Search results for: asymptotic tail estimate

Authors: Syed Imran Hussain Shah

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Air pollution rapidly impacts the Earth's climate and environmental quality, causing public health nuisances and cardio-pulmonary illnesses. Air pollution is a global issue, and all population groups in all the regions in the developed and developing parts of the world were affected by it. The promise of a reduction in deaths and diseases as per SDG No. 3 is an international commitment towards sustainable development. In that context, assessing and evaluating the ambient air quality is paramount. This article estimates the air pollution released by the vehicles on roads of Lahore, a mega city having 13.98 million populations. A survey was conducted on different fuel stations to determine the estimated fuel pumped to different types of vehicles from different fuel stations. The number of fuel stations in Lahore is around 350. Another survey was also conducted to interview the drivers to know the per-litre fuel consumption of other vehicles. Therefore, a survey was conducted on 189 fuel stations and 400 drivers using a combination of random sampling and convenience sampling methods. The sampling was done in a manner to cover all areas of the city including central commercial hubs, modern housing societies, industrial zones, main highways, old traditional population centres, etc. Mathematical equations were also used to estimate the emissions from different modes of vehicles. Due to the increase in population, the number of vehicles is increasing, and consequently, traffic emissions were rising at a higher level. Motorcycles, auto rickshaws, motor cars, and vans were the main contributors to Carbon dioxide and vehicular emissions in the air. It has been observed that vehicles that use petrol fuel produce more Carbon dioxide emissions in the air. Buses and trucks were the main contributors to NOx in the air due to the use of diesel fuel. Whereas vans, buses, and trucks produce the maximum amount of SO2. PM10 and PM2.5 were mainly produced by motorcycles and motorcycle two-stroke rickshaws. Auto rickshaws and motor cars mainly produce benzene emissions. This study may act as a major tool for traffic and vehicle policy decisions to promote better fuel quality and more fuel-efficient vehicles to reduce emissions.

Keywords: particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, climate change, pollution control

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Authors: Jularat Chumnaul

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In forensic science, corpses from various homicides are different; there are both complete and incomplete, depending on causes of death or forms of homicide. For example, some corpses are cut into pieces, some are camouflaged by dumping into the river, some are buried, some are burned to destroy the evidence, and others. If the corpses are incomplete, it can lead to the difficulty of personally identifying because some tissues and bones are destroyed. To specify gender of the corpses from skeletal remains, the most precise method is DNA identification. However, this method is costly and takes longer so that other identification techniques are used instead. The first technique that is widely used is considering the features of bones. In general, an evidence from the corpses such as some pieces of bones, especially the skull and pelvis can be used to identify their gender. To use this technique, forensic scientists are required observation skills in order to classify the difference between male and female bones. Although this technique is uncomplicated, saving time and cost, and the forensic scientists can fairly accurately determine gender by using this technique (apparently an accuracy rate of 90% or more), the crucial disadvantage is there are only some positions of skeleton that can be used to specify gender such as supraorbital ridge, nuchal crest, temporal lobe, mandible, and chin. Therefore, the skeletal remains that will be used have to be complete. The other technique that is widely used for gender specifying in forensic science and archeology is skeletal measurements. The advantage of this method is it can be used in several positions in one piece of bones, and it can be used even if the bones are not complete. In this study, the classification and cluster analysis are applied to this technique, including the Kth Nearest Neighbor Classification, Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, K-mean Cluster, and Two Step Cluster. The data contains 507 particular individuals and 9 skeletal measurements (diameter measurements), and the performance of five methods are investigated by considering the apparent error rate (APER). The results from this study indicate that the Two Step Cluster and Kth Nearest Neighbor method seem to be suitable to specify gender from human skeletal remains because both yield small apparent error rate of 0.20% and 4.14%, respectively. On the other hand, the Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, and K-mean Cluster method are not appropriate since they yield large apparent error rate of 10.65%, 10.65%, and 16.37%, respectively. However, there are other ways to evaluate the performance of classification such as an estimate of the error rate using the holdout procedure or misclassification costs, and the difference methods can make the different conclusions.

Keywords: skeletal measurements, classification, cluster, apparent error rate

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Authors: Abram Zoltan

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Over the past hundred years, human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, have released enough carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to dissipate additional heat into the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate. Climate change affects many social and environmental determinants of health: clean air, safe drinking water, and adequate food. Our aim is to draw attention to the effects of climate change on the health and health care system. Improving climate awareness and the knowledge related to climate change's health impacts are essential among medical students and practicing medical doctors. Therefore, in their everyday practice, they also need some assistance and up-to-date knowledge of how climate change can endanger human health and deal with these novel health problems. Our activity, based on the cooperation of more universities, aims to develop new curriculum outlines and learning materials on climate change's health impacts for medical schools. Special attention is intended to pay to the possible preventative measures against these impacts. For all of this, the project plans to create new curriculum outlines and learning materials for medical students, elaborate methodological guidelines and create training materials for medical doctors' postgraduate learning programs. The target groups of the project are medical students, educational staff of medical schools and universities, practicing medical doctors with special attention to the general practitioners and family doctors. We had searched various surveys, domestic and international studies about the effects of climate change and statistical estimation of the possible consequences. The health effects of climate change can be measured only approximately by considering only a fraction of the potential health effects and assuming continued economic growth and health progress. We can estimate that climate change is expected to cause about 250,000 more deaths. We conclude that climate change is one of the most serious problems of the 21st century, affecting all populations. In the short- to medium-term, the health effects of climate change will be determined mainly by human vulnerability. In the longer term, the effects depend increasingly on the extent to which transformational action is taken now to reduce emissions. We can contribute to reducing environmental pollution by raising awareness and by educating the population.

