Search results for: dynamic modelling

Authors: Frezer Alem Kebede

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The notion of viewing ICT as merely support for the business process has shifted towards viewing ICT as a critical business enabler. As such, the need for ICT devices has increased, contributing to high electronic equipment acquisition and disposal. Hence, its use and disposal must be seen in light of environmental sustainability, i.e., in terms of green use and disposal. However, there are limited studies on green Use and Disposal framework to be used as guiding lens by organizations in developing countries. And this study endeavors to address that need taking one of the largest multinational ICT intensive company in the country. The design and development of this framework passed through several stages, initially factors affecting green use and disposal were identified after quantitative and qualitative data analysis then there were multiple brainstorming sessions for the design enhancement as participative modelling was employed. Given the difference in scope and magnitude of the challenges identified, the proposed framework approaches green use and disposal in four imperatives; strategically, tactically, operationally and through continuous improvement.

Keywords: energy efficiency, green disposal, green ICT, green use, green use and disposal framework, sustainability

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Authors: Francisco Duarte, Adelino Ferreira, Paulo Fael

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With the growing need for alternative energy sources, research into energy harvesting technologies has increased considerably in recent years. The particular case of energy harvesting on road pavements is a very recent area of research, with different technologies having been developed in recent years. However, none of them have presented high conversion efficiencies nor technical or economic viability. This paper deals with the development of a mechanical system to implement on a road pavement energy harvesting electromechanical device, to transmit energy from the device surface to an electrical generator. The main goal is to quantify the energy harvesting, transmission and conversion efficiency of the proposed system and compare it with existing systems. Conclusions about the system’s efficiency are presented.

Keywords: road pavement, energy harvesting, energy conversion, system modelling

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Authors: Waleed Ahmed, Huang Xiaohua, Wilayat Ali

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The wheelchair users are generally exposed to physical and psychological health problems, e.g., pressure sores and pain in the hip joint, associated with seating posture or being inactive in a wheelchair for a long time. Reclining Wheelchair with back, thigh, and leg adjustment helps in daily life activities and health preservation. The seat elevating function of an electric wheelchair allows the user (lower limb amputation) to reach different heights. An electric wheelchair is expected to ease the lives of the elderly and disable people by giving them mobility support and decreasing the percentage of accidents caused by users’ narrow sight or joystick operation errors. Thus, this paper proposed the design, analysis and obstacle avoidance control of an electric wheelchair with sit-sleep-seat elevation functions. A 3D model of a wheelchair is designed in SolidWorks that was later used for multi-body dynamic (MBD) analysis and to verify driving control system. The control system uses the fuzzy algorithm to avoid the obstacle by getting information in the form of distance from the ultrasonic sensor and user-specified direction from the joystick’s operation. The proposed fuzzy driving control system focuses on the direction and velocity of the wheelchair. The wheelchair model has been examined and proven in MSC Adams (Automated Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems). The designed fuzzy control algorithm is implemented on Gazebo robotic 3D simulator using Robotic Operating System (ROS) middleware. The proposed wheelchair design enhanced mobility and quality of life by improving the user’s functional capabilities. Simulation results verify the non-accidental behavior of the electric wheelchair.

Keywords: fuzzy logic control, joystick, multi body dynamics, obstacle avoidance, scissor mechanism, sensor

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Authors: Shri Krishna Mishra

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In an educational context, technology can prompt interactive plight only when it is used in conjunction with interactive plight methods. This study, therefore, examines the relationships among components that contribute to higher levels of interactive plight and execution, such as interactive Plight methods, technology, intrinsic motivation and deep learning. 526 students participated in this study. With structural equation modelling, the authors test the conceptual model and identify satisfactory model fit. The results indicate that interactive Plight methods, technology and intrinsic motivation have significant relationship with interactive Plight; deep learning mediates the relationships of the other variables with Execution.

