Search results for: Computational Fluid Dynamics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5766

Search results for: Computational Fluid Dynamics

3846 Hybrid Equity Warrants Pricing Formulation under Stochastic Dynamics

Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

Abstract:

A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
3845 Amniotic Fluid Stem Cells Ameliorate Cisplatin-Induced Acute Renal Failure through Autophagy Induction and Inhibition of Apoptosis

Authors: Soniya Nityanand, Ekta Minocha, Manali Jain, Rohit Anthony Sinha, Chandra Prakash Chaturvedi

Abstract:

Amniotic fluid stem cells (AFSC) have been shown to contribute towards the amelioration of Acute Renal Failure (ARF), but the mechanisms underlying the renoprotective effect are largely unknown. Therefore, the main goal of the current study was to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of AFSC in a cisplatin-induced rat model of ARF and to investigate the underlying mechanisms responsible for its renoprotective effect. To study the therapeutic efficacy of AFSC, ARF was induced in Wistar rats by an intra-peritoneal injection of cisplatin, and five days after administration, the rats were randomized into two groups and injected with either AFSC or normal saline intravenously. On day 8 and 12 after cisplatin injection, i.e., day 3 and day7 post-therapy respectively, the blood biochemical parameters, histopathological changes, apoptosis and expression of pro-apoptotic, anti-apoptotic and autophagy-related proteins in renal tissues were studied in both groups of rats. Administration of AFSC in ARF rats resulted in improvement of renal function and attenuation of renal damage as reflected by significant decrease in blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine levels, tubular cell apoptosis as assessed by Bax/Bcl2 ratio, and expression of the pro-apoptotic proteins viz. PUMA, Bax, cleaved caspase-3 and cleaved caspase-9 as compared to saline-treated group. Furthermore, in the AFSC-treated group as compared to saline-treated group, there was a significant increase in the activation of autophagy as evident by increased expression of LC3-II, ATG5, ATG7, Beclin1 and phospho-AMPK levels with a concomitant decrease in phospho-p70S6K and p62 expression levels. To further confirm whether the protective effects of AFSC on cisplatin-induced apoptosis were dependent on autophagy, chloroquine, an autophagy inhibitor was administered by the intra-peritoneal route. Chloroquine administration led to significant reduction in the anti-apoptotic effects of the AFSC therapy and further deterioration in the renal structure and function caused by cisplatin. Collectively, our results put forth that AFSC ameliorates cisplatin-induced ARF through induction of autophagy and inhibition of apoptosis. Furthermore, the protective effects of AFSC were blunted by chloroquine, highlighting that activation of autophagy is an important mechanism of action for the protective role of AFSC in cisplatin-induced renal injury.

Keywords: amniotic fluid stem cells, acute renal failure, autophagy, cisplatin

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
3844 Effect of Damper Combinations in Series or Parallel on Structural Response

Authors: Ajay Kumar Sinha, Sharad Singh, Anukriti Sinha

Abstract:

Passive energy dissipation method for earthquake protection of structures is undergoing developments for improved performance. Combined use of different types of damping mechanisms has shown positive results in the near past. Different supplemental damping methods like viscous damping, frictional damping and metallic damping are being combined together for optimum performance. The conventional method of connecting passive dampers to structures is a parallel connection between the damper unit and structural member. Researchers are investigating coupling effect of different types of dampers. The most popular choice among the research community is coupling of viscous dampers and frictional dampers. The series and parallel coupling of these damping units are being studied for relative performance of the coupled system on response control of structures against earthquake. In this paper an attempt has been made to couple Fluid Viscous Dampers and Frictional Dampers in series and parallel to form a single unit of damping system. The relative performance of the coupled units has been studied on three dimensional reinforced concrete framed structure. The current theories of structural dynamics in practice for viscous damping and frictional damping have been incorporated in this study. The time history analysis of the structural system with coupled damper units, uncoupled damper units as well as of structural system without any supplemental damping has been performed in this study. The investigations reported in this study show significant improved performance of coupled system. A higher natural frequency of the system outside the forcing frequency has been obtained for structural systems with coupled damper units as against the other cases. The structural response of the structure in terms of storey displacement and storey drift show significant improvement for the case with coupled damper units as against the cases with uncoupled units or without any supplemental damping. The results are promising in terms of improved response of the structure with coupled damper units. Further investigations in this regard for a comparative performance of the series and parallel coupled systems will be carried out to study the optimum behavior of these coupled systems for enhanced response control of structural systems.

Keywords: frictional damping, parallel coupling, response control, series coupling, supplemental damping, viscous damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 460
3843 A Deep Learning Based Method for Faster 3D Structural Topology Optimization

Authors: Arya Prakash Padhi, Anupam Chakrabarti, Rajib Chowdhury

Abstract:

Topology or layout optimization often gives better performing economic structures and is very helpful in the conceptual design phase. But traditionally it is being done in finite element-based optimization schemes which, although gives a good result, is very time-consuming especially in 3D structures. Among other alternatives machine learning, especially deep learning-based methods, have a very good potential in resolving this computational issue. Here convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) based variational auto encoder (VAE) is trained using a dataset generated from commercially available topology optimization code ABAQUS Tosca using solid isotropic material with penalization (SIMP) method for compliance minimization. The encoded data in latent space is then fed to a 3D generative adversarial network (3D-GAN) to generate the outcome in 64x64x64 size. Here the network consists of 3D volumetric CNN with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation in between and sigmoid activation in the end. The proposed network is seen to provide almost optimal results with significantly reduced computational time, as there is no iteration involved.

