Search results for: churn prediction modeling

Authors: Zaki Abiza, Miguel Chavez, David M. Holman, Ruddy Brionnaud

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In this paper, the prediction of the aerodynamic behavior of the flow around a Finned Projectile will be validated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution, XFlow, based on the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM). XFlow is an innovative CFD software developed by Next Limit Dynamics. It is based on a state-of-the-art Lattice-Boltzmann Method which uses a proprietary particle-based kinetic solver and a LES turbulent model coupled with the generalized law of the wall (WMLES). The Lattice-Boltzmann method discretizes the continuous Boltzmann equation, a transport equation for the particle probability distribution function. From the Boltzmann transport equation, and by means of the Chapman-Enskog expansion, the compressible Navier-Stokes equations can be recovered. However to simulate compressible flows, this method has a Mach number limitation because of the lattice discretization. Thanks to this flexible particle-based approach the traditional meshing process is avoided, the discretization stage is strongly accelerated reducing engineering costs, and computations on complex geometries are affordable in a straightforward way. The projectile that will be used in this work is the Army-Navy Basic Finned Missile (ANF) with a caliber of 0.03 m. The analysis will consist in varying the Mach number from M=0.5 comparing the axial force coefficient, normal force slope coefficient and the pitch moment slope coefficient of the Finned Projectile obtained by XFlow with the experimental data. The slope coefficients will be obtained using finite difference techniques in the linear range of the polar curve. The aim of such an analysis is to find out the limiting Mach number value starting from which the effects of high fluid compressibility (related to transonic flow regime) lead the XFlow simulations to differ from the experimental results. This will allow identifying the critical Mach number which limits the validity of the isothermal formulation of XFlow and beyond which a fully compressible solver implementing a coupled momentum-energy equations would be required.

Keywords: CFD, computational fluid dynamics, drag, finned projectile, lattice-boltzmann method, LBM, lift, mach, pitch

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Authors: Juraj Londák, Radoslav Vargic, Pavol Podhradský

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In this contribution, we focus on the technical and economic aspects of using hybrid storage in microgrids for peak shaving. We perform a feasibility analysis of hybrid storage consisting of conventional supercapacitors and chemical batteries. We use multiple real-life consumption profiles from various industry-oriented microgrids. The primary purpose is to construct a digital twin model for reserved capacity simulation and prediction. The main objective is to find the equilibrium between technical innovations, acquisition costs and energy cost savings

Keywords: microgrid, peak shaving, energy storage, digital twin

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Maxime Logez, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

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In view of the very strong degradation of aquatic ecosystems, it is urgent to set up monitoring systems that are best able to report on the effects of the stresses they undergo. This is particularly true in developing countries, where specific and relevant quality standards and funding for monitoring programs are lacking. The objective of this study was to make a relevant and objective choice of physicochemical parameters informative of the main stressors occurring on African lakes and to identify their alteration thresholds. Based on statistical analyses of the relationship between several driving forces and the physicochemical parameters of the Nokoué lagoon, relevant Physico-chemical parameters were selected for its monitoring. An innovative method based on Bayesian statistical modeling was used. Eleven Physico-chemical parameters were selected for their response to at least one stressor and their threshold quality standards were also established: Total Phosphorus (<4.5mg/L), Orthophosphates (<0.2mg/L), Nitrates (<0.5 mg/L), TKN (<1.85 mg/L), Dry Organic Matter (<5 mg/L), Dissolved Oxygen (>4 mg/L), BOD (<11.6 mg/L), Salinity (7.6 .), Water Temperature (<28.7 °C), pH (>6.2), and Transparency (>0.9 m). According to the System for the Evaluation of Coastal Water Quality, these thresholds correspond to” good to medium” suitability classes, except for total phosphorus. One of the original features of this study is the use of the bounds of the credibility interval of the fixed-effect coefficients as local weathering standards for the characterization of the Physico-chemical status of this anthropized African ecosystem.

Keywords: driving forces, alteration thresholds, acadjas, monitoring, modeling, human activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Ahmed I. Raheem

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In this thesis, stratified and stratified wavy flow regimes have been investigated numerically for the oil (1.57 mPa s viscosity and 780 kg/m3 density) and water twophase flow in small and large horizontal steel pipes with a diameter between 0.0254 to 0.508 m by ANSYS Fluent software. Volume of fluid (VOF) with two phases flows using two equations family models (Realizable k-

Keywords: CFD, two-phase flow, pressure gradient, volume of fluid, large diameter, horizontal pipe, oil-water stratified and stratified wavy flow

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Authors: Anaissia Franca, Julian Fernandez, Curran Crawford, Ned Djilali