Keywords: searching the relationship among components, contribute to interactive plight, educational execution, intrinsic motivation

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Authors: George R. Puno, Eric N. Bruno

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The natural landscape of the Philippine archipelago plus the current realities of climate change make the country vulnerable to flood hazards. Flooding becomes the recurring natural disaster in the country resulting to lose of lives and properties. Musimusi is among the rivers which exhibited inundation particularly at the inhabited floodplain portion of its watershed. During the event, rescue operations and distribution of relief goods become a problem due to lack of high resolution flood maps to aid local government unit identify the most affected areas. In the attempt of minimizing impact of flooding, hydrologic modelling with high resolution mapping is becoming more challenging and important. This study focused on the analysis of flood extent as a function of different geomorphologic characteristics of Musimusi watershed. The methods include the delineation of morphometric parameters in the Musimusi watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geometric calculations tools. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) as one of the derivatives of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology was used to determine the extent of river inundation involving the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrology Modelling System (HEC-HMS) models. The digital elevation model (DEM) from synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was used to delineate watershed boundary and river network. Datasets like mean sea level, river cross section, river stage, discharge and rainfall were also used as input parameters. Curve number (CN), vegetation, and soil properties were calibrated based on the existing condition of the site. Results showed that the drainage density value of the watershed is low which indicates that the basin is highly permeable subsoil and thick vegetative cover. The watershed’s elongation ratio value of 0.9 implies that the floodplain portion of the watershed is susceptible to flooding. The bifurcation ratio value of 2.1 indicates higher risk of flooding in localized areas of the watershed. The circularity ratio value (1.20) indicates that the basin is circular in shape, high discharge of runoff and low permeability of the subsoil condition. The heavy rainfall of 167 mm brought by Typhoon Seniang last December 29, 2014 was characterized as high intensity and long duration, with a return period of 100 years produced 316 m3s-1 outflows. Portion of the floodplain zone (1.52%) suffered inundation with 2.76 m depth at the maximum. The information generated in this study is helpful to the local disaster risk reduction management council in monitoring the affected sites for more appropriate decisions so that cost of rescue operations and relief goods distribution is minimized.

Keywords: flooding, geomorphology, mapping, watershed

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Authors: Daniel Martin Fellows, Sean P. Walton, Jennifer Thompson, Oubay Hassan, Kevin Tinkham, Ella Quigley

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Structural integrity for cladding products is a key performance parameter, especially concerning fire performance. Cladding products such as PIR-based sandwich panels are tested rigorously, in line with industrial standards. Physical fire tests are necessary to ensure the customer's safety but can give little information about critical behaviours that can help develop new materials. Numerical modelling is a tool that can help investigate a fire's behaviour further by replicating the fire test. However, fire is an interdisciplinary problem as it is a chemical reaction that behaves fluidly and impacts structural integrity. An analysis using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is needed to capture all aspects of a fire performance test. One method is a two-way coupling analysis that imports the updated changes in thermal data, due to the fire's behaviour, to the FEA solver in a series of iterations. In light of our recent work with Tata Steel U.K using a two-way coupling methodology to determine the fire performance, it has been shown that a program called FDS-2-Abaqus can make predictions of a BS 476 -22 furnace test with a degree of accuracy. The test demonstrated the fire performance of Tata Steel U.K Trisomet product, a Polyisocyanurate (PIR) based sandwich panel used for cladding. Previous works demonstrated the limitations of the current version of the program, the main limitation being the computational cost of modelling three Trisomet panels, totalling an area of 9 . The computational cost increases substantially, with the intention to scale up to an LPS 1181-1 test, which includes a total panel surface area of 200 .The FDS-2-Abaqus program is developed further within this paper to overcome this obstacle and better accommodate Tata Steel U.K PIR sandwich panels. The new developments aim to reduce the computational cost and error margin compared to experimental data. One avenue explored is a multi-scale approach in the form of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). The approach allows the user to include refined details of the sandwich panels, such as the overlapping joints, without a computationally costly mesh size.Comparative studies will be made between the new implementations and the previous study completed using the original FDS-2-ABAQUS program. Validation of the study will come from physical experiments in line with governing body standards such as BS 476 -22 and LPS 1181-1. The physical experimental data includes the panels' gas and surface temperatures and mechanical deformation. Conclusions are drawn, noting the new implementations' impact factors and discussing the reasonability for scaling up further to a whole warehouse.

