Search results for: accounting decision making

Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, risk models, uncertainty, unmanned aircraft systems

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Authors: Sandra Costa-Santos, Nadia Bertolino, Stephen Hicks, Vanessa May, Camilla Lewis

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This paper aims to elaborate the architectural theory on place-making that supported Claremont Court housing scheme (Edinburgh, United Kingdom). Claremont Court (1959-62) is a large post-war mixed development housing scheme designed by Basil Spence, which included ‘place-making’ as one of its founding principles. Although some stylistic readings of the housing scheme have been published, the theory on place-making that allegedly ruled the design has yet to be clarified. The architecture allows us to mark or make a place within space in order to dwell. Under the framework of contemporary philosophical theories of place, this paper aims to explore the relationship between place and dwelling through a cross-disciplinary reading of Claremont Court, with a view to develop an architectural theory on place-making. Since dwelling represents the way we are immersed in our world in an existential manner, this theme is not just relevant for architecture but also for philosophy and sociology. The research in this work is interpretive-historic in nature. It examines documentary evidence of the original architectural design, together with relevant literature in sociology, history, and architecture, through the lens of theories of place. First, the paper explores how the dwelling types originally included in Claremont Court supported ideas of dwelling or meanings of home. Then, it traces shared space and social ties in order to study the symbolic boundaries that allow the creation of a collective identity or sense of belonging. Finally, the relation between the housing scheme and the supporting theory is identified. The findings of this research reveal Scottish architect Basil Spence’s exploration of the meaning of home, as he changed his approach to the mass housing while acting as President of the Royal Incorporation of British Architects (1958-60). When the British Government was engaged in various ambitious building programmes, he sought to drive architecture to a wider socio-political debate as president of the RIBA, hence moving towards a more ambitious and innovative socio-architectural approach. Rather than trying to address the ‘genius loci’ with an architectural proposition, as has been stated, the research shows that the place-making theory behind the housing scheme was supported by notions of community-based on shared space and dispositions. The design of the housing scheme was steered by a desire to foster social relations and collective identities, rather than by the idea of keeping the spirit of the place. This research is part of a cross-disciplinary project funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council. The findings present Claremont Court as a signifier of Basil Spence’s attempt to address the post-war political debate on housing in United Kingdom. They highlight the architect’s theoretical agenda and challenge current purely stylistic readings of Claremont Court as they fail to acknowledge its social relevance.

Keywords: architectural theory, dwelling, place-making, post-war housing

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Authors: Eugene Y. C. Wong, Henry Y. K. Lau, Mardjuki Raman

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CO2 emissions from maritime transport operations represent a substantial part of the total greenhouse gas emission. Vessels are designed with better energy efficiency. Minimizing CO2 emission in maritime operations plays an important role in supply chain decarbonisation. This paper reviews the initiatives on slow steaming operations towards the reduction of carbon emission. It investigates the relationship and impact among slow steaming cost reduction, carbon emission reduction, and shipment delay. A scenario-based cost-driven decision support model is developed to facilitate the selection of the optimal slow steaming options, considering the cost on bunker fuel consumption, available speed, carbon emission, and shipment delay. The incorporation of the social cost of cargo is reviewed and suggested. Additional measures on the effect of vessels sizes, routing, and type of fuels towards decarbonisation are discussed.

Keywords: slow steaming, carbon emission, maritime logistics, sustainability, green supply chain

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Authors: De Castro-Pardo M., Cabello J. M., Martin J. M., Ruiz F.

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In this paper, we propose a new Water Sustainability Indicator based on a Multi-Reference methodology that permits modeling compensation between the analysed criteria and provides a participative approach. The proposed indicator provides results based on 19 variables grouped into 5 dimensions: availability, access, resilience, good governance and economic capacity. The indicator was applied to assess water sustainability in 27 European countries. The results showed that Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom obtained the best global results in terms of weak water (compensatory) sustainability. In terms of strong water (non-compensatory) sustainability, no country gained acceptable results in terms of strong sustainability. Climate change and the state of freshwater resources were detected as especially vulnerable in all the analysed countries. The results identified some eastern European countries with low GDP and good performance of availability and cost of water, with bad results in terms of governance and water productivity. These results could jeopardize water sustainability in the event of a potential economic development if these limitations are not addressed. In a context of economic and political instability due to the current armed conflict in nearby countries such as Ukraine, it is especially important to pay attention to these countries, whose good governance indicators could worsen even more. The proposed indicator allowed to the identification of warning signs and could contribute to the improvement in decision-making processes. Moreover, it could improve the monitoring of international water policies.

