Search results for: time prediction algorithms

Authors: Yamileth P. Herrera, Ronald R. Gutierrez, Carlos, Pacheco-Bustos

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This research aims at the numerical modeling of a rectangular contact tank in order to improve the hydrodynamic behavior and the retention time of the water to be treated with the disinfecting agent. The methodology to be followed includes a hydraulic analysis of the tank to observe the fluid velocities, which will allow evidence of low-speed areas that may generate pathogenic agent incubation or high-velocity areas, which may decrease the optimal contact time between the disinfecting agent and the microorganisms to be eliminated. Based on the results of the numerical model, the efficiency of the tank under the geometric and hydraulic conditions considered will be analyzed. This would allow the performance of the tank to be improved before starting a construction process, thus avoiding unnecessary costs.

Keywords: contact tank, numerical models, hydrodynamic modeling, residence time

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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The safety test of deploying intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) on the road network is a critical challenge. Road traffic network simulation can be used to test the functionality of ICVs, which is not only time-saving and less energy-consuming but also can create scenarios with car collisions. However, the relationship between different human driver behaviors and the car-collision occurrences has been not understood clearly; meanwhile, the procedure of car-collisions generation in the traffic numerical simulators is not fully integrated. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify specific driver profiles from real driven data; then, we replicate them in numerical traffic simulations with the purpose of generating inter-vehicular collisions. We proposed three profiles: (i) 'aggressive': short time-headway, (ii) 'inattentive': long reaction time, and (iii) 'normal' with intermediate values of reaction time and time-headway. These three driver profiles are extracted from the NGSIM dataset and simulated using the intelligent driver model (IDM), with an extension of reaction time. At last, the generation of inter-vehicular collisions is performed by varying the percentages of different profiles.

Keywords: vehicular collisions, human driving behavior, traffic modeling, car-following models, microscopic traffic simulation

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Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah

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In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.

Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Sakshi Singh, Shampa Chakraverty

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One of the essential characteristics of Blockchain is the ability to validate the integrity of new transactions added to the Blockchain. Moreover, one of the essential consensus algorithms, Proof of Work, performs this job. In this work, we implemented the Proof of Work consensus method on the block formed by performing the transaction using Ganache. The primary goal of this implementation is to understand the process and record how Proof of Work works in reality on newly created blocks.

Keywords: proof of work, blockchain, ganache, smart contract

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Authors: Jason Clarke, Michaela Porubanova, Angela Mazzoli, Gulsah Kut

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What accounts for our perception that time inexorably passes in one direction, from the past to the future, the so-called arrow of time, given that the laws of physics permit motion in one temporal direction to also happen in the reverse temporal direction? Modern physics says that the reason for time’s unidirectional physical arrow is the relationship between time and entropy, the degree of disorder in the universe, which is evolving from low entropy (high order; thermal disequilibrium) toward high entropy (high disorder; thermal equilibrium), the second law of thermodynamics. Accordingly, our perception of the direction of time, from past to future, is believed to emanate as a result of the natural evolution of entropy from low to high, with low entropy defining our notion of ‘before’ and high entropy defining our notion of ‘after’. Here we explored this proposed relationship between entropy and the perception of time’s arrow. We predicted that if the brain has some mechanism for detecting entropy, whose output feeds into processes involved in constructing our perception of the direction of time, presentation of violations to the expectation that low entropy defines ‘before’ and high entropy defines ‘after’ would alert this mechanism, leading to measurable behavioral effects, namely a disruption in duration perception. To test this hypothesis, participants were shown briefly-presented (1000 ms or 500 ms) computer-generated visual dynamic events: novel 3D shapes that were seen either to evolve from whole figures into parts (low to high entropy condition) or were seen in the reverse direction: parts that coalesced into whole figures (high to low entropy condition). On each trial, participants were instructed to reproduce the duration of their visual experience of the stimulus by pressing and releasing the space bar. To ensure that attention was being deployed to the stimuli, a secondary task was to report the direction of the visual event (forward or reverse motion). Participants completed 60 trials. As predicted, we found that duration reproduction was significantly longer for the high to low entropy condition compared to the low to high entropy condition (p=.03). This preliminary data suggests the presence of a neural mechanism that detects entropy, which is used by other processes to construct our perception of the direction of time or time’s arrow.