Keywords: fire testing, numerical coupling, sandwich panels, thermo fluids

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Authors: Stehr Melanie

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The availability of apposite information is essential for the decision-making process of organizational buyers. Due to the constraints of the Covid-19 crisis, information channels that emphasize face-to-face contact (e.g. sales visits, trade shows) have been unavailable, and usage of digitally-driven information channels (e.g. videoconferencing, platforms) has skyrocketed. This paper explores the question in which areas the pandemic induced shift in the use of information channels could be sustainable and in which areas it is a temporary phenomenon. While information and buying behavior in B2C purchases has been regularly studied in the last decade, the last fundamental model of organizational buying behavior in B2B was introduced by Johnston and Lewin (1996) in times before the advent of the internet. Subsequently, research efforts in B2B marketing shifted from organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior to the business relationships between sellers and buyers. This study builds on the extensive literature on situational factors influencing organizational buying and information behavior and uses the economics of information theory as a theoretical framework. The research focuses on the German woodworking industry, which before the Covid-19 crisis was characterized by a rather low level of digitization of information channels. By focusing on an industry with traditional communication structures, a shift in information behavior induced by an exogenous shock is considered a ripe research setting. The study is exploratory in nature. The primary data source is 40 in-depth interviews based on the repertory-grid method. Thus, 120 typical buying situations in the woodworking industry and the information and channels relevant to them are identified. The results are combined into clusters, each of which shows similar information behavior in the procurement process. In the next step, the clusters are analyzed in terms of the post and pre-Covid-19 crisis’ behavior identifying stable and dynamic information behavior aspects. Initial results show that, for example, clusters representing search goods with low risk and complexity suggest a sustainable rise in the use of digitally-driven information channels. However, in clusters containing trust goods with high significance and novelty, an increased return to face-to-face information channels can be expected after the Covid-19 crisis. The results are interesting from both a scientific and a practical point of view. This study is one of the first to apply the economics of information theory to organizational buyers and their decision and information behavior in the digital information age. Especially the focus on the dynamic aspects of information behavior after an exogenous shock might contribute new impulses to theoretical debates related to the economics of information theory. For practitioners - especially suppliers’ marketing managers and intermediaries such as publishers or trade show organizers from the woodworking industry - the study shows wide-ranging starting points for a future-oriented segmentation of their marketing program by highlighting the dynamic and stable preferences of elaborated clusters in the choice of their information channels.

Keywords: B2B buying process, crisis, economics of information theory, information channel

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Authors: Anuraj Singh

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The complex dynamics is explored in a prey predator system with multiple delays. The predator dynamics is governed by Leslie-Gower scheme. The existence of periodic solutions via Hopf bifurcation with respect to delay parameters is established. To substantiate analytical findings, numerical simulations are performed. The system shows rich dynamic behavior including chaos and limit cycles.

Keywords: chaos, Hopf bifurcation, stability, time delay

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Authors: Dineshsingh Thakur, S. Nagesh, J. Basha

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A lightweight High Speed Flexible Coupling (HSFC) is used to connect the Engine Gear Box (EGB) with an Accessory Gear Box (AGB) of the combat aircraft. The HSFC transmits the power at high speeds ranging from 10000 to 18000 rpm from the EGB to AGB. The HSFC is also accommodates larger misalignments resulting from thermal expansion of the aircraft engine and mounting arrangement. The HSFC has the series of metallic contoured annular thin cross-sectioned flexible plates to accommodate the misalignments. The flexible plates are accommodating the misalignment by the elastic material flexure. As the HSFC operates at higher speed, the flexural and axial resonance frequencies are to be kept away from the operating speed and proper prediction is required to prevent failure in the transmission line of a single engine fighter aircraft. To study the influence of flexible plate’s contour on the lateral critical speed (LCS) of HSFC, a mathematical model of HSFC as a elven rotor system is developed. The flexible plate being the bending member of the system, its bending stiffness which results from the contoured governs the LCS. Using transfer matrix method, Influence of various flexible plate contours on critical speed is analyzed. In the above analysis, the support bearing flexibility on critical speed prediction is also considered. Based on the study, a model is built with the optimum contour of flexible plate, for validation by experimental modal analysis. A good correlation between the theoretical prediction and model behavior is observed. From the study, it is found that the flexible plate’s contour is playing vital role in modification of system’s dynamic behavior and the present model can be extended for the development of similar type of flexible couplings for its computational simplicity and reliability.

