Search results for: time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

Authors: Shayem Saleh ALresheedi, Lu Song Feng, Abdulaziz Abdulwahab M. Fatani

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Cloud computing is an emerging concept in the technological sphere. Its development enables many applications to avail information online and on demand. It is becoming an essential element for businesses due to its ability to diminish the costs of IT infrastructure and is being adopted in Saudi Arabia. However, there exist many factors that affect its adoption. Several researchers in the field have ignored the study of the TAM model for identifying the relevant factors and their impact for adopting of cloud computing. This study focuses on evaluating the acceptability of cloud computing and analyzing its impacting factors using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) of technology adoption in Saudi Arabia. It suggests a model to examine the influential factors of the TAM model along with external factors of technical support in adapting the cloud computing. The proposed model has been tested through the use of multiple hypotheses based on calculation tools and collected data from customers through questionnaires. The findings of the study prove that the TAM model along with external factors can be applied in measuring the expected adoption of cloud computing. The study presents an investigation of influential factors and further recommendation in adopting cloud computing in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: cloud computing, acceptability, adoption, determinants

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Abderrahmen Bouguerra, Kamel Kara, Djamel Saigaa, Samir Zeghlache, Keltoum Loukal

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In this paper, a Fault-Tolerant control of 2 DOF Helicopter (TRMS System) Based on Fuzzy Gain-Adaptive PID is presented. In particular, the introduction part of the paper presents a Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC), the first part of this paper presents a description of the mathematical model of TRMS, an adaptive PID controller is proposed for fault-tolerant control of a TRMS helicopter system in the presence of actuator faults, A fuzzy inference scheme is used to tune in real-time the controller gains, The proposed adaptive PID controller is compared with the conventional PID. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: fuzzy control, gain-adaptive PID, helicopter model, PID control, TRMS system

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Authors: Bagher Bayat, Wouter Verhoef, Behnaz Arabi, Christiaan Van der Tol

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The aim of this study was to follow the canopy reflectance patterns in response to soil water deficit and to detect trends of changes in biophysical and biochemical parameters of grass (Poa pratensis species). We used visual interpretation, imaging spectroscopy and radiative transfer model inversion to monitor the gradual manifestation of water stress effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm x 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were subjected to water stress for 50 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance was measured. In addition, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Chlorophyll (a+b) content (Cab) and Leaf Water Content (Cw) were measured at regular time intervals. The 1-D bidirectional canopy reflectance model SAIL, coupled with the leaf optical properties model PROSPECT, was inverted using hyperspectral measurements by means of an iterative optimization method to retrieve vegetation biophysical and biochemical parameters. The relationships between retrieved LAI, Cab, Cw, and Cs (Senescent material) with soil moisture content were established in two separated groups; stress and non-stressed. To differentiate the water stress condition from the non-stressed condition, a threshold was defined that was based on the laboratory produced Soil Water Characteristic (SWC) curve. All parameters retrieved by model inversion using canopy spectral data showed good correlation with soil water content in the water stress condition. These parameters co-varied with soil moisture content under the stress condition (Chl: R2= 0.91, Cw: R2= 0.97, Cs: R2= 0.88 and LAI: R2=0.48) at the canopy level. To validate the results, the relationship between vegetation parameters that were measured in the laboratory and soil moisture content was established. The results were totally in agreement with the modeling outputs and confirmed the results produced by radiative transfer model inversion and spectroscopy. Since water stress changes all parts of the spectrum, we concluded that analysis of the reflectance spectrum in the VIS-NIR-MIR region is a promising tool for monitoring water stress impacts on vegetation.

Keywords: hyperspectral remote sensing, model inversion, vegetation responses, water stress

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Authors: Ahlam Inayatullah Badrul Munir, M. Husaini A. Rahman, Mohd Sukri Hassan

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Real-time PCR is a molecular biology technique that is currently being widely used for halal services to differentiating between porcine and bovine DNA. The useful of technique become very important for student or workers (who works in the laboratory) to learn how the technique could be run smoothly without fail. Same concept with conventional PCR, real-time PCR also needed DNA template, primer, enzyme polymerase, dNTP, and buffer. The difference is in real-time PCR, have additional component namely fluorescent dye. The most common use of fluorescent dye in real-time PCR is SYBR green. The purpose of this study was to find out how sensitive, specific and efficient real-time PCR technique was combined with SYBR green method and specific primers of CYT b. The results showed that real-time PCR technique using SYBR Green, capable of detecting porcine and bovine DNA concentrations up to 0.0001 µl/ng. The level of efficiency for both types of DNA was 91% (90-110). Not only that in specific primer CYT b bovine primer could detect only bovine DNA, and porcine primer could detect only porcine primer. So, from the study could be concluded that real-time PCR technique that was combined with specific primer CYT b and SYBR green method, was sensitive, specific and efficient to detect porcine and bovine DNA.