Keywords: climate change, health impacts, medical students, education

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Authors: Nilima Barman, M. Atiqul Haque, Debabrata Ghosh

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Background: Zinc, one of the vital micronutrients, has an incredible role in the immune system. Hypozincemia affects host defense by reducing the number of circulating T cells and phagocytosis activity of other cells which ultimately impair cell-mediated immunity 1, 2. The immune system is detrimentally suppressed in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) 3, 4, a major threat of TB control worldwide5. As zinc deficiency causes immune suppression, we assume that it might have a role in the development of MDR-TB. Objectives: To estimate the serum zinc level in newly diagnosed multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in comparison with that of newly diagnosed pulmonary TB (NdPTB) and healthy individuals. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out in the department of Public Health and Informatics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, Dhaka in collaboration with National Institute of Diseases of the Chest Hospital (NIDCH), Bangladesh from March’ 2012 to February 2013. A total of 337 respondents, of them 107 were MDR TB patients enrolled from NIDCH, 69 were NdPTB and 161 were healthy adults. All NdPTB patients and healthy adults were randomly selected from Sirajdikhan subdistrict of Munshiganj District. It is a rural community 22 kilometer south from capital city Dhaka. Serum zinc level was estimated by atomic absorption spectrophotometry method from early morning fasting blood sample. The evaluation of serum zinc level was done according to normal range from 70 to120 µgm/dL6. Results: Males were predominant in study groups (p>0.05). Mean (sd) serum zinc levels in MDR-TB, NdPTB and healthy adult group were 65.14 (12.52), 75.22(15.89), and 87.98 (21.80) μgm/dL respectively and differences were statistically significant (F=52.08, P value<0.001). After multiple comparison test (Bonferroni test) significantly lower level of serum zinc was found in MDRTB group than NdPTB and healthy adults (p<.001). Point biserial correlation showed a negative association of having MDR TB and serum zinc level (r= -.578; p value <0.001). Conclusion: The significant low level of serum zinc in MDR-TB patients suggested impaired immune status. We recommended for further exploration of low level of serum zinc as risk factor of MDR TB.

Keywords: Bangladesh, immune status, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, serum zinc

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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Authors: Keshav Dubey, Swajeeth Panchangam, Arun Rajendran, Swarnim Gupta

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In the semiconductor capital equipment industry, effective modeling of repairable system reliability is crucial for optimizing maintenance strategies and ensuring operational efficiency. However, repairable system reliability modeling using a renewal process is not as popular in the semiconductor equipment industry as it is in the locomotive and automotive industries. Utilization of this approach will help optimize maintenance practices. This paper presents a structured framework that leverages both parametric and non-parametric approaches to model the reliability of repairable subsystems based on operational data, maintenance schedules, and system-specific conditions. Data is organized at the equipment ID level, facilitating trend testing to uncover failure patterns and system degradation over time. For non-parametric modeling, the Mean Cumulative Function (Mean Cumulative Function) approach is applied, offering a flexible method to estimate the cumulative number of failures over time without assuming an underlying statistical distribution. This allows for empirical insights into subsystem failure behavior based on historical data. On the parametric side, virtual age modeling, along with Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (Homogeneous Poisson Process and Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process) models, is employed to quantify the effect of repairs and the aging process on subsystem reliability. These models allow for a more structured analysis by characterizing repair effectiveness and system wear-out trends over time. A comparison of various Generalized Renewal Process (GRP) approaches highlights their utility in modeling different repair effectiveness scenarios. These approaches provide a robust framework for assessing the impact of maintenance actions on system performance and reliability. By integrating both parametric and non-parametric methods, this framework offers a comprehensive toolset for reliability engineers to better understand equipment behavior, assess the effectiveness of maintenance activities, and make data-driven decisions that enhance system availability and operational performance in semiconductor fabrication facilities.

Keywords: reliability, maintainability, homegenous poission process, repairable system

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Authors: Ubon Asuquo Essien, Okwudili Bismark Ibeagwa, Daberechi Peace Ubabuko

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The Broiler Poultry subsector is dominated by small scale production with low aggregate output. The high cost of inputs currently experienced in Nigeria tends to aggravate the situation; hence many broiler farmers struggle to break-even. This study was designed to examine income and input factors in small scale deep liter broiler production in Imo state, Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined; socio-economic characteristics of small scale deep liter broiler producing Poultry farmers; estimate cost and returns of broiler production in the area; analyze input factors in broiler production in the area and examined marketability, age and profitability of the enterprise. A multi-stage sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 small scale broiler farmers who use deep liter system from 6 communities through the use of structured questionnaire. The socioeconomic characteristics of the broiler farmers and the profitability/ marketability age of the birds were described using descriptive statistical tools such as frequencies, means and percentages. Gross margin analysis was used to analyze the cost and returns to broiler production, while Cobb Douglas production function was employed to analyze input factors in broiler production. The result of the study revealed that the cost of feed (P<0.1), deep liter material (P<0.05) and medication (P<0.05) had a significant positive relationship with the gross return of broiler farmers in the study area, while cost of labour, fuel and day old chicks were not significant. Furthermore, Gross profit margin of the farmers who market their broiler at the 8th week of rearing was 80.7%; and 78.7% and 60.8% for farmers who market at the 10th week and 12th week of rearing, respectively. The business is, therefore, profitable but at varying degree. Government and Development partners should make deliberate efforts to curb the current rise in the prices of poultry feeds, drugs and timber materials used as bedding so as to widen the profit margin and encourage more farmers to go into the business. The farmers equally need more technical assistance from extension agents with regards to timely and profitable marketing.

