Search results for: Regular Grid
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2075

Search results for: Regular Grid

125 The Contribution of a Workshop Aimed at Providing Social Work Students with Practical Tools for Managing Household Finances

Authors: Ahuva Even-Zohar

Abstract:

Context: Families living in poverty often struggle with poor financial management and accumulating debts. Social workers play a crucial role in assisting these families, but they typically receive no formal training in financial management. Research Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a voluntary organization called Paamonim on social work students' attitudes toward providing material support and assistance in financial management to families living in poverty. Additionally, the study aimed to evaluate the students' perception of the workshop's contribution and their actual use of the tools acquired during the training. Methodology: The study involved 134 social work students, with 55 in a regular program and 79 in a retraining program. The first stage of the study involved the students receiving an explanation of the research, ensuring confidentiality, and signing informed consent. The students completed two questionnaires: The Student Attitudes Questionnaire and a sociodemographic questionnaire. In the second stage, three months after the workshop, the students completed the questionnaires again, along with a feedback questionnaire. Findings: The study found that there were no significant differences in the students' attitudes toward providing material support and proper financial management to families living in poverty before and after the workshop. However, their attitudes remained positive, at a medium level or higher. The students reported that the workshop provided them with tools to assist families in poverty, and they used these tools to some extent in their practical training. They found the workshop interesting and acknowledged its importance in raising awareness about budget management and enriching their knowledge of money management. The students acknowledged the workshop's effectiveness but mentioned that it was too short. Theoretical Importance: This study highlights the importance of developing programs to help families living in poverty manage their household finances. The workshop enriched the students' knowledge and skills, which are vital for their role as social workers working with families in poverty to rehabilitate their financial situations. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The students completed self-report questionnaires before and after the workshop, providing insights into their attitudes and perception about the role of social workers in providing material support for families living in poverty and helping them manage their household finances. Statistical analysis was conducted to compare the students' attitudes pre and post-workshop, and a feedback questionnaire assessed the students' perception of the contribution of the workshop. Question Addressed: This study addressed the question of whether a workshop on financial management can positively impact social work students' attitudes and skills in assisting families living in poverty with their household finances. Conclusion: Despite being short and consisting of only one session, the workshop proved to be valuable in enriching the students' knowledge and providing them with important tools for their role as social workers. The students reported positive attitudes toward providing material support and financial assistance to families in need. The practical recommendation is to continue offering such workshops as part of the social work curriculum to further enhance students' abilities to help families manage their finances effectively.

Keywords: financial literacy, poverty, social work students, workshop

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124 Evaluation of Correct Usage, Comfort and Fit of Personal Protective Equipment in Construction Work

Authors: Anna-Lisa Osvalder, Jonas Borell

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There are several reasons behind the use, non-use, or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the construction industry. Comfort and accurate size support proper use, while discomfort, misfit, and difficulties to understand how the PPEs should be handled inhibit correct usage. The need for several protective equipments simultaneously might also create problems. The purpose of this study was to analyse the correct usage, comfort, and fit of different types of PPEs used for construction work. Correct usage was analysed as guessability, i.e., human perceptions of how to don, adjust, use, and doff the equipment, and if used as intended. The PPEs tested individually or in combinations were a helmet, ear protectors, goggles, respiratory masks, gloves, protective cloths, and safety harnesses. First, an analytical evaluation was performed with ECW (enhanced cognitive walkthrough) and PUEA (predictive use error analysis) to search for usability problems and use errors during handling and use. Then usability tests were conducted to evaluate guessability, comfort, and fit with 10 test subjects of different heights and body constitutions. The tests included observations during donning, five different outdoor work tasks, and doffing. The think-aloud method, short interviews, and subjective estimations were performed. The analytical evaluation showed that some usability problems and use errors arise during donning and doffing, but with minor severity, mostly causing discomfort. A few use errors and usability problems arose for the safety harness, especially for novices, where some could lead to a high risk of severe incidents. The usability tests showed that discomfort arose for all test subjects when using a combination of PPEs, increasing over time. For instance, goggles, together with the face mask, caused pressure, chafing at the nose, and heat rash on the face. This combination also limited sight of vision. The helmet, in combination with the goggles and ear protectors, did not fit well and caused uncomfortable pressure at the temples. No major problems were found with the individual fit of the PPEs. The ear protectors, goggles, and face masks could be adjusted for different head sizes. The guessability for how to don and wear the combination of PPE was moderate, but it took some time to adjust them for a good fit. The guessability was poor for the safety harness; few clues in the design showed how it should be donned, adjusted, or worn on the skeletal bones. Discomfort occurred when the straps were tightened too much. All straps could not be adjusted for somebody's constitutions leading to non-optimal safety. To conclude, if several types of PPEs are used together, discomfort leading to pain is likely to occur over time, which can lead to misuse, non-use, or reduced performance. If people who are not regular users should wear a safety harness correctly, the design needs to be improved for easier interpretation, correct position of the straps, and increased possibilities for individual adjustments. The results from this study can be a base for re-design ideas for PPE, especially when they should be used in combinations.

Keywords: construction work, PPE, personal protective equipment, misuse, guessability, usability

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123 Assessing the Environmental Efficiency of China’s Power System: A Spatial Network Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Authors: Jianli Jiang, Bai-Chen Xie

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The climate issue has aroused global concern. Achieving sustainable development is a good path for countries to mitigate environmental and climatic pressures, although there are many difficulties. The first step towards sustainable development is to evaluate the environmental efficiency of the energy industry with proper methods. The power sector is a major source of CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions. Evaluating the environmental efficiency (EE) of power systems is the premise to alleviate the terrible situation of energy and the environment. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been widely used in efficiency studies. However, measuring the efficiency of a system (be it a nation, region, sector, or business) is a challenging task. The classic DEA takes the decision-making units (DMUs) as independent, which neglects the interaction between DMUs. While ignoring these inter-regional links may result in a systematic bias in the efficiency analysis; for instance, the renewable power generated in a certain region may benefit the adjacent regions while the SO2 and CO2 emissions act oppositely. This study proposes a spatial network DEA (SNDEA) with a slack measure that can capture the spatial spillover effects of inputs/outputs among DMUs to measure efficiency. This approach is used to study the EE of China's power system, which consists of generation, transmission, and distribution departments, using a panel dataset from 2014 to 2020. In the empirical example, the energy and patent inputs, the undesirable CO2 output, and the renewable energy (RE) power variables are tested for a significant spatial spillover effect. Compared with the classic network DEA, the SNDEA result shows an obvious difference tested by the global Moran' I index. From a dynamic perspective, the EE of the power system experiences a visible surge from 2015, then a sharp downtrend from 2019, which keeps the same trend with the power transmission department. This phenomenon benefits from the market-oriented reform in the Chinese power grid enacted in 2015. The rapid decline in the environmental efficiency of the transmission department in 2020 was mainly due to the Covid-19 epidemic, which hinders economic development seriously. While the EE of the power generation department witnesses a declining trend overall, this is reasonable, taking the RE power into consideration. The installed capacity of RE power in 2020 is 4.40 times that in 2014, while the power generation is 3.97 times; in other words, the power generation per installed capacity shrank. In addition, the consumption cost of renewable power increases rapidly with the increase of RE power generation. These two aspects make the EE of the power generation department show a declining trend. Incorporation of the interactions among inputs/outputs into the DEA model, this paper proposes an efficiency evaluation method on the basis of the DEA framework, which sheds some light on efficiency evaluation in regional studies. Furthermore, the SNDEA model and the spatial DEA concept can be extended to other fields, such as industry, country, and so on.