Keywords: sensitivity, specificity, efficiency, real-time PCR, SYBR green, Cytochrome b, porcine DNA, bovine DNA

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Authors: Royia Soliman, Salma ElAnsary, Akram Amin Abdellatif, Florian Holzapfel

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Model-Based Safety Analysis (MBSA) is an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. The model can also be extended by the failure modes of the system components. There are two famous approaches for the addition of fault behaviors to system models. The first one is to enclose the failure into the system design directly. The second approach is to develop a fault model separately from the system model, thus combining both independent models for safety analysis. This paper introduces a hybrid approach of MBSA. The approach tries to use informal abstracted models to investigate failure behaviors. The approach will combine various concepts such as directed graph traversal, event lists and Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSP). The approach is implemented using an Object Oriented programming language. The components are abstracted to its failure logic and relationships of connected components. The implemented approach is tested on various flight control systems, including electrical and multi-domain examples. The various tests are analyzed, and a comparison to different approaches is represented.

Keywords: flight control systems, model based safety analysis, safety assessment analysis, system modelling

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Authors: K. A. Adeleke

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Often in epidemiological research, introducing stratified Cox model can account for the existence of interactions of some inherent factors with some major/noticeable factors. This research work aimed at modelling correlated variables in infant mortality with the existence of some inherent factors affecting the infant survival function. An alternative semiparametric Stratified Cox model is proposed with a view to take care of multilevel factors that have interactions with others. This, however, was used as a tool to model infant mortality data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) with some multilevel factors (Tetanus, Polio, and Breastfeeding) having correlation with main factors (Sex, Size, and Mode of Delivery). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are also studied via simulation. The tested model via data showed good fit and performed differently depending on the levels of the interaction of the strata variable Z*. An evidence that the baseline hazard functions and regression coefficients are not the same from stratum to stratum provides a gain in information as against the usage of Cox model. Simulation result showed that the present method produced better estimates in terms of bias, lower standard errors, and or mean square errors.

Keywords: stratified Cox, semiparametric model, infant mortality, multilevel factors, cofounding variables

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Authors: Ozge Gurcanli

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Recent studies in active-learning focus on how student experience varies based on the content (e.g. STEM versus Humanities) and the medium (e.g. in-class exercises versus off-campus activities) of experiential learning. However, little is known whether the variation in classroom time and space within the same active learning context affects student experience. This study manipulated the use of classroom time for the active learning component of a developmental psychology course that is offered at a four-year university in the South-West Region of United States. The course uses a blended model: traditional and active learning. In the traditional learning component of the course, students do weekly readings, listen to lectures, and take midterms. In the active learning component, students make a documentary on a developmental topic as a final project. Students used the classroom time and space for the documentary in two ways: regular classroom time slots that were dedicated to the making of the documentary outside without the supervision of the professor (Classroom-time Outside) and lectures that offered basic instructions about how to make a documentary (Documentary Lectures). The study used the public teaching evaluations that are administered by the Office of Registrar’s. A total of two hundred and seven student evaluations were available across six semesters. Because the Office of Registrar’s presented the data separately without personal identifiers, One-Way ANOVA with four groups (Traditional, Experiential-Heavy: 19% Classroom-time Outside, 12% for Documentary Lectures, Experiential-Moderate: 5-7% for Classroom-time Outside, 16-19% for Documentary Lectures, Experiential Light: 4-7% for Classroom-time Outside, 7% for Documentary Lectures) was conducted on five key features (Organization, Quality, Assignments Contribution, Intellectual Curiosity, Teaching Effectiveness). Each measure used a five-point reverse-coded scale (1-Outstanding, 5-Poor). For all experiential conditions, the documentary counted towards 30% of the final grade. Organization (‘The instructors preparation for class was’), Quality (’Overall, I would rate the quality of this course as’) and Assignment Contribution (’The contribution of the graded work that made to the learning experience was’) did not yield any significant differences across four course types (F (3, 202)=1.72, p > .05, F(3, 200)=.32, p > .05, F(3, 203)=.43, p > .05, respectively). Intellectual Curiosity (’The instructor’s ability to stimulate intellectual curiosity was’) yielded a marginal effect (F (3, 201)=2.61, p = .053). Tukey’s HSD (p < .05) indicated that the Experiential-Heavy (M = 1.94, SD = .82) condition was significantly different than all other three conditions (M =1.57, 1.51, 1.58; SD = .68, .66, .77, respectively) showing that heavily active class-time did not elicit intellectual curiosity as much as others. Finally, Teaching Effectiveness (’Overall, I feel that the instructor’s effectiveness as a teacher was’) was significant (F (3, 198)=3.32, p <.05). Tukey’s HSD (p <.05) showed that students found the courses with moderate (M=1.49, SD=.62) to light (M=1.52, SD=.70) active class-time more effective than heavily active class-time (M=1.93, SD=.69). Overall, the findings of this study suggest that within the same active learning context, the time and the space dedicated to active learning results in different outcomes in intellectual curiosity and teaching effectiveness.