Keywords: 3D generative adversarial network, deep learning, structural topology optimization, variational auto encoder

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
3842 Investigating the Relationship between Iranian EFL Teachers' Motivation, Creativity and Job Stress

Authors: Mehrab Karimian

Abstract:

This study investigates the intricate relationships among Iranian EFL teachers’ motivation, creativity, and job stress in Shiraz and Fasa institutes. The primary aim is to explore these links using quantitative methods, providing a comprehensive understanding of how these factors interact within the educational context. The research employed convenient sampling, gathering data from 101 EFL teachers through three specific questionnaires: the Motivation to Teach Questionnaire, Teacher Creativity Questionnaire, and Job Stress Questionnaire. The methodology involved rigorous statistical analyses, including Pearson correlation and multiple regression, to interpret the collected data. The findings revealed positive relationships between motivation and creativity, as well as between motivation and job stress. However, no significant link was observed between creativity and job stress. Notably, creativity emerged as a strong predictor of motivation, highlighting its crucial role in the motivational dynamics of EFL teachers. The theoretical importance of this study lies in its contribution to understanding how motivation can influence both creativity and job stress among EFL teachers. By emphasizing the complex interplay of these factors, the study provides valuable insights that can inform future research and educational practices. The data collection process was thorough, utilizing well-established questionnaires to ensure the reliability and validity of the findings. Statistical analyses such as Pearson correlation and multiple regression were employed to interpret the relationships between motivation, creativity, and job stress. These analyses provided a detailed understanding of how these variables interact, offering a nuanced view of the motivational and stress dynamics in the teaching profession. The study addressed key questions regarding the influence of motivation on creativity and job stress, underscoring the predictive power of creativity on motivation. The conclusion drawn from the study suggests that motivated EFL teachers may experience higher levels of job stress. This finding highlights the need for targeted interventions to support teacher well-being and maintain their motivation. Such interventions could include professional development programs, stress management workshops, and creative teaching strategies to help teachers manage stress while fostering their motivation and creativity. Reviewers have commended the study for its contribution to the field, particularly in revealing the intricate dynamics between motivation, creativity, and job stress in EFL teachers. They recommend enhancing the methodology by considering potential confounding variables and incorporating qualitative approaches to complement the quantitative findings. These suggestions aim to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing EFL teachers’ motivation, creativity, and job stress.

Keywords: creativity, Job stress, gender, years of teaching experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
3841 Supervisory Controller with Three-State Energy Saving Mode for Induction Motor in Fluid Transportation

Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. O. S. Ebrahim, P. K. Jain

Abstract:

Induction Motor (IM) driving pump is the main consumer of electricity in a typical fluid transportation system (FTS). It was illustrated that changing the connection of the stator windings from delta to star at no load could achieve noticeable active and reactive energy savings. This paper proposes a supervisory hysteresis liquid-level control with three-state energy saving mode (ESM) for IM in FTS including storage tank. The IM pump drive comprises modified star/delta switch and hydromantic coupler. Three-state ESM is defined, along with the normal running, and named analog to computer ESMs as follows: Sleeping mode in which the motor runs at no load with delta stator connection, hibernate mode in which the motor runs at no load with a star connection, and motor shutdown is the third energy saver mode. A logic flow-chart is synthesized to select the motor state at no-load for best energetic cost reduction, considering the motor thermal capacity used. An artificial neural network (ANN) state estimator, based on the recurrent architecture, is constructed and learned in order to provide fault-tolerant capability for the supervisory controller. Sequential test of Wald is used for sensor fault detection. Theoretical analysis, preliminary experimental testing and, computer simulations are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed control in terms of reliability, power quality and energy/coenergy cost reduction with the suggestion of power factor correction.

Keywords: ANN, ESM, IM, star/delta switch, supervisory control, FT, reliability, power quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
3840 A Natural Method for Reducing Pain in Female Patients

Authors: Seyed Ali Hossein Zahraei, Iman Dianat

Abstract:

The role of midwives and healthcare providers in applying pain relief methods to female patients is very important. different therapies like hydropathy, flavorer remedies, and respiratory techniques for pain relief do not work properly as what we expected. Lack of recognition of the physiological property of birth, despite findings that coming will attenuate the consequences of hurting, suggests the necessity for bigger awareness among expectant oldsters, educators, and health professionals of the potential of coming as a way of pain relief. Method: In our method we have 5 steps to achieve activation of oxytocin and dopamine pathways in order to reduce pain in all possible fields and reasons instead of using other treatments such as chemical painkillers. Step 1: First of all the patient should start by rubbing the clitoris up and down till occurring first clitoral orgasm. Step 2: Without stop rubing clitoris the patient must continue stimulate the clitoris in different way like circular motion in clock pathway until occurring second clitoral orgasm. Step 3: Immedietly the patient can change the position from clitoris to urethral opening where vestibular glands located. In this step the patient nock the urethral area very slowly without pressure and just like touching the area till feeling want to pee. But because of activation of sympathic nerves the gi tract is inactive. Step 4: In this step the patient should apply more pressure and change the motion to circular on urethral area in which the pee sensation increase but actually it is vestibular gland fluid. The patient should release it in small amount in this step. Step 5: The last step is combination of clitoral and urethral stimulation in up and down motion that cause more pee feeling and after clitoral orgasm occurred the amount of released fluid can be about 400ml.