Keywords: flexible rotor, critical speed, experimental modal analysis, high speed flexible coupling (HSFC), misalignment

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Authors: Miklos Taliga

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In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: safety-critical elements, quality managent, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard

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Authors: Tomohiko Utsuki, Kyoka Sato

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In emergency medicine, it is recognized that brain resuscitation is very important for the reduction of mortality rate and neurological sequelae. Especially, the control of brain temperature (BT), intracranial pressure (ICP), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) are most required for stabilizing brain’s physiological state in the treatment for such as brain injury, stroke, and encephalopathy. However, the manual control of BT, ICP, and CBF frequently requires the decision and operation of medical staff, relevant to medication and the setting of therapeutic apparatus. Thus, the integration and the automation of the control of those is very effective for not only improving therapeutic effect but also reducing staff burden and medical cost. For realizing such integration and automation, a mathematical model of brain physiological state is necessary as the controlled object in simulations, because the performance test of a prototype of the control system using patients is not ethically allowed. A model of cerebral blood circulation has already been constructed, which is the most basic part of brain physiological state. Also, a migration model of extracellular fluid in brain has been constructed, however the condition that the total volume of intracranial cavity is almost changeless due to the hardness of cranial bone has not been considered in that model. Therefore, in this research, the dynamic migration model of extracellular fluid in brain was constructed on the consideration of the changelessness of intracranial cavity’s total volume. This model is connectable to the cerebral blood circulation model. The constructed model consists of fourteen compartments, twelve of which corresponds to perfused area of bilateral anterior, middle and posterior cerebral arteries, the others corresponds to cerebral ventricles and subarachnoid space. This model enable to calculate the migration of tissue fluid from capillaries to gray matter and white matter, the flow of tissue fluid between compartments, the production and absorption of cerebrospinal fluid at choroid plexus and arachnoid granulation, and the production of metabolic water. Further, the volume, the colloid concentration, and the tissue pressure of/in each compartment are also calculable by solving 40-dimensional non-linear simultaneous differential equations. In this research, the obtained model was analyzed for its validation under the four condition of a normal adult, an adult with higher cerebral capillary pressure, an adult with lower cerebral capillary pressure, and an adult with lower colloid concentration in cerebral capillary. In the result, calculated fluid flow, tissue volume, colloid concentration, and tissue pressure were all converged to suitable value for the set condition within 60 minutes at a maximum. Also, because these results were not conflict with prior knowledge, it is certain that the model can enough represent physiological state of brain under such limited conditions at least. One of next challenges is to integrate this model and the already constructed cerebral blood circulation model. This modification enable to simulate CBF and ICP more precisely due to calculating the effect of blood pressure change to extracellular fluid migration and that of ICP change to CBF.

Keywords: dynamic model, cerebral extracellular migration, brain resuscitation, automatic control

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Authors: F. Pottmeyer, M. Weispfenning, K. A. Weidenmann

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Continuous carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) exhibit a high application potential for lightweight structures due to their outstanding specific mechanical properties. Embedded metal elements, so-called inserts, can be used to join structural CFRP parts. Drilling of the components to be joined can be avoided using inserts. In consequence, no bearing stress is anticipated. This is a distinctive benefit of embedded inserts, since continuous CFRP have low shear and bearing strength. This paper aims at the investigation of the load bearing capacity after preinduced damages from impact tests and thermal-cycling. In addition, characterization of mechanical properties during dynamic high speed pull-out testing under different loading velocities was conducted. It has been shown that the load bearing capacity increases up to 100% for very high velocities (15 m/s) in comparison with quasi-static loading conditions (1.5 mm/min). Residual strength measurements identified the influence of thermal loading and preinduced mechanical damage. For both, the residual strength was evaluated afterwards by quasi-static pull-out tests. Taking into account the DIN EN 6038 a high decrease of force occurs at impact energy of 16 J with significant damage of the laminate. Lower impact energies of 6 J, 9 J, and 12 J do not decrease the measured residual strength, although the laminate is visibly damaged - distinguished by cracks on the rear side. To evaluate the influence of thermal loading, the specimens were placed in a climate chamber and were exposed to various numbers of temperature cycles. One cycle took 1.5 hours from -40 °C to +80 °C. It could be shown that already 10 temperature cycles decrease the load bearing capacity up to 20%. Further reduction of the residual strength with increasing number of thermal cycles was not observed. Thus, it implies that the maximum damage of the composite is already induced after 10 temperature cycles.

