Search results for: failure mode analysis
28533 Elastoplastic Modified Stillinger Weber-Potential Based Discretized Virtual Internal Bond and Its Application to the Dynamic Fracture Propagation
Authors: Dina Kon Mushid, Kabutakapua Kakanda, Dibu Dave Mbako
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The failure of material usually involves elastoplastic deformation and fracturing. Continuum mechanics can effectively deal with plastic deformation by using a yield function and the flow rule. At the same time, it has some limitations in dealing with the fracture problem since it is a theory based on the continuous field hypothesis. The lattice model can simulate the fracture problem very well, but it is inadequate for dealing with plastic deformation. Based on the discretized virtual internal bond model (DVIB), this paper proposes a lattice model that can account for plasticity. DVIB is a lattice method that considers material to comprise bond cells. Each bond cell may have any geometry with a finite number of bonds. The two-body or multi-body potential can characterize the strain energy of a bond cell. The two-body potential leads to the fixed Poisson ratio, while the multi-body potential can overcome the limitation of the fixed Poisson ratio. In the present paper, the modified Stillinger-Weber (SW), a multi-body potential, is employed to characterize the bond cell energy. The SW potential is composed of two parts. One part is the two-body potential that describes the interatomic interactions between particles. Another is the three-body potential that represents the bond angle interactions between particles. Because the SW interaction can represent the bond stretch and bond angle contribution, the SW potential-based DVIB (SW-DVIB) can represent the various Poisson ratios. To embed the plasticity in the SW-DVIB, the plasticity is considered in the two-body part of the SW potential. It is done by reducing the bond stiffness to a lower level once the bond reaches the yielding point. While before the bond reaches the yielding point, the bond is elastic. When the bond deformation exceeds the yielding point, the bond stiffness is softened to a lower value. When unloaded, irreversible deformation occurs. With the bond length increasing to a critical value, termed the failure bond length, the bond fails. The critical failure bond length is related to the cell size and the macro fracture energy. By this means, the fracture energy is conserved so that the cell size sensitivity problem is relieved to a great extent. In addition, the plasticity and the fracture are also unified at the bond level. To make the DVIB able to simulate different Poisson ratios, the three-body part of the SW potential is kept elasto-brittle. The bond angle can bear the moment before the bond angle increment is smaller than a critical value. By this method, the SW-DVIB can simulate the plastic deformation and the fracturing process of material with various Poisson ratios. The elastoplastic SW-DVIB is used to simulate the plastic deformation of a material, the plastic fracturing process, and the tunnel plastic deformation. It has been shown that the current SW-DVIB method is straightforward in simulating both elastoplastic deformation and plastic fracture.Keywords: lattice model, discretized virtual internal bond, elastoplastic deformation, fracture, modified stillinger-weber potential
Procedia PDF Downloads 9728532 The Presence of Anglicisms in Italian Fashion Magazines and Fashion Blogs
Authors: Vivian Orsi
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The present research investigates the lexicon of a fashion magazine, whose universe is very receptive to lexical loans, especially those from English, called Anglicisms. Specifically, we intend to discuss the presence of English items and expressions in the Vogue Italia fashion magazine. Besides, we aim to study the anglicisms used in an Italian fashion blog called The Blonde Salad. Within the discussion of fashion blogs and their contributions to scientific studies, we adopt the theories of Lexicology / Lexicography to define Anglicism (BIDERMAN, 2001), and the observation of its prestige in the Italian Language (ROGATO, 2008; BISETTO, 2003). According to the theoretical basis mentioned, we intend to make a brief analysis of the Anglicisms collected from posts of the first year of existence of such fashion blog, emphasizing also the keywords that have the role to encapsulate the content of the text, allowing the reader to retrieve information from the post of the blog. About the use of English in Italian magazines and blogs, we can affirm that it seems to represent sophistication, assuming the value of prerequisite to participate in the fashion centers of the world. Besides, we believe, as Barthes says (1990, p. 215), that “Fashion does not evolve, it changes: its lexicon is new each year, like that of a language which always keeps the same system but suddenly and regularly ‘changes’ the currency of its words”. Fashion is a mode of communication: it is present in man's interaction with the world, which means that such lexical universe is represented according to the particularities of each culture.Keywords: anglicism, lexicology, magazines, blogs, fashion
Procedia PDF Downloads 33128531 Failure to Replicate the Unconscious Thought Advantages
Authors: Vladimíra Čavojová, Eva Ballová Mikušková
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In this study we tried to replicate the unconscious thought advantage (UTA), which states that complex decisions are better handled by unconscious thinking. We designed an experiment in e-prime using similar material as the original study (choosing between four different apartments, each described by 12 attributes). A total of 73 participants (52 women (71.2%); 18 to 62 age: M=24.63; SD=8.7) took part in the experiment. We did not replicate the results suggested by UTT. However, from the present study we cannot conclude whether this was the case of flaws in the theory or flaws in our experiment and we discuss several ways in which the issue of UTA could be examined further.Keywords: decision making, unconscious thoughts, UTT, complex decisions
Procedia PDF Downloads 30628530 Diagnostics and Explanation of the Current Status of the 40- Year Railway Viaduct
Authors: Jakub Zembrzuski, Bartosz Sobczyk, Mikołaj MIśkiewicz
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Besides designing new constructions, engineers all over the world must face another problem – maintenance, repairs, and assessment of the technical condition of existing bridges. To solve more complex issues, it is necessary to be familiar with the theory of finite element method and to have access to the software that provides sufficient tools which to enable create of sometimes significantly advanced numerical models. The paper includes a brief assessment of the technical condition, a description of the in situ non-destructive testing carried out and the FEM models created for global and local analysis. In situ testing was performed using strain gauges and displacement sensors. Numerical models were created using various software and numerical modeling techniques. Particularly noteworthy is the method of modeling riveted joints of the crossbeam of the viaduct. It is a simplified method that consists of the use of only basic numerical tools such as beam and shell finite elements, constraints, and simplified boundary conditions (fixed support and symmetry). The results of the numerical analyses were presented and discussed. It is clearly explained why the structure did not fail, despite the fact that the weld of the deck plate completely failed. A further research problem that was solved was to determine the cause of the rapid increase in values on the stress diagram in the cross-section of the transverse section. The problems were solved using the solely mentioned, simplified method of modeling riveted joints, which demonstrates that it is possible to solve such problems without access to sophisticated software that enables to performance of the advanced nonlinear analysis. Moreover, the obtained results are of great importance in the field of assessing the operation of bridge structures with an orthotropic plate.Keywords: bridge, diagnostics, FEM simulations, failure, NDT, in situ testing