Keywords: female, natural, method, pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
3839 The Effect of a Saturated Kink on the Dynamics of Tungsten Impurities in the Plasma Core

Authors: H. E. Ferrari, R. Farengo, C. F. Clauser

Abstract:

Tungsten (W) will be used in ITER as one of the plasma facing components (PFCs). The W could migrate to the plasma center. This could have a potentially deleterious effect on plasma confinement. Electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) can be used to prevent W accumulation. We simulated a series of H mode discharges in ASDEX U with PFC containing W, where central ECRH was used to prevent W accumulation in the plasma center. The experiments showed that the W density profiles were flat after a sawtooth crash, and become hollow in between sawtooth crashes when ECRH has been applied. It was also observed that a saturated kink mode was active in these conditions. We studied the effect of saturated kink like instabilities on the redistribution of W impurities. The kink was modeled as the sum of a simple analytical equilibrium (large aspect ratio, circular cross section) plus the perturbation produced by the kink. A numerical code that follows the exact trajectories of the impurity ions in the total fields and includes collisions was employed. The code is written in Cuda C and runs in Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), allowing simulations with a large number of particles with modest resources. Our simulations show that when the W ions have a thermal velocity distribution, the kink has no effect on the W density. When we consider the plasma rotation, the kink can affect the W density. When the average passing frequency of the W particles is similar to the frequency of the kink mode, the expulsion of W ions from the plasma core is maximum, and the W density shows a hollow structure. This could have implications for the mitigation of W accumulation.

Keywords: impurity transport, kink instability, tungsten accumulation, tungsten dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 173
3838 Application of Large Eddy Simulation-Immersed Boundary Volume Penalization Method for Heat and Mass Transfer in Granular Layers

Authors: Artur Tyliszczak, Ewa Szymanek, Maciej Marek

Abstract:

Flow through granular materials is important to a vast array of industries, for instance in construction industry where granular layers are used for bulkheads and isolators, in chemical engineering and catalytic reactors where large surfaces of packed granular beds intensify chemical reactions, or in energy production systems, where granulates are promising materials for heat storage and heat transfer media. Despite the common usage of granulates and extensive research performed in this field, phenomena occurring between granular solid elements or between solids and fluid are still not fully understood. In the present work we analyze the heat exchange process between the flowing medium (gas, liquid) and solid material inside the granular layers. We consider them as a composite of isolated solid elements and inter-granular spaces in which a gas or liquid can flow. The structure of the layer is controlled by shapes of particular granular elements (e.g., spheres, cylinders, cubes, Raschig rings), its spatial distribution or effective characteristic dimension (total volume or surface area). We will analyze to what extent alteration of these parameters influences on flow characteristics (turbulent intensity, mixing efficiency, heat transfer) inside the layer and behind it. Analysis of flow inside granular layers is very complicated because the use of classical experimental techniques (LDA, PIV, fibber probes) inside the layers is practically impossible, whereas the use of probes (e.g. thermocouples, Pitot tubes) requires drilling of holes inside the solid material. Hence, measurements of the flow inside granular layers are usually performed using for instance advanced X-ray tomography. In this respect, theoretical or numerical analyses of flow inside granulates seem crucial. Application of discrete element methods in combination with the classical finite volume/finite difference approaches is problematic as a mesh generation process for complex granular material can be very arduous. A good alternative for simulation of flow in complex domains is an immersed boundary-volume penalization (IB-VP) in which the computational meshes have simple Cartesian structure and impact of solid objects on the fluid is mimicked by source terms added to the Navier-Stokes and energy equations. The present paper focuses on application of the IB-VP method combined with large eddy simulation (LES). The flow solver used in this work is a high-order code (SAILOR), which was used previously in various studies, including laminar/turbulent transition in free flows and also for flows in wavy channels, wavy pipes and over various shape obstacles. In these cases a formal order of approximation turned out to be in between 1 and 2, depending on the test case. The current research concentrates on analyses of the flows in dense granular layers with elements distributed in a deterministic regular manner and validation of the results obtained using LES-IB method and body-fitted approach. The comparisons are very promising and show very good agreement. It is found that the size, number of elements and their distribution have huge impact on the obtained results. Ordering of the granular elements (or lack of it) affects both the pressure drop and efficiency of the heat transfer as it significantly changes mixing process.

Keywords: granular layers, heat transfer, immersed boundary method, numerical simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
3837 Bangladesh’s July Revolution: Analyzing the 2024 Movement for Free Speech and Democracy

Authors: Abu Bakar Siddik

Abstract:

The July Movement in Bangladesh marked a pivotal moment in the nation’s struggle for democratic freedom and the right to free speech. This movement, driven by citizens, intellectuals, and activists, opposed authoritarian governance and the violation of civil liberties. By encouraging support for democratic reforms, it significantly changed the political landscape and highlighted the importance of grassroots activism for human rights. This essay examines the sociopolitical dynamics of the July Movement and its roots in popular resistance to authoritarian rule. It explores the movement's beginnings, emphasizing how citizens, scholars, and activists united to challenge the regime that restricted freedom of speech. In order to show how the movement gathered support for democratic reforms and ultimately helped bring about the overthrow of the regime, the article examines significant demonstrations, speeches, and government acts. This book offers a thorough examination of how the July Movement changed Bangladesh's political landscape by acting as a revolution for free speech and a trigger for the overthrow of autocratic authority, using historical documents, media coverage, and firsthand recollections. This study provides insightful information about how grassroots activism advances human rights.

Keywords: July movement, Bangladesh, free speech, democracy, authoritarianism, civil liberties, political change, human rights, social movements, protests, political landscape, regime change, activism, socio-political dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 43
3836 Exploring the Dynamics in the EU-Association of Southeast Asia Nations Interregional Relationship, 2012-2017

Authors: Xuechen Chen

Abstract:

The EU-ASEAN relations which can be dated back to 1972 represents one of the oldest group-to-group relationship in international politics. Despite a longstanding dialogue partnership, the EU and ASEAN have long been reluctant to forge deeper and substantial cooperation in political and security domains. However, the year of 2012 witnessed a salient shift in EU-ASEAN relations, with the EU significantly elevating ASEAN's profile in its external relations. Given the limited scholarly attention that has been devoted to this change in ASEAN-EU relations, this article explores why there has been a greater level of engagement and approximation between the EU and ASEAN. In particular, it asks why the EU, which had long been reluctant to recognize ASEAN as a strategic partner, has changed its policy towards ASEAN. Drawing on social constructivism, this article argues that the EU’s and ASEAN’s evolving identity-formation processes have played a significant role in reshaping their mutual perceptions, which subsequently leads to the modification of the interregional policies of both actors. The methodology of this study is based on content analysis of a wide range of official documents and policy papers from the EU and ASEAN, as well as more than 20 in-depth elite interviews with diplomats and experts working on the EU-ASEAN relationship from both organisations. Departing from the existing works which mainly adopt a Eurocentric perspective when analysing the EU-ASEAN interregionalism, this study suggests that the approximation of the EU-ASEAN relationship between 2012 and 2017 is driven by both actors’ adjustment of international identities, together with the internal dynamics and systematic changes within both regions.

