Search results for: the risk index

Authors: Guoyu Lin

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This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.

Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns

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Authors: Go Iwashita

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The paper describes how the frequencies of heatstroke occurring in indoor built environment are related to the outdoor thermal environment with big statistical data. As the statistical accident data of heatstroke, the nationwide accident data were obtained from the National Agency for the Advancement of Sports and Health (NAASH) . The meteorological database of the Japanese Meteorological Agency supplied data about 1-hour average temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and so forth. Each heatstroke data point from the NAASH database was linked to the meteorological data point acquired from the nearest meteorological station where the accident of heatstroke occurred. This analysis was performed for a 10-year period (2005–2014). During the 10-year period, 3,819 cases of heatstroke were reported in the NAASH database for the investigated secondary/high schools of the nine Japanese representative cities. Heatstroke most commonly occurred in the outdoor schoolyard at a wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 31°C and in the indoor gymnasium during athletic club activities at a WBGT > 31°C. The determined accident ratio (number of accidents during each club activity divided by the club’s population) in the gymnasium during the female badminton club activities was the highest. Although badminton is played in a gymnasium, these WBGT results show that the risk level during badminton under hot and humid conditions is equal to that of baseball or rugby played in the schoolyard. Except sports, the high risk of heatstroke was observed in schools houses during cultural activities. The risk level for indoor environment under hot and humid condition would be equal to that for outdoor environment based on the above results of WBGT. Therefore control measures against hot and humid indoor condition were needed as installing air conditions not only schools but also residences.

Keywords: accidents in schools, club activity, gymnasium, heatstroke

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Authors: Mirim Kim, Won-Oak Oh

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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify hospitalized children's fall risk factors, fall prevention status and fall prevention strategies recognized by nurses and caregivers of hospitalized children and present an ecological model for fall preventive management in hospitalized children. Method: The participants of this study were 14 nurses working in medical institutions and having more than one year of child care experience and 14 adult caregivers of children under 6 years of age receiving inpatient treatment at a medical institution. One to one interview was attempted to identify their perception of fall preventive management. Transcribed data were analyzed through latent content analysis method. Results: Fall risk factors in hospitalized children were 'unpredictable behavior', 'instability', 'lack of awareness about danger', 'lack of awareness about falls', 'lack of child control ability', 'lack of awareness about the importance of fall prevention', 'lack of sensitivity to children', 'untidy environment around children', 'lack of personalized facilities for children', 'unsafe facility', 'lack of partnership between healthcare provider and caregiver', 'lack of human resources', 'inadequate fall prevention policy', 'lack of promotion about fall prevention', 'a performanceism oriented culture'. Fall preventive management status of hospitalized children were 'absence of fall prevention capability', 'efforts not to fall', 'blocking fall risk situation', 'limit the scope of children's activity when there is no caregiver', 'encourage caregivers' fall prevention activities', 'creating a safe environment surrounding hospitalized children', 'special management for fall high risk children', 'mutual cooperation between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'implementation of fall prevention policy', 'providing guide signs about fall risk'. Fall preventive management strategies of hospitalized children were 'restrain dangerous behavior', 'inspiring awareness about fall', 'providing fall preventive education considering the child's eye level', 'efforts to become an active subject of fall prevention activities', 'providing customed fall prevention education', 'open communication between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'infrastructure and personnel management to create safe hospital environment', 'expansion fall prevention campaign', 'development and application of a valid fall assessment instrument', 'conversion of awareness about safety'. Conclusion: In this study, the ecological model of fall preventive management for hospitalized children reflects various factors that directly or indirectly affect the fall prevention of hospitalized children. Therefore, these results can be considered as useful baseline data for developing systematic fall prevention programs and hospital policies to prevent fall accident in hospitalized children. Funding: This study was funded by the National Research Foundation of South Korea (grant number NRF-2016R1A2B1015455).

Keywords: fall down, safety culture, hospitalized children, risk factors

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Authors: R. Praveen, B. R. Chandan Ravi, M. Harikrishna

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Squeak and rattle noises are the most annoying transient vehicle noises produced due to different terrain conditions. Interpretation and prohibition of squeak and rattle noises are the dominant aspects of a vehicle refinement. This paper describes the computer-aided engineering (CAE) approach to evaluating the full vehicle squeak and rattle performance with the measured road surface profile as enforced excitation at the tire patch points. The E-Line methodology has been used to predict the relative displacement at the interface points and the risk areas were identified. Squeak and rattle performance has been evaluated at different speeds and at different road conditions to understand the vehicle characteristics. The competence of the process in predicting the risk and root cause of the problems showcased us a pleasing conformity between the physical testing and CAE simulation results.

