Search results for: predictive accuracy

Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: Johan Loeckx, Joeri Bultheel

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Recently, the application of deep learning to music has gained popularity. Its true potential, however, has been largely unexplored. In this paper, a new idea for representing the dynamic behavior of music is proposed. A ”forward” conditional RBM takes into account not only preceding but also future samples during training. Though this may sound controversial at first sight, it will be shown that it makes sense from a musical and neuro-cognitive perspective. The model is applied to reconstruct music based upon the first notes and to improvise in the musical style of a composer. Different to expectations, reconstruction accuracy with respect to a regular CRBM with the same order, was not significantly improved. More research is needed to test the performance on unseen data.

Keywords: deep learning, restricted boltzmann machine, music generation, conditional restricted boltzmann machine (CRBM)

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Authors: Krasimir I. Ivanov, Penka S. Zapryanova, Stefan V. Krustev, Violina R. Angelova

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Three commonly used digestion methods (dry ashing, acid digestion, and microwave digestion) in different variants were compared for digestion of tobacco leaves. Three main macroelements (K, Ca and Mg) were analysed using AAS Spectrometer Spectra АА 220, Varian, Australia. The accuracy and precision of the measurements were evaluated by using Polish reference material CTR-VTL-2 (Virginia tobacco leaves). To elucidate the problems with elemental recovery X-Ray and SEM–EDS analysis of all residues after digestion were performed. The X-ray investigation showed a formation of KClO₄ when HClO4 was used as a part of the acids mixture. The use of HF at Ca and Mg determination led to the formation of CaF₂ and MgF₂. The results were confirmed by energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis. SPSS program for Windows was used for statistical data processing.

Keywords: digestion methods, plant tissue, determination of macroelements, K, Ca, Mg

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Authors: Elsayeda M. Elgaml, Dina M. Ibrahim, Elsayed A. Sallam

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Association rule mining is one of the most important fields of data mining and knowledge discovery. In this paper, we propose an efficient multiple support frequent pattern growth algorithm which we called “MSFP-growth” that enhancing the FP-growth algorithm by making infrequent child node pruning step with multiple minimum support using maximum constrains. The algorithm is implemented, and it is compared with other common algorithms: Apriori-multiple minimum supports using maximum constraints and FP-growth. The experimental results show that the rule mining from the proposed algorithm are interesting and our algorithm achieved better performance than other algorithms without scarifying the accuracy.

Keywords: association rules, FP-growth, multiple minimum supports, Weka tool

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Authors: Rafal Sochaczewski, Ksenia Siadkowska, Tytus Tulwin

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The paper describes the modeling of a fuel injector for common rail systems. A one-dimensional model of a solenoid-valve-controlled injector with Valve Closes Orifice (VCO) spray was modelled in the AVL Hydsim. This model shows the dynamic phenomena that occur in the injector. The accuracy of the calibration, based on a regulation of the parameters of the control valve and the nozzle needle lift, was verified by comparing the numerical results of injector flow rate. Our model is capable of a precise simulation of injector operating parameters in relation to injection time and fuel pressure in a fuel rail. As a result, there were made characteristics of the injector flow rate and backflow.

Keywords: common rail, diesel engine, fuel injector, modeling

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Authors: Osama Zayed

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Aim of the work: The aim of this study is to assess the predictors of pelvic vascular injuries in patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma. Methods: This study was conducted as a tool-assessment study. Forty six patients with pelvic fractures from major blunt trauma will be recruited to the study arriving to department of emergency, Suez Canal University Hospital. Data were collected from questionnaire including; personal data of the studied patients and full medical history, clinical examinations, outcome measures (The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), laboratory and imaging studies. Patients underwent surgical interventions or further investigations based on the conventional standards for interventions. All patients were followed up during conservative, operative and post-operative periods in the hospital for interpretation the predictive scores of vascular injuries. Results: Significant predictors of vascular injuries according to computed tomography (CT) scan include age, male gender, lower Glasgow coma (GCS) scores, occurrence of hypotension, mortality rate, higher physical POSSUM scores, presence of ultrasound collection, type of management, higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) POSSUM scores, presence of abdominal injuries, and poor outcome. Conclusions: There was higher frequency of males than females in the studied patients. There were high probability of morbidity and low probability of mortality among patients. Our study demonstrates that POSSUM score can be used as a predictor of vascular injury in pelvis fracture patients.