Procedia PDF Downloads 7128529 The Phatic Function and the Socializing Element of Personal Blogs
Authors: Emelia Noronha, Milind Malshe
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The phatic function of communication is a vital element of any conversation. This research paper looks into this function with respect to personal blogs maintained by Indian bloggers. This paper is a study into the phenomenon of phatic communication maintained by bloggers through their blogs. Based on a linguistic analysis of the posts of twenty eight Indian bloggers, writing in English, studied over a period of three years, the study indicates that though the blogging phenomenon is not conversational in the same manner as face-to-face communication, it does make ample provision for feedback that is conversational in nature. Ordinary day to day offline conversations use conventionalized phatic utterances; those on the social media are in a perpetual mode of innovation and experimentation in order to sustain contact with its readers. These innovative methods and means are the focus of this study. Though the personal blogger aims to chronicle his/her personal life through the blog, the socializing function is crucial to these bloggers. In comparison to the western personal blogs which focus on the presentation of the ‘bounded individual self’, we find Indian personal bloggers engage in the presentation of their ‘social selves’. These bloggers yearn to reach out to the readers on the internet and the phatic function serves to initiate, sustain and renew social ties on the blogosphere thereby consolidating the social network of readers and bloggers.Keywords: personal blogs, phatic, social-selves, blog readers
Procedia PDF Downloads 35928528 The Battle Against Corruption in Indonesia’s Municipalities
Authors: Edy Wahyu Susilo
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This research discusses a comparative analysis of various anti-corruption responses of three Indonesian City Governments (Jakarta, Surabaya, and Medan) and completes previous findings on the effectiveness of the city anti-corruption program. Some factors (transparency, accountability, leadership, law enforcement, and bureaucratic reform) have been chosen in this study to diagnose the main role in the success and the failure of anti-corruption programs in these cities. These factors diagnose the relationship between factors and their dominancy, which is then utilized to create the city’s strategic anti-corruption programs. Although this study found leadership had a dominant influence both in encouraging and discouraging the performance of city transformation drastically, however, it is not the only factor that determined the performance of the city in the fight against corruption. It needs other factors as an ideal balancing element to achieve an anti-corruption program, namely KPK’s intervention and public engagement. Based on the dominance factors found, this research then develops an appropriate strategy using a policy evaluation approach to create a real practical guide regardless of the existence of good or bad leadership in the city. This research is expected to be a useful reference for stakeholders, especially the government, as a blueprint to prevent corruption by considering several important steps and guidance in efforts to eradicate corruption in the city, especially in Indonesia.Keywords: intervention, KPK (corruption eradication commission), law enforcements, leadership, policy evaluation
Procedia PDF Downloads 9728527 Estimation of Dynamic Characteristics of a Middle Rise Steel Reinforced Concrete Building Using Long-Term
Authors: Fumiya Sugino, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu
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In earthquake resistant design of buildings, evaluation of vibration characteristics is important. In recent years, due to the increment of super high-rise buildings, the evaluation of response is important for not only the first mode but also higher modes. The knowledge of vibration characteristics in buildings is mostly limited to the first mode and the knowledge of higher modes is still insufficient. In this paper, using earthquake observation records of a SRC building by applying frequency filter to ARX model, characteristics of first and second modes were studied. First, we studied the change of the eigen frequency and the damping ratio during the 3.11 earthquake. The eigen frequency gradually decreases from the time of earthquake occurrence, and it is almost stable after about 150 seconds have passed. At this time, the decreasing rates of the 1st and 2nd eigen frequencies are both about 0.7. Although the damping ratio has more large error than the eigen frequency, both the 1st and 2nd damping ratio are 3 to 5%. Also, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd eigen frequency, and the regression line is y=3.17x. In the damping ratio, the regression line is y=0.90x. Therefore 1st and 2nd damping ratios are approximately the same degree. Next, we study the eigen frequency and damping ratio from 1998 after 3.11 earthquakes, the final year is 2014. In all the considered earthquakes, they are connected in order of occurrence respectively. The eigen frequency slowly declined from immediately after completion, and tend to stabilize after several years. Although it has declined greatly after the 3.11 earthquake. Both the decresing rate of the 1st and 2nd eigen frequencies until about 7 years later are about 0.8. For the damping ratio, both the 1st and 2nd are about 1 to 6%. After the 3.11 earthquake, the 1st increases by about 1% and the 2nd increases by less than 1%. For the eigen frequency, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd, and the regression line is y=3.17x. For the damping ratio, the regression line is y=1.01x. Therefore, it can be said that the 1st and 2nd damping ratio is approximately the same degree. Based on the above results, changes in eigen frequency and damping ratio are summarized as follows. In the long-term study of the eigen frequency, both the 1st and 2nd gradually declined from immediately after completion, and tended to stabilize after a few years. Further it declined after the 3.11 earthquake. In addition, there is a strong correlation between the 1st and 2nd, and the declining time and the decreasing rate are the same degree. In the long-term study of the damping ratio, both the 1st and 2nd are about 1 to 6%. After the 3.11 earthquake, the 1st increases by about 1%, the 2nd increases by less than 1%. Also, the 1st and 2nd are approximately the same degree.Keywords: eigenfrequency, damping ratio, ARX model, earthquake observation records
