Search results for: ultralow refractive index

Authors: Mahmoud Hassan

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Understanding the impact of market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments on renewable energy consumption (REC) is crucial for the design and choice of policy packages. This study aims to empirically investigate the effect of environmental policy stringency index (EPS) and its components on REC in 27 OECD countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, and then use the results to identify what the appropriate environmental policy mix should look like. By relying on the two-step system GMM estimator, we provide evidence that increasing environmental policy stringency as a whole promotes renewable energy consumption in these 27 developed economies. Moreover, policymakers are able, through the market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments, to increase the use of renewable energy. However, not all of these instruments are effective for achieving this goal. The results indicate that R&D subsidies and trading schemes have a positive and significant impact on REC, while taxes, feed-in tariff and emission standards have not a significant effect. Furthermore, R&D subsidies are more effective than trading schemes for stimulating the use of clean energy. These findings proved to be robust across the three alternative panel techniques used.

Keywords: environmental policy stringency, renewable energy consumption, two-step system-GMM estimation, linear dynamic panel data model

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Authors: Aelita Skarzauskiene, Monika Maciuliene

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In this paper, we conduct a systematic survey of urban communities in Lithuania to evaluate their potential to co-create collective intelligence or “civic intelligence” applying Digital Co-creation Index methodology that includes different socio-technological indicators. Civic intelligence is a form of collective intelligence that refers to the group’s capacity to perceive societal problems and to address them effectively. The research focuses on evaluation of diverse organizational designs that increase efficient collective performance. The current scientific project advanced the state of the art by evaluating the basic preconditions in the urban communities through which the collective intelligence is being co-created under the systemic manner. The research subject is the “bottom up” digital enabled urban platforms, initiated by Lithuanian public organizations, civic movements or business entities. The web-based monitoring results obtained by applying a social indices calculation methodology and Pearson correlation analysis provided the information about the potential and limits of the urban communities and what possible changes need to be implemented to overcome the limitations.

Keywords: computer supported collaboration, socio-technological system, collective intelligence, networked society

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Tao Yin, Zeqiang Zhang, Wei Liang, Yanqing Zeng, Yu Zhang

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To accelerate the remanufacturing process of electronic waste products, this study designs a partial disassembly line with the multi-robotic station to effectively dispose of excessive wastes. The multi-robotic partial disassembly line is a technical upgrade to the existing manual disassembly line. Balancing optimization can make the disassembly line smoother and more efficient. For partial disassembly line balancing with the multi-robotic station (PDLBMRS), a mixed-integer programming model (MIPM) considering the robotic efficiency differences is established to minimize cycle time, energy consumption and hazard index and to calculate their optimal global values. Besides, an enhanced NSGA-II algorithm (HNSGA-II) is proposed to optimize PDLBMRS efficiently. Finally, MIPM and HNSGA-II are applied to an actual mixed disassembly case of two types of computers, the comparison of the results solved by GUROBI and HNSGA-II verifies the correctness of the model and excellent performance of the algorithm, and the obtained Pareto solution set provides multiple options for decision-makers.

Keywords: waste disposal, disassembly line balancing, multi-robot station, robotic efficiency difference, HNSGA-II

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Authors: Benmessaoud Hassen

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We propose in this study to address the impact of socio-economic and environmental impact on the physical environment, especially their spatiotemporal dynamics in semi-arid and arid eastern Aurès. Including 11 municipalities, the study area spreads out over a relatively large surface area of about 60.000 ha. The hindsight is quite important and is determined by 03 days of analysis of environmental variation spread over thirty years (between 1987 and 2007). The multi-source data acquired in this context are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS).This allows, among other indices to calculate areas and classes for each thematic layer of the 4 layers previously defined by a method inspired MEDALUS (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use).The database created is composed of four layers of information (population, livestock, farming and land use). His analysis in space and time has been supplemented by a validation of the ground truth. Once the database has corrected it used to develop the comprehensive map with the calculation of the index of socio-economic and environmental (ISCE). The map supports and the resulting information does not consist only of figures on the present situation but could be used to forecast future trends.