Keywords: spatial network DEA, environmental efficiency, sustainable development, power system

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122 3D-Mesh Robust Watermarking Technique for Ownership Protection and Authentication

Authors: Farhan A. Alenizi

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Digital watermarking has evolved in the past years as an important means for data authentication and ownership protection. The images and video watermarking was well known in the field of multimedia processing; however, 3D objects' watermarking techniques have emerged as an important means for the same purposes, as 3D mesh models are in increasing use in different areas of scientific, industrial, and medical applications. Like the image watermarking techniques, 3D watermarking can take place in either space or transform domains. Unlike images and video watermarking, where the frames have regular structures in both space and temporal domains, 3D objects are represented in different ways as meshes that are basically irregular samplings of surfaces; moreover, meshes can undergo a large variety of alterations which may be hard to tackle. This makes the watermarking process more challenging. While the transform domain watermarking is preferable in images and videos, they are still difficult to implement in 3d meshes due to the huge number of vertices involved and the complicated topology and geometry, and hence the difficulty to perform the spectral decomposition, even though significant work was done in the field. Spatial domain watermarking has attracted significant attention in the past years; they can either act on the topology or on the geometry of the model. Exploiting the statistical characteristics in the 3D mesh models from both geometrical and topological aspects was useful in hiding data. However, doing that with minimal surface distortions to the mesh attracted significant research in the field. A 3D mesh blind watermarking technique is proposed in this research. The watermarking method depends on modifying the vertices' positions with respect to the center of the object. An optimal method will be developed to reduce the errors, minimizing the distortions that the 3d object may experience due to the watermarking process, and reducing the computational complexity due to the iterations and other factors. The technique relies on the displacement process of the vertices' locations depending on the modification of the variances of the vertices’ norms. Statistical analyses were performed to establish the proper distributions that best fit each mesh, and hence establishing the bins sizes. Several optimizing approaches were introduced in the realms of mesh local roughness, the statistical distributions of the norms, and the displacements in the mesh centers. To evaluate the algorithm's robustness against other common geometry and connectivity attacks, the watermarked objects were subjected to uniform noise, Laplacian smoothing, vertices quantization, simplification, and cropping. Experimental results showed that the approach is robust in terms of both perceptual and quantitative qualities. It was also robust against both geometry and connectivity attacks. Moreover, the probability of true positive detection versus the probability of false-positive detection was evaluated. To validate the accuracy of the test cases, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn, and they’ve shown robustness from this aspect. 3D watermarking is still a new field but still a promising one.

Keywords: watermarking, mesh objects, local roughness, Laplacian Smoothing

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
121 User-Centered Design in the Development of Patient Decision Aids

Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
120 Antimicrobial and Aroma Finishing of Organic Cotton Knits Using Vetiver Oil Microcapsules for Health Care Textiles

Authors: K. J. Sannapapamma, H. Malligawad Lokanath, Sakeena Naikwadi

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Eco-friendly textiles are gaining importance among the consumers and textile manufacturers in the healthcare sector due to increased environmental pollution which leads to several health and environmental hazards. Hence, the research was designed to cultivate and develop the organic cotton knit, to prepare and characterize the Vetiver oil microcapsules for textile finishing and to access the wash durability of finished knits. The cotton SAHANA variety grown under organic production systems was processed and spun into 30 single yarn dyed with four natural colorants (Arecanut slurry, Eucalyptus leaves, Pomegranate rind and Indigo) and eco dyed yarn was further used for development of single jersy knitted fabric. Vetiveria zizanioides is an aromatic grass which is being traditionally used in medicine and perfumery. Vetiver essential oil was used for preparation of microcapsules by interfacial polymerization technique subjected to Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GCMS), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Thermo Gravimetric Analyzer (TGA) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) for characterization of microcapsules. The knitted fabric was finished with vetiver oil microcapsules by exhaust and pad dry cure methods. The finished organic knit was assessed for laundering on antimicrobial efficiency and aroma intensity. GCMS spectral analysis showed that, diethyl phthalate (28%) was the major compound found in vetiver oil followed by isoaromadendrene epoxide (7.72%), beta-vetivenene (6.92%), solavetivone (5.58%), aromadenderene, azulene and khusimol. Bioassay explained that, the vetiver oil and diluted vetiver oil possessed greater zone of inhibition against S. aureus and E. coli than the coconut oil. FTRI spectra of vetiver oil and microcapsules possessed similar peaks viz., C-H, C=C & C꞊O stretching and additionally oil microcapsules possessed the peak of 3331.24 cm-1 at 91.14 transmittance was attributed to N-H stretches. TGA of oil microcapsules revealed that, there was a minimum weight loss (5.835%) recorded at 467.09°C compared to vetiver oil i.e., -3.026% at the temperature of 396.24°C. The shape of the microcapsules was regular and round, some were spherical in shape and few were rounded by small aggregates. Irrespective of methods of application, organic cotton knits finished with microcapsules by pad dry cure method showed maximum zone of inhibition compared to knits finished by exhaust method against S. aureus and E. coli. The antimicrobial activity of the finished samples was subjected to multiple washing which indicated that knits finished with pad dry cure method showed a zone of inhibition even after 20th wash and better aroma retention compared to knits finished with the exhaust method of application. Further, the group of respondents rated that the 5th washed samples had the greater aroma intensity in both the methods than the other samples. Thus, the vetiver microencapsulated organic cotton knits are free from hazardous chemicals and have multi-functional properties that can be suitable for medical and healthcare textiles.

Keywords: exhaust and pad dry cure finishing, interfacial polymerization, organic cotton knits, vetiver oil microcapsules

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
119 Improved Soil and Snow Treatment with the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model for Regional and Global Weather Predictions

Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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118 In vitro Antioxidant Activity and Total Phenolic Content of Dillenia indica and Garcinia penducalata, Commonly Used Fruits in Assamese Cuisine

Authors: M. Das, B. P. Sarma, G. Ahmed

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Human diet can be a major source of antioxidants. Poly¬phenols, which are organic compounds present in the regular human diet, have good antioxidant property. Most of the diseases are detected too late and that cause irre¬versible damage to the body. Therefore food that forms the natural source of antioxidants can prevent free radi¬cals from damaging our body tissues. Dillenia indica and Garcinia penducalata are two major fruits, easily available in Assam, North eastern Indian state. In the present study, the in vitro antioxi¬dant properties of the fruits of these plants are compared as the decoction of these fruits form a major part of Assamese cuisine. DPPH free radical scavenging activity of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of G. penducalata and D. indica fruits were carried out by the methods of Cotelle A et al. (1996). Different concentrations ranging from 10–110 ug/ml of the extracts were added to 100 uM of DPPH (2,2, Diphenyl-2-picryl hydrazyl) and the absor¬bance was read at 517 nm after incubation. Ascorbic acid was used as the standard. Different concentrations of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of G. penducalata and D. indica fruits were mixed with sodium nitroprusside and incubated. Griess reagent was added to the mixtures and their optical density was read at 546 nm following the method of Marcocci et al. (1994). Ascorbic acid was used as the standard. In order to find the scavenging activity of the extracts against hydroxyl radicals, the method of Kunchandy & Ohkawa (1990) was followed.The superoxide scavenging activity of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of the fruits was deter¬mined by the method of Robak & Gryglewski (1998).Six replicates were maintained in each of the experiments and their SEM was evaluated based on which, non linear regres¬sion (curve fit), exponential growth were derived to calculate the IC50 values of the SAWE and standard compounds. All the statistical analyses were done by using paired t test. The hydroxyl radical scavenging activity of the various extracts of D. indica exhibited IC50 values < 110 ug/ml concentration, the scavenging activity of the extracts of G. penducalata was surprisingly>110 ug/ml.Similarly the oxygen free radical scavenging activity of the different extracts of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value of <110 ug/ml but the methanolic extract of the same exhib¬ited a better free radical scavenging activity compared to that of vitamin C. The methanolic extract of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value better than that of vitamin C. The DPPH scavenging activities of the various extracts of D. indica and G. penducalata were <110 ug/ml but the methanolic extract of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value bet¬ter than that of vitaminc C.The higher amounts of phenolic content in the methanolic extract of D. indica might be one of the major causes for its enhanced in vitro antioxidant activity.The present study concludes that Dillenia indica and Garcinia penducalata both possesses anti oxidant activi¬ties. The anti oxidant activity of Dillenia indica is superior to that of Garcinia penducalata due to its higher phenolic content

Keywords: antioxidants, free radicals, phenolic, scavenging

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117 The United States Film Industry and Its Impact on Latin American Identity Rationalizations