Keywords: Association of Southeast Asia Nations, European Union, EU foreign policy, interregionalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
3835 Meniere's Disease and its Prevalence, Symptoms, Risk Factors and Associated Treatment Solutions for this Disease

Authors: Amirreza Razzaghipour Sorkhab

Abstract:

One of the most common disorders among humans is hearing impairment. This paper provides an evidence base that recovers understanding of Meniere’s disease and highlights the physical and mental health correlates of the disorder. Meniere's disease is more common in the elderly. The term idiopathic endolymphatic hydrops has been attributed to this disease by some in the previous. Meniere’s disease demonstrations a genetic tendency, and a family history is found in 10% of cases, with an autosomal dominant inheritance pattern. The COCH gene may be one of the hereditary factors contributing to Meniere’s disease, and the possibility of a COCH mutation should be considered in patients with Meniere’s disease symptoms. Should be considered Missense mutations in the COCH gene cause the autosomal dominant sensorineural hearing loss and vestibular disorder. Meniere’s disease is a complex, heterogeneous disorder of the inner ear and that is characterized by episodes of vertigo lasting from minutes to hours, fluctuating sensorineural hearing loss, tinnitus, and aural fullness. The existing evidence supports the suggestion that age and sleep disorder are risk factors for Meniere's disease. Many factors have been reported to precipitate the progress of Menier, including endolymphatic hydrops, immunology, viral infection, inheritance, vestibular migraine, and altered intra-labyrinthine fluid dynamics. Although there is currently no treatment that has a proven helpful effect on hearing levels or on the long-term evolution of the disease, however, in the primary stages, the hearing may improve among attacks, but a permanent hearing loss occurs in the majority of cases. Current publications have proposed a role for the intratympanic use of medicine, mostly aminoglycosides, for the control of vertigo. more than 85% of patients with Meniere's disease are helped by either changes in lifestyle and medical treatment or minimally aggressive surgical procedures such as intratympanic steroid therapy, intratympanic gentamicin therapy, and endolymphatic sac surgery. However, unilateral vestibular extirpation methods (intratympanic gentamicin, vestibular nerve section, or labyrinthectomy) are more predictable but invasive approaches to control the vertigo attacks. Medical therapy aimed at reducing endolymph volume, such as low-sodium diet, diuretic use, is the typical initial treatment.

Keywords: meniere's disease, endolymphatic hydrops, hearing loss, vertigo, tinnitus, COCH gene

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
3834 A New Computational Tool for Noise Prediction of Rotating Surfaces (FACT)

Authors: Ana Vieira, Fernando Lau, João Pedro Mortágua, Luís Cruz, Rui Santos

Abstract:

The air transport impact on environment is more than ever a limitative obstacle to the aeronautical industry continuous growth. Over the last decades, considerable effort has been carried out in order to obtain quieter aircraft solutions, whether by changing the original design or investigating more silent maneuvers. The noise propagated by rotating surfaces is one of the most important sources of annoyance, being present in most aerial vehicles. Bearing this is mind, CEIIA developed a new computational chain for noise prediction with in-house software tools to obtain solutions in relatively short time without using excessive computer resources. This work is based on the new acoustic tool, which aims to predict the rotor noise generated during steady and maneuvering flight, making use of the flexibility of the C language and the advantages of GPU programming in terms of velocity. The acoustic tool is based in the Formulation 1A of Farassat, capable of predicting two important types of noise: the loading and thickness noise. The present work describes the most important features of the acoustic tool, presenting its most relevant results and framework analyses for helicopters and UAV quadrotors.

Keywords: rotor noise, acoustic tool, GPU Programming, UAV noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 404
3833 Reducing the Computational Overhead of Metaheuristics Parameterization with Exploratory Landscape Analysis

Authors: Iannick Gagnon, Alain April

Abstract:

The performance of a metaheuristic on a given problem class depends on the class itself and the choice of parameters. Parameter tuning is the most time-consuming phase of the optimization process after the main calculations and it often nullifies the speed advantage of metaheuristics over traditional optimization algorithms. Several off-the-shelf parameter tuning algorithms are available, but when the objective function is expensive to evaluate, these can be prohibitively expensive to use. This paper presents a surrogate-like method for finding adequate parameters using fitness landscape analysis on simple benchmark functions and real-world objective functions. The result is a simple compound similarity metric based on the empirical correlation coefficient and a measure of convexity. It is then used to find the best benchmark functions to serve as surrogates. The near-optimal parameter set is then found using fractional factorial design. The real-world problem of NACA airfoil lift coefficient maximization is used as a preliminary proof of concept. The overall aim of this research is to reduce the computational overhead of metaheuristics parameterization.