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A methodology to estimate the state-of-charge (SOC) of battery electric buses, including degradation effects, for a given driving cycle is presented to support long-term techno-economic analysis integrating electric buses and charging infrastructure. The degradation mechanisms, characterized by both capacity and power fade with time, have been modeled using an electrochemical model for Li-ion batteries. Iterative changes in the negative electrode film resistance and decrease in available lithium as a function of utilization is simulated for every cycle. The cycles are formulated to follow typical transit bus driving patterns. The power and capacity decay resulting from the degradation model are introduced as inputs to a longitudinal chassis dynamic analysis that calculates the power consumption of the bus for a given driving cycle to find the state-of-charge of the battery as a function of time. The method is applied to an in-depot charging scenario, for which the bus is charged exclusively at the depot, overnight and to its full capacity. This scenario is run both with and without including degradation effects over time to illustrate the significant impact of degradation mechanisms on bus performance when doing feasibility studies for a fleet of electric buses. The impact of battery degradation on battery lifetime is also assessed. The modeling tool can be further used to optimize component sizing and charging locations for electric bus deployment projects.

Keywords: battery electric bus, E-bus, in-depot charging, lithium-ion battery, battery degradation, capacity fade, power fade, electric vehicle, SEI, electrochemical models

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Authors: Valentin Nickolai, Florian Pfeffel, Christian Louis Kühner

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In many industrialized nations, the demand for skilled workers rises, causing the current market for employees to be more candidate-driven than employer-driven. Therefore, losing highly skilled and experienced employees due to early or partial retirement negatively impacts firms. Therefore, finding new ways to incentivize older employees (Silver Workers) to stay longer with the company and in their job can be crucial for the success of a firm. This study analyzes how working remotely can be a valid incentive for experienced Silver Workers to stay in their job and instead work from home with more flexible working hours. An online survey with n = 684 respondents, who are employed in the service sector, has been conducted based on 13 constructs that influence job satisfaction. These have been further categorized into three groups “classic influencing factors,” “influencing factors changed by remote working,” and new remote working influencing factors,” and were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Here, Cronbach’s alpha of the individual constructs was shown to be suitable. Furthermore, the construct validity of the constructs was confirmed by face validity, content validity, convergent validity (AVE > 0.5: CR > 0.7), and discriminant validity. Additionally, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the model fit for the investigated sample (CMIN/DF: 2.567; CFI: 0.927; RMSEA: 0.048). It was shown in the SEM-analysis that the influencing factor on job satisfaction, “identification with the work,” is the most significant with β = 0.540, followed by “Appreciation” (β = 0.151), “Compensation” (β = 0.124), “Work-Life-Balance” (β = 0.116), and “Communication and Exchange of Information” (β = 0.105). While the significance of each factor can vary depending on the work model, the SEM-analysis also shows that the identification with the work is the most significant factor in all three work models mentioned above and, in the case of the traditional office work model, it is the only significant influencing factor. The study shows that employees between the ages of 56 and 65 years have the highest job satisfaction when working entirely from home or remotely. Furthermore, their job satisfaction score of 5.4 on a scale from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 7 (very satisfied) is the highest amongst all age groups in any of the three work models. Due to the significantly higher job satisfaction, it can be argued that giving Silver Workers the offer to work from home or remotely can incentivize them not to opt for early retirement or partial retirement but to stay in their job full-time Furthermore, these findings can indicate that employees in the Silver Worker age are much more inclined to leave their job for early retirement if they have to entirely work in the office.

Keywords: home office, remote work instead of early or partial retirement, silver worker, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Debasis Sengupta, Sudipta Das

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The class of life distributions with decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) is well known in the field of reliability modeling. It contains the IFR class of distributions and is contained in the NBUE class of distributions. While upper and lower bounds of the reliability distribution function of aging classes such as IFR, IFRA, NBU, NBUE, and HNBUE have discussed in the literature for a long time, there is no analogous result available for the DMRL class. We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the reliability function of the DMRL class in terms of first order finite moment. The lower bound is obtained by showing that for any fixed time, the minimization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean is equivalent to its minimization over a smaller class of distribution with a special form. Optimization over this restricted set can be made algebraically. Likewise, the maximization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean turns out to be a parametric optimization problem over the class of DMRL distributions of a special form. The constructive proofs also establish that both the upper and lower bounds are sharp. Further, the DMRL upper bound coincides with the HNBUE upper bound and the lower bound coincides with the IFR lower bound. We also prove that a pair of sharp upper and lower bounds for the reliability function when the distribution is increasing mean residual life (IMRL) with a fixed mean. This result is proved in a similar way. These inequalities fill a long-standing void in the literature of the life distribution modeling.

