Search results for: Receiver-operating characteristic curve
628 Shedding Light on the Black Box: Explaining Deep Neural Network Prediction of Clinical Outcome
Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler
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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model
Procedia PDF Downloads 153627 Comparison of Cervical Length Using Transvaginal Ultrasonography and Bishop Score to Predict Succesful Induction
Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum
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Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography
Procedia PDF Downloads 325626 Development of Adsorbents for Removal of Hydrogen Sulfide and Ammonia Using Pyrolytic Carbon Black form Waste Tires
Authors: Yang Gon Seo, Chang-Joon Kim, Dae Hyeok Kim
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It is estimated that 1.5 billion tires are produced worldwide each year which will eventually end up as waste tires representing a major potential waste and environmental problem. Pyrolysis has been great interest in alternative treatment processes for waste tires to produce valuable oil, gas and solid products. The oil and gas products may be used directly as a fuel or a chemical feedstock. The solid produced from the pyrolysis of tires ranges typically from 30 to 45 wt% and have high carbon contents of up to 90 wt%. However, most notably the solid have high sulfur contents from 2 to 3 wt% and ash contents from 8 to 15 wt% related to the additive metals. Upgrading tire pyrolysis products to high-value products has concentrated on solid upgrading to higher quality carbon black and to activated carbon. Hydrogen sulfide and ammonia are one of the common malodorous compounds that can be found in emissions from many sewages treatment plants and industrial plants. Therefore, removing these harmful gasses from emissions is of significance in both life and industry because they can cause health problems to human and detrimental effects on the catalysts. In this work, pyrolytic carbon black from waste tires was used to develop adsorbent with good adsorption capacity for removal of hydrogen and ammonia. Pyrolytic carbon blacks were prepared by pyrolysis of waste tire chips ranged from 5 to 20 mm under the nitrogen atmosphere at 600℃ for 1 hour. Pellet-type adsorbents were prepared by a mixture of carbon black, metal oxide and sodium hydroxide or hydrochloric acid, and their adsorption capacities were estimated by using the breakthrough curve of a continuous fixed bed adsorption column at ambient condition. The adsorbent was manufactured with a mixture of carbon black, iron oxide(III), and sodium hydroxide showed the maximum working capacity of hydrogen sulfide. For ammonia, maximum working capacity was obtained by the adsorbent manufactured with a mixture of carbon black, copper oxide(II), and hydrochloric acid.Keywords: adsorbent, ammonia, pyrolytic carbon black, hydrogen sulfide, metal oxide
Procedia PDF Downloads 257625 Bilingualism: A Case Study of Assamese and Bodo Classifiers
Authors: Samhita Bharadwaj
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This is an empirical study of classifiers in Assamese and Bodo, two genetically unrelated languages of India. The objective of the paper is to address the language contact between Assamese and Bodo as reflected in classifiers. The data has been collected through fieldwork in Bodo recording narratives and folk tales and eliciting specific data from the speakers. The data for Assamese is self-produced as native speaker of the language. Assamese is the easternmost New-Indo-Aryan (henceforth NIA) language mainly spoken in the Brahmaputra valley of Assam and some other north-eastern states of India. It is the lingua franca of Assam and is creolised in the neighbouring state of Nagaland. Bodo, on the other hand, is a Tibeto-Burman (henceforth TB) language of the Bodo-Garo group. It has the highest number of speakers among the TB languages of Assam. However, compared to Assamese, it is still a lesser documented language and due to the prestige of Assamese, all the Bodo speakers are fluent bi-lingual in Assamese, though the opposite isn’t the case. With this context, classifiers, a characteristic phenomenon of TB languages, but not so much of NIA languages, presents an interesting case study on language contact caused by bilingualism. Assamese, as a result of its language contact with the TB languages which are rich in classifiers; has developed the richest classifier system among the IA languages in India. Yet, as a part of rampant borrowing of Assamese words and patterns into Bodo; Bodo is seen to borrow even Assamese classifiers into its system. This paper analyses the borrowed classifiers of Bodo and finds the route of this borrowing phenomenon in the number system of the languages. As the Bodo speakers start replacing the higher numbers from five with Assamese ones, they also choose the Assamese classifiers to attach to these numbers. Thus, the partial loss of number in Bodo as a result of language contact and bilingualism in Assamese is found to be the reason behind the borrowing of classifiers in Bodo. The significance of the study lies in exploring an interesting aspect of language contact in Assam. It is hoped that this will attract further research on bilingualism and classifiers in Assam.Keywords: Assamese, bi-lingual, Bodo, borrowing, classifier, language contact