Keywords: e-line, enforced excitation, full vehicle, squeak and rattle, road excitation

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Authors: Jesha Faye T. Librea, Leslie Joy L. Diaz

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Fuel-derived rice husk ash (fRHA) is a waste material from industries employing rice husk as a biomass fuel which, on the downside, causes disposal and environmental problems. To mitigate this, the fRHA was evaluated for use in other applications such as a pozzolanic material for the construction industry. In this study, the assessment of the potential of fRHA as pozzolanic supplementary cementitious material was conducted by determining the chemical and physical properties of fRHA according to ASTM C618, evaluating the fineness of the material according to ASTM C430, and determining its pozzolanic activity using Luxan Method. The material was found to have a high amorphous silica content of around 95.82 % with traces of alkaline and carbon impurities. The retained carbon residue is 7.18 %, which is within the limit of the specifications for natural pozzolans indicated in ASTM C618. The fineness of the fRHA is at 88.88 % retained at a 45-micron sieve, which, however, exceeded the limit of 34 %. This large particle size distribution was found to affect the pozzolanic activity of the fRHA. This was shown in the Luxan test, where the fRHA was identified as non-pozzolan due to its low pozzolanic activity index of 0.262. Thus, further processing must be done to the fRHA to pass the required ASTM fineness, have a higher pozzolanic activity index, and fully qualify as a pozzolanic material.

Keywords: rice husk ash, pozzolanic, fuel-derived ash, supplementary cementitious material

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Authors: Monsuru Oyenola Popoola, Oladapo Samson Abiola, Wusamotu Alao Adeniji

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The prevalent and incessant abandonment of road construction projects are alarming that it creates several negative effects to social, economic and environmental values of the project. The purpose of this paper is to investigate and determined the various causes and effects of abandoning road construction projects in Nigeria. Likert Scale questionnaire design was used to administered and analysed the data obtained for the stydy. 135 (Nr) questionnaires were completed and retrieved from the respondents, out of 200 (Nr) questionnaires sent out, representing a response rate of 67.5%. The analysis utilized the Relative Importance Index (R.I.I.) method and the results are presented in tabular form. The findings confirms that at least 20 factors were the causes of road projects abandonment in Nigeria with most including Leadership Instability, Improper Project Planning, Inconsistence in government policies and Design, Contractor Incompetence, Economy Instability and Inflation, Delay in remittance of money, Improper financial analysis, Poor risk management, Climatic Conditions, Improper Project Estimates etc. The findings also show that at least eight (8) effect were identified on the system, and these include; Waste of Financial Resources, Loss of economic value, Environmental degradation, Loss of economic value, Reduction in standard of living, Litigation and Arbitration, etc. The reflection is that allocating reasonable finance, developing appropriate and effective implementation plans and monitoring, evaluation and reporting on development project activities by key actors should enhance in resolving the problem of road projects abandonment.

Keywords: road construction, abandonment of road projects, climatic condition, project planning, contractor

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Authors: Loubna Safar, Lama Youssef, Majd Aljamali

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Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is one of the leading causes of blindness worldwide. Complement factor H polymorphism (Y402H) is thought to play a potential role in the predisposition to AMD and response of patients with exudative AMD to treatment with anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (anti-VEGF). This study aimed to investigate the frequency of Y402H among Syrians, its impact on their susceptibility to AMD, and the hypothesized role of Y402H in patients' response to intravitreal anti-VEGF (i.e.,, bevacizumab). Our case-control study encompassed unrelated 54 AMD cases and 44 controls. Genotyping was determined by standard sequencing of PCR products. Frequency was compared between patients and controls, and correlation between genotype and response to treatment was assessed in 20 patients with wet AMD who received a therapeutic course of three intravitreal bevacizumab injections (once monthly). Our results revealed a significantly higher prevalence of the risk allele C among AMD cases (51.9%) in comparison with controls (37.5%) (P= 0.04, OR= 1.386, CI= 0.999- 1.923). Patients with the TT genotype (no risk allele) exhibited a significantly better primary response rate, reached 87.5% compared to only 41.7% in patients carrying the risk allele C (TC + CC), (P= 0.04, OR= 9.8, CI=0.899- 106.84). The findings of this study prove the importance of investigating Y402H polymorphism as a prognostic marker for predicting response to bevacizumab in AMD patients.