Keywords: impact of socio-economic and environmental, spatiotemporal dynamics, semi-arid environments, GIS, Eastern Aurès

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Authors: Mohar Kassim, Hardy Azmir, Rahmat Sholihin Mokhtar

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The purpose of this study is to build portable application software to determine the level of cardiovascular fitness for cadet students of the National Defence University of Malaysia (NDUM). Fitness in the context of this study refers to physical fitness, specifically the cardiovascular endurance level test battery in the form of a 2.4 km run test for UPNM cadet students. This run test will be conducted to measure, test, and evaluate the performance of UPNM cadet students. All the run test results can be recorded electronically inside the portable software and will later be able to show the level of cardiovascular fitness of every cadet student according to age and gender. This software can also calculate the body mass index (BMI). Normative survey method will be used in this study through the analysis of the 2.4 km run test results. The run test scores will be classified in interval and ratio scales. Based on the findings of this study, portable application software will produced. The software will be able to directly assist the Military Training Academy (ALK), Malaysian Armed Forces (ATM), and other relevant agencies in determining the level of cardiovascular fitness among their staff. The test can be done electronically and on portable mode. The next step to be taken is to have this application patented.

Keywords: development, software, application, portable, fitness norms, cardiovascular endurance

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Authors: Benalia Kouini, Aicha Serier

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This work aims to investigate the structure–property relationship in ternary nanocomposites consisting of polypropylene as the matrix, polyamide 66 as the minor phase and treated nanoclay DELLITE 67G as the reinforcement. All PP/PA66/Nanoclay systems with polypropylene grafted maleic anhydride PP-g-MAH as a compatibilizer were prepared via melt compounding and characterized in terms of nanoclay content. Morphological structure was investigated by scanning electron microscopy. The rheological behavior of the nanocomposites was determined by various methods, viz melt flow index (MFI) and parallel plate rheological measurements. The PP/PP-g-MAH/PA66 nanocomposites showed a homogeneous morphology supporting the compatibility improvement between PP, PA66 and nanoclay. SEM results revealed the formation of nanocomposites as the nanoclay was intercalated and exfoliated. In the ternary nanocomposites, the rheological behavior showed that, the complex viscosity is increased with increasing the nanoclay content; however, at low frequencies this increase is governed by the content of nanofiller while at high frequencies it is mainly determined by talc content. A similar trend was also observed for the variations of storage modulus (G′) and loss modulus (G″) with frequency. The results showed that the use of nanoclay considerably affects the melt elasticity.

Keywords: nanocomposites, polypropylene, polyamide66, modified nanoclay, rheology

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Authors: B. R. Madushan, S. B. Navaratne, I. Wickramasinge

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Toddy sediment (TS) was cultured in a PDA medium to determine initial yeast load, and also it was undergone sun, shade, solar, dehumidified cold air (DCA) and hot air oven (at 400, 500 and 60oC) drying with a view to preserve viability of yeast. Thereafter, this study was conducted according to two factor factorial design in order to determine best preservation method. Therein the dried TS from the best drying method was taken and divided into two portions. One portion was mixed with 3: 7 ratio of TS: rice flour and the mixture was divided in to two again. While one portion was kept under in house condition the other was in a refrigerator. Same procedure was followed to the rest portion of TS too but it was at the same ratio of corn flour. All treatments were vacuum packed in triple laminate pouches and the best preservation method was determined in terms of leavening index (LI). The TS obtained from the best preservation method was used to make foods (bread and hopper) and organoleptic properties of it were evaluated against same of ordinary foods using sensory panel with a five point hedonic scale. Results revealed that yeast load or fresh TS was 58×106 CFU/g. The best drying method in preserving viability of yeast was DCA because LI of this treatment (96%) is higher than that of other three treatments. Organoleptic properties of foods prepared from best preservation method are as same as ordinary foods according to Duo trio test.