Procedia PDF Downloads 224624 Fatigue Analysis and Life Estimation of the Helicopter Horizontal Tail under Cyclic Loading by Using Finite Element Method
Authors: Defne Uz
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Horizontal Tail of helicopter is exposed to repeated oscillatory loading generated by aerodynamic and inertial loads, and bending moments depending on operating conditions and maneuvers of the helicopter. In order to ensure that maximum stress levels do not exceed certain fatigue limit of the material and to prevent damage, a numerical analysis approach can be utilized through the Finite Element Method. Therefore, in this paper, fatigue analysis of the Horizontal Tail model is studied numerically to predict high-cycle and low-cycle fatigue life related to defined loading. The analysis estimates the stress field at stress concentration regions such as around fastener holes where the maximum principal stresses are considered for each load case. Critical element identification of the main load carrying structural components of the model with rivet holes is performed as a post-process since critical regions with high-stress values are used as an input for fatigue life calculation. Once the maximum stress is obtained at the critical element and the related mean and alternating components, it is compared with the endurance limit by applying Soderberg approach. The constant life straight line provides the limit for several combinations of mean and alternating stresses. The life calculation based on S-N (Stress-Number of Cycles) curve is also applied with fully reversed loading to determine the number of cycles corresponds to the oscillatory stress with zero means. The results determine the appropriateness of the design of the model for its fatigue strength and the number of cycles that the model can withstand for the calculated stress. The effect of correctly determining the critical rivet holes is investigated by analyzing stresses at different structural parts in the model. In the case of low life prediction, alternative design solutions are developed, and flight hours can be estimated for the fatigue safe operation of the model.Keywords: fatigue analysis, finite element method, helicopter horizontal tail, life prediction, stress concentration
Procedia PDF Downloads 147623 Effect of Biostimulants Application on Quali-Quantitative Characteristics of Cauliflower, Pepper, and Fennel Crops Under Organic and Conventional Fertilization
Authors: E. Tarantino, G. Disciglio, L. Frabboni, A. Libutti, G. Gatta, A. Gagliaridi, A. Tarantino
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Nowadays, the main goal for modern horticultural production is the increase of quality. In the recent years, the use of organic fertilizers or bio stimulants, that can be applied in agriculture in order to improve the quanti-qualitative crop yields, has encountered an increasing interest. The bio stimulants are gaining importance also for their possible use in organic and sustainable agriculture, avoiding excessive fertilizer applications. Consecutive experimental trials were carried out in Apulia region (southern Italy) on three herbaceous crops (cauliflower, pepper and fennel), grown in pots, under conventional and organic fertilization, with and without bio stimulants application, to verify the effects of several bio stimulants (Siapton®10L, Micotech L and Lysodin Alga-Fert) on quanti-qualitative yield characteristics. At the harvest, the quanti-qualitative yield characteristics of each crop were determined. All experimental data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and, when significant effects were detected, the mean values were compared using Tukey’s test. Results showed great differences of yield characteristics between conventional and organic crops, particularly highlighting a higher yield in the conventional one. Variable results were generally observed when bio stimulants were applied. In this contest no effect were noted on quantitative yield, whereas a light positive effect of bio stimulants on qualitative characteristic, related to the higher dry matter content of cauliflower and the higher soluble solid content of pepper, was observed. Moreover, an evident positive effect of bio stimulants was noted in the fennel due to the lower nitrate content. The latter results are according with most of published literature obtained on other herbaceous crops.Keywords: biostimulants, cauliflower, pepper, fennel
Procedia PDF Downloads 575622 Ramadan as a Model of Intermittent Fasting: Effects on Gut Hormones, Appetite and Body Composition in Diabetes vs. Controls
Authors: Turki J. Alharbi, Jencia Wong, Dennis Yue, Tania P. Markovic, Julie Hetherington, Ted Wu, Belinda Brooks, Radhika Seimon, Alice Gibson, Stephanie L. Silviera, Amanda Sainsbury, Tanya J. Little