Keywords: active learning, learning outcomes, student experience, learning context

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Authors: Arnab Roy, P. S. Anil Kumar

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We discuss angle dependent changes to the Barkhausen noise signatures of thin epitaxial Fe films upon altering the angle of the applied field. We observe a sub-critical to critical phase transition in the hysteresis loop of the sample upon increasing the out-of-plane component of the applied field. The observations are discussed in the light of simulations of a 2D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model with references to a reducible form of the Random Anisotropy Ising Model.

Keywords: Barkhausen noise, Planar Hall effect, Random Field Ising Model, Random Anisotropy Ising Model

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Authors: Deyu Zhou, Xiao Xue, Lizhen Cui

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With the increasing collaboration among various services and the growing complexity of user demands, there are more and more factors affecting the stable development of the cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE). This poses new challenges to the evolution analysis of the CMSE. Many researchers have modeled and analyzed the evolution process of CMSE from the perspectives of individual learning and internal factors influencing the system, but without considering other important characteristics of the system's individuals (such as heterogeneity, bounded rationality, etc.) and the impact of external environmental factors. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated artificial social model for the cloud manufacturing service economic system, which considers both the characteristics of the system's individuals and the internal and external influencing factors of the system. The model consists of three parts: the Agent model, environment model, and rules model (Agent-Environment-Rules, AER): (1) the Agent model considers important features of the individuals, such as heterogeneity and bounded rationality, based on the adaptive behavior mechanisms of perception, action, and decision-making; (2) the environment model describes the activity space of the individuals (real or virtual environment); (3) the rules model, as the driving force of system evolution, describes the mechanism of the entire system's operation and evolution. Finally, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the AER model through computational and experimental results.

Keywords: cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE), AER model, artificial social modeling, integrated framework, computing experiment, agent-based modeling, social networks

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Authors: Michael Airton

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This case study examines the development of a new service delivery model for prisons that focuses on using NGO’s to provide more effective case management and post release support functions. The model includes the co-design of the service delivery model and innovative commercial agreements that encourage embedded service providers within the prison and continuity of services post release with outcomes based payment mechanisms. The collaboration of prison staff, probation and parole officers and NGO’s is critical to the success of the model and its ability to deliver value and positive outcomes in relation to desistance from offending.

Keywords: collaborative service delivery, desistance, non-government organisations, post release support services

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Authors: Garba Iliyasu, Lamaran Dattijo

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Introduction: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a disease of humans and other primates caused by Ebola viruses. The most widespread epidemic of EVD in history occurred recently in several West African countries. The burden and outcome of EVD in pregnant women remains uncertain. There are very few studies to date reporting on maternal and fetal outcomes among pregnant women with EVD, hence the justification for this comprehensive review of these published studies. Methods: Published studies in English that reported on maternal and or fetal outcome among pregnant women with EVD up to May 2016 were searched in electronic databases (Google Scholar, Medline, Embase, PubMed, AJOL, and Scopus). Studies that did not satisfy the inclusion criteria were excluded. We extracted the following variables from each study: geographical location, year of the study, settings of the study, participants, maternal and fetal outcome.Result: There were 12 studies that reported on 108 pregnant women and 110 fetal outcomes. Six of the studies were case reports, 3 retrospective studies, 2 cross-sectional studies and 1 was a technical report. There were 91(84.3%) deaths out of the 108 pregnant women, while only 1(0.9%) fetal survival was reported out of 110. Survival rate among the 15 patients that had spontaneous abortion/stillbirth or induced delivery was 100%. Conclusion: There was a poor maternal and fetal outcome among pregnant women with EVD, and fetal evacuation significantly improves maternal survival.