Keywords: DMRL, IMRL, reliability bounds, hazard functions

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Authors: Cecile Meier, Drago Diaz Aleman, Itahisa Perez Conesa, Jose Luis Saorin Perez, Jorge De La Torre Cantero

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In this work, two ways of creating small-sized metal sculptures are proposed: the first by means of microcasting and the second by electroforming from models printed in 3D using an FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling‎) printer or using a DLP (Digital Light Processing) printer. It is viable to replace the wax in the processes of the artistic foundry with 3D printed objects. In this technique, the digital models are manufactured with resin using a low-cost 3D FDM printer in polylactic acid (PLA). This material is used, because its properties make it a viable substitute to wax, within the processes of artistic casting with the technique of lost wax through Ceramic Shell casting. This technique consists of covering a sculpture of wax or in this case PLA with several layers of thermoresistant material. This material is heated to melt the PLA, obtaining an empty mold that is later filled with the molten metal. It is verified that the PLA models reduce the cost and time compared with the hand modeling of the wax. In addition, one can manufacture parts with 3D printing that are not possible to create with manual techniques. However, the sculptures created with this technique have a size limit. The problem is that when printed pieces with PLA are very small, they lose detail, and the laminar texture hides the shape of the piece. DLP type printer allows obtaining more detailed and smaller pieces than the FDM. Such small models are quite difficult and complex to melt using the lost wax technique of Ceramic Shell casting. But, as an alternative, there are microcasting and electroforming, which are specialized in creating small metal pieces such as jewelry ones. The microcasting is a variant of the lost wax that consists of introducing the model in a cylinder in which the refractory material is also poured. The molds are heated in an oven to melt the model and cook them. Finally, the metal is poured into the still hot cylinders that rotate in a machine at high speed to properly distribute all the metal. Because microcasting requires expensive material and machinery to melt a piece of metal, electroforming is an alternative for this process. The electroforming uses models in different materials; for this study, micro-sculptures printed in 3D are used. These are subjected to an electroforming bath that covers the pieces with a very thin layer of metal. This work will investigate the recommended size to use 3D printers, both with PLA and resin and first tests are being done to validate use the electroforming process of microsculptures, which are printed in resin using a DLP printer.

Keywords: sculptures, DLP 3D printer, microcasting, electroforming, fused deposition modeling

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Authors: Faruk Ortes, Derya Karabulut, Yunus Ziya Arslan

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Myoelectric features gathering from musculature environment are considered on a preferential basis to perceive muscle activation and control human arm prostheses according to recent experimental researches. EMG (electromyography) signal based human arm prostheses have shown a promising performance in terms of providing basic functional requirements of motions for the amputated people in recent years. However, these assistive devices for neurorehabilitation still have important limitations in enabling amputated people to perform rather sophisticated or functional movements. Surface electromyogram (EMG) is used as the control signal to command such devices. This kind of control consists of activating a motion in prosthetic arm using muscle activation for the same particular motion. Extraction of clear and certain neural information from EMG signals plays a major role especially in fine control of hand prosthesis movements. Many signal processing methods have been utilized for feature extraction from EMG signals. The specific objective of this study was to compare widely used time domain features of EMG signal including integrated EMG(IEMG), root mean square (RMS) and waveform length(WL) for prediction of externally applied forces to human hands. Obtained features were classified using artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the forces. EMG signals supplied to process were recorded during only type of muscle contraction which is isometric and isotonic one. Experiments were performed by three healthy subjects who are right-handed and in a range of 25-35 year-old aging. EMG signals were collected from muscles of the proximal part of the upper body consisting of: biceps brachii, triceps brachii, pectorialis major and trapezius. The force prediction results obtained from the ANN were statistically analyzed and merits and pitfalls of the extracted features were discussed with detail. The obtained results are anticipated to contribute classification process of EMG signal and motion control of powered human arm prosthetics control.

Keywords: assistive devices for neurorehabilitation, electromyography, feature extraction, force estimation, human arm prosthesis

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Authors: Jyoti Srivastava, Sandhya S. Kaushik, Mallika Tewari, Hari S. Shukla

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Little information is available about the development of psychological well being over time among women who have been undergoing treatment for breast cancer. The aim of this study was to identify the trajectories of depression anxiety and stress among women with early-stage breast cancer. Of the 48 Indian women with newly diagnosed early-stage breast cancer recruited from surgical oncology unit, 39 completed an interview and were assessed for depression anxiety and stress (Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-DASS 21) before their first course of chemotherapy (baseline) and follow up interviews at 3, 6 and 9 months thereafter. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories of Depression Anxiety and Stress symptoms. Logistic Regression analysis was used to evaluate the characteristics of women in distinct groups. Most women showed mild to moderate level of depression and anxiety (68%) while normal to mild level of stress (71%). But one in 11 women was chronically anxious (9%) and depressed (9%). Young age, having a partner, shorter education and receiving chemotherapy but not radiotherapy might characterize women whose psychological symptoms remain strong nine months after diagnosis. By looking beyond the mean, it was found that several socio-demographic and treatment factors characterized the women whose depression, anxiety and stress level remained severe even nine months after diagnosis. The results suggest that support provided to cancer patients should have a special focus on a relatively small group of patient most in need.