Keywords: water sustainability, composite indicators, compensatory approach, sustainability European policies

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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Authors: Andrew Enaifoghe

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The study examined the role of public management development in enhancing public service delivery in the South African local government. The study believes that the ultimate empowerment of the third tier sphere of governments in South Africa remains the instrument required to enhance both national and continental development. This over the year has been overwhelmed with problems and imbalance related to ethical practice, accountability and the functional local government system and the machinery itself. The study finds that imbalances are being strengthened by a lack of understanding and unanimity as to what a public management development in a democratic system is and how it should work to achieve the dividends of democracy in delivering public goods. Studies indicated that the magnitudes are widespread corruption and misrepresentations of government priorities; both of which weaken the ability of governments to enhance broad-based economic growth and social well-being of the people. This study addressed the problem of public management and accountable local government. The study indicates the need for citizens’ participation in the decision-making process in delivering public service in South Africa and how its accountability mechanism supports good governance. The study concludes that good and ethical watersheds in South Africa have since reached such proportions that social pressure, the pressure from the government and various institutions have to re-consider where they stand regarding ethics, ethical behaviour, accountability and professionalism in delivering public goods to the people at the local municipal government.

Keywords: accountability, development, democratic system, South Africa

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Authors: Tracey Estriplet-Adams

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This paper focuses on the influence of maternal-fetal bonding by examining attachment theory, psycho-social-cultural influences/adaptations, and maternal well-being. A systematic review methodology was used to synthesize research results to summarize current evidence that can contribute to evidence-based practices. It explores the relationship between attachment styles, prenatal attachment, and perceptions of maternal-infant bonding/attachment six weeks postpartum. It also examines the protective factors of maternal-fetal attachment development. The research explores Bowlby's attachment theory and its relevance to maternal-fetal bonding with a Black Feminist Theory lens. Additionally, it discusses the impact of perceived stress, social support, and ecological models on maternal-fetal attachment. The relationship between maternal well-being, maternal-fetal attachment, and early postpartum bonding is reviewed. Moreover, the paper specifically addresses black mothers and maternal-fetal bonding, exploring the intersectionality of race, ethnicity, class, geographic location, cultural identities, and immigration status. It considers the role of familial and partner support, as well as the relationship between maternal attachment style and maternal-fetal bonding, within the framework of attachment theory and black feminist theory. Therefore, it is imperative to center Black women's voices in research, policy, and healthcare practices. Black women are experts in their own experiences and advocate for their autonomy in decision-making regarding maternal-fetal health. By amplifying their voices, we can ensure that interventions are grounded in their lived experiences.

Keywords: maternal-fetal bonding, infant well-being, maternal-infant attachment, black mothers

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Authors: Maria A. Castillo H., Andres R. Leandro, Jose F. Bienvenido B.

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During the last 20 years, the globalization of economies, population growth, and the increase in the consumption of fresh agricultural products have generated greater demand for ornamentals, flowers, fresh fruits, and vegetables, mainly from tropical areas. This market situation has demanded greater competitiveness and control over production, with more efficient protected agriculture technologies, which provide greater productivity and allow us to guarantee the quality and quantity that is required in a constant and sustainable way. Guatemala, located in the north of Central America, is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products in the region and exports fresh vegetables, flowers, fruits, ornamental plants, and foliage, most of which were grown in greenhouses. Although there are no official agricultural statistics on greenhouse production, several thesis works, and congress reports have presented consistent estimates. A wide range of protection structures and roofing materials are used, from the most basic and simple ones for rain control to highly technical and automated structures connected with remote sensors for monitoring and control of crops. With this breadth of technological models, it is necessary to analyze georeferenced data related to the cultivated area, to the different existing models, and to the covering materials, integrated with altitude, climate, and soil data. The georeferenced registration of the production units, the data collection with digital tools, the use of satellite images, and geographic information systems (GIS) provide reliable tools to elaborate more complete, agile, and dynamic information maps. This study details a methodology proposed for gathering georeferenced data of high protection structures (greenhouses) in Guatemala, structured in four phases: diagnosis of available information, the definition of the geographic frame, selection of satellite images, and integration with an information system geographic (GIS). It especially takes account of the actual lack of complete data in order to obtain a reliable decision-making system; this gap is solved through the proposed methodology. A summary of the results is presented in each phase, and finally, an evaluation with some improvements and tentative recommendations for further research is added. The main contribution of this study is to propose a methodology that allows to reduce the gap of georeferenced data in protected agriculture in this specific area where data is not generally available and to provide data of better quality, traceability, accuracy, and certainty for the strategic agricultural decision öaking, applicable to other crops, production models and similar/neighboring geographic areas.

