Search results for: probability weighted moment estimation

Authors: Talip Turkmen

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From the moment the first beats, the first step into the world mankind finds him in a struggle to survive. Most important case to win this fight is power. Power is one of the most common concepts which we encounter in our life. Mainly power is ability to reach desired results on someone else or ability to penetrate into the behavior of others. Throughout history merging technology and changing political trade-offs caused the change of concept of power. Receiving a state of multipolar new world order in the 21st century and increasing impacts of media have narrowed the limits of military power. With increasing globalization and peaceful diplomacy this gap, left by military power, has filled by soft power which has ability to persuade and attract. As concepts of power soft power also has not compromised yet. For that reason it is important to specify, sources of soft power, soft power strategies and limits of soft power. The purpose of this study was to analyze concept of soft power and importance of soft power in foreign relations. This project focuses on power, hard power and soft power relations, sources of soft power and strategies to gain soft power. Datas in this project was acquired from other studies on soft power and foreign relations. This paper was prepared in terms of concept and research techniques. As a result of data gained in this study the one of important topics in international relations is balance between soft power.

Keywords: soft power, foreign policy, national power, hard power

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Authors: Zhuang He, Andrei Kotousov

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All current experimental methods for determination of stress intensity factors are based on the assumption that the state of stress near the crack tip is plane stress. Therefore, these methods rely on strain and displacement measurements made outside the near crack tip region affected by the three-dimensional effects or by process zone. In this paper, we develop and validate an experimental procedure for the evaluation of stress intensity factors from the measurements of the out-of-plane displacements in the surface area controlled by 3D effects. The evaluation of stress intensity factors is possible when the process zone is sufficiently small, and the displacement field generated by the 3D effects is fully encapsulated by K-dominance region.

Keywords: digital image correlation, stress intensity factors, three-dimensional effects, transverse displacement

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Authors: Isaac Mugume

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Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Vano Tsertsvadze, Marina Chavchanidze, Lali Khurtsia

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Problem of drug use is often seen as a combination of psychological and social problems, but this problem can be considered as economically rational decision in the process of buying pleasure (looking after children, reading, harvesting fruits in the fall, sex, eating, etc.). Before the adoption of the decisions people face to a trade-off - when someone chooses a delicious meal, she takes a completely rational decision, that the pleasure of eating has a lot more value than the pleasure which she will experience after two months diet on the summer beach showing off her beautiful body. This argument is also true for alcohol, drugs and cigarettes. Smoking has a negative effect on health, but smokers are not afraid of the threat of a lung cancer after 40 years, more valuable moment is a pleasure from smoking. Our hypothesis - unsatisfied pleasure and frustration, probably determines the risk of dependence on drug abuse. The purpose of research: 1- to determine the relative measure unit of pleasure, which will be used to measure and assess the intensity of various human pleasures. 2- to compare the intensity of the pleasure from different kinds of activity, with pleasures received from drug use. 3- Based on the analysis of data, to identify factors affecting the rational decision making. Research method: Respondents will be asked to recall the greatest pleasure of their life, which will be used as a measure of the other pleasures. The study will use focus groups and structured interviews.

Keywords: drug, drug-user, measurement, satisfaction

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The performance of wireless communication systems is affected mainly by the environment of its associated channel, which is characterized by dynamic and unpredictable behavior. In this paper, different statistical earth-satellite channel models are studied with emphasize on two main models, first is the Rice-Log normal model, due to its representation for the environment including shadowing and multi-path components that affect the propagated signal along its path, and a three-state model that take into account different fading conditions (clear area, moderate shadow and heavy shadowing). The provided models are based on AWGN, Rician, Rayleigh, and log-normal distributions were their Probability Density Functions (PDFs) are presented. The transmission system Bit Error Rate (BER), Peak-Average-Power Ratio (PAPR), and the channel capacity vs. fading models are measured and analyzed. These simulations are implemented using MATLAB tool, and the results had shown the performance of transmission system over different channel models.

Keywords: fading channels, MIMO communication, RNS scheme, statistical modeling

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Authors: Matjaž Divjak, Simon Zelič, Aleš Holobar

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We present a dedicated video-based monitoring system for quantification of patient’s attention to visual feedback during robot assisted gait rehabilitation. Two different approaches for eye gaze and head pose tracking are tested and compared. Several metrics for assessment of patient’s attention are also presented. Experimental results with healthy volunteers demonstrate that unobtrusive video-based gaze tracking during the robot-assisted gait rehabilitation is possible and is sufficiently robust for quantification of patient’s attention and assessment of compliance with the rehabilitation therapy.