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Fasting has been practiced for centuries and is incorporated into the practices of different religions including Islam, whose followers intermittently fast throughout the month of Ramadan. Thus, Ramadan presents a unique model of prolonged intermittent fasting (IF). Despite a growing body of evidence for a cardio-metabolic and endocrine benefit of IF, detailed studies of the effects of IF on these indices in type 2 diabetes are scarce. We studied 5 subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and 7 healthy controls (C) at baseline (pre), and in the last week of Ramadan (post). Fasting circulating levels of glucose, HbA1c and lipids, as well as body composition (with DXA) and resting energy expenditure (REE) were measured. Plasma gut hormone levels and appetite responses to a mixed meal were also studied. Data are means±SEM. Ramadan decreased total fat mass (-907±92 g, p=0.001) and trunk fat (-778±190 g, p=0.014) in T2DM but not in controls, without any reductions in lean mass or REE. There was a trend towards a decline in plasma FFA in both groups. Ramadan had no effect on body weight, glycemia, blood pressure, or plasma lipids in either group. In T2DM only, the area under the curve for post-meal plasma ghrelin concentrations increased after Ramadan (pre:6632±1737 vs. post:9025±2518 pg/ml.min-1, p=0.045). Despite this increase in orexigenic ghrelin, subjective appetite scores were not altered by Ramadan. Meal-induced plasma concentrations of the satiety hormone pancreatic polypeptide did not change during Ramadan, but were higher in T2DM compared to controls (post: C: 23486±6677 vs. T2DM: 62193±6880 pg/ml.min-1, p=0.003. In conclusion, Ramadan, as a model for IF appears to have more favourable effects on body composition in T2DM, without adverse effects on metabolic control or subjective appetite. These data suggest that IF may be particularly beneficial in T2DM as a nutritional intervention. Larger studies are warranted.Keywords: type 2 diabetes, obesity, intermittent fasting, appetite regulating hormones
Procedia PDF Downloads 312621 Exploring Simple Sequence Repeats within Conserved microRNA Precursors Identified from Tea Expressed Sequence Tag (EST) Database
Authors: Anjan Hazra, Nirjhar Dasgupta, Chandan Sengupta, Sauren Das
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Tea (Camellia sinensis) has received substantial attention from the scientific world time to time, not only for its commercial importance, but also for its demand to the health-conscious people across the world for its extensive use as potential sources of antioxidant supplement. These health-benefit traits primarily rely on some regulatory networks of different metabolic pathways. Development of microsatellite markers from the conserved genomic regions is being worthwhile for studying the genetic diversity of closely related species or self-pollinated species. Although several SSR markers have been reported, in tea the trait-specific Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) are yet to be identified, which can be used for marker assisted breeding technique. MicroRNAs are endogenous, noncoding, short RNAs directly involved in regulating gene expressions at the post-transcriptional level. It has been found that diversity in miRNA gene interferes the formation of its characteristic hair pin structure and the subsequent function. In the present study, the precursors of small regulatory RNAs (microRNAs) has been fished out from tea Expressed Sequence Tag (EST) database. Furthermore, the simple sequence repeat motifs within the putative miRNA precursor genes are also identified in order to experimentally validate their existence and function. It is already known that genic-SSR markers are very adept and breeder-friendly source for genetic diversity analysis. So, the potential outcome of this in-silico study would provide some novel clues in understanding the miRNA-triggered polymorphic genic expression controlling specific metabolic pathways, accountable for tea quality.Keywords: micro RNA, simple sequence repeats, tea quality, trait specific marker
Procedia PDF Downloads 313620 Internet Impulse Buying: A Study Based on Stimulus-Organism-Response Theory
Authors: Pui-Lai To, Yi-Jing Tsai
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As the advance of e-commerce technologies, the consumers buying behavior have changed. The focus on consumer buying behavior has already shifted from physical space to the cyberspace, which impulse buying is a major issue of concern. This study examines the stimulus effect of web environment on the consumer's emotional states, and in turn, affecting the urge of impulse buying based on a stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) theory. Website ambiance and website service quality are the two stimulus variables. The study also explores the effects and the moderator effects of contextual variables and individual characteristic variables on the web environment, the emotional states and the urge of impulse buying. A total of 328 valid questionnaires were collected. Structural equation modeling was used to test the research hypothesis. This study found that both website