Keywords: predictors, pelvic vascular injuries, pelvic fractures, major blunt trauma, POSSUM

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Authors: Firas Gerges, Frank Y. Shih

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Malignant melanoma, known simply as melanoma, is a type of skin cancer that appears as a mole on the skin. It is critical to detect this cancer at an early stage because it can spread across the body and may lead to the patient's death. When detected early, melanoma is curable. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model (convolutional neural networks) in order to automatically classify skin lesion images as malignant or benign. Images underwent certain pre-processing steps to diminish the effect of the normal skin region on the model. The result of the proposed model showed a significant improvement over previous work, achieving an accuracy of 97%.

Keywords: deep learning, skin cancer, image processing, melanoma

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

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Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: Claude Tadonki

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We address the issues related to the computation of the covariance matrix. This matrix is likely to be ill conditioned following its canonical expression, thus consequently raises serious numerical issues. The underlying linear system, which therefore should be solved by means of iterative approaches, becomes computationally challenging. A huge number of iterations is expected in order to reach an acceptable level of convergence, necessary to meet the required accuracy of the computation. In addition, this linear system needs to be solved at each iteration following the general form of the covariance matrix. Putting all together, its comes that we need to compute as fast as possible the associated matrix-vector product. This is our purpose in the work, where we consider and discuss skillful formulations of the problem, then propose a parallel implementation of the matrix-vector product involved. Numerical and performance oriented discussions are provided based on experimental evaluations.

Keywords: covariance-matrix, multicore, numerical computing, parallel computing

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Authors: Michelle Rippy

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Medicolegal death investigation historically is a field that does not receive much research attention or advancement, as all of the subjects are deceased. Public health threats, drug epidemics and contagious diseases are typically recognized in decedents first, with thorough and accurate death investigations able to assist in epidemiology research and prevention programs. One vital component of medicolegal death investigation is determining the decedent’s time of death. An accurate time of death can assist in corroborating alibies, determining sequence of death in multiple casualty circumstances and provide vital facts in civil situations. Popular television portrays an unrealistic forensic ability to provide the exact time of death to the minute for someone found deceased with no witnesses present. The actuality of unattended decedent time of death determination can generally only be narrowed to a 4-6 hour window. In the mid- to late-20th century, liver temperatures were an invasive action taken by death investigators to determine the decedent’s core temperature. The core temperature was programmed into an equation to determine an approximate time of death. Due to many inconsistencies with the placement of the thermometer and other variables, the accuracy of the liver temperatures was dispelled and this once common place action lost scientific support. Currently, medicolegal death investigators utilize three major after death or post-mortem changes at a death scene. Many factors are considered in the subjective determination as to the time of death, including the cooling of the decedent, stiffness of the muscles, release of blood internally, clothing, ambient temperature, disease and recent exercise. Current research is utilizing non-invasive hospital grade tympanic thermometers to measure the temperature in the each of the decedent’s ears. This tool can be used at the scene and in conjunction with scene indicators may provide a more accurate time of death. The research is significant and important to investigations and can provide an area of accuracy to a historically inaccurate area, considerably improving criminal and civil death investigations. The goal of the research is to provide a scientific basis to unwitnessed deaths, instead of the art that the determination currently is. The research is currently in progress with expected termination in December 2018. There are currently 15 completed case studies with vital information including the ambient temperature, decedent height/weight/sex/age, layers of clothing, found position, if medical intervention occurred and if the death was witnessed. This data will be analyzed with the multiple variables studied and available for presentation in January 2019.

