Search results for: humanitarian distribution planning

Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Prayas Sharma

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This paper proposed a generalized class of estimators, an exponential class of estimators based on the adaption of Sharma and Singh (2015) and Solanki and Singh (2013), and a simple difference estimator for estimating unknown population mean in the case of Poisson distributed population in simple random sampling without replacement. The expressions for mean square errors of the proposed classes of estimators are derived from the first order of approximation. It is shown that the adapted version of Solanki and Singh (2013), the exponential class of estimator, is always more efficient than the usual estimator, ratio, product, exponential ratio, and exponential product type estimators and equally efficient to simple difference estimator. Moreover, the adapted version of Sharma and Singh's (2015) estimator is always more efficient than all the estimators available in the literature. In addition, theoretical findings are supported by an empirical study to show the superiority of the constructed estimators over others with an application to earthquake data of Turkey.

Keywords: auxiliary attribute, point bi-serial, mean square error, simple random sampling, Poisson distribution

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Authors: Panpan Feng

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The concept of green infrastructure originated in Europe and the United States. It aims to ensure smart growth of urban and rural ecosystems and achieve sustainable urban and rural ecological, social, and economic development by combining it with gray infrastructure in traditional planning. Based on the literature review of the theoretical origin, value connotation, and measurement methods of green infrastructure, this study summarizes the research content of green infrastructure at different scales from the three spatial levels of region, city, and block and divides it into functional dimensions, spatial dimension, and strategic dimension. The results show that in the functional dimension, from region-city-block, the research on green infrastructure gradually shifts from ecological function to social function. In the spatial dimension, from region-city-block, the research on the spatial form of green infrastructure has shifted from two-dimensional to three-dimensional, and the spatial structure of green infrastructure has shifted from single ecological elements to multiple composite elements. From a strategic perspective, green infrastructure research is more of a spatial planning tool based on land management, environmental livability and ecological psychology, providing certain decision-making support.

Keywords: green infrastructure, multi-scale, social and ecological functions, spatial strategic decision-making tools

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Authors: Hanyu Wei

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The last two decades have witnessed a significant number of regeneration practices in historical Chinese cities with the context of rapid urbanisation and economic development. As a response to the possible loss of place identity in the redevelopment process, city makers recognise the potentials of places with cultural significance for maintaining the original landscape. In Chongqing, the prosperities of human settlement history together with the anti-war and post-industrial culture bring this riverside city with its unique urban landscape. Great amounts of historical sites are identified and subjected to conservation planning approaches for urban revitalisation while also maintaining the historic urban landscape. This paper reviews three practices of cultural-led regeneration projects (Hongyadong, Ciqikou, Danzishi) in Chongqing, detailing the urban design and planning principals for the case sites. The paper also presents the conflicting opinions from groups with different interests. By carrying a systematical sustainability evaluation assessment on those projects, the paper critically analyzes the influence of these projects on the broad socio-economic aspects. Although these regeneration cases are thought to achieve the general success in abstaining economic benefits, they are criticised for the over-tourism issues and damages on the authenticity, which further fails to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: Chongqing, historic urban landscape, sustainable development, urban regeneration

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Authors: Young-Ok Yoon, Su-Yeon Lee, Seong-Ho Ha, Gil-Yong Yeom, Bong-Hwan Kim, Hyun-Kyu Lim, Shae K. Kim

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Al-7Si-0.4Mg alloy (designated A356) is widely used in the automotive and aerospace industries as structural components due to an excellent combination of castability and mechanical properties. Grain refinement has a significant effect on the mechanical properties of castings, mainly since the distribution of secondary phase is changed. As a grain refiner, the Al-Ti-B master alloys containing TiAl3 and TiB2 particles have been widely used in Al foundries. The Mg loss and Mg based inclusion formation by the strong affinity of Mg to oxygen in the melting process of Mg contained alloys have been an issue. This can be significantly improved only by Mg+Al2Ca master alloy as an alloying element instead of pure Mg. Moreover, the eutectic Si modification and grain refinement is simultaneously obtained because Al2Ca behaves as Ca, a typical Si modifier. The present study is focused on the combined effects of Mg+Al2Ca and Al-Ti-B master alloys on the grain refiment of Al-7Si-0.4Mg alloy and their proper ratio for the optimum effect. The aim of this study, therefore, is to investigate the change of the microstructure in Al-7Si-0.4Mg alloy with different ratios of Ti and Al2Ca (detected Ca content) and their effects on the tensile property. The distribution and morphology of the secondary phases by the grain refinement will be discussed.