Procedia PDF Downloads 21528526 Improving Taint Analysis of Android Applications Using Finite State Machines
Authors: Assad Maalouf, Lunjin Lu, James Lynott
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We present a taint analysis that can automatically detect when string operations result in a string that is free of taints, where all the tainted patterns have been removed. This is an improvement on the conservative behavior of previous taint analyzers, where a string operation on a tainted string always leads to a tainted string unless the operation is manually marked as a sanitizer. The taint analysis is built on top of a string analysis that uses finite state automata to approximate the sets of values that string variables can take during the execution of a program. The proposed approach has been implemented as an extension of FlowDroid and experimental results show that the resulting taint analyzer is much more precise than the original FlowDroid.Keywords: android, static analysis, string analysis, taint analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 17728525 Thermal Effect on Wave Interaction in Composite Structures
Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry
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There exist a wide range of failure modes in composite structures due to the increased usage of the structures especially in aerospace industry. Moreover, temperature dependent wave response of composite and layered structures have been continuously studied, though still limited, in the last decade mainly due to the broad operating temperature range of aerospace structures. A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics and interaction phenomenon in composite structures can be predicted. Initially, the temperature dependent mechanical properties of the panel in the range of -100 ◦C to 150 ◦C are measured experimentally using the Thermal Mechanical Analysis (TMA). Temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics of each waveguide of the structural system, which is discretized as a system of a number of waveguides coupled by a coupling element, is calculated using the WFE approach. The wave scattering properties, as a function of temperature, is determined by coupling the WFE wave characteristics models of the waveguides with the full FE modelling of the coupling element on which defect is included. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling element.Keywords: finite element, temperature dependency, wave dispersion characteristics, wave finite element, wave scattering properties
Procedia PDF Downloads 30728524 Basic Business-Forces behind the Surviving and Sustainable Organizations: The Case of Medium Scale Contractors in South Africa
Authors: Iruka C. Anugwo, Winston M. Shakantu
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The objective of this study is to uncover the basic business-forces that necessitated the survival and sustainable performance of the medium scale contractors in the South African construction market. This study is essential as it set to contribute towards long-term strategic solutions for combating the incessant failure of start-ups construction organizations within South African. The study used a qualitative research methodology; as the most appropriate approach to elicit and understand, and uncover the phenomena that are basic business-forces for the active contractors in the market. The study also adopted a phenomenological study approach; and in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 medium scale contractors in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, between months of August to October 2015. This allowed for an in-depth understanding of the critical and basic business-forces that influenced their survival and performance beyond the first five years of business operation. Findings of the study showed that for potential contractors (startups), to survival in the competitive business environment such as construction industry, they must possess the basic business-forces. These forces are educational knowledge in construction and business management related disciplines, adequate industrial experiences, competencies and capabilities to delivery excellent services and products as well as embracing the spirit of entrepreneurship. Convincingly, it can be concluded that the strategic approach to minimize the endless failure of startups construction businesses; the potential construction contractors must endeavoring to access and acquire the basic educationally knowledge, training and qualification; need to acquire industrial experiences in collaboration with required competencies, capabilities and entrepreneurship acumen. Without these basic business-forces as been discovered in this study, the majority of the contractors gaining entrance in the market will find it difficult to develop and grow a competitive and sustainable construction organization in South Africa.Keywords: basic business-forces, medium scale contractors, South Africa, sustainable organisations
Procedia PDF Downloads 29028523 Effect of Non-Regulated pH on the Dynamics of Dark Fermentative Biohydrogen Production with Suspended and Immobilized Cell Culture
Authors: Joelle Penniston, E. B. Gueguim-Kana
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Biohydrogen has been identified as a promising alternative to the use of non-renewable fossil reserves, owing to its sustainability and non-polluting nature. pH is considered as a key parameter in fermentative biohydrogen production processes, due to its effect on the hydrogenase activity, metabolic activity as well as substrate hydrolysis. The present study assesses the influence of regulating pH on dark fermentative biohydrogen production. Four experimental hydrogen production schemes were evaluated. Two were implemented using suspended cells under regulated pH growth conditions (Sus_R) and suspended and non-regulated pH (Sus_N). The two others regimes consisted of alginate immobilized cells under pH regulated growth conditions (Imm_R) and immobilized and non-pH regulated conditions (Imm_N). All experiments were carried out at 37.5°C with glucose as sole source of carbon. Sus_R showed a lag time of 5 hours and a peak hydrogen fraction of 36% and a glucose degradation of 37%, compared to Sus_N which showed a peak hydrogen fraction of 44% and complete glucose degradation. Both suspended culture systems showed a higher peak biohydrogen fraction compared to the immobilized cell system. Imm_R experiments showed a lag phase of 8 hours, a peak biohydrogen fraction of 35%, while Imm_N showed a lag phase of 5 hours, a peak biohydrogen fraction of 22%. 100% glucose degradation was observed in both pH regulated and non-regulated processes. This study showed that biohydrogen production in batch mode with suspended cells in a non-regulated pH environment results in a partial degradation of substrate, with lower yield. This scheme has been the culture mode of choice for most reported studies in biohydrogen research. The relatively lower slope in pH trend of the non-regulated pH experiment with immobilized cells (Imm_N) compared to Sus_N revealed that that immobilized systems have a better buffering capacity compared to suspended systems, which allows for the extended production of biohydrogen even under non-regulated pH conditions. However, alginate immobilized cultures in flask systems showed some drawbacks associated to high rate of gas production that leads to increased buoyancy of the immobilization beads. This ultimately impedes the release of gas out of the flask.Keywords: biohydrogen, sustainability, suspended, immobilized