Keywords: time perception, entropy, temporal illusions, duration perception

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Authors: James Ladzekpo

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Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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Authors: Tamrat Tesfaye, Tilahun Seyoum, K. Shabaridharan

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The objective of this paper was to determine the effect of NaOH concentration, soaking time, soaking temperature and their interaction on percentage yield of fibre extract using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design was employed to optimize the extraction process of cellulosic fibre from sugar cane by-product bagasse using low alkaline extraction technique. The quadratic model with the optimal technological conditions resulted in a maximum fibre yield of 56.80% at 0.55N NaOH concentration, 4 h steeping time and 60ᵒC soaking temperature. Among the independent variables concentration was found to be the most significant (P < 0.005) variable and the interaction effect of concentration and soaking time leads to securing the optimized processes.

Keywords: sugarcane bagasse, low alkaline, Box-Behnken, fibre

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Authors: Sergey Sorokin, Irina Sorokina, Alexander Yazenin

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We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters estimation.

Keywords: possibility distribution, parameters estimation, Maxmin u\E estimator, fuzzy model identification

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Authors: Zeina Bou Diab, Arij Daou

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The neural mechanisms of sequential behaviors are intensively studied, with songbirds a focus for learned vocal production. We are studying the premotor nucleus HVC at a nexus of multiple pathways contributing to song learning and production. The HVC consists of multiple classes of neuronal populations, each has its own cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. During singing, a large subset of motor cortex analog-projecting HVCRA neurons emit a single 6-10 ms burst of spikes at the same time during each rendition of song, a large subset of basal ganglia-projecting HVCX neurons fire 1 to 4 bursts that are similarly time locked to vocalizations, while HVCINT neurons fire tonically at average high frequency throughout song with prominent modulations whose timing in relation to song remains unresolved. This opens the opportunity to define models relating explicit HVC circuitry to how these neurons work cooperatively to control learning and singing. We developed conductance-based Hodgkin-Huxley models for the three classes of HVC neurons (based on the ion channels previously identified from in vitro recordings) and connected them in several physiologically realistic networks (based on the known synaptic connectivity and specific glutaminergic and gabaergic pharmacology) via different architecture patterning scenarios with the aim to replicate the in vivo firing patterning behaviors. We are able, through these networks, to reproduce the in vivo behavior of each class of HVC neurons, as shown by the experimental recordings. The different network architectures developed highlight different mechanisms that might be contributing to the propagation of sequential neural activity (continuous or punctate) in the HVC and to the distinctive firing patterns that each class exhibits during singing. Examples of such possible mechanisms include: 1) post-inhibitory rebound in HVCX and their population patterns during singing, 2) different subclasses of HVCINT interacting via inhibitory-inhibitory loops, 3) mono-synaptic HVCX to HVCRA excitatory connectivity, and 4) structured many-to-one inhibitory synapses from interneurons to projection neurons, and others. Replication is only a preliminary step that must be followed by model prediction and testing.

Keywords: computational modeling, neural networks, temporal neural sequences, ionic currents, songbird

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Nitika, Navneet Kaur, Rajesh Khanna

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A hand-fan shaped microstrip patch antenna (MPA) for L-band and S-band applications is designed, and its characteristics have been reconnoitered. The proposed microstrip patch antenna with double U-slot defected ground structure (DGS) is fabricated on an FR4 substrate which is a very readily available and inexpensive material. The suggested antenna is optimized using Orthogonal Design Method (ODM) of Design of Experiments (DOE) to cover the frequency range from 0.91-2.82 GHz for L-band and S-band applications. The L-band covers the frequency range of 1-2 GHz, which is allocated to telemetry, aeronautical, and military systems for passive satellite sensors, weather radars, radio astronomy, and mobile communication. The S-band covers the frequency range of 2-3 GHz, which is used by weather radars, surface ship radars and communication satellites and is also reserved for various wireless applications such as Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (Wi-MAX), super high frequency radio frequency identification (SHF RFID), industrial, scientific and medical bands (ISM), Bluetooth, wireless broadband (Wi-Bro) and wireless local area network (WLAN). The proposed method of optimization is very time efficient and accurate as compared to the conventional evolutionary algorithms due to its statistical strategy. Moreover, the antenna is tested, followed by the comparison of simulated and measured results.