Keywords: broilers, factor analysis, income, small scale

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Authors: M. Amparo Nunez-Andres, Nieves Lantada

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One of the most harmful geological risks is rockfalls. They cause both economic lost, damaged in buildings and infrastructures, and personal ones. Therefore, in order to estimate the risk of the exposed elements, it is necessary to know the mechanism of this kind of events, since the characteristics of the rock walls, to the propagation of fragments generated by the initial detached rock mass. In the framework of the research RockModels project, several inventories of rockfalls were carried out along the northeast of the Spanish peninsula and the Mallorca island. These inventories have general information about the events, although the important fact is that they contained detailed information about fragmentation. Specifically, the IBSD (Insitu Block Size Distribution) is obtained by photogrammetry from drone or TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanner) and the RBSD (Rock Block Size Distribution) from the volume of the fragment in the deposit measured by hand. In order to share all this information with other scientists, engineers, members of civil protection, and stakeholders, it is necessary a platform accessible from the internet and following interoperable standards. In all the process, open-software have been used: PostGIS 2.1., Geoserver, and OpenLayers library. In the first step, a spatial database was implemented to manage all the information. We have used the data specifications of INSPIRE for natural risks adding specific and detailed data about fragmentation distribution. The next step was to develop a WMS with Geoserver. A previous phase was the creation of several views in PostGIS to show the information at different scales of visualization and with different degrees of detail. In the first view, the sites are identified with a point, and basic information about the rockfall event is facilitated. In the next level of zoom, at medium scale, the convex hull of the rockfall appears with its real shape and the source of the event and fragments are represented by symbols. The queries at this level offer a major detail about the movement. Eventually, the third level shows all elements: deposit, source, and blocks, in their real size, if it is possible, and in their real localization. The last task was the publication of all information in a web mapping site (www.rockdb.upc.edu) with data classified by levels using libraries in JavaScript as OpenLayers.

Keywords: geological risk, web mapping, WMS, rockfalls

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Atefeh Bagherianziarat, Dana Hamplova

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The inverse social gradient in life satisfaction (LS) is a well-established research finding. To estimate the influence of inequality on LS, most of the studies have explored the effect of the objective aspects of inequality or individuals’ socioeconomic status (SES). However, relatively fewer studies have confirmed recently the significant effect of the subjective aspect of inequality or subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) on life satisfaction over and above SES. In other words, it is confirmed by some studies that individuals’ perception of their unequal status in society or SSS can moderate the impact of their absolute unequal status on their life satisfaction. Nevertheless, this newly confirmed moderating link has not been affirmed to work likewise in societies with different levels of social inequality and also for people who believe in the value of equality, at different levels. In this study, we compared the moderative influence of subjective inequality on the link between objective inequality and life satisfaction. In particular, we focus on differences across welfare state regimes based on Esping-Andersen's theory. Also, we explored the moderative role of believing in the value of equality on the link between objective and subjective inequality on LS in the given societies. Since our studied variables were measured at both individual and country levels, we applied a multilevel analysis to the European Social Survey data (round 9). The results showed that people in deferent regimes reported statistically meaningful different levels of life satisfaction that is explained to different extends by their household income and their perception of their income inequality. The findings of the study supported the previous findings of the moderator influence of perceived inequality on the link between objective inequality and LS. However, this link is different in various welfare state regimes. The results of the multilevel modeling showed that country-level subjective equality is a positive predictor for individuals’ life satisfaction, while the GINI coefficient that was considered as the indicator of absolute inequality has a smaller effect on life satisfaction. Also, country-level subjective equality moderates the confirmed link between individuals’ income and their life satisfaction. It can be concluded that both individual and country-level subjective inequality slightly moderate the effect of individuals’ income on their life satisfaction.

Keywords: individual values, life satisfaction, multilevel analysis, objective inequality, subjective inequality, welfare regimes status

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Authors: Mahmoud Mourad, Ahmad Hamza H. Ali, S.Ookawara, Ali Kamel Abdel-Rahman, Nady M. Abdelkariem

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The energy consumption of a house can be affected simultaneously by many building design factors related to its main architectural features, building elements and materials. This study focuses on the impact of passive design factors on the annual energy consumption of a suggested prototype house for single-family detached houses of 240 m2 in two floors, each floor of 120 m2 in new Egyptian cities located in (Alexandria - Cairo - Siwa - Assuit – Aswan) which resemble five different climatic zones (Northern coast – Northern upper Egypt - dessert region- Southern upper Egypt – South Egypt) respectively. This study present the effect of the passive design factors affecting the building energy consumption as building orientation, building material (walls, roof and slabs), building type (residential, educational, commercial), building occupancy (type of occupant, no. of occupant, age), building landscape and site selection, building envelope and fenestration (glazing material, shading), and building plan form. This information can be used to estimate the approximate saving in energy consumption, which would result on a change in the design datum for the future houses development, and to identify the major design problems for energy efficiency. To achieve the above objective, this paper presents a study for the factors affecting on the building energy consumption in the hot arid area in new Egyptian cities in five different climatic zones , followed by defining the energy needs for different utilization in this suggested prototype house. Consequently, a detailed analysis of the available Renewable Energy utilizations technologies used in the suggested home, and a calculation of the energy as a function of yearly distribution that required for this home will presented. The results obtained from building annual energy analyses show that architecture passive design factors saves about 35% of the annual energy consumption. It shows also passive cooling techniques saves about 45%, and renewable energy systems saves about 40% of the annual energy needs for this proposed home depending on the cities location on the climatic zones.

