Search results for: supply and demand prediction

Authors: Timothy Francis Grant

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There are conflicting purposes at play with the design of sustainable packaging which include material reduction, recycling compatibility, use of secondary content and performance of the package in protecting and delivering the product. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is able to evaluate these different strategies against environmental metrics such as climate change, land and water use and marine litter pollution. However, LCA has traditionally been too time consuming and expensive to be used effectively in packaging design process. To make LCA practical for packaging technologist and designers a simplified tool is needed to make LCA possible for non-environmental specialists. The Packaging Quick Evaluation Tool (PIQET) is a web-based solution for undertaking LCA of new and existing packaging designs considering the global supply chain and impacts from cradle to grave. PIQET is based on a pre-calculated LCA database covering the materials and processes involved in the packaging lifecycle from cradle to grave. This includes both virgin materials and recycled content, conversion of materials into packaging, and the transportation of packaging to the product filling. In addition, PIQET assesses the impacts once the package is filled looking at storage, transport and product loss through the supply chain. When applied to consumer packaging light weight packages which are note recyclable have lower impacts than more recyclable packages which have a higher mass. Its also apparent that for many products the impacts of product failure and product loss are more important environmentally compared to packaging material efficiency.

Keywords: Climate change, Life Cycle Assessment, Marine litter, Packaging sustainability

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Authors: Anuruddha Jayasuriya, Thanakorn Pheeraphan

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In this paper, a review of different mathematical models which can be used as prediction tools to assess the time to crack reinforced concrete (RC) due to corrosion is investigated. This investigation leads to an experimental study to validate a selected prediction model. Most of these mathematical models depend upon the mechanical behaviors, chemical behaviors, electrochemical behaviors or geometric aspects of the RC members during a corrosion process. The experimental program is designed to verify the accuracy of a well-selected mathematical model from a rigorous literature study. Fundamentally, the experimental program exemplifies both one-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared slab elements of 500 mm by 500 mm and two-dimensional chloride diffusion using RC squared column elements of 225 mm by 225 mm by 500 mm. Each set consists of three water-to-cement ratios (w/c); 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and two cover depths; 25 mm and 50 mm. 12 mm bars are used for column elements and 16 mm bars are used for slab elements. All the samples are subjected to accelerated chloride corrosion in a chloride bath of 5% (w/w) sodium chloride (NaCl) solution. Based on a pre-screening of different models, it is clear that the well-selected mathematical model had included mechanical properties, chemical and electrochemical properties, nature of corrosion whether it is accelerated or natural, and the amount of porous area that rust products can accommodate before exerting expansive pressure on the surrounding concrete. The experimental results have shown that the selected model for both one-dimensional and two-dimensional chloride diffusion had ±20% and ±10% respective accuracies compared to the experimental output. The half-cell potential readings are also used to see the corrosion probability, and experimental results have shown that the mass loss is proportional to the negative half-cell potential readings that are obtained. Additionally, a statistical analysis is carried out in order to determine the most influential factor that affects the time to corrode the reinforcement in the concrete due to chloride diffusion. The factors considered for this analysis are w/c, bar diameter, and cover depth. The analysis is accomplished by using Minitab statistical software, and it showed that cover depth is the significant effect on the time to crack the concrete from chloride induced corrosion than other factors considered. Thus, the time predictions can be illustrated through the selected mathematical model as it covers a wide range of factors affecting the corrosion process, and it can be used to predetermine the durability concern of RC structures that are vulnerable to chloride exposure. And eventually, it is further concluded that cover thickness plays a vital role in durability in terms of chloride diffusion.

Keywords: accelerated corrosion, chloride diffusion, corrosion cracks, passivation layer, reinforcement corrosion

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Authors: Tahani Aljohani, Jialin Yu, Alexandra. I. Cristea

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The more an educational system knows about a learner, the more personalised interaction it can provide, which leads to better learning. However, asking a learner directly is potentially disruptive, and often ignored by learners. Especially in the booming realm of MOOC Massive Online Learning platforms, only a very low percentage of users disclose demographic information about themselves. Thus, in this paper, we aim to predict learners’ demographic characteristics, by proposing an approach using linguistically motivated Deep Learning Architectures for Learner Profiling, particularly targeting gender prediction on a FutureLearn MOOC platform. Additionally, we tackle here the difficult problem of predicting the gender of learners based on their comments only – which are often available across MOOCs. The most common current approaches to text classification use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, considering sentences as sequences. However, human language also has structures. In this research, rather than considering sentences as plain sequences, we hypothesise that higher semantic - and syntactic level sentence processing based on linguistics will render a richer representation. We thus evaluate, the traditional LSTM versus other bleeding edge models, which take into account syntactic structure, such as tree-structured LSTM, Stack-augmented Parser-Interpreter Neural Network (SPINN) and the Structure-Aware Tag Augmented model (SATA). Additionally, we explore using different word-level encoding functions. We have implemented these methods on Our MOOC dataset, which is the most performant one comparing with a public dataset on sentiment analysis that is further used as a cross-examining for the models' results.

