Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: Fredrick Etyang

Abstract:

This paper presents a Rapid Industrialization Model (RIM) designed to support existing industrialization policies, strategies and industrial development plans at National, Regional and Constituent level in Africa. The model will reinforce efforts to attainment of inclusive and sustainable industrialization of Africa by state and non-state actors. The overall objective of this model is to serve as a framework for rapid industrialization in developing economies and the specific objectives range from supporting rapid industrialization development to promoting a structural change in the economy, a balanced regional industrial growth, achievement of local, regional and international competitiveness in areas of clear comparative advantage in industrial exports and ultimately, the RIM will serve as a step-by-step guideline for the industrialization of African Economies. This model is a product of a scientific research process underpinned by desk research through the review of African countries development plans, strategies, datasets, industrialization efforts and consultation with key informants. The rigorous research process unearthed multi-directional and renewed efforts towards industrialization of Africa premised on collective commitment of individual states, regional economic communities and the African union commission among other strategic stakeholders. It was further, established that the inputs into industrialization of Africa outshine the levels of industrial development on the continent. The RIM comes in handy to serve as step-by-step framework for African countries to follow in their industrial development efforts of transforming inputs into tangible outputs and outcomes in the short, intermediate and long-run. This model postulates three stages of industrialization and three phases toward rapid industrialization of African economies, the model is simple to understand, easily implementable and contextualizable with high return on investment for each unit invested into industrialization supported by the model. Therefore, effective implementation of the model will result into inclusive and sustainable rapid industrialization of Africa.

Keywords: economic development, industrialization, economic efficiency, exports and imports

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Samindi Samarakoon, Ørjan Sletbakk Vie, Remi Kleiven Fjelldal

Abstract:

White concrete facade elements are widely used in construction industry. It is challenging to achieve the desired workability in casting of white concrete elements. Particle Matrix model was used for proportioning the self-compacting white concrete (SCWC) to control segregation and bleeding and to improve workability. The paper presents how to reach the target slump flow while controlling bleeding and segregation in SCWC. The amount of aggregates, binders and mixing water, as well as type and dosage of superplasticizer (SP) to be used are the major factors influencing the properties of SCWC. Slump flow and compressive strength tests were carried out to examine the performance of SCWC, and the results indicate that the particle matrix model could produce successfully SCWC controlling segregation and bleeding.

Keywords: white concrete, particle matrix model, mix design, construction industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: M. Khalid, W. Rashmi, L. L. Kwan

Abstract:

This work provides an overview on the experimental and numerical simulations of various nanofluids and their flow and heat transfer behavior. It was further extended to study the effect of nanoparticle concentration, fluid flow rates and thermo-physical properties on the heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3/water nanofluid in a turbulent flow circular conduit using ANSYS FLUENT™ 14.0. Single-phase approximation (homogeneous model) and two-phase (mixture and Eulerian) models were used to simulate the nanofluid flow behavior in the 3-D horizontal pipe. The numerical results were further validated with experimental correlations reported in the literature. It was found that heat transfer of nanofluids increases with increasing particle volume concentration and Reynolds number, respectively. Results showed good agreement (~9% deviation) with the experimental correlations, especially for a single-phase model with constant properties. Among two-phase models, mixture model (~14% deviation) showed better prediction compared to Eulerian-dispersed model (~18% deviation) when temperature independent properties were used. Non-drag forces were also employed in the Eulerian two-phase model. However, the two-phase mixture model with temperature dependent nanofluid properties gave slightly closer agreement (~12% deviation).

Keywords: nanofluid, CFD, heat transfer, forced convection, circular conduit

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

Abstract:

In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

Abstract:

The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

Abstract:

Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Dipti Govil, Nidhi Khosla

Abstract:

Couple-level reports of contraception are important as wives and husbands may give different reports about contraceptive use. Using matched couple-data (N=62910), from India's NFHS–IV (2015-16), this paper examines concordance in spousal reports of current contraceptive use and its differentials. Reporting of contraceptive use was higher among wives (59%) than husbands (25%). Concordance was low; 16.5% of couples reported the use of the same method, while 21% reported the use of any method. There existed a huge denial from husbands on the use of female sterilization. Reconstruction of contraceptive use among men increased concordance by 10%. Multivariate analysis shows that concordance was low in urban and Southern India, among younger women and women with lower wealth-index. Men's control over household decision-making and negative attitudes towards contraception were associated with a lower concordance. Findings highlight the importance of using couple-level data to estimate contraceptive prevalence, the role of education programs to inculcate positive attitudes towards contraception, fostering gender equality, and involving men into family planning efforts. The results also raise the issue of data quality as the questions were asked differently from men and women, which might have contributed to wide discordance.