Keywords: composite, joining, inserts, dynamic loading, thermal loading, residual strength, impact

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Authors: Tengku Nilam Baizura, Noor Zalina Mahmood

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In Malaysia, landfilling is the most preferred method and most of it does not have the proper leachate treatment system which can cause environmental problems. Leachate is the major factor to river water pollution since most landfills are located near the river which is the main water resource for the country. The study aimed to estimate leachate production from landfills in Selangor. A simple mathematical modelling was used for the calculation of annual leachate volume. The estimate of identified landfill area (A) using Google Earth was multiplied by the annual rainfall (R). The product is expressed as volume (V). The data indicate that the leachate production is high even it is fully closed. It is important to design the efficient landfill and proper leachate treatment processes especially for the old/closed landfill. Extensive monitoring will be required to predict future impact.

Keywords: landfill, leachate, municipal solid waste management, waste disposal

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Asmita A. Vaidya, Shahista S. Inamdar

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Society is dynamic, in this changing and development processes, Indian Muslim women where no exception to this social change. Islam has elevated her status from being chattels/commodity to individual human being having separate legal personality and equal to that of men but in India, even two women are not equal in availing their matrimonial rights and remedies, separate personal laws are applicable to them and thus gender justice is a fragile myth.

Keywords: Muslim women, gender justice, polygamy, Islamic jurisprudence, equality

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Authors: Sinan Yapici, Hayrettin Eroglu

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The discharge of the aqueous radionuclides wastes used for the diagnoses of diseases and treatments of patients in nuclear medicine can cause fatal health problems when the radionuclides and its stable daughter component mix with underground water. Tl-201, which is one of the radionuclides commonly used in the nuclear medicine, is a toxic substance and is converted to its stable daughter component Hg-201, which is also a poisonous heavy metal: Tl201 → Hg201 + Gamma Ray [135-167 Kev (12%)] + X Ray [69-83 Kev (88%)]; t1/2 = 73,1 h. The purpose of the present work was to remove Tl-201 radionuclides from aqueous solution by biosorption on the solid bio wastes of food and cosmetic industry as bio sorbents of prina from an olive oil plant, rose residue from a rose oil plant and tea residue from a tea plant, and to make a comparison of the biosorption efficiencies. The effects of the biosorption temperature, initial pH of the aqueous solution, bio sorbent dose, particle size and stirring speed on the biosorption yield were investigated in a batch process. It was observed that the biosorption is a rapid process with an equilibrium time less than 10 minutes for all the bio sorbents. The efficiencies were found to be close to each other and measured maximum efficiencies were 93,30 percent for rose residue, 94,1 for prina and 98,4 for tea residue. In a temperature range of 283 and 313 K, the adsorption decreased with increasing temperature almost in a similar way. In a pH range of 2-10, increasing pH enhanced biosorption efficiency up to pH=7 and then the efficiency remained constant in a similar path for all the biosorbents. Increasing stirring speed from 360 to 720 rpm enhanced slightly the biosorption efficiency almost at the same ratio for all bio sorbents. Increasing particle size decreased the efficiency for all biosorbent; however the most negatively effected biosorbent was prina with a decrease in biosorption efficiency from about 84 percent to 40 with an increase in the nominal particle size 0,181 mm to 1,05 while the least effected one, tea residue, went down from about 97 percent to 87,5. The biosorption efficiencies of all the bio sorbents increased with increasing biosorbent dose in the range of 1,5 to 15,0 g/L in a similar manner. The fit of the experimental results to the adsorption isotherms proved that the biosorption process for all the bio sorbents can be represented best by Freundlich model. The kinetic analysis showed that all the processes fit very well to pseudo second order rate model. The thermodynamics calculations gave ∆G values between -8636 J mol-1 and -5378 for tea residue, -5313 and -3343 for rose residue, and -5701 and -3642 for prina with a ∆H values of -39516 J mol-1, -23660 and -26190, and ∆S values of -108.8 J mol-1 K-1, -64,0, -72,0 respectively, showing spontaneous and exothermic character of the processes. An empirical biosorption model in the following form was derived for each biosorbent as function of the parameters and time, taking into account the form of kinetic model, with regression coefficients over 0.9990 where At is biosorbtion efficiency at any time and Ae is the equilibrium efficiency, t is adsorption period as s, ko a constant, pH the initial acidity of biosorption medium, w the stirring speed as s-1, S the biosorbent dose as g L-1, D the particle size as m, and a, b, c, and e are the powers of the parameters, respectively, E a constant containing activation energy and T the temperature as K.

