Search results for: historical event patterns
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5464

Search results for: historical event patterns

3394 3D Writing on Photosensitive Glass-Ceramics

Authors: C. Busuioc, S. Jinga, E. Pavel

Abstract:

Optical lithography is a key technique in the development of sub-5 nm patterns for the semiconductor industry. We have already reported that the best results obtained with respect to direct laser writing process on active media, such as glass-ceramics, are achieved only when the energy of the laser radiation is absorbed in discrete quantities. Further, we need to clarify the role of active centers concentration in silver nanocrystals natural generation, as well as in fluorescent rare-earth nanostructures formation. As a consequence, samples with different compositions were prepared. SEM, AFM, TEM and STEM investigations were employed in order to demonstrate that few nm width lines can be written on fluorescent photosensitive glass-ceramics, these being efficient absorbers. Moreover, we believe that the experimental data will lead to the best choice in terms of active centers amount, laser power and glass-ceramic matrix.

Keywords: glass-ceramics, 3D laser writing, optical disks, data storage

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3393 Causes of Financial Instability and Banking Crises: A Comparative Study of Analytical Approaches

Authors: Laura Josabeth Oros-Avilés, Josefina León-León

Abstract:

In recent decades, the concern of the monetary authorities has increased because of the instability of the financial sector caused by the crash of speculative bubbles. In fact, the crash of "housing bubble" in U.S. (2007-2008) led the latest global crisis. The aim of paper is to analyze the features and causes of the financial and banking crisis from an historical view. In particular, in this research, a comparative study of some analytical approaches about economic and financial history is discussed. In addition, the role of monetary policy of central banks in managing financial crises, from its origins to today, is analyzed. According to the studied approaches, two types of factors that cause the financial instability were identified: subjective and objectives. In the research, these factors are deeply discussed, in order to noting the agreements and disagreement between the authors. Specially, it is worth noting that all of them recognized that the credit boom and the financial deregulation are the main causes of financial crises.

Keywords: asset prices, banking crises, financial bubble, financial instability, monetary policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 322
3392 Paradox of Business Strategic toward Sustainable Business: A Case Study of Hijab Fashion in Bandung

Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

Abstract:

Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

Procedia PDF Downloads 383
3391 Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms: The Case of Melbourne City, Australia

Authors: The Danh Phan

Abstract:

House price forecasting is a main topic in the real estate market research. Effective house price prediction models could not only allow home buyers and real estate agents to make better data-driven decisions but may also be beneficial for the property policymaking process. This study investigates the housing market by using machine learning techniques to analyze real historical house sale transactions in Australia. It seeks useful models which could be deployed as an application for house buyers and sellers. Data analytics show a high discrepancy between the house price in the most expensive suburbs and the most affordable suburbs in the city of Melbourne. In addition, experiments demonstrate that the combination of Stepwise and Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measurement, consistently outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy.

Keywords: house price prediction, regression trees, neural network, support vector machine, stepwise

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
3390 Investigation of Information Security Incident Management Based on International Standard ISO/IEC 27002 in Educational Hospitals in 2014

Authors: Nahid Tavakoli, Asghar Ehteshami, Akbar Hassanzadeh, Fatemeh Amini

Abstract:

Introduction: The Information security incident management guidelines was been developed to help hospitals to meet their information security event and incident management requirements. The purpose of this Study was to investigate on Information Security Incident Management in Isfahan’s educational hospitals in accordance to ISO/IEC 27002 standards. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study to investigate on Information Security Incident Management of educational hospitals in 2014. Based on ISO/IEC 27002 standards, two checklists were applied to check the compliance with standards on Reporting Information Security Events and Weakness and Management of Information Security Incidents and Improvements. One inspector was trained to carry out the assessments in the hospitals. The data was analyzed by SPSS. Findings: In general the score of compliance Information Security Incident Management requirements in two steps; Reporting Information Security Events and Weakness and Management of Information Security Incidents and Improvements was %60. There was the significant difference in various compliance levels among the hospitals (p-valueKeywords: information security incident management, information security management, standards, hospitals

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3389 Diurnal Circle of Rainfall and Convective Properties over West and Central Africa

Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

Abstract:

The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

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3388 Study of Chlorine Gas Leak Consequences in Direct Chlorination System Failure in Cooling Towers in the Petrochemical Industry

Authors: Mohammad H. Ruhipour, Mahdi Goharrokhi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Artadokht Ostadsarayi

Abstract:

In this paper, we are aiming to study the consequences of chlorine gas leak in direct chlorine gas injection compared to using bleach (sodium hypochlorite), studying the negative effects both on the environment and individuals. This study was performed in the cooling towers of a natural fractioning unit of Bandar-e-IMAM petrochemical plant. Considering that chlorine gas is highly toxic and based on the health regulation, its release into the surrounding environment can be very dangerous for people and even fatal for individuals. We studied performing quantitative studies in the worst cases of event incidence. In addition, studying alternative methods with a lower risk was also on the agenda to select the least likely possible option causing an accident. In this paper chlorine gas release consequences have been evaluated by using PHAST software. Reaching to 10 ppm of chlorine gas concentration was basis of hazardous area determination. The results show that the full chlorine gas line rupture scenario in Pasquill category F, were worst case, and many people could be harmed around cooling towers area because of chlorine gas inhalation.

Keywords: chlorine gas, consequence modeling, cooling towers, direct chlorination, risk assessment, system failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
3387 The Use of Alternative Material to Fabric in Stage Costume

Authors: Melahat Çevik

Abstract:

The discovery of fabric has a quite old historical perspective because of veiling, heating and shelter needs of human. Since the days which fashion has a say, this situation has pasted beyond needs and has become status symbols. For the theater art drama which tell people by people, in the concern of reflecting daily life there will be such regards also we may see alternative products to artistically reshaped fabric. The stage is determined in the consensus of costume designer and director. Costume Designer does the research, taking into account the alternative products. Approaching nature as inventor, discovering products, shapes the work because in this work, cost is considerable. All types of fabric will be used but also new materials which are not presented to clothing industry yet are of great importance. In the discovery of new materials there priorities of the costume designer. In the scene everything should be determined in the axis of actor. The material discussed should have positive qualities which allow the performer to move and invigorate him or her in terms of physical and also should be positive in terms of health. This point must be approached in a more precise in high action plays and the obtained material should be tested before the presentation process.

Keywords: fabric, stage design, alternative materials, clothing industry

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3386 Metastasis of Breast Cancer to the Lungs: Implications of Molecular Biology and Treatment Options

Authors: Fakhrosadat Sajjadian

Abstract:

The majority of deaths in cancer patients are caused by distant metastasis. Breast cancer shows a unique spread pattern, often affecting bone, liver, lung, and brain. Breast cancer can be categorized into various subtypes according to gene expression patterns, and these subtypes exhibit specific preferences for organs where metastasis occurs. Breast tumors with luminal characteristics have a preference for spreading to the bone, whereas basal-like breast cancer (BLBC) shows a tendency to metastasize to the lungs. Still, the mechanisms behind this particular pattern of metastasis in organs have yet to be fully understood. In this evaluation, we will outline the latest progress in molecular signaling pathways and treatment methods for breast cancer lung metastasis.

Keywords: lung cancer, liver cancer, diagnosis, BLBC, metastasis

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3385 Fixed-Frequency Pulse Width Modulation-Based Sliding Mode Controller for Switching Multicellular Converter

Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Ouafae Bennis, Fatima Babaa, Sakina Zerouali

Abstract:

This paper features a sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of DC-DC three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM). To maintain the switching frequency, the approach is to incorporate a pulse-width modulation that utilizes an equivalent control, inferred by applying the SM control method, to produce a control sign to be contrasted and the fixed-frequency within the modulator. Detailed stability and transient performance analysis have been conducted using Lyapunov stability criteria to restrict the switching frequency variation facing wide variations in output load, input changes, and set-point changes. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme in achieving an enhanced output transient performance while faithfully realizing its control objective in the event of abrupt and uncertain parameter variations. Simulations studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment are performed to confirm the idea.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, pulse width modulation, power electronics, sliding mode control

