Search results for: median models

Authors: Bediru Abamecha

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Background: Domestic violence is a global problem that occurs regardless of culture, ethnicity or socio-economic class. It is known to be responsible for numerous hospital visits undertaken by women. Violence on pregnant women is a health and social problem that poses particular risks to the woman and her unborn child. Objective: The Objective of this study will be to assess prevalence of domestic violence and its correalates among pregnant women in Manna Woreda of Jimma Zone. Methods: Simple Random Sampling technique will be used to select 12 kebeles (48% of the study area) and Systematic Sampling will be used to reach to the house hold in selected kebeles in manna woreda of Jimma zone, south west Ethiopia from february 15-25, 2011. An in-depth interview will be conducted on Women affairs, police office and Nurses working and minimum of 4FGD with 6-8 members on pregnant women and selected male from the community. SPSS version 16.0 will be used to enter, clean and analyze the data. Descriptive statistics such as mean or median for continuous variables and percent for categorical variables will be made. Bivariate analysis will be used to check the association between independent variables and domestic violence. Variables found to have association with domestic violence will be entered to multiple logistic regressions for controlling the possible effect of confounders and finally the variables which had significance association will be identified on basis of OR, with 95% CI. All statistical significance will be considered at p<0.05. The qualitative data will be summarized manually and thematic analysis will be performed and finally both will be triangulated.

Keywords: ante natal care, ethiopian demographic and health survey, domestic violence, statistical package for social science

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Authors: C. J. Coetzee, E. Horn

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One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out

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Authors: Stewart A. Keir, Faik A. Hamad

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This study aims to use both analytical and experimental methods of analysis to examine the accuracy of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models that can then be used for more complex analyses, accurately representing more elaborate flow phenomena such as internal shockwaves and boundary layers. The geometry used in the analytical study and CFD model is taken from the experimental rig. The analytical study is undertaken using isentropic and adiabatic relationships and the output of the analytical study, the 'shockwave location tool', is created. The results from the analytical study are then used to optimize the redesign an experimental rig for more favorable placement of pressure taps and gain a much better representation of the shockwaves occurring in the divergent section of the nozzle. The CFD model is then optimized through the selection of different parameters, e.g. turbulence models (Spalart-Almaras, Realizable k-epsilon & Standard k-omega) in order to develop an accurate, robust model. The results from the CFD model can then be directly compared to experimental and analytical results in order to gauge the accuracy of each method of analysis. The CFD model will be used to visualize the variation of various parameters such as velocity/Mach number, pressure and turbulence across the shock. The CFD results will be used to investigate the interaction between the shock wave and the boundary layer. The validated model can then be used to modify the nozzle designs which may offer better performance and ease of manufacture and may present feasible improvements to existing high-speed flow applications.

Keywords: CFD, nozzle, fluent, gas dynamics, shock-wave

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Authors: Anna Lytvynova

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This essay presents labour as a performatively national phenomenon from a cultural perspective. Considering Engels’ proposition of labour as the epicentre of development of social structures and communities, it theorizes the formation and sustainment of group identities through labour identities. Taking labour in the cultural sector as the starting point case study, the essay further enunciates such labour and labour identity as a form of engaged citizenship. In doing so, this piece hopes to arrive at a potential contemporary understanding of labour as having a central and dynamic role in cultural organization and citizenship. A parallel goal is to de-link sociological models of cultural labor from narratives of art and culture as something that stands separate from the 'real world' and the economy and exists in precarity. Combining discourse from cultural sociology, performance studies, and economics and grounding it in historical archive, the essay makes a primarily discursive theoretical contribution. Taking North American theatre organizations as the exemplifying starting point, this project positions cultural workers not solely as workers in a professional industry but as active citizen-subjects who are deeply involved in their society’s democratic processes. The resulting discourse can be used to shape more effective labour policies, as well as help art and cultural organizations find more effective organizational structures to engage the arts in the economic, political, and social spheres.

Keywords: arts labour, cultural sociology, national identity, performativity

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Authors: Ahmad Saadiq, Neeraj Sahu