Keywords: video-based attention monitoring, gaze estimation, stroke rehabilitation, user compliance

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Authors: Hamdi Sana, Emna Bouazizi, Sami Faiz

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In recent years, there is a huge increase in the use of spatio-temporal applications where data and queries are continuously moving. As a result, the need to process real-time spatio-temporal data seems clear and real-time stream data management becomes a hot topic. Sliding window model and frequent itemset mining over dynamic data are the most important problems in the context of data mining. Thus, sliding window model for frequent itemset mining is a widely used model for data stream mining due to its emphasis on recent data and its bounded memory requirement. These methods use the traditional transaction-based sliding window model where the window size is based on a fixed number of transactions. Actually, this model supposes that all transactions have a constant rate which is not suited for real-time applications. And the use of this model in such applications endangers their performance. Based on these observations, this paper relaxes the notion of window size and proposes the use of a timestamp-based sliding window model. In our proposed frequent itemset mining algorithm, support conditions are used to differentiate frequents and infrequent patterns. Thereafter, a tree is developed to incrementally maintain the essential information. We evaluate our contribution. The preliminary results are quite promising.

Keywords: real-time spatial big data, frequent itemset, transaction-based sliding window model, timestamp-based sliding window model, weighted frequent patterns, tree, stream query

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Authors: Eugen Dimant, Tim Krieger, Margarete Redlin

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This paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizing on a comprehensive dataset consisting of annual immigration stocks of OECD coun-tries from 207 countries of origin for the period 1984-2008, we explore different channels through which corruption might migrate. We employ different estimation methods using fixed effects and Tobit regressions in order to validate our findings. What is more, we also address the issue of endogeneity by using the Difference-Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. Independent of the econometric methodology we consistently find that while general migration has an insignificant effect on the destination country’s corruption level, immigration from corruption-ridden origin countries boosts corruption in the destination country. Our findings provide a more profound understanding of the economic implications associated with migration flows.

Keywords: corruption, migration, impact of migration, destination-country corruption

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Authors: Maharjan Shree Kumar

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Climate change impacts are observed in all livelihood sectors primarily in agriculture and forestry. Multiple factors have influenced the climate vulnerabilities and adaptations in agricultural at the household level. This study focused on the factors affecting adaptation in agriculture in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Central and Western Nepal. The systematic random sampling technique was applied to select 154 households in Madi and 150 households in Deukhuri. The main purpose of the study was to analyze the socio-economic factors that either influence or restrain the farmers’ adaptation to climate change at the household level by applying the linear probability model. Based on the analysis, it is revealed that crop diversity, education, training and total land holding (acre) were positively significant for adaptation choices the study sites. Rest of the variables were not significant though indicated positive as expected except age, occupation, ethnicity, family size, and access to credit.

Keywords: adaptation, agriculture, climate, factors, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

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This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, "first-glance" correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve

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Authors: Chalakorn Chitsaart, Suchada Rianmora, Noppawat Vongpiyasatit

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In order to reduce the transportation time and cost for direct interface between customer and manufacturer, the image processing technique has been introduced in this research where designing part and defining manufacturing process can be performed quickly. A3D virtual model is directly generated from a series of multi-view images of an object, and it can be modified, analyzed, and improved the structure, or function for the further implementations, such as computer-aided manufacturing (CAM). To estimate and quote the production cost, the user-friendly platform has been developed in this research where the appropriate manufacturing parameters and process detections have been identified and planned by CAM simulation.

Keywords: image processing technique, feature detections, surface registrations, capturing multi-view images, Production costs and Manufacturing processes

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Authors: Adebayo Muritala Adegbore

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The e-administration is increasingly being recognized as an important phenomenon in this 21st century and its place in society both at the public and private levels cannot be downplayed. Of close attention is how these platforms are adopted and used in academia due to academia’s role in shaping the overall development of the society, particularly the administrative activities of the non-teaching staff in universities since much has not been done to find out the continuance intention to use e-administration information portal by non-teaching staff in universities. This study, therefore, investigates the continuance intention to use e-administration of information portals of senior non-teaching staff in selected universities in southwest Nigeria. The study’s design was a correlational survey using simple random sampling to select three hundred and fifty-two (352) senior non-teaching staff in the selected universities. A standardized questionnaire was used for data capturing while data were analyzed using the descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentages, means, and standard deviation for the research questions and the Pearson Product Moment Correlation was used for the hypothesis. Findings revealed that the continuance intention of senior non-teaching staff to use e-administration information portal is positive (x = 3.13), the university portal is one of the most utilized e-administration tools (83.4%), while there was an inversely significant relationship between continuance intention to use and use of e-administration information portal (r = -.254; p< 0.05; N = 320).