Authors: Alfonso J. García Osuna

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Background and Significance: The objective of this paper is to analyze the inception and development of identity archetypes in early XX century Latin America, to explore their roots in United States culture, to discuss the influences that came to bear upon Latin Americans as the United States began to export images of standard identity paradigms through its film industry, and to survey how these images evolved and impacted Latin Americans’ ideas of national distinctiveness from the early 1900s to the present. Therefore, the general hypothesis of this work is that United States film in many ways influenced national identity patterning in its neighbors, especially in those nations closest to its borders, Cuba and Mexico. Very little research has been done on the social impact of the United States film industry on the country’s southern neighbors. From a historical perspective, the US’s influence has been examined as the projection of political and economic power, that is to say, that American influence is seen as a catalyst to align the forces that the US wants to see wield the power of the State. But the subtle yet powerful cultural influence exercised by film, the eminent medium for exporting ideas and ideals in the XX century, has not been significantly explored. Basic Methodologies and Description: Gramscian Marxist theory underpins the study, where it is argued that film, as an exceptional vehicle for culture, is an important site of political and social struggle; in this context, it aims to show how United States capitalist structures of power not only use brute force to generate and maintain control of overseas markets, but also promote their ideas through artistic products such as film in order to infiltrate the popular culture of subordinated peoples. In this same vein, the work of neo-Marxist theoreticians of popular culture is employed in order to contextualize the agency of subordinated peoples in the process of cultural assimilations. Indication of the Major Findings of the Study: The study has yielded much data of interest. The salient finding is that each particular nation receives United States film according to its own particular social and political context, regardless of the amount of pressure exerted upon it. An example of this is the unmistakable dissimilarity between Cuban and Mexican reception of US films. The positive reception given in Cuba to American film has to do with the seamless acceptance of identity paradigms that, for historical reasons discussed herein, were incorporated into the national identity grid quite unproblematically. Such is not the case with Mexico, whose express rejection of identity paradigms offered by the United States reflects not only past conflicts with the northern neighbor, but an enduring recognition of the country’s indigenous roots, one that precluded such paradigms. Concluding Statement: This paper is an endeavor to elucidate the ways in which US film contributed to the outlining of Latin American identity blueprints, offering archetypes that would be accepted or rejected according to each nation’s particular social requirements, constraints and ethnic makeup.

Keywords: film studies, United States, Latin America, identity studies

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116 Post Harvest Fungi Diversity and Level of Aflatoxin Contamination in Stored Maize: Cases of Kitui, Nakuru and Trans-Nzoia Counties in Kenya

Authors: Gachara Grace, Kebira Anthony, Harvey Jagger, Wainaina James

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Aflatoxin contamination of maize in Africa poses a major threat to food security and the health of many African people. In Kenya, aflatoxin contamination of maize is high due to the environmental, agricultural and socio-economic factors. Many studies have been conducted to understand the scope of the problem, especially at pre-harvest level. This research was carried out to gather scientific information on the fungi population, diversity and aflatoxin level during the post-harvest period. The study was conducted in three geographical locations of; Kitui, Kitale and Nakuru. Samples were collected from storage structures of farmers and transported to the Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecA), International Livestock and Research Institute (ILRI) hub laboratories. Mycoflora was recovered using the direct plating method. A total of five fungal genera (Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium, Rhizopus and Bssyochlamys spp.) were isolated from the stored maize samples. The most common fungal species that were isolated from the three study sites included A. flavus at 82.03% followed by A.niger and F.solani at 49% and 26% respectively. The aflatoxin producing fungi A. flavus was recovered in 82.03% of the samples. Aflatoxin levels were analysed on both the maize samples and in vitro. Most of the A. flavus isolates recorded a high level of aflatoxin when they were analysed for presence of aflatoxin B1 using ELISA. In Kitui, all the samples (100%) had aflatoxin levels above 10ppb with a total aflatoxin mean of 219.2ppb. In Kitale, only 3 samples (n=39) had their aflatoxin levels less than 10ppb while in Nakuru, the total aflatoxin mean level of this region was 239.7ppb. When individual samples were analysed using Vicam fluorometer method, aflatoxin analysis revealed that most of the samples (58.4%) had been contaminated. The means were significantly different (p=0.00<0.05) in all the three locations. Genetic relationships of A. flavus isolates were determined using 13 Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) markers. The results were used to generate a phylogenetic tree using DARwin5 software program. A total of 5 distinct clusters were revealed among the genotypes. The isolates appeared to cluster separately according to the geographical locations. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) of the genetic distances among the 91 A. flavus isolates explained over 50.3% of the total variation when two coordinates were used to cluster the isolates. Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) showed a high variation of 87% within populations and 13% among populations. This research has shown that A. flavus is the main fungal species infecting maize grains in Kenya. The influence of aflatoxins on human populations in Kenya demonstrates a clear need for tools to manage contamination of locally produced maize. Food basket surveys for aflatoxin contamination should be conducted on a regular basis. This would assist in obtaining reliable data on aflatoxin incidence in different food crops. This would go a long way in defining control strategies for this menace.

Keywords: aflatoxin, Aspergillus flavus, genotyping, Kenya

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115 Clinical Validation of an Automated Natural Language Processing Algorithm for Finding COVID-19 Symptoms and Complications in Patient Notes

Authors: Karolina Wieczorek, Sophie Wiliams

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Introduction: Patient data is often collected in Electronic Health Record Systems (EHR) for purposes such as providing care as well as reporting data. This information can be re-used to validate data models in clinical trials or in epidemiological studies. Manual validation of automated tools is vital to pick up errors in processing and to provide confidence in the output. Mentioning a disease in a discharge letter does not necessarily mean that a patient suffers from this disease. Many of them discuss a diagnostic process, different tests, or discuss whether a patient has a certain disease. The COVID-19 dataset in this study used natural language processing (NLP), an automated algorithm which extracts information related to COVID-19 symptoms, complications, and medications prescribed within the hospital. Free-text patient clinical patient notes are rich sources of information which contain patient data not captured in a structured form, hence the use of named entity recognition (NER) to capture additional information. Methods: Patient data (discharge summary letters) were exported and screened by an algorithm to pick up relevant terms related to COVID-19. Manual validation of automated tools is vital to pick up errors in processing and to provide confidence in the output. A list of 124 Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) Clinical Terms has been provided in Excel with corresponding IDs. Two independent medical student researchers were provided with a dictionary of SNOMED list of terms to refer to when screening the notes. They worked on two separate datasets called "A” and "B”, respectively. Notes were screened to check if the correct term had been picked-up by the algorithm to ensure that negated terms were not picked up. Results: Its implementation in the hospital began on March 31, 2020, and the first EHR-derived extract was generated for use in an audit study on June 04, 2020. The dataset has contributed to large, priority clinical trials (including International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) by bulk upload to REDcap research databases) and local research and audit studies. Successful sharing of EHR-extracted datasets requires communicating the provenance and quality, including completeness and accuracy of this data. The results of the validation of the algorithm were the following: precision (0.907), recall (0.416), and F-score test (0.570). Percentage enhancement with NLP extracted terms compared to regular data extraction alone was low (0.3%) for relatively well-documented data such as previous medical history but higher (16.6%, 29.53%, 30.3%, 45.1%) for complications, presenting illness, chronic procedures, acute procedures respectively. Conclusions: This automated NLP algorithm is shown to be useful in facilitating patient data analysis and has the potential to be used in more large-scale clinical trials to assess potential study exclusion criteria for participants in the development of vaccines.

Keywords: automated, algorithm, NLP, COVID-19

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114 Participatory Action Research with Social Workers: The World Café Method to Share Critical Reflections and Possible Solutions on Working Practices in Migration Contexts

Authors: Ilaria Coppola, Davide Lacqua, Nadia Ranìa

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Over the past two decades, migration has gained central importance in the global landscape. Europe hosts the largest number of migrants, totaling 92.9 million people, approximately 37.4 million of whom are regular residents within the European Union's borders. Reception services and different modes of management have received increasing attention precisely because of the complexity of the phenomenon, which necessarily impacts the wider community. Indeed, opening a reception center in an area entails major challenges for that context, for the community that inhabits it, and for the people who use that service. Questioning the strategies needed to offer a functional reception service means listening to the different actors involved who daily face the difficulties involved in working in the field. Recognizing the importance of the professional figures who work closely with migrant people, each with their own specific experiences has led researchers to study and analyze the different types of reception centers and their management. This has led to the development of intervention models and best practices in various countries. However, research from this perspective is still limited, especially in Italy. From this theoretical framework, this study aims to bring out an innovative qualitative tool, such as the world café, the work experiences of 29 social workers working in shelters in the Italian context. Most of the participants were female and lived in the Northwest regions of Italy. Through this tool, the aim was to bring out and share reflections on the critical issues encountered in working in reception centers, with a view to identifying possible solutions for better management of services. The World café represents a tool used in participatory action research that promotes dialogue among participants through the sharing of reflections and ideas. In fact, from critical reflections, participants are invited to identify and share possible solutions to provide a more functional service with benefits to the entire community. Therefore, this research, through the innovative technique of the World café, aims to promote critical thinking processes that can help participants find solutions that can be introduced into their work contexts or proposed to decision-makers. Specifically, the findings shed light on several issues, including complex bureaucratic procedures, insufficient project planning, and inefficiencies in the services provided to migrants. These concerns collectively contribute to what participants perceive as a disorganized and uncoordinated system. In addition, the study explores potential solutions that promote more efficient networking practices, coordinated project management, and a more positive approach to cultural diversity. The main results obtained will be discussed with a focus on critical reflections and possible solutions identified.