Keywords: Al-7Si-0.4Mg alloy, Al2Ca, Al-Ti-B alloy, grain refinement

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Authors: Scott R. Butler

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Ontario, Canada’s largest province, is in the midst of an interesting experiment in mandated asset management planning for local governments. At the beginning of 2021, Ontario’s 444 municipalities were responsible for the management of 302,864 lane kilometers of roads that have a replacement cost of $97.545 billion CDN. Roadways are by far the most complex, expensive, and extensive assets that a municipality is responsible for overseeing. Since adopting Ontario Regulation 588/47: Asset Management Planning for Municipal Infrastructure in 2017, the provincial government has established prescriptions for local road authorities regarding asset category and levels of service being provided. This provincial regulation further stipulates that asset data such as extent, condition, and life cycle costing are to be captured in manner compliant with qualitative descriptions and technical metrics. The Ontario Good Roads Association undertook an exercise to aggregate the road-related data contained within the 444 asset management plans that municipalities have filed with the provincial government. This analysis concluded that collectively Ontario municipal roadways have a $34.7 billion CDN in deferred maintenance. The ill-state of repair of Ontario municipal roads has lasting implications for province’s economic competitiveness and has garnered considerable political attention. Municipal efforts to address the maintenance backlog are stymied by the extremely limited fiscal parameters municipalities must operate within in Ontario. Further exacerbating the program are provincially designed programs that are ineffective, administratively burdensome, and not necessarily aligned with local priorities or strategies. This paper addresses how municipal asset management plans – and more specifically, the data contained in these plans – can be used to design innovative policy frameworks, flexible funding programs, and new levels of service that respond to these funding challenges, as well as emerging issues such as local economic development and climate change. To fully unlock the potential that Ontario Regulation 588/17 has imposed will require a resolute commitment to data standardization and horizontal collaboration between municipalities within regions.

Keywords: transportation, municipal asset management, subnational policy design, subnational funding program design

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Authors: Farrin Nayebzadeh, Mohammadreza Eslami Amirabadi

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According to technological progress and urban development, the cities of the world are growing to become metropolitans, living in which can be enthusiastic, entertaining and accessibility to the facilities like education, economic factors, hygiene and welfare is high. On the other hand, there are some problems that have been ignored in planning for such high quality of life, most important of which, is human health. Two aspects of human health are physical health and mental health, that are closely associated. Human mental health depends on two important factors: Biological factor and environmental factor. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental risk factors that affects mental health. Psychological and toxic effects of air pollution can lead to psychiatric symptoms, including anxiety and changes in mood, cognition, and behavior, depression and also children's mental disorders like hyperactivity, aggression and agitation. Increased levels of some air pollutants are accompanied by an increase in psychiatric admissions and emergency calls and, in some studies, by changes in behavior and a reduction in psychological well-being. Numerous toxic pollutants interfere with the development and adult functioning of the nervous system. Psychosocial stress can cause symptoms similar to those of organic mental disorders. These factors can cause resonance of psychiatric disorders. So, in cities of developing countries, people challenge with mental health problems due to environmental factors especially air pollution that have not been forecasted in urban planning.

Keywords: air pollution, environmental factors, mental health, psychiatric disorder

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Authors: Fatemeh Yazdandoust, Derrick Mirrindi

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The excessive use of non-renewable fossil fuels has led to a pressing energy crisis that demands urgent attention. While renewable sources like solar, wind, and water have gained significant attention as alternatives, we must explore additional avenues. This study takes an interdisciplinary approach, investigating the potential of waste streams from energy production and other untapped natural sources as sustainable energy solutions. Through a review of case studies, this study demonstrates how these alternative sources, including human power, animal body heat, and noise, can seamlessly integrate into architecture and urban planning. This article first discusses passive design strategies integrating alternative energy sources into vernacular architecture. Then, it reviews the waste stream (exergy) and potential energy sources, such as human power, animal body heat, and noise, in contemporary proposals and case studies. It demonstrates how an alternative energy design strategy may easily incorporate these many sources into our architecture and urban planning through passive and active design strategies to increase the energy efficiency of our built environment.