Keywords: metaheuristics, stochastic optimization, particle swarm optimization, exploratory landscape analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
3832 Clustering-Based Computational Workload Minimization in Ontology Matching

Authors: Mansir Abubakar, Hazlina Hamdan, Norwati Mustapha, Teh Noranis Mohd Aris

Abstract:

In order to build a matching pattern for each class correspondences of ontology, it is required to specify a set of attribute correspondences across two corresponding classes by clustering. Clustering reduces the size of potential attribute correspondences considered in the matching activity, which will significantly reduce the computation workload; otherwise, all attributes of a class should be compared with all attributes of the corresponding class. Most existing ontology matching approaches lack scalable attributes discovery methods, such as cluster-based attribute searching. This problem makes ontology matching activity computationally expensive. It is therefore vital in ontology matching to design a scalable element or attribute correspondence discovery method that would reduce the size of potential elements correspondences during mapping thereby reduce the computational workload in a matching process as a whole. The objective of this work is 1) to design a clustering method for discovering similar attributes correspondences and relationships between ontologies, 2) to discover element correspondences by classifying elements of each class based on element’s value features using K-medoids clustering technique. Discovering attribute correspondence is highly required for comparing instances when matching two ontologies. During the matching process, any two instances across two different data sets should be compared to their attribute values, so that they can be regarded to be the same or not. Intuitively, any two instances that come from classes across which there is a class correspondence are likely to be identical to each other. Besides, any two instances that hold more similar attribute values are more likely to be matched than the ones with less similar attribute values. Most of the time, similar attribute values exist in the two instances across which there is an attribute correspondence. This work will present how to classify attributes of each class with K-medoids clustering, then, clustered groups to be mapped by their statistical value features. We will also show how to map attributes of a clustered group to attributes of the mapped clustered group, generating a set of potential attribute correspondences that would be applied to generate a matching pattern. The K-medoids clustering phase would largely reduce the number of attribute pairs that are not corresponding for comparing instances as only the coverage probability of attributes pairs that reaches 100% and attributes above the specified threshold can be considered as potential attributes for a matching. Using clustering will reduce the size of potential elements correspondences to be considered during mapping activity, which will in turn reduce the computational workload significantly. Otherwise, all element of the class in source ontology have to be compared with all elements of the corresponding classes in target ontology. K-medoids can ably cluster attributes of each class, so that a proportion of attribute pairs that are not corresponding would not be considered when constructing the matching pattern.

Keywords: attribute correspondence, clustering, computational workload, k-medoids clustering, ontology matching

Procedia PDF Downloads 250
3831 Pressure-Controlled Dynamic Equations of the PFC Model: A Mathematical Formulation

Authors: Jatupon Em-Udom, Nirand Pisutha-Arnond

Abstract:

The phase-field-crystal, PFC, approach is a density-functional-type material model with an atomic resolution on a diffusive timescale. Spatially, the model incorporates periodic nature of crystal lattices and can naturally exhibit elasticity, plasticity and crystal defects such as grain boundaries and dislocations. Temporally, the model operates on a diffusive timescale which bypasses the need to resolve prohibitively small atomic-vibration time steps. The PFC model has been used to study many material phenomena such as grain growth, elastic and plastic deformations and solid-solid phase transformations. In this study, the pressure-controlled dynamic equation for the PFC model was developed to simulate a single-component system under externally applied pressure; these coupled equations are important for studies of deformable systems such as those under constant pressure. The formulation is based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics and the thermodynamics of crystalline solids. To obtain the equations, the entropy variation around the equilibrium point was derived. Then the resulting driving forces and flux around the equilibrium were obtained and rewritten as conventional thermodynamic quantities. These dynamics equations are different from the recently-proposed equations; the equations in this study should provide more rigorous descriptions of the system dynamics under externally applied pressure.

Keywords: driving forces and flux, evolution equation, non equilibrium thermodynamics, Onsager’s reciprocal relation, phase field crystal model, thermodynamics of single-component solid

Procedia PDF Downloads 310
3830 An Insight into the Paddy Soil Denitrifying Bacteria and Their Relation with Soil Phospholipid Fatty Acid Profile

Authors: Meenakshi Srivastava, A. K. Mishra

Abstract:

This study characterizes the metabolic versatility of denitrifying bacterial communities residing in the paddy soil using the GC-MS based Phospholipid Fatty Acid (PLFA) analyses simultaneously with nosZ gene based PCR-DGGE (Polymerase Chain Reaction-Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis) and real time Q-PCR analysis. We have analyzed the abundance of nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ) genes, which was subsequently related to soil PLFA profile and DGGE based denitrifier community structure. Soil denitrifying bacterial community comprised majority or dominance of Ochrobactrum sp. following Cupriavidus and uncultured bacteria strains in paddy soil of selected sites. Initially, we have analyzed the abundance of the nitrous oxide reductase gene (nosZ), which was found to be related with PLFA based lipid profile. Chandauli of Eastern UP, India represented greater amount of lipid content (C18-C20) and denitrifier’s diversity. This study suggests the positive co-relation between soil PLFA profiles, DGGE, and Q-PCR data. Thus, a close networking among metabolic abilities and taxonomic composition of soil microbial communities existed, and subsequently, such work at greater extent could be helpful in managing nutrient dynamics as well as microbial dynamics of paddy soil ecosystem.

Keywords: denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, DGGE, nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria, PLFA, Q-PCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
3829 Molecular Dynamics Simulation for Vibration Analysis at Nanocomposite Plates

Authors: Babak Safaei, A. M. Fattahi

Abstract:

Polymer/carbon nanotube nanocomposites have a wide range of promising applications Due to their enhanced properties. In this work, free vibration analysis of single-walled carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates is conducted in which carbon nanotubes are embedded in an amorphous polyethylene. The rule of mixture based on various types of plate model namely classical plate theory (CLPT), first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT), and higher-order shear deformation theory (HSDT) was employed to obtain fundamental frequencies of the nanocomposite plates. Generalized differential quadrature (GDQ) method was used to discretize the governing differential equations along with the simply supported and clamped boundary conditions. The material properties of the nanocomposite plates were evaluated using molecular dynamic (MD) simulation corresponding to both short-(10,10) SWCNT and long-(10,10) SWCNT composites. Then the results obtained directly from MD simulations were fitted with those calculated by the rule of mixture to extract appropriate values of carbon nanotube efficiency parameters accounting for the scale-dependent material properties. The selected numerical results are presented to address the influences of nanotube volume fraction and edge supports on the value of fundamental frequency of carbon nanotube-reinforced composite plates corresponding to both long- and short-nanotube composites.