Keywords: deep learning, data mining, gender predication, MOOCs

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Authors: Christina Kirsch, Adam Hatzigiannis

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Rail operators and maintainers worldwide are increasingly replacing walking patrols in the rail corridor with mechanized track patrols -essentially data capture on trains- and on-screen reviews of track infrastructure in centralized review facilities. The benefit is that infrastructure workers are less exposed to the dangers of the rail corridor. The impact is a significant change in work design from walking track sections and direct observation in the real world to sedentary jobs in the review facility reviewing captured data on screens. Defects in rail infrastructure can have catastrophic consequences. Reviewer performance regarding accuracy and efficiency of reviews within the available time frame is essential to ensure safety and operational performance. Rail operators must optimize workload and resource loading to transition to on-screen reviews successfully. Therefore, they need to know what workload assessment methodologies will provide reliable and valid data to optimize resourcing for on-screen reviews. This paper compares objective workload measures, including track difficulty ratings and review distance covered per hour, and subjective workload assessments (NASA TLX) and analyses the link between workload and reviewer performance, including sensitivity, precision, and overall accuracy. An experimental study was completed with eight on-screen reviewers, including infrastructure workers and engineers, reviewing track sections with different levels of track difficulty over nine days. Each day the reviewers completed four 90-minute sessions of on-screen inspection of the track infrastructure. Data regarding the speed of review (km/ hour), detected defects, false negatives, and false positives were collected. Additionally, all reviewers completed a subjective workload assessment (NASA TLX) after each 90-minute session and a short employee engagement survey at the end of the study period that captured impacts on job satisfaction and motivation. The results showed that objective measures for tracking difficulty align with subjective mental demand, temporal demand, effort, and frustration in the NASA TLX. Interestingly, review speed correlated with subjective assessments of physical and temporal demand, but to mental demand. Subjective performance ratings correlated with all accuracy measures and review speed. The results showed that subjective NASA TLX workload assessments accurately reflect objective workload. The analysis of the impact of workload on performance showed that subjective mental demand correlated with high precision -accurately detected defects, not false positives. Conversely, high temporal demand was negatively correlated with sensitivity and the percentage of detected existing defects. Review speed was significantly correlated with false negatives. With an increase in review speed, accuracy declined. On the other hand, review speed correlated with subjective performance assessments. Reviewers thought their performance was higher when they reviewed the track sections faster, despite the decline in accuracy. The study results were used to optimize resourcing and ensure that reviewers had enough time to review the allocated track sections to improve defect detection rates in accordance with the efficiency-thoroughness trade-off. Overall, the study showed the importance of a multi-method approach to workload assessment and optimization, combining subjective workload assessments with objective workload and performance measures to ensure that recommendations for work system optimization are evidence-based and reliable.

Keywords: automation, efficiency-thoroughness trade-off, human factors, job design, NASA TLX, performance optimization, subjective workload assessment, workload analysis

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Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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Authors: Abdulkarim Nasir, Alhassan T. Yahaya, Hauwa T. Abdulkarim, Abdussalam El-Suleiman, Yakubu K. Abubakar

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The need for sustainable and reliable electricity supply in rural communities of Nigeria remains a pressing issue, given the country's vast energy deficit and the significant number of inhabitants lacking access to electricity. This research focuses on the development of a portable hybrid renewable energy system designed to provide a sustainable and efficient electricity supply to these underserved regions. The proposed system integrates multiple renewable energy sources, specifically solar and wind, to harness the abundant natural resources available in Nigeria. The design and development process involves the selection and optimization of components such as photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, energy storage units (batteries), and power management systems. These components are chosen based on their suitability for rural environments, cost-effectiveness, and ease of maintenance. The hybrid system is designed to be portable, allowing for easy transportation and deployment in remote locations with limited infrastructure. Key to the system's effectiveness is its hybrid nature, which ensures continuous power supply by compensating for the intermittent nature of individual renewable sources. Solar energy is harnessed during the day, while wind energy is captured whenever wind conditions are favourable, thus ensuring a more stable and reliable energy output. Energy storage units are critical in this setup, storing excess energy generated during peak production times and supplying power during periods of low renewable generation. These studies include assessing the solar irradiance, wind speed patterns, and energy consumption needs of rural communities. The simulation results inform the optimization of the system's design to maximize energy efficiency and reliability. This paper presents the development and evaluation of a 4 kW standalone hybrid system combining wind and solar power. The portable device measures approximately 8 feet 5 inches in width, 8 inches 4 inches in depth, and around 38 feet in height. It includes four solar panels with a capacity of 120 watts each, a 1.5 kW wind turbine, a solar charge controller, remote power storage, batteries, and battery control mechanisms. Designed to operate independently of the grid, this hybrid device offers versatility for use in highways and various other applications. It also presents a summary and characterization of the device, along with photovoltaic data collected in Nigeria during the month of April. The construction plan for the hybrid energy tower is outlined, which involves combining a vertical-axis wind turbine with solar panels to harness both wind and solar energy. Positioned between the roadway divider and automobiles, the tower takes advantage of the air velocity generated by passing vehicles. The solar panels are strategically mounted to deflect air toward the turbine while generating energy. Generators and gear systems attached to the turbine shaft enable power generation, offering a portable solution to energy challenges in Nigerian communities. The study also addresses the economic feasibility of the system, considering the initial investment costs, maintenance, and potential savings from reduced fossil fuel use. A comparative analysis with traditional energy supply methods highlights the long-term benefits and sustainability of the hybrid system.