Keywords: Africa, ebola, maternofetal, outcome

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Awais

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Pakistan is a country which is gifted by naturally abundant resources these resources are a pioneer towards a prospect and developed country. Pakistan is the fourth largest exporter of the textile in the world and with the passage of time the competitiveness of these exports is subject to a decline. With a lot of International players in the textile world like China, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to put up a lot of effort to compete with these countries. This research paper would determine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment upon technological diffusion and that how significantly it may be affecting on export performance of the country. It would also demonstrate that with the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, technological diffusion, strong property rights, and using different policy tools, export competitiveness of the country could be improved. The research has been carried out using time series data from 1995 to 2013 and the results have been estimated by using competing Econometrics modes such as Robust regression and Generalized least squares so that to consolidate the impact of the Foreign Investments and Technological diffusion upon export competitiveness comprehensively. Distributed Lag model has also been used to encompass the lagged effect of policy tools variables used by the government. Model estimates entail that 'FDI' and 'Technological Diffusion' do have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the exports of Pakistan. It may also be inferred that competitiveness of Textile Sector requires integrated policy framework, primarily including the reduction in interest rates, providing subsides, and manufacturing of value added products.

Keywords: high technology export, robust regression, patents, technological diffusion, export competitiveness

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Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: Elena M. Kopteva, Pavlina Jaluvkova, Zdenek Stuchlik

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The question of constructing a consistent model of the cosmological black hole remains to be unsolved and still attracts the interest of cosmologists as far as it is important in a wide set of research problems including the problem of the black hole horizon dynamics, the problem of interplay between cosmological expansion and local gravity, the problem of structure formation in the early universe etc. In this work, the model of the cosmological black hole is built on the basis of the exact solution of the Einstein equations for the spherically symmetric inhomogeneous dust distribution in the approach of the mass function use. Possible trajectories for massive particles and photons near the black hole immersed in the nonstatic dust cosmological background are investigated in frame of the obtained model. The reference system of distant galaxy comoving to cosmological expansion combined with curvature coordinates is used, so that the resulting metric becomes nondiagonal and involves both proper ‘cosmological’ time and curvature spatial coordinates. For this metric the geodesic equations are analyzed for the test particles and photons, and the respective trajectories are built.

Keywords: exact solutions for Einstein equations, Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution, cosmological black holes, particle and photon trajectories

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Authors: B. B. S. Pereira, M. O. Souza, L. P. Zanetti, L. C. S. Oliveira, J. R. P. Moreno, M. P. Souza, V. R. Colturato, C. M. Machado

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Background: The introduction of prophylactic or preemptive therapies has effectively decreased the CMV mortality rates after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). CMV antigenemia (pp65) or quantitative PCR are methods currently approved for CMV surveillance in pre-emptive strategies. Commercial assays are preferred as cut-off levels defined by in-house assays may vary among different protocols and in general show low reproducibility. Moreover, comparison of published data among different centers is only possible if international standards of quantification are included in the assays. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) established the first international standard for CMV detection. The real time PCR COBAS Ampliprep/ CobasTaqMan (CAP/CTM) (Roche®) was developed using the WHO standard for CMV quantification. However, the cut-off for the introduction of antiviral has not been determined yet. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study to determine: 1) the sensitivity and specificity of the new CMV CAP/CTM test in comparison with pp65 antigenemia to detect episodes of CMV infection/reactivation, and 2) the cut-off of viral load for introduction of ganciclovir (GCV). Pp65 antigenemia was performed and the corresponding plasma samples were stored at -20°C for further CMV detection by CAP/CTM. Comparison of tests was performed by kappa index. The appearance of positive antigenemia was considered the state variable to determine the cut-off of CMV viral load by ROC curve. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 19 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA.). Results: Thirty-eight patients were included and followed from August 2014 through May 2015. The antigenemia test detected 53 episodes of CMV infection in 34 patients (89.5%), while CAP/CTM detected 37 episodes in 33 patients (86.8%). AG and PCR results were compared in 431 samples and Kappa index was 30.9%. The median time for first AG detection was 42 (28-140) days, while CAP/CTM detected at a median of 7 days earlier (34 days, ranging from 7 to 110 days). The optimum cut-off value of CMV DNA was 34.25 IU/mL to detect positive antigenemia with 88.2% of sensibility, 100% of specificity and AUC of 0.91. This cut-off value is below the limit of detection and quantification of the equipment which is 56 IU/mL. According to CMV recurrence definition, 16 episodes of CMV recurrence were detected by antigenemia (47.1%) and 4 (12.1%) by CAP/CTM. The duration of viremia as detected by antigenemia was shorter (60.5% of the episodes lasted ≤ 7 days) in comparison to CAP/CTM (57.9% of the episodes lasting 15 days or more). This data suggests that the use of antigenemia to define the duration of GCV therapy might prompt early interruption of antiviral, which may favor CMV reactivation. The CAP/CTM PCR could possibly provide a safer information concerning the duration of GCV therapy. As prolonged treatment may increase the risk of toxicity, this hypothesis should be confirmed in prospective trials. Conclusions: Even though CAP/CTM by ROCHE showed great qualitative correlation with the antigenemia technique, the fully automated CAP/CTM did not demonstrate increased sensitivity. The cut-off value below the limit of detection and quantification may result in delayed introduction of pre-emptive therapy.