Keywords: architecture passive design factors, energy efficient homes, Egypt new cites, renewable energy technologies

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Authors: Ikram Elsiddig, Yacouba Djamila, Amna Hamad

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Abstract—The worldwide increasing of using herbs in form of medicine with or without prescription medications potentiates the interactions between herbal products and conventional medicines; due to more research for herb-drug interactions are needed. for a long time hyperglycemia had been treated with several medicinal plants. A. sativum, belonging to the Liliaceae family is well known for its medicinal uses in African traditional medicine, it used for treating of many human diseases mainly diabetes, high cholesterol and high blood pressure. The purpose of this study is to determine the interaction effect between A. sativum bulb extracts and metformin drug used in diabetes treatment. The in vitro and in vivo evaluation were conducted by glucose reuptake using isolated rats hemidiaphgrams tissue and by estimate glucose tolerance in glucose-loaded wistar albino rats. The results showed that, petroleum ether, chloroform and ethyl acetate extracts were found to have activity of glucose uptake in isolated rats hemidiaphgrams of 24.11 mg/g, 19.07 mg/g and 15.66 mg/g compared to metformin drug of 17 mg/g. These activity were reducded to 17.8 mg/g, 13.59 mg/g and 14.46 mg/g after combination with metformin, metformin itself reduced to 13.59 mg/g, 14.46 mg/g and 12.71 mg/g in comination with chloroform and ethyl acetate. These decrease in activity could be due to herbal–drug interaction between the extracts of A. sativum bulb and metformin drug. The interaction between A. sativum extract and metformin was also shown by in vivo study on the induced hyperglycemic rats. The glucose level after administered of 200 mg/kg was found to be increase with 47.2 % and 17.7% at first and second hour compared to the increase of blood glucose in the control group of 82.6% and76.7%.. At fourth hour the glucose level was became less than normal with 3.4% compared to control which continue to increase with 68.2%. Dose of 400 mg/kg at first hour showed increase in blood glucose of 31.5 %, at second and fourth hours the glucose level was became less than normal with decrease of 3.2 % and 30.4%. After combination the activity was found to be less than that of extract at both high and low dose, whereas, at first and second hour, the glucose level was found to be increase with 50.4% and 21.2%, at fourth hour the glucose level was became less than normal with 14%. Therefore A. sativum could be a potential source for anti-diabetic when it used alone, and it is significant important to use the garlic extract alone instead of combined with Metformin drug in diabetes- treatment.

Keywords: Antagonistic, Garlic, Metformin, Synergistic

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Authors: B. Arzhanov, A. Correia, P. Delgado, J. Meireles

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Quad Flat No-Lead (QFN) packages have become very popular for turners, converters and audio amplifiers, among others applications, needing efficient power dissipation in small footprints. Since semiconductor junction temperature (TJ) is a critical parameter in the product quality. And to ensure that die temperature does not exceed the maximum allowable TJ, a thermal analysis conducted in an earlier development phase is essential to avoid repeated re-designs process with huge losses in cost and time. A simulation tool capable to estimate die temperature of components with QFN package was developed. Allow establish a non-empirical way to define an acceptance criterion for amount of voids in solder interface between its exposed pad and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) to be applied during industrialization process, and evaluate the impact of PCB designs parameters. Targeting PCB layout designer as an end user for the application, a user-friendly interface (GUI) was implemented allowing user to introduce design parameters in a convenient and secure way and hiding all the complexity of finite element simulation process. This cost effective tool turns transparent a simulating process and provides useful outputs after acceptable time, which can be adopted by PCB designers, preventing potential risks during the design stage and make product economically efficient by not oversizing it. This article gathers relevant information related to the design and implementation of the developed tool, presenting a parametric study conducted with it. The simulation tool was experimentally validated using a Thermal-Test-Chip (TTC) in a QFN open-cavity, in order to measure junction temperature (TJ) directly on the die under controlled and knowing conditions. Providing a short overview about standard thermal solutions and impacts in exposed pad packages (i.e. QFN), accurately describe the methods and techniques that the system designer should use to achieve optimum thermal performance, and demonstrate the effect of system-level constraints on the thermal performance of the design.

Keywords: QFN packages, exposed pads, junction temperature, thermal management and measurements

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Authors: Diogo Prosdocimi, Don Ross, Matthew Townshend

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Road authorities are mandated within limited budgets to both deliver improved access to basic services and facilitate economic growth. This responsibility is further complicated if maintenance backlogs and funding shortfalls exist, as evident in many countries including South Africa. These conditions require authorities to make difficult prioritisation decisions, with the effect that Road Asset Management Systems with a one-dimensional focus on traffic volumes may overlook the maintenance of low-volume roads that provide isolated communities with vital access to basic services. Given these challenges, this paper overlays the full South African road network with geo-referenced information for population, primary and secondary schools, and healthcare facilities to identify the network of connective roads between communities and basic service centres. This connective network is then rationalised according to the Gross Value Added and number of jobs per mesozone, administrative and functional road classifications, speed limit, and road length, location, and name to estimate the Basic Access Road Network. A two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, capturing a weighted assessment of drive-time to service centres and the ratio of people within a catchment area to teachers and healthcare workers, is subsequently applied to generate a Multivariate Road Index. This Index is used to assign higher maintenance priority to roads within the Basic Access Road Network that provide more people with better access to services. The relatively limited incidence of Basic Access Roads indicates that authorities could maintain the entire estimated network without exhausting the available road budget before practical economic considerations get any purchase. Despite this fact, a final case study modelling exercise is performed for the Namakwa District Municipality to demonstrate the extent to which optimal relocation of schools and healthcare facilities could minimise the Basic Access Road Network and thereby release budget for investment in roads that best promote GDP growth.