Keywords: greenhouses, protected agriculture, GIS, Guatemala, satellite image, digital tools, precision agriculture

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Authors: Maryam Amiri, Ali Rajabzade, Gholam Reza Goudarzi, Reza Heidari

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Growth of technology and environmental changes are so fast and therefore, companies and industries have much tendency to do activities of R&D for active participation in the market and achievement to a competitive advantages. Aviation industry and its subdivisions have high level technology and play a special role in economic and social development of countries. So, in the aviation industry for getting new technologies and competing with other countries aviation industry, there is a requirement for capability in R&D. Considering of appropriate R&D strategy is supportive that day technologies of the world can be achieved. Biofuel technology is one of the newest technologies that has allocated discussion of the world in aviation industry to itself. The purpose of this research has been formulation of R&D strategy of biofuel technology in aviation industry of Iran. After reviewing of the theoretical foundations of the methods and R&D strategies, finally we classified R&D strategies in four main categories as follows: internal R&D, collaboration R&D, out sourcing R&D and in-house R&D. After a review of R&D strategies, a model for formulation of R&D strategy with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran was offered. With regard to the requirements and aracteristics of industry and technology in the model, we presented an integrated approach to R&D. Based on the techniques of decision making and analyzing of structured expert opinion, 4 R&D strategies for different scenarios and with the aim of developing biofuel technology in aviation industry in Iran were recommended. In this research, based on the common features of the implementation process of R&D, a logical classification of these methods are presented as R&D strategies. Then, R&D strategies and their characteristics was developed according to the experts. In the end, we introduced a model to consider the role of aviation industry and biofuel technology in R&D strategies. And lastly, for conditions and various scenarios of the aviation industry, we have formulated a specific R&D strategy.

Keywords: aviation industry, biofuel technology, R&D, R&D strategy

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Authors: Ipek Krom, Nurdan Tumbek Tekeoglu

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In our globalizing world increased competition between cities have resulted in expanding investments in marketing activities. In order to promote tourism and reinvestments, the cities have been using marketing activities to create more attractive sites and make use of their resources more efficiently. In becoming a branded city marketing activities play a major role in building brand value, which in turn results in the attraction of newcomers, revisits, settlements, reinvestments and the development of the city. This paper focuses on the Istanbul brand, which carries an important role in the promotion of Turkey as being its cultural, economic and financial center. As one of the most historical and appealing metropolitans in the world with remains of ancient civilizations, Istanbul has attracted 11 million 843 thousand tourists in 2014. Increasing number of marketing activities developed by numerous actors of private and public sector are among the reasons why tourists prefer Istanbul. Among these reasons we can list the increasing number of hotels, developed infrastructure and better transportation, modern shopping malls, international festivals, exportation of Turkish TV series, gastronomy investments, congress tourism, health tourism, student exchange programs, expatriation opportunities, recreational activities and new tourism destinations. In this paper we explore the marketing activities in Istanbul in order to make the city of the most visited metropolitans in the world. Decision making people in the tourism sector have been interviewed to provide better insight to the addressed topics.

Keywords: brand cities, marketing, tourism in istanbul, tourism marketing

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Authors: Z. Kurtaslan, H. Hakan Okay, E. Can Dönmez, I. Kuçukdoğan

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Music education aims to bring up individuals most appropriately and to advanced levels as a balanced whole physically, cognitively, affectively, and kinesthetically while making a major contribution to the physical and spiritual development of the individual. The most crucial aim of music education, an influential education medium per se, is to make music be loved; yet, among its educational aims are concepts such as affinity, friendship, goodness, philanthropy, responsibility, and respect all extremely crucial bringing up individuals as a balanced whole. One of the most essential assets of the music education is the training of making music together, solidifying musical knowledge and enabling the acquisition of cooperation. This habit requires internalization of values like responsibility, patience, cooperativeness, respect, self-control, friendship, and fairness. If musicians lack these values, the ensemble will become after some certain time a cacophony. In this qualitative research, the attitudes of music teacher candidates in orchestra/chamber music classes will be examined in terms of values.

Keywords: education, music, orchestra/chamber music, values

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Authors: Yi-Fung Lin, Yuan-Mei Liao

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Background: Pain is common among patients with cancer and is also one of the most disturbing symptoms. As this suffering is subjective, if patients proactively participate in their pain self-management, pain could be alleviated effectively. However, not everyone can carry out self-management very well because human behavior is a product of the cognition process. In this process, we can see that "self-efficacy" plays an essential role in affecting human behaviors. Methods: We used the eight steps of concept analysis proposed by Walker and Avant to clarify the concept of “self-efficacy for cancer pain management.” A comprehensive literature review was conducted for relevant publications that were published during the period of 1977 to 2021. We used several keywords, including self-efficacy, self-management, concept analysis, conceptual framework, and cancer pain, to search the following databases: PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Embase. Results: We identified three defining attributes for the concept of self-efficacy for cancer pain management, including pain management abilities, confidence, and continuous pain monitoring, and recognized six skills related to pain management abilities: problem-solving, decision-making, resource utilization, forming partnerships between medical professionals and patients, planning actions, and self-regulation. Five antecedents for the concept of self-efficacy for cancer pain management were identified: pain experience, existing cancer pain, pain-related knowledge, a belief in pain management, and physical/mental state. Consequences related to self-efficacy for cancer pain management were achievement of pain self-management, well pain control, satisfying quality of life, and containing motivation. Conclusions: This analysis provides researchers with a clearer understanding of the concept of “self-efficacy for cancer pain management.” The findings presented here provide a foundation for future research and nursing interventions to enhance self-efficacy for cancer pain management.