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3384 Towards an Understanding of Social Capital in an Online Community of Filipino Music Artists

Authors: Jerome V. Cleofas

Abstract:

Cyberspace has become a more viable arena for budding artists to share musical acts through digital forms. The increasing relevance of online communities has attracted scholars from various fields demonstrating its influence on social capital. This paper extends this understanding of social capital among Filipino music artists belonging to the SoundCloud Philippines Facebook Group. The study makes use of various qualitative data obtained from key-informant interviews and participant observation of online and physical encounters, analyzed using the case study approach. Soundcloud Philippines has over seven-hundred members and is composed of Filipino singers, instrumentalists, composers, arrangers, producers, multimedia artists, and event managers. Group interactions are a mix of online encounters based on Facebook and SoundCloud and physical encounters through meet-ups and events. Benefits reaped from the community are informational, technical, instrumental, promotional, motivational, and social support. Under the guidance of online group administrators, collaborative activities such as music productions, concerts and events transpire. Most conflicts and problems arising are resolved peacefully. Social capital in SoundCloud Philippines is mobilized through recognition, respect and reciprocity.

Keywords: Facebook, music artists, online communities, social capital

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3383 Leverage Effect for Volatility with Generalized Laplace Error

Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
3382 Towards a More Inclusive Society: A Study on the Assimilation and Integration of the Migrant Children in Kerala

Authors: Arun Perumbilavil Anand

Abstract:

For the past few years, the state of Kerala has been witnessing a large inflow of migrant workers from other states of the country, which emerged as a result of demographic transition and Gulf emigration. The in-migration patterns in Kerala have changed over the time with the migrants having a higher residence history bringing their families to the state, thereby making the process more complicated and divergent in its approach. These developments have led to an increase in the young migrant population at least in some parts of the state, which has opened up doubts and questions related to their future in the host society. At this juncture, the study ponders into the factors that are associated with the assimilation and wellbeing of migrant children in the society of Kerala. As one of the objectives, the study also analyzed the influence and role played by the educational institutions (both public and private) in meeting the needs and aspirations of both the children and their parents. The study gains significance as it tries to identify various impediments that hinder the cognitive skill formation and behaviour patterns of the migrant children in the host society. Data and Methodology: The study is based on the primary data collected through a series of interviews and interactions held with parents, children, and teachers of different educational institutions, including both public and private. The primary survey also made use of research techniques like observation, in-depth interviews, and case study method. The study was conducted in schools in the Kanjikode area of the Palakkad district in Kerala. The findings of the study are on the basis of a survey conducted in four schools and 40 migrant children. Findings: The study found that majority of the children have wholly integrated and assimilated into the host society. The influence of the peer group was quite visible in giving stimulus to the assimilation process. Most of the children do not have any emotional or cultural sentiments attached to their state of origin, and they consider Kerala as their ‘home state’ and the local language (Malayalam) as their ‘mother tongue'. The study could also find that the existing education system in the host society fails to meet the needs and aspirations of migrants as well as that of their children. On a comparative scale, to some extent, private schools have succeeded in fulfiling the special requirements of the migrant children. An interesting point that the study could pinpoint at is that the children of the migrants show better health conditions and wellbeing than compared to the natives, which is usually addressed as an epidemiologic paradox. As a concluding remark, the study recommends the inclusion concept of inclusive education into the education system of the state with giving due emphasis on those who are at higher risk of being excluded or marginalized, along with fostering increased interaction between diverse groups.

Keywords: assimilation, Kerala, migrant children, well-being

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3381 Semiparametric Regression Of Truncated Spline Biresponse On Farmer Loyalty And Attachment Modeling

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

Abstract:

Regression analysis is a statistical method that is able to describe and predict causal relationships between individuals. Not all relationships have a known curve shape; often, there are relationship patterns that cannot be known in the shape of the curve; besides that, a cause can have an impact on more than one effect, so that between effects can also have a close relationship in it. Regression analysis that can be done to find out the relationship can be brought closer to the semiparametric regression of truncated spline biresponse. The purpose of this study is to examine the function estimator and determine the best model of truncated spline biresponse semiparametric regression. The results of the secondary data study showed that the best model with the highest order of quadratic and a maximum of two knots with a Goodness of fit value in the form of Adjusted R2 of 88.5%.