Keywords: alternative energy sources, energy exchange, human and animal power, potential energy sources, waste stream

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Authors: Ater Amogpai

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Hydropower and solar photovoltaic (PV) generation are crucial in sustainability and transitioning from fossil fuel to clean energy. Integrating renewable energy sources such as hydropower and solar photovoltaic (PV) into the distributed networks contributes to achieving energy balance, pollution mitigation, and cost reduction. Frequent power outages and a lack of load reliability characterize the current South Sudan electricity distribution system. The country’s electricity demand is 300MW; however, the installed capacity is around 212.4M. Insufficient funds to build new electricity facilities and expand generation are the reasons for the gap in installed capacity. The South Sudan Ministry of Energy and Dams gave a contract to an Egyptian Elsewedy Electric Company that completed the construction of a solar PV plant in 2023. The plant has a 35 MWh battery storage and 20 MW solar PV system capacity. The construction of Juba Solar PV Park started in 2022 to increase the current installed capacity in Juba City to 53 MW. The plant will begin serving 59000 residents in Juba and save 10,886.2t of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually.

Keywords: renewable energy, hydropower, solar energy, photovoltaic, South Sudan

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Authors: Anthony Chidi Ezika, Gbolahan Joseph Adekoya, Emmanuel Rotimi Sadiku, Yskandar Hamam, Suprakas Sinha Ray

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High-energy-density polymer/ceramic composites require a high breakdown strength and dielectric constant. Interface polarization and electric percolation are responsible for the high dielectric constant. In order to create composite dielectrics, high conductivity ceramic particles are combined with polymers to increase the dielectric constant. In this study, bonding and the non-uniform distribution of charges in the ceramic/ceramic interface zone are investigated using density functional theory (DFT) modeling. This non-uniform distribution of charges is intended to improve the ceramic/ceramic interface's dipole polarization (dielectric response). The interfacial chemical bond formation can also improve the structural stability of the hybrid filler and, consequently, of the composite films. To comprehend the electron-transfer process, the density of state and electron localization function of the PPy with hybrid fillers are also studied. The polymer nanocomposite is anticipated to provide a suitable dielectric response for energy storage applications.

Keywords: energy storage, V₂C/ ZnS hybrid, polypyrrole, MXene, nanocomposite, dielectric

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Authors: Flóra Pomázi, Sándor Baranya, Zoltán Szalai

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A harmonized monitoring of the suspended sediment transport along such a large river as the world’s most international river, the Danube River, is a rather challenging task. The traditional monitoring method in Hungary is obsolete but using indirect measurement devices and techniques like optical backscatter sensors (OBS), laser diffraction or acoustic backscatter sensors (ABS) could provide a fast and efficient alternative option of direct methods. However, these methods are strongly sensitive to the particle characteristics (i.e. particle shape, particle size and mineral composition). The current method does not provide sufficient information about particle size distribution, mineral analysis is rarely done, and the shape of the suspended sediment particles have not been examined yet. The aims of the study are (1) to determine the particle characterisation of suspended sediment in the Danube River using advanced particle characterisation methods as laser diffraction and automated imaging, and (2) to perform a sensitivity analysis of the indirect methods in order to determine the impact of suspended particle characteristics. The particle size distribution is determined by laser diffraction. The particle shape and mineral composition analysis is done by the Morphologi G3ID image analyser. The investigated indirect measurement devices are the LISST-Portable|XR, the LISST-ABS (Sequoia Inc.) and the Rio Grande 1200 kHz ADCP (Teledyne Marine). The major findings of this study are (1) the statistical shape of the suspended sediment particle - this is the first research in this context, (2) the actualised particle size distribution – that can be compared to historical information, so that the morphological changes can be tracked, (3) the actual mineral composition of the suspended sediment in the Danube River, and (4) the reliability of the tested indirect methods has been increased – based on the results of the sensitivity analysis and the previous findings.