Keywords: design of experiments, hand fan shaped MPA, L-Band, orthogonal design method, S-Band

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Authors: Azam Fazelpour, Saeed Reza Dehghani, Vlastimil Masek, Yuri S. Muzychka

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The study uses a novel image analysis based on thermal imaging to detect temperature contours created on salt ice surface during transient phenomena. Thermal cameras detect objects by using their emissivities and IR radiance. The ice surface temperature is not uniform during transient processes. The temperature starts to increase from the boundary of ice towards the center of that. Thermal cameras are able to report temperature changes on the ice surface at every individual moment. Various contours, which show different temperature areas, appear on the ice surface picture captured by a thermal camera. Identifying the exact boundary of these contours is valuable to facilitate ice surface temperature analysis. Image processing techniques are used to extract each contour area precisely. In this study, several pictures are recorded while the temperature is increasing throughout the ice surface. Some pictures are selected to be processed by a specific time interval. An image segmentation method is applied to images to determine the contour areas. Color thermal images are used to exploit the main information. Red, green and blue elements of color images are investigated to find the best contour boundaries. The algorithms of image enhancement and noise removal are applied to images to obtain a high contrast and clear image. A novel edge detection algorithm based on differences in the color of the pixels is established to determine contour boundaries. In this method, the edges of the contours are obtained according to properties of red, blue and green image elements. The color image elements are assessed considering their information. Useful elements proceed to process and useless elements are removed from the process to reduce the consuming time. Neighbor pixels with close intensities are assigned in one contour and differences in intensities determine boundaries. The results are then verified by conducting experimental tests. An experimental setup is performed using ice samples and a thermal camera. To observe the created ice contour by the thermal camera, the samples, which are initially at -20° C, are contacted with a warmer surface. Pictures are captured for 20 seconds. The method is applied to five images ,which are captured at the time intervals of 5 seconds. The study shows the green image element carries no useful information; therefore, the boundary detection method is applied on red and blue image elements. In this case study, the results indicate that proposed algorithm shows the boundaries more effective than other edges detection methods such as Sobel and Canny. Comparison between the contour detection in this method and temperature analysis, which states real boundaries, shows a good agreement. This color image edge detection method is applicable to other similar cases according to their image properties.

Keywords: color image processing, edge detection, ice contour boundary, salt ice, thermal image

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Authors: Moez Yeddes

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The property of opacity is widely used in the formal verification of security in computer systems and protocols. Opacity is a general language-theoretic scheme of many security properties of systems. Opacity is parametrized with framework in which several security properties of a system can be expressed. A secret behaviour of a system is opaque if a passive attacker can never deduce its occurrence from the system observation. Instead of considering the case of static observability where the set of observable events is fixed off-line or dynamic observability where the set of observable events changes over time depending on the history of the trace, we introduce Orwellian partial observability where unobservable events are not revealed provided that downgrading events never occurs in the future of the trace. Orwellian partial observability is needed to model intransitive information flow. This Orwellian observability is knwon as ipurge function. We show in previous work how to verify opacity for regular secret is opaque for a regular language L w.r.t. an Orwellian projection is PSPACE-complete while it has been proved undecidable even for a regular language L w.r.t. a general Orwellian observation function. In this paper, we address two problems of opacification of a regular secret ϕ for a regular language L w.r.t. an Orwellian projection: Given L and a secret ϕ ∈ L, the first problem consist to compute some minimal regular super-language M of L, if it exists, such that ϕ is opaque for M and the second consists to compute the supremal sub-language M′ of L such that ϕ is opaque for M′. We derive both language-theoretic characterizations and algorithms to solve these two dual problems.