Procedia PDF Downloads 34028522 Structural and Functional Correlates of Reaction Time Variability in a Large Sample of Healthy Adolescents and Adolescents with ADHD Symptoms
Authors: Laura O’Halloran, Zhipeng Cao, Clare M. Kelly, Hugh Garavan, Robert Whelan
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Reaction time (RT) variability on cognitive tasks provides the index of the efficiency of executive control processes (e.g. attention and inhibitory control) and is considered to be a hallmark of clinical disorders, such as attention-deficit disorder (ADHD). Increased RT variability is associated with structural and functional brain differences in children and adults with various clinical disorders, as well as poorer task performance accuracy. Furthermore, the strength of functional connectivity across various brain networks, such as the negative relationship between the task-negative default mode network and task-positive attentional networks, has been found to reflect differences in RT variability. Although RT variability may provide an index of attentional efficiency, as well as being a useful indicator of neurological impairment, the brain substrates associated with RT variability remain relatively poorly defined, particularly in a healthy sample. Method: Firstly, we used the intra-individual coefficient of variation (ICV) as an index of RT variability from “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. We then examined the functional and structural neural correlates of ICV in a large sample of 14-year old healthy adolescents (n=1719). Of these, a subset had elevated symptoms of ADHD (n=80) and was compared to a matched non-symptomatic control group (n=80). The relationship between brain activity during successful and unsuccessful inhibitions and gray matter volume were compared with the ICV. A mediation analysis was conducted to examine if specific brain regions mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and ICV. Lastly, we looked at functional connectivity across various brain networks and quantified both positive and negative correlations during “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. Results: The brain data revealed that higher ICV was associated with increased structural and functional brain activation in the precentral gyrus in the whole sample and in adolescents with ADHD symptoms. Lower ICV was associated with lower activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus in the whole sample and in the control group. Furthermore, our results indicated that activation in the precentral gyrus (Broadman Area 4) mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and behavioural ICV. Conclusion: This is the first study first to investigate the functional and structural correlates of ICV collectively in a large adolescent sample. Our findings demonstrate a concurrent increase in brain structure and function within task-active prefrontal networks as a function of increased RT variability. Furthermore, structural and functional brain activation patterns in the ACC, and medial frontal gyrus plays a role-optimizing top-down control in order to maintain task performance. Our results also evidenced clear differences in brain morphometry between adolescents with symptoms of ADHD but without clinical diagnosis and typically developing controls. Our findings shed light on specific functional and structural brain regions that are implicated in ICV and yield insights into effective cognitive control in healthy individuals and in clinical groups.Keywords: ADHD, fMRI, reaction-time variability, default mode, functional connectivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 25528521 The Significance of Urban Space in Death Trilogy of Alejandro González Iñárritu
Authors: Marta Kaprzyk
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The cinema of Alejandro González Iñárritu hasn’t been subjected to a lot of detailed analysis yet, what makes it an exceptionally interesting research material. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the significance of urban space in three films of this Mexican director, that forms Death Trilogy: ‘Amores Perros’ (2000), ‘21 Grams’ (2003) and ‘Babel’ (2006). The fact that in the aforementioned movies the urban space itself becomes an additional protagonist with its own identity, psychology and the ability to transform and affect other characters, in itself warrants for independent research and analysis. Independently, such mode of presenting urban space has another function; it enables the director to complement the rest of characters. The basis for methodology of this description of cinematographic space is to treat its visual layer as a point of departure for a detailed analysis. At the same time, the analysis itself will be supported by recognised academic theories concerning special issues, which are transformed here into essential tools necessary to describe the world (mise-en-scène) created by González Iñárritu. In ‘Amores perros’ the Mexico City serves as a scenery – a place full of contradictions- in the movie depicted as a modern conglomerate and an urban jungle, as well as a labyrinth of poverty and violence. In this work stylistic tropes can be found in an intertextual dialogue of the director with photographies of Nan Goldin and Mary Ellen Mark. The story recounted in ‘21 Grams’, the most tragic piece in the trilogy, is characterised by almost hyperrealistic sadism. It takes place in Memphis, which on the screen turns into an impersonal formation full of heterotopias described by Michel Foucault and non-places, as defined by Marc Augé in his essay. By contrast, the main urban space in ‘Babel’ is Tokio, which seems to perfectly correspond with the image of places discussed by Juhani Pallasmaa in his works concerning the reception of the architecture by ‘pathological senses’ in the modern (or, even more adequately, postmodern) world. It’s portrayed as a city full of buildings that look so surreal, that they seem to be completely unsuitable for the humans to move between them. Ultimately, the aim of this paper is to demonstrate the coherence of the manner in which González Iñárritu designs urban spaces in his Death Trilogy. In particular, the author attempts to examine the imperative role of the cities that form three specific microcosms in which the protagonists of the Mexican director live their overwhelming tragedies.Keywords: cinematographic space, Death Trilogy, film Studies, González Iñárritu Alejandro, urban space
Procedia PDF Downloads 33228520 Prevalence and Correlates of Complementary and Alternative Medicine Use among Diabetic Patients in Lebanon: A Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Farah Naja, Mohamad Alameddine