ambiance and website service quality have a positive effect on consumer emotion, which in turn positively affect the urge of impulse buying. Consumer’s trait of impulse buying has a positive effect on the urge of impulse buying. Consumer’s hedonic motivation has a positive effect on both emotion state and the urge of impulse buying. On the other hand, the study found that money available for the consumer would positively affect consumer's emotion state and time available for the consumer would negatively affect the relationship between website service quality and consumer emotion. The result of this study validates Internet impulse buying behavior based on the S-O-R theory. This study also suggests that having a good website atmosphere and service quality is important to influencing consumers’ emotion and increasing the likelihood of consumer purchasing. The study could serve as a basis for the future research regarding online consumer behavior.Keywords: emotion state, impulse buying, stimulus-organism-response, the urge of impulse buying
Procedia PDF Downloads 236619 The Investment of Islamic Education Values toward Children in the Early Age through Story-Telling Method
Authors: Abdul Rofiq Badril Rizal Muzammil
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Education is an absolute necessity for human’s life that one must fulfill for the entire life. Without education it is impossible for human to develop her/himself well. The education process is an effort to maintain a good behavior within one’s life. Good behavior will be absolutely achieved if it is taught to early-aged children. This paper focuses on how the story telling method enables teachers to make the students have the construction of good behavior and obtain the goal of national education in Indonesia. The targeted students would involve students in As-Solihin kindergarten, Salafiyah-Syafi’iyah Mumbulsari, Jember, Indonesia. Story is what early-aged children like most. Thus, it is a gorgeous chance to make story telling activity as a method to invest Islamic education values to children. This paper, however, also focuses on some deliberately important aspects which of course teachers need to consider including objectives and strategies of the method’s implementation. The teachers will be in need of knowing each student’s characteristic in the classroom so that it would enable them to select appropriate stories that fit best to early aged students. The selected stories are taken from Islamic stories that tell the life of Prophet and heroes of Islam as well as well-known persons in Islam. In addition, there will be a number of activities done in the classroom after the delivery of the story is over on purpose of leading students to have the fundamental foundation of how to build self-awareness in order they could understand better about the importance of being a well-behaved person. After reviewing relevant theories, secondary research and scholars’ opinion involved in all aspects of early-aged children behavior, the author concludes that by leveraging trusted sources, a proactive, co-operative and creative strategy, the teacher can successfully build up children’s good behavior by instilling the Islamic value toward early-aged children through story telling method.Keywords: story, Islam, children, early age
Procedia PDF Downloads 308618 Improved Wearable Monitoring and Treatment System for Parkinson’s Disease
Authors: Bulcha Belay Etana, Benny Malengier, Janarthanan Krishnamoorthy, Timothy Kwa, Lieva VanLangenhove
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Electromyography measures the electrical activity of muscles using surface electrodes or needle electrodes to monitor various disease conditions. Recent developments in the signal acquisition of electromyograms using textile electrodes facilitate wearable devices, enabling patients to monitor and control their health status outside of healthcare facilities. Here, we have developed and tested wearable textile electrodes to acquire electromyography signals from patients suffering from Parkinson’s disease and incorporated a feedback-control system to relieve muscle cramping through thermal stimulus. In brief, the textile electrodes made of stainless steel was knitted into a textile fabric as a sleeve, and their electrical characteristic, such as signal-to-noise ratio, was compared with traditional electrodes. To relieve muscle cramping, a heating element made of stainless-steel conductive yarn sewn onto cotton fabric, coupled with a vibration system, was developed. The system integrated a microcontroller and a Myoware muscle sensor to activate the heating element as well as the vibration motor when cramping occurs, and at the same time, the element gets deactivated when the muscle cramping subsides. An optimum therapeutic temperature of 35.5 °C is regulated by continuous temperature monitoring to deactivate the heating system when this threshold value is reached. The textile electrode exhibited a signal-to-noise ratio of 6.38dB, comparable to that of the traditional electrode’s value of 7.05 dB. For a given 9 V power supply, the rise time was about 6 minutes for the developed heating element to reach an optimum temperature.Keywords: smart textile system, wearable electronic textile, electromyography, heating textile, vibration therapy, Parkinson’s disease