Keywords: renewable energy, solar panel, wind turbine, hybrid system, generator

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Authors: H. Tavakoli, S. S. Mohtasebi, R. Alimardani, R. Gebbers

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Nitrogen (N) is one of the most important agricultural inputs affecting crop growth, yield and quality in rain-fed cereal production. N demand of crops varies spatially across fields due to spatial differences in soil conditions. In addition, the response of a crop to the fertilizer applications is heavily reliant on plant available water. Matching N supply to water availability is thus essential to achieve an optimal crop response. The objective of this study was to determine effect of drought stress on estimation of nitrogen status of winter wheat by some vegetation indices. During the 2012 growing season, a field experiment was conducted at the Bundessortenamt (German Plant Variety Office) Marquardt experimental station which is located in the village of Marquardt about 5 km northwest of Potsdam, Germany (52°27' N, 12°57' E). The experiment was designed as a randomized split block design with two replications. Treatments consisted of four N fertilization rates (0, 60, 120 and 240 kg N ha-1, in total) and two water regimes (irrigated (Irr) and non-irrigated (NIrr)) in total of 16 plots with dimension of 4.5 × 9.0 m. The indices were calculated using readings of a spectroradiometer made of tec5 components. The main parts were two “Zeiss MMS1 nir enh” diode-array sensors with a nominal rage of 300 to 1150 nm with less than 10 nm resolutions and an effective range of 400 to 1000 nm. The following vegetation indices were calculated: NDVI, GNDVI, SR, MSR, NDRE, RDVI, REIP, SAVI, OSAVI, MSAVI, and PRI. All the experiments were conducted during the growing season in different plant growth stages including: stem elongation (BBCH=32-41), booting stage (BBCH=43), inflorescence emergence, heading (BBCH=56-58), flowering (BBCH=65-69), and development of fruit (BBCH=71). According to the results obtained, among the indices, NDRE and REIP were less affected by drought stress and can provide reliable wheat nitrogen status information, regardless of water status of the plant. They also showed strong relations with nitrogen status of winter wheat.

Keywords: nitrogen status, drought stress, vegetation indices, precision agriculture

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Authors: Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra

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Pasta is one of the most widely consumed food products around the world. Rapid determination of the moisture content in pasta will assist food processors to provide online quality control of pasta during large scale production. Rapid Fourier transform near-infrared method (FT-NIR) was developed for determining moisture content in pasta. A calibration set of 150 samples, a validation set of 30 samples and a prediction set of 25 samples of pasta were used. The diffuse reflection spectra of different types of pastas were measured by FT-NIR analyzer in the 4,000-12,000 cm-1 spectral range. Calibration and validation sets were designed for the conception and evaluation of the method adequacy in the range of moisture content 10 to 15 percent (w.b) of the pasta. The prediction models based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, were developed in the near-infrared. Conventional criteria such as the R2, the root mean square errors of cross validation (RMSECV), root mean square errors of estimation (RMSEE) as well as the number of PLS factors were considered for the selection of three pre-processing (vector normalization, minimum-maximum normalization and multiplicative scatter correction) methods. Spectra of pasta sample were treated with different mathematic pre-treatments before being used to build models between the spectral information and moisture content. The moisture content in pasta predicted by FT-NIR methods had very good correlation with their values determined via traditional methods (R2 = 0.983), which clearly indicated that FT-NIR methods could be used as an effective tool for rapid determination of moisture content in pasta. The best calibration model was developed with min-max normalization (MMN) spectral pre-processing (R2 = 0.9775). The MMN pre-processing method was found most suitable and the maximum coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.9875 was obtained for the calibration model developed.

Keywords: FT-NIR, pasta, moisture determination, food engineering

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Authors: M. Pilar Valles-gonzalez, Alejandro Gonzalez Meije, Ana Pastor Muro, Maria Garcia-Martinez, Beatriz Gonzalez Caballero

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This paper studies a failure case of a fuel pressure supply tube from an aircraft engine. Multiple fracture cases of the fuel pressure control tube from aircraft engines have been reported. The studied set was composed of the mentioned tube, a welded connecting pipe, where the fracture has been produced, and a union nut. The fracture has been produced in one most critical zones of the tube, in a region next to the supporting body of the union nut to the connector. The tube material was X6CrNiTi18-10, an austenitic stainless steel. Chemical composition was determined using an X-Ray fluorescence spectrometer (XRF) and combustion equipment. Furthermore, the material has been mechanical, by hardness test, and microstructural characterized using a stereomicroscope and an optical microscope. The results confirmed that it is within specifications. To determine the macrofractographic features, a visual examination and a stereo microscope of the tube fracture surface have been carried out. The results revealed a tube plastic macrodeformation, surface damaged, and signs of a possible corrosion process. Fracture surface was also inspected by scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), equipped with a microanalysis system by X-ray dispersive energy (EDX), to determine the microfractographic features in order to find out the failure mechanism involved in the fracture. Fatigue striations, which are typical from a progressive fracture by a fatigue mechanism, have been observed. The origin of the fracture has been placed in defects located on the outer wall of the tube, leading to a final overload fracture.

Keywords: aircraft engine, fatigue, FE-SEM, fractography, fracture, fuel tube, microstructure, stainless steel

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Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory

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Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

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Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0-25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices.

