Search results for: initiation period

Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Maria da Gloria Guara-Tavares

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This article reports a synthesis of the research in Brazilian Sign Language conducted from 2000 to 2017. The objective of the synthesis was to identify the most researched areas and the most used methodologies. Articles published in three Brazilian journals of Translation Studies, unpublished dissertations and theses were included in the analysis. Abstracts and the method sections of the papers were scrutinized. Sixty studies were analyzed, and overall results indicate that the research in Brazilian Sign Language has been fragmented in several areas such as linguistic aspects, facial expressions, subtitling, identity issues, bilingualism, and interpretation strategies. Concerning research methods, the synthesis reveals that most research is qualitative in nature. Moreover, results show that the cognitive aspects of Brazilian Sign Language seem to be poorly explored. Implications for a future research agenda are also discussed.

Keywords: Brazilian sign language, qualitative methods, research agenda, synthesis

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Authors: Hassan Medaghri Alaoui

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The accounting and financial reporting system in use today is over 500 years old and has failed to capture the new knowledge and innovation economy in which intangible assets are becoming increasingly valuable. Yet, there has been a growing acknowledgment among the research community as to the relevance of intellectual capital as a major enhancer of an organization’s well-being. Much of the research provides great support for how the IC is instrumental in determining financial and stock performances. As far as we know, this article is one of the earliest exploratory attempts to examine the intellectual capital impact on the corporate performance of the IT sector in Morocco. The purpose of this study is to verify empirically the influence of intellectual capital on firm performance. We have undertaken, over a fifteen-year period, a longitudinal (2005–2019) case study of a prominent payment-solutions company based in a developing economy with global operations.

Keywords: intellectual capital, IT sector, measuring intellectual capital, modified value added intellectual capital coefficient, Morocco

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Authors: Ramadan Ahmed Abugeddida

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Libya is one of the third world countries, has a lot of natural resources, notably oil and gas, as well as attractive tourist sites, in addition to the vast area and diversity of the regions, oil is the main source of income in Libya, which was discovered in the sixties of the last century, which also contributed to the creation of some fundamental changes in the country's infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, airports, seaports, as well as factories. This paper focuses on airports as one of the most vital institutions in the country, linking the country to the outside world, where dealing with the current situation of airports, in terms of capabilities and infrastructure, as well as the level of services, in other words, to assess the current status of the airports and to identify strengths and weaknesses, as well as general description of the position and what can be done in the future for the advancement of this vital sector. This paper is a part of the doctoral thesis will be carried out by the researcher during the coming period entitled efficiency improvement through implementation of strategic quality management.

Keywords: airports, efficiency improvement, quality, strategy

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Authors: Rafia Akbar

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This paper assesses different Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs) and their impact on energy consumption and carbon footprint of an educational building located in Islamabad. A base case was first developed in accordance with typical construction practices in Pakistan. Several EEMs were separately applied to the baseline design to quantify their impact on operational energy reduction of the building and the resultant carbon emissions. Results indicate that by applying these measures, there is a potential to reduce energy consumption up to 49% as compared to the base case. It was observed that energy efficient ceiling fans and lights, insulation of the walls and roof and an efficient air conditioning system for the building can provide significant energy savings. The results further indicate that the initial investment cost of these energy efficiency measures can be recovered within 6 to 7 years of building’s service life.

Keywords: CO2 savings, educational building, energy efficiency measures, payback period

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Authors: Loujaina Abdelwahed

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Debt relief granted to low-and middle-income countries effectively provides additional funds for governments that can be used to increase public investment on poverty-reducing services to alleviate poverty and boost economic growth. However, little is known about the extent to which the poor benefit from the increased public investment. This study aims to assess the impact of debt relief granted through multiple initiatives during the 1990s on poverty reduction. In particular, it assesses the impact on the level, depth and severity of poverty in 76 low-and middle income countries over the period 1990-2011. Debt relief is found to have a significant impact on reducing the level, the depth and the severity of poverty. Analysis of the different types of debt relief reveals that debt service relief reduces poverty, whereas debt principle relief does not have a significant impact.