Keywords: biological leavening agent, coconut toddy, fermentation, yeast

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Bambang Wispriyono, Satria Pratama, Haryoto Kusnoputranto, Faisal Yunus, Meliana Sari

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Introduction/objective: The impact of the development of motor vehicles is increasing the number of pollutants in the air. One of the substances that cause serious health problems is NO2. The health impacts arising from exposure to NO2 include pulmonary function impairment. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of NO2 exposure on the incidence of pulmonary function impairment. Methods: We are using a cross-sectional study design with 110 traffic police who were divided into two groups: exposed (police officers working on the highway) and the unexposed group (police officers working in the office). Election subject convenient sampling carried out in each group to the minimum number of samples met. Results: The results showed that the average NO2 in the exposed group was 18.72 ppb and unexposed group is 4.14 ppb. Pulmonary dysfunction on exposed and unexposed groups showed that FVC (Forced Vital Capacity) value are 88.68 and 90.27. And FEV1 (Forced Expiratory Volume in One) value are 94.9 and 95.16. Some variables like waist circumference, Body Mass Index, Visceral Fat, and Fat has associated with the incidence of Pulmonary Dysfunction (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Health monitoring is needed to decreasing health risk in Policeman.

Keywords: NO2, pulmonary dysfunction, police traffic, Jakarta

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Authors: Abidi Myriam, Ben Amor Rim, Gueddari Moncef

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Understanding ecosystem response to the restoration project is essential to assess its rehabilitation. Indeed, the time elapsed after restoration is a critical indicator to shows the real of the restoration success. In this order, the south lagoon of Tunis, a shallow Mediterranean coastal area, has witnessed several pollutions. To resolve this environmental problem, a large restoration project of the lagoon was undertaken. In this restoration works, the main changes are the decrease of the residence time of the lagoon water and the nutrient concentrations. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the trophic state of lagoon water for evaluating the risk of eutrophication after almost 16 years of its restoration. To attend this objectives water quality monitoring was untaken. In order to identify and to analyze the natural and anthropogenic factor governing the nutrients concentrations of lagoon water geochemical methods and multivariate statistical tools were used. Results show that nutrients have duel sources due to the discharge of municipal wastewater of Megrine City in the south side of the lagoon. The Carlson index shows that the South lagoon of Tunis Lagoon Tunis is eutrophic, and may show limited summer anoxia.

Keywords: geochemistry, nutrients, statistical analysis, the south lagoon of Tunis, trophic state

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Fereydoon Moghadas Nejad, Mohammad Saed

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The bleeding prediction of the asphalt is one of the most complex subjects in the pavement engineering. In this paper, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for modeling the effect of important parameters on bleeding is trained and tested with the experimental results. bleeding index based on the asphalt film thickness differential as target parameter,asphalt content, temperature depth of two centemeter, heavy traffic, dust to effective binder, Marshall strength, passing 3/4 sieves, passing 3/8 sieves,passing 3/16 sieves, passing NO8, passing NO50, passing NO100, passing NO200 as input parameters. Then, we randomly divided empirical data into train and test sections in order to accomplish modeling. We instructed ANFIS network by 72 percent of empirical data. 28 percent of primary data which had been considered for testing the approprativity of the modeling were entered into ANFIS model. Results were compared by two statistical criterions (R2, RMSE) with empirical ones. Considering the results, it is obvious that our proposed modeling by ANFIS is efficient and valid and it can also be promoted to more general states.

Keywords: bleeding, asphalt film thickness differential, Anfis Modeling

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Authors: Y. Seki, A. Ç. Kılıç, M. Atagür, O. Özdemir, İ. Şen, K. Sever, Ö. Seydibeyoğlu, M. Sarikanat, N. Küçükdoğan

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Cheap and abundant waste materials have been investigated as filler materials in thermoplastic polymers instead of wood- based materials because of deforestation. Vine stem, as an agricultural waste, was used as a filler material for a thermoplastic polymer, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in this study. Agricultural waste of vine stem was collected from Manisa region, Turkey. Vine stem at different rations was used to reinforce HDPE. The effect of vine stem loading on tensile strength and Young’s modulus of composites were obtained. It was clearly observed that tensile strength and Young’s modulus of HDPE was increased by vine stem loading. Thermal stabilities of composites were obtained by using thermogravimetric analysis. Water absorption behavior of HDPE was improved by loading vine stem into HDPE. The crystallinity index values of neat HDPE and vine stem loaded HDPE composites were investigated byX-ray diffraction analysis. From this study, it was inferred that vine stem, as an agricultural waste, can be used as a filler material for HDPE.