Keywords: participatory action research, world café method, reception services, migration contexts, social workers, Italy

Procedia PDF Downloads 35
113 Prevalence, Antimicrobial Susceptibility Pattern and Public Health Significance for Staphylococcus aureus of Isolated From Raw Red Meat at Butchery and Abattoir House in Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Haftay Abraha Tadesse

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Background: Staphylococcus is a genus of worldwide distributed bacteria correlated to several infectious of different sites in human and animals. They are among the most important causes of infection that are associated with the consumption of contaminated food. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the isolates, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and public health significance for Staphylococcus aureus in raw meat from butchery and abattoir houses of Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted from April to October 2019. Sociodemographic data and public health significance were collected using predesigned questionnaire. The raw meat samples were collected aseptically in the butchery and abattoir houses and transported using ice box to Mekelle University, College of Veterinary Sciences for isolating and identification of Staphylococcus aureus. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were determined by disc diffusion method. Data obtained were cleaned and entered in to STATA 22.0 and logistic regression model with odds ratio were calculated to assess the association of risk factors with bacterial contamination. P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: In present study, 88 out of 250 (35.2%) were found to be contamination with Staphylococcus aureus. Among the raw meat specimens to be positivity rate of Staphylococcus aureus were 37.6% (n=47) and (32.8% (n=41), butchery and abattoir houses, respectively. Among the associated risk factories not using gloves reduces risk was found to (AOR=0.222; 95% CI: 0.104-0.473), Strict Separation b/n clean & dirty (AOR= 1.37; 95% CI: 0.66-2.86) and poor habit of hand washing (AOR=1.08; 95%CI: 0.35-3.35) were found to be statistically significant and ha ve associated with Staphylococcus aureus contamination. All isolates thirty sevevn of Staphyloco ccus aureus were checked displayed (100%) sensitive to doxycycline, trimethoprim, gentamicin, sulphamethoxazole, amikacin, CN, Co trimoxazole and nitrofurantoi. whereas the showed resistance of cefotaxime (100%), ampicillin (87.5%), Penicillin (75%), B (75%), and nalidixic acid (50%) from butchery houses. On the other hand, all isolates of Staphylococcus aur eu isolate 100% (n= 10) showed sensitive chloramphenicol, gentamicin and nitrofurantoin whereas the showed 100% resistance of Penicillin, B, AMX, ceftriaxone, ampicillin and cefotaxime from abattoirs houses. The overall multi drug resistance pattern for Staphylococcus aureus were 90% and 100% of butchery and abattoirs houses, respectively. Conclusion: 35.3% Staphylococcus aureus isolated were recovered from the raw meat samples collected from the butchery and abattoirs houses. More has to be done in the developed of hand washing behavior, and availability of safe water in the butchery houses to reduce burden of bacterial contamination. The results of the present finding highlight the need to implement protective measures against the levels of food contamination and alternative drug options. The development of antimicrobial resistance is nearly always as a result of repeated therapeutic and/or indiscriminate use of them. Regular antimicrobial sensitivity testing helps to select effective antibiotics and to reduce the problems of drug resistance development towards commonly used antibiotics. Key words: abattoir houses, antimicrobial resistance, butchery houses, Ethiopia,

Keywords: abattoir houses, antimicrobial resistance, butchery houses, Ethiopia, staphylococcus aureuse, MDR

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
112 Assessing the Risk of Socio-economic Drought: A Case Study of Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, China

Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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111 Association between Physical Inactivity and Sedentary Behaviours with Risk of Hypertension among Sedentary Occupation Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Hanan Badr, Fahad Manee, Rao Shashidhar, Omar Bayoumy

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Introduction: Hypertension is the major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and stroke and a universe leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and mortality. Adopting an unhealthy lifestyle is thought to be associated with developing hypertension regardless of predisposing genetic factors. This study aimed to examine the association between recreational physical activity (RPA), and sedentary behaviors with a risk of hypertension among ministry employees, where there is no role for occupational physical activity (PA), and to scrutinize participants’ time spent in RPA and sedentary behaviors on the working and weekend days. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 2562 employees working at ten randomly selected ministries in Kuwait. To have a representative sample, the proportional allocation technique was used to define the number of participants in each ministry. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data about participants' socio-demographic characteristics, health status, and their 24 hours’ time use during a regular working day and a weekend day. The time use covered a list of 20 different activities practiced by a person daily. The New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (NZPAQ-SF) was used to assess the level of RPA. The scale generates three categories according to the number of hours spent in RPA/week: relatively inactive, relatively active, and highly active. Gender-matched trained nurses performed anthropometric measurements (weight and height) and measuring blood pressure (two readings) using an automatic blood pressure monitor (95% accuracy level compared to a calibrated mercury sphygmomanometer). Results: Participants’ mean age was 35.3±8.4 years, with almost equal gender distribution. About 13% of the participants were smokers, and 75% were overweight. Almost 10% reported doctor-diagnosed hypertension. Among those who did not, the mean systolic blood pressure was 119.9±14.2 and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 80.9±7.3. Moreover, 73.9% of participants were relatively physically inactive and 18% were highly active. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a significant inverse association with the level of RPA (means of blood pressure measures were: 123.3/82.8 among relatively inactive, 119.7/80.4 among relatively active, and 116.6/79.6 among highly active). Furthermore, RPA occupied 1.6% and 1.8% of working and weekend days, respectively, while sedentary behaviors (watching TV, using electronics for social media or entertaining, etc.) occupied 11.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Sedentary behaviors were significantly associated with high levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Binary logistic regression revealed that physical inactivity (OR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.25-4.35) and sedentary behaviors (OR=2.25, CI: 1.45-3.17) were independent risk factors for high systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyle were associated with a high risk of hypertension. Further research to examine the independent role of RPA in improving blood pressure levels and cultural and occupational barriers for practicing RPA are recommended. Policies should be enacted in promoting PA in the workplace that might help in decreasing the risk of hypertension among sedentary occupation workers.

Keywords: physical activity, sedentary behaviors, hypertension, workplace

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
110 Outdoor Thermal Comfort Strategies: The Case of Cool Facades

Authors: Noelia L. Alchapar, Cláudia C. Pezzuto, Erica N. Correa

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Mitigating urban overheating is key to achieving the environmental and energy sustainability of cities. The management of the optical properties of the materials that make up the urban envelope -roofing, pavement, and facades- constitutes a profitable and effective tool to improve the urban microclimate and rehabilitate urban areas. Each material that makes up the urban envelope has a different capacity to reflect received solar radiation, which alters the fraction of solar radiation absorbed by the city. However, the paradigm of increasing solar reflectance in all areas of the city without distinguishing their relative position within the urban canyon can cause serious problems of overheating and discomfort among its inhabitants. The hypothesis that supports the research postulates that not all reflective technologies that contribute to urban radiative cooling favor the thermal comfort conditions of pedestrians to equal measure. The objective of this work is to determine to what degree the management of the optical properties of the facades modifies outdoor thermal comfort, given that the mitigation potential of materials with high reflectance in facades is strongly conditioned by geographical variables and by the geometric characteristics of the urban profile aspect ratio (H/W). This research was carried out under two climatic contexts, that of the city of Mendoza-Argentina and that of the city of Campinas-Brazil, according to the Köppen climate classification: BWk and Cwa, respectively. Two areas in two different climatic contexts (Mendoza - Argentina and Campinas - Brazil) were selected. Both areas have comparable urban morphology patterns. These areas are located in a region with low horizontal building density and residential zoning. The microclimatic conditions were monitored during the summer period with temperature and humidity fixed sensors inside vial channels. The microclimate model was simulated in ENVI-Met V5. A grid resolution of 3.5 x 3.5 x 3.5m was used for both cities, totaling an area of 145x145x30 grids. Based on the validated theoretical model, ten scenarios were simulated, modifying the height of buildings and the solar reflectivity of facades. The solar reflectivity façades ranges were: low (0.3) and high (0.75). The density scenarios range from 1th to the 5th level. The study scenarios' performance was assessed by comparing the air temperature, physiological equivalent temperature (PET), and thermal climate index (UTCI). As a result, it is observed that the behavior of the materials of the urban outdoor space depends on complex interactions. Many urban environmental factors influence including constructive characteristics, urban morphology, geographic locations, local climate, and so forth. The role of the vertical urban envelope is decisive for the reduction of urban overheating. One of the causes of thermal gain is the multiple reflections within the urban canyon, which affects not only the air temperature but also the pedestrian thermal comfort. One of the main findings of this work leads to the remarkable importance of considering both the urban warming and the thermal comfort aspects of pedestrians in urban mitigation strategies.