Keywords: e-administration, e-portal, non-teaching staff, information systems, continuance intention, use of e-administration portals

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Authors: Mujidat Lola Olugbode

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This study investigates the effects of internet addiction on academic performance among students in some tertiary institutions in Oyo State, Nigeria. A descriptive survey research design was adopted for the study. Two research questions and two hypotheses were answered and tested. The population of the study comprised of all students in five tertiary institutions in Oyo State, Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique was used to select 2550 participants (respondents) from the institutions used for the study, this constituted the sample for the study. The instruments used for data collection was a self-constructed questionnaire on Internet Addiction and Students Academic Performance (IAASAP). The reliability coefficient of the instrument was 0.77. Data collected were analyzed using frequency and percentages, Pearson Product Moment Correlation coefficient (PPMCC) and t-test analysis. The results showed that the students in tertiary institutions in Oyo State were occasionally addicted to internet use. The study also revealed a positive correlation between internet addiction and academic performance. The findings also showed that there was significant difference in the internet addiction between male and female Students. Based on the above findings, the researchers recommended among others that government, educators, parents, counselors, teachers should help redirect the internet use toward academics to ensure greater academic performance.

Keywords: internet, addiction, internet addiction, academic performance, tertiary institution, students

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Authors: N. Berrouachedi, M. Bouslama, S. Rioual, B. Lescop, J. Langlois

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Using first-principles calculations within the LSDA (Local Spin Density Approximation) method based on density functional theory (DFT), the electronic structure and magnetic properties of zinc blende Fe/In0.5Ga0.5As/InPsuperlattice are investigated. This compound are found to be half -metallic ferromagnets with a total magnetic moment of 2.25μB per Fe. In addition to this, we reported the DRX measurements of the thick iron sample before and after annealing. One should note, after the annealing treatment at a higher temperature, the disappearance of the peak associated to the Fe(001) plane. In contrast to this report, we observed after the annealing at low temperature the additional peaks attributed to the presence of indium and Fe2As. This suggests a subsequent process consisting in a strong migration of atoms followed with crystallization at the higher temperature.To investigate the origin of magnetism and electronic structure in these zb compounds, we calculated the total and partial DOS of FeInP.One can see that µtotal=4.24µBand µFe=3.27µB in contrast µIn=0.021µB and µP=0.049µB.These results predicted that FeInP compound do belong to the class of zb half metallic HM ferromagnetswith a pseudo gap= 0.93 eVare more promising materials for spintronics devices.

Keywords: zincblend structure, half metallic ferromagnet, spin moments, total and partial DOS, DRX, Wien2k

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Authors: Antoni Ivanov, Nikolay Dandanov, Nicole Christoff, Vladimir Poulkov

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Spectrum underutilization has made cognitive radio a promising technology both for current and future telecommunications. This is due to the ability to exploit the unused spectrum in the bands dedicated to other wireless communication systems, and thus, increase their occupancy. The essential function, which allows the cognitive radio device to perceive the occupancy of the spectrum, is spectrum sensing. In this paper, the performance of modern adaptations of the four most widely used spectrum sensing techniques namely, energy detection (ED), cyclostationary feature detection (CSFD), matched filter (MF) and eigenvalues-based detection (EBD) is compared. The implementation has been accomplished through the PlutoSDR hardware platform and the GNU Radio software package in very low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions. The optimal detection performance of the examined methods in a realistic implementation-oriented model is found for the common relevant parameters (number of observed samples, sensing time and required probability of false alarm).

Keywords: cognitive radio, dynamic spectrum access, GNU Radio, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Ahmad Mohsin, Syda Fatima, Falak Nawaz, Aman Ullah Khan

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Selection of an appropriate architectural style is vital to the success of target web service under development. The nature of architecture design and selection for service-oriented computing applications is quite different as compared to traditional software. Web Services have complex and rigorous architectural styles to choose. Due to this, selection for accurate architectural style for web services development has become a more complex decision to be made by architects. Architectural style selection is a multi-criteria decision and demands lots of experience in service oriented computing. Decision support systems are good solutions to simplify the selection process of a particular architectural style. Our research suggests a new approach using DSS for selection of architectural styles while developing a web service to cater FRs and NFRs. Our proposed DSS helps architects to select right web service architectural pattern according to the domain and non-functional requirements. In this paper, a rule base DSS has been developed using CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) to support decisions using multi-criteria requirements. This DSS takes architectural characteristics, domain requirements and software architect preferences for NFRs as input for different architectural styles in use today in service-oriented computing. Weighted sum model has been applied to prioritize quality attributes and domain requirements. Scores are calculated using multiple criterions to choose the final architecture style.