Keywords: advanced particle characterisation, automated imaging, indirect methods, laser diffraction, mineral composition, suspended sediment

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Authors: Md. Shakhawat Ullah Chowdhury

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Mobile school is an innovative methodology in non-formal education to increase access to education for children during conflict through theatre for education for appropriate basic education to children during conflict. The continuous exposure to harsh environments and the nature of the lifestyles of children in conflict make them vulnerable. However, the mobile school initiative takes into consideration the mobile lifestyle of children in conflict. Schools are provided considering the pocket area of the street children with portable chalkboards, tin of books and materials as communities move. Teaching is multi-grade to ensure all children in the community benefit. The established mobile schools, while focused on basic literacy and numeracy skills according to traditions of the communities. The school teachers are selected by the community and trained by a theatre activist. These teachers continue to live and move with the community and provide continuous education for children in conflict. The model proposed a holistic team work to deliver education focused services to the street children’s pocket area where the team is mobile. The team consists of three members –an educator (theatre worker), a psychological counsellor and paramedics. The mobile team is responsible to educate street children and also play dramas which specially produce on the basis of national curriculum and awareness issues for street children. Children enjoy play and learn about life skills and basic literacy and numeracy skills which may be a pillar of humanitarian aid during conflict.

Keywords: vulnerable, children in conflict, mobile schooling, child-friendly

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Authors: Gabriel K. Nzulu, Hans Högberg, Per Eklund, Lars Hultman, Martin Magnuson

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X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) are applied to investigate the properties of rock samples from a drill hole from the Kubi Gold Project of the Asante Gold Corporation near Dunwka-on-Offin in the Central Region of Ghana. The distribution of these minerals in the rocks were observed in the drill hole sections. X-ray diffraction indicates that the samples contain garnet, pyrite, periclase, and quartz as the main indicator minerals. SEM revealed morphologies of these minerals. From EDX and XPS, Fe, Mg, Al, S, O, Hg, Ti, Mn, Na, Ag, Au, Cu, Si, and K are identified as the pathfinder elements in the area that either form alloys with gold or inherent elements in the sediments. This finding can be ascribed to primary geochemical distribution, which developed from crystallization of magma and hydrothermal liquids as well as the movement of metasomatic elements and the precipitous rate of chemical weathering of lateralization in secondary processes. The results indicate that Au mineralization in the Kubi Mine area is controlled by garnet, pyrite, goethite, and kaolinite that grades up to the surface (oxides) with hematite and limonite alterations.

Keywords: gold, minerals, pathfinder element, spectroscopy, X-ray

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Authors: Chow Jeng Hei, Pavel Tkalich, Low Kai Sheng Bryan

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Due to the growing demand for sustainability in the maritime industry, there has been a significant increase in focus on alternative fuels such as biofuels, liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen, methanol and ammonia to reduce the carbon footprint of vessels. Alternative fuels offer efficient transportability and significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a critical factor in combating global warming. In an era where the world is determined to tackle climate change, the utilization of methanol is projected to witness a consistent rise in demand, even during downturns in the oil and gas industry. Since 2022, there has been an increase in methanol loading and discharging operations for industrial use in Singapore. These operations were conducted across various storage tank terminals at Jurong Island of varying capacities, which are also used to store alternative fuels for bunkering requirements. The key objective of this research is to support the green shipping industries in the transformation to new fuels such as methanol and ammonia, especially in evolving the capability to inform risk assessment and management of spills. In the unlikely event of accidental spills, a highly reliable forecasting system must be in place to provide mitigation measures and ahead planning. The outcomes of this research would lead to an enhanced metocean prediction capability and, together with advanced sensing, will continuously build up a robust digital twin of the bunkering operating environment. Outputs from the developments will contribute to management strategies for alternative marine fuel spills, including best practices, safety challenges and crisis management. The outputs can also benefit key port operators and the various bunkering, petrochemicals, shipping, protection and indemnity, and emergency response sectors. The forecasted datasets provide a forecast of the expected atmosphere and hydrodynamic conditions prior to bunkering exercises, enabling a better understanding of the metocean conditions ahead and allowing for more refined spill incident management planning

Keywords: clean fuels, hydrodynamics, coastal engineering, impact assessments

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Authors: P. Priya Madhuri, J. Kamini, S. C. Jayanthi