Keywords: nanocomposites, molecular dynamics simulation, free vibration, generalized, differential quadrature (GDQ) method

Procedia PDF Downloads 332
3828 Assessment on Rumen Microbial Diversity of Bali Cattle Using 16S rRNA Sequencing

Authors: Asmuddin Natsir, A. Mujnisa, Syahriani Syahrir, Marhamah Nadir, Nurul Purnomo

Abstract:

Bacteria, protozoa, Archaea, and fungi are the dominant microorganisms found in the rumen ecosystem that has an important role in converting feed ingredients into components that can be digested and utilized by the livestock host. This study was conducted to assess the diversity of rumen bacteria of bali cattle raised under traditional farming condition. Three adult bali cattle were used in this experiment. The rumen fluid samples from the three experimental animals were obtained by the Stomach Tube method before the morning feeding. The results of study indicated that the Illumina sequencing was successful in identifying 301,589 sequences, averaging 100,533 sequences, from three rumen fluid samples of three cattle. Furthermore, based on the SILVA taxonomic database, there were 19 kinds of phyla that had been successfully identified. Of the 19 phyla, there were only two dominant groups across the three samples, namely Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes, with an average percentage of 83.68% and 13.43%, respectively. Other groups such as Synergistetes, Spirochaetae, Planctomycetes can also be identified but in relatively small percentage. At the genus level, there were 157 sequences obtained from all three samples. Of this number, the most dominant group was Prevotella 1 with a percentage of 71.82% followed by 6.94% of Christencenellaceae R-7 group. Other groups such as Prevotellaceae UCG-001, Ruminococcaceae NK4A214 group, Sphaerochaeta, Ruminococcus 2, Rikenellaceae RC9 gut group, Quinella were also identified but with very low percentages. The sequencing results were able to detect the presence of 3.06% and 3.92% respectively for uncultured rumen bacterium and uncultured bacterium. In conclusion, the results of this experiment can provide an opportunity for a better understanding of the rumen bacterial diversity of the bali cattle raised under traditional farming condition and insight regarding the uncultured rumen bacterium and uncultured bacterium that need to be further explored.

Keywords: 16S rRNA sequencing, bali cattle, rumen microbial diversity, uncultured rumen bacterium

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
3827 The Impact of Diesel Exhaust Particles on Tight Junction Proteins on Nose and Lung in a Mouse Model

Authors: Kim Byeong-Gon, Lee Pureun-Haneul, Hong Jisu, Jang An-Soo

Abstract:

Background: Diesel exhaust particles (DEPs) lead to trigger airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) and airway dysfunction or inflammation in respiratory systems. Whether tight junction protein changes can contribute to development or exacerbations of airway diseases remain to be clarified. Objective: The aim of this study was to observe the effect of DEP on tight junction proteins in one airway both nose and lung in a mouse model. Methods: Mice were treated with saline (Sham) and exposed to 100 μg/m³ DEPs 1 hour a day for 5 days a week for 4 weeks and 8 weeks in a closed-system chamber attached to a ultrasonic nebulizer. Airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) was measured and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid, nasal lavage (NAL) fluid, lung and nasal tissue was collected. The effects of DEP on tight junction proteins were estimated using western blot, immunohistochemical in lung and nasal tissue. Results: Airway hyperresponsiveness and number of inflammatory cells were higher in DEP exposure group than in control group, and were higher in 4 and 8 weeks model than in control group. The expression of tight junction proteins CLND4, -5, and -17 in both lung and nasal tissue were significantly increased in DEP exposure group than in the control group. Conclusion: These results suggesting that CLDN4, -5 and -17 may be involved in the airway both nose and lung, suggesting that air pollutants cause to disruption of epithelial and endothelial cell barriers. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as 'The Environmental Health Action Program' (2016001360009) and Soonchunhyang University Research Fund.

Keywords: diesel exhaust particles, air pollutant, tight junction, Claudin, Airway inflammation

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
3826 Predictive Analytics of Bike Sharing Rider Parameters

Authors: Bongs Lainjo

Abstract:

The evolution and escalation of bike-sharing programs (BSP) continue unabated. Since the sixties, many countries have introduced different models and strategies of BSP. These include variations ranging from dockless models to electronic real-time monitoring systems. Reasons for using this BSP include recreation, errands, work, etc. And there is all indication that complex, and more innovative rider-friendly systems are yet to be introduced. The objective of this paper is to analyze current variables established by different operators and streamline them identifying the most compelling ones using analytics. Given the contents of available databases, there is a lack of uniformity and common standard on what is required and what is not. Two factors appear to be common: user type (registered and unregistered, and duration of each trip). This article uses historical data provided by one operator based in the greater Washington, District of Columbia, USA area. Several variables including categorical and continuous data types were screened. Eight out of 18 were considered acceptable and significantly contribute to determining a useful and reliable predictive model. Bike-sharing systems have become popular in recent years all around the world. Although this trend has resulted in many studies on public cycling systems, there have been few previous studies on the factors influencing public bicycle travel behavior. A bike-sharing system is a computer-controlled system in which individuals can borrow bikes for a fee or free for a limited period. This study has identified unprecedented useful, and pragmatic parameters required in improving BSP ridership dynamics.