Keywords: age-related macular degeneration, bevacizumab, complement factor H gene, polymorphism, Y402H

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Authors: Jonathan Doku

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The study's goal was to evaluate construction site safety management in Ghana. The construction sector has long been seen as a high-risk business. It entails a variety of hazardous and challenging labor duties, such as lifting and working at a height, among others. The accident rate is a standard indicator for comparing the safety performance of construction projects. Because of its high-risk and fast-changing work environment, the construction business is regarded as one of the industries with the highest accident rates in the world. Many mishaps and work-related diseases have occurred there, and construction workers are particularly vulnerable to catastrophic calamities such as falls, collapses, and burial. The study's main goals were to discover characteristics that have a substantial impact on construction site safety, to evaluate the safety management methods utilized on construction sites, and to assess the obstacles associated with construction site safety management. The study was conducted using a quantitative research method and a purposive sampling strategy. Google forms were used to distribute self-administered surveys to 85 responders. 72 of the 85 questionnaires were completed and submitted for analysis, accounting for 84.7 percent of the total. The variables were analyzed using descriptive statistics, mean score ranking, and Cronbach's Alpha Coefficient to ensure the scale's reliability. The formal safety organization structure and the Safety checklist were identified as the key practices of safety management on site as part of the study goals. In addition, it was discovered that the most serious problem with safety management is ineffective supervision. To guarantee efficient monitoring and proper implementation of health and safety rules on building sites, management must be on the ball.

Keywords: construction, safety, risk, management

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Authors: Shadia Al-Bahlani, Ruqaya Al-Rashdi, Shadia Al-Sinawi, Maya Al-Bahri

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Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive type of breast cancer, which is defined by the absence of Estrogen (ER), Progesterone (PR) and Human epidermal growth factor (Her-2) receptors. The calpain system plays an important role in many cellular processes including apoptosis, necrosis, cell signaling and proliferation. The role of clapins in pathogenesis and tumor progression has been studied in certain cancer types; however, its definite role is not yet established in breast cancer especially in the TNBC subtype. Objectives: This study aims to measure calpain-1 expression and correlate this measurement with the proliferating/apoptotic index as well with the prognostic factors in TNBC patients’ tissue. Materials and Methods: Thirty nine paraffin blocks from patients diagnosed with TNBC were used to measure the expression of calpain-1 and Ki-67 (proliferating marker) proteins using immunohistochemistry. Apoptosis was assessed morphological and biochemically using conventional Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining method and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediate dUTP nick and labeling (TUNEL) assay respectively. Data was statistically analyzed using Pearson X2 test of association. Results: Calpain-1 content was visualized in the nucleus of the TNBC cells and its expression varied from low to high among the patients tissue. Calpain expression showed no significant correlation with the proliferating/apoptotic index as well with the clinicopathological variables. Apoptotic counts quantified by H&E staining showed significant association with the apoptotic TUNEL assay, validating both approaches. Conclusion: Although calpain-1 expression showed no significant association with the clinical outcome, its variable level of expression might indicate a hidden role in breast cancer tissue. Larger number of samples and different mode of assessments are needed to fully investigate such role. Exploring the involvement of calpain-1 in cancer progression might help in considering it as a biomarker of breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, calpain, apoptosis, prognosis

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Authors: Atiq Uz Zaman

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Sustainable waste management is one of the major global challenges that we face today. A poor waste management system not only symbolises the inefficiency of our society but also depletes valuable resources and emits pollutions to the environment. Presently, we extract more natural resources than ever before in order to meet the demand for constantly growing resource consumption. It is estimated that around 71 tonnes of ‘upstream’ materials are used for every tonne of MSW. Therefore, resource recovery from waste potentially offsets a significant amount of upstream resource being depleted. This study tries to measure the environmental benefits of global waste management systems by applying a tool called the Zero Waste Index (ZWI). The ZWI measures the waste management performance by accounting for the potential amount of virgin material that can be offset by recovering resources from waste. In addition, the ZWI tool also considers the energy, GHG and water savings by offsetting virgin materials and recovering energy from waste. This study analyses the municipal solid waste management system of 172 countries from all over the globe and the population covers in the study is 3.37 billion. This study indicates that we generated around 1.47 billion tonnes (436kg/cap/year) of municipal solid waste each year and the waste generation is increasing over time. This study also finds a strong and positive correlation (R2=0.29, p = < .001) between income (GDP/capita/year) and amount of waste generated (kg/capita/year). About 84% of the waste is collected globally and only 15% of the collected waste is recycled. The ZWI of the world is measured in this study of 0.12, which means that the current waste management system potentially offsets only 12% of the total virgin material substitution potential from waste. Annually, an average person saved around 219kWh of energy, emitted around 48kg of GHG and saved around 38l of water. Findings of this study are very important to measure the current waste management performance in a global context. In addition, the study also analysed countries waste management performance based on their income level.