Keywords: waste filler, high density polyethylene, composite, composite materials

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Authors: Beruk Berhanu Desalegn, Tona Diddana, Alemneh Daba

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Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the magnitude and determinants of overnutrition among school going adolescents from Dale District of Ethiopia. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was done between November and December 2020. A total of 333 school going adolescents aged 10-19 years were participated. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, physical activity level, an estimated individual dietary energy intake; and height and weight data were collected. Body Mass Index for age (BAZ) was computed. Results: The magnitude of over-nutrition was 7.2% (10.8% in urban vs. 3.6% in rural). Lack of adequate playing area (AOR=2.53, 95% CI:1.02, 6.26), being an urban resident (AOR=3.05, 95% CI:1.12, 8.29), having more energy intake than expenditure (AOR=9.47, 95% CI:1.58, 56.80), ever consumed fast foods a month before the survey (AOR=2.60, 95% CI:1.93, 6.83), having moderate physical activity (PA) (AOR =9.28, 95% CI: 6.70, 71.63), low PA (AOR=7.95, 95% CI:1.12, 56.72), and having snack between meals (AOR=3.32, 95% CI:1.15, 9.58) were positively associated with over-nutrition. Conclusion: The magnitude of over-nutrition among school going adolescents was lower compared to previous reports in Ethiopia. Sedentary lifestyles, excess calorie intake, not having adequate playing areas in the schools, and having snacks between meals were statistically predicted determinants for over-nutrition in the study area.

Keywords: adolescent, over-nutrition, school, Ethiopia

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Authors: James Kinsella

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There is currently very little understanding of how the interaction between in- vestors, consumers, the firms (agents) affect a) the transmission of information, and b) the creation and transfer of value and wealth between these two groups. Employing scholarly ideas from multiple research areas (behavioural finance, emotional finance, econo-biology, and game theory) we develop a conceptual the- oretic model (the ‘bow-tie’ model) as a framework for considering this interaction. Our bow-tie model views information transfer, value and wealth creation, and transfer through the lens of “investor-consumer connection facilitated through the communicative medium of the ‘firm’ (agents)”. We confront our bow-tie model with theoretical and practical examples. Next, we utilise consumer and business confidence data alongside index data, to conduct quantitative analy- sis, to support our bow-tie concept, and to introduce the concept of “investor- consumer connection”. We highlight the importance of information persuasiveness, knowledge, and emotional categorization of characteristics in facilitating a communicative relationship between investors, consumers, and the firm (agents), forming academic and practical applications of the conceptual bow-tie model, alongside applications to wider instances, such as those seen within the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: behavioral finance, emotional finance, economy-biology, social mood

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Authors: Cristina Sanchez-Sanchez

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Although there seems to be a growing interest in the study of the citizen’s happiness as an alternative measure of a country’s progress to GDP, happiness as a public concern is still an ambiguous concept, hard to define. Moreover, different notions are used indiscriminately to talk about the same thing. This investigation aims to determine the conceptions of happiness, well-being and quality of life that originate from the indexes that different governments and public institutions around the world have created to study them. Through the Scoping Review method, this study identifies the recent academic research in this field (a total of 267 documents between 2006 and 2016) from some of the most popular social sciences databases around the world, Web of Science, Scopus, JSTOR, Sage, EBSCO, IBSS and Google Scholar, and in Spain, ISOC and Dialnet. These 267 documents referenced 53 different indexes and researches. The Grounded Theory method has been applied to a sample of 13 indexes in order to identify the main categories they use to determine these three concepts. The results show that these are multi-dimensional concepts and similar indicators are used indistinctly to measure happiness, well-being and quality of life.

Keywords: common good, grounded theory, happiness economics, happiness index, quality of life, scoping review, well-being

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Authors: Mohammad Abdallah

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Due to the constant increase in terrorist attacks, the research and engineering communities have given significant attention to building performance under explosions. This paper presents a methodology for studying and simulating the dynamic responses of steel structures during external detonations, particularly for accurately investigating the impact of incrementing charge weight on the members total behavior, resistance and failure. Prediction damage method was introduced to evaluate the damage level of the steel members based on five scenarios of explosions. Johnson–Cook strength and failure model have been used as well as ABAQUS finite element code to simulate the explicit dynamic analysis, and antecedent field tests were used to verify the acceptance and accuracy of the proposed material strength and failure model. Based on the structural response, evaluation criteria such as deflection, vertical displacement, drift index, and damage level; the obtained results show the vulnerability of steel columns and un-braced steel frames which are designed and optimized to carry dead and live load to resist and endure blast loading.