Keywords: cancer pain, concept analysis, self-efficacy, self-management

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Authors: Sergio Zabala-Vargas, Miguel Jiménez-Barrera, Luz VArgas-Sánchez

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In recent years, information related to project management in organizations has been increasing exponentially. Performance data, management statistics, indicator results have forced the collection, analysis, traceability, and dissemination of project managers to be essential. In this sense, there are current trends to facilitate efficient decision-making in emerging technology projects, such as: Machine Learning, Data Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data. The latter is the most interesting in this project. This research is part of the thematic line Construction methods and project management. Many authors present the relevance that the use of emerging technologies, such as Big Data, has taken in recent years in project management in the construction sector. The main focus is the optimization of time, scope, budget, and in general mitigating risks. This research was developed in the northeastern region of Colombia-South America. The first phase was aimed at diagnosing the use of emerging technologies (Big-Data) in the construction sector. In Colombia, the construction sector represents more than 50% of the productive system, and more than 2 million people participate in this economic segment. The quantitative approach was used. A survey was applied to a sample of 91 companies in the construction sector. Preliminary results indicate that the use of Big Data and other emerging technologies is very low and also that there is interest in modernizing project management. There is evidence of a correlation between the interest in using new data management technologies and the incorporation of Building Information Modeling BIM. The next phase of the research will allow the generation of guidelines and strategies for the incorporation of technological tools in the construction sector in Colombia.

Keywords: big data, building information modeling, tecnology, project manamegent

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Authors: Lubos Rojka

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The common perception of morally responsible behavior is that it presupposes freedom of choice, and that free decisions and actions are not determined by natural events, but by a person. In other words, the moral agent has the ability and the possibility of doing otherwise when making morally responsible decisions, and natural causal determinism cannot fully account for morally significant freedom. The incompatibility between a person’s morally significant freedom and causal determinism appears to be a natural position. Nevertheless, some of the most influential philosophical theories on moral responsibility are compatibilist or semi-compatibilist, and they exclude the requirement of alternative possibilities, which contradicts the claims of classical incompatibilism. The compatibilists often employ Frankfurt-style thought experiments to prove their theory. The goal of this paper is to examine the role of imaginary Frankfurt-style examples in compatibilist accounts. More specifically, the compatibilist accounts defended by John Martin Fischer and Michael McKenna will be inserted into the broader understanding of a person elaborated by Harry Frankfurt, Robert Kane and Walter Glannon. Deeper analysis reveals that the exclusion of alternative possibilities based on Frankfurt-style examples is problematic and misleading. A more comprehensive account of moral responsibility and morally significant (source) freedom requires higher order complex theories of human will and consciousness, in which rational and self-creative abilities and a real possibility to choose otherwise, at least on some occasions during a lifetime, are necessary. Theoretical moral reasons and their logical relations seem to require a sort of higher-order agent-causal incompatibilism. The ability of theoretical or abstract moral reasoning requires complex (strongly emergent) mental and conscious properties, among which an effective free will, together with first and second-order desires. Such a hierarchical theoretical model unifies reasons-responsiveness, mesh theory and emergentism. It is incompatible with physical causal determinism, because such determinism only allows non-systematic processes that may be hard to predict, but not complex (strongly) emergent systems. An agent’s effective will and conscious reflectivity is the starting point of a morally responsible action, which explains why a decision is 'up to the subject'. A free decision does not always have a complete causal history. This kind of an emergentist source hyper-incompatibilism seems to be the best direction of the search for an adequate explanation of moral responsibility in the traditional (merit-based) sense. Physical causal determinism as a universal theory would exclude morally significant freedom and responsibility in the traditional sense because it would exclude the emergence of and supervenience by the essential complex properties of human consciousness.

Keywords: consciousness, free will, determinism, emergence, moral responsibility

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Authors: Ian Campbell, Gillian Mitchell, Paul James, Na Li, Ella Thompson