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Sediment, which comprises of solid particles of mineral and organic material are transported by water. In river systems, the amount of sediment transported is controlled by both the transport capacity of the flow and the supply of sediment. The transport of sediment in rivers is important with respect to pollution, channel navigability, reservoir ageing, hydroelectric equipment longevity, fish habitat, river aesthetics and scientific interests. The sediment load transported in a river is a very complex hydrological phenomenon. Hence, sediment transport has attracted the attention of engineers from various aspects, and different methods have been used for its estimation. So, several experimental equations have been submitted by experts. Though the results of these methods have considerable differences with each other and with experimental observations, because the sediment measures have some limits, these equations can be used in estimating sediment load. In this present study, two black box models namely, an SRC (Sediment Rating Curve) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) are used in the simulation of the suspended sediment load. The study is carried out for Seonath subbasin. Seonath is the biggest tributary of Mahanadi river, and it carries a vast amount of sediment. The data is collected for Jondhra hydrological observation station from India-WRIS (Water Resources Information System) and IMD (Indian Meteorological Department). These data include the discharge, sediment concentration and rainfall for 10 years. In this study, sediment load is estimated from the input parameters (discharge, rainfall, and past sediment) in various combination of simulations. A sediment rating curve used the water discharge to estimate the sediment concentration. This estimated sediment concentration is converted to sediment load. Likewise, for the application of these data in ANN, they are normalised first and then fed in various combinations to yield the sediment load. RMSE (root mean square error) and R² (coefficient of determination) between the observed load and the estimated load are used as evaluating criteria. For an ideal model, RMSE is zero and R² is 1. However, as the models used in this study are black box models, they don’t carry the exact representation of the factors which causes sedimentation. Hence, a model which gives the lowest RMSE and highest R² is the best model in this study. The lowest values of RMSE (based on normalised data) for sediment rating curve, feed forward back propagation, cascade forward back propagation and neural network fitting are 0.043425, 0.00679781, 0.0050089 and 0.0043727 respectively. The corresponding values of R² are 0.8258, 0.9941, 0.9968 and 0.9976. This implies that a neural network fitting model is superior to the other models used in this study. However, a drawback of neural network fitting is that it produces few negative estimates, which is not at all tolerable in the field of estimation of sediment load, and hence this model can’t be crowned as the best model among others, based on this study. A cascade forward back propagation produces results much closer to a neural network model and hence this model is the best model based on the present study.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Root mean squared error, sediment, sediment rating curve

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Authors: Ramin Mansouri

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Due to the contrast of rivers discharge regime with water demands, one of the best ways to use water resources is to regulate the natural flow of the rivers and supplying water needs to construct dams. Optimal utilization of reservoirs, consideration of multiple important goals together at the same is of very high importance. To study about analyzing this method, statistical data of Bakhtiari and Roudbar dam over 46 years (1955 until 2001) is used. Initially an appropriate objective function was specified and using DE algorithm, the rule curve was developed. In continue, operation policy using rule curves was compared to standard comparative operation policy. The proposed method distributed the lack to the whole year and lowest damage was inflicted to the system. The standard deviation of monthly shortfall of each year with the proposed algorithm was less deviated than the other two methods. The Results show that median values for the coefficients of F and Cr provide the optimum situation and cause DE algorithm not to be trapped in local optimum. The most optimal answer for coefficients are 0.6 and 0.5 for F and Cr coefficients, respectively. After finding the best combination of coefficients values F and CR, algorithms for solving the independent populations were examined. For this purpose, the population of 4, 25, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 members were studied in two generations (G=50 and 100). result indicates that the generation number 200 is suitable for optimizing. The increase in time per the number of population has almost a linear trend, which indicates the effect of population in the runtime algorithm. Hence specifying suitable population to obtain an optimal results is very important. Standard operation policy had better reversibility percentage, but inflicts severe vulnerability to the system. The results obtained in years of low rainfall had very good results compared to other comparative methods.

Keywords: reservoirs, differential evolution, dam, Optimal operation

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Authors: Awais Naeem, Osama Shakeel, Aamir Ali Syed, Shahid Khattak

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Introduction: Laparoscopic right hemicolectomy is an advanced cancer surgery in today's era. The aim of this study was to evaluate the surgical and initial oncological outcomes after curative, laparoscopic resection of right sided colonic tumors. Also to compare our results with those of previous randomized trials. Methods And Procedures: We retrospectively analyzed the medical record files of all the patients who presented to our hospital with the diagnosis of right sided colon carcinoma from January 2012 to December 2017 and underwent laparoscopic right hemicolectomy. Demographics, operative findings and histopathological reports were all recorded on a preformed data sheet. All the analysis was performed on SPSS 20. Results: Total of 48 patients were included. There were 37 male and 11 female patients with mean age of 49.7 (range from 25 – 82). Mean hospital stay was 8.25 ± 3.17 days. Blood loss was 80mls and operative mean time was 240 minutes. Eighteen patients had extended right hemicolectomy. Median length of the specimen retrieved was 31cm (range, 14-59cm). Mean size of tumor was 6.44cm + 2.53. Total number of lymph nodes removed was 20.5 + 8.3. All had R0 resection. Post-operatively 2 patients had pelvic collection and there was no 30 day mortality. In 33 patients there was T3 disease, 5 had T2 and 10 had T4 disease. There was distant recurrence in 4 patients with peritoneal metastasis in 3 and liver metastasis in 1 patient. Forty-six patients are still alive and 44 are disease free. The mean follow-up period was 25.31 (12 to 60) months. Conclusion: Our early experience with Laparascopic Right hemicolectomy as a safe and oncologically feasible surgical option. We attained comparable surgical results with curative intent.