Keywords: steel structure, blast load, terrorist attacks, charge weight, damage level

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Authors: Keith Dominic T. Li

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The soaring prices of residential properties in Hong Kong has become a social problem that even the middle class is having dif?iculties in purchasing homes. In making policies to curb the prices, it is important to determine the factors that contribute to the property in?lation. Many researches attribute this in?lation to macroeconomic factors especially the interest rate. However, it is important to remember that Hong Kong is under a Currency Board system which makes its interest rate exogenously determined. This research aims to show the signi?icance of the money supply on Hong Kong residential property prices in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Using money supply data, macroeconomic fundamentals, and demographic variables from 2000Q1 to 2013Q2, the factors contributed to residential property price in?lation are estimated to calculate the share of each explanatory variable in disparity. It is found that the Hong Kong property market is mainly driven by investment and that the in?lation on Hong Kong residential property prices can explained by the increase in the Hang Seng Index and in the money supply M2.

Keywords: real estate, Hong Kong, property market, monetary economics, monetary policy

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Authors: Chia-Ju Peng, Shih-Jui Chen

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This paper proposes a method to discriminate electroencephalogram (EEG) signals between different concentration states using empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Brain-computer interface (BCI), also called brain-machine interface, is a direct communication pathway between the brain and an external device without the inherent pathway such as the peripheral nervous system or skeletal muscles. Attention level is a common index as a control signal of BCI systems. The EEG signals acquired from people paying attention or in relaxation, respectively, are decomposed into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) by EMD. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) analysis is then applied to each IMF to obtain the frequency spectrums. By observing power spectrums of IMFs, the proposed method has the better identification of EEG attention level than the original EEG signals between different concentration states. The band power of IMF3 is the most obvious especially in β wave, which corresponds to fully awake and generally alert. The signal processing method and results of this experiment paves a new way for BCI robotic system using the attention-level control strategy. The integrated signal processing method reveals appropriate information for discrimination of the attention and relaxation, contributing to a more enhanced BCI performance.

Keywords: biomedical engineering, brain computer interface, electroencephalography, rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Lourena M. Veríssimo, Lucas A. Machado, Renata Rutckeviski, Francisco H. Xavier Júnior, Éverton N. Alencar, Andreza R. V. Morais, Teresa R. F. Dantas, Christian M. Oliveira, Arnóbio A. Silva Júnior, Eryvaldo S. T. Egito

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This study aimed to obtain emulsion systems based on bullfrog oil (BO). The BO was extracted at 80ºC and analyzed by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS). The critical Hydrophilic-Lipophilic Balance (HLBc) Assay of the BO was performed through BO, Tween® 20, Span® 80 and deionized water mixtures using an Ultra-Turrax® and determined using dynamic light scattering, pH, electrical conductivity and creaming rate. Then, a pseudoternary phase diagram (PPD) was constructed by water titration. The GC/MS analysis of BO suggested Methyl Oleate (9.26%) as major compound. The HLBc was 12.1, wherein the correspondent emulsion showed a pH of 4.83±1.29, electrical conductivity of 103.65 µS, creaming rate of 2.51±0.54%, droplet size of 207.07±8.31 nm and polydispersity index of 0.212±0.005. The PPD showed different formulations characterized as O/W emulsions. Thus, the PPD proved to be a useful tool to produce BO emulsions, in which their constituents may vary within the range of the desired system.