Keywords: biresponse, farmer attachment, farmer loyalty, truncated spline

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3380 A Study of Bilingual Development of a Mandarin and English Bilingual Preschool Child from China to Australia

Authors: Qiang Guo, Ruying Qi

Abstract:

This project aims to trace the developmental patterns of a child's Mandarin and English from China to Australia from age 3; 03 till 5; 06. In childhood bilingual studies, there is an assumption that age 3 is the dividing line between simultaneous bilinguals and sequential bilinguals. Determining similarities and differences between Bilingual First Language Acquisition, Early Second Language Acquisition, and Second Language Acquisition is of great theoretical significance. Studies on Bilingual First Language Acquisition, hereafter, BFLA in the past three decades have shown that the grammatical development of bilingual children progresses through the same developmental trajectories as their monolingual counterparts. Cross-linguistic interaction does not show changes of the basic grammatical knowledge, even in the weaker language. While BFLA studies show consistent results under the conditions of adequate input and meaningful interactional context, the research findings of Early Second Language Acquisition (ESLA) have demonstrated that this cohort proceeds their early English differently from both BFLA and SLA. The different development could be attributed to the age of migration, input pattern, and their Environmental Languages (Lε). In the meantime, the dynamic relationship between the two languages is an issue to invite further attention. The present study attempts to fill this gap. The child in this case study started acquiring L1 Mandarin from birth in China, where the environmental language (Lε) coincided with L1 Mandarin. When she migrated to Australia at 3;06, where the environmental language (Lε) was L2 English, her Mandarin exposure was reduced. On the other hand, she received limited English input starting from 1; 02 in China, where the environmental language (Lε) was L1 Mandarin, a non-English environment. When she relocated to Australia at 3; 06, where the environmental language (Lε) coincided with L2 English, her English exposure significantly increased. The child’s linguistic profile provides an opportunity to explore: (1) What does the child’s English developmental route look like? (2) What does the L1 Mandarin developmental pattern look like in different environmental languages? (3) How do input and environmental language interact in shaping the bilingual child’s linguistic repertoire? In order to answer these questions, two linguistic areas are selected as the focus of the investigation, namely, subject realization and wh-questions. The chosen areas are contrastive in structure but perform the same semantic functions in the two linguistically distant languages and can serve as an ideal testing ground for exploring the developmental path in the two languages. The longitudinal case study adopts a combined approach of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Two years’ Mandarin and English data are examined, and comparisons are made with age-matched monolinguals in each language in CHILDES. To the author’s best knowledge, this study is the first of this kind examining a Mandarin-English bilingual child's bilingual development at a critical age, in different input patterns, and in different environmental languages (Lε). It also expands the scope of the theory of Lε, adding empirical evidence on the relationship between input and Lε in bilingual acquisition.

Keywords: bilingual development, age, input, environmental language (Le)

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3379 Atmospheric Transport Modeling of Radio-Xenon Detections Possibly Related to the Announced Nuclear Test in North Korea on February 12, 2013

Authors: Kobi Kutsher

Abstract:

On February 12th 2013, monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) detected a seismic event with explosion-like underground characteristics in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The location was found to be in the vicinity of the two previous announced nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.The nuclear test was also announced by the government of the DPRK.After an underground nuclear explosion, radioactive fission products (mostly noble gases) can seep through layers of rock and sediment until they escape into the atmosphere. The fission products are dispersed in the atmosphere and may be detected thousands of kilometers downwind from the test site. Indeed, more than 7 weeks after the explosion, unusual detections of noble gases was reported at the radionuclide station in Takasaki, Japan. The radionuclide station is a part of the International Monitoring System, operated to verify the CTBT. This study provides an estimation of the possible source region and the total radioactivity of the release using Atmospheric Transport Modeling.

