Search results for: uncertainty simulation

Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

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Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: David Gligor

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The purpose of this study was to build on Fisher's (1997) seminal article. First, it sought to determine how companies can achieve supply chain fit (i.e., match between the products' characteristics and the underlying supply chain design). Second, it attempted to develop a better understanding of how environmental conditions impact the relationship between supply chain fit and performance. The findings indicate that firm supply chain agility allows organizations to quickly adjust the structure of their supply chains and therefore, achieve supply chain fit. In addition, archival and survey data were used to explore the moderating effects of six environmental uncertainty dimensions: munificence, market dynamism, technological dynamism, technical complexity, product diversity, and geographic dispersion. All environmental variables, except technological dynamism, were found to impact the relationship between supply chain fit and firm performance.

Keywords: supply chain fit, environmental uncertainty, supply chain agility, management engineering

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Authors: A. Nuchitprasittichai, N. Lerdritsirikoon, T. Khamsing

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Simulation modeling can be used to solve real world problems. It provides an understanding of a complex system. To develop a simplified model of process simulation, a suitable experimental design is required to be able to capture surface characteristics. This paper presents the experimental design and algorithm used to model the process simulation for optimization problem. The CO₂ liquefaction based on external refrigeration with two refrigeration circuits was used as a simulation case study. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was purposed to combine with existing Central Composite Design (CCD) samples to improve the performance of CCD in generating the second order model of the system. The second order model was then used as the objective function of the optimization problem. The results showed that adding LHS samples to CCD samples can help capture surface curvature characteristics. Suitable number of LHS sample points should be considered in order to get an accurate nonlinear model with minimum number of simulation experiments.

Keywords: central composite design, CO2 liquefaction, latin hypercube sampling, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Mehdi Homayouni, Karim Adinehvand, Bakhtiar Azadbakht

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In this study, we used Monte Carlo code (MCNP4C) that is a general method, for simulation, electron source and electric field, a disc source with 0.05 cm radius in direct of anode are used, radius of disc source show focal spot of X-ray tube that here is 0.05 cm. In this simulation, the anode is from tungsten with 18.9 g/cm3 density and angle of the anode is 18°. We simulated X-ray tube for 140 kv. For increasing of speed data acquisition, we use F5 tally. With determination the exact position of F5 tally in the program, outputs are acquired. In this spectrum the start point is about 0.02 Mev, the absorption edges are about 0.06 Mev and 0.07 Mev, and average energy is about 0.05 Mev.

Keywords: X-spectrum, simulation, Monte Carlo, tube

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Authors: Yoshinori Matsuura, Saori Iwanaga

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The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred at 14:46 on Friday, March 11, 2011. It was the most powerful known earthquake to have hit Japan. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 40.5 meters in height. We focus on the ship’s evacuation from tsunami. Then we analyze about ships evacuation from tsunami using multi-agent simulation and we want to prepare for a coming earthquake. We developed a simulation model of ships that set sail from the port in order to evacuate from the tsunami considering the ship carrying dangerous goods.

Keywords: Ship’s evacuation, multi-agent simulation, tsunami

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Authors: Martin Kendra, Tomas Skrucany, Jozef Gnap, Jan Ponicky

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Paper deals with the modeling and simulation of energy consumption and GHG production of two different modes of regional passenger transport – road and railway. These two transport modes use the same type of fuel – diesel. Modeling and simulation of the energy consumption in transport is often used due to calculation satisfactory accuracy and cost efficiency. Paper deals with the calculation based on EN standards and information collected from technical information from vehicle producers and characteristics of tracks. Calculation included maximal theoretical capacity of bus and train and real passenger’s measurement from operation. Final energy consumption and GHG production is calculated by using software simulation. In evaluation of the simulation is used system ‘well to wheel’.