Keywords: security policies, opacity, formal verification, orwellian observation

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Authors: Abdul Rehman, Bo Liu

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Axial flow turbines are commonly designed with high loads that generate strong secondary flows and result in high secondary losses. These losses contribute to almost 30% to 50% of the total losses. Non-axisymmetric endwall profiling is one of the passive control technique to reduce the secondary flow loss. In this paper, the non-axisymmetric endwall profile construction and optimization for the stator endwalls are presented to improve the efficiency of a high pressure turbine. The commercial code NUMECA Fine/ Design3D coupled with Fine/Turbo was used for the numerical investigation, design of experiments and the optimization. All the flow simulations were conducted by using steady RANS and Spalart-Allmaras as a turbulence model. The non-axisymmetric endwalls of stator hub and shroud were created by using the perturbation law based on Bezier Curves. Each cut having multiple control points was supposed to be created along the virtual streamlines in the blade channel. For the design of experiments, each sample was arbitrarily generated based on values automatically chosen for the control points defined during parameterization. The Optimization was achieved by using two algorithms i.e. the stochastic algorithm and gradient-based algorithm. For the stochastic algorithm, a genetic algorithm based on the artificial neural network was used as an optimization method in order to achieve the global optimum. The evaluation of the successive design iterations was performed using artificial neural network prior to the flow solver. For the second case, the conjugate gradient algorithm with a three dimensional CFD flow solver was used to systematically vary a free-form parameterization of the endwall. This method is efficient and less time to consume as it requires derivative information of the objective function. The objective function was to maximize the isentropic efficiency of the turbine by keeping the mass flow rate as constant. The performance was quantified by using a multi-objective function. Other than these two classifications of the optimization methods, there were four optimizations cases i.e. the hub only, the shroud only, and the combination of hub and shroud. For the fourth case, the shroud endwall was optimized by using the optimized hub endwall geometry. The hub optimization resulted in an increase in the efficiency due to more homogenous inlet conditions for the rotor. The adverse pressure gradient was reduced but the total pressure loss in the vicinity of the hub was increased. The shroud optimization resulted in an increase in efficiency, total pressure loss and entropy were reduced. The combination of hub and shroud did not show overwhelming results which were achieved for the individual cases of the hub and the shroud. This may be caused by fact that there were too many control variables. The fourth case of optimization showed the best result because optimized hub was used as an initial geometry to optimize the shroud. The efficiency was increased more than the individual cases of optimization with a mass flow rate equal to the baseline design of the turbine. The results of artificial neural network and conjugate gradient method were compared.

Keywords: artificial neural network, axial turbine, conjugate gradient method, non-axisymmetric endwall, optimization

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Authors: N. Kh. Gomidze, I. N. Jabnidze, K. A. Makharadze

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The influence of inhomogeneities of plasma and statistical characteristics on the propagation of signal is very actual in wireless communication systems. While propagating in the media, the deformation and evaluation of the signal in time and space take place and on the receiver we get a deformed signal. The present article is dedicated to studying the space-time evolution of rectangular, sinusoidal, exponential and bi-exponential impulses via numerical experiment in the collisional, cold plasma. The presented method is not based on the Fourier-presentation of the signal. Analytically, we have received the general image depicting the space-time evolution of the radio impulse amplitude that gives an opportunity to analyze the concrete results in the case of primary impulse.

Keywords: collisional, cold plasma, rectangular pulse signal, impulse envelope

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Authors: Mehmet Hakan Karaata

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In this paper, we first coin a new graph theocratic problem with numerous applications. Second, we provide two algorithms for the problem. The first solution is using a brute-force techniques, whereas the second solution is based on an initial identification of the cycles in the given graph. We then provide a correctness proof of the algorithm. The applications of the problem include graph analysis, graph drawing and network structuring.