Keywords: reliability indices, load expectation, reserve margin, daily load, probability, multi-agent system

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Ruobing Liang, Jili Zhang, Chao Zhou

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A solar-heating-and-cooling (SHC) system, consisting of a hybrid photovoltaic/ thermal collector array, a hot water storage tank, and an absorption chiller unit is designed and modeled to satisfy thermal loads (space heating, domestic hot water, and space cooling). The system is applied for Dalian, China, a location with cold climate conditions, where cooling demand is moderate, while space heating demand is slightly high. The study investigates the potential of a solar system installed and operated onsite in a detached single-family household to satisfy all necessary thermal loads. The hot water storage tank is also connected to an auxiliary heater (electric boiler) to supplement solar heating, when needed. The main purpose of the study is to model the overall system and contact a parametric study that will determine the optimum economic system performance in terms of design parameters. The system is compared, through a cost analysis, to an electric heat pump (EHP) system. This paper will give the optimum system combination of solar collector area and volumetric capacity of the hot water storage tank, respectively.

Keywords: absorption chiller, solar PVT collector, solar heating and cooling, solar air-conditioning, parametric study, cost analysis

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Authors: S.K. Bhandari, E. Veneklaas, L. McCaw, R. Mazanec, K. Whitford, M. Renton

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Eucalyptus marginata, E. diversicolor and Corymbia calophylla form widespread forests in south-west Western Australia (SWWA). These forests have economic and ecological importance, and therefore, tree growth and sustainable management are of high priority. This paper aimed to analyse and model the growth of these species at both stand and individual levels, but this presentation will focus on predicting the growth of E. Marginata at the individual tree level. More specifically, the study wanted to investigate how well individual E. marginata tree growth could be predicted by considering the diameter and height of the tree at the start of the growth period, and whether this prediction could be improved by also accounting for the competition from neighbouring trees in different ways. The study also wanted to investigate how many neighbouring trees or what neighbourhood distance needed to be considered when accounting for competition. To achieve this aim, the Pearson correlation coefficient was examined among competition indices (CIs), between CIs and dbh growth, and selected the competition index that can best predict the diameter growth of individual trees of E. marginata forest managed under different thinning regimes at Inglehope in SWWA. Furthermore, individual tree growth models were developed using simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, and linear mixed effect modelling approaches. Individual tree growth models were developed for thinned and unthinned stand separately. The developed models were validated using two approaches. In the first approach, models were validated using a subset of data that was not used in model fitting. In the second approach, the model of the one growth period was validated with the data of another growth period. Tree size (diameter and height) was a significant predictor of growth. This prediction was improved when the competition was included in the model. The fit statistic (coefficient of determination) of the model ranged from 0.31 to 0.68. The model with spatial competition indices validated as being more accurate than with non-spatial indices. The model prediction can be optimized if 10 to 15 competitors (by number) or competitors within ~10 m (by distance) from the base of the subject tree are included in the model, which can reduce the time and cost of collecting the information about the competitors. As competition from neighbours was a significant predictor with a negative effect on growth, it is recommended including neighbourhood competition when predicting growth and considering thinning treatments to minimize the effect of competition on growth. These model approaches are likely to be useful tools for the conservations and sustainable management of forests of E. marginata in SWWA. As a next step in optimizing the number and distance of competitors, further studies in larger size plots and with a larger number of plots than those used in the present study are recommended.

Keywords: competition, growth, model, thinning

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Authors: Edgar Santoyo, Daniel Perez-Zarate, Agustin Acevedo, Lorena Diaz-Gonzalez, Mirna Guevara

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Four new gas geothermometers have been derived from a multivariate geo chemometric analysis of a geothermal fluid chemistry database, two of which use the natural logarithm of CO₂ and H2S concentrations (mmol/mol), respectively, and the other two use the natural logarithm of the H₂S/H₂ and CO₂/H₂ ratios. As a strict compilation criterion, the database was created with gas-phase composition of fluids and bottomhole temperatures (BHTM) measured in producing wells. The calibration of the geothermometers was based on the geochemical relationship existing between the gas-phase composition of well discharges and the equilibrium temperatures measured at bottomhole conditions. Multivariate statistical analysis together with the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) was successfully applied for correlating the gas-phase compositions and the BHTM. The predicted or simulated bottomhole temperatures (BHTANN), defined as output neurons or simulation targets, were statistically compared with measured temperatures (BHTM). The coefficients of the new geothermometers were obtained from an optimized self-adjusting training algorithm applied to approximately 2,080 ANN architectures with 15,000 simulation iterations each one. The self-adjusting training algorithm used the well-known Levenberg-Marquardt model, which was used to calculate: (i) the number of neurons of the hidden layer; (ii) the training factor and the training patterns of the ANN; (iii) the linear correlation coefficient, R; (iv) the synaptic weighting coefficients; and (v) the statistical parameter, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to evaluate the prediction performance between the BHTM and the simulated BHTANN. The prediction performance of the new gas geothermometers together with those predictions inferred from sixteen well-known gas geothermometers (previously developed) was statistically evaluated by using an external database for avoiding a bias problem. Statistical evaluation was performed through the analysis of the lowest RMSE values computed among the predictions of all the gas geothermometers. The new gas geothermometers developed in this work have been successfully used for predicting subsurface temperatures in high-temperature geothermal systems of Mexico (e.g., Los Azufres, Mich., Los Humeros, Pue., and Cerro Prieto, B.C.) as well as in a blind geothermal system (known as Acoculco, Puebla). The last results of the gas geothermometers (inferred from gas-phase compositions of soil-gas bubble emissions) compare well with the temperature measured in two wells of the blind geothermal system of Acoculco, Puebla (México). Details of this new development are outlined in the present research work. Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the funding received from CeMIE-Geo P09 project (SENER-CONACyT).