Keywords: bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana Shaw) oil, emulsion production, hydrophilic-lipophilic balance, gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis

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Authors: Zhang Hui, Wu Caiqiu, Yuan Xuyin, Qiu Jie, Zhang Hanpei

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The heavy metal contaminations were determined with a detailed soil survey in roadside soils along Shenyang-Dalian Highway of Liaoning Province (China) and Pb, Cu, Cd, Ni and Zn were analyzed using the atomic absorption spectrophotometric method. The average concentration of Pb, Cu, Cd, Ni and Zn in roadside soils was determined to be 43.8, 26.5, 0.119, 32.1, 71.3 mg/kg respectively, and all of the heavy metal contents were higher than the background values. Different heavy metal distribution regularity was found in different land use type of roadside soil, there was an obvious peak of heavy concentration at 25m from road edge in the farmland, while in the forest and orchard soil, all heavy metals gradually decreased with the increase of distance from road edge and conformed to the exponential model. Furthermore, the heavy metal contents of heavy metals except Cd were markedly increased compared with those in 1999 and 2007, and the heavy metals concentrations of Shenyang- Dalian Highway were considered medium or low in comparison with those in other cities around the world. The assessment of heavy metal contamination of roadside soils illustrated a common low pollution for all heavy metal and recommended that more attention should be paid to Pb contamination in roadside soils in Shenyang-Dalian Highway.

Keywords: heavy metal contamination, roadside, highway, Nemerow Pollution Index

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Authors: Humayun Kabir, Amirul Hasan, Yu Miyaoka, Makiko Yamaguchi, Chisaki Kadota, Kazuaki Takehara

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From field isolates of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) in Japan, one avirulent strain, APMV/northern pintail/Japan/Aomori/2003 (dk-Aomori/03, NDV 261), was selected for its excellent thermostability, and the strain was heat-treated at 56℃ temperatures for 30 min with each passage into Vero cells to maintain thermostability and to adapt Vero cells. After serial 20 passages in Vero cells, it was named NDV Vero20. When growth curves were tested in Vero cells, NDV Vero20 grew well to compare the original NDV261. The HN gene was sequenced, and found motifs that show thermostability. The intracerebral pathogenicity index (ICPI) test score was 0. The thermostability of the virus was confirmed by storing it at different temperatures, including at 37°C. When susceptible chicks were inoculated with NDV Vero20 through eye drops, induced adequate levels of antibody were measured using a serum neutralization test. The results showed that NDV Vero20, a vaccine candidate strain is thermostable, Vero cell adapted, and has immunogenic potential, which would make as an alternative to the traditional embryonated chicken eggs-based vaccine.

Keywords: Newcastle disease virus, thermostability, vaccine, Vero cell adaptability

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Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq, Hammad Tahir, Fawwad Mahmood Butt

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Purpose: This study attempts to examine the best forecasting methodologies in the time series. The time series forecasting models such as VAR, ARCH and the ARMA are considered for the analysis. Methodology: The Bench Marks or the parameters such as Adjusted R square, F-stats, Durban Watson, and Direction of the roots have been critically and empirically analyzed. The empirical analysis consists of time series data of Consumer Price Index and Closing Stock Price. Findings: The results show that the VAR model performed better in comparison to other models. Both the reliability and significance of VAR model is highly appreciable. In contrary to it, the ARCH model showed very poor results for forecasting. However, the results of ARMA model appeared double standards i.e. the AR roots showed that model is stationary and that of MA roots showed that the model is invertible. Therefore, the forecasting would remain doubtful if it made on the bases of ARMA model. It has been concluded that VAR model provides best forecasting results. Practical Implications: This paper provides empirical evidences for the application of time series forecasting model. This paper therefore provides the base for the application of best time series forecasting model.

Keywords: forecasting, time series, auto regression, ARCH, ARMA

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Authors: Amin Nakhostin-Ansari, Samaneh Akbarour, Khosro Sadeghniiat Haghighi, Zahra Banafsheh Alemohammad, Farnaz Etesam, Arezu Najafi, Mahnaz Khalafehnilsaz

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Introduction: The outbreak of coronavirus disease has considerably burdened the healthcare system in Iran. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of insomnia experienced by the general Iranian population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: A scale(FCV-19) was used for Fear of COVID-19, Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2), and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale-2 (GAD-2) for detailed characterization of insomnia and its patterns Results: In total, 675 people with insomnia with the mean age of 40.28 years (SD=11.15) participated in this study. Prevalence of difficulty initiating sleep (DIS), difficulty maintaining sleep (DMS), and early morning awakening (EMA) were 91.4%, 86.7%, and 77%, respectively. DIS, DMS, and EMA were more common in people with depression and anxiety. FCV-19 score was higher in those with more severe types of DIS, DMS, and EMA (P<0.001). FCV-19 was a risk factor for all patterns of insomnia (OR=1.19, 1.12, 1.02 for DIS, DMS, and EMA, respectively). Conclusion: fear of COVID-19 is a major factor to insomnia patterns. Investigation of COVID-19 fear in people with insomnia and the addition of attributed relieving or management strategies to conventional management of insomnia are reasonable approaches to improve the sleep condition of people in the pandemic.