Keywords: global performance, material substitution; municipal waste, resource recovery, waste management, zero waste index

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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Intelligent wearables (illuminated vests or hand and foot-bands, smart watches with a laser diode, Bluetooth smart glasses) overflow the market today. They are integrated with complex electronics and are worn very close to the body. Optical measurements and limitation of the maximum light density are needed. Smart watches are equipped with a laser diode or control different body currents. Special glasses generate readable text information that is received via radio transmission. Small high-performance batteries (lithium-ion/polymer) supply the electronics. All these products have been tested and evaluated for risk. These products must, for example, meet the requirements for electromagnetic compatibility as well as the requirements for electromagnetic fields affecting humans or implant wearers. Extensive analyses and measurements were carried out for this purpose. Many users are not aware of these risks. The result of this study should serve as a suggestion to do it better in the future or simply to point out these risks. Commercial LED warning vests, LED hand and foot-bands, illuminated surfaces with inverter (high voltage), flashlights, smart watches, and Bluetooth smart glasses were checked for risks. The luminance, the electromagnetic emissions in the low-frequency as well as in the high-frequency range, audible noises, and nervous flashing frequencies were checked by measurements and analyzed. Rechargeable lithium-ion or lithium-polymer batteries can burn or explode under special conditions like overheating, overcharging, deep discharge or using out of the temperature specification. Some risk analysis becomes necessary. The result of this study is that many smart wearables are worn very close to the body, and an extensive risk analysis becomes necessary. Wearers of active implants like a pacemaker or implantable cardiac defibrillator must be considered. If the wearable electronics include switching regulators or inverter circuits, active medical implants in the near field can be disturbed. A risk analysis is necessary.

Keywords: safety and hazards, electrical safety, EMC, EMF, active medical implants, optical radiation, illuminated warning vest, electric luminescent, hand and head lamps, LED, e-light, safety batteries, light density, optical glare effects

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, risk models, uncertainty, unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: Ferruh Taspinar, Gulce K. Seyyar, Gamze Kurt, Eda O. Okur, Emrah Afsar, Ismail Saracoglu, Betul Taspinar

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Overweight and obesity has been associated with postural balance. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between body composition and balance. One hundred and thirty two young adults (58 male, 74 female) were included in the study. Mean age of participants were found as 21.21±1.51 years. Body composition (body mass index, total body fat ratio, total body muscle ratio) and balance (right anterior, right postero-medial, right postero-lateral, left anterior, left postero-medial, left postero-lateral) were evaluated by Tanita BC-418 and Y balance test, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between the parameters. Significance level in statistical analysis was accepted as 0.05. According to results, no correlation was found between body mass index and balance parameters. There was negative correlation between total body fat ratio and balance parameters (r=0.419-0.509, p˂0.05). On the other hand, positive correlation was found between total body muscle ratio and balance parameters (r=0.390-0.494, p˂0.05). This study demonstrated that body fat and muscle ratio affects the balance. Body composition should be considered in rehabilitation programs including postural balance training.

Keywords: balance, body composition, body mass, young adults

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Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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Authors: Banaeifar Abdolali, Rahmanimoghadam Neda, Sohyli Shahram

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Obesity is an increase in body fat , in addition it has been introduced as a risk factor for the progress of lipid disorders, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (1,2). In recent years, Adipose tissue is now recognized as an endocrine organ that secretes many cytokines such as: interleukin 6, leptin, and visfatin (3). Visfatin is an adipocytokine that release from adiposities. It is unidentified whether training also influences concentrations of visfatin. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of 12 weeks of aerobic training on visfatin levels and lipid profile in obese women. Method: Thirty two obese women (age = 37.8 ± 13.2 years, body mass index = of 39.4 ± 6.4 kg/m2 .) volunteered to participate in a 12-wk exercise program. They were randomly assigned to either a training (n = 16) or control (n = 14) group. The training group exercised for 70 minutes per session, 3 days per week during the 12 week training program. The control group was asked to maintain their normal daily activities. Samples were obtained before and at the end of training program. We use t.paire and independent,test for data analyzes. Results: Exercise training resulted in a decrease in body weight (p < 0.05), percent body fat (% fat) and BMI (p < 0.05), fasting glucose level and visfatin concentration decreased but wasn’t significant (p > 0.05). Also the levels of triglyceride, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not change significantly. Conclution: In conclusion, three month aerobic training program used in this study was very effective for producing significant benefits to body composition and HDL.c but didn’t significant chenging visfatin levels and lipid profile in these obese women.