Keywords: concordance, contraceptive use, couple, female sterilisation, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Nitin Ghule, S. G. Taji

Abstract:

A mathematical model of hot-wall condensers used in refrigerators is presented. The model predicts the heat transfer characteristics of condenser and the effects of various design and operating parameters on condenser tube length and capacity. A finite element approach was used to model the condenser. The condenser tube is divided into elemental units, with each element consisting of adhesive tape, refrigerant tube and outer metal sheet. The heat transfer characteristics of each section are then analyzed by considering the heat transfer through the tube wall, tape and the outer sheet. Variations in inner heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are considered depending on temperature, fluid phase, type of flow and orientation of tube. Variation in outer heat transfer coefficient is also taken into account. Various materials were analysed for the tube, tape and outer sheet.

Keywords: condenser, domestic refrigerator, heat transfer, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Moslem Hossain, Mukesh Kumar, K. C. Das

Abstract:

Background: Household headship is the crucial decision-maker as well as the economic provider of the household. In Indian society, household heads occupied by men from the pre-colonial period. This study attempt to examine the changes in household headship in India. Methods: The study used univariate and multivariate analysis to examine the trends and patterns of different characteristics of the household head using the various rounds of national family health survey data. Results: The female household head is gradually increasing; on the other hand, the male-dominant is decreasing over the four national family and health surveys. The mean age of the household head is higher in rural areas than urban India. Only ten percentage of Households are higher educated, and 83 percent of the male household head has a low standard of living. The mean family size of the household has a decreasing trend in both the urban and rural areas during the study period. Conclusions: The result indicates that women's autonomy is increasing and leading to inclusive growth, which introduced in the eleven five year plan, especially focuses on the woman and young people in the country.

Keywords: household head, national family health survey, mean age, mean family size

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Rim Sghiri, Samia Al Shouli, Hana Benhassine, Nejla Elamri, Zahid Shakoor, Foued Slama, Adel Almogren, Hala Zeglaoui, Elyes Bouajina, Ramzi Zemni

Abstract:

Objectives: Little is known about genes predisposing to systemic bone loss (SBL) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Therefore, we examined the association between SBL and a variant of CD40 gene, which is known to play a critical role in both immune response and bone homeostasis among patients with RA. Methods: CD40 rs48104850 was genotyped in 176 adult RA patients. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Results: Low BMD was observed in 116 (65.9%) patients. Among them, 60 (34.1%) had low femoral neck (FN) Z score, 72 (40.9%) had low total femur (TF) Z score, and 105 (59.6%) had low lumbar spine (LS) Z score. CD40 rs4810485 was found to be associated with reduced TF Z score with the CD40 rs4810485 T allele protecting against reduced TF Z score (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.23-0.68, p = 0.0005). This association was confirmed in the multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR=0.31, 95% CI= 0.16-0.59, p=3.84 x 10₋₄). Moreover, median FN BMD was reduced among RA patients with CD40 rs4810485 GG genotype compared to RA patients harbouring CD40 rs4810485 TT and GT genotypes (0.788± 0.136 versus 0.826± 0.146g/cm², p=0.001). Conclusion: This study, for the first time ever, demonstrated an association between a CD40 genetic variant and SBL among patients with RA.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, CD40 gene, bone mineral density, systemic bone loss, rs48104850

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.

Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Jan Barak, Karel Frana, Joerg Stiller

Abstract:

This work presents results of moist air condensation in heat exchanger. It describes theoretical knowledge and definition of moist air. Model with geometry of square canal was created for better understanding and post processing of condensation phenomena. Different approaches were examined on this model to find suitable software and model. Obtained knowledge was applied to geometry of real heat exchanger and results from experiment were compared with numerical results. One of the goals is to solve this issue without creating any user defined function in the applied code. It also contains summary of knowledge and outlook for future work.