Keywords: algor mortis, forensic pathology, investigations, medicolegal, time of death, tympanic

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: G. Nitesh

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The shear strength of soils is a crucial parameter instability analysis. Therefore, it is important to determine reliable values for the accuracy of stability analysis. Direct shear tests are mostly performed to determine the shear strength of cohesionless soils. The major limitation of the direct shear test is that the failure takes place through the pre-defined failure plane but the failure is not along pre-defined plane and is along the weakest plane in actual shearing mechanism that goes on in the field. This leads to overestimating the strength parameter; hence, a new apparatus called simple shear is developed and used in this study to determine the shear strength parameter that simulates the field conditions.

Keywords: direct shear, simple shear, angle of shear resistance, cohesionless soils

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Authors: A. Kherraf, M. Bouziane, A. Drighil, L. Azzouzi, R. Habbal

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Objective: Myxomas are rare heart tumors most commonly found in the left atrium. The purpose of this observation is to report a rare case of myxoma of the right atrium revealed by pulmonary embolism. Observation: A 34-year-old patient with no history presented to the emergency room with sudden onset dyspnea. Clinical examination showed arterial pressure at 110/70mmHg, tachycardia at 110bpm, and 90% oxygen saturation. The ECG enrolled in incomplete right bundle branch block. The radio-thorax was normal. Echocardiography revealed the presence of a large homogeneous intra-OD mass, contiguous to the inter-atrial septum, prolapsing through the tricuspid valve, and causing mild tricuspid insufficiency, with dilation of the right ventricle and retained systolic function with PAPs estimated at 45mmHg. A chest scan was performed, revealing the presence of right segmental pulmonary embolism. The patient was put under anticoagulant and underwent surgical resection of the mass; its pathological examination concluded to a myxoma. The post-operative consequences were simple, without recurrence of the mass after one year follow-up. Discussion: Myxomas represent 50% of heart tumors. Most often, they originate in the left atrium, and more rarely in the right atrium or the ventricles. Myxoma of the right atrium can be responsible for life-threatening pulmonary embolism. The most predictive factor for embolization remains the morphology of the myxomas; papillary or villous myxomas are the most friable. Surgery is the standard treatment, with regular postoperative follow-up to detect recurrence. Conclusion: Myxomas of the right atrium are a rare location for these tumors. Pulmonary embolism is the main complication and should routinely involve careful study of the right chambers on echocardiography.

Keywords: pulmonary embolism, myxoma, right atrium, heart tumors

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Authors: Nawaporn Thongnut

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The objective was to study the process and how to prepare the accounting of the Thai temples and to study the performance and quality in the accounting preparation of the temples in accordance with the regulation. The population was the accountants and individuals involved in the accounting preparation of 17 temples in the suburban Bangkok. The measurement used in this study was questionnaire. The statistics used in the analysis are the descriptive statistic. The data was presented in the form of percentage tables to describe the data on the demographic characteristics. The study found that temple wardens were responsible for the accounting and reporting of the temples. Abbots were to check the accuracy of the accounts in the monasteries. Mostly, there was no account auditing of the monasteries from the outside. The practice when receiving income for most of the monasteries had been keeping financial document in an orderly manner.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, creating shared value, management accountant’s roles, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

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Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Félix David Suárez Bonilla

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A sentiment analysis service to detect polarity (positive, neural, and negative), based on transfer learning, was built using a Spanish version of BERT and applied to tweets written in Spanish. The dataset that was used consisted of 11975 reviews, which were extracted from Google Play using the google-play-scrapper package. The BETO trained model used: the AdamW optimizer, a batch size of 16, a learning rate of 2x10⁻⁵ and 10 epochs. The system was tested using tweets of three presidential pre-candidates from Costa Rica. The system was finally validated using human labeled examples, achieving an accuracy of 83.3%.