Keywords: aerobic training, visfatin, lipid profile, women

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Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García

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Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.

Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol

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Authors: Anele Horn, Amanda Van Eeden

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The emphasis on the challenges posed by continued urbanisation, especially in developing countries has resulted in urban sprawl often researched and analysed in metropolitan urban areas, but rarely in small and medium towns. Consequently, there exists no comparative instrument between the proportional extent of urban sprawl in metropolitan areas measured against that of small and medium towns. This research proposes an Urban Sprawl Index as a possible tool to comparatively analyse the extent of urban sprawl between cities and towns of different sizes. The index can also be used over the longer term by authorities developing spatial policy to track the success or failure of specific tools intended to curb urban sprawl. In South Africa, as elsewhere in the world, the last two decades witnessed a proliferation of legislation and spatial policies to limit urban sprawl and contain the physical expansion and development of urban areas, but the measurement of the successes or failures of these instruments intending to curb expansive land development has remained a largely unattainable goal, largely as a result of the absence of an appropriate measure of proportionate comparison. As a result of the spatial political history of Apartheid, urban areas acquired a spatial form that contributed to the formation of single-core cities with far reaching and wide-spreading peripheral development, either in the form of affluent suburbs or as a result of post-Apartheid programmes such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (1995) which, in an attempt to assist the immediate housing shortage, favoured the establishment of single dwelling residential units for low income communities on single plots on affordable land at the urban periphery. This invariably contributed to urban sprawl and even though this programme has since been abandoned, the trend towards low density residential development continues. The research area is the Western Cape Province in South Africa, which in all aspects exhibit the spatial challenges described above. In academia and popular media the City of Cape Town (the only Metropolitan authority in the province) has received the lion’s share of focus in terms of critique on urban development and spatial planning, however, the smaller towns and cities in the Western Cape arguably received much less public attention and were spared the naming and shaming of being unsustainable urban areas in terms of land consumption and physical expansion. The Urban Sprawl Index for the Western Cape (USIWC) put forward by this research enables local authorities in the Western Cape Province to measure the extent of urban sprawl proportionately and comparatively to other cities in the province, thereby acquiring a means of measuring the success of the spatial instruments employed to limit urban expansion and inefficient land consumption. In development of the USIWC the research made use of satellite data for reference years 2001 and 2011 and population growth data extracted from the national census, also for base years 2001 and 2011.

Keywords: urban sprawl, index, Western Cape, South Africa

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Authors: Sara Grazhdani, Alma Cili, Arben Ivanaj

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Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura is an autoimmune disease characterized by the destruction of platelets by immune mediators, their deficient production in the red bone marrow and increased splenic sequestration, leading to the appearance of thrombocytopenia and increased risk of hemorrhage. Treatment is indicated in patients with low platelet counts (<30 x 10 9 /L) who present clinically with hemorrhagic events or are at increased risk for hemorrhage. The goal of the treatment remains (I) prevention of hemorrhagic events and deaths resulting from them, (II) reaching an adequate level of the number of platelets, (III) treatment of patients with as few toxic effects as possible. Corticosteroid therapy remains the first choice in the treatment of patients with Primary Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura. Rituximab (Mabthera) remains the first choice in the second line in the treatment of patients with Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura, refractory to the use of cortisones.