Keywords: debt relief, developing countries, HIPC, poverty, system GMM estimator

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Authors: Min Koo Choi

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The paper will examine Im Sun-dŭk’s two short stories, 'Iryoil' (Sunday, 1937) and 'Nazuoya' (A Godmother, 1942), which illuminate the subjects of Korean intellectuals going through the later period of a harsh and oppressive Japanese colonial rule. When Japan went to war against China in 1937, Korea, a colony of Japan since 1910, became an outpost for Japanese expansionism into China, and the Korean people were mobilized into the war effort. Nationalist movements and radical ideas that posed a threat and opposition to Japanese colonial rule in Korea and its colonial expansionism were ruthlessly suppressed, and Koreans were forcibly assimilated into becoming Japanese citizens without political rights. Racial discrimination between Koreans and Japanese was prevalent. Im Sun-dŭk, who participated in the Socialist movement in the 1930s, had his debut as a literary writer and a critic in the late 1930s, when Korean literary society was reincorporated in order to collaborate with the Japanese war effort through writing and public speech. Sun-duk's writing illuminates the unique internal landscape of a female subject who strives to live on while preserving her commitment and dignity under the circumstances that force Korean intellectuals either to collaborate with or acquiesce to Japanese colonial rule. 'Iryoil' (Sunday, 1937) foregrounds an educated intellectual, Hyeyŏng, who supplies her fiancé in prison for political involvement in resistance against Japan. On Sundays, she turns down her friends’ suggestion for enjoying holidays outside, due to her indebtedness to her fiancé. Her fiancé's imprisonment indicates the social conscience that still remains, and she seeks to share the commitment and suffering with her fiancé. The short story 'Nazuoya' (A Godmother, 1942), written in Japanese due to the suppression of Korean language publications at the time, also problematizes Japanese policy that forces Koreans to change their names into Japanese. Through the narrator I, who struggles to find a meaningful name for her cousin brother’s baby, she highlights how meaningful one’s name is for one’s life and identity. What makes her two stories unique is that her writing draws other people’s confessions into its own narrative through fragmentary forms, such as part of letter or reflection. The voices of others are intersected with the main character in 'Iryoil' (Sunday, 1937) and a narrator in 'Nazuoya' (A Godmother, 1942). In many ways, the narrator and main character provide the confessional voices who display the characters' gloomy interiorities. Even though these confessional voices do not share the commitment and values, both the main character and I in the stories reveal a more open set of viewpoints to them. In this way, they seek to form bonds and encouragement and acquire a more resilient sensibility that embraces those who strive to survive and endure in the gloomy days of the later period of Japanese colonial rule.

Keywords: Im Sun-dŭk, Japanese colonial rule, Korean literature, socialist movement

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Authors: Annette Davies

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This paper examines a collection of four fan letters written by two fans to the early film star, Lillian Gish. The letters were sent to Gish between 1929 and 1962 and were later archived at the New York Library of Performing Arts in Manhattan, New York. This paper also analyzes the media's portrayal of Gish during the time period of these written letters in order to identify parallels between the portrayal of Gish in the media and the perception of Gish by her fans, which is espoused in these fan letters. The media analyzed includes newspapers, fan magazines, Paine's 1932 biography Life and Lillian Gish, a film publicity poster for Gish's film Intolerance, and the film roles performed by Gish. Several parallels are found and assessed using the four processes of audience involvement with a media persona-transportation, parasocial interaction, identification, and worship.

Keywords: celebrity, congruency, fan, persona

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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Authors: Alison L. Miles

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Almost all major financial institutions in the world suffered losses due to the financial crisis of 2007, but the extent varied widely. The causes of the crash of 2007 are well documented and predominately focus on the role and complexity of the financial markets. The dominant theme of the literature suggests the causes of the crash were a combination of globalization, financial sector innovation, moribund regulation and short termism. While these arguments are undoubtedly true, they do not tell the whole story. A key weakness in the current analysis is the lack of consideration of those leading the banks pre and during times of crisis. This purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between the leadership styles and characteristics of the CEO, CFO and chairman and the financial institutions that failed or needed recapitalization. As such, it contributes to the literature and debate on international financial crises and systemic risk and also to the debate on risk management and regulatory reform in the banking sector. In order to first test the proposition (p1) that there are prevalent leadership characteristics or traits in financial institutions, an initial study was conducted using a sample of the top 65 largest global banks and financial institutions according to the Banker Top 1000 banks 2014. Secondary data from publically available and official documents, annual reports, treasury and parliamentary reports together with a selection of press articles and analyst meeting transcripts was collected longitudinally from the period 1998 to 2013. A computer aided key word search was used in order to identify the leadership styles and characteristics of the chairman, CEO and CFO. The results were then compared with the leadership models to form a picture of leadership in the sector during the research period. As this resulted in separate results that needed combining, SPSS data editor was used to aggregate the results across the studies using the variables ‘leadership style’ and ‘company financial performance’ together with the size of the company. In order to test the proposition (p2) that there was a prevalent leadership style in the banks that failed and the proposition (P3) that this was different to those that did not, further quantitative analysis was carried out on the leadership styles of the chair, CEO and CFO of banks that needed recapitalization, were taken over, or required government bail-out assistance during 2007-8. These included: Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Barclays, Northern Rock, Fortis and Allied Irish. The findings show that although regulatory reform has been a key mechanism of control of behavior in the banking sector, consideration of the leadership characteristics of those running the board are a key factor. They add weight to the argument that if each crisis is met with the same pattern of popular fury with the financier, increased regulation, followed by back to business as usual, the cycle of failure will always be repeated and show that through a different lens, new paradigms can be formed and future clashes avoided.