Keywords: NLP, transfer learning, BERT, sentiment analysis, social media, opinion mining

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Authors: Edna T. Bernabe, Joshua Bilolo, Sheila Mae Artillero, Catlicia Joy Caseda, Liezel Once, Donne Ynah Grace Quirante

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Internal communication is significant for an organization to function to its full extent. A strategic communication plan builds an organization’s structure and makes it more systematic. Information is a vital part of communication inside the organization as this lays every possible outcome—be it positive or negative. It is, therefore, imperative to assess the communication structure of a particular organization to secure a better and harmonious communication environment in any organization. Thus, this research was intended to identify the internal communication channels used in Polytechnic University of the Philippines-College of Communication (PUP-COC) as an organization, to identify the flow of information specifically in downward, upward, and horizontal communication, to assess the accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of its internal communication channels; and to come up with a proposed strategic communication plan of information dissemination to improve the existing communication flow in the college. The researchers formulated a framework from Input-Throughout-Output-Feedback-Goal of General System Theory and gathered data to assess the PUP-COC’s internal communication. The communication model links the objectives of the study to know the internal organization of the college. The qualitative approach and case study as the tradition of inquiry were used to gather deeper understanding of the internal organizational communication in PUP-COC, using Interview, as the primary methods for the study. This was supported with a quantitative data which were gathered through survey from the students of the college. The researchers interviewed 17 participants: the College dean, the 4 chairpersons of the college departments, the 11 faculty members and staff, and the acting Student Council president. An interview guide and a standardized questionnaire were formulated as instruments to generate the data. After a thorough analysis of the study, it was found out that two-way communication flow exists in PUP-COC. The type of communication channel the internal stakeholders use varies as to whom a particular person is communicating with. The members of the PUP-COC community also use different types of communication channels depending on the flow of communication being used. Moreover, the most common types of internal communication are the letters and memoranda for downward communication, while letters, text messages, and interpersonal communication are often used in upward communication. Various forms of social media have been found out to be of use in horizontal communication. Accuracy, consistency, and timeliness play a significant role in information dissemination within the college. However, some problems have also been found out in the communication system. The most common problem are the delay in the dissemination of memoranda and letters and the uneven distribution of information and instruction to faculty, staff, and students. This has led the researchers to formulate a strategic communication plan which aims to propose strategies that will solve the communication problems that are being experienced by the internal stakeholders.

Keywords: communication plan, downward communication, internal communication, upward communication

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Authors: Sara Ataei, Maryam Taghizadeh-Ghehi, Amir Sarayani, Asieh Ashouri, Amirhossein Moslehi, Molouk Hadjibabaie, Kheirollah Gholami

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Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients with an incidence of 21–73%. Prevention and early diagnosis reduces the frequency and severity of this complication. Predictive biomarkers are of major importance to timely diagnosis. Neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a widely investigated novel biomarker for early diagnosis of AKI. However, no study assessed NGAL for AKI diagnosis in HSCT patients. Methods: We performed further analyses on gathered data from our recent trial to evaluate the performance of urine NGAL (uNGAL) as an indicator of AKI in 72 allogeneic HSCT patients. AKI diagnosis and severity were assessed using Risk–Injury–Failure–Loss–End-stage renal disease and AKI Network criteria. We assessed uNGAL on days -6, -3, +3, +9 and +15. Results: Time-dependent Cox regression analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between uNGAL and AKI occurrence. (HR=1.04 (1.008-1.07), P=0.01). There was a relation between uNGAL day +9 to baseline ratio and incidence of AKI (unadjusted HR=.1.047(1.012-1.083), P<0.01). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for day +9 to baseline ratio was 0.86 (0.74-0.99, P<0.01) and a cut-off value of 2.62 was 85% sensitive and 83% specific in predicting AKI. Conclusions: Our results indicated that increase in uNGAL augmented the risk of AKI and the changes of day +9 uNGAL concentrations from baseline could be of value for predicting AKI in HSCT patients. Additionally uNGAL changes preceded serum creatinine rises by nearly 2 days.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, hemtopoietic stem cell transplantation, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, Receiver-operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Li Ziming, He Cunfu, Liu Zenghua