Keywords: artificial intelligence, gas geochemistry, geochemometrics, geothermal energy

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Authors: Tshilenge Kabongo, John Kabuba

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The distillery wastewater has become major issues in sanitation sectors. One of the solutions to overcome this sewage is to install the Wastewater Treatment Plant. Economic analysis is fundamentally required for its viability. Integrated anaerobic digestion and advanced oxidation (AD-AOP) in the treatment of distillery wastewater (DWW), anaerobic digestion achieved sufficient biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removals of 95% and 75%, respectively, and methane production of 0.292 L/g COD removed at an organic loading rate of 15 kg COD/m3/d. However, a considerable amount of biorecalcitrant compounds still existed in the anaerobically treated effluent, contributing to a residual COD of 4.5 g/L and an intense dark brown color. To remove the biorecalcitrant color and COD, ozonation, which is an AOP, was introduced as a post-treatment method to AD. Ozonation is a highly competitive treatment technique that can be easily applied to remove the biorecalcitrant compounds, including color, and turbidity. In the ozonation process carried out for an hour, more than 80% of the color was removed at an ozone dose of 45 mg O3/L/min (corresponding to 1.8 g O3/g COD). Thus, integrating AD with the AOP can be effective for organic load and color reductions during the treatment of DWW. The deliverable established the best configuration of the AD-AOP system, where DWW is first subjected to AD followed by AOP post-treatment. However, for establishing the feasibility of the industrial application of the integrated system, it is necessary to carry out the economic analysis. This may help the starting point of the wastewater treatment plant construction and its operation and maintenance costs.

Keywords: distillery wastewater, economic analysis, integrated anaerobic digestion, ozonolysis, treatment

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Authors: Claudia Aguilar, Amen Farooq

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Among other cities in the United States, the city of Atlanta is experiencing levels of growth that surpass anything we have witnessed in the last century. With the surge of population influx, the available housing is practically bursting at the seams. Supply is low, and demand is high. In effect, the average one-bedroom apartment runs for 1,800 dollars per month. The city is desperately seeking new opportunities to provide affordable housing at an expeditious rate. This has been made evident by the recent updates to the city’s zoning. With the recent influx in the housing market, young professionals, in particular millennials, are desperately looking for alternatives to stay within the city. To remedy Atlanta’s affordable housing crisis, the city of Atlanta is planning to introduce 40 thousand of new affordable housing units by 2026. To achieve the urgent need for more affordable housing, the architectural response needs to adapt to overcome this goal. A method that has proven successful in modern housing is to practice modular means of development. A method that has been constrained to the dimensions of the max load for an eighteen-wheeler. This approach has diluted the architect’s ability to produce site-specific, informed design and rather contributes to the “cookie cutter” stigma that the method has been labeled with. This thesis explores the design methodology for modular housing by revisiting its constructability and adaptability. This research focuses on a modular housing type that could break away from the constraints of transport and deliver adaptive reconfigurable assemblies. The adaptive assemblies represent an integrated design strategy for assembling the future of affordable dwelling units. The goal is to take advantage of a component-based system and explore a scalable solution to modular housing. This proposal aims specifically to design a kit of parts that are made to be easily transported and assembled but also gives the ability to customize the use of components to benefit all unique conditions. The benefits of this concept could include decreased construction time, cost, on-site labor, and disruption while providing quality housing with affordable and flexible options.

Keywords: adaptive assemblies, modular architecture, adaptability, constructibility, kit of parts

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Authors: Milca F. Coelho, K. Bousson, Kawser Ahmed

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To accurately track an aerospace vehicle in a time-critical situation and in a highly nonlinear environment, is one of the strongest interests within the aerospace community. The tracking is achieved by estimating accurately the state of a moving target, which is composed of a set of variables that can provide a complete status of the system at a given time. One of the main ingredients for a good estimation performance is the use of efficient estimation algorithms. A well-known framework is the Kalman filtering methods, designed for prediction and estimation problems. The success of the Kalman Filter (KF) in engineering applications is mostly due to the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which is based on local linearization. Besides its popularity, the EKF presents several limitations. To address these limitations and as a possible solution to tracking problems, this paper proposes the use of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Although the EnKF is being extensively used in the context of weather forecasting and it is being recognized for producing accurate and computationally effective estimation on systems with a very high dimension, it is almost unknown by the tracking community. The EnKF was initially proposed as an attempt to improve the error covariance calculation, which on the classic Kalman Filter is difficult to implement. Also, in the EnKF method the prediction and analysis error covariances have ensemble representations. These ensembles have sizes which limit the number of degrees of freedom, in a way that the filter error covariance calculations are a lot more practical for modest ensemble sizes. In this paper, a realistic simulation of a radar tracking was performed, where the EnKF was applied and compared with the Extended Kalman Filter. The results suggested that the EnKF is a promising tool for tracking applications, offering more advantages in terms of performance.