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Assessment of land use and transportation networks is essential for sustainable urban growth, urban planning, efficient public transportation systems, and reducing traffic congestion. The study focuses on land use, population density, and their correlation with the road network for future development. The scope of the study covers inventory and assessment of the road network dataset (line) at the city, zonal, or ward level, which is extracted from very high-resolution satellite data (spatial resolution < 0.5 m) at 1:4000 map scale and ground truth verification. Road network assessment is carried out by computing various indices that measure road coverage and connectivity. In this study, an assessment of the road network is carried out for the study region at the municipal and ward levels. In order to identify gaps, road coverage and connectivity were associated with urban land use, built-up area, and population density in the study area. Ward-wise road connectivity and coverage maps have been prepared. To assess the relationship between road network metrics, correlation analysis is applied. The study's conclusions are extremely beneficial for effective road network planning and detecting gaps in the road network at the ward level in association with urban land use, existing built-up, and population.

Keywords: road connectivity, road coverage, road network, urban land use, transportation analysis

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Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad

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In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data centre

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Authors: David Ross Cameron

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In an attempt to alleviate the educational planning problem, double-shift schools have been created throughout various regions in Jordan, namely communities closer to the Syrian border, where a large portion of the refugee population settled, allowing Jordanians to attend the morning-shift and Syrians to attend the afternoon-shift. Subsequently, overcrowded classrooms have added a significant amount of stress on school facilities and teacher capacities. Established national policies and the implementation of inclusive educational practices have been jeopardized. In particular, teachers’ and student’s attitudes of the importance of inclusive education provisions in the classroom have deteriorated. To have a more comprehensive understanding of the current situation and possible plan for intervention, a focus study was carried out at a double-shift Jordanian/Syrian girls’ public school in Irbid, Jordan. Interviews and surveys of 29 students with physical, learning, emotional and behavioral disabilities, 33 students without any special needs and nine teachers were included with a mixed-method social research approach to highlight the current attitudes that students and teachers held and factors that contributed to shaping their inclinations and beliefs of inclusive education.

Keywords: capacity building, development, double-shift, Irbid, inclusive education, Jordan, pedagogy, planning, policy, refugee, special education, special needs, vulnerable population

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Authors: Shreya Pare, Parvin Akhter

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Remotely sensing image classification becomes a very challenging task owing to the high dimensionality of hyperspectral images. The pixel-wise classification methods fail to take the spatial structure information of an image. Therefore, to improve the performance of classification, spatial information can be integrated into the classification process. In this paper, the multilevel thresholding algorithm based on a modified fuzzy entropy function is used to perform the segmentation of hyperspectral images. The fuzzy parameters of the MFE function have been optimized by using a new meta-heuristic algorithm based on the Tree-Search algorithm. The segmented image is classified by a large distribution machine (LDM) classifier. Experimental results are shown on a hyperspectral image dataset. The experimental outputs indicate that the proposed technique (MFE-TSA-LDM) achieves much higher classification accuracy for hyperspectral images when compared to state-of-art classification techniques. The proposed algorithm provides accurate segmentation and classification maps, thus becoming more suitable for image classification with large spatial structures.

Keywords: classification, hyperspectral images, large distribution margin, modified fuzzy entropy function, multilevel thresholding, tree search algorithm, hyperspectral image classification using tree search algorithm

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Authors: Qin Zhu

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Under the development concept of Park City, Tianfu Greenway system, as the basic and pre-configuration element of Chengdu Global Park construction, connects urban open space with linear and circular structures and undertakes and exerts the ecological, cultural and recreational functions of the park system. Chengdu greenway construction is in full swing. In the process of greenway planning and construction, the landscape effect of greenway on urban quality improvement is more valued, and the long-term impact of crowd experience on the sustainable development of greenway is often ignored. Therefore, it is very important to test the effectiveness of greenway construction from the perspective of users. Taking Jincheng Greenway in Chengdu as an example, this paper attempts to introduce multi-source data to construct a post-occupancy evaluation model of greenway and adopts behavior mapping method, questionnaire survey method, web text analysis and IPA analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the user 's behavior characteristics and satisfaction. According to the evaluation results, we can grasp the actual behavior rules and comprehensive needs of users so that the experience of building greenways can be fed back in time and provide guidance for the optimization and improvement of built greenways and the planning and construction of future greenways.