Keywords: bus, consumption energy, GHG, production, simulation, train

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Authors: Assile Abou Diab, Shadi Najjar

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Fiber-reinforcement is an effective soil improvement technique for applications involving the prevention of shallow failures on the slope face and the repair of existing slope failures. A typical application is the stabilization of cohesionless infinite slopes. The objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic, reliability-based methodology (based on Monte Carlo simulations) for the design of a practical fiber-reinforced cohesionless infinite slope, taking into consideration the impact of various sources of uncertainty. Recommendations are made regarding the required factors of safety that need to be used to achieve a given target reliability level. These factors of safety could differ from the traditional deterministic factor of safety.

Keywords: factor of safety, fiber reinforcement, infinite slope, reliability-based design, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Amin Sahebnasagh, Karim Adinehvand, Bakhtiar Azadbakht

Abstract:

In this study, we used Monte Carlo code (MCNP4C) that is a general method, for simulation, electron source and electric field, a disc source with 0.05 cm radius in direct of anode are used, radius of disc source show focal spot of x-ray tube that here is 0.05 cm. In this simulation, anode is from tungsten with 18.9 g/cm3 density and angle of anode is 180. we simulated x-ray tube for 140 kv. For increasing of speed data acquisition we use F5 tally. With determination the exact position of F5 tally in program, outputs are acquired. In this spectrum the start point is about 0.02 Mev, the absorption edges are about 0.06 Mev and 0.07 Mev and average energy is about 0.05 Mev.

Keywords: x-spectrum, simulation, Monte Carlo, MCNP4C code

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Chhaya Gangwal, R. N. Bhaumik, Shishir Kumar

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Handling uncertainty and impreciseness of knowledge appears to be a challenging task in Information Systems. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) and rough set theory enhances databases by allowing it for the management of uncertainty and impreciseness. This paper presents a new efficient query optimization technique for the multi-valued or imprecise IF rough database. The usefulness of this technique was illustrated on malaria knowledge from the rural tribal communities of Tripura where most of the information is multi-valued and imprecise. Then, the querying about knowledge on malaria is executed into SQL server to make the implementation of IF rough data querying simpler.

Keywords: intuitionistic fuzzy set, rough set, relational database, IF rough relational database

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: limit cycles, nonlinear dynamical system, real time obstacle avoidance, safety margin

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Authors: B. A. A. Paixão, J. V. B. Gomide

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This work aims to analyze the locative structure used by the locative games of the company Niantic. To fulfill this objective, a literature review on the representation and simulation of cities was developed; interviews with Ingress players and playing Ingress. Relating these data, it was possible to deepen the relationship between the virtual and the real to create the simulation of cities and their cultural objects in locative games. Cities representation associates geo-location provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS), with augmented reality and digital image, and provides a new paradigm in the city interaction with its parts and real and virtual world elements, homeomorphic to real world. Bibliographic review of papers related to the representation and simulation study and their application in locative games was carried out and is presented in the present paper. The cities representation and simulation concepts in locative games, and how this setting enables the flow and immersion in urban space, are analyzed. Some examples of games are discussed for this new setting development, which is a mix of real and virtual world. Finally, it was proposed a Locative Structure for electronic games using the concepts of heterotrophic representations and isotropic representations conjoined with immediacy and hypermediacy.

Keywords: cities representation, cities simulation, games simulation, immersion, locative games

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Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

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Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

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Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: commercialization method, technology, knowledge, intellectual property, innovation, invention

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Authors: Markéta Gregušová, Vladimíra Schindlerová, Ivana Šajdlerová, Petr Mohyla, Jan Kedroň

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Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. To maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or to come up with a revolutionary business idea is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tool, or approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even of the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk, which makes it possible to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of use of simulation for solution of the bottleneck problem in the concrete company.