Keywords: software architecture, web-service, rule-based, DSS, multi-criteria requirements, quality attributes

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Authors: Endri Rama, Genci Capi, Shigenori Kawahara

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The mobile robot ability to navigate autonomously in its environment is very important. Even though the advances in technology, robot self-localization and goal directed navigation in complex environments are still challenging tasks. In this article, we propose a novel method for robot navigation based on rat’s brain signals (Local Field Potentials). It has been well known that rats accurately and rapidly navigate in a complex space by localizing themselves in reference to the surrounding environmental cues. As the first step to incorporate the rat’s navigation strategy into the robot control, we analyzed the rats’ strategies while it navigates in a multiple Y-maze, and recorded Local Field Potentials (LFPs) simultaneously from three brain regions. Next, we processed the LFPs, and the extracted features were used as an input in the artificial neural network to predict the rat’s next location, especially in the decision-making moment, in Y-junctions. We developed an algorithm by which the robot learned to imitate the rat’s decision-making by mapping the rat’s brain signals into its own actions. Finally, the robot learned to integrate the internal states as well as external sensors in order to localize and navigate in the complex environment.

Keywords: brain-machine interface, decision-making, mobile robot, neural network

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Authors: Yinggang Guo, Zongchun Li

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In order to decrease the accumulated survey error of tunnel installation control network of particle accelerator, a sectional control method is proposed. Firstly, the accumulation rule of positional error with the length of the control network is obtained by simulation calculation according to the shape of the tunnel installation-control-network. Then, the RMS of horizontal positional precision of tunnel backbone control network is taken as the threshold. When the accumulated error is bigger than the threshold, the tunnel installation control network should be divided into subsections reasonably. On each segment, the middle survey station is taken as the datum for independent adjustment calculation. Finally, by taking the backbone control points as faint datums, the weighted partial parameters adjustment is performed with the adjustment results of each segment and the coordinates of backbone control points. The subsections are jointed and unified into the global coordinate system in the adjustment process. An installation control network of the linac with a length of 1.6 km is simulated. The RMS of positional deviation of the proposed method is 2.583 mm, and the RMS of the difference of positional deviation between adjacent points reaches 0.035 mm. Experimental results show that the proposed sectional control method can not only effectively decrease the accumulated survey error but also guarantee the relative positional precision of the installation control network. So it can be applied in the data processing of tunnel installation control networks, especially for large particle accelerators.

Keywords: alignment, tunnel installation control network, accumulated survey error, sectional control method, datum

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Authors: Eyup Ozkan, Ozkan U. Nalbantoglu, Aycan Gundogdu, Mehmet Hora, A. Emre Onuk

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The human microbiome has been associated with cardiological conditions and this relationship is becoming to be defined beyond the gastrointestinal track. In this study, we investigate the alteration in circulatory microbiota in the context of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). We received circulatory blood samples from suspected CAD patients and maintain 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing to identify each patient’s microbiome. It was found that Corynebacterium and Methanobacteria genera show statistically significant differences between healthy and CAD patients. The overall biodiversities between the groups were observed to be different revealed by machine learning classification models. We also achieve and demonstrate the performance of a diagnostic method using circulatory blood microbiome-based estimation.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, blood microbiome, machine learning, angiography, next-generation sequencing

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Authors: Mohsen Ehsanpour, Maryam Ehsanpour, ‎Majid Afkhami, Fatemeh Afkhami ‎

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Heavy metals are increasingly being released into natural waters from geological and anthropogenic sources. The distribution of several heavy metals (Cd, Pb) was investigated in muscle, liver in six different fish species seasonally collected in Persian Gulf (autumn 2009-summer 2010). The concentrations of all metals were lower in flesh than those recorded in liver due to their physiological roles. The THQ index for fish was calculated. Estimation of target hazard quotients calculations for the contaminated fish consumption was calculated to evaluate the effect of pollution on health. Total metal THQs values (Pb and Cd) for adults were 0.05 and 0.04 in Bushehr and Bandar-Genaveh, respectively, and for children they were 0.08 and 0.05 in Bandar-Abbas and Bandar-Lengeh, respectively.