Keywords: antigenemia, CMV COBAS/TAQMAN, cytomegalovirus, antiviral cut-off

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Authors: Carlos Caro, Ernest Bladé, Pedro Acosta, Camilo Lesmes

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The drying-wet process is one of the topics to be more careful in distributed hydrological modeling using finite volume schemes as a means of solving the equations of Saint Venant. In a hydrologic and hydraulic computer model, surface flow phenomena depend mainly on the different flow accumulation and subsequent runoff generation. These accumulations are generated by routing, cell by cell, from the heights of water, which begin to appear due to the rain at each instant of time. Determine when it is considered a dry cell and when considered wet to include in the full calculation is an issue that directly affects the quantification of direct runoff or generation of flow at the end of a zone of contribution by accumulations flow generated from cells or finite volume.

Keywords: hydrology, transport processes, hydrological modelling, finite volume schemes

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Authors: Mwafak Shakoor

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The purpose of this study was to reduce patient waiting times, improve system throughput and improve resources utilization in radiology department. A discrete event simulation model was developed using Arena simulation software to investigate different alternatives to improve the overall system delivery based on adding resource scenarios due to the linkage between patient waiting times and resource availability. The study revealed that there is no addition investment need to procure additional scanner but hospital management deploy managerial tactics to enhance machine utilization and reduce the long waiting time in the department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, radiology department, arena, waiting time, healthcare modeling, computed tomography

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Authors: Ibraheem A. K. Mahameed

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The aim of this study is to identify the risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 38 risks that might affect time performance of building construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. These risks have been classified into 6 groups: project, managerial, consultant, financial, external, and construction items. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered risks in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top five risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in Palestine are: award project to the lowest price, political situation, poor communication and coordination between construction parties, change orders, and financial status of contractor.

Keywords: delay, time performance, construction, building

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Authors: Abdelmounaim Lahrech, Hajar Bousfiha

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This paper examines equity market integration between Morocco and France and its consequent implications on international portfolio diversification. In the absence of stock market linkages, Morocco can act as a diversification destination to European investors, allowing higher returns at a comparable level of risk in developed markets. In contrast, this attractiveness is limited if both financial markets show significant linkage. The research empirically measures financial market’s integration in by capturing the conditional correlation between the two markets using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Then, the research uses the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle (2002) to track the correlations. The research findings show that there is no important increase over the years in the correlation between the Moroccan and the French equity markets, even though France is considered Morocco’s first trading partner. Failing to prove evidence of the stock index linkage between the two countries, the volatility series of each market were assumed to change over time separately. Yet, the study reveals that despite the important historical and economic linkages between Morocco and France, there is no evidence that equity markets follow. The small correlations and their stationarity over time show that over the 10 years studied, correlations were fluctuating around a stable mean with no significant change at their level. Different explanations can be attributed to the absence of market linkage between the two equity markets.

Keywords: equity market linkage, DCC GARCH, international portfolio diversification, Morocco, France

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Authors: M. Bonello, D. Micallef, S. P. Borg

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Driven by increased comfort standards, but at the same time high energy consciousness, energy-efficient space cooling has become an essential aspect of building design. Its aims are simple, aiming at providing satisfactory thermal comfort for individuals in an interior space using low energy consumption cooling systems. In this context, evaporative cooling is both an energy-efficient and an eco-friendly cooling process. In the past two decades, several academic studies have been performed to determine the resulting thermal comfort produced by an evaporative cooling system, including studies on temperature profiles, air speed profiles, effect of clothing and personnel activity. To the best knowledge of the authors, no studies have yet considered the analysis of relative humidity (RH) profiles in a space cooled using evaporative cooling. Such a study will determine the effect of different humidity levels on a person's thermal comfort and aid in the consequent improvement designs of such future systems. Under this premise, the research objective is to characterise the resulting different RH profiles in a chamber micro-climate using the evaporative cooling system in which the inlet air speed, temperature and humidity content are varied. The chamber shall be modelled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in ANSYS Fluent. Relative humidity shall be modelled using a species transport model while the k-ε RNG formulation is the proposed turbulence model that is to be used. The model shall be validated with measurements taken using an identical test chamber in which tests are to be conducted under the different inlet conditions mentioned above, followed by the verification of the model's mesh and time step. The verified and validated model will then be used to simulate other inlet conditions which would be impractical to conduct in the actual chamber. More details of the modelling and experimental approach will be provided in the full paper The main conclusions from this work are two-fold: the micro-climatic relative humidity spatial distribution within the room is important to consider in the context of investigating comfort at occupant level; and the investigation of a human being's thermal comfort (based on Predicted Mean Vote – Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied [PMV-PPD] values) and its variation with different locations of relative humidity values. The study provides the necessary groundwork for investigating the micro-climatic RH conditions of environments cooled using evaporative cooling. Future work may also target the analysis of ways in which evaporative cooling systems may be improved to better the thermal comfort of human beings, specifically relating to the humidity content around a sedentary person.