Keywords: right hemicolectomy, right sided colonic tumors, laparoscopic, curative intent

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: Ye Xue, Zhenhua Deng

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Objectives: Facial soft tissue thickness (FSTT) data could be obtained from CT scans by measuring the face-to-skull distances at sparsely distributed anatomical landmarks by manually located on face and skull. However, automated measurement using 3D facial and skull models by dense points using open-source software has become a viable option due to the development of computed assisted imaging technologies. By utilizing dense FSTT information, it becomes feasible to generate plausible automated facial approximations. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive and detailed, densely calculated FSTT database is crucial in enhancing the accuracy of facial approximation. Materials and methods: This study utilized head CT scans from 250 Chinese adults of Han ethnicity, with 170 participants originally born and residing in northern China and 80 participants in southern China. The age of the participants ranged from 14 to 82 years, and all samples were divided into five non-overlapping age groups. Additionally, samples were also divided into three categories based on BMI information. The 3D Slicer software was utilized to segment bone and soft tissue based on different Hounsfield Unit (HU) thresholds, and surface models of the face and skull were reconstructed for all samples from CT data. Following procedures were performed unsing MeshLab, including converting the face models into hollowed cropped surface models amd automatically measuring the Hausdorff Distance (referred to as FSTT) between the skull and face models. Hausdorff point clouds were colorized based on depth value and exported as PLY files. A histogram of the depth distributions could be view and subdivided into smaller increments. All PLY files were visualized of Hausdorff distance value of each vertex. Basic descriptive statistics (i.e., mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation etc.) and distribution of FSTT were analysis considering the sex, age, BMI and birthplace. Statistical methods employed included Multiple Regression Analysis, ANOVA, principal component analysis (PCA). Results: The distribution of FSTT is mainly influenced by BMI and sex, as further supported by the results of the PCA analysis. Additionally, FSTT values exceeding 30mm were found to be more sensitive to sex. Birthplace-related differences were observed in regions such as the forehead, orbital, mandibular, and zygoma. Specifically, there are distribution variances in the depth range of 20-30mm, particularly in the mandibular region. Northern males exhibit thinner FSTT in the frontal region of the forehead compared to southern males, while females shows fewer distribution differences between the northern and southern, except for the zygoma region. The observed distribution variance in the orbital region could be attributed to differences in orbital size and shape. Discussion: This study provides a database of Chinese individuals distribution of FSTT and suggested opening source tool shows fine function for FSTT measurement. By incorporating birthplace as an influential factor in the distribution of FSTT, a greater level of detail can be achieved in facial approximation.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, forensic imaging, cranial facial reconstruction, facial soft tissue thickness, CT, open-source tool

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Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

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Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

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Authors: Beaula, M. Kruger, Silindisipho, T. Belot

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Small informal retailers are considered one of the most important features of developing countries around the world. Those small informal retailers form part of the local communities in South African townships and are estimated to be more than 100,000 across the country. The township economic landscape has changed over time in South Africa. The traditional small informal retailers in South African Townships have been faced with numerous challenges of increasing competition; an increase in the number of local retail shops and foreign-owned shops. There is evidence that the South African personal and disposable income has increased amongst black African consumers. Historically, people residing in townships were restricted to informal retail shops; however, this has changed due to the growing number of formal large retail chains entering into the township market. The larger retail chains are aware of the improved income levels of the middle-income townships residence and as a result, larger retailers have followed certain strategies such as; (1) retail format development; (2) diversification growth strategy; (3) market penetration growth strategy and (4) market expansion. This research did a comparative analysis between the different retail models developed by Pick n Pay, Spar and Shoprite. The research methodology employed for this study was of a qualitative nature and made use of a case study to conduct a comparative analysis between larger retailers. A questionnaire was also designed to obtain data from existing smaller retailers. The study found that larger retailers have developed smaller retail formats to compete with the traditional smaller retailers operating in South African townships. Only one out of the two large retailers offers entrepreneurs a franchise model. One of the big retailers offers the opportunity to employ between 15 to 20 employees while the others are subject to the outcome of a feasibility study. The response obtained from the entrepreneurs in the townships were mixed, while some found their presence as having a “negative impact,” which has increased competition; others saw them as a means to obtain a variety of products. This research found that the most beneficial retail model for both bigger retail and existing and new entrepreneurs are from Pick n Pay. The other retail format models are more beneficial for the bigger retailers and not to new and existing entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Pick n Pay, retailers, shoprite, spar, townships