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With aim for delamination type defects detection in manufacturing process of seamless pipe,this paper studies the interaction of the circumferential lamb wave with delamination in aluminum pipe.The delamination is located in the middle of pipe wall.A numerical study is carried out,the circumferential lamb wave used here is CL0 mode,which is generated with a finite element method code.Wave structures from the simulation are compared with theoretical results to verify the model’s accuracy.Delamination along the circumferential direction is established by demerging nodes of the same coordinates.When CL0 mode is incident at the entrance and exit of a delamination,it generates new mode-CL1,undergoes multiple reverberation and mode conversions between the two ends of the delamination. Signals of different receptions are obtained to provide insight in using CL0 mode for locating the delamination.

Keywords: circumferential lamb wave, delamination, FEM, seamless pipe

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Authors: Mekha Mathew, Varun P Gopi

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Wireless Capsule Endoscopy (WCE) has become a great device in Gastrointestinal (GI) tract diagnosis, which can examine the entire GI tract, especially the small intestine without invasiveness and sedation. Bleeding in the digestive tract is a symptom of a disease rather than a disease itself. Hence the detection of bleeding is important in diagnosing many diseases. In this paper we proposes a novel method for distinguishing bleeding regions from normal regions based on Contourlet transform and Local Binary Pattern (LBP). Experiments show that this method provides a high accuracy rate of 96.38% in CIE XYZ colour space for k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN) classifier.

Keywords: Wireless Capsule Endoscopy, local binary pattern, k-NN classifier, contourlet transform

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Authors: Aya Mousa, Mahmoud Alsaheb

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Question Answering System (QAS) aims to provide the most suitable answer to the user's question in any natural language. In the recent future, it will be a future version of web search. Much research has already been done on answering Arabic factoid questions and achieved good accuracy. In contrast, the progress in research on Arabic non-factoid question answering is still immature. In this survey, we summarize, discuss, and compare the existing Arab non-factoid question-answering systems to identify the limitations and the achievements that were accomplished. Furthermore, we investigate the challenges in developing non-factoid Arabic QAS and the possible future improvements. The survey is written to help the researchers to understand the field of Arabic non-factoid QAS and to motivate them to utilize different approaches to develop and enhance the Non-factoid Arabic QAS

Keywords: Arabic question answering system, non-factoid question answering, Arabic NLP, question answering

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Authors: Sushil Kumar, M. Dakshina Murty

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Thermal network modelling has proven to be important tool for thermal analysis of electrical machine. This article investigates numerical thermal network model and experimental performance of a large-scale AC motor. Experimental temperatures were measured using RTD in the stator which have been compared with the numerical data. Thermal network modelling fairly predicts the temperature of various components inside the large-scale AC motor. Results of stator winding temperature is compared with experimental results which are in close agreement with accuracy of 6-10%. This method of predicting hot spots within AC motors can be readily used by the motor designers for estimating the thermal hot spots of the machine.

Keywords: AC motor, thermal network, heat transfer, modelling

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Authors: R. Srinivas, K. V. Ramana

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This paper presents a novel method called VESTAL to label vertebrae and inter vertebral discs. Each vertebra has certain statistical features properties. To label vertebrae and discs, a new equation to model the path of spinal cord is derived using statistical properties of the spinal canal. VESTAL uses this equation for labeling vertebrae and discs. For each vertebrae and inter vertebral discs both posterior, interior width, height are measured. The calculated values are compared with real values which are measured using venires calipers and the comparison produced 95% efficiency and accurate results. The VESTAL is applied on 50 patients 350 MR images and obtained 100% accuracy in labeling.

Keywords: spine, vertebrae, inter vertebral disc, labeling, statistics, texture, disc

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Yang Zhong, Heng Liu

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The decoupling method and the modified Naiver method are combined for accurate bending analysis of rectangular thick plates with all edges clamped supported. The basic governing equations for Mindlin plates are first decoupled into independent partial differential equations which can be solved separately. Using modified Navier method, the analytic solution of rectangular thick plate with all edges clamped supported is then derived. The solution method used in this paper leave out the complicated derivation for calculating coefficients and obtain the solution to problems directly. Numerical comparisons show the correctness and accuracy of the results at last.