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Background: The difficulty of compliance to therapeutic and lifestyle management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) encourages patients to use complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapies. Little is known about the prevalence and mode of CAM use among diabetics in the Eastern Mediterranean Region in general and Lebanon in particular. Objective: To assess the prevalence and modes of CAM use among patients with T2DM residing in Beirut, Lebanon. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of T2DM patients was conducted on patients recruited from two major referral centers - a public hospital and a private academic medical center in Beirut. In a face-to-face interview, participants completed a survey questionnaire comprised of three sections: socio-demographic, diabetes characteristics and types and modes of CAM use. Descriptive statistics, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were utilized to assess the prevalence, mode and correlates of CAM use in the study population. The main outcome in this study (CAM use) was defined as using CAM at least once since diagnosis with T2DM. Results: A total of 333 T2DM patients completed the survey (response rate: 94.6%). Prevalence of CAM use in the study population was 38%, 95% CI (33.1-43.5). After adjustment, CAM use was significantly associated with a “married” status, a longer duration of T2DM, the presence of disease complications, and a positive family history of the disease. Folk foods and herbs were the most commonly used CAM followed by natural health products. One in five patients used CAM as an alternative to conventional treatment. Only 7 % of CAM users disclosed the CAM use to their treating physician. Health care practitioners were the least cited (7%) as influencing the choice of CAM among users. Conclusion: The use of CAM therapies among T2DM patients in Lebanon is prevalent. Decision makers and care providers must fully understand the potential risks and benefits of CAM therapies to appropriately advise their patients. Attention must be dedicated to educating T2DM patients on the importance of disclosing CAM use to their physicians especially patients with a family history of diabetes, and those using conventional therapy for a long time.Keywords: nutritional supplements, type 2 diabetes mellitus, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), conventional therapy
Procedia PDF Downloads 34928519 The Challenges of Innovation Leadership in the Public Sector
Authors: Shaker A. Aladwan
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This paper aims to explore the Barriers to innovation leadership in Jordanian public sector organizations. Qualitative approach was adopted, and content analysis was used to analyze the 18 assessment reports which are extracted from the public innovation award in Jordan, then, 20 semi-structured interviews were conducted with the key persons who are involved with innovation initiatives in the public sector organizations in Jordan. Several Barriersthat face the innovation leadership in the Jordanian public sector organizations. Managerially, the challenges include lack of innovation vision, implementation lack of innovation core values, lack of strategic planning for innovation, bad bureaucracy culture, and excessive centralization. Technically, the challenges include lack of task assignment for employees, lack of resources, lack of innovative training programs, lack of knowledge sharing, and the failure of governments to formulate policies and regulations. most of the studies focused on innovation in the non-public sector organizations, and most of them were conducted in the American and Western countries, which are different in terms of culture, kinds of innovation, barriers, and drivers. Thus, this paper provides new insights into barriers to innovation leadership in the public sector and in a new research context. This paper also provides a theoretical contribution by diagnosing the barriers facing innovation within the context of public administration in developing countries.Keywords: innovation, excellence award, challenges, public sector, jordan
Procedia PDF Downloads 12428518 Destined Failure of Interactions between Israeli-Arabs and Jews - An Analysis of Creative Works’ Presentation of Issues from the Israeli Side
Authors: Tianqi Yin
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Following the establishment of the state of Israel, how to harmonize the relationship between Palestinians and Jews in Israel has always been an intractable problem. As the number of Palestinian Arabs in Israel has increased to over two million, the issue has become more severe. Due to a variety of factors, Israeli Palestinians and Israeli Jews often find it hard to interact with each other, let alone form a relationship. Multiple authors and directors have produced cultural works to touch on the issue, exposing the reasons for the irreconcilable relation between the two ethnic groups. This paper analyzes the representation scenes of the Palestinian-Jewish relationship in three prominent cultural works, each from a distinct perspective, to examine the intrinsic challenges from the Israeli side that curb the two ethnicities from interacting successfully. The first scene is from the Jewish perspective in Amos Oz’s memoir A Tale of Love and Darkness, in which young Oz, a Jewish boy, attempts to interact with Aisha, a young Israeli-Arab girl, but eventually failed because of an accident. The second scene is from a short Israeli film Bus Station which, from an outsider perspective, depicted a brief encounter between an Arab woman and a Jewish woman in Jerusalem. The third scene is the initially successful yet eventually failed relationship between Eyad, a Palestinian boy, and Naomi, a Jewish girl, in an elite Israeli high school from the 2014 film A Borrowed Identity, which is depicted through Eyad’s Arab perspective. Through the analysis of these three narratives, this paper argues that the burden of national responsibility, family influences, and Israeli government’s discriminatory policies are the three main factors on the Jewish side, in ascender order of importance, that make Arab-Jewish interaction hard in Israel.Keywords: arab-Jewish interaction, ethnographic conflicts, israel, Jewish narrative, narrative styles
Procedia PDF Downloads 9628517 A Systematic Review on Challenges in Big Data Environment
Authors: Rimmy Yadav, Anmol Preet Kaur
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Big Data has demonstrated the vast potential in streamlining, deciding, spotting business drifts in different fields, for example, producing, fund, Information Technology. This paper gives a multi-disciplinary diagram of the research issues in enormous information and its procedures, instruments, and system identified with the privacy, data storage management, network and energy utilization, adaptation to non-critical failure and information representations. Other than this, result difficulties and openings accessible in this Big Data platform have made.Keywords: big data, privacy, data management, network and energy consumption
Procedia PDF Downloads 31128516 Estimating Affected Croplands and Potential Crop Yield Loss of an Individual Farmer Due to Floods
Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf
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Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.Keywords: crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges
Procedia PDF Downloads 25528515 The Documentary Analysis of Meta-Analysis Research in Violence of Media
Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed
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The part of “future direction” in the findings of meta-analysis could provide the great direction to conduct the future studies. This study, “The Documentary Analysis of Meta-Analysis Research in Violence of Media” would conclude “future directions” out of 10 meta-analysis papers. The purposes of this research are to find an appropriate research design or an appropriate methodology for the future research related to the topic, “violence of media”. Further research needs to explore by longitudinal and experimental design, and also needs to have a careful consideration about age effects, time spent effects, enjoyment effects, and ordinary lifestyle of each media consumer.Keywords: aggressive, future direction, meta-analysis, media, violence
Procedia PDF Downloads 40728514 Achieving Product Robustness through Variation Simulation: An Industrial Case Study
Authors: Narendra Akhadkar, Philippe Delcambre
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In power protection and control products, assembly process variations due to the individual parts manufactured from single or multi-cavity tooling is a major problem. The dimensional and geometrical variations on the individual parts, in the form of manufacturing tolerances and assembly tolerances, are sources of clearance in the kinematic joints, polarization effect in the joints, and tolerance stack-up. All these variations adversely affect the quality of product, functionality, cost, and time-to-market. Variation simulation analysis may be used in the early product design stage to predict such uncertainties. Usually, variations exist in both manufacturing processes and materials. In the tolerance analysis, the effect of the dimensional and geometrical variations of the individual parts on the functional characteristics (conditions) of the final assembled products are studied. A functional characteristic of the product may be affected by a set of interrelated dimensions (functional parameters) that usually form a geometrical closure in a 3D chain. In power protection and control products, the prerequisite is: when a fault occurs in the electrical network, the product must respond quickly to react and break the circuit to clear the fault. Usually, the response time is in milliseconds. Any failure in clearing the fault may result in severe damage to the equipment or network, and human safety is at stake. In this article, we have investigated two important functional characteristics that are associated with the robust performance of the product. It is demonstrated that the experimental data obtained at the Schneider Electric Laboratory prove the very good prediction capabilities of the variation simulation performed using CETOL (tolerance analysis software) in an industrial context. Especially, this study allows design engineers to better understand the critical parts in the product that needs to be manufactured with good, capable tolerances. On the contrary, some parts are not critical for the functional characteristics (conditions) of the product and may lead to some reduction of the manufacturing cost, ensuring robust performance. The capable tolerancing is one of the most important aspects in product and manufacturing process design. In the case of miniature circuit breaker (MCB), the product's quality and its robustness are mainly impacted by two aspects: (1) allocation of design tolerances between the components of a mechanical assembly and (2) manufacturing tolerances in the intermediate machining steps of component fabrication.Keywords: geometrical variation, product robustness, tolerance analysis, variation simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 16328513 Implications of Social Rights Adjudication on the Separation of Powers Doctrine: Colombian Case
Authors: Mariam Begadze
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Separation of Powers (SOP) has often been the most frequently posed objection against the judicial enforcement of socio-economic rights. Although a lot has been written to refute those, very rarely has it been assessed what effect the current practice of social rights adjudication has had on the construction of SOP doctrine in specific jurisdictions. Colombia is an appropriate case-study on this question. The notion of collaborative SOP in the 1991 Constitution has affected the court’s conception of its role. On the other hand, the trends in the jurisprudence have further shaped the collaborative notion of SOP. Other institutional characteristics of the Colombian constitutional law have played its share role as well. Tutela action, particularly flexible and fast judicial action for individuals has placed the judiciary in a more confrontational relation vis-à-vis the political branches. Later interventions through abstract review of austerity measures further contributed to that development. Logically, the court’s activism in this sphere has attracted attacks from political branches, which have turned out to be unsuccessful precisely due to court’s outreach to the middle-class, whose direct reliance on the court has turned into its direct democratic legitimacy. Only later have the structural judgments attempted to revive the collaborative notion behind SOP doctrine. However, the court-supervised monitoring process of implementation has itself manifested fluctuations in the mode of collaboration, moving into more managerial supervision recently. This is not surprising considering the highly dysfunctional political system in Colombia, where distrust seems to be the default starting point in the interaction of the branches. The paper aims to answer the question, what the appropriate judicial tools are to realize the collaborative notion of SOP in a context where the court has to strike a balance between the strong executive and the weak and largely dysfunctional legislative branch. If the recurrent abuse lies in the indifference and inaction of legislative branches to engage with political issues seriously, what are the tools in the court’s hands to activate the political process? The answer to this question partly lies in the court’s other strand of jurisprudence, in which it combines substantive objections with procedural ones concerning the operation of the legislative branch. The primary example is the decision on value-added tax on basic goods, in which the court invalidated the law based on the absence of sufficient deliberation in Congress on the question of the bills’ implications on the equity and progressiveness of the entire taxing system. The decision led to Congressional rejection of an identical bill based on the arguments put forward by the court. The case perhaps is the best illustration of the collaborative notion of SOP, in which the court refrains from categorical pronouncements, while does its bit for activating political process. This also legitimizes the court’s activism based on its role to counter the most perilous abuse in the Colombian context – failure of the political system to seriously engage with serious political questions.Keywords: Colombian constitutional court, judicial review, separation of powers, social rights