Keywords: radiation, diosorption, thallium, empirical modelling

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Authors: N. Harun, E. E. Masiren, W. H. W. Ibrahim, F. Adam

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Amine absorption process is an approach for mitigation of CO2 from flue gas that produces from power plant. This process is the most common system used in chemical and oil industries for gas purification to remove acid gases. On the challenges of this process is high energy requirement for solvent regeneration to release CO2. In the past few years, mixed alkanolamines have received increasing attention. In most cases, the mixtures contain N-methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) as the base amine with the addition of one or two more reactive amines such as PZ. The reason for the application of such blend amine is to take advantage of high reaction rate of CO2 with the activator combined with the advantages of the low heat of regeneration of MDEA. Several experimental and simulation studies have been undertaken to understand this process using blend MDEA/PZ solvent. Despite those studies, the mechanism of CO2 absorption into the aqueous MDEA is not well understood and available knowledge within the open literature is limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the intermolecular interaction of the blend MDEA/PZ using Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation. MD simulation was run under condition 313K and 1 atm using NVE ensemble at 200ps and NVT ensemble at 1ns. The results were interpreted in term of Radial Distribution Function (RDF) analysis through two system of interest i.e binary and tertiary. The binary system will explain the interaction between amine and water molecule while tertiary system used to determine the interaction between the amine and CO2 molecule. For the binary system, it was observed that the –OH group of MDEA is more attracted to water molecule compared to –NH group of MDEA. The –OH group of MDEA can form the hydrogen bond with water that will assist the solubility of MDEA in water. The intermolecular interaction probability of –OH and –NH group of MDEA with CO2 in blended MDEA/PZ is higher than using single MDEA. This findings show that PZ molecule act as an activator to promote the intermolecular interaction between MDEA and CO2.Thus, blend of MDEA with PZ is expecting to increase the absorption rate of CO2 and reduce the heat regeneration requirement.

Keywords: amine absorption process, blend MDEA/PZ, CO2 capture, molecular dynamic simulation, radial distribution function

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Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

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Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

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Authors: Thomas Chinwe Urama, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue, Peters Chimezie Nnanwa

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This paper investigates the universal financial dynamics in two dominant stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, through an in-depth analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of price returns in Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2009 to 2013. The strength of correlations between stocks is known to be higher in JSE than that of the NSM. Particularly important for modelling Nigerian derivatives in the future, the interactions of other stocks with the oil sector are weak, whereas the banking sector has strong positive interactions with the other sectors in the stock exchange. For the JSE, it is the oil sector and beverages that have greater sectorial correlations, instead of the banks which have the weaker correlation with other sectors in the stock exchange.

Keywords: random matrix theory, cross-correlations, emerging markets, option pricing, eigenvalues eigenvectors, inverse participation ratios and implied volatility

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Authors: Sherif Sabri, Suzy Fawzi, Sanaa Abdelshafy, Ayman Nagah

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Introduction: Static derangements in lactate homeostasis during ICU stay have become established as a clinically useful marker of increased risk of hospital and ICU mortality. Lactate indices or kinetic alteration of the anaerobic metabolism make it a potential parameter to evaluate disease severity and intervention adequacy. This is an inexpensive and simple clinical parameter that can be obtained by a minimally invasive means. Aim of work: Comparing the predictive value of dynamic indices of hyperlactatemia in the first twenty four hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with other static values are more commonly used. Patients and Methods: This study included 40 critically ill patients above 18 years old of both sexes with Hyperlactamia (≥ 2 m mol/L). Patients were divided into septic group (n=20) and low oxygen transport group (n=20), which include all causes of low-O2. Six lactate indices specifically relating to the first 24 hours of ICU admission were considered, three static indices and three dynamic indices. Results: There were no statistically significant differences among the two groups regarding age, most of the laboratory results including ABG and the need for mechanical ventilation. Admission lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group [37.5±11.4 versus 30.6±7.8 P-value 0.034]. Maximum lactate was significantly higher in low-oxygen transport group than the septic group P-value (0.044). On the other hand absolute lactate (mg) was higher in septic group P-value (< 0.001). Percentage change of lactate was higher in the septic group (47.8±11.3) than the low-oxygen transport group (26.1±12.6) with highly significant P-value (< 0.001). Lastly, time weighted lactate was higher in the low-oxygen transport group (1.72±0.81) than the septic group (1.05±0.8) with significant P-value (0.012). There were statistically significant differences regarding lactate indices in survivors and non survivors, whether in septic or low-oxygen transport group. Conclusion: In critically ill patients, time weighted lactate and percent in lactate change in the first 24 hours can be an independent predictive factor in ICU mortality. Also, a rising compared to a falling blood lactate concentration over the first 24 hours can be associated with significant increase in the risk of mortality.