Keywords: Mindlin plates, decoupling method, modified Navier method, bending rectangular plates

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Authors: S. Da Costa, D. Páez, F. Sánchez

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We examine the causal role of positive affect on creativity, the association of creativity or innovation in the ideation phase with functional emotional regulation, successful adjustment to stress and dispositional emotional creativity, as well as the predictive role of creativity for positive emotions and social adjustment. The study examines the effects of modification of positive affect on creativity. Participants write three poems, narrate an infatuation episode, answer a scale of personal growth after this episode and perform a creativity task, answer a flow scale after creativity task and fill a dispositional emotional creativity scale. High and low positive effect was induced by asking subjects to write three poems about high and low positive connotation stimuli. In a neutral condition, tasks were performed without previous affect induction. Subjects on the condition of high positive affect report more positive and less negative emotions, more personal growth (effect size r = .24) and their last poem was rated as more original by judges (effect size r = .33). Mediational analysis showed that positive emotions explain the influence of the manipulation on personal growth - positive affect correlates r = .33 to personal growth. The emotional creativity scale correlated to creativity scores of the creative task (r = .14), to the creativity of the narration of the infatuation episode (r = .21). Emotional creativity was also associated, during performing the creativity task, with flow (r = .27) and with affect balance (r = .26). The mediational analysis showed that emotional creativity predicts flow through positive affect. Results suggest that innovation in the phase of ideation is associated with a positive affect balance and satisfactory performance, as well as dispositional emotional creativity is adaptive.

Keywords: affectivity, creativity, induction, innovation, psychological factors

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Authors: Qiang Wang, Hongyang Yu, MingRong Lai, Miao Luo

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This paper presents a method for accurately localizing and interacting with known surface defects by overlaying patterns onto real-world surfaces using a projection system. Given the world coordinates of the defects, we project corresponding patterns onto the surfaces, providing an intuitive visualization of the specific defect locations. To enable users to interact with and retrieve more information about individual defects, we implement a gesture recognition system based on a pruned and optimized version of YOLOv6. This lightweight model achieves an accuracy of 82.8% and is suitable for deployment on low-performance devices. Our approach demonstrates the potential for enhancing defect identification, inspection processes, and user interaction in various applications.

Keywords: defect localization, projection mapping, gesture recognition, YOLOv6

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Tarek Zayed, Osama Moselhi

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In this paper, an effective non-destructive, non-invasive approach for leak detection was proposed. The process relies on analyzing thermal images collected by an IR viewer device that captures thermo-grams. In this study a statistical analysis of the collected thermal images of the ground surface along the expected leak location followed by a visual inspection of the thermo-grams was performed in order to locate the leak. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach the predicted leak location from the developed approach was compared with the real leak location. The results showed that the expected leak location was successfully identified with an accuracy of more than 95%.

Keywords: thermography, leakage, water pipelines, thermograms

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Authors: Maha Al-Soudani, Gilles Klysz, Jean-Paul Balayssac

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The aim of this paper is to use Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a non-destructive testing (NDT) method to increase its accuracy in recognizing the geometric reinforced concrete structures and in particular, the position of steel bars. This definition will help the managers to assess the state of their structures on the one hand vis-a-vis security constraints and secondly to quantify the need for maintenance and repair. Several configurations of acquisition and processing of the simulated signal were tested to propose and develop an appropriate imaging algorithm in the propagation medium to locate accurately the rebar. A subsequent experimental validation was used by testing the imaging algorithm on real reinforced concrete structures. The results indicate that, this algorithm is capable of estimating the reinforcing steel bar position to within (0-1) mm.

Keywords: GPR, NDT, Reinforced concrete structures, Rebar location.

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