Keywords: psychological well being, growth mixture modeling, logistic regression analysis, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Avinoam Rabinovich

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CO₂ geological storage is a proven technology for reducing anthropogenic carbon emissions, which is paramount for achieving the ambitious net zero emissions goal. Core flooding experiments are an important step in any CO₂ storage project, allowing us to gain information on the flow of CO₂ and brine in the porous rock extracted from the reservoir. This information is important for understanding basic mechanisms related to CO₂ geological storage as well as for reservoir modeling, which is an integral part of a field project. In this work, a different method for constructing accurate models of CO₂-brine core flooding will be presented. Results for synthetic cases and real experiments will be shown and compared with numerical models to exhibit their predictive capabilities. Furthermore, the various mechanisms which impact the CO₂ distribution and trapping in the rock samples will be discussed, and examples from models and experiments will be provided. The new method entails solving an inverse problem to obtain a three-dimensional permeability distribution which, along with the relative permeability and capillary pressure functions, constitutes a model of the flow experiments. The model is more accurate when data from a number of experiments are combined to solve the inverse problem. This model can then be used to test various other injection flow rates and fluid fractions which have not been tested in experiments. The models can also be used to bridge the gap between small-scale capillary heterogeneity effects (sub-core and core scale) and large-scale (reservoir scale) effects, known as the upscaling problem.

Keywords: CO₂ geological storage, residual trapping, capillary heterogeneity, core flooding, CO₂-brine flow

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Authors: B. Selma

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The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of SIPINA method to predict the harmfulness parameters controlling the seismic response. The approach developed takes into consideration both the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration. The parameter to determine is displacement. The data used for the learning of this method and analysis nonlinear seismic are described and applied to a class of models damaged to some typical structures of the existing urban infrastructure of Jassy, Romania. The results obtained indicate an influence of the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration on the displacement.

Keywords: SIPINA algorithm, seism, focal depth, peak ground acceleration, displacement

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Authors: Vinod Nair, C. Sadasivan

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Beta-lactam antibiotics are the most frequently prescribed medications in modern medicine. The antibiotic resistance by the production of enzyme beta-lactamase is an important mechanism seen in microorganisms. Resistance to beta-lactams mediated by beta-lactamases can be overcome successfully with the use of beta-lactamase inhibitors. New generations of the antibiotics contain mostly synthetic compounds, and many side effects have been reported for them. Combinations of beta-lactam and beta-lactamase inhibitors have become one of the most successful antimicrobial strategies in the current scenario of bacterial infections. Plant-based drugs are very cheap and having lesser adverse effect than synthetic compounds. The synergistic effect of eugenol acetate with beta-lactams restores the activity of beta-lactams, allowing their continued clinical use. It is reported here the enhanced inhibitory effect of phytochemical, eugenol acetate, isolated from the plant Syzygium aromaticum with beta-lactams on beta-lactamase. The compound was found to have synergistic effect with the antibiotic amoxicillin against antibiotic-resistant strain of S.aureus. The enzyme was purified from the organism and incubated with the compound. The assay showed that the compound could inhibit the enzymatic activity of beta-lactamase. Modeling and molecular docking studies indicated that the compound can fit into the active site of beta-lactamase and can mask the important residue for hydrolysis of beta-lactams. The synergistic effects of eugenol acetate with beta-lactam antibiotics may justify, the use of these plant compounds for the preparation of β-lactamase inhibitors against β-lactam resistant S.aureus.

Keywords: betalactamase, eugenol acetate, synergistic effect, molecular modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Sadeq Al Yaari, Fayza Alhammadi, Ayman Al Yaari, Montaha Al Yaari, Aayah Al Yaari, Adham Al Yaari, Sajedah Al Yaari, Saleh Al Yami

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Background: There has been a debate in the literature over the years as to whether or not MossTalk Words program fits Arab Broca’s aphasics (BAs) due to that language differences and also the fact that the technique has not yet been used for aphasics with semantic dementia (SD aphasics). Aims: To oversimplify the above mentioned debate slightly for purposes of exposition, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the “usability” of this program as well as pictures and community as therapeutic techniques for both Arab BAs and SD aphasics. Method: The subjects of this study are two Saudi aphasics (53 and 57 years old, respectively). The former suffers from Broca’s aphasia due to a stroke, while the latter suffers from semantic dementia. Both aphasics can speak English and have used the Moss Talk Words program in addition to intensive picture-naming therapeutic sessions for two years. They were tested by one of the researchers four times (a time per six months). The families of the two subjects, in addition to their relatives and friends, played a major part in all therapeutic sessions. Conclusion: Results show that in averages across the entire therapeutic sessions, MossTalk Words program was clearly found more effective in modeling BAs’ pronunciation than that of SD aphasic. Furthermore, picture-naming intensive exercises in addition to the positive role of the community members played a major role in the progress of the two subjects’ performance.