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The genetic cause of the majority of multiple-case breast cancer families remains unresolved. Next generation sequencing has emerged as an efficient strategy for identifying predisposing mutations in individuals with inherited cancer. We are conducting whole exome sequence analysis of germ line DNA from multiple affected relatives from breast cancer families, with the aim of identifying rare protein truncating and non-synonymous variants that are likely to include novel cancer predisposing mutations. Data from more than 200 exomes show that on average each individual carries 30-50 protein truncating mutations and 300-400 rare non-synonymous variants. Heterogeneity among our exome data strongly suggest that numerous moderate penetrance genes remain to be discovered, with each gene individually accounting for only a small fraction of families (~0.5%). This scenario marks validation of candidate breast cancer predisposing genes in large case-control studies as the rate-limiting step in resolving the missing heritability of breast cancer. The aim of this study is to screen genes that are recurrently mutated among our exome data in a larger cohort of cases and controls to assess the prevalence of inactivating mutations that may be associated with breast cancer risk. We are using the Agilent HaloPlex Target Enrichment System to screen the coding regions of 168 genes in 1,000 BRCA1/2 mutation-negative familial breast cancer cases and 1,000 cancer-naive controls. To date, our interim analysis has identified 21 genes which carry an excess of truncating mutations in multiple breast cancer families versus controls. Established breast cancer susceptibility gene PALB2 is the most frequently mutated gene (13/998 cases versus 0/1009 controls), but other interesting candidates include NPSR1, GSN, POLD2, and TOX3. These and other genes are being validated in a second cohort of 1,000 cases and controls. Our experience demonstrates that beyond PALB2, the prevalence of mutations in the remaining breast cancer predisposition genes is likely to be very low making definitive validation exceptionally challenging.

Keywords: predisposition, familial, exome sequencing, breast cancer

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Authors: Ghanim A. Bekr

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Project success is what must be done for the project to be acceptable to the client, stakeholders and end-users who will be affected by the project. The study of project success and the critical success factors (CSFs) are the means adopted to improve the effectiveness of project. This research is conducted to make an attempt to identify which variables influence the success of project implementation. This study has selected, through an extensive literature review and interviews, (83) factors categorized in (7) groups that the questionnaire respondents were asked to score. The responses from 66 professionals with an average of 15 years of experience in different types of construction projects in Jordan were collected and analyzed using SPSS and most important factors for success for various success criteria are presented depending on the relative importance index to rank the categories. The research revealed the significant groups of factors are: Client related factors, Contractor’s related factors, Project Manager (PM) related factors, and Project management related factors. In addition the top ten sub factors are: Assertion of the client towards short time of the project, availability of skilled labor, Assertion of the client towards high level of the quality, capability of the client in taking risk, previous experience of the PM in similar projects, previous experience of the contractor in similar projects, decision making by the client/ the client’s representative at the right time, assertion of client towards low cost of project, experience in project management in previous projects, and flow of the information among parties. The results would be helpful to construction project professionals in taking proactive measures for successful completion of construction projects in Jordan.

Keywords: construction projects, critical success factors, Jordan, project success

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Authors: A. Arjomand Kermani, N. Charbgoo, M. Alalhesabi

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In the situation of great acceleration of changes and the need for new developments in the cities on one hand and conservation and regeneration approaches on the other hand, place identity and its relation with heritage context have taken on new importance. This relation is generally mutual and complex one. The significant point in this relation is that the process of identifying something as heritage rather than just historical  phenomena, brings that which may be inherited into the realm of identity. In planning and urban design as well as environmental psychology and phenomenology domain, place identity and its attributes and components were studied and discussed. However, the relation between physical environment (especially heritage) and identity has been neglected in the planning literature. This article aims to review the knowledge on this field and develop a model on the influence and relation of these two major concepts (heritage and identity). To build this conceptual model, we draw on available literature in environmental psychology as well as planning on place identity and heritage environment using a descriptive-analytical methodology to understand how they can inform the planning strategies and governance policies. A cross-disciplinary analysis is essential to understand the nature of place identity and heritage context and develop a more holistic model of their relationship in order to be employed in planning process and decision making. Moreover, this broader and more holistic perspective would enable both social scientists and planners to learn from one another’s expertise for a fuller understanding of community dynamics. The result indicates that a combination of these perspectives can provide a richer understanding—not only of how planning impacts our experience of place, but also how place identity can impact community planning and development.

Keywords: heritage, inter-disciplinary study, place identity, planning

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Mark Harmon, Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Patrick Lucey, Diego Klabjan

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In this paper, we predict the likelihood of a player making a shot in basketball from multiagent trajectories. Previous approaches to similar problems center on hand-crafting features to capture domain-specific knowledge. Although intuitive, recent work in deep learning has shown, this approach is prone to missing important predictive features. To circumvent this issue, we present a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach where we initially represent the multiagent behavior as an image. To encode the adversarial nature of basketball, we use a multichannel image which we then feed into a CNN. Additionally, to capture the temporal aspect of the trajectories, we use “fading.” We find that this approach is superior to a traditional FFN model. By using gradient ascent, we were able to discover what the CNN filters look for during training. Last, we find that a combined FFN+CNN is the best performing network with an error rate of 39%.