Keywords: banking, financial crisis, leadership, risk

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Authors: Abhishek Mangal, Kunal Tongaria, S. Mandal, Devendra Mohan

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Carbonation of reinforced concrete structures has emerged as one of the major challenges for Civil engineers across the world. With increasing emissions from various activities, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been eve rising, enhancing its penetration in porous concrete, reaching steel bars and ultimately leading to premature failure. Several literatures have been published dealing with the various interdependent variables related to carbonation. However, with innumerable variability a generalization of these data proves to be a troublesome task. This paper looks into this carbonation anomaly in concrete structures caused by various external variables such as relative humidity, concentration of CO2, curing period and ambient temperature. Significant discussions and comparisons have been presented on the basis of various studies conducted with an aim to predict the depth of carbonation as a function of these multidimensional parameters using various numerical and statistical modelling techniques.

Keywords: carbonation, curing, exposure conditions, relative humidity

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Authors: Moletsane Makgotso, Mogakabe Elijah, Marrengane Zinhle

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South Africa’s water resources quality is becoming more and more weakened by eutrophication, which deteriorates its usability. Thirty five percent of fresh water resources are eutrophic to hypertrophic, including grossly-enriched reservoirs that go beyond the globally-accepted definition of hypertrophy. Failing infrastructure adds to the problem of contaminated urban runoff which encompasses an important fraction of flows to inland reservoirs, particularly in the non-coastal, economic heartland of the country. Eutrophication threatens the provision of potable and irrigation water in the country because of the dependence on fresh water resources. Eutrophicated water reservoirs increase water treatment costs, leads to unsuitability for recreational purposes and health risks to human and animal livelihood due to algal proliferation. Eutrophication is caused by high concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen in water bodies. In South Africa, Microsystis and Anabaena are widely distributed cyanobacteria, with Microcystis being the most dominant bloom-forming cyanobacterial species associated with toxin production. Two impoundments were selected, namely the Klipvoor and Leeukraal dams as they are mainly used for fishing, recreational, agricultural and to some extent, potable water purposes. The total oxidized nitrogen and total phosphorus concentration were determined as causative nutrients for eutrophication. Chlorophyll a and total microcystins, as well as the identification of cyanobacteria was conducted as indicators of cyanobacterial infestation. The orthophosphate concentration was determined by subjecting the samples to digestion and filtration followed by spectrophotometric analysis of total phosphates and dissolved phosphates using Aquakem kits. The total oxidized nitrates analysis was conducted by initially conducting filtration followed by spectrophotometric analysis. Chlorophyll a was quantified spectrophotometrically by measuring the absorbance of before and after acidification. Microcystins were detected using the Quantiplate Microcystin Kit, as well as microscopic identification of cyanobacterial species. The Klipvoor dam was found to be hypertrophic throughout the study period as the mean Chlorophyll a concentration was 269.4µg/l which exceeds the mean value for the hypertrophic state. The mean Total Phosphorus concentration was >0.130mg/l, and the total microcystin concentration was > 2.5µg/l throughout the study. The most predominant algal species were found to be the Microcystis. The Leeukraal dam was found to be mesotrophic with the potential of it becoming eutrophic as the mean concentration for chlorophyll a was 18.49 µg/l with the mean Total Phosphorus > 0.130mg/l and the Total Microcystin concentration < 0.16µg/l. The cyanobacterial species identified in Leeukraal have been classified as those that do not pose a potential risk to any impoundment. Microcystis was present throughout the sampling period and dominant during the warmer seasons. The high nutrient concentrations led to the dominance of Microcystis that resulted in high levels of microcystins rendering the impoundments, particularly Klipvoor undesirable for utilisation.

Keywords: nitrogen, phosphorus, cyanobacteria, microcystins

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Authors: Hui-Chieh Li

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Circular economy promotes greater resource productivity and avoids pollution through greater recycling and re-use which bring benefits for both the environment and the economy. The concept is contrast to a linear economy which is ‘take, make, dispose’ model of production. A well-design reverse logistics service strategy could enhance the willingness of recycling of the users and reduce the related logistics cost as well as carbon emissions. Moreover, the recycle brings the manufacturers most advantages as it targets components for closed-loop reuse, essentially converting materials and components from worn-out product into inputs for new ones at right time and right place. This study considers demand-supply interaction, time-dependent recycle demand, time-dependent surplus value of recycled product and constructs models on recycle service strategy for the recyclable waste collector. A crucial factor in optimizing a recycle service strategy is consumer demand. The study considers the relationships between consumer demand towards recycle and product characteristics, surplus value and user behavior. The study proposes a recycle service strategy which differs significantly from the conventional and typical uniform service strategy. Periods with considerable demand and large surplus product value suggest frequent and short service cycle. The study explores how to determine a recycle service strategy for recyclable waste collector in terms of service cycle frequency and duration and vehicle type for all service cycles by considering surplus value of recycled product, time-dependent demand, transportation economies and demand-supply interaction. The recyclable waste collector is responsible for the collection of waste product for the manufacturer. The study also examines the impacts of utilization rate on the cost and profit in the context of different sizes of vehicles. The model applies mathematical programming methods and attempts to maximize the total profit of the distributor during the study period. This study applies the binary logit model, analytical model and mathematical programming methods to the problem. The model specifically explores how to determine a recycle service strategy for the recycler by considering product surplus value, time-dependent recycle demand, transportation economies and demand-supply interaction. The model applies mathematical programming methods and attempts to minimize the total logistics cost of the recycler and maximize the recycle benefits of the manufacturer during the study period. The study relaxes the constant demand assumption and examines how service strategy affects consumer demand towards waste recycling. Results of the study not only help understanding how the user demand for recycle service and product surplus value affects the logistics cost and manufacturer’s benefits, but also provide guidance such as award bonus and carbon emission regulations for the government.