Keywords: critically ill patients, lactate indices, mortality in intensive care, anaerobic metabolism

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova

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The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.

Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature

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Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

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Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

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This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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Authors: A. Nusrath Unissa, Sameer Hassan, Luke Elizabeth Hanna

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Altered drug binding may be an important factor in isoniazid (INH) resistance, rather than major changes in the enzyme’s activity as a catalase or peroxidase (KatG). The identification of structural or functional defects in the mutant KatGs responsible for INH resistance remains as an area to be explored. In this connection, the differences in the binding affinity between wild-type (WT) and mutants of KatG were investigated, through the generation of three mutants of KatG, Ser315Thr [S315T], Ser315Asn [S315N], Ser315Arg [S315R] and a WT [S315]) with the help of software-MODELLER. The mutants were docked with INH using the software-GOLD. The affinity is lower for WT than mutant, suggesting the tight binding of INH with the mutant protein compared to WT type. These models provide the in silico evidence for the binding interaction of KatG with INH and implicate the basis for rationalization of INH resistance in naturally occurring KatG mutant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Keywords: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, KatG, INH resistance, mutants, modelling, docking

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Authors: Soheil Heydari, Ailar Hajimohammadi, Nasser Khalili

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The application of plastic waste for asphalt modification is a sustainable strategy to deal with the enormous plastic waste generated each year and enhance the properties of asphalt. The modification is either practiced by the dry process or the wet process. In the dry process, plastics are added straight into the asphalt mixture, and in the wet process, they are mixed and digested into bitumen. In this article, the effects of plastic inclusion in asphalt mixture, through the dry process, on the permanent deformation of the asphalt are investigated. The main waste plastics that are usually used in asphalt modification are taken into account, which is linear, low-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, and polypropylene. Also, to simulate a plastic waste stream, different grades of each virgin plastic are mixed and used. For instance, four different grades of polypropylene are mixed and used as representative of polypropylene. A precisely designed mixing condition is considered to dry-mix the plastics into the mixture such that the polymer was melted and modified by the later introduced binder. In this mixing process, plastics are first added to the hot aggregates and mixed three times in different time intervals, then bitumen is introduced, and the whole mixture is mixed three times in fifteen minutes intervals. Marshall specimens were manufactured, and dynamic creep tests were conducted to evaluate the effects of modification on the permanent deformation of the asphalt mixture. Dynamic creep is a common repeated loading test conducted at different stress levels and temperatures. Loading cycles are applied to the AC specimen until failure occurs; with the amount of deformation constantly recorded, the cumulative, permanent strain is determined and reported as a function of the number of cycles. The results of this study showed that the dry inclusion of the waste plastics is very effective in enhancing the resistance against permanent deformation of the mixture. However, the mixing process must be precisely engineered to melt the plastics, and a homogenous mixture is achieved.

Keywords: permanent deformation, waste plastics, low-density polyethene, high-density polyethene, polypropylene, linear low-density polyethene, dry process