Keywords: moss talk words, program, technique, Broca’s aphasia, semantic dementia, subjects, picture, community

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Al-Sulaihi, Khalid S. Al-Gahtani, Abdullah M. Al-Sugair, Aref A. Abadel

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Achieving environmental sustainability is one of the important issues considered in many countries’ vision. Green/Sustainable building is widely used terminology for describing a friendly environmental construction. Applying sustainable practices has a significant importance in various fields, including construction field that consumes an enormous amount of resource and causes a considerable amount of waste. The need for sustainability is increased in the regions that suffering from the limitation of natural resource and extreme weather conditions such as Saudi Arabia. Since buildings designs are getting sophisticated, the need for tools, which support decision-making for sustainability issues, is increasing, especially in the design and preconstruction stages. In this context, Building Information Modeling (BIM) can aid in performing complex building performance analyses to ensure an optimized sustainable building design. Accordingly, this paper introduces a roadmap towards developing a systematic approach for presenting the sustainability of buildings using BIM. The approach includes set of main processes including; identifying the sustainability parameters that can be used for sustainability assessment in Saudi Arabia, developing sustainability assessment method that fits the special circumstances in the Kingdom, identifying the sustainability requirements and BIM functions that can be used for satisfying these requirements, and integrating these requirements with identified functions. As a result, the sustainability-BIM approach can be developed which helps designers in assessing the sustainability and exploring different design alternatives at the early stage of the construction project.

Keywords: green buildings, sustainability, BIM, rating systems, environment, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Nicolas Plamondon, Stuart Atkinson, Shuzi Zhou

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The insurance industry is usually not the first topic one has in mind when thinking about applications of data science. However, the use of data science in the finance and insurance industry is growing quickly for several reasons, including an abundance of reliable customer data, ferocious competition requiring more accurate pricing, etc. Among the top use cases of data science, we find pricing optimization, customer segmentation, customer risk assessment, fraud detection, marketing, and triage analytics. The objective of this paper is to present an application of the generalized additive model (GAM) on a commercial automobile insurance product: an individually rated commercial automobile. These are vehicles used for commercial purposes, but for which there is not enough volume to apply pricing to several vehicles at the same time. The GAM model was selected as an improvement over GLM for its ease of use and its wide range of applications. The model was trained using the largest split of the data to determine model parameters. The remaining part of the data was used as testing data to verify the quality of the modeling activity. We used the Gini coefficient to evaluate the performance of the model. For long-term monitoring, commonly used metrics such as RMSE and MAE will be used. Another topic of interest in the insurance industry is to process of producing the model. We will discuss at a high level the interactions between the different teams with an insurance company that needs to work together to produce a model and then monitor the performance of the model over time. Moreover, we will discuss the regulations in place in the insurance industry. Finally, we will discuss the maintenance of the model and the fact that new data does not come constantly and that some metrics can take a long time to become meaningful.

Keywords: insurance, data science, modeling, monitoring, regulation, processes

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Authors: Badawia Ibrahim, Iman Hussein, Samar El Sheikh, Fatma Abou Elkasem, Hazem Abo Ismael

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Background: Response of breast carcinoma to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) varies regarding many factors including hormonal receptor status. Breast cancer is a heterogenous disease with different outcomes, hence a need arises for new markers predicting the outcome of NAC especially for the triple negative group when estrogen, progesterone receptors and Her2/neu are negative. FOXP3 is a promising target with unclear role. Aim: To examine the value of FOXP3 expression in locally advanced triple negative breast cancer tumoral cells as well as tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and to elucidate its relation to the extent of NAC response. Material and Methods: Forty five cases of immunohistochemically confirmed to be triple negative breast carcinoma were evaluated for NAC (Doxorubicin, Cyclophosphamide AC x 4 cycles + Paclitaxel x 12 weeks, patients with ejection fraction less than 60% received Taxotere or Cyclophosphamide, Methotrexate, Fluorouracil CMF) response in both tumour and lymph nodes status according to Miller & Payne's and Sataloff's systems. FOXP3 expression in tumor as well as TILs evaluated in the pretherapy biopsies was correlated with NAC response in breast tumor and lymph nodes as well as other clinicopathological factors. Results: Breast tumour cells showed FOXP3 positive cytoplasmic expression in (42%) of cases. High FOXP3 expression percentage was detected in (47%) of cases. High infiltration by FOXP3+TILs was detected in (49%) of cases. Positive FOXP3 expression was associated with negative lymph node metastasis. High FOXP3 expression percentage and high infiltration by FOXP3+TILs were significantly associated with complete therapy response in axillary lymph nodes. High FOXP3 expression in tumour cells was associated with high infiltration by FOXP3+TILs. Conclusion: This result may provide evidence that FOXP3 marker is a good prognostic and predictive marker for triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) indicated for neoadjuvant chemotherapy and can be used for stratifications of TNBC cases indicated for NAC. As well, this study confirmed the fact that the tumour cells and the surrounding microenvironment interact with each other and the tumour microenvironment can influence the treatment outcomes of TNBC.