Keywords: atmospheric transport modeling, CTBTO, nuclear tests, radioactive fission products

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3378 A Wideband Low-Profile Circularly-Polarized Slotted Patch Antenna

Authors: Sai Radavaram

Abstract:

A wideband low-profile circularly-polarized antenna, consisting of 2×2 sequentially-rotated, differentially-fed, slotted rectangular patch elements, is proposed. To realize the right-hand circular polarization, an anti-clockwise phase rotation of 0o, -90o, -180o and -270o is applied between the antenna elements. The proposed antenna, with a height of only 0.02lambda (where lambda is the wavelength of the antenna at the center frequency of the antenna), exhibits a 68% impedance bandwidth from 2 to 4.05 GHz with a 3dB axial ratio bandwidth in the order of 56% from 2.25 to 4.05 GHz. Moreover, a wide 3dB axial ratio beamwidth of 140o is obtained at the center frequency of 3 GHz, along with symmetrical radiation patterns over the operating frequency band.

Keywords: circular polarization, sequentially rotated, slotted patch antennas, wideband

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3377 Evaluations of 3D Concrete Printing Produced in the Environment of United Arab Emirates

Authors: Adil K. Tamimi, Tarig Ali, Rawan Anoohi, Ahmed Rajput, Kaltham Alkamali

Abstract:

3D concrete printing is one of the most innovative and modern techniques in the field of construction that achieved several milestones in that field for the following advantages: saving project’s time, ability to execute complicated shapes, reduce waste and low cost. However, the concept of 3D printing in UAE is relatively new where construction teams, including clients, consultants, and contractors, do not have the required knowledge and experience in the field. This is the most significant obstacle for the construction parties, which make them refrained from using 3D concrete printing compared to conventional concreting methods. This study shows the historical development of the 3D concrete printing, its advantages, and the challenges facing this innovation. Concrete mixes and materials have been proposed and evaluated to select the best combination for successful 3D concrete printing. The main characteristics of the 3D concrete printing in the fresh and hardened states are considered, such as slump test, flow table, compressive strength, tensile, and flexural strengths. There is need to assess the structural stability of the 3D concrete by testing the bond between interlayers of the concrete.  

Keywords: 3D printing, workability, compressive strength, robots, dimensions

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
3376 A Novel PSO Based Decision Tree Classification

Authors: Ali Farzan

Abstract:

Classification of data objects or patterns is a major part in most of Decision making systems. One of the popular and commonly used classification methods is Decision Tree (DT). It is a hierarchical decision making system by which a binary tree is constructed and starting from root, at each node some of the classes is rejected until reaching the leaf nods. Each leaf node is a representative of one specific class. Finding the splitting criteria in each node for constructing or training the tree is a major problem. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been adopted as a metaheuristic searching method for finding the best splitting criteria. Result of evaluating the proposed method over benchmark datasets indicates the higher accuracy of the new PSO based decision tree.

Keywords: decision tree, particle swarm optimization, splitting criteria, metaheuristic

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3375 Female Dis-Empowerment in Contemporary Zimbabwe: A Re-Look at Shona Writers’ Vision of the Factors and Solutions

Authors: Godwin Makaudze

Abstract:

The majority of women in contemporary Zimbabwe continue to hold marginalised and insignificant positions in society and to be accorded negative and stereotyped images in literature. In light of this, government and civic organisations and even writers channel many resources, time, and efforts towards the emancipation of the female gender. Using the Africana womanist and socio-historical literary theories and focussing on two post-colonial novels, this paper re-engages the dis-empowerment of women in contemporary Zimbabwe, examining the believed causes and suggested solutions. The paper observes that the writers whip the already whipped by blaming patriarchy, African men and cultural practices as the underlying causes of such a sorry state of affairs while at the same time celebrating war against all these, as well as education, unity among women, Christianity and single motherhood as panaceas to the problem. The paper concludes that the writers’ anger is misdirected as they have fallen trap to the very popular yet mythical victim-blame motif espoused by many writers who focus on Shona people’s problems.