Keywords: circular economy, consumer demand, product surplus value, recycle service strategy

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Authors: Mohamed Abd Elfattah Ibraheem Elghrbawy

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Icons are a significant group of cultural heritage objects that deserve to be maintained and conserved, as these ions are performed according to religious standards and norms. The ideal structure of icons is five strata, the lower layer is a wood plate, and the upper layer is the varnish layer that is exposed to photo-oxidation, that is turned into a fragile yellow layer. In addition, the components of the icons are important in dating these ions, so X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), and Scanning Electron Microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX) patterns were used. SEM-EDX pattern revealed that the red pigment was vermillion (HgS), that was used in the late period, with a slight difference from the synthesized pigment. Pigments were subjected to chromatic alteration due to different agents, such as microbial agents and pollutants, in particular SO₂, whereas the pigment-based pigments are more sensitive. Moreover, cleaning, varnish removal, and retouching are important processes in the conservation of icons.

Keywords: conservation, cultural heritage, Egyptian icon, pigments

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Authors: Zlatina Peteva, Stanislava Georgieva, Mona Stancheva, Lubomir Makedonsky

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Yessotoxins (YTX) and pectenotoxins (PTX) are lipophilic polyether marine biotoxins that accumulate in shellfish and are regulated in the European Union. Aim of this study is investigation of the presence of YTXs and PTXs in Black Sea mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) on the North Black Sea cast of Bulgaria. YTX and PTX-2 have been identified in samples of the digestive glands of wild and cultivated samples. Mussel samples are harvested from two locations in important farming area on the Bulgarian North Black Sea coast in the period September 2016 – May 2017. Samples are analyzed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS). In about 50 % of the samples analyzed the obtained concentration of YTX ranged from 10 – 5000 pg/g hepatopancreas and PTX-2 ranged from 300-7000 pg/g hepatopancreas. This is to our knowledge the first report of occurrence of lipophilic toxins in mussels from Bulgaria.

Keywords: yessotoxins, pectenotoxins, Black sea, mussels

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Authors: S. B. R. Slagmulder

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Monitoring inspiratory effort and dynamic lung stress in patients on pressure support ventilation in the ICU is important for protecting against self inflicted lung injury (P-SILI) and diaphragm dysfunction. Strategies to address the detrimental effects of respiratory drive and effort can lead to improved patient outcomes. Two non-invasive estimation methods, occlusion pressure (Pocc) and P0.1, have been proposed for achieving lung and diaphragm protective ventilation. However, their relationship and interpretation in neuro ICU patients is not well understood. P0.1 is the airway pressure measured during a 100-millisecond occlusion of the inspiratory port. It reflects the neural drive from the respiratory centers to the diaphragm and respiratory muscles, indicating the patient's respiratory drive during the initiation of each breath. Occlusion pressure, measured during a brief inspiratory pause against a closed airway, provides information about the inspiratory muscles' strength and the system's total resistance and compliance. Research Objective: Understanding the relationship between Pocc and P0.1 in brain-injured patients can provide insights into the interpretation of these values in pressure support ventilation. This knowledge can contribute to determining extubation readiness and optimizing ventilation strategies to improve patient outcomes. The central goal is to asses a study protocol for determining the relationship between Pocc and P0.1 in brain-injured patients on pressure support ventilation and their ability to predict successful extubation. Additionally, comparing these values between brain-damaged and non-brain-damaged patients may provide valuable insights. Key Areas of Inquiry: 1. How do Pocc and P0.1 values correlate within brain injury patients undergoing pressure support ventilation? 2. To what extent can Pocc and P0.1 values serve as predictive indicators for successful extubation in patients with brain injuries? 3. What differentiates the Pocc and P0.1 values between patients with brain injuries and those without? Methodology: P0.1 and occlusion pressures are standard measurements for pressure support ventilation patients, taken by attending doctors as per protocol. We utilize electronic patient records for existing data. Unpaired T-test will be conducted to compare P0.1 and Pocc values between both study groups. Associations between P0.1 and Pocc and other study variables, such as extubation, will be explored with simple regression and correlation analysis. Depending on how the data evolve, subgroup analysis will be performed for patients with and without extubation failure. Results: While it is anticipated that neuro patients may exhibit high respiratory drive, the linkage between such elevation, quantified by P0.1, and successful extubation remains unknown The analysis will focus on determining the ability of these values to predict successful extubation and their potential impact on ventilation strategies. Conclusion: Further research is pending to fully understand the potential of these indices and their impact on mechanical ventilation in different patient populations and clinical scenarios. Understanding these relationships can aid in determining extubation readiness and tailoring ventilation strategies to improve patient outcomes in this specific patient population. Additionally, it is vital to account for the influence of sedatives, neurological scores, and BMI on respiratory drive and occlusion pressures to ensure a comprehensive analysis.