Keywords: practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation

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Authors: U. P. L. Wijayarathne, K. C. Wasalathilake

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This work presents the modelling and simulation of saponification of ethyl acetate in the presence of sodium hydroxide in a plug flow reactor using Aspen Plus simulation software. Plug flow reactors are widely used in the industry due to the non-mixing property. The use of plug flow reactors becomes significant when there is a need for continuous large scale reaction or fast reaction. Plug flow reactors have a high volumetric unit conversion as the occurrence for side reactions is minimum. In this research Aspen Plus V8.0 has been successfully used to simulate the plug flow reactor. In order to simulate the process as accurately as possible HYSYS Peng-Robinson EOS package was used as the property method. The results obtained from the simulation were verified by the experiment carried out in the EDIBON plug flow reactor module. The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.98 and it proved that simulation results satisfactorily fit for the experimental model. The developed model can be used as a guide for understanding the reaction kinetics of a plug flow reactor.

Keywords: aspen plus, modelling, plug flow reactor, simulation

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Authors: Thomas Trouton, Sebastian Tanner, Manvir Sandher

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The use of simulation in undergraduate and postgraduate medical curricula is ever-growing, is a useful addition to the traditional apprenticeship model of learning within medical education, and better prepares graduates for the team-based approach to healthcare seen in real-life clinical practice. As a learning tool, however, undergraduate medical students often have little understanding of the theory behind the use of medical simulation and have little experience in planning and delivering their own simulated teaching sessions. We designed and implemented a student-selected component (SSC) as part of the undergraduate medical curriculum at the University of Buckingham Medical School to introduce students to the concepts behind the use of medical simulation in education and allow them to plan and deliver their own simulated medical scenario to their peers. The SSC took place over a 2-week period in the 3rd year of the undergraduate course. There was a mix of lectures, seminars and interactive group work sessions, as well as hands-on experience in the simulation suite, to introduce key concepts related to medical simulation, including technical considerations in simulation, human factors, debriefing and troubleshooting scenarios. We evaluated the success of our SSC using “Net Promotor Scores” (NPS) to assess students’ confidence in planning and facilitating a simulation-based teaching session, as well as leading a debrief session. In all three domains, we showed an increase in the confidence of the students. We also showed an increase in confidence in the management of common medical emergencies as a result of the SSC. Overall, the students who chose our SSC had the opportunity to learn new skills in medical education, with a particular focus on the use of simulation-based teaching, and feedback highlighted that a number of students would take these skills forward in their own practice. We demonstrated an increase in confidence in several domains related to the use of medical simulation in education and have hopefully inspired a new generation of medical educators.

Keywords: simulation, SSC, teaching, medical students

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Authors: Walid Hassairi, Moncef Bousselmi, Mohamed Abid

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Functional verification is a major part of today’s system design task. Several approaches are available for verification on a high abstraction level, where designs are often modeled using MATLAB/Simulink. However, different approaches are a barrier to a unified verification flow. In this paper, we propose a co-simulation interface between SystemC and MATLAB and Simulink to enable functional verification of multi-abstraction levels designs. The resulting verification flow is tested on JPEG compression algorithm. The required synchronization of both simulation environments, as well as data type conversion is solved using the proposed co-simulation flow. We divided into two encoder jpeg parts. First implemented in SystemC which is the DCT is representing the HW part. Second, consisted of quantization and entropy encoding which is implemented in Matlab is the SW part. For communication and synchronization between these two parts we use S-Function and engine in Simulink matlab. With this research premise, this study introduces a new implementation of a Hardware SystemC of DCT. We compare the result of our simulation compared to SW / SW. We observe a reduction in simulation time you have 88.15% in JPEG and the design efficiency of the supply design is 90% in SDR.