Keywords: cultural practices, female dis-empowerment, patriarchy, Shona novel, solutions, Zimbabwe

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3374 Estimation of the Upper Tail Dependence Coefficient for Insurance Loss Data Using an Empirical Copula-Based Approach

Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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3373 Reasons of Change in Security Prices and Price Volatility: An Analysis of the European Carbon Futures Market

Authors: Boulis M. Ibrahim, Iordanis A. Kalaitzoglou

Abstract:

A micro structural pricing model is proposed in which price components account for learning by incorporating changing expectations of the trading intensity and the risk level of incoming trades. An analysis of European carbon futures transactions finds expected trading intensity to increase the information component and decrease the liquidity component of price changes, but at different rates. Among the results, the expected persistence in trading intensity explains the majority of the auto correlations in the level and the conditional volatility of price changes, helps predict hourly patterns in the bid–ask spread and differentiates between the impact of buy versus sell and continuing versus reversing trades.

Keywords: CO2 emission allowances, market microstructure, duration, price discovery

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3372 Beyond Geometry: The Importance of Surface Properties in Space Syntax Research

Authors: Christoph Opperer

Abstract:

Space syntax is a theory and method for analyzing the spatial layout of buildings and urban environments to understand how they can influence patterns of human movement, social interaction, and behavior. While direct visibility is a key factor in space syntax research, important visual information such as light, color, texture, etc., are typically not considered, even though psychological studies have shown a strong correlation to the human perceptual experience within physical space – with light and color, for example, playing a crucial role in shaping the perception of spaciousness. Furthermore, these surface properties are often the visual features that are most salient and responsible for drawing attention to certain elements within the environment. This paper explores the potential of integrating these factors into general space syntax methods and visibility-based analysis of space, particularly for architectural spatial layouts. To this end, we use a combination of geometric (isovist) and topological (visibility graph) approaches together with image-based methods, allowing a comprehensive exploration of the relationship between spatial geometry, visual aesthetics, and human experience. Custom-coded ray-tracing techniques are employed to generate spherical panorama images, encoding three-dimensional spatial data in the form of two-dimensional images. These images are then processed through computer vision algorithms to generate saliency-maps, which serve as a visual representation of areas most likely to attract human attention based on their visual properties. The maps are subsequently used to weight the vertices of isovists and the visibility graph, placing greater emphasis on areas with high saliency. Compared to traditional methods, our weighted visibility analysis introduces an additional layer of information density by assigning different weights or importance levels to various aspects within the field of view. This extends general space syntax measures to provide a more nuanced understanding of visibility patterns that better reflect the dynamics of human attention and perception. Furthermore, by drawing parallels to traditional isovist and VGA analysis, our weighted approach emphasizes a crucial distinction, which has been pointed out by Ervin and Steinitz: the difference between what is possible to see and what is likely to be seen. Therefore, this paper emphasizes the importance of including surface properties in visibility-based analysis to gain deeper insights into how people interact with their surroundings and to establish a stronger connection with human attention and perception.

Keywords: space syntax, visibility analysis, isovist, visibility graph, visual features, human perception, saliency detection, raytracing, spherical images

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3371 Arousal, Encoding, And Intrusive Memories

Authors: Hannah Gutmann, Rick Richardson, Richard Bryant

Abstract:

Intrusive memories following a traumatic event are not uncommon. However, in some individuals, these memories become maladaptive and lead to prolonged stress reactions. A seminal model of PTSD explains that aberrant processing during trauma may lead to prolonged stress reactions and intrusive memories. This model explains that elevated arousal at the time of the trauma promotes data driven processing, leading to fragmented and intrusive memories. This study investigated the role of elevated arousal on the development of intrusive memories. We measured salivary markers of arousal and investigated what impact this had on data driven processing, memory fragmentation, and subsequently, the development of intrusive memories. We assessed 100 healthy participants to understand their processing style, arousal, and experience of intrusive memories. Participants were randomised to a control or experimental condition, the latter of which was designed to increase their arousal. Based on current theory, participants in the experimental condition were expected to engage in more data driven processing and experience more intrusive memories than participants in the control condition. This research aims to shed light on the mechanisms underlying the development of intrusive memories to illustrate ways in which therapeutic approaches for PTSD may be augmented for greater efficacy.

