aims to help define leadership in social work using a Likert scale model. A cross-sectional research design is appropriate for answering the research questions because the measurement survey will help gather data using a structured tool. Other than the proposed social work leadership measurement tool, there is no other mechanism based on social work theory and designed to measure the capacity and skill of social work leadership.

Keywords: leadership competencies, leadership education, multi-level social work leadership model, social work core values, social work leadership, social work leadership education, social work leadership measurement tool

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62 Transdisciplinary Methodological Innovation: Connecting Natural and Social Sciences Research through a Training Toolbox

Authors: Jessica M. Black

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Although much of natural and social science research aims to enhance human flourishing and address social problems, the training within the two fields is significantly different across theory, methodology, and implementation of results. Social scientists are trained in social, psychological, and to the extent that it is relevant to their discipline, spiritual development, theory, and accompanying methodologies. They tend not to receive training or learn about accompanying methodology related to interrogating human development and social problems from a biological perspective. On the other hand, those in the natural sciences, and for the purpose of this work, human biological sciences specifically – biology, neuroscience, genetics, epigenetics, and physiology – are often trained first to consider cellular development and related methodologies, and may not have opportunity to receive formal training in many of the foundational principles that guide human development, such as systems theory or person-in-environment framework, methodology related to tapping both proximal and distal psycho-social-spiritual influences on human development, and foundational principles of equity, justice and inclusion in research design. There is a need for disciplines heretofore siloed to know one another, to receive streamlined, easy to access training in theory and methods from one another and to learn how to build interdisciplinary teams that can speak and act upon a shared research language. Team science is more essential than ever, as are transdisciplinary approaches to training and research design. This study explores the use of a methodological toolbox that natural and social scientists can use by employing a decision-making tree regarding project aims, costs, and participants, among other important study variables. The decision tree begins with a decision about whether the researcher wants to learn more about social sciences approaches or biological approaches to study design. The toolbox and platform are flexible, such that users could also choose among modules, for instance, reviewing epigenetics or community-based participatory research even if those are aspects already a part of their home field. To start, both natural and social scientists would receive training on systems science, team science, transdisciplinary approaches, and translational science. Next, social scientists would receive training on grounding biological theory and the following methodological approaches and tools: physiology, (epi)genetics, non-invasive neuroimaging, invasive neuroimaging, endocrinology, and the gut-brain connection. Natural scientists would receive training on grounding social science theory, and measurement including variables, assessment and surveys on human development as related to the developing person (e.g., temperament and identity), microsystems (e.g., systems that directly interact with the person such as family and peers), mesosystems (e.g., systems that interact with one another but do not directly interact with the individual person, such as parent and teacher relationships with one another), exosystems (e.g., spaces and settings that may come back to affect the individual person, such as a parent’s work environment, but within which the individual does not directly interact, macrosystems (e.g., wider culture and policy), and the chronosystem (e.g., historical time, such as the generational impact of trauma). Participants will be able to engage with the toolbox and one another to foster increased transdisciplinary work

Keywords: methodology, natural science, social science, transdisciplinary

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61 Modeling the Demand for the Healthcare Services Using Data Analysis Techniques

Authors: Elizaveta S. Prokofyeva, Svetlana V. Maltseva, Roman D. Zaitsev

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Rapidly evolving modern data analysis technologies in healthcare play a large role in understanding the operation of the system and its characteristics. Nowadays, one of the key tasks in urban healthcare is to optimize the resource allocation. Thus, the application of data analysis in medical institutions to solve optimization problems determines the significance of this study. The purpose of this research was to establish the dependence between the indicators of the effectiveness of the medical institution and its resources. Hospital discharges by diagnosis; hospital days of in-patients and in-patient average length of stay were selected as the performance indicators and the demand of the medical facility. The hospital beds by type of care, medical technology (magnetic resonance tomography, gamma cameras, angiographic complexes and lithotripters) and physicians characterized the resource provision of medical institutions for the developed models. The data source for the research was an open database of the statistical service Eurostat. The choice of the source is due to the fact that the databases contain complete and open information necessary for research tasks in the field of public health. In addition, the statistical database has a user-friendly interface that allows you to quickly build analytical reports. The study provides information on 28 European for the period from 2007 to 2016. For all countries included in the study, with the most accurate and complete data for the period under review, predictive models were developed based on historical panel data. An attempt to improve the quality and the interpretation of the models was made by cluster analysis of the investigated set of countries. The main idea was to assess the similarity of the joint behavior of the variables throughout the time period under consideration to identify groups of similar countries and to construct the separate regression models for them. Therefore, the original time series were used as the objects of clustering. The hierarchical agglomerate algorithm k-medoids was used. The sampled objects were used as the centers of the clusters obtained, since determining the centroid when working with time series involves additional difficulties. The number of clusters used the silhouette coefficient. After the cluster analysis it was possible to significantly improve the predictive power of the models: for example, in the one of the clusters, MAPE error was only 0,82%, which makes it possible to conclude that this forecast is highly reliable in the short term. The obtained predicted values of the developed models have a relatively low level of error and can be used to make decisions on the resource provision of the hospital by medical personnel. The research displays the strong dependencies between the demand for the medical services and the modern medical equipment variable, which highlights the importance of the technological component for the successful development of the medical facility. Currently, data analysis has a huge potential, which allows to significantly improving health services. Medical institutions that are the first to introduce these technologies will certainly have a competitive advantage.

Keywords: data analysis, demand modeling, healthcare, medical facilities

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