Keywords: algorithm, cycle, graph algorithm, graph theory, network structuring

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Authors: Ricardo Daziano

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In the analysis and planning of the mobility ecosystem, preferences for ride-hailing over incumbent street-hailing services need better understanding. In this paper, a seminonparametric discrete choice model that allows for flexible preference heterogeneity is fitted with data from a discrete choice experiment among adult commuters in Montreal, Canada (N=760). Participants chose among Uber, Teo (a local electric ride-hailing service that was in operation when data was collected in 2018), and a standard taxi when presented with information about cost, time (on-trip, waiting, walking), powertrain of the car (gasoline/hybrid) for Uber and taxi, and whether the available electric Teo was a Tesla (which was one of the actual features of the Teo fleet). The fitted flexible model offers several behavioral insights. Waiting time for ride-hailing services is associated with a statistically significant but low marginal disutility. For other time components, including on-ride, and street-hailing waiting and walking the estimates of the value of time show an interesting pattern: whereas in a conditional logit on-ride time reductions are valued higher, in the flexible LML specification means of the value of time follow the expected pattern of waiting and walking creating a higher disutility. At the same time, the LML estimates show the presence of important, multimodal unobserved preference heterogeneity.

Keywords: discrete choice, electric taxis, ridehailing, semiparametrics

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Authors: Mohammed H. Rady, Mohd Sukri Mustapa, S Shamsudin, M. A. Lajis, A. Wagiman

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The present study is aimed at investigating microhardness and density of aluminium alloy chips when subjected to various settings of preheating temperature and preheating time. Three values of preheating temperature were taken as 450 °C, 500 °C, and 550 °C. On the other hand, three values of preheating time were chosen (1, 2, 3) hours. The influences of the process parameters (preheating temperature and time) were analyzed using Design of Experiments (DOE) approach whereby full factorial design with center point analysis was adopted. The total runs were 11 and they comprise of two factors of full factorial design with 3 center points. The responses were microhardness and density. The results showed that the density and microhardness increased with decreasing the preheating temperature. The results also found that the preheating temperature is more important to be controlled rather than the preheating time in microhardness analysis while both the preheating temperature and preheating time are important in density analysis. It can be concluded that setting temperature at 450 °C for 1 hour resulted in the optimum responses.

Keywords: AA6061, density, DOE, hot extrusion, microhardness

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Authors: Bo Zhang, Ellen S. Wilschut, Dehlia M. C. Willemsen, Marieke H. Martens

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With the rapid development of intelligent transportation systems, automated platooning of trucks is drawing increasing interest for its beneficial effects on safety, energy consumption and traffic flow efficiency. Nevertheless, one major challenge lies in the safe transition of control from the automated system back to the human drivers, especially when they have been inattentive after a long period of highly automated driving. In this study, we investigated driver take-over time after a system initiated request to leave the platooning system Virtual Tow Bar in a non-critical scenario. 22 professional truck drivers participated in the truck driving simulator experiment, and each was instructed to drive under three experimental conditions before the presentation of the take-over request (TOR): driver ready (drivers were instructed to monitor the road constantly), driver not-ready (drivers were provided with a tablet) and eye-shut. The results showed significantly longer take-over time in both driver not-ready and eye-shut conditions compared with the driver ready condition. Further analysis revealed hand movement time as the main factor causing long response time in the driver not-ready condition, while in the eye-shut condition, gaze reaction time also influenced the total take-over time largely. In addition to comparing the means, large individual differences can be found especially in two driver, not attentive conditions. The importance of a personalized driver readiness predictor for a safe transition is concluded.

Keywords: driving simulation, highly automated driving, take-over time, transition of control, truck platooning

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Authors: Nahed Al-Hajeri

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Time and cost is an integral part of every construction plan and can affect each party’s contractual obligations. The performance of both time and cost are usually important to the client and contractor during the project. Almost all construction projects are experiencing time overrun. These time overruns always contributed as expensive to both client and contractor. Construction of any project inside the gathering centers involves complex management skills related to work force, materials, plant, machineries, new technologies etc. It also involves many agencies interdependent on each other like the vendors, structural and functional designers including various types of specialized engineers and it includes support of contractors and specialized contractors. This paper mainly highlights the types of construction delays due to which project suffer time and cost overrun. This paper also speaks about the delay causes and factors that contribute to the construction sequence delay for the oil and gas projects. Construction delay is supposed to be one of the repeated problems in the construction projects and it has an opposing effect on project success in terms of time, cost and quality. Some effective methods are identified to minimize delays in construction projects such as: 1. Site management and supervision, 2. Effective strategic planning, 3. Clear information and communication channel. Our research paper studies the types of delay with some real examples with statistic results and suggests solutions to overcome this problem.