Keywords: chamber micro-climate, evaporative cooling, relative humidity, thermal comfort

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

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Classical matrix calculus and Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions, applied to the snake-like motion of the conical wheel axle, lead to the conclusion that the hunting mode is inherently unstable, and its natural frequency is a complex number. In order to analytically solve such a complicated vibration model, either the inertia terms were neglected, in the model designated as geometrical, or restrictions on the creep coefficients and yawing diameter were imposed, in the so-called dynamical model. Here, an alternative solution is proposed to solve the hunting mode, based on the observation that the bullet train wheel axle is equipped with cylindrical wheels. One argues that for such wheel treads, the geometrical hunting is irrelevant, since its natural frequency becomes nil, but the dynamical hunting is significant since its natural frequency reduces to a real number. Moreover, one illustrates that the geometrical simplification of the wheel causes the stabilization of the hunting mode, since the characteristic quartic equation, derived for conical wheels, reduces to a quadratic equation of positive coefficients, for cylindrical wheels. Quite simple analytical expressions for the damping ratio and natural frequency are obtained, without applying restrictions into the model of contact. Graphs of the time-depending hunting lateral perturbation, including the maximal and inflexion points, are presented both for the critically-damped and the over-damped wheel axles.

Keywords: bullet train, creep, cylindrical wheels, damping, dynamical hunting, stability, vibration analysis

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Authors: Bang-Fuh Chen, Chih-Chun Chu

Abstract:

The flow induced cylinder vibration or earthquake-induced cylinder motion are moving in an arbitrary direction with time. The phenomenon of flow across cylinder is highly nonlinear and a linear-superposition of flow pattern across separated oscillating direction of cylinder motion is not valid to obtain the flow pattern across a cylinder oscillating in multiple directions. A novel finite difference scheme is developed to simulate the viscous flow across an arbitrary moving circular cylinder and we call this a complete 2D (two-dimensional) flow-cylinder interaction. That is, the cylinder is simultaneously oscillating in x- and y- directions. The time-dependent domain and meshes associated with the moving cylinder are mapped to a fixed computational domain and meshes, which are time independent. The numerical results are validated by several bench mark studies. Several examples are introduced including flow across steam-wise, transverse oscillating cylinder and flow across rotating cylinder and flow across arbitrary moving cylinder. The Morison’s formula can not describe the complex interaction phenomenon between cross flow and oscillating circular cylinder. And the completed 2D computational fluid dynamic analysis should be made to obtain the correct hydrodynamic force acting on the cylinder.

Keywords: 2D cylinder, finite-difference method, flow-cylinder interaction, flow induced vibration

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Authors: Tamas Garamhegyi, Jozsef Kovacs, Rita Pongracz, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Norbert Magyar, Istvan G. Hatvani

Abstract:

Like most environmental processes, shallow groundwater fluctuation under natural circumstances also behaves periodically. With the statistical tools at hand, it can easily be determined if a period exists in the data or not. Thus, the question may be raised: Does the estimated average period time characterize the whole time period, or not? This is especially important in the case of such complex phenomena as shallow groundwater fluctuation, driven by numerous factors. Because of the continuous changes in the oscillating components of shallow groundwater time series, the most appropriate method should be used to investigate its periodicity, this is wavelet spectrum analysis. The aims of the research were to investigate the periodic behavior of the shallow groundwater time series of an agriculturally important and drought sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe and its relationship to the European pressure action centers. During the research ~216 shallow groundwater observation wells located in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain with a temporal coverage of 50 years were scanned for periodicity. By taking the full-time interval as 100%, the presence of any period could be determined in percentages. With the complex hydrogeological/meteorological model developed in this study, non-periodic time intervals were found in the shallow groundwater levels. On the local scale, this phenomenon linked to drought conditions, and on a regional scale linked to the maxima of the regional air pressures in the Gulf of Genoa. The study documented an important link between shallow groundwater levels and climate variables/indices facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, which have to take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, drought, groundwater periodicity, wavelet spectrum and coherence analyses