Keywords: basic access roads, multivariate road index, road prioritisation, two-step floating catchment area method

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Authors: Svetlana Guryeva, Inna Kornienko, Andrey Usanov, Dmitry Usanov, Elena Petersen

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Every day cells in our organism are exposed to various factors: chemical agents, reactive oxygen species, ionizing radiation, and others. These factors can cause damage to DNA, cellular membrane, intracellular compartments, and proteins. The fate of cells depends on the exposure intensity and duration. The prolonged and intense exposure causes the irreversible damage accumulation, which triggers the permanent cell cycle arrest (cellular senescence) or cell death programs. In the case of low dose of impacts, it can lead to cell renovation and to cell functional state improvement. Therefore, it is a pivotal question to investigate the factors and doses that result in described positive effects. In order to estimate the influence of different agents, the proliferation index and levels of cell death markers (annexin V/propidium iodide), senescence-associated β-galactosidase, and lipofuscin were measured. The experiments were conducted on primary human fibroblasts of the 8th passage. According to the levels of mentioned markers, these cells were defined as senescent cells. The effect of low-frequency magnetic field was investigated. Different modes of magnetic field exposure were tested. The physical agents were compared with chemical agents: metformin (10 mM) and taurine (0.8 mM and 1.6 mM). Cells were incubating with chemicals for 5 days. The highest decrease in the level of senescence-associated β-galactosidase (21%) and lipofuscin (17%) was observed in the primary senescent fibroblasts after 5 days after double treatments with 48 h intervals with low-frequency magnetic field. There were no significant changes in the proliferation index after magnetic field application. The cytotoxic effect of magnetic field was not observed. The chemical agent taurine (1.6 mM) decreased the level of senescence-associated β-galactosidase (23%) and lipofuscin (22%). Metformin improved the activity of senescence-associated β-galactosidase on 15% and the level of lipofuscin on 19% in this experiment. According to these results, the effect of double treatment with 48 h interval with low-frequency magnetic field and the effect of taurine (1.6 mM) were comparable to the effect of metformin, for which anti-aging properties are proved. In conclusion, this study can become the first step towards creation of the standardized system for the investigation of different effects on senescent cells.

Keywords: biomarkers, magnetic field, metformin, primary fibroblasts, senescence, taurine

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Authors: Rima T. Alfaraj, Murtadha J. Al Tammar, Khaqan Khan, Khalid M. Alruwaili

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OBJECTIVE/SCOPE (25-75): Caliper logging data provides critical information about wellbore shape and deformations, such as stress-induced borehole breakouts or washouts. Multiarm mechanical caliper logs are often run using wireline, which can be time-consuming, costly, and/or challenging to run in certain formations. To minimize rig time and improve operational safety, it is valuable to develop analytical solutions that can estimate caliper logs using available Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) data without the need to run wireline caliper logs. As a first step, the objective of this paper is to perform statistical analysis using an extensive datasetto identify important physical parameters that should be considered in developing such analytical solutions. METHODS, PROCEDURES, PROCESS (75-100): Caliper logs and LWD data of eleven wells, with a total of more than 80,000 data points, were obtained and imported into a data analytics software for analysis. Several parameters were selected to test the relationship of the parameters with the measured maximum and minimum caliper logs. These parameters includegamma ray, porosity, shear, and compressional sonic velocities, bulk densities, and azimuthal density. The data of the eleven wells were first visualized and cleaned.Using the analytics software, several analyses were then preformed, including the computation of Pearson’s correlation coefficients to show the statistical relationship between the selected parameters and the caliper logs. RESULTS, OBSERVATIONS, CONCLUSIONS (100-200): The results of this statistical analysis showed that some parameters show good correlation to the caliper log data. For instance, the bulk density and azimuthal directional densities showedPearson’s correlation coefficients in the range of 0.39 and 0.57, which wererelatively high when comparedto the correlation coefficients of caliper data with other parameters. Other parameters such as porosity exhibited extremely low correlation coefficients to the caliper data. Various crossplots and visualizations of the data were also demonstrated to gain further insights from the field data. NOVEL/ADDITIVE INFORMATION (25-75): This study offers a unique and novel look into the relative importance and correlation between different LWD measurements and wireline caliper logs via an extensive dataset. The results pave the way for a more informed development of new analytical solutions for estimating the size and shape of the wellbore in real-time while drilling using LWD data.

Keywords: LWD measurements, caliper log, correlations, analysis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Kyomin Lee, Joohee Kim, Sangho Kang

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The commercial nuclear power reactor in South Korea, Kori Unit 1, which was a 587 MWe pressurized water reactor that started operation since 1978, was permanently shut down in June 2017 without an additional operating license extension. The Kori 1 Unit is scheduled to become the nuclear power unit to enter the decommissioning phase. In this study, the preliminary evaluation of the decommissioning wastes for the Kori Unit 1 was performed based on the following series of process: firstly, the plant inventory is investigated based on various documents (i.e., equipment/ component list, construction records, general arrangement drawings). Secondly, the radiological conditions of systems, structures and components (SSCs) are established to estimate the amount of radioactive waste by waste classification. Third, the waste management strategies for Kori Unit 1 including waste packaging are established. Forth, selection of the proper decontamination and dismantling (D&D) technologies is made considering the various factors. Finally, the amount of decommissioning waste by classification for Kori 1 is estimated using the DeCAT program, which was developed by KEPCO-E&C for a decommissioning cost estimation. The preliminary evaluation results have shown that the expected amounts of decommissioning wastes were less than about 2% and 8% of the total wastes generated (i.e., sum of clean wastes and radwastes) before/after waste processing, respectively, and it was found that the majority of contaminated material was carbon or alloy steel and stainless steel. In addition, within the range of availability of information, the results of the evaluation were compared with the results from the various decommissioning experiences data or international/national decommissioning study. The comparison results have shown that the radioactive waste amount from Kori Unit 1 decommissioning were much less than those from the plants decommissioned in U.S. and were comparable to those from the plants in Europe. This result comes from the difference of disposal cost and clearance criteria (i.e., free release level) between U.S. and non-U.S. The preliminary evaluation performed using the methodology established in this study will be useful as a important information in establishing the decommissioning planning for the decommissioning schedule and waste management strategy establishment including the transportation, packaging, handling, and disposal of radioactive wastes.