Keywords: sharing program, historical data, parameters, ridership dynamics, trip duration

Procedia PDF Downloads 141
3825 Reinforcement Learning for Robust Missile Autopilot Design: TRPO Enhanced by Schedule Experience Replay

Authors: Bernardo Cortez, Florian Peter, Thomas Lausenhammer, Paulo Oliveira

Abstract:

Designing missiles’ autopilot controllers have been a complex task, given the extensive flight envelope and the nonlinear flight dynamics. A solution that can excel both in nominal performance and in robustness to uncertainties is still to be found. While Control Theory often debouches into parameters’ scheduling procedures, Reinforcement Learning has presented interesting results in ever more complex tasks, going from videogames to robotic tasks with continuous action domains. However, it still lacks clearer insights on how to find adequate reward functions and exploration strategies. To the best of our knowledge, this work is a pioneer in proposing Reinforcement Learning as a framework for flight control. In fact, it aims at training a model-free agent that can control the longitudinal non-linear flight dynamics of a missile, achieving the target performance and robustness to uncertainties. To that end, under TRPO’s methodology, the collected experience is augmented according to HER, stored in a replay buffer and sampled according to its significance. Not only does this work enhance the concept of prioritized experience replay into BPER, but it also reformulates HER, activating them both only when the training progress converges to suboptimal policies, in what is proposed as the SER methodology. The results show that it is possible both to achieve the target performance and to improve the agent’s robustness to uncertainties (with low damage on nominal performance) by further training it in non-nominal environments, therefore validating the proposed approach and encouraging future research in this field.

Keywords: Reinforcement Learning, flight control, HER, missile autopilot, TRPO

Procedia PDF Downloads 270
3824 Insights Into Serotonin-Receptor Binding and Stability via Molecular Dynamics Simulations: Key Residues for Electrostatic Interactions and Signal Transduction

Authors: Arunima Verma, Padmabati Mondal

Abstract:

Serotonin-receptor binding plays a key role in several neurological and biological processes, including mood, sleep, hunger, cognition, learning, and memory. In this article, we performed molecular dynamics simulation to examine the key residues that play an essential role in the binding of serotonin to the G-protein-coupled 5-HT₁ᴮ receptor (5-HT₁ᴮ R) via electrostatic interactions. An end-point free energy calculation method (MM-PBSA) determines the stability of the 5-HT1B R due to serotonin binding. The single-point mutation of the polar or charged amino acid residues (Asp129, Thr134) on the binding sites and the calculation of binding free energy validate the importance of these residues in the stability of the serotonin-receptor complex. Principal component analysis indicates the serotonin-bound 5-HT1BR is more stabilized than the apo-receptor in terms of dynamical changes. The difference dynamic cross-correlations map shows the correlation between the transmembrane and mini-Go, which indicates signal transduction happening between mini-Go and the receptor. Allosteric communication reveals the key nodes for signal transduction in 5-HT1BR. These results provide useful insights into the signal transduction pathways and mutagenesis study to regulate the functionality of the complex. The developed protocols can be applied to study local non-covalent interactions and long-range allosteric communications in any protein-ligand system for computer-aided drug design.

Keywords: allostery, CADD, MD simulations, MM-PBSA

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
3823 Hemodynamics of a Cerebral Aneurysm under Rest and Exercise Conditions

Authors: Shivam Patel, Abdullah Y. Usmani

Abstract:

Physiological flow under rest and exercise conditions in patient-specific cerebral aneurysm models is numerically investigated. A finite-volume based code with BiCGStab as the linear equation solver is used to simulate unsteady three-dimensional flow field through the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Flow characteristics are first established in a healthy cerebral artery for both physiological conditions. The effect of saccular aneurysm on cerebral hemodynamics is then explored through a comparative analysis of the velocity distribution, nature of flow patterns, wall pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) against the reference configuration. The efficacy of coil embolization as a potential strategy of surgical intervention is also examined by modelling coil as a homogeneous and isotropic porous medium where the extended Darcy’s law, including Forchheimer and Brinkman terms, is applicable. The Carreau-Yasuda non-Newtonian blood model is incorporated to capture the shear thinning behavior of blood. Rest and exercise conditions correspond to normotensive and hypertensive blood pressures respectively. The results indicate that the fluid impingement on the outer wall of the arterial bend leads to abnormality in the distribution of wall pressure and WSS, which is expected to be the primary cause of the localized aneurysm. Exercise correlates with elevated flow velocity, vortex strength, wall pressure and WSS inside the aneurysm sac. With the insertion of coils in the aneurysm cavity, the flow bypasses the dilatation, leading to a decline in flow velocities and WSS. Particle residence time is observed to be lower under exercise conditions, a factor favorable for arresting plaque deposition and combating atherosclerosis.

Keywords: 3D FVM, Cerebral aneurysm, hypertension, coil embolization, non-Newtonian fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
3822 Parameter and Lose Effect Analysis of Beta Stirling Cycle Refrigerating Machine

Authors: Muluken Z. Getie, Francois Lanzetta, Sylvie Begot, Bimrew T. Admassu

Abstract:

This study is aimed at the numerical analysis of the effects of phase angle and losses (shuttle heat loss and gas leakage to the crankcase) that could have an impact on the pressure and temperature of working fluid for a β-type Stirling cycle refrigerating machine. First, the developed numerical model incorporates into the ideal adiabatic analysis, the shuttle heat transfer (heat loss from compression space to expansion space), and gas leakage from the working space to the buffer space into the crankcase. The other losses that may not have a direct effect on the temperature and pressure of working fluid are simply incorporated in a simple analysis. The model is then validated by reversing the model to the engine model and compared with other literature results using (GPU-3) engine. After validating the model with other engine model and experiment results, analysis of the effect of phase angle, shuttle heat lose and gas leakage on temperature, pressure, and performance (power requirement, cooling capacity and coefficient of performance) of refrigerating machine considering the FEMTO 60 Stirling engine as a case study have been conducted. Shuttle heat loss has a greater effect on the temperature of working gas; gas leakage to the crankcase has more effect on the pressure of working spaces and hence both have a considerable impact on the performance of the Stirling cycle refrigerating machine. The optimum coefficient of performance exists between phase angles of 900-950, and optimum cooling capacity could be found between phase angles of 950-980.