Keywords: Kalman filter, nonlinear state estimation, optimal tracking, stochastic environment

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Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

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From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics

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Authors: Mohd Ayyub Khan, Nadeem Akhtar

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Due to recent advances in wireless communication technologies and hand-held devices, there is a huge demand for video-based applications such as video surveillance, video conferencing, remote surgery, Digital Video Broadcast (DVB), IPTV, online learning courses, YouTube, WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Interactive Video Games. However, the raw videos posses very high bandwidth which makes the compression a must before its transmission over the wireless channels. The High Efficiency Video Codec (HEVC) (also called H.265) is latest state-of-the-art video coding standard developed by the Joint effort of ITU-T and ISO/IEC teams. HEVC is targeted for high resolution videos such as 4K or 8K resolutions that can fulfil the recent demands for video services. The compression ratio achieved by the HEVC is twice as compared to its predecessor H.264/AVC for same quality level. The compression efficiency is generally increased by removing more correlation between the frames/pixels using complex techniques such as extensive intra and inter prediction techniques. As more correlation is removed, the chances of interdependency among coded bits increases. Thus, bit errors may have large effect on the reconstructed video. Sometimes even single bit error can lead to catastrophic failure of the reconstructed video. In this paper, we study the performance of HEVC bitstream over additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. Moreover, HEVC over Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (QAM) combined with forward error correction (FEC) schemes are also explored over the noisy channel. The video will be encoded using HEVC, and the coded bitstream is channel coded to provide some redundancies. The channel coded bitstream is then modulated using QAM and transmitted over AWGN channel. At the receiver, the symbols are demodulated and channel decoded to obtain the video bitstream. The bitstream is then used to reconstruct the video using HEVC decoder. It is observed that as the signal to noise ratio of channel is decreased the quality of the reconstructed video decreases drastically. Using proper FEC codes, the quality of the video can be restored up to certain extent. Thus, the performance analysis of HEVC presented in this paper may assist in designing the optimized code rate of FEC such that the quality of the reconstructed video is maximized over wireless channels.

Keywords: AWGN, forward error correction, HEVC, video coding, QAM

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Authors: Raghavi C. Janaswamy

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In the healthcare sector, heterogenous data elements such as patients, diagnosis, symptoms, conditions, observation text from physician notes, and prescriptions form the essentials of the Electronic Health Record (EHR). The data in the form of clear text and images are stored or processed in a relational format in most systems. However, the intrinsic structure restrictions and complex joins of relational databases limit the widespread utility. In this regard, the design and development of realistic mapping and deep connections as real-time objects offer unparallel advantages. Herein, a graph neural network-based classification of EHR data has been developed. The patient conditions have been predicted as a node classification task using a graph-based open source EHR data, Synthea Database, stored in Tigergraph. The Synthea DB dataset is leveraged due to its closer representation of the real-time data and being voluminous. The graph model is built from the EHR heterogeneous data using python modules, namely, pyTigerGraph to get nodes and edges from the Tigergraph database, PyTorch to tensorize the nodes and edges, PyTorch-Geometric (PyG) to train the Graph Neural Network (GNN) and adopt the self-supervised learning techniques with the AutoEncoders to generate the node embeddings and eventually perform the node classifications using the node embeddings. The model predicts patient conditions ranging from common to rare situations. The outcome is deemed to open up opportunities for data querying toward better predictions and accuracy.

Keywords: electronic health record, graph neural network, heterogeneous data, prediction

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Authors: Qing Wu, Xuchun Ye, Kirsten Corazzini

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Objective: It is increasingly recognized that patients’ rational and meaningful engagement in healthcare could make important contributions to their health care and safety management. However, recent evidence indicated that patients' actual roles in healthcare didn’t match their desired roles, and many patients reported a less active role than desired, which suggested that patient engagement in healthcare may be influenced by various factors. This study aimed to analyze influencing factors on patient engagement and explore the influence mechanism, which will be expected to contribute to the strategy development of patient engagement in healthcare. Methods: On the basis of analyzing the literature and theory study, the research framework was developed. According to the research framework, a cross-sectional survey was employed using the behavior and willingness of patient engagement in healthcare questionnaire, Chinese version All Aspects of Health Literacy Scale, Facilitation of Patient Involvement Scale and Wake Forest Physician Trust Scale, and other influencing factor related scales. A convenience sample of 580 patients was recruited from 8 general hospitals in Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province. Results: The results of the cross-sectional survey indicated that the mean score for the patient engagement behavior was (4.146 ± 0.496), and the mean score for the willingness was (4.387 ± 0.459). The level of patient engagement behavior was inferior to their willingness to be involved in healthcare (t = 14.928, P ＜ 0.01). The influencing mechanism model of patient engagement in healthcare was constructed by the path analysis. The path analysis revealed that patient attitude toward engagement, patients’ perception of facilitation of patient engagement and health literacy played direct prediction on the patients’ willingness of engagement, and standard estimated values of path coefficient were 0.341, 0.199, 0.291, respectively. Patients’ trust in physician and the willingness of engagement played direct prediction on the patient engagement, and standard estimated values of path coefficient were 0.211, 0.641, respectively. Patient attitude toward engagement, patients’ perception of facilitation and health literacy played indirect prediction on patient engagement, and standard estimated values of path coefficient were 0.219, 0.128, 0.187, respectively. Conclusions: Patients engagement behavior did not match their willingness to be involved in healthcare. The influencing mechanism model of patient engagement in healthcare was constructed. Patient attitude toward engagement, patients’ perception of facilitation of engagement and health literacy posed indirect positive influence on patient engagement through the patients’ willingness of engagement. Patients’ trust in physician and the willingness of engagement had direct positive influence on the patient engagement. Patient attitude toward engagement, patients’ perception of physician facilitation of engagement and health literacy were the factors influencing the patients’ willingness of engagement. The results of this study provided valuable evidence on guiding the development of strategies for promoting patient rational and meaningful engagement in healthcare.