Keywords: brain damage, diaphragm dysfunction, occlusion pressure, p0.1, respiratory drive

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Authors: Rosyidah, Permata Wulandari

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We investigate the price effect of addition and deletions from the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Using event study methodology, we measure abnormal returns for firms over the period June 2019 - to December 2021. Through the sample of 107 additions and 95 deletions, we find evidence to support the theory of Muslim country investment behavior. We find that additions to the Islamic index led to a significant positive stock market reaction and deletions to the Islamic index led to a negative stock market reaction on Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and there is no significant reaction of addition and deletion on Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI).

Keywords: abnormal return, abnormal volume, event study, index changes, sharia index

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Authors: Ahmed Ouammi

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This paper presents an integrated decision framework to support decision makers in the selection and optimal allocation of wind power plants in the electric grid. The developed approach intends to maximize the benefice related to the project investment during the planning period. The proposed decision model considers the main cost components, meteorological data, environmental impacts, operation and regulation constraints, and territorial information. The decision framework is expressed as a stochastic constrained optimization problem with the aim to identify the suitable locations and related optimal wind turbine technology considering the operational constraints and maximizing the benefice. The developed decision support system is applied to a case study to demonstrate and validate its performance.

Keywords: decision support systems, electric power grid, optimization, wind energy

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Authors: Fatemeh Faramarzi, Hosein Mahjoob

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Building dams on rivers for utilization of water resources causes problems in hydrodynamic equilibrium and results in leaving all or part of the sediments carried by water in dam reservoir. This phenomenon has also significant impacts on water and sediment flow regime and in the long term can cause morphological changes in the environment surrounding the river, reducing the useful life of the reservoir which threatens sustainable development through inefficient management of water resources. In the past, empirical methods were used to predict the sedimentation amount in dam reservoirs and to estimate its efficient lifetime. But recently the mathematical and computational models are widely used in sedimentation studies in dam reservoirs as a suitable tool. These models usually solve the equations using finite element method. This study compares the results from tow software packages, GSTARS4 & HEC-6, in the prediction of the sedimentation amount in Dez dam, southern Iran. The model provides a one-dimensional, steady-state simulation of sediment deposition and erosion by solving the equations of momentum, flow and sediment continuity and sediment transport. GSTARS4 (Generalized Sediment Transport Model for Alluvial River Simulation) which is based on a one-dimensional mathematical model that simulates bed changes in both longitudinal and transverse directions by using flow tubes in a quasi-two-dimensional scheme to calibrate a period of 47 years and forecast the next 47 years of sedimentation in Dez Dam, Southern Iran. This dam is among the highest dams all over the world (with its 203 m height), and irrigates more than 125000 square hectares of downstream lands and plays a major role in flood control in the region. The input data including geometry, hydraulic and sedimentary data, starts from 1955 to 2003 on a daily basis. To predict future river discharge, in this research, the time series data were assumed to be repeated after 47 years. Finally, the obtained result was very satisfactory in the delta region so that the output from GSTARS4 was almost identical to the hydrographic profile in 2003. In the Dez dam due to the long (65 km) and a large tank, the vertical currents are dominant causing the calculations by the above-mentioned method to be inaccurate. To solve this problem, we used the empirical reduction method to calculate the sedimentation in the downstream area which led to very good answers. Thus, we demonstrated that by combining these two methods a very suitable model for sedimentation in Dez dam for the study period can be obtained. The present study demonstrated successfully that the outputs of both methods are the same.

Keywords: Dez Dam, prediction, sedimentation, water resources, computational models, finite element method, GSTARS4, HEC-6

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Authors: Shreya Thusoo, Karan Modi, Rajesh Kumar, Hitesh Madahar

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Over the years, it has been extensively established that the practice of assuming a structure being fixed at base, leads to gross errors in evaluation of its overall response due to dynamic loadings and overestimations in design. The extent of these errors depends on a number of variables; soil type being one of the major factor. This paper studies the effect of Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) on multi-storey buildings with varying under-laying soil types after proper validation of the effect of SSI. Analysis for soft, stiff and very stiff base soils has been carried out, using a powerful Finite Element Method (FEM) software package ANSYS v14.5. Results lead to some very important conclusions regarding time period, deflection and acceleration responses.

Keywords: dynamic response, multi-storey building, soil-structure interaction, varying soil types

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Authors: Paul Dallyn, Ashraf El-Hamalawi, Alessandro Palmeri, Bob Knight

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In order to better understand the long term implications of the grout wear failure mode in large-diameter plain-sided grouted connections, a numerical model has been developed and calibrated that can take advantage of existing operational plant data to predict the wear accumulation for the actual load conditions experienced over a given period, thus limiting the need for expensive monitoring systems. This model has been derived and calibrated based on site structural condition monitoring (SCM) data and supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) data for two operational wind turbine generator substructures afflicted with this challenge, along with experimentally derived wear rates.