Keywords: materials facades, solar reflectivity, thermal comfort, urban cooling

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109 Mediating Role of 'Investment Recovery' and 'Competitiveness' on the Impact of Green Supply Chain Management Practices over Firm Performance: An Empirical Study Based on Textile Industry of Pakistan

Authors: Mehwish Jawaad

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Purpose: The concept of GrSCM (Green Supply Chain Management) in the academic and research field is still thought to be in the development stage especially in Asian Emerging Economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute significantly to the first wave of empirical investigation on GrSCM Practices and Firm Performance measures in Pakistan. The aim of this research is to develop a more holistic approach towards investigating the impact of Green Supply Chain Management Practices (Ecodesign, Internal Environmental Management systems, Green Distribution, Green Purchasing and Cooperation with Customers) on multiple dimensions of Firm Performance Measures (Economic Performance, Environmental Performance and Operational Performance) with a mediating role of Investment Recovery and Competitiveness. This paper also serves as an initiative to identify if the relationship between Investment Recovery and Firm Performance Measures is mediated by Competitiveness. Design/ Methodology/Approach: This study is based on survey Data collected from 272, ISO (14001) Certified Textile Firms Based in Lahore, Faisalabad, and Karachi which are involved in Spinning, Dyeing, Printing or Bleaching. A Theoretical model was developed incorporating the constructs representing Green Activities and Firm Performance Measures of a firm. The data was analyzed using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling. Senior and Mid-level managers provided the data reflecting the degree to which their organizations deal with both internal and external stakeholders to improve the environmental sustainability of their supply chain. Findings: Of the 36 proposed Hypothesis, 20 are considered valid and significant. The statistics result reveal that GrSCM practices positively impact Environmental Performance followed by Economic and Operational Performance. Investment Recovery acts as a strong mediator between Intra organizational Green activities and performance outcomes. The relationship of Reverse Logistics influencing outcomes is significantly mediated by Competitiveness. The pressure originating from customers exert significant positive influence on the firm to adopt Green Practices consequently leading to higher outcomes. Research Contribution/Originality: Underpinning the Resource dependence theory and as a first wave of investigating the impact of Green Supply chain on performance outcomes in Pakistan, this study intends to make a prominent mark in the field of research. Investment and Competitiveness together are tested as a mediator for the first time in this arena. Managerial implications: Practitioner is provided with a framework for assessing the synergistic impact of GrSCM practices on performance. Upgradation of Accreditations and Audit Programs on regular basis are the need of the hour. Making the processes leaner with the sale of excess inventories and scrap helps the firm to work more efficiently and productively.

Keywords: economic performance, environmental performance, green supply chain management practices, operational performance, sustainability, a textile sector of Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
108 Vortex Generation to Model the Airflow Downstream of a Piezoelectric Fan Array

Authors: Alastair Hales, Xi Jiang, Siming Zhang

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Numerical methods are used to generate vortices in a domain. Through considered design, two counter-rotating vortices may interact and effectively drive one another downstream. This phenomenon is comparable to the vortex interaction that occurs in a region immediately downstream from two counter-oscillating piezoelectric (PE) fan blades. PE fans are small blades clamped at one end and driven to oscillate at their first natural frequency by an extremely low powered actuator. In operation, the high oscillation amplitude and frequency generate sufficient blade tip speed through the surrounding air to create downstream air flow. PE fans are considered an ideal solution for low power hot spot cooling in a range of small electronic devices, but a single blade does not typically induce enough air flow to be considered a direct alternative to conventional air movers, such as axial fans. The development of face-to-face PE fan arrays containing multiple blades oscillating in counter-phase to one another is essential for expanding the range of potential PE fan applications regarding the cooling of power electronics. Even in an unoptimised state, these arrays are capable of moving air volumes comparable to axial fans with less than 50% of the power demand. Replicating the airflow generated by face-to-face PE fan arrays without including the actual blades in the model reduces the process’s computational demands and enhances the rate of innovation and development in the field. Vortices are generated at a defined inlet using a time-dependent velocity profile function, which pulsates the inlet air velocity magnitude. This induces vortex generation in the considered domain, and these vortices are shown to separate and propagate downstream in a regular manner. The generation and propagation of a single vortex are compared to an equivalent vortex generated from a PE fan blade in a previous experimental investigation. Vortex separation is found to be accurately replicated in the present numerical model. Additionally, the downstream trajectory of the vortices’ centres vary by just 10.5%, and size and strength of the vortices differ by a maximum of 10.6%. Through non-dimensionalisation, the numerical method is shown to be valid for PE fan blades with differing parameters to the specific case investigated. The thorough validation methods presented verify that the numerical model may be used to replicate vortex formation from an oscillating PE fans blade. An investigation is carried out to evaluate the effects of varying the distance between two PE fan blade, pitch. At small pitch, the vorticity in the domain is maximised, along with turbulence in the near vicinity of the inlet zones. It is proposed that face-to-face PE fan arrays, oscillating in counter-phase, should have a minimal pitch to optimally cool nearby heat sources. On the other hand, downstream airflow is maximised at a larger pitch, where the vortices can fully form and effectively drive one another downstream. As such, this should be implemented when bulk airflow generation is the desired result.

Keywords: piezoelectric fans, low energy cooling, vortex formation, computational fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
107 Stock Prediction and Portfolio Optimization Thesis

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
106 Characterization of Bio-Inspired Thermoelastoplastic Composites Filled with Modified Cellulose Fibers

Authors: S. Cichosz, A. Masek

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A new cellulose hybrid modification approach, which is undoubtedly a scientific novelty, is introduced. The study reports the properties of cellulose (Arbocel UFC100 – Ultra Fine Cellulose) and characterizes cellulose filled polymer composites based on an ethylene-norbornene copolymer (TOPAS Elastomer E-140). Moreover, the approach of physicochemical two-stage cellulose treatment is introduced: solvent exchange (to ethanol or hexane) and further chemical modification with maleic anhydride (MA). Furthermore, the impact of the drying process on cellulose properties was investigated. Suitable measurements were carried out to characterize cellulose fibers: spectroscopic investigation (Fourier Transform Infrared Spektrofotometer-FTIR, Near InfraRed spectroscopy-NIR), thermal analysis (Differential scanning calorimetry, Thermal gravimetric analysis ) and Karl Fischer titration. It should be emphasized that for all UFC100 treatments carried out, a decrease in moisture content was evidenced. FT-IR reveals a drop in absorption band intensity at 3334 cm-1, the peak is associated with both –OH moieties and water. Similar results were obtained with Karl Fischer titration. Based on the results obtained, it may be claimed that the employment of ethanol contributes greatly to the lowering of cellulose water absorption ability (decrease of moisture content to approximately 1.65%). Additionally, regarding polymer composite properties, crucial data has been obtained from the mechanical and thermal analysis. The highest material performance was noted in the case of the composite sample that contained cellulose modified with MA after a solvent exchange with ethanol. This specimen exhibited sufficient tensile strength, which is almost the same as that of the neat polymer matrix – in the region of 40 MPa. Moreover, both the Payne effect and filler efficiency factor, calculated based on dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), reveal the possibility of the filler having a reinforcing nature. What is also interesting is that, according to the Payne effect results, fibers dried before the further chemical modification are assumed to allow more regular filler structure development in the polymer matrix (Payne effect maximum at 1.60 MPa), compared with those not dried (Payne effect in the range 0.84-1.26 MPa). Furthermore, taking into consideration the data gathered from DSC and TGA, higher thermal stability is obtained in case of the materials filled with fibers that were dried before the carried out treatments (degradation activation energy in the region of 195 kJ/mol) in comparison with the polymer composite samples filled with unmodified cellulose (degradation activation energy of approximately 180 kJ/mol). To author’s best knowledge this work results in the introduction of a novel, new filler hybrid treatment approach. Moreover, valuable data regarding the properties of composites filled with cellulose fibers of various moisture contents have been provided. It should be emphasized that plant fiber-based polymer bio-materials described in this research might contribute significantly to polymer waste minimization because they are more readily degraded.