Keywords: non-compensable delay, delays caused by force majeure, compensable delay, delays caused by the owner or the owner’s representative, non-excusable delay, delay caused by the contractor or the contractor’s representative, concurrent delay, delays resulting from two separate causes at the same time

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Authors: Umamaheswari Shanmugam, Silvia Ronchi, Radu Vornicu

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Software, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can improve healthcare through innovative and advanced technologies that are able to use the large amount and variety of data generated during healthcare services every day. As we read the news, over 500 machine learning or other artificial intelligence medical devices have now received FDA clearance or approval, the first ones even preceding the year 2000. One of the big advantages of these new technologies is the ability to get experience and knowledge from real-world use and to continuously improve their performance. Healthcare systems and institutions can have a great benefit because the use of advanced technologies improves the same time efficiency and efficacy of healthcare. Software-defined as a medical device, is stand-alone software that is intended to be used for patients for one or more of these specific medical intended uses: - diagnosis, prevention, monitoring, prediction, prognosis, treatment or alleviation of a disease, any other health conditions, replacing or modifying any part of a physiological or pathological process–manage the received information from in vitro specimens derived from the human samples (body) and without principal main action of its principal intended use by pharmacological, immunological or metabolic definition. Software qualified as medical devices must comply with the general safety and performance requirements applicable to medical devices. These requirements are necessary to ensure high performance and quality and also to protect patients’ safety. The evolution and the continuous improvement of software used in healthcare must take into consideration the increase in regulatory requirements, which are becoming more complex in each market. The gap between these advanced technologies and the new regulations is the biggest challenge for medical device manufacturers. Regulatory requirements can be considered a market barrier, as they can delay or obstacle the device approval, but they are necessary to ensure performance, quality, and safety, and at the same time, they can be a business opportunity if the manufacturer is able to define in advance the appropriate regulatory strategy. The abstract will provide an overview of the current regulatory framework, the evolution of the international requirements, and the standards applicable to medical device software in the potential market all over the world.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, SaMD, regulatory, clinical evaluation, classification, international requirements, MDR, 510k, PMA, IMDRF, cyber security, health care systems.

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Authors: Sarra Haouala, Issam Doghri

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In this work, a multiscale computational strategy is proposed for the analysis of structures, which are described at a refined level both in space and in time. The proposal is applied to two-phase viscoelastic-viscoplastic (VE-VP) reinforced thermoplastics subjected to large numbers of cycles. The main aim is to predict the effective long time response while reducing the computational cost considerably. The proposed computational framework is a combination of the mean-field space homogenization based on the generalized incrementally affine formulation for VE-VP composites, and the asymptotic time homogenization approach for coupled isotropic VE-VP homogeneous solids under large numbers of cycles. The time homogenization method is based on the definition of micro and macro-chronological time scales, and on asymptotic expansions of the unknown variables. First, the original anisotropic VE-VP initial-boundary value problem of the composite material is decomposed into coupled micro-chronological (fast time scale) and macro-chronological (slow time-scale) problems. The former is purely VE, and solved once for each macro time step, whereas the latter problem is nonlinear and solved iteratively using fully implicit time integration. Second, mean-field space homogenization is used for both micro and macro-chronological problems to determine the micro and macro-chronological effective behavior of the composite material. The response of the matrix material is VE-VP with J2 flow theory assuming small strains. The formulation exploits the return-mapping algorithm for the J2 model, with its two steps: viscoelastic predictor and plastic corrections. The proposal is implemented for an extended Mori-Tanaka scheme, and verified against finite element simulations of representative volume elements, for a number of polymer composite materials subjected to large numbers of cycles.