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Authors: Farnoosh Faal

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Institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations can have a significant impact on both the organizations themselves and their stakeholders. This paper provides an overview of the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders, including tenants, employees, and other community members. The paper examines the different types of institutional and organizational change that can occur in social housing organizations, such as changes in management structure, funding models, and service delivery methods. It also explores the potential benefits and drawbacks of these changes, including changes in efficiency, service quality, and tenant satisfaction. The paper further discusses the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organization stakeholders, including the effects on employee morale, tenant engagement, and community relationships. The paper highlights the importance of effective stakeholder engagement and communication in ensuring a smooth transition to new organizational models and systems. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by institutional and organizational change in social housing organizations and provides recommendations for organizations looking to navigate these changes successfully. These recommendations include prioritizing stakeholder engagement, investing in staff training and development, and maintaining a focus on the needs and priorities of tenants and communities. Overall, this paper emphasizes the importance of considering the impact of institutional and organizational change on social housing organizations and their stakeholders and highlights strategies for managing these changes in a way that maximizes benefits and minimizes negative impacts.

Keywords: social housing organizations, stakeholder engagement, institutional change, challenges, opportunities

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Authors: Alper Taner, Yesim Benal Oztekin, Huseyin Duran

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In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed in order to classify barley varieties. For this purpose, physical properties of barley varieties were determined and ANN techniques were used. The physical properties of 8 barley varieties grown in Turkey, namely thousand kernel weight, geometric mean diameter, sphericity, kernel volume, surface area, bulk density, true density, porosity and colour parameters of grain, were determined and it was found that these properties were statistically significant with respect to varieties. As ANN model, three models, N-l, N-2 and N-3 were constructed. The performances of these models were compared. It was determined that the best-fit model was N-1. In the N-1 model, the structure of the model was designed to be 11 input layers, 2 hidden layers and 1 output layer. Thousand kernel weight, geometric mean diameter, sphericity, kernel volume, surface area, bulk density, true density, porosity and colour parameters of grain were used as input parameter; and varieties as output parameter. R2, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Error for the N-l model were found as 99.99%, 0.00074 and 0.009%, respectively. All results obtained by the N-l model were observed to have been quite consistent with real data. By this model, it would be possible to construct automation systems for classification and cleaning in flourmills.

Keywords: physical properties, artificial neural networks, barley, classification

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Authors: M. F. Amado, A. Amado, F. Poggi, J. Correia de Freitas

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Today it is widely understood that global energy consumption patterns are directly related to the ongoing urban expansion and development process. This expansion is based on the natural growth of human activities and has left most urban areas totally dependent on fossil fuel derived external energy inputs. This status-quo of production, transportation, storage and consumption of energy has become inefficient and is set to become even more so when the continuous increases in energy demand are factored in. The territorial management of land use and related activities is a central component in the search for more efficient models of energy use, models that can meet current and future regional, national and European goals. In this paper, a methodology is developed and discussed with the aim of improving energy efficiency at the municipal level. The development of this methodology is based on the monitoring of energy consumption and its use patterns resulting from the natural dynamism of human activities in the territory and can be utilized to assess sustainability at the local scale. A set of parameters and indicators are defined with the objective of constructing a systemic model based on the optimization, adaptation and innovation of the current energy framework and the associated energy consumption patterns. The use of the model will enable local governments to strike the necessary balance between human activities, economic development, and the local and global environment while safeguarding fairness in the energy sector.

Keywords: solar urban planning, solar smart city, urban development, energy efficiency

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Authors: Megha Agarwal

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The research paper is an effort to compare the earnings based and cash flow based methods of valuation of an enterprise. The theoretically equivalent methods based on either earnings such as Residual Earnings Model (REM), Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEGM), Residual Operating Income Method (ReOIM), Abnormal Operating Income Growth Model (AOIGM) and its extensions multipliers such as price/earnings ratio, price/book value ratio; or cash flow based models such as Dividend Valuation Method (DVM) and Free Cash Flow Method (FCFM) all provide different estimates of valuation of the Indian giant corporate Reliance India Limited (RIL). An ex-post analysis of published accounting and financial data for four financial years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 has been conducted. A comparison of these valuation estimates with the actual market capitalization of the company shows that the complex accounting based model AOIGM provides closest forecasts. These different estimates may be derived due to inconsistencies in discount rate, growth rates and the other forecasted variables. Although inputs for earnings based models may be available to the investor and analysts through published statements, precise estimation of free cash flows may be better undertaken by the internal management. The estimation of value from more stable parameters as residual operating income and RNOA could be considered superior to the valuations from more volatile return on equity.