Keywords: ITP, rituximab, prednisolone, relapse

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Authors: Moses Oghenenyoreme Eyankware, Christian Ogubuchi Ede

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Groundwater is the principal source for various uses in this study area. The quality and availability of groundwater depend on rock formation within the study area. To effectively study the quality of groundwater, 24 groundwater samples were collected. The study was aimed at investigating the hydrogeochemistry of groundwater, and additionally its suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes. The following parameters were analyzed using the American Public Health Association standard method: pH, turbidity, Ec, TDS, Mg2+, SO42-, NO3¯, Cl-, HCO3¯, K+, Na2+ and Ca2+. Results obtained from Water Quality Index revealed that the groundwater sample fell within good water quality that implies that groundwater is considered fit for drinking purposes. Deduced results obtained from irrigation indices revealed that Permeability Index (PI), Soluble Sodium Percentage (SSP), Sodium Percentage (Na %), Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), Kelly Ratio (KR), Magnesium Hazard (MH) ranges from 0.00 to 0.01, 4.04 to 412.9, 0.63 to 257.7, 0.15 to 2.34, 0.09 to 2.57 and 6.84 to 84.55 respectively. Findings from Total hardness revealed that groundwater fell within soft, moderately hard and hard categories. Estimated results obtained from CSMR, RI and LSI showed that groundwater showed corrosion tendency, salinization influenced groundwater at certain sampling points and chloride and sulfate unlikely to interfere with natural formation film.

Keywords: water, quality, suitability, anthropogenic, Nigeria

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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The climatic condition over Indian region is highly dependent on monsoon. India receives maximum amount of rainfall during southwest monsoon. Indian economy is highly dependent on agriculture. The presence of flood and drought years influenced the total cultivation system as well as the economy of the country as Indian agricultural systems is still highly dependent on the monsoon rainfall. The present study has been planned to investigate the flood and drought years for the north-west Himalayan region from 1951 to 2014 by using area average Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. For this investigation the Normalized index (NI) has been utilized to find out whether the particular year is drought or flood. The data have been extracted for the north-west Himalayan (NWH) region states namely Uttarakhand (UK), Himachal Pradesh (HP) and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to find out the rainy season average rainfall for each year, climatological mean and the standard deviation. After calculation it has been plotted by the diagrams (or graphs) to show the results- some of the years associated with drought years, some are flood years and rest are neutral. The flood and drought years can also relate with the large-scale phenomena El-Nino and La-Lina.

Keywords: IMD, rainfall, normalized index, flood, drought, NWH

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Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

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Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Abd-Alrahman Embaby, Ayman Abu Halawa, Medhat Ramadan

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The infiltrated water into the subsurface activates expansive soil in localized manner, leading to the differential heaving and destructive of the construction. The Watershed Modeling System (WMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-1) are used to delineate and identify the drainage system and basin morphometry in Tabuk area, where flash floods and accumulation of water may take place. Eight drainage basins effect on Tabuk city. Three of them are expected to be high. The flash floods and surface runoff behavior in these basins are important for any protection projects. It was found that the risky areas that contain Tabuk shale could be expanded when exposed to flash floods and/or surface runoff. The resident neighborhoods in the middle of Tabuk city and affected by surface runoff of the tributaries of the basin of Wadi Abu Nishayfah, Na'am and Atanah outlet, represent high-risk zones. These high-risk neighborhoods are Al Qadsiyah, Al Maseif, Arrwdah, Al Nakhil and Al Rajhi. It can be avoided new constructions on these districts. The low or very low-risk zones include the western and the eastern districts. The western side of the city is lying in the upstream of the small basin. It is suitable for a future urban extension. The direction of surface runoff flow or storm water drain discharge should be away from Tabuk city. The quicker the water can flow out, the better it is.

Keywords: digital elevation model (DEM), flash floods, Saudi Arabia, Tabuk City, watershed modeling system (WMS)

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Authors: Shivi Agarwal, Trilok Mathur

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This paper proposes the method to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) change by credibility theory for fuzzy input and output variables. Total factor productivity change has been widely studied with crisp input and output variables, however, in some cases, input and output data of decision-making units (DMUs) can be measured with uncertainty. These data can be represented as linguistic variable characterized by fuzzy numbers. Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is widely used to estimate the TFP change by calculating the total factor productivity of a DMU for different time periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The fuzzy DEA (FDEA) model is solved using the credibility theory. The results of FDEA is used to measure the TFP change for fuzzy input and output variables. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method to measure the TFP change input and output variables. The suggested methodology can be utilized for performance evaluation of DMUs and help to assess the level of integration. The methodology can also apply to rank the DMUs and can find out the DMUs that are lagging behind and make recommendations as to how they can improve their performance to bring them at par with other DMUs.