Keywords: condensation, exchanger, experiment, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: Ali Abbas

Abstract:

This paper presents a descriptive model of organizational misconduct based on observed patterns that occur before and after an ethical collapse. The patterns were classified by categorizing media articles in both "for-profit" and "not-for-profit" organizations. Based on the model parameters, the paper provides a descriptive model of various organizational deflection strategies under numerous scenarios, including situations where ethical complaints build-up, situations under which whistleblowers become more prevalent, situations where large scandals that relate to leadership occur, and strategies by which organizations deflect blame when pressure builds up or when media finds out. The model parameters start with the premise of a tolerance to double standards in unethical acts when conducted by leadership or by members of corporate governance. Following this premise, the model explains how organizations engage in discursive strategies to cover up the potential conflicts that arise, including secret agreements and weakening stakeholders who may oppose the organizational acts. Deflection strategies include "preemptive" and "post-complaint" secret agreements, absence of (or vague) documented procedures, engaging in blame and scapegoating, remaining silent on complaints until the media finds out, as well as being slow (if at all) to acknowledge misconduct and fast to cover it up. The results of this paper may be used to guide organizational leaders into the implications of such shortsighted strategies toward unethical acts, even if they are deemed legal. Validation of the model assumptions through numerous media articles is provided.

Keywords: ethical decision making, prediction, scandals, organizational strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Gwenyth C. Eichfeld

Abstract:

Variation in global COVID-19 spread is partly explained by social and behavioral factors. Many of these behaviors are linked to genetics. The short polymorphism of the 5-HTTLPR promoter region of the SLC6A4 gene is linked to collectivism. The seven-repeat polymorphism of the DRD4 gene is linked to risk-taking, migration, sensation-seeking, and impulsivity. Fewer CAG repeats in the androgen receptor gene are linked to impulsivity. This study investigates an association between the country-level frequency of these variants and early Covid-19 spread. Results of regression analysis indicate a significant association between increased country-wide prevalence of the short allele of the SLC6A4 gene and decreased COVID-19 spread when other factors that have been linked to COVID-19 are controlled for. Additionally, results show that the short allele of the SLC6A4 gene is associated with COVID-19 spread through GDP and percent urbanization rather than collectivism. Results showed no significant association between the frequency of the DRD4 polymorphism nor the androgen receptor polymorphism with early COVID-19 spread.

Keywords: neuroscience, genetics, population sciences, Covid-19

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Mamadou Diop, Florence Crick, Momadou Sow, Kate Elizabeth Gannon

Abstract:

Understanding SME leaders’ responses to climate is essential to cope with ongoing changes in temperature and rainfall. This study analyzes the response of SME leaders to the adverse effects of climate change in semi-arid lands (SAL) in Senegal. Based on surveys administrated to 161 SME leaders, this research shows that 91% of economic units are affected by climatic conditions, although 70% do not have a plan to deal with climate risks. Economic actors have striven to take measures to adapt. However, their efforts are limited by various obstacles accentuated by a lack of support from public authorities. In doing so, substantial political, institutional and financial efforts at national and local levels are needed to promote an enabling environment for economic actors to adapt. This will focus on information and training about the threats and opportunities related to global warming, the creation of an adaptation support fund to support local initiatives and the improvement of the institutional, regulatory and political framework.

Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, climate change, adaptation, semi-arid lands

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Ahmet Karakuş, Akif Can Kilic, Emre Alptekin

Abstract:

A growing number of studies have been conducted to determine how well-being may be predicted using well-designed models. It is necessary to investigate the backgrounds of features in order to construct a viable Subjective Well-Being (SWB) model. We have picked the suitable variables from the literature on SWB that are acceptable for real-world data instructions. The goal of this work is to evaluate the model by feeding it with SWB characteristics and then categorizing the stress levels using machine learning methods to see how well it performs on a real dataset. Despite the fact that it is a multiclass classification issue, we have achieved significant metric scores, which may be taken into account for a specific task.

Keywords: machine learning, multiclassification problem, subjective well-being, perceived stress scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Fehmi Bouguezzi

Abstract:

This paper studies optimal licensing regimes in a linear Hotelling model where firms are located at the end points of the city and where the transportation cost is not linear but quadratic. We study for that a more general cost function and we try to compare the findings with the results of the linear cost. We find the same optimal licensing regimes. A per unit royalty is optimal when innovation is not drastic and no licensing is better when innovation is drastic. We also find that no licensing is always better than fixed fee licensing.

Keywords: Hotelling model, technology transfer, patent licensing, quadratic transportation cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

Abstract:

Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 557

Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

Abstract:

To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: Anwar U. Haque, Waqar Asrar, Ashraf Ali Omar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffer Sayed Mohamed Ali

Abstract:

Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low-Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of the overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angles of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, the plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficient, the overall trend has under-predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.