Keywords: basketball, computer vision, image processing, convolutional neural network

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Authors: C. K. Kishore Kumar, B. P. Aruna

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We have made an attempt to analyze the role of sports in the contemporary society. This paper critically analyses how developed as well as developing countries spend huge amount of money every year in conducting various sports and games, development of sports infrastructure, manufacturing of sports equipment and get into bidding to organize international events like Olympic, World Cup games like foot ball, soccer, tennis etc., Throughout the world, Sports and Commerce have joined together. Sports in today’s world has become a large profit making industry. An attempt is further made to understand that the players or sports persons are only a small part of this huge industry, more than the players, there are various other people, corporations, Nation as a whole who are making huge profits from the sports industry. This industrialization has indeed changed the whole scenario of sports. Top level sports are purely a business nowadays and so fans are sucked into believing they are part of their club. In reality they are merely cash cows to be milked by a greedy, grasping and corrupt business that cares nothing but making money. In no previous time period have we seen the type of growth in the commercialization of sports that we have seen in the last 3 decades. Athletes are leveled with prize money and/or appearances fees so much so, that injuries may be ignored, educational opportunities are put aside in the quest for success which is ultimately money. Industrialization and commercialization of sports has taken a key role in the economic development of the country. The purpose of this paper is to explore as to how sports once considered as a leisure time activity has become an activity for money and in turn has taken a lead role in the economic development of a country.

Keywords: contemporary society, economic development, industrialization of sports, commercialization of sports, leisure time activity

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Authors: Evangelia-Chrysanthi Kouklari, Stella Tsermentseli, Claire P. Monks

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Executive function (EF) refers to a set of future-oriented and goal-directed cognitive skills that are crucial for problem solving and social behaviour, as well as the ability to organise oneself. It has been suggested that EF could be conceptualised as two distinct but interrelated constructs, one emotional (hot) and one cognitive (cool), as it facilitates both affective and cognitive regulation. Cool EF has been found to be strongly related to Theory of Mind (ToM) that is the ability to infer mental states, but research has not taken into account the association between hot EF and ToM in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) to date. The present study investigates the associations between both hot and cool EF and ToM in school-aged children with ASD. This cross-sectional study assesses 79 school-aged children with ASD (7-15 years) and 91 controls matched for age and IQ, on tasks tapping cool EF (working memory, inhibition, planning), hot EF (effective decision making, delay discounting), and ToM (emotional understanding and false/no false belief). Significant group differences in each EF measure support a global executive dysfunction in ASD. Strong associations between hot EF and ToM in ASD are reported for the first time (i.e. ToM emotional understanding and delay discounting). These findings highlight that hot EF also makes a unique contribution to the developmental profile of ASD. Considering the role of both hot and cool EF in association with ToM in individuals with ASD may aid in gaining a greater understanding not just of how these complex multifaceted cognitive abilities relate to one another, but their joint role in the distinct developmental pathway followed in ASD.

Keywords: ASD, executive function, school age, theory of mind

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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A cutting-edge online knowledge mediation system called "ePLANETe" provides a framework for building knowledge, tools and methods for all education, research and sustainable practices and elsewhere, as well as the deliberative assessment support of sustainability, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement issues of the territorial development sector, e.g., agriculture.The purpose is to present, as sectorial and institutional perception, the 'ePLANETe' concept and functionalities as an experimental online platform for contributing the sustainability assessment, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement. In the upshot, the concept of 'ePLANETe'isan investigation of the challenges of "online things, technology and application". The new digital technologies are exploited to facilitate collaborative technology and application to territorial development issues, e.g., agriculture. In order to investigate the dealing capacity (Qualitative and Quantitative) of sustainability, biodiversity, and stakeholder involvement of the agriculture sector through the stakeholder-based integrated assessment "Deliberation Support Tools (DST) and INTEGRAAL method" of collective resources. Specifically, this paper focuses on integrating system methodologies with deliberation tools for collective assessment and decision-making in implementing regional plans of agriculture. The aim of this report is to identify effective knowledge and tools and to enable deliberation methodologies regarding practices on the sustainability of agriculture and biodiversity issues, societal responsibilities, and regional planning that will create the scope for qualitative and quantitative assessments of sustainability as a new landmark of the agriculture sector.

Keywords: sustainability, biodiversity, stakeholder, dst, integraal

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Authors: Koutsopoulou Ioanna, Gkintoni Evgenia, Halkiopoulos Constantinos, Antonopoulou Hera

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Recent advances in Internet Computer Technology (ICT) and the ever-increasing use of technological equipment amongst adolescents and young adults along with unattended access to the internet and social media and uncontrolled use of smart phones and PCs have caused social problems like sexting to emerge. The main purpose of the present article is first to present an analytic theoretical framework of sexting as a recent social phenomenon based on studies that have been conducted the last decade or so; and second to investigate Greek students’ and also social network users, sexting perceptions and to record how often social media users exchange sexual messages and to retrace demographic variables predictors. Data from 1,000 students were collected and analyzed and all statistical analysis was done by the software package WEKA. The results indicate among others, that the use of data mining methods is an important tool to draw conclusions that could affect decision and policy making especially in the field and related social topics of educational psychology. To sum up, sexting lurks many risks for adolescents and young adults students in Greece and needs to be better addressed in relevance to the stakeholders as well as society in general. Furthermore, policy makers, legislation makers and authorities will have to take action to protect minors. Prevention strategies based on Greek cultural specificities are being proposed. This social problem has raised concerns in recent years and will most likely escalate concerns in global communities in the future.