Keywords: Persian Gulf, heavy metals, health risks, THQ index

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Authors: G. Mattia, A. Di Leo, L. Principato

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The purchase impulsiveness is preceded by a lack of self-control: consequently, it is legitimate to believe that a consumer with a low level of self-control can result in a higher probability of cognitive dissonance. Moreover, the process of purchase is influenced by the pre-existing affective state in a considerable way. With reference to on-line purchases, digital behavior cannot be merely ascribed to the rational sphere, given the speed and ease of transactions and the hedonistic dimension of purchases. To our knowledge, this research is among the first cases of verification of the effect of moderation exerted by the positive affective state in the on-line impulse purchase of products with a high expressive value such as a smartphone on the occurrence of cognitive dissonance. To this aim, a moderation analysis was conducted on a sample of 212 impulsive millennials buyers. Three scales were adopted to measure the constructs of interest: IBTS for impulsivity, PANAS for the affective state, Sweeney for cognitive dissonance. The analysis revealed that positive affective state does not affect the onset of cognitive dissonance.

Keywords: cognitive dissonance, impulsive buying, online shopping, online consumer behavior

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Authors: N. Zarikian

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Comparative analysis of the fauna of two families of butterflies (Lepidoptera: Rhopalocera) – Hesperiidae and Nymphalidae were carried out. In general, 122 species of the families are recorded. among these 33 species belong to Hesperiidae and 89 to Nymphalidae. The numbers by countries are as follows: 72 species are found in Syria (including 24 Hesperiidae and 48 Nymphalidae) and 97 in Armenia (26 and 71 species, respectively). Two species of Hesperiidae are reported for Syrian fauna for the first time and one species is newly recorded for Armenia. From the species above mentioned 38 are common both for Syria and Armenia. For estimation of the similarity of faunas studied were used the Jaccard index. By families the index is rather different, consisting for Hesperiidae 0.5151 and for Nymphalidae 0.337.

Keywords: Armenia, fauna, Hesperiidae, Nymphalidae, (Rhopalocera: Lepidoptera), Syria

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Authors: M-M. Mohamed Ahmed, Nacer K. M’Sirdi, Aziz Naamane

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In this paper, a longitudinal and lateral control approach based on a nonlinear observer is proposed for a convoy of autonomous vehicles to follow a desired trajectory. To authors best knowledge, this topic has not yet been sufficiently addressed in the literature for the control of multi vehicles. The modeling of the convoy of the vehicles is revisited using a robotic method for simulation purposes and control design. With these models, a sliding mode observer is proposed to estimate the states of each vehicle in the convoy from the available sensors, then a sliding mode control based on this observer is used to control the longitudinal and lateral movement. The validation and performance evaluation are done using the well-known driving simulator Scanner-Studio. The results are presented for different maneuvers of 5 vehicles.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, convoy, non-linear control, non-linear observer, sliding mode

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Authors: Merve Begum Terzi, Orhan Arikan, Adnan Abaci, Mustafa Candemir

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Acute myocardial infarction is a major cause of death in the world. Therefore, its fast and reliable diagnosis is a major clinical need. ECG is the most important diagnostic methodology which is used to make decisions about the management of the cardiovascular diseases. In patients with acute myocardial ischemia, temporary chest pains together with changes in ST segment and T wave of ECG occur shortly before the start of myocardial infarction. In this study, a technique which detects changes in ST/T sections of ECG is developed for the early diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia. For this purpose, a database of real ECG recordings that contains a set of records from 75 patients presenting symptoms of chest pain who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constituted. 12-lead ECG’s of the patients were recorded before and during the PCI procedure. Two ECG epochs, which are the pre-inflation ECG which is acquired before any catheter insertion and the occlusion ECG which is acquired during balloon inflation, are analyzed for each patient. By using pre-inflation and occlusion recordings, ECG features that are critical in the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are identified and the most discriminative features for the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are extracted. A classification technique based on support vector machine (SVM) approach operating with linear and radial basis function (RBF) kernels to detect ischemic events by using ST-T derived joint features from non-ischemic and ischemic states of the patients is developed. The dataset is randomly divided into training and testing sets and the training set is used to optimize SVM hyperparameters by using grid-search method and 10fold cross-validation. SVMs are designed specifically for each patient by tuning the kernel parameters in order to obtain the optimal classification performance results. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to real ECG recordings, it is shown that the proposed technique provides highly reliable detections of the anomalies in ECG signals. Furthermore, to develop a detection technique that can be used in the absence of ECG recording obtained during healthy stage, the detection of acute myocardial ischemia based on ECG recordings of the patients obtained during ischemia is also investigated. For this purpose, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to represent the joint pdf of the most discriminating ECG features of myocardial ischemia. Then, a Neyman-Pearson type of approach is developed to provide detection of outliers that would correspond to acute myocardial ischemia. Neyman – Pearson decision strategy is used by computing the average log likelihood values of ECG segments and comparing them with a range of different threshold values. For different discrimination threshold values and number of ECG segments, probability of detection and probability of false alarm values are computed, and the corresponding ROC curves are obtained. The results indicate that increasing number of ECG segments provide higher performance for GMM based classification. Moreover, the comparison between the performances of SVM and GMM based classification showed that SVM provides higher classification performance results over ECG recordings of considerable number of patients.