Keywords: grouted connection, numerical model, offshore structure, wear, wind energy

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Authors: Robert Kwame Kpaliba, Dennis Kpakpor Adotey, Yaw Serfor-Armah

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Increase in the oceanic carbon dioxide absorbance from the atmosphere due to climate change has led to appreciable change in the chemistry of the oceans. The change in oceanic pH referred to as ocean acidification poses multiple threats and stresses on marine species, biodiversity, goods and services, and livelihoods. Marine ecosystems are continuously threatened by plethora of natural and anthropogenic stressors including carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions causing a lot of changes which has not been experienced for approximately 60 years. Little has been done in Africa as a whole and Ghana in particular to improve the understanding of the variations of the carbonate chemistry of seawater and the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification on security of seafood, nutrition, climate and environmental change. There is, therefore, the need for regular monitoring of carbonate chemistry of seawater along Ghana’s coastline to generate reliable data to aid marine policy formulation. Samples of seawater were collected thrice every month for a one-year period from five study sites for the various parameters to be analyzed. Analysis of the measured physico-chemical and the carbonate chemistry parameters was done using simple statistics. Correlation test and ANOVA were run on both of the physico-chemical and carbonate chemistry parameters. The carbonate chemistry parameters were measured using computer software programme (CO₂cal v4.0.9) except total alkalinity and pH. The study assessed the variability of seawater carbonate chemistry in selected portions of the Central Atlantic Coastline of Ghana (Tsokomey/Bortianor, Kokrobitey, Gomoa Nyanyanor, Gomoa Fetteh, and Senya Breku landing beaches) over a 1-year period (June 2016–May 2017). For physico-chemical parameters, there was insignificant variation in nitrate (NO₃⁻) (1.62 - 2.3 mg/L), ammonia (NH₃) (1.52 - 2.05 mg/L), and salinity (sal) (34.50 - 34.74 ppt). Carbonate chemistry parameters for all the five study sites showed significant variation: partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) (414.08-715.5 µmol/kg), carbonate ion (CO₃²⁻) (115-157.92 µmol/kg), pH (7.9-8.12), total alkalinity (TA) (1711.8-1986 µmol/kg), total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) (1512.1 - 1792 µmol/kg), dissolved carbon dioxide (CO₂aq) (10.97-18.92 µmol/kg), Revelle Factor (RF) (9.62-11.84), aragonite (ΩAr) (0.75-1.48) and calcite (ΩCa) (1.08-2.14). The study revealed that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide and temperature did not have a significant effect on each other (r² = 0.31) (p-value = 0.0717). There was an appreciable effect of pH on dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.921) (p-value = 0.0000). The variation between total alkalinity and dissolved carbon dioxide was appreciable (r² = 0.731) (p-value = 0.0008). There was a significant correlation between total carbon dioxide and dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.852) (p-value = 0.0000). Revelle factor correlated strongly with dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.982) (p-value = 0.0000). Partial pressure of carbon dioxide corresponds strongly with atmospheric carbon dioxide (r² = 0.9999) (p-value = 0.00000).

Keywords: carbonate chemistry, seawater, central atlantic coastline, Ghana, ocean acidification

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Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen

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After a period of conflict between Russia and the West, new signs of confrontation between the United States and China are observed. China, as the most populous country in the world with a high rate of economic growth, neither stands the hegemonic power of the United States nor has the intention of direct confrontation with it. By raising the costs of the United States’ leadership at the international level, China seeks to find a better status without direct confrontation with the US. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as a soft balancing strategy against the hegemony of the United States is used as a tool to reach this goal. The authors by using a descriptive-analytical method try to explain the policies of China and the United States on Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well as confrontation between these two countries within the framework of 'balance of soft power theory'.

Keywords: balance of soft power, Central Asia, Shanghai cooperation organization, terrorism

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Authors: Kim Toyer, Belinda Thompson, Louise Koelmeyer

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Lymphoedema is a chronic condition caused by dysfunction of the lymphatic system, which limits the drainage of fluid and tissue waste from the interstitial space of the affected body part. The normal physiological changes in pregnancy cause an increased load on a normal lymphatic system which can result in a transient lymphatic overload (oedema). The interaction between lymphoedema and pregnancy oedema is unclear. Women with pre-existing lymphoedema require accurate information and additional strategies to manage their lymphoedema during pregnancy. Currently, no resources are available to guide women or their healthcare providers with accurate advice and additional management strategies for coping with lymphoedema during pregnancy until they have recovered postnatally. This study explored the experiences of Australian women with pre-existing lymphoedema during recent pregnancy and the early postnatal period to determine how their usual lymphoedema management strategies were adapted and what were their additional or unmet needs. Interactions with their obstetric care providers, the hospital maternity services, and usual lymphoedema therapy services were detailed. Participants were sourced from several Australian lymphoedema community groups, including therapist networks. Opportunistic sampling is appropriate to explore this topic in a small target population as lymphoedema in women of childbearing age is uncommon, with prevalence data unavailable. Inclusion criteria were aged over 18 years, diagnosed with primary or secondary lymphoedema of the arm or leg, pregnant within the preceding ten years (since 2012), and had their pregnancy and postnatal care in Australia. Exclusion criteria were a diagnosis of lipedema and if unable to read or understand a reasonable level of English. A mixed-method qualitative design was used in two phases. This involved an online survey (REDCap platform) of the participants followed by online semi-structured interviews or focus groups to provide the transcript data for inductive thematic analysis to gain an in-depth understanding of issues raised. Women with well-managed pre-existing lymphoedema coped well with the additional oedema load of pregnancy; however, those with limited access to quality conservative care prior to pregnancy were found to be significantly impacted by pregnancy, including many reporting deterioration of their chronic lymphoedema. Misinformation and a lack of support increased fear and apprehension in planning and enjoying their pregnancy experience. Collaboration between maternity and lymphoedema therapy services did not happen despite study participants suggesting it. Helpful resources and unmet needs were identified in the recent Australian context to inform further research and the development of resources to assist women with lymphoedema who are considering or are pregnant and their supporters, including health care providers.