Procedia PDF Downloads 10328512 Aberrant Genome‐Wide DNA Methylation Profiles of Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells from Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19
Authors: Inam Ridha, Christine L. Kuryla, Madhuranga Thilakasiri Madugoda Ralalage Don, Norman J. Kleiman, Yunro Chung, Jin Park, Vel Murugan, Joshua LaBaer
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To date, more than 275 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and the rapid spread of the omicron variant suggests many millions more will soon become infected. Many infections are asymptomatic, while others result in mild to moderate illness. Unfortunately, some infected individuals exhibit more serious symptoms including respiratory distress, thrombosis, cardiovascular disease, multi-organ failure, cognitive difficulties, and, in roughly 2% of cases, death. Studies indicate other coronaviruses can alter the host cell's epigenetic profile and lead to alterations in the immune response. To better understand the mechanism(s) by which SARS-CoV-2 infection causes serious illness, DNA methylation profiles in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 90 hospitalized severely ill COVID-19 patients were compared to profiles from uninfected control subjects. Exploratory epigenome-wide DNA methylation analyses were performed using multiplexed methylated DNA immunoprecipitation (MeDIP) followed by pathway enrichment analysis. The findings demonstrated significant DNA methylation changes in infected individuals as compared to uninfected controls. Pathway analysis indicated that apoptosis, cell cycle control, Toll-like receptors (TLR), cytokine interactions, and T cell differentiation were among the most affected metabolic processes. In addition, changes in specific gene methylation were compared to SARS-CoV-2 induced changes in RNA expression using published RNA-seq data from 3 patients with severe COVID-19. These findings demonstrate significant correlations between differentially methylated and differentially expressed genes in a number of critical pathways.Keywords: COVID19, epigenetics, DNA mathylation, viral infection
Procedia PDF Downloads 17828511 Data Transformations in Data Envelopment Analysis
Authors: Mansour Mohammadpour
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Data transformation refers to the modification of any point in a data set by a mathematical function. When applying transformations, the measurement scale of the data is modified. Data transformations are commonly employed to turn data into the appropriate form, which can serve various functions in the quantitative analysis of the data. This study addresses the investigation of the use of data transformations in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Although data transformations are important options for analysis, they do fundamentally alter the nature of the variable, making the interpretation of the results somewhat more complex.Keywords: data transformation, data envelopment analysis, undesirable data, negative data
Procedia PDF Downloads 1928510 Analysis of Determinants of Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises in Kwara State, Nigeria
Authors: Hussaini Tunde Subairu
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Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) sectors serve as catalyst for employment generation, national growth, poverty reduction and economic development in developing and developed countries. However, in Nigeria despite copious and plethora of government policies and stimulus schemes directed at SMEs, the sector is still characterized by high rate of failure and discontinuities. This study therefore investigated owners/managers profile, firms characteristics and external factors as possible determinants of SMEs growth from selected SMEs in Kwara State. Primary data were sourced from 200 SMEs respondents registered with the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASMES) in Kwara State Central Senatorial District. Multiple Regressions Analysis (MRA) was used to analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables, and pair wise correlation was employed to examine the relationship among independent variables. The Analysis of Variable (ANOVA) was employed to indicate the overall significant of the model The findings revealed that Analysis of variance (ANOVA) put the value of F-statistics at 420.45 and p-value at 0.000 was significant. The values of R2 and Adjusted R2 of 0.9643 and 0.9620 respectively suggested that 96 percent of variations in employment growth were explained by the explanatory variables. The level of technical and managerial education has t- value of 24.14 and p-value of 0.001, length of managers/owners experience in similar trade with t- value of 21.37 and p-value of 0.001, age of managers/owners with t- value of 42.98 and p-value of 0.001, firm age with t- value of 25.91 and p-value of 0.001, numbers of firms in a cluster with t- value of 7.20 and p-value of 0.001, access to formal finance with t-value of 5.56 and p-value of 0.001, firm technology innovation with t- value of 25.32 and p-value of 0.01, institutional support with t- value of 18.89 and p-value of 0.01, globalization with t- value of 9.78 and p-value of 0.01, and infrastructure with t-value of 10.75 and p-value of 0.01. The result also indicated that initial size has t-value of -1.71 and p-value of 0.090 which is consistent with Gibrat’s Law. The study concluded that owners/managers profile, firm specific characteristics and external factors substantially influenced employment growths of SMEs in the study area. Therefore, policy implication should enhance human capital development of SMEs owners/managers, and strengthen fiscal policy thrust through imposition on tariff regime to minimize effect of globalization. Governments at all level must support SMEs growth radically and enhance institutional support for SMEs growth and radically and significantly upgrading key infrastructure as rail/roads, rail, telecommunications, water and power.Keywords: external factors, firm specific characteristics, owners / manager profile, small and medium enterprises
Procedia PDF Downloads 24228509 Numerical Simulation and Experimental Verification of Mechanical Displacements in Piezoelectric Transformer
Authors: F. Boukazouha, G. Poulin-Vittrant, M. Rguiti, M. Lethiecq
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Since its invention, by virtue of its remarkable features, the piezoelectric transformer (PT) has drawn the attention of the scientific community. In past years, it has been extensively studied and its performances have been continuously improved. Nowadays, such devices are designed in more and more sophisticated architectures with associated models describing their behavior quite accurately. However, the different studies usually carried out on such devices mainly focus on their electrical characteristics induced by direct piezoelectric effects such as voltage gain, efficiency or supplied power. In this work, we are particularly interested in the characterization of mechanical displacements induced by the inverse piezoelectric effect in a PT in vibration. For this purpose, a detailed three-dimensional finite element analysis is proposed to examine the mechanical behavior of a Rosen-type transformer made of a single bar of soft PZT (P191) and with dimensions 22mm×2.35mm×2.5mm. At the first three modes of vibration, output voltage and mechanical displacements ux, uy and uz along the length, the width and the thickness, respectively, are calculated. The amplitude of displacements varies in a range from a few nanometers to a few hundred nanometers. The validity of the simulations was successfully confirmed by experiments carried out on a prototype using a laser interferometer. A good match was observed between simulation and experimental results, especially for us at the second mode. Such 3D simulations thus appear as a helpful tool for a better understanding of mechanical phenomena in Rosen-type PT.Keywords: piezoelectricity, gain, dispalcement, simulations