Keywords: educational ethics, sexting, Greek sexters, sex education, data mining

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Authors: H. Jalahi, A. Yazdanpanah Nozari

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Background and Purpose: Assessment of learners’ performance is an important factors in teaching-learning process. When a factor is sensitive and has high influence on life, their assessment should be done precisely. Thinking dispositions are very important factors in medical education because of its specific condition. In this study a model is designed for fostering thinking dispositions of learners in which authentic assessment is an important element. Materials and Methods: Objective based research is developmental, and such a model was not designed for curricula. Data collection and comparing approaches about assessment and analyzing current assessments offered applied proposals. Results: Based on research findings, the current assessments are response-based, that is students instead of product of response, only offers the specific response which the teachers expects; but authentic assessment is a form of assessment in which students are asked to perform real-word tasks that demonstrate meaningful application of essential knowledge and skills. Conclusion: Because of the difficulties and unexpected problems in life and individuals needs to lifelong learning and conditions in medical course that require decision making in specific times, we must pay attention to reach thinking dispositions and it should be included in curriculum. Authentic assessment as an important aspect of curriculum can help fostering thinking dispositions of learners. Using this kind of assessments which focus on application of information and skills to solve real-word tasks have more important role in medical courses.

Keywords: assessment, authentic, medical courses, developmental

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Elena Kokkoni, Prasanna Kannappan, Ashkan Zehfroosh, Effrosyni Mavroudi, Kristina Strother-Garcia, James C. Galloway, Jeffrey Heinz, Rene Vidal, Herbert G. Tanner

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Early immobility affects the motor, cognitive, and social development. Current pediatric rehabilitation lacks the technology that will provide the dosage needed to promote mobility for young children at risk. The addition of socially assistive robots in early interventions may help increase the mobility dosage. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of an early intervention paradigm where non-walking infants experience independent mobility while socially interacting with robots. A dynamic environment is developed where both the child and the robot interact and learn from each other. The environment involves: 1) a range of physical activities that are goal-oriented, age-appropriate, and ability-matched for the child to perform, 2) the automatic functions that perceive the child’s actions through novel activity recognition algorithms, and decide appropriate actions for the robot, and 3) a networked visual data acquisition system that enables real-time assessment and provides the means to connect child behavior with robot decision-making in real-time. The environment was tested by bringing a two-year old boy with Down syndrome for eight sessions. The child presented delays throughout his motor development with the current being on the acquisition of walking. During the sessions, the child performed physical activities that required complex motor actions (e.g. climbing an inclined platform and/or staircase). During these activities, a (wheeled or humanoid) robot was either performing the action or was at its end point 'signaling' for interaction. From these sessions, information was gathered to develop algorithms to automate the perception of activities which the robot bases its actions on. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) is used to model the intentions of the child. A 'smoothing' technique is used to help identify the model’s parameters which are a critical step when dealing with small data sets such in this paradigm. The child engaged in all activities and socially interacted with the robot across sessions. With time, the child’s mobility was increased, and the frequency and duration of complex and independent motor actions were also increased (e.g. taking independent steps). Simulation results on the combination of the MDP and smoothing support the use of this model in human-robot interaction. Smoothing facilitates learning MDP parameters from small data sets. This paradigm is feasible and provides an insight on how social interaction may elicit mobility actions suggesting a new early intervention paradigm for very young children with motor disabilities. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by NIH under grant #5R01HD87133.

Keywords: activity recognition, human-robot interaction, machine learning, pediatric rehabilitation

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Authors: Omar Qaftan

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Earthquakes can cause tremendous loss of human life and can result in severe damage to a several of civil engineering structures especially the tall buildings. The response of a multistory structure subjected to earthquake loading is a complex task, and it requires to be studied by physical and numerical modelling. For many circumstances, the scale models on shaking table may be a more economical option than the similar full-scale tests. A shaking table apparatus is a powerful tool that offers a possibility of understanding the actual behaviour of structural systems under earthquake loading. It is required to use a set of scaling relations to predict the behaviour of the full-scale structure. Selecting the scale factors is the most important steps in the simulation of the prototype into the scaled model. In this paper, the principles of scaling modelling procedure are explained in details, and the simulation of scaled multi-storey concrete structure for dynamic studies is investigated. A procedure for a complete dynamic simulation analysis is investigated experimentally and numerically with a scale factor of 1/50. The frequency domain accounting and lateral displacement for both numerical and experimental scaled models are determined. The procedure allows accounting for the actual dynamic behave of actual size porotype structure and scaled model. The procedure is adapted to determine the effects of the tall multi-storey structure on a raft foundation. Four generated accelerograms were used as inputs for the time history motions which are in complying with EC8. The output results of experimental works expressed regarding displacements and accelerations are compared with those obtained from a conventional fixed-base numerical model. Four-time history was applied in both experimental and numerical models, and they concluded that the experimental has an acceptable output accuracy in compare with the numerical model output. Therefore this modelling methodology is valid and qualified for different shaking table experiments tests.