Keywords: breast cancer, FOXP3 expression, prediction of neoadjuvant chemotherapy effect, triple negative

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Authors: Marcos Valdez Alexander Junior, Igor Aguilar-Alonso

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Malnutrition is the root of different diseases that universally affect everyone, diseases such as obesity and malnutrition. The objective of this research is to predict the calories of the food to be eaten, developing a smart mobile application to show the user if a meal is balanced. Due to the large percentage of obesity and malnutrition in Peru, the present work is carried out. The development of the intelligent application is proposed with a three-layer architecture, and for the prediction of the nutritional value of the food, the use of pre-trained models based on convolutional neural networks is proposed.

Keywords: volume estimation, calorie estimation, artificial vision, food nutrition

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Authors: Gizachew Mulugeta Manahelohe, Khidmet Safarovich Shikhaliev

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There has been a significant surge in interest in the synthesis of heterocyclic compounds that contain hydroquinoline fragments. This surge can be attributed to the broad range of pharmaceutical and industrial applications that these compounds possess. The present study provides a comprehensive account of the synthesis of both linear and fused heterocyclic systems that incorporate hydroquinoline fragments. Furthermore, the pharmacological activity spectra of the synthesized compounds were assessed using the in silico method, employing the prediction of activity spectra of substances (PASS) program. Hydroquinoline nitriles 7 and 8 were prepared through the reaction of the corresponding hydroquinolinecarbaldehyde using a hydroxylammonium chloride/pyridine/toluene system and iodine in aqueous ammonia under ambient conditions, respectively. 2-Phenyl-1,3-oxazol-5(4H)-ones 9a,b and 10a,b were synthesized via the condensation of compounds 5a,b and 6a,b with hippuric acid in acetic acid in 30–60% yield. When activated, 7-methylazolopyrimidines 11a and b were reacted with N-alkyl-2,2,4-trimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroquinoline-6-carbaldehydes 6a and b, and triazolo/pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidin-6-yl carboxylic acids 12a and b were obtained in 60–70% yield. The condensation of 7-hydroxy-1,2,3,4-tetramethyl-1,2-dihydroquinoline 3 h with dimethylacetylenedicarboxylate (DMAD) and ethyl acetoacetate afforded cyclic products 16 and 17, respectively. The condensation reaction of 6-formyl-7-hydroxy-1,2,2,4-tetramethyl-1,2-dihydroquinoline 5e with methylene-active compounds such as ethyl cyanoacetate/dimethyl-3-oxopentanedioate/ethyl acetoacetate/diethylmalonate/Meldrum’s acid afforded 3-substituted coumarins containing dihydroquinolines 19 and 21. Pentacyclic coumarin 22 was obtained via the random condensation of malononitrile with 5e in the presence of a catalytic amount of piperidine in ethanol. The biological activities of the synthesized compounds were assessed using the PASS program. Based on the prognosis, compounds 13a, b, and 14 exhibited a high likelihood of being active as inhibitors of gluconate 2-dehydrogenase, as well as possessing antiallergic, antiasthmatic, and antiarthritic properties, with a probability value (Pa) ranging from 0.849 to 0.870. Furthermore, it was discovered that hydroquinoline carbonitriles 7 and 8 tended to act as effective progesterone antagonists and displayed antiallergic, antiasthmatic, and antiarthritic effects (Pa = 0.276–0.827). Among the hydroquinolines containing coumarin moieties, compounds 17, 19a, and 19c were predicted to be potent progesterone antagonists, with Pa values of 0.710, 0.630, and 0.615, respectively.

Keywords: heterocyclic compound, hydroquinoline, Vilsmeier–Haack formulation, quinolone

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Authors: Sandeep, A. Joshi, Kamal, Piu Dhibar, Parveen Kumar

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In the present work strong ground motion has been simulated using a modified semi-empirical technique (MSET), with frequency dependent radiation pattern model. Joshi et al. (2014) have modified the semi-empirical technique to incorporate the modeling of strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). A frequency dependent radiation pattern model is applied to simulate high frequency ground motion more precisely. Identified SMGAs (Kurahashi and Irikura 2012) of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) were modeled using this modified technique. Records are simulated for both frequency dependent and constant radiation pattern function. Simulated records for both cases are compared with observed records in terms of peak ground acceleration and pseudo acceleration response spectra at different stations. Comparison of simulated and observed records in terms of root mean square error suggests that the method is capable of simulating record which matches in a wide frequency range for this earthquake and bears realistic appearance in terms of shape and strong motion parameters. The results confirm the efficacy and suitability of rupture model defined by five SMGAs for the developed modified technique.