Keywords: beta configuration, engine model, moderate cooling, stirling refrigerator, and validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
3821 Analysis of Lift Force in Hydrodynamic Transport of a Finite Sized Particle in Inertial Microfluidics with a Rectangular Microchannel

Authors: Xinghui Wu, Chun Yang

Abstract:

Inertial microfluidics is a competitive fluidic method with applications in separation of particles, cells and bacteria. In contrast to traditional microfluidic devices with low Reynolds number, inertial microfluidics works in the intermediate Re number range which brings about several intriguing inertial effects on particle separation/focusing to meet the throughput requirement in the real-world. Geometric modifications to make channels become irregular shapes can leverage fluid inertia to create complex secondary flow for adjusting the particle equilibrium positions and thus enhance the separation resolution and throughput. Although inertial microfluidics has been extensively studied by experiments, our current understanding of its mechanisms is poor, making it extremely difficult to build rational-design guidelines for the particle focusing locations, especially for irregularly shaped microfluidic channels. Inertial particle microfluidics in irregularly shaped channels were investigated in our group. There are several fundamental issues that require us to address. One of them is about the balance between the inertial lift forces and the secondary drag forces. Also, it is critical to quantitatively describe the dependence of the life forces on particle-particle interactions in irregularly shaped channels, such as a rectangular one. To provide physical insights into the inertial microfluidics in channels of irregular shapes, in this work the immersed boundary-lattice Boltzmann method (IB-LBM) was introduced and validated to explore the transport characteristics and the underlying mechanisms of an inertial focusing single particle in a rectangular microchannel. The transport dynamics of a finitesized particle were investigated over wide ranges of Reynolds number (20 < Re < 500) and particle size. The results show that the inner equilibrium positions are more difficult to occur in the rectangular channel, which can be explained by the secondary flow caused by the presence of a finite-sized particle. Furthermore, force decoupling analysis was utilized to study the effect of each type of lift force on the inertia migration, and a theoretical model for the lateral lift force of a finite-sized particle in the rectangular channel was established. Such theoretical model can be used to provide theoretical guidance for the design and operation of inertial microfluidics.

Keywords: inertial microfluidics, particle focuse, life force, IB-LBM

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
3820 Dietary N-6/N-3 PUFA Ratios Affect the Homeostasis of CD4+ T Cells in Mice with Dextran Sulfate Sodium-Induced Colitis

Authors: Cyoung-Huei Huang, Chiu-Li Yeh, Man-Hui Pai, Sung-Ling Yeh

Abstract:

This study evaluated the effect of different dietary n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) ratios on modulating helper T (Th) and regulatory T (Treg) lymphocytes in mice with dextran sulfate sodium (DSS)-induced colitis. There were 3 control and 3 colitis groups in this study. Mice were fed for 24 d with an AIN-93G diet either with soybean oil (S), a mixture of soybean oil and low fish oil content (LF) or high fish oil content (HF). The ratio of n-6/n-3 PUFA in the LF diet was 4:1, and that in the HF diet was 2:1. The control groups drank distilled water while colitis groups provided 2% DSS in drinking water during day 15-19. All mice drank distilled water from day 20-24 for recovery and sacrificed on day 25. The results showed that colitis resulted in higher Th1, Th2, and Th17 and lower Treg percentages in the blood. Also, plasma haptoglobin and proinflammatory chemokines were elevated in colon lavage fluid. Colitic groups with fish oil had lower inflammatory mediators in the plasma and colon lavage fluid. Further, the percentages of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cells in the blood were lower, whereas Treg cell percentages were higher than those in the soybean oil group. The colitis group with n-6/n-3 PUFA ratio 2:1 had more pronounce effects than ratio 4:1. These results suggest that diets with an n-6/n-3 PUFA ratio of 2:1 or 4:1 regulate the Th/Treg balance and attenuate inflammatory mediator production in colitis. Compared to the n-6/n-3 PUFA ratio 4:1, the ratio of 2:1 was more effective in reducing inflammatory reactions in DSS-induced colitis.

Keywords: inflammatory bowel disease, n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, helper T lymphocyte, regulatory T lymphocyte

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
3819 System Identification in Presence of Outliers

Authors: Chao Yu, Qing-Guo Wang, Dan Zhang

Abstract:

The outlier detection problem for dynamic systems is formulated as a matrix decomposition problem with low-rank, sparse matrices and further recast as a semidefinite programming (SDP) problem. A fast algorithm is presented to solve the resulting problem while keeping the solution matrix structure and it can greatly reduce the computational cost over the standard interior-point method. The computational burden is further reduced by proper construction of subsets of the raw data without violating low rank property of the involved matrix. The proposed method can make exact detection of outliers in case of no or little noise in output observations. In case of significant noise, a novel approach based on under-sampling with averaging is developed to denoise while retaining the saliency of outliers and so-filtered data enables successful outlier detection with the proposed method while the existing filtering methods fail. Use of recovered “clean” data from the proposed method can give much better parameter estimation compared with that based on the raw data.

Keywords: outlier detection, system identification, matrix decomposition, low-rank matrix, sparsity, semidefinite programming, interior-point methods, denoising

Procedia PDF Downloads 311
3818 Inferring Influenza Epidemics in the Presence of Stratified Immunity

Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

Abstract:

Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

Procedia PDF Downloads 263
3817 A Data-Driven Compartmental Model for Dengue Forecasting and Covariate Inference

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 90