Keywords: characterization, classification, decommissioning, decontamination and dismantling, Kori 1, radioactive waste

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Authors: Saeed Qaisrani

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The study was conducted to observe carbon and nutrient loss by burning of rice residues on rice-wheat cropping system The rice crop was harvested to conduct the experiment in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with factors and 4 replications with a net plot size of 10 m x 20 m. Rice stubbles were managed by two methods i.e. Incorporation & burning of rice residues. Soil samples were taken to a depth of 30 cm before sowing & after harvesting of wheat. Wheat was sown after harvesting of rice by three practices i.e. Conventional tillage, Minimum tillage and Zero tillage to observe best tillage practices. Laboratory and field experiments were conducted on wheat to assess best tillage practice and residues management method with estimation of carbon losses. Data on the following parameters; establishment count, plant height, spike length, number of grains per spike, biological yield, fat content, carbohydrate content, protein content, and harvest index were recorded to check wheat quality & ensuring food security in the region. Soil physico-chemical analysis i.e. pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and carbon were done in soil fertility laboratory. Substantial results were found on growth, yield and related parameters of wheat crop. The collected data were examined statistically with economic analysis to estimate the cost-benefit ratio of using different tillage techniques and residue management practices. Obtained results depicted that Zero tillage method have positive impacts on growth, yield and quality of wheat, Moreover, it is cost effective methodology. Similarly, Incorporation is suitable and beneficial method for soil due to more nutrients provision and reduce the need of fertilizers. Burning of rice stubbles has negative impact including air pollution, nutrient loss, microbes died and carbon loss. Recommended the zero tillage technology to reduce carbon losses along with food security in Pakistan.

Keywords: agricultural agronomy, food security, carbon sequestration, rice-wheat cropping system

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Gaoyang Meng, Philip Harrison

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When manufacturing composite laminates, the fibre directions within the laminate are never perfectly straight and inevitably contain some degree of stochastic in-plane waviness or ‘meandering’. In this work we aim to understand the relationship between the degree of meandering of the fibre paths, and the resulting uncertainty in the laminate’s final mechanical properties. To do this, a numerical tool is developed to automatically generate meandering fibre paths in each of the laminate's 8 plies (using Matlab) and after mapping this information into finite element simulations (using Abaqus), the statistical variability of the tensile mechanical properties of a [45°/90°/-45°/0°]s carbon/epoxy (IM7/8552) laminate is predicted. The stiffness, first ply failure strength and ultimate failure strength are obtained. Results are generated by inputting the degree of variability in the fibre paths and the laminate is then examined in all directions (from 0° to 359° in increments of 1°). The resulting predictions are output as flower (polar) plots for convenient analysis. The average fibre orientation of each ply in a given laminate is determined by the laminate layup code [45°/90°/-45°/0°]s. However, in each case, the plies contain increasingly large amounts of in-plane waviness (quantified by the standard deviation of the fibre direction in each ply across the laminate. Four different amounts of variability in the fibre direction are tested (2°, 4°, 6° and 8°). Results show that both the average tensile stiffness and the average tensile strength decrease, while the standard deviations increase, with an increasing degree of fibre meander. The variability in stiffness is found to be relatively insensitive to the rotation angle, but the variability in strength is sensitive. Specifically, the uncertainty in laminate strength is relatively low at orientations centred around multiples of 45° rotation angle, and relatively high between these rotation angles. To concisely represent all the information contained in the various polar plots, rotation-angle dependent Weibull distribution equations are fitted to the data. The resulting equations can be used to quickly estimate the size of the errors bars for the different mechanical properties, resulting from the amount of fibre directional variability contained within the laminate. A longer term goal is to use these equations to quickly introduce realistic variability at the component level.

Keywords: advanced composite laminates, FE simulation, in-plane waviness, tensile properties, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Ayman Mutahar Alrassas, Shaoran Ren, Renyuan Ren, Hung Vo Thanh, Mohammed Hail Hakimi, Zhenliang Guan

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The significant effect of CO₂ on global climate and the environment has gained more concern worldwide. Enhance oil recovery (EOR) associated with sequestration of CO₂ particularly into the depleted oil reservoir is considered the viable approach under financial limitations since it improves the oil recovery from the existing oil reservoir and boosts the relation between global-scale of CO₂ capture and geological sequestration. Consequently, practical measurements are required to attain large-scale CO₂ emission reduction. This paper presents an integrated modeling workflow to construct an accurate 3D reservoir geological model to estimate the storage capacity of CO₂ under geological uncertainty in an unconventional oil reservoir of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es1) in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield, China. In this regard, geophysical data, including well logs of twenty-two well locations and seismic data, were combined with geological and engineering data and used to construct a 3D reservoir geological modeling. The geological modeling focused on four tight reservoir units of the Shahejie Formation (Es1-x1, Es1-x2, Es1-x3, and Es1-x4). The validated 3D reservoir models were subsequently used to calculate the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield. Well logs were utilized to predict petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability, and lithofacies and indicate that the Es1 reservoir units are mainly sandstone, shale, and limestone with a proportion of 38.09%, 32.42%, and 29.49, respectively. Well log-based petrophysical results also show that the Es1 reservoir units generally exhibit 2–36% porosity, 0.017 mD to 974.8 mD permeability, and moderate to good net to gross ratios. These estimated values of porosity, permeability, lithofacies, and net to gross were up-scaled and distributed laterally using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and Simulation Sequential Indicator (SIS) methods to generate 3D reservoir geological models. The reservoir geological models show there are lateral heterogeneities of the reservoir properties and lithofacies, and the best reservoir rocks exist in the Es1-x4, Es1-x3, and Es1-x2 units, respectively. In addition, the reservoir volumetric of the Es1 units in block Nv32 was also estimated based on the petrophysical property models and fund to be between 0.554368

Keywords: CO₂ storage capacity, 3D geological model, geological uncertainty, unconventional oil reservoir, block Nv32

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Erick R. Bandala, Kebret Kebede, Nicole Johnson, Rebecca Murray, Destiny Green, John Mejia, Polioptro Martinez-Austria