Keywords: lymphoedema, management strategies, pregnancy, qualitative

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Natalie Hoyer

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Usually, steel structures are designed for the upper region of the steel toughness-temperature curve. To address the reduced toughness properties in the temperature transition range, additional safety assessments based on fracture mechanics are necessary. These assessments enable the appropriate selection of steel materials to prevent brittle fracture. In this context, recommendations were established in 2011 to regulate the appropriate selection of steel grades for bridge bearing components. However, these recommendations are no longer fully aligned with more recent insights: Designing bridge bearings and their components in accordance with DIN EN 1337 and the relevant sections of DIN EN 1993 has led to an increasing trend of using large plate thicknesses, especially for long-span bridges. However, these plate thicknesses surpass the application limits specified in the national appendix of DIN EN 1993-2. Furthermore, compliance with the regulations outlined in DIN EN 1993-1-10 regarding material toughness and through-thickness properties requires some further modifications. Therefore, these standards cannot be directly applied to the material selection for bearings without additional information. In addition, recent findings indicate that certain bridge bearing components are subjected to high fatigue loads, necessitating consideration in structural design, material selection, and calculations. To address this issue, the German Center for Rail Traffic Research initiated a research project aimed at developing a proposal to enhance the existing standards. This proposal seeks to establish guidelines for the selection of steel materials for bridge bearings to prevent brittle fracture, particularly for thick plates and components exposed to specific fatigue loads. The results derived from theoretical analyses, including finite element simulations and analytical calculations, are verified through component testing on a large-scale. During these large-scale tests, where a brittle failure is deliberately induced in a bearing component, an artificially generated defect is introduced into the specimen at the predetermined hotspot. Subsequently, a dynamic load is imposed until the crack initiation process transpires, replicating realistic conditions akin to a sharp notch resembling a fatigue crack. To stop the action of the dynamic load in time, it is important to precisely determine the point at which the crack size transitions from stable crack growth to unstable crack growth. To achieve this, the potential drop measurement method is employed. The proposed paper informs about the choice of measurement method (alternating current potential drop (ACPD) or direct current potential drop (DCPD)), presents results from correlations with created FE models, and may proposes a new approach to introduce beach marks into the fracture surface within the framework of potential drop measurement.

Keywords: beach marking, bridge bearing design, brittle fracture, design for fatigue, potential drop

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Authors: Mohammad Saleh Al-Aboody

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In the present study 442 fecal samples from cattle, buffaloes, and sheep for contamination with helminthes. Samples were examined from 171 cattle, 128 buffaloes, and 143 sheep. The testing, during the period from May 2014 to April 2015, showed that 81 out of 171cattle were positive for helminthes infection (47.3%), with the rate of infection higher in females (55%) than in males (40%). In buffaloes, 41 of 128 tested were positive, a 32% rate of infection. Again, the infection rate was higher in females (47%) than in males (22%). In sheep, the rate of infection was highest of all three species. The results showed that, the infection rate among cattle were 50.3 % and Trichostrongyle species were the predominant parasites among both cattle and buffaloes. The prevalence rate was much higher in females than males. Regarding seasonal dynamics the highest infection rates with helminthes reported was in spring season.

Keywords: helminthes, prevalence, ruminants, trichostrongyle

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Authors: Worawanna Panyakotkaew, Falan Srisuriyachai