Keywords: strong ground motion, semi-empirical, strong motion generation area, frequency dependent radiation pattern, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Tim Steinhaus, Christian Beidl

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Urban air quality and climate protection are two major challenges for future mobility systems. Despite the steady reduction of pollutant emissions from vehicles over past decades, local immission load within cities partially still reaches heights, which are considered hazardous to human health. Although traffic-related emissions account for a major part of the overall urban pollution, modeling the exact interaction remains challenging. In this paper, a novel approach for the determination of the emission-immission interaction on the basis of neural network modeling for traffic induced NO2-immission load within a near-traffic hot-spot scenario is presented. In a detailed sensitivity analysis, the significance of relevant influencing variables on the prevailing NO2 concentration is initially analyzed. Based on this, the generation process of the model is described, in which not only environmental influences but also the vehicle fleet composition including its associated segment- and certification-specific real driving emission factors are derived and used as input quantities. The validity of this approach, which has been presented in the past, is re-examined in this paper using updated data on vehicle emissions and recent immission measurement data. Within the framework of a final scenario analysis, the future development of the immission load is forecast for different developments in the vehicle fleet composition. It is shown that immission levels of less than half of today’s yearly average limit values are technically feasible in hot-spot situations.

Keywords: air quality, emission, emission-immission-interaction, immission, NO2, zero impact

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Authors: Sanghoon Shim, Jaehwan Jung, Sung-Ah Kim

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As the digital technology develops, studies on the TUI (Tangible User Interface) that links the physical environment utilizing the human senses with the virtual environment through the computer are actively being conducted. In addition, there has been a tremendous advance in computer design making through the use of computer-aided design techniques, which enable optimized decision-making through comparison with machine learning and parallel comparison of alternatives. However, a complex design that can respond to user requirements or performance can emerge through the intuition of the designer, but it is difficult to actualize the emerged design by the designer's ability alone. Ancillary tools such as Gaudí's Sandbag can be an instrument to reinforce and evolve emerged ideas from designers. With the advent of many commercial tools that support 3D objects, designers' intentions are easily reflected in their designs, but the degree of their reflection reflects their intentions according to the proficiency of design tools. This study embodies the environment in which the form can be implemented by the fingers of the most basic designer in the initial design phase of the complex type building design. Leapmotion is used as a sensor to recognize the hand motions of the designer, and it is converted into digital information to realize an environment that can be linked in real time in virtual reality (VR). In addition, the implemented design can be linked with Rhino™, a 3D authoring tool, and its plug-in Grasshopper™ in real time. As a result, it is possible to design sensibly using TUI, and it can serve as a tool for assisting designer intuition.

Keywords: design environment, digital modeling, hand gesture, TUI, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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Authors: M. Yilmaz, I. Yilmaz, M. Uysal

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The Earth system generates different phenomena that are observable at the surface of the Earth such as mass deformations and displacements leading to plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanism. The dynamic processes associated with the interior, surface, and atmosphere of the Earth affect the three pillars of geodesy: shape of the Earth, its gravity field, and its rotation. Geodesy establishes a characteristic structure in order to define, monitor, and predict of the whole Earth system. The traditional and new instruments, observables, and techniques in geodesy are related to the gravity field. Therefore, the geodesy monitors the gravity field and its temporal variability in order to transform the geodetic observations made on the physical surface of the Earth into the geometrical surface in which positions are mathematically defined. In this paper, the main components of the gravity field modeling, (Free-air and Bouguer) gravity anomalies are calculated via recent global models (EGM2008, EIGEN6C4, and GECO) over a selected study area. The model-based gravity anomalies are compared with the corresponding terrestrial gravity data in terms of standard deviation (SD) and root mean square error (RMSE) for determining the best fit global model in the study area at a regional scale in Turkey. The least SD (13.63 mGal) and RMSE (15.71 mGal) were obtained by EGM2008 for the Free-air gravity anomaly residuals. For the Bouguer gravity anomaly residuals, EIGEN6C4 provides the least SD (8.05 mGal) and RMSE (8.12 mGal). The results indicated that EIGEN6C4 can be a useful tool for modeling the gravity field of the Earth over the study area.

Keywords: free-air gravity anomaly, Bouguer gravity anomaly, global model, land gravity

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cerdova

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The contamination of food by microbial agents is a common problem in the industry, especially regarding the elaboration of animal source products. Incorrect manipulation of the machinery or on the raw materials can cause a decrease in production or an epidemiological outbreak due to intoxication. In order to improve food product quality, different methods have been used to reduce or, at least, to slow down the growth of the pathogens, especially deteriorated, infectious or toxigenic bacteria. These methods are usually carried out under low temperatures and short processing time (abiotic agents), along with the application of antibacterial substances, such as bacteriocins (biotic agents). This, in a controlled and efficient way that fulfills the purpose of bacterial control without damaging the final product. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to design a secondary mathematical model that allows the prediction of both the biotic and abiotic factor impact associated with animal source food processing. In order to accomplish this objective, the authors propose a three-dimensional differential equation model, whose components are: bacterial growth, release, production and artificial incorporation of bacteriocins and changes in pH levels of the medium. These three dimensions are constantly being influenced by the temperature of the medium. Secondly, this model adapts to an idealized situation of cross-contamination animal source food processing, with the study agents being both the animal product and the contact surface. Thirdly, the stochastic simulations and the parametric sensibility analysis are compared with referential data. The main results obtained from the analysis and simulations of the mathematical model were to discover that, although bacterial growth can be stopped in lower temperatures, even lower ones are needed to eradicate it. However, this can be not only expensive, but counterproductive as well in terms of the quality of the raw materials and, on the other hand, higher temperatures accelerate bacterial growth. In other aspects, the use and efficiency of bacteriocins are an effective alternative in the short and medium terms. Moreover, an indicator of bacterial growth is a low-level pH, since lots of deteriorating bacteria are lactic acids. Lastly, the processing times are a secondary agent of concern when the rest of the aforementioned agents are under control. Our main conclusion is that when acclimating a mathematical model within the context of the industrial process, it can generate new tools that predict bacterial contamination, the impact of bacterial inhibition, and processing method times. In addition, the mathematical modeling proposed logistic input of broad application, which can be replicated on non-meat food products, other pathogens or even on contamination by crossed contact of allergen foods.