Keywords: asymptotic expansions, cyclic loadings, inclusion-reinforced thermoplastics, mean-field homogenization, time homogenization

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Authors: Aysegul Sarac

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The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of integrating agile development principles and practices, in particular to reduce project lead time in a multi-project environment. We analyze Arçelik Washing Machine R&D Center in which multiple projects are conducted by shared resources. In the first part of the study, we illustrate the current waterfall model system by using a value stream map. We define all activities starting from the first idea of the project to the customer and measure process time and lead time of projects. In the second part of the study we estimate potential improvements and select a set of these improvements to integrate agile principles. We aim to develop a future state map and analyze the impacts of integrating lean principles on project lead time. The main contribution of this study is that we analyze and integrate agile product development principles in a real multi-project system.

Keywords: agile project management, multi project system, project lead time, product development

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Authors: Raju Ranjha, Surbhi Aggarwal

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Background: Inflammation plays an important role in infectious and non-infectious diseases. MiRNA is also reported to play role in inflammation and associated cancers. Chemokine CXCL12 is also known to play role in inflammation and various cancers. CXCL12/CXCR4 chemokine axis was involved in pathogenesis of IBD specially UC. Supplementation of CXCL12 induces homing of dendritic cells to spleen and enhances control of plasmodium parasite in BALB/c mice. We looked at the regulation of CXCL12β by miRNA in UC colitis. Prolonged inflammation of colon in UC patient increases the risk of developing colorectal cancer. We looked at the expression differences of CXCl12β and its targeting miRNA in cancer susceptible area of colon of UC patients. Aim: Aim of this study was to find out the expression regulation of CXCL12β by miRNA in inflammation. Materials and Methods: Biopsy samples and blood samples were collected from UC patients and non-IBD controls. mRNA expression was analyzed using microarray and real-time PCR. CXCL12β targeting miRNA were looked by using online target prediction tools. Expression of CXCL12β in blood samples and cell line supernatant was analyzed using ELISA. miRNA target was validated using dual luciferase assay. Results and conclusion: We found miR-200a regulate the expression of CXCL12β in UC. Expression of CXCL12β was increased in cancer susceptible part of colon and expression of its targeting miRNA was decreased in the same part of colon. miR-200a regulate CXCL12β expression in inflammation and may be an important therapeutic target in inflammation associated cancer.

Keywords: inflammation, miRNA, regulation, CXCL12

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Authors: Pallavi Bhogaram, Xiaolong Wu, Min He, Onyedikachi Okenwa

Abstract:

A transportation network is a realization of a spatial network, describing a structure which permits either vehicular movement or flow of some commodity. Examples include road networks, railways, air routes, pipelines, and many more. The transportation network plays a vital role in maintaining the vigor of the nation’s economy. Hence, ensuring the network stays resilient all the time, especially in the face of challenges such as heavy traffic loads and large scale natural disasters, is of utmost importance. In this paper, we used the Neo4j application to develop the graph. Neo4j is the world's leading open-source, NoSQL, a native graph database that implements an ACID-compliant transactional backend to applications. The Southern California network model is developed using the Neo4j application and obtained the most critical and optimal nodes and paths in the network using centrality algorithms. The edge betweenness centrality algorithm calculates the critical or optimal paths using Yen's k-shortest paths algorithm, and the node betweenness centrality algorithm calculates the amount of influence a node has over the network. The preliminary study results confirm that the Neo4j application can be a suitable tool to study the important nodes and the critical paths for the major congested metropolitan area.

Keywords: critical path, transportation network, connectivity reliability, network model, Neo4j application, edge betweenness centrality index

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Authors: Xin Zhao

Abstract:

The project aims to expand the notion of narrative learning and address the importance of learning by reflection in our learning and teaching context at a British university. Drawing on the key concepts such as development ZPD, transition and reflection-in and –on-action, this project analyses the learning experiences of a small sample of Chinese postgraduate students in a British University, who use part-time job experience to develop cross-cultural communication skills. The project adopts a mixed methods approach. Questionnaires and focus group interviews are used to examine the way in which students adapt (or not adapt) to the culture of learning in a British university and develop a renewed sense of self in transitions from one culture to the other. The project also looks at how the students appropriate opportunities for learning not just from classrooms but outside classrooms from everyday encounters. The project aims to address the implication of learning by reflection as development in transition. Time in and for learning, or duration, is taken for granted in theorising narrative learning. The project shall explore this very issue of time in relation to learning by reflection in considering time in/of/for learning as duration.