Keywords: cellulose fibers, solvent exchange, moisture content, ethylene-norbornene copolymer

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
105 Nature of Forest Fragmentation Owing to Human Population along Elevation Gradient in Different Countries in Hindu Kush Himalaya Mountains

Authors: Pulakesh Das, Mukunda Dev Behera, Manchiraju Sri Ramachandra Murthy

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Large numbers of people living in and around the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, depends on this diverse mountainous region for ecosystem services. Following the global trend, this region also experiencing rapid population growth, and demand for timber and agriculture land. The eight countries sharing the HKH region have different forest resources utilization and conservation policies that exert varying forces in the forest ecosystem. This created a variable spatial as well altitudinal gradient in rate of deforestation and corresponding forest patch fragmentation. The quantitative relationship between fragmentation and demography has not been established before for HKH vis-à-vis along elevation gradient. This current study was carried out to attribute the overall and different nature in landscape fragmentations along the altitudinal gradient with the demography of each sharing countries. We have used the tree canopy cover data derived from Landsat data to analyze the deforestation and afforestation rate, and corresponding landscape fragmentation observed during 2000 – 2010. Area-weighted mean radius of gyration (AMN radius of gyration) was computed owing to its advantage as spatial indicator of fragmentation over non-spatial fragmentation indices. Using the subtraction method, the change in fragmentation was computed during 2000 – 2010. Using the tree canopy cover data as a surrogate of forest cover, highest forest loss was observed in Myanmar followed by China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. However, the sequence of fragmentation was different after the maximum fragmentation observed in Myanmar followed by India, China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan; whereas increase in fragmentation was seen following the sequence of as Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Using SRTM-derived DEM, we observed higher rate of fragmentation up to 2400m that corroborated with high human population for the year 2000 and 2010. To derive the nature of fragmentation along the altitudinal gradients, the Statistica software was used, where the user defined function was utilized for regression applying the Gauss-Newton estimation method with 50 iterations. We observed overall logarithmic decrease in fragmentation change (area-weighted mean radius of gyration), forest cover loss and population growth during 2000-2010 along the elevation gradient with very high R2 values (i.e., 0.889, 0.895, 0.944 respectively). The observed negative logarithmic function with the major contribution in the initial elevation gradients suggest to gap filling afforestation in the lower altitudes to enhance the forest patch connectivity. Our finding on the pattern of forest fragmentation and human population across the elevation gradient in HKH region will have policy level implication for different nations and would help in characterizing hotspots of change. Availability of free satellite derived data products on forest cover and DEM, grid-data on demography, and utility of geospatial tools helped in quick evaluation of the forest fragmentation vis-a-vis human impact pattern along the elevation gradient in HKH.

Keywords: area-weighted mean radius of gyration, fragmentation, human impact, tree canopy cover

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
104 Dental Caries among Children in Bazartete, Timor-Leste and the impact of Maluk Timor School Outreach Program

Authors: A. Flaviana da Silva, B. Jenifer Apriani Ximenes, C. Efigenia dos Santos Pereira

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The World Health Organization's 2022 Global Oral Health Status Report reveals a staggering statistic: more than 3.5 billion people, or half of the world's population, currently suffer from untreated oral diseases, encompassing issues like tooth loss, gum disease, and oral cancers. Among these, dental caries, commonly known as tooth decay, affects over 2.5 billion people globally. Dental caries result from acid erosion of teeth due to plaque build-up and consumption of free sugars. Despite being preventable through basic measures such as regular tooth-brushing with fluoride toothpaste and reduced sugar intake, untreated dental caries poses a significant and growing public health crisis. In children, dental caries stands as the most prevalent non-communicable disease worldwide, affecting 60-90% of school children to some extent. This condition severely impacts their physical, emotional, and social well-being, hindering essential activities and overall quality of life. Timor-Leste, a small nation in South-east Asia, grapples with the escalating problem of childhood dental caries, exacerbated by its unique challenges including poor access to healthcare services and limited resources. Methods: This study analysed Secondary, cross-sectional data collected by Maluk Timor in 2022 during the School Outreach Program. A total of 1,008 children aged 4-16 from eight primary schools in the Bazartete administrative post were examined for dental caries in their primary and permanent teeth. All students were invited to participate, and consent was obtained from parents and children. A team comprising one dentist and two dental nurses conducted health promotion sessions, dental examinations, and SDF treatment. A screening form based on WHO guidelines collected demographic data and caries diagnosis, categorized as decayed or healthy. Data analysis involved entering the data into Google Sheets, verifying its accuracy, and importing it into Microsoft Excel for analysis. Variables were created to identify students with carious lesions, and prevalence tables were generated, stratified by age group, gender, and location. Results: Among the 1,008 children analysed, 58.3% had dental caries. Caries prevalence was higher in primary teeth (36.7%) compared to permanent teeth (29.5%). Conclusion: In summary, this report highlights the alarming prevalence of dental caries among children in Timor-Leste and the efforts of Maluk Timor's School Outreach Program in addressing this critical issue. The results emphasize the need for effective preventive measures and improved access to oral healthcare in this region.

Keywords: dental caries, timor-leste, oral health, children, public health, primary health care, teeth

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103 The Use of Graphic Design Elements for Design of Newspaper for Women

Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

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This paper has its objectives to reveal contents and personality suitable to women’s newspapers. The research methodology employed in this study is the questionnaire which is derived from a literature review related to newspapers, graphic elements method for print media design and 12 sample sizes of different daily newspapers. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding and comprehensible view of desirable for a women’s newspaper design, graphic elements that related to that personality as well as other preferable elements for a women’s newspaper, including seven editorial Many Thai newspapers were offer a women’s documentary and column space. With its feminine looks, most of them appeared with warm tones and friendly mood through their headlines, contents, illustrations and graphics. The study found that most desirable personalities for a women’s newspaper design in Thailand are: Modern, Chic and Natural. Each personality has significant graphic elements as follows: 1. Modern: significant elements of modern personality comprises of the composition with graduation pattern which creates attractiveness by using an anomalous alignment layout grid and outstanding structure to create focal points and dynamic movement. Dark to black color that has narrowed, limited hue coupled with bright color tones. The round shape of the Thai font style was suitable for this concept. Such Thai fonts have harmonious proportion and consistent stroke with the urban-polite look. 2. Chic: significant elements of chic personality comprises of the proper composition with distinctive scale, using rhythmic repetition and a contrast of scale to draw in reader attention. Vivid and bright color tones with extensive hues coupled with similar color tones and round shape of the Thai font style with a light stroke and consistent line. 3. Natural: significant elements of natural personality comprises of the proper composition using rhythmic repetition that creates a focal point through striking images and harmonious perspective. Warm color tones with restricted hues that appear to look natural. Duo tone color was suitable through the gradually increasing gradient. The Thai style with hand writing font was suitable through the inconsistent stroke. There are 10 types of daily content that were revealed to be the most desirable for Thai women readers, these are: Daily News, Economics News, Education News, Entertainment News, International news, Political News, Public Health News, Scientific News, Social News and Sports News. As well, there are 16 topics identified as very desirable for Thai women readers, such as: Art and Culture, Automobile, Classified, Special Scoop, Editorial, Advertisement, Entertainment, Health and Quality of Life, History, Horoscope, Lifestyle and Fashion, Literature, Nature - Environment and Tourism, Night Life, Stars and Jet Set Gossip, Women’s Issue.