Keywords: wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 469

Authors: Jatupon Em-Udom, Nirand Pisutha-Arnond

Abstract:

The phase-field-crystal, PFC, approach is a density-functional-type material model with an atomic resolution on a diffusive timescale. Spatially, the model incorporates periodic nature of crystal lattices and can naturally exhibit elasticity, plasticity and crystal defects such as grain boundaries and dislocations. Temporally, the model operates on a diffusive timescale which bypasses the need to resolve prohibitively small atomic-vibration time steps. The PFC model has been used to study many material phenomena such as grain growth, elastic and plastic deformations and solid-solid phase transformations. In this study, the pressure-controlled dynamic equation for the PFC model was developed to simulate a single-component system under externally applied pressure; these coupled equations are important for studies of deformable systems such as those under constant pressure. The formulation is based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics and the thermodynamics of crystalline solids. To obtain the equations, the entropy variation around the equilibrium point was derived. Then the resulting driving forces and flux around the equilibrium were obtained and rewritten as conventional thermodynamic quantities. These dynamics equations are different from the recently-proposed equations; the equations in this study should provide more rigorous descriptions of the system dynamics under externally applied pressure.

Keywords: driving forces and flux, evolution equation, non equilibrium thermodynamics, Onsager’s reciprocal relation, phase field crystal model, thermodynamics of single-component solid

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Xuan Tran

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.

Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas

Procedia PDF Downloads 22

Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed

Abstract:

In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.

Keywords: strain rate jump tests, volume strain, high density polyethylene, large strain, thermodynamics approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.

Keywords: hiden markov model, believe desire intention, neural activation, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.

Keywords: heat/mass transfer, biodiesel, multi-component fuel, droplet

Procedia PDF Downloads 567

Authors: Yibin Qiu, Yubo Ouyang, Shihan Li, Guorui Zhang, Qi Li, Weirong Chen

Abstract:

This paper aims at exploring the impacts of high dimensional dependencies of wind speed among wind farms on probabilistic optimal power flow. To obtain the reactive power optimization faster and more accurately, a mixture vine Copula structure model combining the K-means clustering, C vine copula and D vine copula is proposed in this paper, through which a more accurate correlation model can be obtained. Moreover, a Modified Backtracking Search Algorithm (MBSA), the three-point estimate method is applied to probabilistic optimal power flow. The validity of the mixture vine copula structure model and the MBSA are respectively tested in IEEE30 node system with measured data of 3 adjacent wind farms in a certain area, and the results indicate effectiveness of these methods.

Keywords: mixture vine copula structure model, three-point estimate method, the probability integral transform, modified backtracking search algorithm, reactive power optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: M. A. Meslem

Abstract:

For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.

Keywords: quasigeoid, gravity aomalies, covariance, GGM

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: S. Jayasinghe, R. B. N. Dissanayake

Abstract:

Optimization modelling together with the Network models and Linear Programming techniques is a powerful tool in problem solving and decision making in real world applications. This study developed a mathematical model to optimize the net profit by minimizing the transportation cost. This model focuses the transportation among decentralized production plants to a centralized distribution centre and then the distribution among island wide agencies considering the customer satisfaction as a requirement. This company produces basically 9 types of food items with 82 different varieties and 4 types of non-food items with 34 different varieties. Among 6 production plants, 4 were located near the city of Mawanella and the other 2 were located in Galewala and Anuradhapura cities which are 80 km and 150 km away from Mawanella respectively. The warehouse located in the Mawanella was the main production plant and also the only distribution plant. This plant distributes manufactured products to 39 agencies island-wide. The average values and average amount of the goods for 6 consecutive months from May 2013 to October 2013 were collected and then average demand values were calculated. The following constraints are used as the necessary requirement to satisfy the optimum condition of the model; there was one source, 39 destinations and supply and demand for all the agencies are equal. Using transport cost for a kilometer, total transport cost was calculated. Then the model was formulated using distance and flow of the distribution. Network optimization and linear programming techniques were used to originate the model while excel solver is used in solving. Results showed that company requires total transport cost of Rs. 146, 943, 034.50 to fulfil the customers’ requirement for a month. This is very much less when compared with data without using the model. Model also proved that company can reduce their transportation cost by 6% when distributing to island-wide customers. Company generally satisfies their customers’ requirements by 85%. This satisfaction can be increased up to 97% by using this model. Therefore this model can be used by other similar companies in order to reduce the transportation cost.

Keywords: mathematical model, network optimization, linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 346