Keywords: earnings, cash flows, valuation, Residual Earnings Model (REM)

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Authors: Norhan El Dallal

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The MENA region is a challenging, rapid urbanizing region, with a special profile; culturally, socially, economically and environmentally. Despite the diversity between different countries of the MENA region they all share similar urban challenges where extensive interventions are crucial. A climate sensitive region as the MENA region requires special attention for development, adaptation and mitigation. Integrating climatic and environmental parameters into the planning process to create a responsive urban form is the aim of this research in which “Parametric Urbanism” as a trend serves as a tool to reach a more sustainable urban morphology. An attempt to parameterize the relation between the climate and the urban form in a detailed manner is the main objective of the thesis. The aim is relating the different passive approaches suitable for the MENA region with the design guidelines of each and every part of the planning phase. Various conceptual scenarios for the network pattern and block subdivision generation based on computational models are the next steps after the parameterization. These theoretical models could be applied on different climatic zones of the dense communities of the MENA region to achieve an energy efficient neighborhood or city with respect to the urban form, morphology, and urban planning pattern. A final criticism of the theoretical model is to be conducted showing the feasibility of the proposed solutions economically. Finally some push and pull policies are to be proposed to help integrate these solutions into the planning process.

Keywords: parametric urbanism, climate responsive, urban form, urban and regional studies

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Authors: Matthew T. McCarthy, Sarah Janse, Natalie M. Pizzimenti, Anthony K. Savino, Brian Crosser, Sean C. Rose

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Concussion is diagnosed clinically using a comprehensive history and exam, supported by ancillary testing. Frequently, symptom checklists are used as part of the evaluation of concussion. Existing symptom scales are based on a subjective Likert scale, without relation of symptoms to clinical or functional impairment. This is a retrospective review of 133 patients under age 30 seen in an outpatient neurology practice within 30 days of a probable or definite concussion. Each patient completed 2 symptom checklists at the initial visit – the SCAT-3 symptom evaluation (22 symptoms, 0-6 scale) and a scale based on the degree of clinical impairment for each symptom (22 symptoms, 0-3 scale related to functional impact of the symptom). Final clearance date was determined by the treating physician. 60.9% of patients were male with mean age 15.7 years (SD 2.3). Mean time from concussion to first visit was 6.9 days (SD 6.2), and 101 patients had definite concussions (75.9%), while 32 were diagnosed as probable (24.1%). 94 patients had a known clearance date (70.7%) with mean clearance time of 20.6 days (SD 18.6) and median clearance time of 19 days (95% CI 16-21). Mean total symptom score was 27.2 (SD 22.9) on the SCAT-3 and 14.7 (SD 11.9) for the functional impairment scale. Pearson’s correlation between the two scales was 0.98 (p < 0.001). After adjusting for patient and injury characteristics, an equivalent increase in score on each scale was associated with longer time to clearance (SCAT-3 hazard ratio 0.885, 95%CI 0.835-0.938, p < 0.001; functional impairment scale hazard ratio 0.851, 95%CI 0.802-0.902, p < 0.001). A concussion symptom scale based on degree of functional impairment correlates strongly with the SCAT-3 scale and demonstrates a similar association with time to clearance. By assessing the degree of impact on clinical functioning, this symptom scale reflects a more intuitive approach to rating symptoms and can be used in the management of concussion.

Keywords: checklist, concussion, neurology, scale, sports, symptoms

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Authors: Gómez R. Marta, Martín M. Jesús María

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The general aim of this paper identifies the areas of highest concentration of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the incinerator through the use of dispersion models. Atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for estimating and prevent the impact of emissions from a particular source in air quality. These models allow considering different factors that influence in air pollution: source characteristics, the topography of the receiving environment and weather conditions to predict the pollutants concentration. The PCDD/Fs, after its emission into the atmosphere, are deposited on water or land, near or far from emission source depending on the size of the associated particles and climatology. In this way, they are transferred and mobilized through environmental compartments. The modelling of PCDD/Fs was carried out with following tools: Atmospheric Dispersion Model Software (ADMS) and Surfer. ADMS is a dispersion model Gaussian plume, used to model the impact of air quality industrial facilities. And Surfer is a program of surfaces which is used to represent the dispersion of pollutants on a map. For the modelling of emissions, ADMS software requires the following input parameters: characterization of emission sources (source type, height, diameter, the temperature of the release, flow rate, etc.) meteorological and topographical data (coordinate system), mainly. The study area was set at 5 Km around the incinerator and the first population center nearest to focus PCDD/Fs emission is about 2.5 Km, approximately. Data were collected during one year (2013) both PCDD/Fs emissions of the incinerator as meteorology in the study area. The study has been carried out during period's average that legislation establishes, that is to say, the output parameters are taking into account the current legislation. Once all data required by software ADMS, described previously, are entered, and in order to make the representation of the spatial distribution of PCDD/Fs concentration and the areas affecting them, the modelling was proceeded. In general, the dispersion plume is in the direction of the predominant winds (Southwest and Northeast). Total levels of PCDD/Fs usually found in air samples, are from <2 pg/m3 for remote rural areas, from 2-15 pg/m3 in urban areas and from 15-200 pg/m3 for areas near to important sources, as can be an incinerator. The results of dispersion maps show that maximum concentrations are the order of 10-8 ng/m3, well below the values considered for areas close to an incinerator, as in this case.