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Authors: Liu Jia’nan

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The default accounts hold the view that there exists a kind of scalar implicature which can be processed without context and own a psychological privilege over other scalar implicatures which depend on context. In contrast, the Relevance Theorist regards context as a must because all the scalar implicatures have to meet the need of relevance in discourse. However, in Katsos, the experimental results showed: Although quantitatively the adults rejected under-informative utterance with lexical scales (context-independent) and the ad hoc scales (context-dependent) at almost the same rate, adults still regarded the violation of utterance with lexical scales much more severe than with ad hoc scales. Neither default account nor Relevance Theory can fully explain this result. Thus, there are two questionable points to this result: (1) Is it possible that the strange discrepancy is due to other factors instead of the generation of scalar implicature? (2) Are the ad hoc scales truly formed under the possible influence from mental context? Do the participants generate scalar implicatures with ad hoc scales instead of just comparing semantic difference among target objects in the under- informative utterance? In my Experiment 1, the question (1) will be answered by repetition of Experiment 1 by Katsos. Test materials will be showed by PowerPoint in the form of pictures, and each procedure will be done under the guidance of a tester in a quiet room. Our Experiment 2 is intended to answer question (2). The test material of picture will be transformed into the literal words in DMDX and the target sentence will be showed word-by-word to participants in the soundproof room in our lab. Reading time of target parts, i.e. words containing scalar implicatures, will be recorded. We presume that in the group with lexical scale, standardized pragmatically mental context would help generate scalar implicature once the scalar word occurs, which will make the participants hope the upcoming words to be informative. Thus if the new input after scalar word is under-informative, more time will be cost for the extra semantic processing. However, in the group with ad hoc scale, scalar implicature may hardly be generated without the support from fixed mental context of scale. Thus, whether the new input is informative or not does not matter at all, and the reading time of target parts will be the same in informative and under-informative utterances. People’s mind may be a dynamic system, in which lots of factors would co-occur. If Katsos’ experimental result is reliable, will it shed light on the interplay of default accounts and context factors in scalar implicature processing? We might be able to assume, based on our experiments, that one single dominant processing paradigm may not be plausible. Furthermore, in the processing of scalar implicature, the semantic interpretation and the pragmatic interpretation may be made in a dynamic interplay in the mind. As to the lexical scale, the pragmatic reading may prevail over the semantic reading because of its greater exposure in daily language use, which may also lead the possible default or standardized paradigm override the role of context. However, those objects in ad hoc scale are not usually treated as scalar membership in mental context, and thus lexical-semantic association of the objects may prevent their pragmatic reading from generating scalar implicature. Only when the sufficient contextual factors are highlighted, can the pragmatic reading get privilege and generate scalar implicature.

Keywords: scalar implicature, ad hoc scale, dynamic interplay, default account, Mandarin Chinese processing

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Authors: Jhonnatan Eduardo Zamudio Palacios, Oscar Leonardo Mosquera Dussan, Daniel Guzman Perez, Daniel Alfonso Botero Rosas, Oscar Fabian Rubiano Espinosa, Jose Antonio Garcia Torres, Ivan Dario Chavarro, Ivan Ramiro Rodriguez Camacho, Jaime Orlando Rodriguez

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The training of cilsitas with some type of disability finds in the technological development an indispensable ally, generating every day advances to contribute to the quality of life allowing to maximize the capacities of the athletes. The performance of a cyclist depends on physiological and biomechanical factors, such as aerodynamic profile, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, pedaling systems, type of competition, among others. This study particularly focuses on the description of the dynamic model of a transtibial prosthesis for Paralympic cyclists. To make the model, two points are chosen: in the radius centers of rotation of the plate and pinion of the track bicycle. The parametric scheme of the track bike represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom due to the displacement in X - Y of each of the reference points of the angles of the curve profile β, cant of the velodrome α and the angle of rotation of the connecting rod φ. The force exerted on the crank of the bicycle varies according to the angles of the curve profile β, the velodrome cant of α and the angle of rotation of the crank φ. The behavior is analyzed through the Matlab R2015a software. The average strength that a cyclist exerts on the cranks of a bicycle is 1,607.1 N, the Paralympic cyclist must perform a force on each crank about 803.6 N. Once the maximum force associated with the movement has been determined, it is continued to the dynamic modeling of the transtibial prosthesis that represents a model of 6 degrees of freedom with displacement in X - Y in relation to the angles of rotation of the hip π, knee γ and ankle λ. Subsequently, an analysis of the kinematic behavior of the prosthesis was carried out by means of SolidWorks 2017 and Matlab R2015a, which was used to model and analyze the variation of the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the λ prosthesis. The reaction forces generated in the prosthesis were performed on the ankle of the prosthesis, performing the summation of forces on the X and Y axes. The same analysis was then applied to the tibia of the prosthesis and the socket. The reaction force of the parts of the prosthesis varies according to the hip angles π, knee γ and ankle of the prosthesis λ. Therefore, it can be deduced that the maximum forces experienced by the ankle of the prosthesis is 933.6 N on the X axis and 2.160.5 N on the Y axis. Finally, it is calculated that the maximum forces experienced by the tibia and the socket of the transtibial prosthesis in high performance competitions is 3.266 N on the X axis and 1.357 N on the Y axis. In conclusion, it can be said that the performance of the cyclist depends on several physiological factors, linked to biomechanics of training. The influence of biomechanical factors such as aerodynamics, bicycle measurements, connecting rod length, or non-circular pedaling systems on the cyclist performance.

Keywords: biomechanics, dynamic model, paralympic cyclist, transtibial prosthesis

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Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

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Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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