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Authors: P. J. Sweeney, T. Ahtoniemi, J. Puoliväli, T. Laitinen, K.Lehtimäki, A. Nurmi, D. Wells

Abstract:

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an X-linked, lethal muscle wasting disease for which there are currently no treatment that effectively prevents the muscle necrosis and progressive muscle loss. DMD is among the most common of inherited diseases affecting around 1/3500 live male births. MDX (X-linked muscular dystrophy) mice only partially encapsulate the disease in humans and display weakness in muscles, muscle damage and edema during a period deemed the “critical period” when these mice go through cycles of muscular degeneration and regeneration. Although the MDX mutant mouse model has been extensively studied as a model for DMD, to-date an extensive temporal, non-invasive imaging profile that utilizes magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) has not been performed.. In addition, longitudinal imaging characterization has not coincided with attempts to exacerbate the progressive muscle damage by exercise. In this study we employed an 11.7 T small animal MRI in order to characterize the MRI and MRS profile of MDX mice longitudinally during a 12 month period during which MDX mice were subjected to exercise. Male mutant MDX mice (n=15) and male wild-type mice (n=15) were subjected to a chronic exercise regime of treadmill walking (30 min/ session) bi-weekly over the whole 12 month follow-up period. Mouse gastrocnemius and tibialis anterior muscles were profiled with baseline T2-MRI and 1H-MRS at 6 weeks of age. Imaging and spectroscopy was repeated again at 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months of age. Plasma creatine kinase (CK) level measurements were coincided with time-points for T2-MRI and 1H-MRS, but also after the “critical period” at 10 weeks of age. The results obtained from this study indicate that chronic exercise extends dystrophic phenotype of MDX mice as evidenced by T2-MRI and1H-MRS. T2-MRI revealed extent and location of the muscle damage in gastrocnemius and tibialis anterior muscles as hyperintensities (lesions and edema) in exercised MDX mice over follow-up period.. The magnitude of the muscle damage remained stable over time in exercised mice. No evident fat infiltration or cumulation to the muscle tissues was seen at any time-point in exercised MDX mice. Creatine, choline and taurine levels evaluated by 1H-MRS from the same muscles were found significantly decreased in each time-point, Extramyocellular (EMCL) and intramyocellular lipids (IMCL) did not change in exercised mice supporting the findings from anatomical T2-MRI scans for fat content. Creatine kinase levels were found to be significantly higher in exercised MDX mice during the follow-up period and importantly CK levels remained stable over the whole follow-up period. Taken together, we have described here longitudinal prophile for muscle damage and muscle metabolic changes in MDX mice subjected to chronic exercised. The extent of the muscle damage by T2-MRI was found to be stable through the follow-up period in muscles examined. In addition, metabolic profile, especially creatine, choline and taurine levels in muscles, was found to be sustained between time-points. The anatomical muscle damage evaluated by T2-MRI was supported by plasma CK levels which remained stable over the follow-up period. These findings show that non-invasive imaging and spectroscopy can be used effectively to evaluate chronic muscle pathology. These techniques can be also used to evaluate the effect of various manipulations, like here exercise, on the phenotype of the mice. Many of the findings we present here are translatable to clinical disease, such as decreased creatine, choline and taurine levels in muscles. Imaging by T2-MRI and 1H-MRS also revealed that fat content or extramyocellar and intramyocellular lipids, respectively, are not changed in MDX mice, which is in contrast to clinical manifestation of the Duchenne’s muscle dystrophy. Findings show that non-invasive imaging can be used to characterize the phenotype of a MDX model and its translatability to clinical disease, and to study events that have traditionally been not examined, like here rigorous exercise related sustained muscle damage after the “critical period”. The ability for this model to display sustained damage beyond the spontaneous “critical period“ and in turn to study drug effects on this extended phenotype will increase the value of the MDX mouse model as a tool to study therapies and treatments aimed at DMD and associated diseases.

Keywords: 1H-MRS, MRI, muscular dystrophy, mouse model

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Authors: H. Katkhuda

Abstract:

A time domain approach is used in this paper to identify unknown dynamic forces applied on two dimensional frames using the measured dynamic structural responses for a sub-structure in the two dimensional frame. In this paper a sub-structure finite element model with short length of measurement from only three or four accelerometers is required, and an iterative least-square algorithm is used to identify the unknown dynamic force applied on the structure. Validity of the method is demonstrated with numerical examples using noise-free and noise-contaminated structural responses. Both harmonic and impulsive forces are studied. The results show that the proposed approach can identify unknown dynamic forces within very limited iterations with high accuracy and shows its robustness even noise- polluted dynamic response measurements are utilized.