Keywords: multi-source data, greenway, IPA analysis, post -occupancy evaluation (POE)

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Authors: Yi Yu, Vu Xuan Nguyen, Gaoxi Xiao

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Opinion formation in complex social networks may exhibit complex system dynamics even when based on some simplest system evolution models. An interesting and important issue is the effects of the initial state on the final steady-state opinion distribution. By carrying out extensive simulations and providing necessary discussions, we show that, while different initial opinion distributions certainly make differences to opinion evolution in social systems without noises, in systems with noises, given enough time, different initial states basically do not contribute to making any significant differences in the final steady state. Instead, it is the basal distribution of the preferred opinions that contributes to deciding the final state of the systems. We briefly explain the reasons leading to the observed conclusions. Such an observation contradicts with a long-term belief on the roles of system initial state in opinion formation, demonstrating the dominating role that opinion mutation can play in opinion formation given enough time. The observation may help to better understand certain observations of opinion evolution dynamics in real-life social networks.

Keywords: opinion formation, Deffuant model, opinion mutation, consensus making

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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Authors: Misook Ahn

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This study examined the Digital Curriculum Repository (DCR) project initiated at Defense Language Institute Foreign Language Center (DLIFLC). The purpose of the DCR is to build a centralized curriculum infrastructure, preserve all curriculum materials, and provide academic service to users (faculty, students, or other agencies). The DCR collection includes core language curriculum materials developed by each language school—foreign language textbooks, language survival kits, and audio files currently in or not in use at the schools. All core curriculum materials with audio and video files have been coded, collected, and preserved at the DCR. The DCR website was designed with MS SharePoint for easy accessibility by the DLIFLC’s faculty and students. All metadata for the collected curriculum materials have been input by language, code, year, book type, level, user, version, and current status (in use/not in use). The study documents digital curriculum preservation planning, actions, and challenges, including collecting, coding, collaborating, designing DCR SharePoint, and policymaking. DCR Survey data is also collected and analyzed for this research. Based on the finding, the study concludes that the mandatory policy for the DCR system and collaboration with school leadership are critical elements of a successful repository system. The sample collected items, metadata, and DCR SharePoint site are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: MS share point, digital preservation, repository, policy

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Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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Authors: Pattaka Sa-Ngimnet

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That the University as we have known it is no longer serving the needs of the vast majority of students and potential students has been a topic of much discussion. Institutions of higher education, in this age of global culture, are in a process of metamorphosis. Technology is being used to allow more students, older students, working students and disabled students, who cannot attend conventional classes, to have greater access to higher education through the internet. But change must come about only after much evaluation and experimentation or education will simply become a commodity as, in some cases, it already has. This paper will be concerned with the meaning and methods of change and evaluation as they are applied to institutions of higher education. Organization’s generally have different goals and different approaches in order to be successful. However, the means of reaching those goals requires rational and effective planning. Any plans for successful change in any institution must take into account both effectiveness and efficiency and the differences between them. “Effectiveness” refers to an adequate means of achieving an objective. “Efficiency” refers to the ability to achieve an objective without waste of time or resources (The Free Dictionary). So an effective means may not be efficient and an efficient means may not be effective. The goal is to reach a synthesis of effectiveness and efficiency that will maximize both to the extent each is limited by the other. This focus of this paper then is to determine how an educational institution can become either successful or oppressive depending on the kinds of planning, evaluating and changes that operate by and on the administration. If the plan is concerned only with efficiency, the institution can easily become oppressive and lose sight of its purpose of educating students. If it is overly concentrated on effectiveness, the students may receive a superior education in the short run but the institution will face operating difficulties. In becoming only goal oriented, institutions also face problems. Simply stated, if the institution reaches its goals, the stake holders may become satisfied and fail to change and keep up with the needs of the times. So goals should be seen only as benchmarks in a process of becoming even better in providing quality education. Constant and consistent evaluation is the key to making all these factors come together in a successful process of planning, testing and changing the plans as needed. The focus of the evaluation has to be considered. Evaluations must take into account progress and needs of students, methods and skills of instructors, resources available from the institution and the styles and objectives of administrators. Thus the role of evaluation is pivotal in providing for the maximum of both effective and efficient change in higher education institutions.