Keywords: stress, cortisol, SAA, PTSD, intrusive memories

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
3370 Sororicide in the Forbidden City: Women Oppressing Each Other in the Chinese TV Drama “The Legend of Zhen Huan”

Authors: Muriel Canas-Walker

Abstract:

The 2012 TV series "The Legend of Zhen Huan" is one of the most popular and influential historical dramas on Chinese television and is regularly discussed on Chinese social media such as Weibo. Set in the Qing dynasty, the 76 episodes series features palace intrigues focused on female characters. In the Forbidden City, concubines must survive the cruelty of an extreme polygamy system, constantly competing against each other. The patriarchal oppression of the women sequestred in the harem relies on fierce female competition and does not leave much room for compassion. Using Michel Foucault’s theory of power, feminist theories, and visual anthropology, this paper analyzes the complex relationships between the female characters, from their rise to power to their fall from grace, from alliances to betrayals, from sorority to sororicide. This analysis aims to understand what makes this series particularly popular with young female audiences in China and explain its importance in Chinese media.

Keywords: Chinese TV Drama, feminism, popular culture, Theory of Power

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3369 Engineering Seismological Studies in and around Zagazig City, Sharkia, Egypt

Authors: M. El-Eraki, A. A. Mohamed, A. A. El-Kenawy, M. S. Toni, S. I. Mustafa

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to study the ground vibrations using Nakamura technique to evaluate the relation between the ground conditions and the earthquake characteristics. Microtremor measurements were carried out at 55 sites in and around Zagazig city. The signals were processed using horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique to estimate the fundamental frequencies of the soil deposits and its corresponding H/V amplitude. Seismic measurements were acquired at nine sites for recording the surface waves. The recorded waveforms were processed using the multi-channel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method to infer the shear wave velocity profile. The obtained fundamental frequencies were found to be ranging from 0.7 to 1.7 Hz and the maximum H/V amplitude reached 6.4. These results together with the average shear wave velocity in the surface layers were used for the estimation of the thickness of the upper most soft cover layers (depth to bedrock). The sediment thickness generally increases at the northeastern and southwestern parts of the area, which is in good agreement with the local geological structure. The results of this work showed the zones of higher potential damage in the event of an earthquake in the study area.

Keywords: ambient vibrations, fundamental frequency, surface waves, zagazig

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3368 The Communication Library DIALOG for iFDAQ of the COMPASS Experiment

Authors: Y. Bai, M. Bodlak, V. Frolov, S. Huber, V. Jary, I. Konorov, D. Levit, J. Novy, D. Steffen, O. Subrt, M. Virius

Abstract:

Modern experiments in high energy physics impose great demands on the reliability, the efficiency, and the data rate of Data Acquisition Systems (DAQ). This contribution focuses on the development and deployment of the new communication library DIALOG for the intelligent, FPGA-based Data Acquisition System (iFDAQ) of the COMPASS experiment at CERN. The iFDAQ utilizing a hardware event builder is designed to be able to readout data at the maximum rate of the experiment. The DIALOG library is a communication system both for distributed and mixed environments, it provides a network transparent inter-process communication layer. Using the high-performance and modern C++ framework Qt and its Qt Network API, the DIALOG library presents an alternative to the previously used DIM library. The DIALOG library was fully incorporated to all processes in the iFDAQ during the run 2016. From the software point of view, it might be considered as a significant improvement of iFDAQ in comparison with the previous run. To extend the possibilities of debugging, the online monitoring of communication among processes via DIALOG GUI is a desirable feature. In the paper, we present the DIALOG library from several insights and discuss it in a detailed way. Moreover, the efficiency measurement and comparison with the DIM library with respect to the iFDAQ requirements is provided.