Keywords: healthcare, patient engagement, influencing factor, the mechanism

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Authors: Raimi, Kehinde Olawuyi, Omoare Ayodeji Motunrayo

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In the last two decades, there has been rising youth unemployment, restiveness, and social vices in Nigeria. The relevance of Vocational Education for skills acquisition, global learning, and national development to address these problems cannot be underestimated. Thus, the need to economically empower Nigerian youths to be able to develop the nation and meet up in the ever-changing global learning and economy led to the assessment of Vocational Education as Synergy for the Skills Acquisition and Global Learning in Ogun State, Nigeria. One hundred and twenty out of 1,500 students were randomly selected for this study. Data were obtained through a questionnaire and were analyzed with descriptive statistics and Chi-square. The results of the study showed that 59.2% of the respondents were between 20 – 24 years of age, 60.8% were male, and 65.8% had a keen interest in Vocational Education. Also, 90% of the respondents acquired skills in extension/advisory, 78.3% acquired skills in poultry production, and 69.1% acquired skills in fisheries/aquaculture. The major constraints to Vocational Education are inadequate resource personnel (χ² = 10.25, p = 0.02), inadequate training facilities (x̅ = 2.46) and unstable power supply (x̅ = 2.38). Results of Chi-square showed significance association between constraints and Skills Acquisition (χ² = 12.54, p = 0.00) at p < 0.05 level of significance. It was established that Vocational Education significantly contributed to students’ skills acquisition and global learning. This study, therefore, recommends that inadequate personnel should be looked into by the school authority in order not to over-stretch the available staff of the institution while the provision of alternative stable power supply (solar power) is also essential for effective teaching and learning process.

Keywords: vocational education, skills acquisition, national development, global learning

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Authors: Lucile Soudani, Hervé Illy, Rémi Bouchié

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Mould growth in living environments has been widely reported for decades all throughout the world. A higher level of moisture in housings can lead to building degradation, chemical component emissions from construction materials as well as enhancing mould growth within the envelope elements or on the internal surfaces. Moreover, a significant number of studies have highlighted the link between mould presence and the prevalence of respiratory diseases. In recent years, the proportion of biobased materials used in construction has been increasing, as seen as an effective lever to reduce the environmental impact of the building sector. Besides, bio-based materials are also hygroscopic materials: when in contact with the wet air of a surrounding environment, their porous structures enable a better capture of water molecules, thus providing a more suitable background for mould growth. Many studies have been conducted to develop reliable models to be able to predict mould appearance, growth, and decay over many building materials and external exposures. Some of them require information about temperature and/or relative humidity, exposure times, material sensitivities, etc. Nevertheless, several studies have highlighted a large disparity between predictions and actual mould growth in experimental settings as well as in occupied buildings. The difficulty of considering the influence of all parameters appears to be the most challenging issue. As many complex phenomena take place simultaneously, a preliminary study has been carried out to evaluate the feasibility to sadopt a reliability approach rather than a deterministic approach. Both epistemic and random uncertainties were identified specifically for the prediction of mould appearance and growth. Several studies published in the literature were selected and analysed, from the agri-food or automotive sectors, as the deployed methodology appeared promising.

Keywords: bio-based materials, mould growth, numerical prediction, reliability approach

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Authors: Julie Ann L. Gadin, Andrearose C. Igano, Carl Joseph S. Ignacio, Christopher C. Bacungan

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Corn production has become an important and pervasive industry in the Visayas for many years. Its role as a substitute commodity to rice heightens demand for health-particular consumers. Unfortunately, the corn industry is confronted with several challenges, such as weak institutions. Considering these issues, the paper examined the factors that influence corn production in the three administrative regions in the Visayas, namely, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas. The data used was retrieved from a variety of publicly available data sources such as the Philippine Statistics Authority, the Department of Agriculture, the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, and the International Disaster Database. Utilizing a dataset from 2002 to 2019, the indicators were tested using three multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Results showed that the land area harvested (p=0.02), and the value of corn production (p=0.00) are statistically significant variables that influence corn production in the Visayas. Given these findings, it is suggested that the policy of forest conversion and sustainable land management should be effective in enabling farmworkers to obtain land to grow corn crops, especially in rural regions. Furthermore, the Biofuels Act of 2006, the Livestock Industry Restructuring and Rationalization Act, and supported policy, Senate Bill No. 225, or an Act Establishing the Philippine Corn Research Institute and Appropriating Funds, should be enforced inclusively in order to improve the demand for the corn-allied industries which may lead to an increase in the value and volume of corn production in the Visayas.