Keywords: atmospheric dispersion, dioxin, furan, incinerator

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Authors: Lyka Selene Magnayi, Marcos Vinas, Roseanne Ramos

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As the real estate industry continually grows in the Philippines, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide advantages in generating spatial databases for efficient delivery of information and services. The real estate sector is not only providing qualitative data about real estate properties but also utilizes various spatial aspects of these properties for different applications such as hazard mapping and assessment. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) model and a spatial database of real estate properties in Fort Bonifacio, Taguig City are developed using GIS and SketchUp. Spatial datasets include political boundaries, buildings, road network, digital terrain model (DTM) derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) image, Google Earth satellite imageries, and hazard maps. Multiple model layers were created based on property listings by a partner real estate company, including existing and future property buildings. Actual building dimensions, building facade, and building floorplans are incorporated in these 3D models for geovisualization. Hazard model layers are determined through spatial overlays, and different scenarios of hazards are also presented in the models. Animated maps and walkthrough videos were created for company presentation and evaluation. Model evaluation is conducted through client surveys requiring scores in terms of the appropriateness, information content, and design of the 3D models. Survey results show very satisfactory ratings, with the highest average evaluation score equivalent to 9.21 out of 10. The output maps and videos obtained passing rates based on the criteria and standards set by the intended users of the partner real estate company. The methodologies presented in this study were found useful and have remarkable advantages in the real estate industry. This work may be extended to automated mapping and creation of online spatial databases for better storage, access of real property listings and interactive platform using web-based GIS.

Keywords: geovisualization, geographic information systems, GIS, real estate, spatial database, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

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Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

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Authors: Eun Hui Bae, Sang Yeob Lim, Bongseong Kim, Tae Ryom Oh, Su Hyun Song, Sang Heon Suh, Hong Sang Choi, Eun Mi Yang, Chang Seong Kim, Seong Kwon Ma, Kyung-Do Han, Soo Wan Kim

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Background: Recent hypertension guidelines have recommended lower blood pressure (BP) targets in high-risk patients. However, there are no specific guidelines based on age or systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively). We aimed to assess the effects of age-related BP on the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with diabetes. Methods: A total of 2,563,870 patients with DM aged >20 years were selected from the Korean National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2012 and followed up until the end of 2019. Participants were categorized into age and BP groups, and the hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD were calculated. Results: During a median follow-up of 7.15 years, the incidence rates of ESRD increased with increasing SBP and DBP. The HR for ESRD was the highest in patients younger than 40 years of age with DBP ≥ 100 mmHg. The effect of SBP and DBP on ESRD development was attenuated with age (interaction p-value was <0.0001 for age and SBP and 0.0022 for age and DBP). The subgroup analysis for sex, anti-hypertension medication, and history of chronic kidney disease (CKD) showed higher HRs for ESRD among males younger than 40 years, not taking anti-hypertension medications and CKD compared to those among females older than 40 years, anti-hypertension medication and non-CKD groups. Conclusions: Higher SBP and DBP increase the risk of developing ESRD in patients with diabetes, and in particular, younger individuals face greater risk. Therefore, intensive BP management is warranted in younger patients to prevent ESRD.

Keywords: hypertension, young adult, end-stage renal disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, blood pressure

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Authors: C. M. Williams, R. English, P. King, I. M. Brown

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Introduction: Pseudoangiomatous Stromal Hyperplasia (PASH) is a benign fibrous proliferation of breast stroma affecting predominantly premenopausal women with no significant increased risk of breast cancer. Informal recommendations for management have continued to evolve over recent years from surgical excision to observation, although there are no specific national guidelines. This study assesses the safety of a non-surgical approach to PASH management by review of cases at a single centre. Methods: Retrospective case series review (January 2011 – August 2016) was conducted on consecutive PASH cases. Diagnostic classification (clinical, radiological and histological), management outcomes, and breast cancer incidence were recorded. Results: 43 patients were followed up for median of 25 months (3-64) with 75% symptomatic at presentation. 12% of cases (n=5) had a radiological score (BIRADS MMG or US) ≥ 4 of which 3 were confirmed malignant. One further malignancy was detected and proven radiologically occult and contralateral. No patients were diagnosed with a malignancy during follow-up. Treatment evolved from 67% surgical in 2011 to 33% in 2016. Conclusions: The management of PASH has transitioned in line with other published experience. The preliminary findings suggest this appears safe with no evidence of missed malignancies; however, longer follow up is required to confirm long-term safety. Recommendations: PASH with suspicious radiological findings ( ≥ U4/R4) warrants multidisciplinary discussion for excision. In the absence of histological or radiological suspicion of malignancy, PASH can be safely managed without surgery.