Keywords: change, effectiveness, efficiency, education

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Avijit Datta

Abstract:

We have presented a phase control scheme in population transfer using chirped laser fields. A chirped pulse can do population transfer from one level to another level via adiabatic rapid passage accessible by one photon dipole transition. We propose to use a pair of phase-locked chirped pulses of the same frequency w(t) instead of a singly chirped-pulse frequency w(t). Simultaneous action of phase controlled interference in addition to rapid adiabatic passages due to chirped pulses lead to phase control over this population transfer dynamics. We have demonstrated the proposed phase control scheme over the population distribution from the initial level X(v=0,j=0) to C(v=2,j=1) level of hydrogen molecule using a pair of phase-locked and similarly chirped laser pulses. We have extended this two-level system to three-level 1+1 ladder system of hydrogen molecule from X level to final J(v=2,j=2) level via C intermediate level using two pairs of laser pulses having frequencies w(t) and w'(t) respectively and obtained laudable control over the population distribution among three levels. We also have presented some results of interference effects of w₁(t) and its third harmonics w₃(t).

Keywords: phase control, population transfer, chirped laser pulses, rapid adiabatic passage, laser-molecule interaction

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Authors: Karla E. Sanchez-Cazares, Kim H. Parker, Jennifer H. Tweedy

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The purpose of this work is to develop a simple compartmental model of cerebral fluid balance including blood and cerebrospinal-fluid (CSF). At the first level the cerebral arteries and veins are modelled as bifurcating trees with constant scaling factors between generations which are connected through a homogeneous microcirculation. The arteries and veins are assumed to be non-rigid and the cross-sectional area, resistance and mean pressure in each generation are determined as a function of blood volume flow rate. From the mean pressure and further assumptions about the variation of wall permeability, the transmural fluid flux can be calculated. The results suggest the next level of modelling where the cerebral vasculature is divided into three compartments; the large arteries, the small arteries, the capillaries and the veins with effective compliances and permeabilities derived from the detailed vascular model. These vascular compartments are then linked to other compartments describing the different CSF spaces, the cerebral ventricles and the subarachnoid space. This compartmental model is used to calculate the distribution of fluid in the cranium. Known volumes and flows for normal conditions are used to determine reasonable parameters for the model, which can then be used to help understand pathological behaviour and suggest clinical interventions.

Keywords: cerebrovascular, compartmental model, CSF model, vascular network

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: J. Skibinski, P. Caban, T. Wejrzanowski, K. J. Kurzydlowski

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In the present study numerical simulations of epitaxial growth of gallium nitride in Metal Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy reactor AIX-200/4RF-S are addressed. The aim of this study was to design the optimal fluid flow and thermal conditions for obtaining the most homogeneous product. Since there are many agents influencing reactions on the crystal growth area such as temperature, pressure, gas flow or reactor geometry, it is difficult to design optimal process. Variations of process pressure and hydrogen mass flow rates have been considered. According to the fact that it’s impossible to determine experimentally the exact distribution of heat and mass transfer inside the reactor during crystal growth, detailed 3D modeling has been used to get an insight of the process conditions. Numerical simulations allow to understand the epitaxial process by calculation of heat and mass transfer distribution during growth of gallium nitride. Including chemical reactions in the numerical model allows to calculate the growth rate of the substrate. The present approach has been applied to enhance the performance of AIX-200/4RF-S reactor.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, finite volume method, epitaxial growth, gallium nitride

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Sankaran Rajendran

Abstract:

Remote sensing plays a vital role in mapping of resources and monitoring of environments of the earth. In the present research study, mapping and monitoring of clay siltations occurred in the Alkhod Dam of Muscat, Sultanate of Oman are carried out using low-cost multispectral Landsat and ASTER data. The dam is constructed across the Wadi Samail catchment for ground water recharge. The occurrence and spatial distribution of siltations in the dam are studied with five years of interval from the year 1987 of construction to 2014. The deposits are mainly due to the clay, sand, and silt occurrences derived from the weathering rocks of ophiolite sequences occurred in the Wadi Samail catchment. The occurrences of clays are confirmed by minerals identification using ASTER VNIR-SWIR spectral bands and Spectral Angle Mapper supervised image processing method. The presence of clays and their spatial distribution are verified in the field. The study recommends the technique and the low-cost satellite data to similar region of the world.

Keywords: Alkhod Dam, ASTER siltation, Landsat, remote sensing, Oman

Procedia PDF Downloads 421