Procedia PDF Downloads 2828508 Analytical Evaluation on Hysteresis Performance of Circular Shear Panel Damper
Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jaehyouk Choi
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The idea of adding metallic energy dissipaters to a structure to absorb a large part of the seismic energy began four decades ago. There are several types of metal-based devices conceived as dampers for the seismic energy absorber whereby damages to the major structural components could be minimized for both new and existing structures. This paper aimed to develop and evaluate structural performance of both stiffened and non stiffened circular shear panel damper for passive seismic energy protection by inelastic deformation. Structural evaluation was done using commercially available nonlinear FE simulation program. Diameter-to-thickness ratio is employed as main parameter to investigate the hysteresis performance of stiffened and unstiffened circular shear panel. Depending on these parameters three different buckling mode and hysteretic behavior was found: yielding prior to buckling without strength degradation, yielding prior to buckling with strength degradation and yielding with buckling and strength degradation which forms pinching at initial displacement. Hence, the hysteresis behavior is identified, specimens which deform without strength degradation so it will be used as passive energy dissipating device in civil engineering structures.Keywords: circular shear panel damper, FE analysis, hysteretic behavior, large deformation
Procedia PDF Downloads 38528507 Sand Production Modelled with Darcy Fluid Flow Using Discrete Element Method
Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh
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In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.Keywords: discrete element method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure
Procedia PDF Downloads 31928506 Chaos in a Stadium-Shaped 2-D Quantum Dot
Authors: Roger Yu
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A numerical scheme has been developed to solve wave equations for chaotic systems such as stadium-shaped cavity. The same numerical method can also be used for finding wave properties of rectangle cavities with randomly placed obstacles. About 30k eigenvalues have been obtained accurately on a normal circumstance. For comparison, we also initiated an experimental study which determines both eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions of a stadium-shaped cavity using pulse and normal mode analyzing techniques. The acoustic cavity was made adjustable so that the transition from nonchaotic (circle) to chaotic (stadium) waves can be investigated.Keywords: quantum dot, chaos, numerical method, eigenvalues
Procedia PDF Downloads 11628505 Therapeutic Potential of GSTM2-2 C-Terminal Domain and Its Mutants, F157A and Y160A on the Treatment of Cardiac Arrhythmias: Effect on Ca2+ Transients in Neonatal Ventricular Cardiomyocytes
Authors: R. P. Hewawasam, A. F. Dulhunty
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The ryanodine receptor (RyR) is an intracellular ion channel that releases Ca2+ from the sarcoplasmic reticulum and is essential for the excitation-contraction coupling and contraction in striated muscle. Human muscle specific glutathione transferase M2-2 (GSTM2-2) is a highly specific inhibitor of cardiac ryanodine receptor (RyR2) activity. Single channel-lipid bilayer studies and Ca2+ release assays performed using the C-terminal half of the GSTM2-2 and its mutants F157A and Y160A confirmed the ability of the C terminal domain of GSTM2-2 to specifically inhibit the cardiac ryanodine receptor activity. Objective of the present study is to determine the effect of C terminal domain of GSTM2-2 (GSTM2-2C) and the mutants, F157A and Y160A on the Ca2+ transients of neonatal ventricular cardiomyocytes. Primary cardiomyocytes were cultured from neonatal rats. They were treated with GSTM2-2C and the two mutants F157A and Y160A at 15µM and incubated for 2 hours. Then the cells were led with Fluo-4AM, fluorescent Ca2+ indicator, and the field stimulated (1 Hz, 3V and 2ms) cells were excited using the 488 nm argon laser. Contractility of the cells were measured and the Ca2+ transients in the stained cells were imaged using Leica SP5 confocal microscope. Peak amplitude of the Ca2+ transient, rise time and decay time from the peak were measured for each transient. In contrast to GSTM2C which significantly reduced the % shortening (42.8%) in the field stimulated cells, F157A and Y160A failed to reduce the % shortening.Analysis revealed that the average amplitude of the Ca2+ transient was significantly reduced (P<0.001) in cells treated with the wild type GSTM2-2C compared to that of untreated cells. Cells treated with the mutants F157A and Y160A didn’t change the Ca2+ transient significantly compared to the control. A significant increase in the rise time (P< 0.001) and a significant reduction in the decay time (P< 0.001) were observed in cardiomyocytes treated with GSTM2-2C compared to the control but not with F157A and Y160A. These results are consistent with the observation that GSTM2-2C reduced the Ca2+ release from the cardiac SR significantly whereas the mutants, F157A and Y160A didn’t show any effect compared to the control. GSTM2-2C has an isoform-specific effect on the cardiac ryanodine receptor activity and also it inhibits RyR2 channel activity only during diastole. Selective inhibition of RyR2 by GSTM2-2C has significant clinical potential in the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias and heart failure. Since GSTM2-2C-terminal construct has no GST enzyme activity, its introduction to the cardiomyocyte would not exert any unwanted side effects that may alter its enzymatic action. The present study further confirms that GSTM2-2C is capable of decreasing the Ca2+ release from the cardiac SR during diastole. These results raise the future possibility of using GSTM2-2C as a template for therapeutics that can depress RyR2 function when the channel is hyperactive in cardiac arrhythmias and heart failure.Keywords: arrhythmia, cardiac muscle, cardiac ryanodine receptor, GSTM2-2
Procedia PDF Downloads 28328504 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant
Authors: Ian McCulloh, Andrew Placona, Darren Stewart, Daniel Gause, Kevin Kiernan, Morgan Stuart, Christopher Zinner, Laura Cartwright
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An estimated 22-25% of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. As many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.Keywords: decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant
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