Keywords: benign breast disease, conservative management, malignancy, pseudoangiomatous stromal hyperplasia, surgical excision

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Authors: Saraswati Verma, Ankit Batra

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In the modern day, structures are designed with a lot of complexities due to economical, aesthetical, and functional needs causing various levels of irregularities to be induced. In the past, several studies have repeatedly shown that irregular structures suffer more damage than regular structures during earthquakes. The present study makes an effort to study the contribution of the orientation of columns in the seismic behaviour of buildings with vertical irregularities namely, soft storey irregularity, mass irregularity and geometric irregularity. The response of the various models is analysed using sap2000 version 14. The parameters through which a comparative response is investigated are displacement, variation in the stiffness contribution, and inter-storey drift. Models with different configurations of column orientations were studied for each vertical irregularity and it was observed that column orientation contributed significantly in affecting a better seismic response. Square columns of the same cross-sectional area showed a good response as compared to that of rectangular columns. The study concludes that as displacement values for buildings with a soft storey and mass irregularity are very high, square columns could be used to minimise the effect of displacement in x and y-axis. In buildings with geometric irregularity, exterior column orientations can be played with to enhance the stiffness in the shorter direction to control the displacement and drift values in both x and y directions.

Keywords: soft storey, mass irregularity, geometric irregularity, column orientation, square column

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Authors: Edit Xhajanka, Gresa Baboci, Irene Malagnino, Mimoza Canga, Vito Antonio Malagnino

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Purpose: This study aimed at identifying dental caries increment or reduction, based on factors such as smoking, the scaling of teeth, BMI before and during pregnancy, carbohydrates consumption in relation to childbirth. Material and method: In this observational study, the sample included a total of 98 pregnant women and their age class was 18-45 years old, with a median age of 31.5 years. The setting of the participants resides in Vlora –Albania. Moreover, 64.4% were from the city and 35.6% were from the nearby villages. The study was conducted in the time period January 2018 –June 2021. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using the standard formula (kg/m²). Maternal pre, during and post-pregnancy BMI was collected by using a validated questionnaire. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0. The significance level (α) was set at 0.05, whereas P-value and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to analyze the data. Results: Based on the data analysis, 44.4% of the sample declared that they did smoke before pregnancy and 55.6% not smoked during their pregnancy. As a result, no association was found between smoking and length of pregnancy P=0.95. There is also a strong relation (P=0.000) between the number of teeth with caries before pregnancy and the number of teeth with caries during pregnancy. There is a significant relationship between the scaling of teeth and childbirth, P=0.05. BMI before and during pregnancy in relation to carbohydrates consumption have a significant correlation P=0.004 and P=0.002. The values of BMI before and during pregnancy in relation to childbirth have a strong correlation: P=0.043 and P=0.040, respectively. As a result, obesity was associated with preterm birth. The percentage of children born during 34-36 weeks of pregnancy was 69%, and children born during 32-34 weeks of pregnancy were 31%. CONCLUSION: There was a positive association between dental caries experience, BMI and carbohydrates consumption. Obesity in pregnancy is increasing worldwide; that is why this study suggests the importance of an appropriate weight before and during pregnancy.

Keywords: BMI, dental caries, pregnancy, scaling, smoking

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Authors: Kamel Abd Elaziz Mohamed

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Introduction: Drug related problems (DRPs) are of major concern, affecting patients of both sex. They impose considerable economic burden on the society and the health-care systems. Aim of the work: The aim of this work was to identify and categorize drug-related problems in adult intensive care unit. Patients and methods: The study was a prospective, observational study as eighty six patients were included. They were consecutively admitted to ICU through the emergency room or transferred from the general ward due to DRPs. Parameters included in the study as length of stay in ICU, need for cardiovascular support or mechanical ventilation, dialysis, as well as APACHE II score were recorded. Results: Drug related problems represent 3.6% of the total ICU admission. The median (range) of APACHE II score for 86 patients included in the study was 17 (10-23), and length of ICU stay was 2.4 (1.5-4.2) days. In 45 patients (52%), DRP was drug over dose (group 1), while other DRP was present in the other 41 patients (48%, group 11). Patients in group 1 were older (39 years versus 32 years in group 11), with significant impaired renal function. The need of inotropic drugs and mechanical ventilation as well as the length of stay (LOS) in ICU was significantly higher in group 1. There were no significant difference in GCS between both groups, however APACHE II score was significantly higher in group 1. Only four patients (4.6%) were admitted by suicidal attempt as well as three patients (3.4%) due to trauma drug-related admissions, all were in (group 1). Nineteen percent of the patients had drug related problem due to hypoglycaemic medication followed by tranquilizer (15%). Adverse drug effect followed by failure to receive medication were the most causes of drug problem in (group11).The total mortality rate was 4.6%, all of them were eventually non preventable. Conclusion: The critically ill patients admitted due to drug related problems represented a small proportion (3.6%) of admissions to the ICU. Hypoglycaemic medication was one of the most common causes of admission by drug related problems.