Keywords: chance-constrained programming, credibility theory, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy data, Malmquist productivity index

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Authors: Jing-Jing Wang, Yang Gao, Heather H. M. Kwok, Wendy Y. J. Huang

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Objectives: Intellectual disability (ID) ranks among the top 20 most costly disorders. A child with ID creates a wide set of challenges to the individual, family, and society, and overweight and obesity aggravate those challenges. People with ID have the right to attain optimal health like the rest of the population. They should be given priority to eliminate existing health inequities. Childhood obesity epidemic and associated factors among children, in general, has been well documented, while knowledge about overweight and obesity in children with ID is scarce. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 524 Chinese children with ID (males: 68.9%, mean age: 12.2 years) in Hong Kong in 2015. Children’s height and weight were measured at school. Parents, in the presence of their children, completed a self-administered questionnaire at home about the children’s physical activity (PA), eating habits, and sleep duration in a typical week as well as parenting practices regarding children’s eating and PA, and their socio-demographic characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression estimated the potential risk factors for children being overweight. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children with ID was 31.3%, which was higher than their general counterparts (18.7%-19.9%). Multivariate analyses revealed that the risk factors of overweight and obese in children with ID included: comorbidity with autism, the maternal side being overweight or obese, parenting practices with less pressure to eat more, children having shorter sleep duration, longer periods of sedentary behavior, and higher intake frequencies of sweetened food, fried food, and meats, fish, and eggs. Children born in other places, having snacks more frequently, and having irregular meals were also more likely to be overweight or obese, with marginal significance. Conclusions: Children with ID are more vulnerable to being overweight or obese than their typically developing counterparts. Identified risk factors in this study highlight a multifaceted approach to the involvement of parents as well as the modification of some children’s questionable behaviors to help them achieve a healthy weight.

Keywords: prevalence, risk factors, obesity, children with disability

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Authors: Wuon-Shik Kim, Hyoung-Min Choi, Jeonggeon Woo, Sun Jung Kwon, SeungHee Lee

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The research on attentional engagement (AE) in movies using physiological signals is rare and controversial. Therefore, whether physiological responses can be applied to evaluate AE in actual movies is unclear. To clarify this, we measured electrocardiogram and electroencephalogram (EEG) of 16 Japanese university students as they watched the American movie Iron Man. After the viewing, we evaluated the subjective AE and affection levels for 11 film content segments in Iron Man. Based on self-reports for AE, we selected two film content segments as stimuli: Film Content 9 describing Tony Stark (the main character) flying through the night sky (with the highest AE score) and Film Content 1, describing Tony Stark and his colleagues telling indecent jokes (with the lowest score). We divided these two content segments into two time intervals, respectively. Results indicated that the Film Content by Interval interaction for HR was significant, at F (1, 11)=35.64, p<.001, η2=.76; while HR in Film Content 1 decreased, that of in Film Content 9 increased. In Film Content 9, the main effects of the Interval for respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) (F (1, 11)=5.91, p<.05, η2=.35) and for the attention index of EEG (F (1, 11)=5.23, p<.05, η2=.37) were significant. The increase in the RSA was significant (p<.05) as well, whereas that of the EEG attention index was nearly significant (p=.069). In conclusion, while RSA increases, HR decreases when people direct their attention toward normal films. However, while paying attention to a film evoking excitement, HR as well as RSA can increase.

Keywords: attentional engagement, electroencephalogram, movie, respiratory sinus arrhythmia

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Authors: Kavita Khoiwal, Vatsla Dadhwal, K. Aparna Sharma, Dipika Deka, Plabani Sarkar