Keywords: women behaviors, feminine looks, newspaper design, news content

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
102 Effect of Toxic Metals Exposure on Rat Behavior and Brain Morphology: Arsenic, Manganese

Authors: Tamar Bikashvili, Tamar Lordkipanidze, Ilia Lazrishvili

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Heavy metals remain one of serious environmental problems due to their toxic effects. The effect of arsenic and manganese compounds on rat behavior and neuromorphology was studied. Wistar rats were assigned to four groups: rats in control group were given regular water, while rats in other groups drank water with final manganese concentration of 10 mg/L (group A), 20 mg/L (group B) and final arsenic concentration 68 mg/L (group C), respectively, for a month. To study exploratory and anxiety behavior and also to evaluate aggressive performance in “home cage” rats were tested in “Open Field” and to estimate learning and memory status multi-branched maze was used. Statistically significant increase of motor and oriental-searching activity in experimental groups was revealed by an open field test, which was expressed in increase of number of lines crossed, rearing and hole reflexes. Obtained results indicated the suppression of fear in rats exposed to manganese. Specifically, this was estimated by the frequency of getting to the central part of the open field. Experiments revealed that 30-day exposure to 10 mg/ml manganese did not stimulate aggressive behavior in rats, while exposure to the higher dose (20 mg/ml), 37% of initially non-aggressive animals manifested aggressive behavior. Furthermore, 25% of rats were extremely aggressive. Obtained data support the hypothesis that excess manganese in the body is one of the immediate causes of enhancement of interspecific predatory aggressive and violent behavior in rats. It was also discovered that manganese intoxication produces non-reversible severe learning disability and insignificant, reversible memory disturbances. Studies of rodents exposed to arsenic also revealed changes in the learning process. As it is known, the distribution of metal ions differs in various brain regions. The principle manganese accumulation was observed in the hippocampus and in the neocortex, while arsenic was predominantly accumulated in nucleus accumbens, striatum, and cortex. These brain regions play an important role in the regulation of emotional state and motor activity. Histopathological analyzes of brain sections illustrated two morphologically distinct altered phenotypes of neurons: (1) shrunk cells with indications of apoptosis - nucleus and cytoplasm were very difficult to be distinguished, the integrity of neuronal cytoplasm was not disturbed; and (2) swollen cells - with indications of necrosis. Pyknotic nucleus, plasma membrane disruption and cytoplasmic vacuoles were observed in swollen neurons and they were surrounded by activated gliocytes. It’s worth to mention that in the cortex the majority of damaged neurons were apoptotic while in subcortical nuclei –neurons were mainly necrotic. Ultrastructural analyses demonstrated that all cell types in the cortex and the nucleus caudatus represent destructed mitochondria, widened neurons’ vacuolar system profiles, increased number of lysosomes and degeneration of axonal endings.

Keywords: arsenic, manganese, behavior, learning, neuron

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101 Use of WhatsApp Messenger for Optimal Healthcare Operational Communication during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Josiah O. Carter, Charlotte Hayden, Elizabeth Arthurs

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Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospital management policies have changed frequently and rapidly. This has created novel challenges in keeping the workforce abreast of these changes to enable them to deliver safe and effective care. Traditional communication methods, e.g. email, do not keep pace with the rapidly changing environment in the hospital, resulting in inaccurate, irrelevant, or outdated information being communicated, resulting in inefficiencies in patient care. Methods: The creation of a WhatsApp messaging group within the medical division at the Bristol Royal Infirmary has enabled senior clinicians and the hospital management team to update the medical workforce in real-time. It has two primary functions: (1) To enable dissemination of a concise, important operational summary. This comprises information on bed status and infection control procedural changes. It is fed directly from a daily critical incident briefing (2) To facilitate a monthly scheduled question and answer (Q&A) session for junior doctors to clarify issues with clinical directors, rota, and management staff. Additional ad-hoc updates are sent out for time-critical information; otherwise, it mainly functions as a broadcast-only group to prevent important information from being lost amongst other communication. All junior doctors within the medical division were invited to join the group. At present, the group comprises 131 participants, of which 10 are administrative staff (rota coordinators, management staff & clinical directors); the remaining 121 are junior clinicians working within the medical division. An electronic survey via Microsoft forms was sent out to junior doctors via the WhatsApp group and via email to assess its utilisation and effectiveness with the aim of quality improvements. Results: Of the 121 group participants, 19 completed the questionnaire (response rate 15.7%). Of these, 16/19 (84.2%) used it regularly, and 12/19 (63.2%) rated it as the most useful source for reliable updates relating to the hospital response to the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas only 2/19 (10.5%) found the trust intranet and the trust COVID-19 operational email update most useful. Respondents rated the WhatsApp group more useful as an information source (mean score 7.7/10) than as a means of providing feedback to management staff (mean score 6.3/10). Qualitative feedback suggested information around ward closures and changes to COVID cohorting, along with updates on staffing issues, were most useful. Respondents also noted the Q&A sessions were an efficient way of relaying feedback about management decisions but that it would be preferable if these sessions could be delivered more frequently. Discussion: During the current global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an increased need for rapid dissemination of critical information within NHS trusts; this includes communication between junior doctors, managers, and senior clinicians. The versatility of WhatsApp permits a variety of functions allowing for regular updates, the dissemination of time-critical information, and enables conversing and feedback. The project has demonstrated that reserved and well-managed use of a WhatsApp group is a welcome, efficient and practical means of communication between the senior management team and the junior medical workforce.

Keywords: communication, COVID-19, hospital management, WhatsApp

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100 Examining the Impact of De-Escalation Training among Emergency Department Nurses

Authors: Jonathan D. Recchi

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Introduction: Workplace violence is a major concern for nurses throughout the United States and is a rising occupational health hazard that has been exacerbated by both the Covid-19 pandemic and increasing patient and family member incivility. De-escalation training has been found to be an evidence-based tool for emergency department nurses to help avoid or mitigate high-risk situations that could lead to workplace violence. Many healthcare organizations either do not provide de-escalation training to their staff or only provide it sparingly, such as during new employee orientation. There is limited research in the literature on the psychological benefits of de-escalation training. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine if there are psychological and organizational advantages to providing emergency department nurses with de-escalation training. Equipping emergency department nurses with skills that are essential to de-escalate violent or potentially violent patients may help prevent physical, mental, and/or psychological damage to the nurse because of violence and/or threatening acts. The hypothesis is that providing de-scalation training to emergency department nurses will lead to increased nurse confidence in dealing with aggressive patients, increased resiliency, increased professional quality of life, and increased intention to stay with their current organization. This study aims to show that organizations would benefit from providing de-escalation training to all nurses operating in high-risk areas on a regular basis. Significance: Showing psychological benefits to providing evidence-based de-escalation training can provide healthcare organizations with the ability to retain a more resilient and prepared workforce. Method: This study uses a pre-experimental cross-sectional pre-/post-test design using a convenience sample of emergency department registered nurses employed across Jefferson Health Northeast (Jefferson Torresdale, Jefferson Bucks, and Jefferson Frankford. Inclusion criteria include registered nurses who work full or part-time, with 51% or more of their clinical time spent in direct clinical care. Excluded from participation are registered nurses in orientation, per-diem nurses, temporary and/or travel nurses, nurses who spend less than 51% of their time in direct patient care, and nurses who have received de-escalation training within the past two years. This study uses the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale 10 (CD-RISC-10), the Clinician Confidence in Coping with Patient Aggression Scale, the Press Ganey Intention To Stay question, and the Professional Quality of Life Scale. Results: A Paired t-Test will be used to analyze the mean scores of the three scales and one question pre and post-intervention to determine if there is a statistically significant difference in RN resiliency, confidence in coping with patient aggression, intention to stay, and professional quality of life. Discussion and Conclusions: Upon completion, the outcomes of this intervention will show the importance of providing evidence-based de-escalation training to all nurses operating within the emergency department.

Keywords: de-escalation, nursing, emergency department, workplace violence

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99 Respiratory Health and Air Movement Within Equine Indoor Arenas

Authors: Staci McGill, Morgan Hayes, Robert Coleman, Kimberly Tumlin

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The interaction and relationships between horses and humans have been shown to be positive for physical, mental, and emotional wellbeing, however equine spaces where these interactions occur do include some environmental risks. There are 1.7 million jobs associated with the equine industry in the United States in addition to recreational riders, owners, and volunteers who interact with horses for substantial amounts of time daily inside built structures. One specialized facility, an “indoor arena” is a semi-indoor structure used for exercising horses and exhibiting skills during competitive events. Typically, indoor arenas have a sand or sand mixture as the footing or surface over which the horse travels, and increasingly, silica sand is being recommended due to its durable nature. It was previously identified in a semi-qualitative survey that the majority of individuals using indoor arenas have environmental concerns with dust. 27% (90/333) of respondents reported respiratory issues or allergy-like symptoms while riding with 21.6% (71/329) of respondents reporting these issues while standing on the ground observing or teaching. Frequent headaches and/or lightheadedness was reported in 9.9% (33/333) of respondents while riding and in 4.3% 14/329 while on the ground. Horse respiratory health is also negatively impacted with 58% (194/333) of respondents indicating horses cough during or after time in the indoor arena. Instructors who spent time in indoor arenas self-reported more respiratory issues than those individuals who identified as smokers, highlighting the health relevance of understanding these unique structures. To further elucidate environmental concerns and self-reported health issues, 35 facility assessments were conducted in a cross-sectional sampling design in the states of Kentucky and Ohio (USA). Data, including air speeds, were collected in a grid fashion at 15 points within the indoor arenas and then mapped spatially using krigging in ARCGIS. From the spatial maps, standard variances were obtained and differences were analyzed using multivariant analysis of variances (MANOVA) and analysis of variances (ANOVA). There were no differences for the variance of the air speeds in the spaces for facility orientation, presence and type of roof ventilation, climate control systems, amount of openings, or use of fans. Variability of the air speeds in the indoor arenas was 0.25 or less. Further analysis yielded that average air speeds within the indoor arenas were lower than 100 ft/min (0.51 m/s) which is considered still air in other animal facilities. The lack of air movement means that dust clearance is reliant on particle size and weight rather than ventilation. While further work on respirable dust is necessary, this characterization of the semi-indoor environment where animals and humans interact indicates insufficient air flow to eliminate or reduce respiratory hazards. Finally, engineering solutions to address air movement deficiencies within indoor arenas or mitigate particulate matter are critical to ensuring exposures do not lead to adverse health outcomes for equine professionals, volunteers, participants, and horses within these spaces.