Keywords: data acquisition system, DIALOG library, DIM library, FPGA, Qt framework, TCP/IP

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
3367 Unconscious Bias in Judicial Decisions: Legal Genealogy and Disgust in Cases of Private, Adult, Consensual Sexual Acts Leading to Injury

Authors: Susanna Menis

Abstract:

‘Unconscious’ bias is widespread, affecting society on all levels of decision-making and beyond. Placed in the law context, this study will explore the direct effect of the psycho-social and cultural evolution of unconscious bias on how a judicial decision was made. The aim of this study is to contribute to socio-legal scholarship by examining the formation of unconscious bias and its influence on the creation of legal rules that judges believe reflect social solidarity and protect against violence. The study seeks to understand how concepts like criminalization and unlawfulness are constructed by the common law. The study methodology follows two theoretical approaches: historical genealogy and emotions as sociocultural phenomena. Both methods have the ‘tracing back’ of the original formation of a social way of seeing and doing things in common. The significance of this study lies in the importance of reflecting on the ways unconscious bias may be formed; placing judges’ decisions under this spotlight forces us to challenge the status quo, interrogate justice, and seek refinement of the law.

Keywords: legal geneology, emotions, disgust, criminal law

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3366 Fly ash Contamination in Groundwater and its Implications on Local Climate Change

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

Abstract:

Fly ash, a byproduct of coal combustion, has become a prevalent environmental concern due to its potential impact on both groundwater quality and local climate change. This study aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the various mechanisms through which fly ash contaminates groundwater, as well as the possible consequences of this contamination on local climate change. The presence of fly ash in groundwater not only poses a risk to human health but also has the potential to influence local climate change through complex interactions. Although fly ash has various applications in construction and other industries, improper disposal and lack of containment measures have led to its infiltration into groundwater systems. Through a comprehensive review of existing literature and case studies, the interactions between fly ash and groundwater systems, assess the effects on hydrology, and discuss the implications for the broader climate. This section reviews the pathways through which fly ash enters groundwater, including leaching from disposal sites, infiltration through soil, and migration from surface water bodies. The physical and chemical characteristics of fly ash that contribute to its mobility and persistence in groundwater. The introduction of fly ash into groundwater can alter its chemical composition, leading to an increase in the concentration of heavy metals, metalloids, and other potentially toxic elements. The mechanisms of contaminant transport and highlight the potential risks to human health and ecosystems. Fly ash contamination in groundwater may influence the hydrological cycle through changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, and flow dynamics. This section examines the implications of altered hydrology on local water availability, aquatic habitats, and overall ecosystem health. The presence of fly ash in groundwater may have direct and indirect effects on local climate change. The role of fly ash as a potent greenhouse gas absorber and its contribution to radiative forcing. Additionally, investigation of the possible feedback mechanisms between groundwater contamination and climate change, such as altered vegetation patterns and changes in local temperature and precipitation patterns. In this section, potential mitigation and remediation techniques to minimize fly ash contamination in groundwater are analyzed. These may include improved waste management practices, engineered barriers, groundwater remediation technologies, and sustainable fly ash utilization. This paper highlights the critical link between fly ash contamination in groundwater and its potential contribution to local climate change. It emphasizes the importance of addressing this issue promptly through a combination of preventive measures, effective management strategies, and continuous monitoring. By understanding the interconnections between fly ash contamination, groundwater quality, and local climate, towards creating a more resilient and sustainable environment for future generations. The findings of this research can assist policymakers and environmental managers in formulating sustainable strategies to mitigate fly ash contamination and minimize its contribution to climate change.

Keywords: groundwater, climate, sustainable environment, fly ash contamination

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3365 Social Media Use and Exercise Behaviors

Authors: Justin M. Swanson, Anna Nelson, Daniel Handysides, Patti Herring, Christopher Hill

Abstract:

Not only may social media use have a psychological impact, but increased use may be tied to decreases in physical activity and influencing sedentary behaviors. Social media can be used to share physically active lifestyles and possibly influence others to participate. In contrast, social media use may have adverse effects by decreasing participation in exercise. This study used a qualitative design to examine the relationship between social media use and exercise patterns. Participants were asked questions about their social media habits and how it might impact their physical activity behaviors. Self-reported exercise seemed to increase after viewing others engage in relatable activities or viewing someone that has overcame challenges. To increase the likelihood of engaging in exercise, exercise related posts should be low in difficulty, require few materials, or displayed progress from the individual posting.

Keywords: social media, exercise, physical activity, adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 258