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Introduction: About 2.4 million (1.93 - 3.04 million) people are living with HIV/AIDS in India. Of all HIV infections, 39% (9,30,000) are among women. 5.4% of infections are from mother to child transmission (MTCT), 25,000 infected children are born every year. Besides the risk of mother to child transmission of HIV, these women are at risk of the higher adverse pregnancy outcome. The objectives of the study were to compare the obstetric and neonatal outcome in women who are HIV positive with low-risk HIV negative women and effect of antiretroviral drugs on preterm birth and IUGR. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective case record analysis of 212 HIV-positive women delivering between 2002 to 2015, in a tertiary health care centre which was compared with 238 HIV-negative controls. Women who underwent medical termination of pregnancy and abortion were excluded from the study. Obstetric outcome analyzed were pregnancy induced hypertension, HIV positive intrauterine growth restriction, preterm birth, anemia, gestational diabetes and intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Neonatal outcome analysed were birth weight, apgar score, NICU admission and perinatal transmission.HIV-positiveOut of 212 women, 204 received antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent MTCT, 27 women received single dose nevirapine (sdNVP) or sdNVP tailed with 7 days of zidovudine and lamivudine (ZDV + 3TC), 15 received ZDV, 82 women received duovir and 80 women received triple drug therapy depending upon the time period of presentation. Results: Mean age of 212 HIV positive women was 25.72+3.6 years, 101 women (47.6 %) were primigravida. HIV positive status was diagnosed during pregnancy in 200 women while 12 women were diagnosed prior to conception. Among 212 HIV positive women, 20 (9.4 %) women had preterm delivery (< 37 weeks), 194 women (91.5 %) delivered by cesarean section and 18 women (8.5 %) delivered vaginally. 178 neonates (83.9 %) received exclusive top feeding and 34 neonates (16.03 %) received exclusive breast feeding. When compared to low risk HIV negative women (n=238), HIV positive women were more likely to deliver preterm (OR 1.27), have anemia (OR 1.39) and intrauterine growth restriction (OR 2.07). Incidence of pregnancy induced hypertension, diabetes mellitus and ICP was not increased. Mean birth weight was significantly lower in HIV positive women (2593.60+499 gm) when compared to HIV negative women (2919+459 gm). Complete follow up is available for 148 neonates till date, rest are under evaluation. Out of these 7 neonates found to have HIV positive status. Risk of preterm birth (P value = 0.039) and IUGR (P value = 0.739) was higher in HIV positive women who did not receive any ART during pregnancy than women who received ART. Conclusion: HIV positive pregnant women are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Multidisciplinary team approach and use of highly active antiretroviral therapy can optimize the maternal and perinatal outcome.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV infection, IUGR, preterm birth

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Authors: Feijoo E. Colomine Duran, Carlos E. Peñaloza Corredor

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There modeling component selection financial investment (Portfolio) a variety of problems that can be addressed with optimization techniques under evolutionary schemes. For his feature, the problem of selection of investment components of a dichotomous relationship between two elements that are opposed: The Portfolio Performance and Risk presented by choosing it. This relationship was modeled by Markowitz through a media problem (Performance) - variance (risk), ie must Maximize Performance and Minimize Risk. This research included the study and implementation of multi-objective evolutionary techniques to solve these problems, taking as experimental framework financial market equities Colombia Stock Exchange between 2009-2015. Comparisons three multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, namely the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) and Indicator-Based Selection in Multiobjective Search (IBEA) were performed using two measures well known performance: The Hypervolume indicator and R_2 indicator, also it became a nonparametric statistical analysis and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The comparative analysis also includes an evaluation of the financial efficiency of the investment portfolio chosen by the implementation of various algorithms through the Sharpe ratio. It is shown that the portfolio provided by the implementation of the algorithms mentioned above is very well located between the different stock indices provided by the Colombia Stock Exchange.

Keywords: finance, optimization, portfolio, Markowitz, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Daphine Namara, Jeremy I. Schwartz, Andrew K. Tusubira, Willi McFarland, Caroline Birungi, Fred C. Semitala, Martin Muddu

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Emerging evidence suggests a possible association between hyperglycemia and dolutegravir (DTG), a preferred first-line antiretroviral agent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). There is a need for rigorous studies to validate this association in the face of increasing DTG use and the burden of non-communicable diseases among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a case-control study to assess the risk of hyperglycemia associated with the use of DTG among PLHIV attending Mulago ISS Clinic in Kampala. Cases had hyperglycemia, while controls had no hyperglycemia, as confirmed by fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance tests. Demographic, laboratory, and clinical data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires and medical record abstraction. The analysis compared cases and controls on DTG use prior to diagnosis of hyperglycemia while controlling for potential confounders using multivariable logistic regression. We included 204 cases and 231 controls. In multivariable analysis, patients with prior DTG use had seven times greater odds of subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia compared to those who had non-DTG-based regimens (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.01, 95% CI 1.96-25.09). The odds of hyperglycemia also increased with age (56 years and above vs. 18-35, aOR 12.38, 95% CI 3.79-40.50) and hypertension (aOR 5.78, 95% CI 2.53-13.21). Our study demonstrates a strong association between prior DTG exposure and subsequent diagnosis of hyperglycemia. Given the benefits of DTG, wide-scale use, and the growing burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in SSA, there is a need for systematic screening for hyperglycemia and consideration of alternate regimens for those at risk for DM.

Keywords: HIV, hyperglycemia, doluteravir, diabetes

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Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

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