Keywords: ECG classification, Gaussian mixture model, Neyman–Pearson approach, support vector machine

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Authors: Shahrzad Mohammadi, Ghasem Boshrouei Sharq

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All seismic design codes are based on the determination of the design earthquake without taking into account the effects of aftershocks in the design practice. In regions with a high level of seismicity, the occurrence of several aftershocks of various magnitudes and different time lags is very likely. This research aims to estimate the collapse capacity of a 10-story steel bundled tube moment frame subjected to as-recorded seismic sequences. The studied structure is designed according to the seismic regulations of the fourth revision of the Iranian code of practice for the seismic-resistant design of buildings (Code No.2800). A series of incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) is performed up to the collapse level of the intact structure. Then, in order to demonstrate the effects of aftershock events on the collapse vulnerability of the building, aftershock IDA analyzes are carried out. To gain deeper insight, collapse fragility curves are developed and compared for both series. Also, a study on the influence of various ground motion characteristics on collapse capacity is carried out. The results highlight the importance of considering the decisive effects of aftershocks in seismic codes due to their contribution to the occurrence of collapse.

Keywords: IDA, aftershock, bundled tube frame, fragility assessment, GM characteristics, as-recorded seismic sequences

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Tofigh Hamidavi, Sepehr Abrishami, Pasquale Ponterosso, David Begg

Abstract:

Structural design and analysis is an important and time-consuming process, particularly at the conceptual design stage. Decisions made at this stage can have an enormous effect on the entire project, as it becomes ever costlier and more difficult to alter the choices made early on in the construction process. Hence, optimisation of the early stages of structural design can provide important efficiencies in terms of cost and time. This paper suggests a structural design optimisation (SDO) framework in which Genetic Algorithms (GAs) may be used to semi-automate the production and optimisation of early structural design alternatives. This framework has the potential to leverage conceptual structural design innovation in Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) projects. Moreover, this framework improves the collaboration between the architectural stage and the structural stage. It will be shown that this SDO framework can make this achievable by generating the structural model based on the extracted data from the architectural model. At the moment, the proposed SDO framework is in the process of validation, involving the distribution of an online questionnaire among structural engineers in the UK.

Keywords: building information, modelling, BIM, genetic algorithm, GA, architecture-engineering-construction, AEC, optimisation, structure, design, population, generation, selection, mutation, crossover, offspring

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Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

Abstract:

This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing

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Authors: Essang Anwana Onuntuei, Chinyere Blessing Azunwoke

Abstract:

The study used secondary data from foreign and local organizations to explore major challenges and opportunities abound in Information Communication. The study aimed at exploring the tie between tele density (network coverage area) and the number of network subscriptions, probing if the degree of consumer complaints varies significantly among network providers, and assessing if network subscriptions do significantly influence the sector’s GDP contribution. Methods used for data analysis include Pearson product-moment correlation and regression analysis, and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) as well. At a two-tailed test of 0.05 confidence level, the results of findings established about 85.6% of network subscriptions were explained by tele density (network coverage area), and the number of network subscriptions; Consumer Complaints’ degree varied significantly among network providers as 80.158291 (F calculated) > 3.490295 (F critical) with very high confidence associated p-value = 0.000000 which is < 0.05; and finally, 65% of the nation’s GDP was explained by network subscription to show a high association.

Keywords: Tele density, Subscription, Network coverage, Information communication, Consumer

Procedia PDF Downloads 11