Keywords: insomnia, difficulty maintaining sleep, COVID-19, Coronavirus

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Alessandra Marcelletti, Giovanni Trovato

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Corruption in public offices is found to be the reflection of country-specific features, however, the exact magnitude and the statistical significance of its determinants effect has not yet been identified. The paper aims to propose an estimation method to measure the impact of country fundamentals on corruption, showing that covariates could differently affect the extent of corruption across countries. Thus, we exploit a model able to take into account different factors affecting the incentive to ask or to be asked for a bribe, coherently with the use of the Corruption Perception Index. We assume that discordant results achieved in literature may be explained by omitted hidden factors affecting the agents' decision process. Moreover, assuming homogeneous covariates effect may lead to unreliable conclusions since the country-specific environment is not accounted for. We apply a Finite Mixture Model with concomitant variables to 129 countries from 1995 to 2006, accounting for the impact of the initial conditions in the socio-economic structure on the corruption patterns. Our findings confirm the hypothesis of the decision process of accepting or asking for a bribe varies with specific country fundamental features.

Keywords: Corruption, Finite Mixture Models, Concomitant Variables, Countries Classification

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Authors: Rihab Belguith, Fathi Abid

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The paper develops a system-based approach to investigate the dynamic adjustment of debt structure and investment policies of the Dow-Jones index. This approach enables the assessment of relations among sales, debt, and investment opportunities by considering the simultaneous effect of the market environmental change and future growth opportunities. We integrate the firm-specific sales variance to capture the industries' conditions in the model. Empirical results were obtained through a panel data set of firms with different sectors. The analysis support that environmental change does not affect equally the different industry since operating leverage differs among industries and so the sensitivity to sales variance. Including adjusted-specific variance, we find that there is no monotonic relation between leverage, sales, and investment. The firm may choose a low debt level in response to high sales variance but high leverage to attenuate the negative relation between sales variance and the current level of investment. We further find that while the overall effect of debt maturity on leverage is unaffected by the level of growth opportunities, the shorter the maturity of debt is, the smaller the direct effect of sales variance on investment.

Keywords: dynamic panel, investment, leverage decision, sales uncertainty

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, random dither, quantization

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Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, W. Atherton, F. Ruddock, E. Loffill

Abstract:

This study represents the results of an experimental work using two types of fly ashes as a cement replacement in soft soil stabilisation. The fly ashes (FA1 and FA2) used in this study are by-products resulting from an incineration processes between 800 and 1200 ˚C. The stabilised soil in this study was an intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic matter content. The experimental works were initially conducted on soil treated with different percentages of FA1 (0, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15%) to identify the optimum FA1 content. Then FA1 was chemically activated by FA2 which has high alkalinity by blending the optimum content of FA1 with different portions of FA2. The improvement levels were evaluated dependent on the results obtained from consistency limits and compaction tests along with the results of unconfined compressive strength (UCS) tests which were conducted on specimens of soil treated with FA1 and FA2 and exposed to different periods of curing (zero, 7, 14, and 28 days). The results indicated that the FA1 and FA2 used in this study effectively improved the physical and geotechnical properties of the soft soil where the index of plasticity (IP) was decreased significantly from 21 to 13.17 with 12% of FA1; however, there was a slight increase in IP with the use of FA2. Meanwhile, 12% of FA1 was identified as the optimum percentage improving the UCS of stabilised soil significantly. Furthermore, FA2 was found effective as a chemical activator to FA1 where the UCS was improved significantly after using FA2.