Keywords: hardware/software, co-design, co-simulation, systemc, matlab, s-function, communication, synchronization

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Authors: He Chao, Zhang Lei, Liu Ran, Li Ang

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Temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen is of importance to the space environment simulator, which keep the shrouds in the temperature range from -150℃ to +150℃. Liquid nitrogen spray equipment is one of the most critical parts in the temperature regulating system by gaseous nitrogen. Y type jet atomizer and internal mixing atomizer of the liquid nitrogen spray equipment are studied in this paper, 2D/3D atomizer model was established and grid division was conducted respectively by the software of Catia and ICEM. Based on the above preparation, numerical simulation on the spraying process of the atomizer by FLUENT is performed. Using air and water as the medium, comparison between the tests and numerical simulation was conducted and the results of two ways match well. Hence, it can be conclude that this atomizer model can be applied in the numerical simulation of liquid nitrogen spray equipment.

Keywords: space environmental simulator, liquid nitrogen spray, Y type jet atomizer, internal mixing atomizer, numerical simulation, fluent

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Authors: Galu Papy Yuma

Abstract:

This paper presents a new dynamic simulation of a power system consisting of four machines equipped with the Generalized Unified Power Flow Controller (GUPFC) to improve power system stability. The dynamic simulation of the GUPFC consists of one shunt converter and two series converters based on voltage source converter, and DC link capacitor installed in the power system. MATLAB/Simulink is used to arrange the dynamic simulation of the GUPFC, where the power system is simulated in order to investigate the impact of the controller on power system oscillation damping and to show the simulation program reliability. The Improved Chaotic- Harmony Search (IC-HS) Algorithm is used to provide the parameter controller in order to lead-lag compensation design. The results obtained by simulation show that the power system with four machines is suitable for stability analysis. The use of GUPFC and IC-HS Algorithm provides the excellent capability in fast damping of power system oscillations and improve greatly the dynamic stability of the power system.

Keywords: GUPFC, IC-HS algorithm, Matlab/Simulink, damping oscillation

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Authors: Isaac Mugume

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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Authors: Chetra Mang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Xavier Lorang

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Lattice structures are widely used in various applications, especially in aeronautic, aerospace, and medical applications because of their high performance properties. Thanks to advancement of the additive manufacturing technology, the lattice structures can be manufactured by different methods such as laser beam melting technology. However, the presence of geometric defects in the lattice structures is inevitable due to the manufacturing process. The geometric defects may have high impact on the mechanical strength of the structures. This work analyzes the correlation between the manufacturing parameters and the mechanical strengths of the lattice structures. To do that, two types of the lattice structures; body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) structures made of Inconel718, and body-centered cubic (BCC) structures made of Scalmalloy, are manufactured by laser melting beam machine using Taguchi design of experiment. Each structure is placed on the substrate with a specific position and orientation regarding the roller direction of deposed metal powder. The position and orientation are considered as the manufacturing parameters. The geometric defects of each beam in the lattice are characterized and used to build the geometric model in order to perform simulations. Then, the mechanical strengths are defined by the homogeneous response as Young's modulus and yield strength. The distribution of mechanical strengths is observed as a function of manufacturing parameters. The mechanical response of the BCCZ structure is stretch-dominated, i.e., the mechanical strengths are directly dependent on the strengths of the vertical beams. As the geometric defects of vertical beams are slightly changed based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate, the mechanical strengths are less dispersed. The manufacturing parameters are less influenced on the mechanical strengths of the structure BCCZ. The mechanical response of the BCC structure is bending-dominated. The geometric defects of inclined beam are highly dispersed within a structure and also based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate. For different position/orientation on the substrate, the mechanical responses are highly dispersed as well. This shows that the mechanical strengths are directly impacted by manufacturing parameters. In addition, this work is carried out to study the uncertainty propagation of the geometric defects on the mechanical strength of the BCC lattice structure made of Scalmalloy. To do that, we observe the distribution of mechanical strengths of the lattice according to the distribution of the geometric defects. A probability density law is determined based on a statistical hypothesis corresponding to the geometric defects of the inclined beams. The samples of inclined beams are then randomly drawn from the density law to build the lattice structure samples. The lattice samples are then used for simulation to characterize the mechanical strengths. The results reveal that the distribution of mechanical strengths of the structures with the same manufacturing parameters is less dispersed than one of the structures with different manufacturing parameters. Nevertheless, the dispersion of mechanical strengths due to the structures with the same manufacturing parameters are unneglectable.