Keywords: equine, indoor arena, ventilation, particulate matter, respiratory health

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98 Early Diagnosis of Myocardial Ischemia Based on Support Vector Machine and Gaussian Mixture Model by Using Features of ECG Recordings

Authors: Merve Begum Terzi, Orhan Arikan, Adnan Abaci, Mustafa Candemir

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Acute myocardial infarction is a major cause of death in the world. Therefore, its fast and reliable diagnosis is a major clinical need. ECG is the most important diagnostic methodology which is used to make decisions about the management of the cardiovascular diseases. In patients with acute myocardial ischemia, temporary chest pains together with changes in ST segment and T wave of ECG occur shortly before the start of myocardial infarction. In this study, a technique which detects changes in ST/T sections of ECG is developed for the early diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia. For this purpose, a database of real ECG recordings that contains a set of records from 75 patients presenting symptoms of chest pain who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constituted. 12-lead ECG’s of the patients were recorded before and during the PCI procedure. Two ECG epochs, which are the pre-inflation ECG which is acquired before any catheter insertion and the occlusion ECG which is acquired during balloon inflation, are analyzed for each patient. By using pre-inflation and occlusion recordings, ECG features that are critical in the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are identified and the most discriminative features for the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are extracted. A classification technique based on support vector machine (SVM) approach operating with linear and radial basis function (RBF) kernels to detect ischemic events by using ST-T derived joint features from non-ischemic and ischemic states of the patients is developed. The dataset is randomly divided into training and testing sets and the training set is used to optimize SVM hyperparameters by using grid-search method and 10fold cross-validation. SVMs are designed specifically for each patient by tuning the kernel parameters in order to obtain the optimal classification performance results. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to real ECG recordings, it is shown that the proposed technique provides highly reliable detections of the anomalies in ECG signals. Furthermore, to develop a detection technique that can be used in the absence of ECG recording obtained during healthy stage, the detection of acute myocardial ischemia based on ECG recordings of the patients obtained during ischemia is also investigated. For this purpose, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to represent the joint pdf of the most discriminating ECG features of myocardial ischemia. Then, a Neyman-Pearson type of approach is developed to provide detection of outliers that would correspond to acute myocardial ischemia. Neyman – Pearson decision strategy is used by computing the average log likelihood values of ECG segments and comparing them with a range of different threshold values. For different discrimination threshold values and number of ECG segments, probability of detection and probability of false alarm values are computed, and the corresponding ROC curves are obtained. The results indicate that increasing number of ECG segments provide higher performance for GMM based classification. Moreover, the comparison between the performances of SVM and GMM based classification showed that SVM provides higher classification performance results over ECG recordings of considerable number of patients.

Keywords: ECG classification, Gaussian mixture model, Neyman–Pearson approach, support vector machine

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97 Deep Learning Based Text to Image Synthesis for Accurate Facial Composites in Criminal Investigations

Authors: Zhao Gao, Eran Edirisinghe

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The production of an accurate sketch of a suspect based on a verbal description obtained from a witness is an essential task for most criminal investigations. The criminal investigation system employs specifically trained professional artists to manually draw a facial image of the suspect according to the descriptions of an eyewitness for subsequent identification. Within the advancement of Deep Learning, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have shown great promise in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Additionally, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have also proven to be very effective in image generation. In this study, a trained GAN conditioned on textual features such as keywords automatically encoded from a verbal description of a human face using an RNN is used to generate photo-realistic facial images for criminal investigations. The intention of the proposed system is to map corresponding features into text generated from verbal descriptions. With this, it becomes possible to generate many reasonably accurate alternatives to which the witness can use to hopefully identify a suspect from. This reduces subjectivity in decision making both by the eyewitness and the artist while giving an opportunity for the witness to evaluate and reconsider decisions. Furthermore, the proposed approach benefits law enforcement agencies by reducing the time taken to physically draw each potential sketch, thus increasing response times and mitigating potentially malicious human intervention. With publically available 'CelebFaces Attributes Dataset' (CelebA) and additionally providing verbal description as training data, the proposed architecture is able to effectively produce facial structures from given text. Word Embeddings are learnt by applying the RNN architecture in order to perform semantic parsing, the output of which is fed into the GAN for synthesizing photo-realistic images. Rather than the grid search method, a metaheuristic search based on genetic algorithms is applied to evolve the network with the intent of achieving optimal hyperparameters in a fraction the time of a typical brute force approach. With the exception of the ‘CelebA’ training database, further novel test cases are supplied to the network for evaluation. Witness reports detailing criminals from Interpol or other law enforcement agencies are sampled on the network. Using the descriptions provided, samples are generated and compared with the ground truth images of a criminal in order to calculate the similarities. Two factors are used for performance evaluation: The Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR). A high percentile output from this performance matrix should attribute to demonstrating the accuracy, in hope of proving that the proposed approach can be an effective tool for law enforcement agencies. The proposed approach to criminal facial image generation has potential to increase the ratio of criminal cases that can be ultimately resolved using eyewitness information gathering.

Keywords: RNN, GAN, NLP, facial composition, criminal investigation

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96 Dynamics of Protest Mobilization and Rapid Demobilization in Post-2001 Afghanistan: Facing Enlightening Movement

Authors: Ali Aqa Mohammad Jawad

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Taking a relational approach, this paper analyzes the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Enlightening Movement in post-2001 Afghanistan. The movement emerged after the state-owned Da Afghan Bereshna Sherkat (DABS) decided to divert the route for the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TUTAP) electricity project. The grid was initially planned to go through the Hazara-inhabited province of Bamiyan, according to Afghanistan’s Power Sector Master Plan. The reroute served as an aide-mémoire of historical subordination to other ethno-religious groups for the Hazara community. It was also perceived as deprivation from post-2001 development projects, financed by international aid. This torched the accumulated grievances, which then gave birth to the Enlightening Movement. The movement had a successful mobilization. However, it demobilized after losing much of its mobilizing capabilities through an amalgamation of external and internal relational factors. The successful mobilization yet rapid demobilization constitutes the puzzle of this paper. From the theoretical perspective, this paper is significant as it establishes the applicability of contentious politics theory to protest mobilizations that occurred in Afghanistan, a context-specific, characterized by ethnic politics. Both primary and secondary data are utilized to address the puzzle. As for the primary resources, media coverage, interviews, reports, public media statements of the movement, involved in contentious performances, and data from Social Networking Services (SNS) are used. The covered period is from 2001-2018. As for the secondary resources, published academic articles and books are used to give a historical account of contentious politics. For data analysis, a qualitative comparative historical method is utilized to uncover the causal mechanisms associated with successful mobilization and rapid demobilization of the Movement. In this pursuit, both mobilization and demobilization are considered as larger political processes that could be decomposed to constituent mechanisms. Enlightening Movement’s framing and campaigns are first studied to uncover the associated mechanisms. Then, to avoid introducing some ad hoc mechanisms, the recurrence of mechanisms is checked against another case. Mechanisms qualify as robust if they are “recurrent” in different episodes of contention. Checking the recurrence of causal mechanisms is vital as past contentious events tend to reinforce future events. The findings of this paper suggest that the public sphere in Afghanistan is drastically different from Western democracies known as the birthplace of social movements. In Western democracies, when institutional politics did not respond, movement organizers occupied the public sphere, undermining the legitimacy of the government. In Afghanistan, the public sphere is ethicized. Considering the inter- and intra-relational dynamics of ethnic groups in Afghanistan, the movement reduced to an erosive inter- and intra-ethnic conflict. This undermined the cohesiveness of the movement, which then kicked-off its demobilization process.

Keywords: enlightening movement, contentious politics, mobilization, demobilization

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