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Summertemperature data from Clark County was collected and used to estimate two different heat-related indexes: the heat index (HI) and excess heat factor (EHF). These two indexes were used jointly with data of health-related deaths in Clark County to assess the effect of extreme heat on the exposed population. The trends of the heat indexes were then analyzed for the 2007-2016 decadeandthe correlation between heat wave episodes and the number of heat-related deaths in the area was estimated. The HI showed that this value has increased significantly in June, July, and August over the last ten years. The same trend was found for the EHF, which showed a clear increase in the severity and number of these events per year. The number of heat wave episodes increased from 1.4 per year during the 1980-2016 period to 1.66 per yearduring the 2007-2016 period. However, a different trend was found for heat-wave-event duration, which decreasedfrom an average of 20.4 days during the trans-decadal period (1980-2016) to 18.1 days during the most recent decade(2007-2016). The number of heat-related deaths was also found to increase from 2007 to 2016, with 2016 with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Both HI and the number of deaths showeda normal-like distribution for June, July, and August, with the peak values reached in late July and early August. The average maximum HI values better correlated with the number of deaths registered in Clark County than the EHF, probably because HI uses the maximum temperature and humidity in its estimation,whereas EHF uses the average medium temperature. However, it is worth testing the EHF of the study zone because it was reported to fit properly in the case of heat-related morbidity. For the overall period, 437 heat-related deaths were registered in Clark County, with 20% of the deaths occurring in June, 52% occurring in July, 18% occurring in August,and the remaining 10% occurring in the other months of the year. The most vulnerable subpopulation was people over 50 years old, for which 76% of the heat-related deaths were registered.Most of the cases were associated with heart disease preconditions. The second most vulnerable subpopulation was young adults (20-50), which accounted for 23% of the heat-related deaths. These deathswere associated with alcoholic/illegal drug intoxication.

Keywords: heat, health, hazards, workforce

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Authors: Elham Azimzadeh, Saeedeh Sepehri, Hamidollah Hassanlouei

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Obesity is associated with postural instability, might influence the quality of daily life, and could be considered a potential factor for falling in obese people. The fat body mass especially in the abdominal area may increase body sway. Furthermore, loss of visual feedback may induce a larger postural sway in obese people. Moreover, Muscle fatigue may impair the work capacity of the skeletal muscle and may alter joint proprioception. So, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of physical fatigue and visual feedback on body sway and strength of lower extremities in obese people. 12 obese (4 female, 8 male; BMI >30 kg/m2), and 12 normal weight (4 female, 8 male; BMI: 20-25 kg/m2) subjects aged 37- 47 years participated in this study. The postural stability test on the Biodex balance system was used to characterize postural control along the anterior-posterior (AP) and mediolateral (ML) directions in eyes open and eyes closed conditions and maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of knee extensors and flexors were measured before and after the high-intensity exhausting exercise protocol on the ergometer bike to confirm the presence of fatigue. Results indicated that the obese group demonstrated significantly greater body sway, in all indices (ML, AP, overall) compared with the normal weight group (eyes open). However, when visual feedback was eliminated, fatigue impaired the balance in the overall and AP indicators in both groups; ML sway was higher only in the obese group after exerting the fatigue in the eyes closed condition. Also, maximal voluntary contraction of knee extensors was impaired in the fatigued normal group but, there was no significant impairment in knee flexors MVC in both group. According to the findings, peripheral fatigue was associated with altered postural control in upright standing when eyes were closed, and that mechanoreceptors of the feet may be less able to estimate the position of the body COM over the base of support in the loss of visual feedback. This suggests that the overall capability of the postural control system during upright standing especially in the ML direction could be lower due to fatigue in obese individuals and could be a predictor of future falls.

Keywords: maximal voluntary contraction, obesity, peripheral fatigue, postural control, visual feedback

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: A. K. Faizah, G. Vadamalai, S. K. Balasundram, W. L. Lim

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Pineapple (Ananas comosus) is a common crop in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Malaysia once ranked as one of the top 3 pineapple producers in the world in the 60's and early 70's, after Hawaii and Brazil. Moreover, government’s recognition of the pineapple crop as one of priority commodities to be developed for the domestics and international markets in the National Agriculture Policy. However, pineapple industry in Malaysia still faces numerous challenges, one of which is the management of disease and pest. Red tip disease on pineapple was first recognized about 20 years ago in a commercial pineapple stand located in Simpang Renggam, Johor, Peninsular Malaysia. Since its discovery, there has been no confirmation on its causal agent of this disease. The epidemiology of red tip disease is still not fully understood. Nevertheless, the disease symptoms and the spread within the field seem to point toward viral infection. Bioassay test on nucleic acid extracted from the red tip-affected pineapple was done on Nicotiana tabacum cv. Coker by rubbing the extracted sap. Localised lesions were observed 3 weeks after inoculation. Negative staining of the fresh inoculated Nicotiana tabacum cv. Coker showed the presence of membrane-bound spherical particles with an average diameter of 94.25nm under transmission electron microscope. The shape and size of the particles were similar to tospovirus. SDS-PAGE analysis of partial purified virions from inoculated N. tabacum produced a strong and a faint protein bands with molecular mass of approximately 29 kDa and 55 kDa. Partial purified virions of symptomatic pineapple leaves from field showed bands with molecular mass of approximately 29 kDa, 39 kDa and 55kDa. These bands may indicate the nucleocapsid protein identity of tospovirus. Furthermore, a handheld sensor, Greenseeker, was used to detect red tip symptoms on pineapple non-destructively based on spectral reflectance, measured as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Red tip severity was estimated and correlated with NDVI. Linear regression models were calibrated and tested developed in order to estimate red tip disease severity based on NDVI. Results showed a strong positive relationship between red tip disease severity and NDVI (r= 0.84).