Keywords: bacteriocins, cross-contamination, mathematical model, temperature

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Authors: K. Mirudhula, R. Saravanan

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Bhavani basin is the fourth largest Sub Basin in the Cauvery basin. The entire command area of all three major canals that takes off from the Bhavani river falls within the Erode District i.e. Lower Bhavani Project (LBP), Kodiveri and Kalingarayan canals. The LBP canal is a major source of irrigation in Erode District. Many of these canals are unlined and leakage takes place from them. Thus the seepage from the canal helps in recharging the wells in the area, enabling to get adequate water supply for the crops when water was not released from Bhavanisagar Dam. In this study, the groundwater recharge is determined by groundwater flow modeling using Visual MODFLOW model. For this purpose, three major natural sources of groundwater recharge are taken into consideration such as rainfall infiltration, canal seepage and return flow of irrigation. The model was run and ZONEBUDGET gives an idea about the amount of recharge from lined/unlined canal to the field. Unlined canal helps to recharge the groundwater about 20% more than the lined canal. The analysis reveals that the annual rainfall also has rapidly changed in this region. In the LBP canal Head reach meets their requirement with available quantity of water from the canal system. Tail end reach does not receive the required quantity of water because of seepage loss and conveyance loss. Hence the lined canal can be provided for full length of the main canal. Branch canals and minor distributaries are suggested to maintain the canals with unlined canal system.

Keywords: lower Bhavani basin, erode, groundwater flow modeling, irrigation practice, lined canal system

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

Abstract:

Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: predictive factors, exercise behaviors, Junior high school, Chonburi Province

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Authors: Mingxin Li, Liya Ni

Abstract:

Autonomous parking is a valuable feature applicable to many robotics applications such as tour guide robots, UV sanitizing robots, food delivery robots, and warehouse robots. With auto-parking, the robot will be able to park at the charging zone and charge itself without human intervention. As compared to self-driving vehicles, auto-parking is more challenging for a small-scale mobile robot only equipped with a front camera due to the camera view limited by the robot’s height and the narrow Field of View (FOV) of the inexpensive camera. In this research, auto-parking of a small-scale mobile robot with a front camera only was achieved in a four-step process: Firstly, transfer learning was performed on the AlexNet, a popular pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). It was trained with 150 pictures of empty parking slots and 150 pictures of occupied parking slots from the view angle of a small-scale robot. The dataset of images was divided into a group of 70% images for training and the remaining 30% images for validation. An average success rate of 95% was achieved. Secondly, the image of detected empty parking space was processed with edge detection followed by the computation of parametric representations of the boundary lines using the Hough Transform algorithm. Thirdly, the positions of the entrance point and center of available parking space were predicted based on the robot kinematic model as the robot was driving closer to the parking space because the boundary lines disappeared partially or completely from its camera view due to the height and FOV limitations. The robot used its wheel speeds to compute the positions of the parking space with respect to its changing local frame as it moved along, based on its kinematic model. Lastly, the predicted entrance point of the parking space was used as the reference for the motion control of the robot until it was replaced by the actual center when it became visible again by the robot. The linear and angular velocities of the robot chassis center were computed based on the error between the current chassis center and the reference point. Then the left and right wheel speeds were obtained using inverse kinematics and sent to the motor driver. The above-mentioned four subtasks were all successfully accomplished, with the transformed learning, image processing, and target prediction performed in MATLAB, while the motion control and image capture conducted on a self-built small scale differential drive mobile robot. The small-scale robot employs a Raspberry Pi board, a Pi camera, an L298N dual H-bridge motor driver, a USB power module, a power bank, four wheels, and a chassis. Future research includes three areas: the integration of all four subsystems into one hardware/software platform with the upgrade to an Nvidia Jetson Nano board that provides superior performance for deep learning and image processing; more testing and validation on the identification of available parking space and its boundary lines; improvement of performance after the hardware/software integration is completed.

Keywords: autonomous parking, convolutional neural network, image processing, kinematics-based prediction, transfer learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 130