Keywords: structure, raft, soil, interaction

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Authors: I. Pina, M. Painho

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Increased knowledge about the nature of place and the conditions under which space becomes place is a key factor for better urban planning and place-making. Although there is a broad consensus on the relevance of this knowledge, difficulties remain in relating the theoretical framework about place and urban management. Issues related to representation of places are among the greatest obstacles to overcome this gap. With this critical discussion, based on literature review, we intended to explore, in a common framework for geographical analysis, the potential of stories to spell out place meanings, bringing together qualitative text analysis and text mining in order to capture and represent the singularity contained in each person's life history, and the patterns of social processes that shape places. The development of this reasoning is based on the extensive geographical thought about place, and in the theoretical advances in the field of Geographic Information Science (GISc).

Keywords: discourse analysis, geographic information science place, place-making, stories

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Authors: A. Baviskar, C. Sandeep, K. Shankar

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Solving Multi-objective Optimization Problems requires faster convergence and better spread. Though existing Evolutionary Algorithms (EA's) are able to achieve this, the computation effort can further be reduced by hybridizing them with innovative strategies. This study is focuses on converging to the pareto front faster while adapting the advantages of Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm-II (SPEA-II) for a better spread. Two different approaches based on optimizing the objective functions independently are implemented. In the first method, the decision variables corresponding to the optima of individual objective functions are strategically used to guide the search towards the pareto front. In the second method, boundary points of the pareto front are calculated and their decision variables are seeded to the initial population. Both the methods are applied to different constrained and unconstrained multi-objective test functions. It is observed that proposed guided search based algorithm gives better convergence and diversity than several well-known existing algorithms (such as NSGA-II and SPEA-II) in considerably less number of iterations.

Keywords: boundary points, evolutionary algorithms (EA's), guided search, strength pareto evolutionary algorithm-II (SPEA-II)

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Authors: J. Suneetha, Vijayalaxmi

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Sequential Pattern Mining involves applying data mining methods to large data repositories to extract usage patterns. Sequential pattern mining methodologies used to analyze the data and identify patterns. The patterns have been used to implement efficient systems can recommend on previously observed patterns, in making predictions, improve usability of systems, detecting events, and in general help in making strategic product decisions. In this paper, identified performance of approximate sequential pattern mining defines as identifying patterns approximately shared with many sequences. Approximate sequential patterns can effectively summarize and represent the databases by identifying the underlying trends in the data. Conducting an extensive and systematic performance over synthetic and real data. The results demonstrate that ApproxMAP effective and scalable in mining large sequences databases with long patterns.

Keywords: multiple data, performance analysis, sequential pattern, sequence database scalability

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Authors: Matthew Yeager, Christopher Willy, John Bischoff

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The conceptualization and design phases of a system lifecycle consume a significant amount of the lifecycle budget in the form of direct tasking and capital, as well as the implicit costs associated with unforeseeable design errors that are only realized during downstream phases. Ad hoc or iterative approaches to generating system requirements oftentimes fail to consider the full array of feasible systems or product designs for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to: initial conceptualization that oftentimes incorporates a priori or legacy features; the inability to capture, communicate and accommodate stakeholder preferences; inadequate technical designs and/or feasibility studies; and locally-, but not globally-, optimized subsystems and components. These design pitfalls can beget unanticipated developmental or system alterations with added costs, risks and support activities, heightening the risk for suboptimal system performance, premature obsolescence or forgone development. Supported by rapid advances in learning algorithms and hardware technology, sensors and sensor systems have become commonplace in both commercial and industrial products. The evolving array of hardware components (i.e. sensors, CPUs, modular / auxiliary access, etc…) as well as recognition, data fusion and communication protocols have all become increasingly complex and critical for design engineers during both concpetualization and implementation. This work seeks to develop and utilize a non-deterministic approach for sensor system design within the multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) paradigm, a technique that incorporates decision theory into model-based techniques in order to explore complex design environments and discover better system designs. Developed to address the inherent design constraints in complex aerospace systems, MATE techniques enable project engineers to examine all viable system designs, assess attribute utility and system performance, and better align with stakeholder requirements. Whereas such previous work has been focused on aerospace systems and conducted in a deterministic fashion, this study addresses a wider array of system design elements by incorporating both traditional tradespace elements (e.g. hardware components) as well as popular multi-sensor data fusion models and techniques. Furthermore, statistical performance features to this model-based MATE approach will enable non-deterministic techniques for various commercial systems that range in application, complexity and system behavior, demonstrating a significant utility within the realm of formal systems decision-making.

Keywords: multi-attribute tradespace exploration, data fusion, sensors, systems engineering, system design

Procedia PDF Downloads 165