Keywords: geometric defects, lattice structure, mechanical strength, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Behnaz Jamshidi, Seyed Hassan Hashemabadi

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The main objective of this study is to investigate on pigging operation of two phase flow pipeline and compare the empirical and simulation results for 108 km long , 0.7934 mm (32 inches) diameter sea line of "Phase 1 South Pars Gas Complex", located in south of Iran. The pigging time, pig velocity, the amount of slug and slug catcher pressure were calculated and monitored closely as the key parameters. Simulation was done by "OLGA" dynamic simulation software and obtained results were compared and validated with empirical data in real operation. The relative errors between empirical data and simulation of the process were 3 % and 9 % for pigging time and accumulated slug volume respectively. Simulated pig velocity and changes of slug catcher pressure were consistent with real values, too. It was also found the slug catcher and condensate stabilization units have been adequately sized for gas-liquid separation and handle the slug batch during transient conditions such as pigging and start up.

Keywords: sea line, pigging, slug catcher, two-phase flow, dynamic simulation

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Authors: Pawan S. Nagda, Purnank S. Bhatt, Mit K. Shah

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Earing defect in drawing process is highly undesirable not only because it adds on an additional trimming operation but also because the uneven material flow demands extra care. The objective of this work is to study the earing problem in the Deep Drawing of circular cup and to optimize the blank shape to reduce the earing. A finite element model is developed for 3-D numerical simulation of cup forming process in ABAQUS. Extra-deep-drawing (EDD) steel sheet has been used for simulation. Properties and tool design parameters were used as input for simulation. Earing was observed in the simulated cup and it was measured at various angles with respect to rolling direction. To reduce the earing defect initial blank shape was modified with the help of anisotropy coefficient. Modified blanks showed notable reduction in earing.

Keywords: anisotropy, deep drawing, earing, finite element simulation

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Dejin Chen, Bin Lin, Xiaohui LI, Haobin Tian

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In order to acquire stable impact performance of cover, the factors influencing the impact force of the cover were analyzed and researched. The influence of impact factors such as impact velocity, impact weight and fillet radius of warhead was studied by Orthogonal experiment. Through the range analysis and numerical simulation, the results show that the impact velocity has significant influences on impact force of cover. The impact force decreases with the increase of impact velocity and impact weight. The test results are similar to the numerical simulation. The cover broke up into four parts along the groove.

Keywords: fragile cover, numerical simulation, impact force, epoxy foam

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Authors: Monish Sengupta, Benjamin Heydecker, Daniel Woodland

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New train control systems rely mainly on Automatic Train Protection (ATP) and Automatic Train Operation (ATO) dynamically to control the speed and hence performance. The ATP and the ATO form the vital element within the CBTC (Communication Based Train Control) and within the ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) system architectures. Reliable and accurate measurement of train location, speed and acceleration are vital to the operation of train control systems. In the past, all CBTC and ERTMS system have deployed a balise or equivalent to correct the uncertainty element of the train location. Typically a CBTC train is allowed to miss only one balise on the track, after which the Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system applies emergency brake to halt the service. This is because the location uncertainty, which grows within the train control system, cannot tolerate missing more than one balise. Balises contribute a significant amount towards wayside maintenance and studies have shown that balises on the track also forms a constraint for future track layout change and change in speed profile.This paper investigates the causes of the location uncertainty that is currently experienced and considers whether it is possible to identify an effective filter to ascertain, in conjunction with appropriate sensors, more accurate speed, distance and location for a CBTC driven train without the need of any external balises. An appropriate sensor fusion algorithm and intelligent sensor selection methodology will be deployed to ascertain the railway location and speed measurement at its highest precision. Similar techniques are already in use in aviation, satellite, submarine and other navigation systems. Developing a model for the speed control and the use of Kalman filter is a key element in this research. This paper will summarize the research undertaken and its significant findings, highlighting the potential for introducing alternative approaches to train positioning that would enable removal of all trackside location correction balises, leading to huge reduction in maintenances and more flexibility in future track design.