Keywords: corn, industry, production, MLR, Visayas

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Authors: Mahdiye Khorasani, Arjun Vijay, Ali Mashayekh, Christian Trapp

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The performance of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is highly dependent on the pressure and mass flow of media (Hydrogen and air) throughout the cells and the stack. Higher pressure, on the one hand, results in higher output power of the stack but, on the other hand, increases the electrical power demand of the compressor. In this work, a simulation model of a PEMFC system for vehicle and airplane applications is developed. With this new model, the effect of different pressures and air mass flow rates are investigated to discover the optimum operating point in a PEMFC system, and innovative operation strategies are implemented to optimize reactants flow while minimizing electrical power demand of the compressor for optimum performance. Additionally, a fuel cell system test bench is set up, which contains not only all the auxiliary components for conditioning the gases, reactants, and flows but also a dynamic titling table for testing different orientations of the stack to simulate the flight conditions during take-off and landing and off-road-vehicle scenarios. The results of simulation will be tested and validated on the test bench for future works.

Keywords: air mass flow effect, optimization of operation, pressure effect, PEMFC system, PEMFC system simulation

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Authors: Mosabbir Pasha, Ijaj Mahmud Chowdhury, M. A. Afrahim Bhuiyann

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With the increasing population and intensive land use, huge traffic demand is generating worldwide both in developing and developed countries. As a developing country, Bangladesh is also facing the same problem in recent years by producing huge numbers of daily trips. As a matter of fact, extensive traffic demand is increasing day by day. Also, transport system in Dhaka is heterogeneous, reflecting the heterogeneity in the socio-economic and land use patterns. As a matter of fact, trips produced here are for different purposes such as work, business, educational etc. Due to the significant concentration of educational institutions a large share of the trips are generated by educational purpose. And one of the major percentages of educational trips is produced by university going students and most of them are travelled by car, bus, train, taxi, rickshaw etc. The aim of the study was to find out the university students’ perception on public transit ridership. A survey was conducted among 330 students from eight different universities. It was found out that 26% of the trips produced by university going students are travelled by public bus service and only 5% are by train. Percentage of car share is 16% and 12% of the trips are travelled by private taxi. From the study, it has been found that more than 42 percent student’s family resides outside of Dhaka, eventually they prefer bus instead of other options. Again those who chose to walk most of the time, of them, over 40 percent students’ family reside outside of Dhaka and of them over 85 percent students have a tendency to live in a mess. They generally choose a neighboring location to their respective university so that they can reach their destination by walk. On the other hand, those who travel by car 80 percent of their family reside inside Dhaka. The study also revealed that the most important reason that restricts students not to use public transit is poor service. Negative attitudes such as discomfort, uneasiness in using public transit also reduces the usage of public transit. The poor waiting area is another major cause of not using public transit. Insufficient security also plays a significant role in not using public transit. On the contrary, the fare is not a problem for students those who use public transit as a mode of transportation. Students also think stations are not far away from their home or institution and they do not need to wait long for the buses or trains. It was also found accessibility to public transit is moderate.

Keywords: traffic demand, fare, poor service, public transit ridership

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Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, Stochastic, seismic hazard

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Authors: T. Sattarpour, D. Nazarpour

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This paper investigates the effect of simultaneous placement of DGs and smart meters (SMs), on voltage profile improvement in active distribution networks (ADNs). A substantial center of attention has recently been on responsive loads initiated in power system problem studies such as distributed generations (DGs). Existence of responsive loads in active distribution networks (ADNs) would have undeniable effect on sizing and siting of DGs. For this reason, an optimal framework is proposed for sizing and siting of DGs and SMs in ADNs. SMs are taken into consideration for the sake of successful implementing of demand response programs (DRPs) such as direct load control (DLC) with end-side consumers. Looking for voltage profile improvement, the optimization procedure is solved by genetic algorithm (GA) and tested on IEEE 33-bus distribution test system. Different scenarios with variations in the number of DG units, individual or simultaneous placing of DGs and SMs, and adaptive power factor (APF) mode for DGs to support reactive power have been established. The obtained results confirm the significant effect of DRPs and APF mode in determining the optimal size and site of DGs to be connected in ADN resulting to the improvement of voltage profile as well.

Keywords: active distribution network (ADN), distributed generations (DGs), smart meters (SMs), demand response programs (DRPs), adaptive power factor (APF)

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Authors: W. Mughees, M. Alahmad

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Water is the most significant entity that controls local and global development. For the Gulf region, especially Saudi Arabia, with its limited potable water resources, the potential of the fresh water problem is highly considerable. In this research, the study involves the design and analysis of pinch-based water/wastewater networks. Multiple water/wastewater networks were developed using pinch analysis involving direct recycle/material recycle method. Property-integration technique was adopted to carry out direct recycle method. Particularly, a petroleum refinery was considered as a case study. In direct recycle methodology, minimum water discharge and minimum fresh water resource targets were estimated. Re-design (or retrofitting) of water allocation in the networks was undertaken. Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and hardness properties were taken as pollutants. This research was based on single and double contaminant approach for COD and hardness and the amount of fresh water was reduced from 340.0 m3/h to 149.0 m3/h (43.8%), 208.0 m3/h (61.18%) respectively. While regarding double contaminant approach, reduction in fresh water demand was 132.0 m3/h (38.8%). The required analysis was also carried out using mathematical programming technique. Operating software such as LINGO was used for these studies which have verified the graphical method results in a valuable and accurate way. Among the multiple water networks, the one possible water allocation network was developed based on mass exchange.

Keywords: minimization, water pinch, water management, pollution prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 465