Keywords: cross-cultural competence, learning by refection, international student transition, part-time work experience

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Authors: Sung-Wook Shin, Sung-Taek Chung

Abstract:

Hand grip strength has been utilized as an indicator to evaluate the motor ability of hands, responsible for performing multiple body functions. It is, however, difficult to evaluate other factors (other than hand muscular strength) utilizing the hand grip strength only. In this study, we analyzed the motor ability of hands using EMG and the hand grip strength, simultaneously in order to evaluate concentration, muscular strength reaction time, instantaneous muscular strength change, and agility in response to visual reaction. In results, the average time (and their standard deviations) of muscular strength reaction EMG signal and hand grip strength was found to be 209.6 ± 56.2 ms and 354.3 ± 54.6 ms, respectively. In addition, the onset time which represents acceleration time to reach 90% of maximum hand grip strength, was 382.9 ± 129.9 ms.

Keywords: hand grip strength, EMG, visual reaction, endurance

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Authors: Gyu-Dong Kim, Wuk-Jae Yoo, Sang-Youl Lee

Abstract:

Composite structures offer numerous advantages over conventional structural systems in the form of higher specific stiffness and strength, lower life-cycle costs, and benefits such as easy installation and improved safety. Recently, there has been a considerable increase in the use of composites in engineering applications and as wraps for seismic upgrading and repairs. However, these composites deteriorate with time because of outdated materials, excessive use, repetitive loading, climatic conditions, manufacturing errors, and deficiencies in inspection methods. In particular, damaged fibers in a composite result in significant degradation of structural performance. In order to reduce the failure probability of composites in service, techniques to assess the condition of the composites to prevent continual growth of fiber damage are required. Condition assessment technology and nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques have provided various solutions for the safety of structures by means of detecting damage or defects from static or dynamic responses induced by external loading. A variety of techniques based on detecting the changes in static or dynamic behavior of isotropic structures has been developed in the last two decades. These methods, based on analytical approaches, are limited in their capabilities in dealing with complex systems, primarily because of their limitations in handling different loading and boundary conditions. Recently, investigators have introduced direct search methods based on metaheuristics techniques and artificial intelligence, such as genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA) methods, and neural networks (NN), and have promisingly applied these methods to the field of structural identification. Among them, GAs attract our attention because they do not require a considerable amount of data in advance in dealing with complex problems and can make a global solution search possible as opposed to classical gradient-based optimization techniques. In this study, we propose an alternative damage-detection technique that can determine the degraded stiffness distribution of vibrating laminated composites made of Glass Fiber-reinforced Polymer (GFRP). The proposed method uses a modified form of the bivariate Gaussian distribution function to detect degraded stiffness characteristics. In addition, this study presents a method to detect the fiber property variation of laminated composite plates from the micromechanical point of view. The finite element model is used to study free vibrations of laminated composite plates for fiber stiffness degradation. In order to solve the inverse problem using the combined method, this study uses only first mode shapes in a structure for the measured frequency data. In particular, this study focuses on the effect of the interaction among various parameters, such as fiber angles, layup sequences, and damage distributions, on fiber-stiffness damage detection.

Keywords: stiffness detection, fiber damage, genetic algorithm, layup sequences

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Authors: Kazuyoshi Mori

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the parametrization of the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element within the framework of the factorization approach. In the parametrization, we investigate the number of required parameters. We consider single-input single-output systems in this paper. By the investigation, we find, on the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element, three cases that are (1) there exist plants which require only one parameter and (2) two parameters, and (3) the number of parameters is at most three.

Keywords: factorization approach, discrete-time system, parameterization of stabilizing controllers, system without unit-delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 223