Keywords: drug related problems, ICU, cost, safety

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Authors: V. Hashim, P. N. Dileep

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Stent implantation is being seen as the most successful method to treat coronary artery diseases. Different types of stents are available in the market these days and the success of a stent implantation greatly depends on the proper selection of a suitable stent for a patient. Computer numerical simulation is the cost effective way to choose the compatible stent. Studies confirm that the design characteristics of stent do have great importance with regards to the pressure it can sustain, the maximum displacement it can produce, the developed stress concentration and so on. In this paper different designs of stent were analyzed together with balloon to optimize the stent and balloon system. Commercially available stent Palmaz-Schatz has been selected for analysis. Abaqus software is used to simulate the system. This work is the finite element analysis of the artery stent implant to find out the design factors affecting the stress and strain. The work consists of two phases. In the first phase, stress distribution of three models were compared - stent without balloon, stent with balloon of equal length and stent with balloon of extra length than stent. In second phase, three different design models of Palmaz-Schatz stent were compared by keeping the balloon length constant. The results obtained from analysis shows that, the design of the strut have strong effect on the stress distribution. A design with chamfered slots found better results. The length of the balloon also has influence on stress concentration of the stent. Increase in length of the balloon will reduce stress, but will increase dog boning effect.

Keywords: coronary stent, finite element analysis, restenosis, stress concentration

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Authors: Peter Crow

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Boards and directors have been subjects of much scholarly research and public interest over several decades, more so since the succession of high profile company failures of the early 2000s. An array of research outputs including information, correlations, descriptions, models, hypotheses and theories have been reported. While some of this research has shed light on aspects of the board–performance relationship and on board tasks and behaviours, the nature and characteristics of the supposed board–performance relationship remain undetermined. That satisfactory explanations of how boards influence company performance have yet to emerge is a significant blind spot. Yet the board is ultimately responsible for company performance, in accordance with the wishes of shareholders. The aim of this paper is to explore corporate governance and board practice through the lens of strategic management, and to take tentative steps towards a new conception of corporate governance. The findings of a recent longitudinal multiple-case study designed to explore the board’s involvement in strategic management are reported. Qualitative and quantitative data was collected from two quasi-public large companies in New Zealand including from first-hand observations of boards in session, semi-structured interviews with chief executives and chairmen and the inspection of company and board documentation. A synthetic timeline framework was used to collate the financial, board structure, board activity and decision-making data, in order to provide a holistic perspective. Decision sequences were identified, and realist techniques of abduction and retroduction were iteratively applied to analyse the multi-year data set. Using several models previously proposed in the literature as a guide, conjectures were formed, tested and refined—the culmination of which was a provisional model of how boards can influence performance via strategic management. The model builds on both existing theoretical perspectives and theoretical models proposed in the corporate governance and strategic management literature. This paper seeks to add to the understanding of how boards can make meaningful contributions to value creation via strategic management, and to comment on the qualities of directors, social interactions in boardrooms and other circumstances within which influence might be possible given the highly contingent relationship between board activity and business performance outcomes.

Keywords: board practice, case study, corporate governance, strategic management

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Authors: M. Baldini, H. K. Jacobsen, M. Jaccard

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In light of the international efforts to comply with the Paris agreement and emission targets for future energy systems, Denmark and Canada are among the front-runner countries dealing with climate change. The experiences in the energy sector have seen both countries coping with trade-offs between investments in renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency, thus tackling the climate issue from the supply and demand side respectively. On the demand side, the industrial sector is going through a remarkable transformation, with implementation of energy efficiency measures, change of input fuel for end-use processes and forecasted electrification as main features under the spotlight. By looking at Canada and Denmark's experiences as pathfinders on the demand and supply approach to climate change, it is possible to obtain valuable experience that may be applied to other countries aiming at the same goal. This paper presents a comparative study on industrial energy efficiency between Canada and Denmark. The study focuses on technologies and system options, policy design and implementation and modelling methodologies when implementing industrial energy savings in optimization models in comparison to simulation models. The study identifies gaps and junctures in the approach towards climate change actions and, learning from each other, lessen the differences to further foster the adoption of energy efficiency measurements in the industrial sector, aiming at reducing energy consumption and, consequently, CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: industrial energy efficiency, comparative study, CO₂ reduction, energy system modelling

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