Keywords: dynamic force identification, dynamic responses, sub-structure, time domain

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Authors: Timo Miebach, Kirsten Hoeper, Carolin Felix

Abstract:

In times of competitive pressures and demographic change, hospitals have to reconsider their strategies as a company. Due to the fact, that operations are one of the main income and one of the primary cost drivers otherwise, a process-oriented approach and an efficient use of resources seems to be the right way for getting a consistent market position. Thus, the efficient operation room occupancy planning is an important cause variable for the success and continued the existence of these institutions. A high utilization of resources is essential. This means a very high, but nevertheless sensible capacity-oriented utilization of working systems that can be realized by avoiding downtimes and a thoughtful occupancy planning. This engineering approach should help hospitals to reach her break-even point. Firstly, the aim is to establish a strategy point, which can be used for the generation of a planned throughput time. Secondly, the operation planning and control should be facilitated and implemented accurately by the generation of time modules. More than 100,000 data records of the Hannover Medical School were analyzed. The data records contain information about the type of conducted operation, the duration of the individual process steps, and all other organizational-specific data such as an operating room. Based on the aforementioned data base, a generally valid model was developed by an analysis to define a strategy point which takes the conflict of capacity utilization and low overtime into account. Furthermore, time modules were generated in this work, which allows a simplified and flexible operation planning and control for the operation manager. By the time modules, it is possible to reduce a high average value of the idle times of the operation rooms. Furthermore, the potential is used to minimize the idle time spread.

Keywords: capacity, operating room, surgery planning and control, utilization

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Authors: T. J. B. van Niekerk, J. Viviers, E. J. Cilliers

Abstract:

Substantial efforts were made in South Africa, stemming from a historic political change in 1994, to remedy the inequality and injustice, resulting from a dispensation where spatial patterns were largely based on racial segregation. Spatially distorted patterns predominantly originated from colonialism in the beginning of the twentieth century, ensuing a physical imprint on South African cities relating to architecture, urban layout and planning, frequently reflecting European norms and standards. As a consequence of physical and land use barriers, and well-established dual cities, attempts to address spatial injustices, apart from limited occurrences in metropolitan areas, gravely failed. Interception of incessant segregated growth, combined with urban sprawl is becoming increasingly evident. Intervention is a prerequisite to duly address the impact of colonial planning and its legacy still prevalent in most urban areas. During 1998, the National Department of Transport prepared the “Moving South Africa” strategy; presenting the Corridor Densification Option Model for the first time, as it was deemed more fitting to the existing South African urban tenure patterns than more familiar planning approaches. Urban planners are progressively contemplating the Corridor Densification Option Model and its attributes, besides its transportation emphasis, as an alternative approach to address spatial imbalances and to attain the physical integration of contemporary urban forms. In attaining a clearer understanding of the Corridor Densification Option Model, its rationale was analysed in greater detail. This research further investigated the provisional applications of the model in spatially segregated cities and illustrated that viable options are present to effectively employ it. Research revealed that the application of the model will, however, be dependent on the occurrence of specific characteristics in spatially segregated cities to warrant augmentation thereof.

Keywords: corridor densification option model, spatially segregated settlements, integration, urban restructuring

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Authors: Alpana Goel, Kawalpreet Kalra

Abstract:

The study of level structures of deformed nuclei is the most complex topic in nuclear physics. For the description of level structure, a simple model is good enough to bring out the basic features which may then be further refined. The low lying level structures of these nuclei can, therefore, be understood in terms of Two Quasiparticle plus axially symmetric Rotor Model (TQPRM). The formulation of TQPRM for deformed nuclei has been presented. The analysis of available experimental data on two quasiparticle rotational bands of deformed nuclei present unusual features like signature dependence, odd-even staggering, signature inversion and signature reversal in two quasiparticle rotational bands of deformed nuclei. These signature effects are well discussed within the framework of TQPRM. The model is well efficient in reproducing the large odd-even staggering and anomalous features observed in even-even and odd-odd deformed nuclei. The effect of particle-particle and the Coriolis coupling is well established from the model. Detailed description of the model with implications to deformed nuclei is presented in the paper.

Keywords: deformed nuclei, signature effects, signature inversion, signature reversal

Procedia PDF Downloads 157