Keywords: ERTMS, CBTC, ATP, ATO

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Authors: Aniruddha Joshi

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This paper discusses a simulation study of automated sand casting production system. Therefore, the first aims of this study is development of automated sand casting process model and analyze this model with a simulation software Witness. Production methodology aims to improve overall productivity through elimination of wastes and that leads to improve quality. Integration of automation with Simulation is beneficial to identify the obstacles in implementation and to take appropriate options to implement successfully. For this integration, there are different Simulation Software’s. To study this integration, with the help of “WITNESS” Simulation Software the model is created. This model is based on literature review. The input parameters are Setup Time, Number of machines, cycle time and output parameter is number of castings, avg, and time and percentage usage of machines. Obtained results are used for Statistical Analysis. This analysis concludes the optimal solution to get maximum output.

Keywords: automated sand casting production system, simulation, WITNESS software, performance evaluation

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Authors: Riku Hayashida, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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This paper provides a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. Underwater robots are expected to be used for various work assignments. The large variety of applications of underwater robots motivates researchers to develop control systems and technologies for underwater robots. Several control methods have been proposed so far for the stabilization of nominal system model of underwater robots with no parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainties are considered to be obstacles in implementation of the such nominal control methods for underwater robots. The objective of this study is to establish a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: robust control, stabilization method, underwater robot, parameter uncertainty

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Authors: Kai Zhang, Xi Jiang

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Effect of fuel variabilities on premixed combustion of bio-syngas mixtures is of great importance in bio-syngas utilisation. The uncertainties of concentrations of fuel constituents such as H2, CO and CH4 may lead to unpredictable combustion performances, combustion instabilities and hot spots which may deteriorate and damage the combustion hardware. Numerical modelling and simulations can assist in understanding the behaviour of bio-syngas combustion with pre-defined species concentrations, while the evaluation of variabilities of concentrations is expensive. To be more specific, questions such as ‘what is the burning velocity of bio-syngas at specific equivalence ratio?’ have been answered either experimentally or numerically, while questions such as ‘what is the likelihood of burning velocity when precise concentrations of bio-syngas compositions are unknown, but the concentration ranges are pre-described?’ have not yet been answered. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to tackle such questions and assess the effects of fuel compositions. An efficient probabilistic UQ method based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) techniques is employed in this study. The method relies on representing random variables (combustion performances) with orthogonal polynomials such as Legendre or Gaussian polynomials. The constructed PCE via Galerkin Projection provides easy access to global sensitivities such as main, joint and total Sobol indices. In this study, impacts of fuel compositions on combustion (adiabatic flame temperature and laminar flame speed) of bio-syngas fuel mixtures are presented invoking this PCE technique at several equivalence ratios. High-pressure effects on bio-syngas combustion instability are obtained using detailed chemical mechanism - the San Diego Mechanism. Guidance on reducing combustion instability from upstream biomass gasification process is provided by quantifying the significant contributions of composition variations to variance of physicochemical properties of bio-syngas combustion. It was found that flame speed is very sensitive to hydrogen variability in bio-syngas, and reducing hydrogen uncertainty from upstream biomass gasification processes can greatly reduce bio-syngas combustion instability. Variation of methane concentration, although thought to be important, has limited impacts on laminar flame instabilities especially for lean combustion. Further studies on the UQ of percentage concentration of hydrogen in bio-syngas can be conducted to guide the safer use of bio-syngas.

Keywords: bio-syngas combustion, clean energy utilisation, fuel variability, PCE, targeted uncertainty reduction, uncertainty quantification

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