Keywords: fly ashes, soft soil stabilisation, waste materials, unconfined compressive strength

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Authors: Esther Liyanage, Indrajith Liyanage, Masih Khan

Abstract:

Neck pain has become a common epidemiological problem. One of the reasons for this is a sedentary way of life, connected with using a personal computer during all daily activities. Work place and work duration has not been properly adapted to the personal physical conditions of these employees. During 1990’s the importance of workstation design and work methods, or ergonomics on health was brought to the forefront of public attention. Ergonomics is the application of scientific information concerning humans to the design of objects. Ergonomic intervention results in improvement of working posture and a decrease in prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. Stretching and resistance exercises to the neck are easy to do, when performed 1-2 times daily reduce discomfort and ease neck stiffness. This study is aimed at finding if ergonomics with exercises to the neck prove beneficial to reduce neck pain in Computer Professionals. The outcomes measures used were: Oswestry neck disability index and VAS score for pain. 100 subjects satisfying the inclusion criteria were included in the study. Results: Ergonomic intervention along with isometric neck exercises and stretching proved to reduce neck pain and disability among computer professionals.

Keywords: ergonomics, neck pain, neck exercises, physiotherapy for neck pain

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Authors: G. Suja, J. Sreekumar, A. N. Jyothi, V. S. Santhosh Mithra

Abstract:

Worldwide concerns regarding food safety, environmental degradation and threats to human health have generated interest in alternative systems like organic farming. Tropical tuber crops, cassava, sweet potato, yams, and aroids are food-cum-nutritional security-cum climate resilient crops. These form stable or subsidiary food for about 500 million global population. Cassava, yams (white yam, greater yam, and lesser yam) and edible aroids (elephant foot yam, taro, and tannia) are high energy tuberous vegetables with good taste and nutritive value. Seven on-station field experiments at ICAR-Central Tuber Crops Research Institute, Thiruvananthapuram, India and seventeen on-farm trials in three districts of Kerala, were conducted over a decade (2004-2015) to compare the varietal response, yield, quality and soil properties under organic vs conventional system in these crops and to develop a learning system based on the data generated. The industrial, as well as domestic varieties of cassava, the elite and local varieties of elephant foot yam and taro and the three species of Dioscorea (yams), were on a par under both systems. Organic management promoted yield by 8%, 20%, 9%, 11% and 7% over conventional practice in cassava, elephant foot yam, white yam, greater yam and lesser yam respectively. Elephant foot yam was the most responsive to organic management followed by yams and cassava. In taro, slight yield reduction (5%) was noticed under organic farming with almost similar tuber quality. The tuber quality was improved with higher dry matter, starch, crude protein, K, Ca and Mg contents. The anti-nutritional factors, oxalate content in elephant foot yam and cyanogenic glucoside content in cassava were lowered by 21 and 12.4% respectively. Organic plots had significantly higher water holding capacity, pH, available K, Fe, Mn and Cu, higher soil organic matter, available N, P, exchangeable Ca and Mg, dehydrogenase enzyme activity and microbial count. Organic farming scored significantly higher soil quality index (1.93) than conventional practice (1.46). The soil quality index was driven by water holding capacity, pH and available Zn followed by soil organic matter. Organic management enhanced net profit by 20-40% over chemical farming. A case in point is the cost-benefit analysis in elephant foot yam which indicated that the net profit was 28% higher and additional income of Rs. 47,716 ha-1 was obtained due to organic farming. Cost-effective technologies were field validated. The on-station technologies developed were validated and popularized through on-farm trials in 10 sites (5 ha) under National Horticulture Mission funded programme in elephant foot yam and seven sites in yams and taro. The technologies are included in the Package of Practices Recommendations for crops of Kerala Agricultural University. A learning system developed using artificial neural networks (ANN) predicted the performance of elephant foot yam organic system. Use of organically produced seed materials, seed treatment in cow-dung, neem cake, bio-inoculant slurry, farmyard manure incubated with bio-inoculants, green manuring, use of neem cake, bio-fertilizers and ash formed the strategies for organic production. Organic farming is an eco-friendly management strategy that enables 10-20% higher yield, quality tubers and maintenance of soil health in tuber crops.

Keywords: eco-agriculture, quality, root crops, healthy soil, yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 335