Keywords: pineapple, diagnosis, virus, NDVI

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Geetha Jayapathy, Lakshmi Muthukrishnan, Manoj Kumar Reddy Pulim , Radhika Raman

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Introduction: Ketones are the end products of fatty acid metabolism and a source of energy for vital organs such as the brain, heart and skeletal muscles. Ketones are produced in excess when glucose is not available as a source of energy or it cannot be utilized as in diabetic ketoacidosis. Children admitted in the emergency department often have starvation ketosis which is not clinically manifested. Decision on admission of children to the emergency room with subtle signs can be difficult at times. Point of care blood ketone testing can be done at the bedside even in a primary level care setting to supplement and guide us in our management decisions. Hence this study was done to explore the utility of this simple bedside parameter as a supplement in assessing pediatric patients presenting to the emergency department. Objectives: To estimate blood ketones of children admitted in the emergency department. To analyze the significance of blood ketones in various disease conditions. Methods: Blood ketones using point of care testing instrument (ABOTTprecision Xceed Pro meters) was done in patients getting admitted in emergency room and in out-patients (through sample collection centre). Study population: Children aged 1 month to 18 years were included in the study. 250 cases (In-patients) and 250 controls (out-patients) were collected. Study design: Prospective observational study. Data on details of illness and physiological status were documented. Blood ketones were compared between the two groups and all in patients were categorized into various system groups and analysed. Results: Mean blood ketones were high in in-patients ranging from 0 to 7.2, with a mean of 1.28 compared to out-patients ranging from 0 to 1.9 with a mean of 0.35. This difference was statistically significant with a p value < 0.001. In-patients with shock (mean of 4.15) and diarrheal dehydration (mean of 1.85) had a significantly higher blood ketone values compared to patients with other system involvement. Conclusion: Blood ketones were significantly high (above the normal range) in pediatric patients who are sick requiring admission. Patients with various forms of shock had very high blood ketone values as found in diabetic ketoacidosis. Ketone values in diarrheal dehydration were moderately high correlating to the degree of dehydration.

Keywords: admission, blood ketones, paediatric emergencies, point of care testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Malik Abid Hussain Khokhar, Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Muhammad Amin

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Energy demand has been increased manifold due to increasing population, urban sprawl and rapid socio-economic improvements. Low water capacity in dams for continuation of hydrological power, land cover and land use are the key parameters which are creating problems for more energy production. Overall installed hydropower capacity of Pakistan is more than 35000 MW whereas Pakistan is producing up to 17000 MW and the requirement is more than 22000 that is resulting shortfall of 5000 - 7000 MW. Therefore, there is a dire need to develop small hydropower to fulfill the up-coming requirements. In this regards, excessive rainfall, snow nurtured fast flowing perennial tributaries and streams in northern mountain regions of Pakistan offer a gigantic scope of hydropower potential throughout the year. Rivers flowing in KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) province, GB (Gilgit Baltistan) and AJK (Azad Jammu & Kashmir) possess sufficient water availability for rapid energy growth. In the backdrop of such scenario, small hydropower plants are believed very suitable measures for more green environment and power sustainable option for the development of such regions. Aim of this study is to estimate hydropower potential sites for small hydropower plants and stream distribution as per steam network available in the available basins in the study area. The proposed methodology will focus on features to meet the objectives i.e. site selection of maximum hydropower potential for hydroelectric generation using well emerging GIS tool SWAT as hydrological run-off model on the Neelum, Kunhar and the Dor Rivers’ basins. For validation of the results, NDWI will be computed to show water concentration in the study area while overlaying on geospatial enhanced DEM. This study will represent analysis of basins, watershed, stream links, and flow directions with slope elevation for hydropower potential to produce increasing demand of electricity by installing small hydropower stations. Later on, this study will be benefitted for other adjacent regions for further estimation of site selection for installation of such small power plants as well.

Keywords: energy, stream network, basins, SWAT, evapotranspiration

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Authors: Agnieszka Nowogrodzka

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Objectives: ADHD is a neurodevelopmental disorder in which symptoms are most prominent throughout childhood. In the longer term, these symptoms, as well as the behaviour of the child, the experiences arising from the response of the community to the child's symptoms, as well as the functioning of the community itself, all contribute to the onset of secondary symptoms and subsequent outcomes of the disorder, such as crime or mental disorders. The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence of ADHD among Polish convicts serving a prison sentence. To that end, the study will focus on the relationship between the severity of ADHD and early childhood trauma, family relations, maladaptive cognitive schemas, as well as mental disorders. It is an attempt to assess the interdependence between ADHD, childhood experiences, and secondary outcomes. Methods: The study enrolled two groups of first-time convicts and repeat offenders aged between 21 and 65 –each of the study groups comprised 120 participants; 240 participants in total took part in the study. Participants were recruited in semi-open penal institutions in Poland (Poznań Custody Suite, Wronki Penal Institution, Iława Penal Institution). The control group comprised 110 men without criminal records aged 21 to 65. The DIVA 5.0 questionnaire was employed to identify the severity of ADHD symptoms. Other questionnaires employed in the course of the study included the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), The Family Adaptability and Cohesion Scale IV (FACES-IV), Young Schema Questionnaire (YSQ), and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-30). Results: The findings of the study in question are currently still being compiled and will be shared during the conference. The findings of a pilot study involving two cohorts of convicts (each numbering 20 men) and a control group (20 men with no criminal records) indicate a significant correlation between ADHD and the experience of early childhood trauma. The severity of ADHD also shows a correlation with the assessment of the functioning of the family, with the subjects assessing the relationships in their families more negatively than the control group. Furthermore, the severity of ADHD is also correlated with maladaptive emotional schemas manifesting in the participants. The findings also show a correlation between selected dimensions and the severity of offenses.

Keywords: ADHD, social impairments, mental disorders, early childhood traumas, criminality

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Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 74