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Cyclic steam injection (CSI) is a thermal recovery technique performed by injecting periodically heated steam into heavy oil reservoir. Oil viscosity is substantially reduced by means of heat transferred from steam. Together with gas pressurization, oil recovery is greatly improved. Nevertheless, prediction of effectiveness of the process is difficult when reservoir contains degree of heterogeneity. Therefore, study of heterogeneity together with interest reservoir properties must be evaluated prior to field implementation. In this study, thermal reservoir simulation program is utilized. Reservoir model is firstly constructed as multi-layered with coarsening upward sequence. The highest permeability is located on top layer with descending of permeability values in lower layers. Steam is injected from two wells located diagonally in quarter five-spot pattern. Heavy oil is produced by adjusting operating parameters including soaking period and steam quality. After selecting the best conditions for both parameters yielding the highest oil recovery, effects of degree of heterogeneity (represented by Lorenz coefficient), vertical permeability and permeability sequence are evaluated. Surprisingly, simulation results show that reservoir heterogeneity yields benefits on CSI technique. Increasing of reservoir heterogeneity impoverishes permeability distribution. High permeability contrast results in steam intruding in upper layers. Once temperature is cool down during back flow period, condense water percolates downward, resulting in high oil saturation on top layers. Gas saturation appears on top after while, causing better propagation of steam in the following cycle due to high compressibility of gas. Large steam chamber therefore covers most of the area in upper zone. Oil recovery reaches approximately 60% which is of about 20% higher than case of heterogeneous reservoir. Vertical permeability exhibits benefits on CSI. Expansion of steam chamber occurs within shorter time from upper to lower zone. For fining upward permeability sequence where permeability values are reversed from the previous case, steam does not override to top layers due to low permeability. Propagation of steam chamber occurs in middle of reservoir where permeability is high enough. Rate of oil recovery is slower compared to coarsening upward case due to lower permeability at the location where propagation of steam chamber occurs. Even CSI technique produces oil quite slowly in early cycles, once steam chamber is formed deep in the reservoir, heat is delivered to formation quickly in latter cycles. Since reservoir heterogeneity is unavoidable, a thorough understanding of its effect must be considered. This study shows that CSI technique might be one of the compatible solutions for highly heterogeneous reservoir. This competitive technique also shows benefit in terms of heat consumption as steam is injected periodically.

Keywords: cyclic steam injection, heterogeneity, reservoir simulation, thermal recovery

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Authors: Burcu Guvenek, Duygu Baysal Kurt

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The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been discussed since the Classical Economists. Today, foreign trade has become more important for the country's economy with the increasing globalization. When it comes to foreign trade, policies which may vary from country to country and from time to time as protectionism or free trade are implemented. In general, the positive effect of foreign trade on economic growth is alleged. However, as studies supporting this general acceptance take place in the economics literature, there are also studies in the opposite direction. In this paper, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth will be investigated with the help of panel data analysis. For this research, 24 OECD countries’ GDP and foreign trade data, including the period of 1990 and 2010, will be used.

Keywords: foreign trade, economic growth, OECD countries, panel data analysis

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Authors: Arushi S. Goyal, Jo Aggarwal, Ravi Jasuja

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Statement of the Problem: Vapes have always been marketed as safer alternatives to traditional cigarettes; however, research suggests that perceived safety of e-cigarettes use may be overstated. While the addictive properties of nicotine have garnered significant scientific interest, the adverse effects of ‘inert’ ingredients in vapes are being investigated only recently. Seemingly harmless components in vapes such as propylene glycol have been shown to damage astrocytes and oligodendrocytes, and certain flavorings are causatively associated with neuroinflammation. With ease of concealment and varied aromas, vape usage amongst high school students continues unabated in countries like India, which have instituted comprehensive bans on e-cigarettes. With overt government ban, there is paucity of public data on determinants of teenage vaping patterns and parental engagement in curbing this debilitating dependency. Additionally, the large body of peer reviewed studies on vaping have been primarily conducted in Western countries. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to examine the factors affecting the causes and attitudes towards vaping among adolescents in urban India, as well as the gaps in parental awareness. We posit that this study would lay out a reusable framework for extending the studies across conservative societies where adolescents support vaping behavior even with strong governmental policies. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Two surveys were used to collect data. Participants from eight private schools in Bangalore completed an online survey. The first survey sampled adolescents aged 14-18, while the second surveyed the parents of children in the same age group from the same schools. Informed consent was obtained from all participants, and all data collected was anonymous. Results: We find substantial discordance in self-reported vape use by the adolescents and the parents’ knowledge of their child’s exposure to vaping. Over one fifth of respondents (22.4%) reported using e-cigarettes, while only 5% of parents reported that their children used e-cigarettes. Even though over 70% of adolescents believe that vaping is addictive, only 22.8% of respondents were aware of the components, or the extent of its impact. While peer pressure is often perceived to be the enabling factor, curiosity was reported as the primary reason for the initiation. Adolescents who vape saw regulations on sales and marketing as the most effective deterrent. In contrast, parents and other students leaned on school infrastructure to intervene. There has been a significant increase in vaping and a substantial discordance between parental perceptions and adolescent vaping. Conclusion & Significance: Despite a complete ban, vapes continue to be easily accessible. The data suggests that an open discussion about the adverse health consequences of untested, “seemingly inert” ingredients in these unregulated vape liquids would galvanize the student community by demystifying vaping. While increased regulation against the sale of vapes deters open use, increased parental involvement could enable open dialog with children and assist in reducing the prevalence of vaping. A reduction in vaping could have a considerable impact on the health and educational outcomes for the youth of India.

Keywords: adolescent, e-cigarettes, health consequences, India, parental awareness, vapes

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