Procedia PDF Downloads 108617 Investigation of the Jupiter’s Galilean Moons
Authors: Revaz Chigladze
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The purpose of the research is to investigate the surfaces of Jupiter's Galilean moons, namely which moon has the most uniform surface among them, what is the difference between the front (in the direction of motion) and the back sides of each moon's surface, as well as the temporal variations of the moons. Since 1981, the E. Kharadze National Astrophysical Observatory of Georgia has been conducting polarimetric (P) and photometric (M) observations of Jupiter's Galilean moons with telescopes of different diameters (40 cm and 125 cm) and the polarimeter ASEP-78 in combination with them and the latest generation photometer with a polarimeter and modern light receiver SBIG. As it turns out from the analysis of the observed material, the parameters P and M depend on α-the phase angle of the moon (satellite), L- the orbital latitude of the moon (satellite), λ- the wavelength, and t - the period of observation, i.e., P = P (α, L, λ , t), and similarly M = M (α, L, λ. , t). Based on the analysis of the observed material, the following was studied: Jupiter's Galilean moons: dependence of the magnitude and phase angle of the degree of linear polarization for different wavelengths; Dependence of the degree of polarization and the orbital longitude; dependence between the magnitude of the degree of polarization and the wavelength; time dependence of the degree of polarization and the dependence between photometric and polarimetric characteristics (including establishing correlation). From the analysis of the obtained results, we get: The magnitude of the degree of polarization of Jupiter's Galilean moons near the opposition significantly differs from zero. Europa appears to have the most uniform surface, and Callisto the least uniform. Time variations are most characteristic of Io, which confirms the presence of volcanic activity on its surface. Based on the observed material, it can be seen that the intensity of light reflected from the front hemisphere of the first three moons: Io, Europa, and Ganymede, is less than the intensity of light reflected from the rear hemisphere, and in the case of the Callisto it is the opposite. The paper provides a convincing (natural, real) explanation of this fact.Keywords: Galilean moons, polarization, degree of polarization, photometry, front and rear hemispheres
Procedia PDF Downloads 103616 Comparison of Computed Tomography Dose Index, Dose Length Product and Effective Dose Among Male and Female Patients From Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography Pancreatitis Protocol
Authors: Babina Aryal
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Background: The diagnosis of pancreatitis is generally based on clinical and laboratory findings; however, Computed Tomography (CT) is an imaging technique of choice specially Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography (CECT) shows morphological characteristic findings that allow for establishing the diagnosis of pancreatitis and determining the extent of disease severity which is done along with the administration of appropriate contrast medium. The purpose of this study was to compare Computed Tomography Dose Index (CTDI), Dose Length Product (DLP) and Effective Dose (ED) among male and female patients from Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography (CECT) Pancreatitis Protocol. Methods: This retrospective study involved data collection based on clinical/laboratory/ultrasonography diagnosis of Pancreatitis and has undergone CECT Abdomen pancreatitis protocol. data collection involved detailed information about a patient's Age and Gender, Clinical history, Individual Computed Tomography Dose Index and Dose Length Product and effective dose. Results: We have retrospectively collected dose data from 150 among which 127 were males and 23 were females. The values obtained from the display of the CT screen were measured, calculated and compared to determine whether the CTDI, DLP and ED values were similar or not. CTDI for females was more as compared to males. The differences in CTDI values for females and males were 32.2087 and 37.1609 respectively. DLP values and Effective dose for both the genders did not show significant differences. Conclusion: This study concluded that there were no more significant changes in the DLP and ED values among both the genders however we noticed that female patients had more CTDI than males.Keywords: computed tomography, contrast enhanced computed tomography, computed tomography dose index, dose length product, effective dose
Procedia PDF Downloads 118615 Paleogene Syn-Rift Play Identification in Palembang Sub-Basin, South Sumatera, Indonesia
Authors: Perdana Rakhmana Putra, Hansen Wijaya, Sri Budiyani, Muhamad Natsir, Alexis badai Samudra
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The Palembang Sub-Basin (PSB) located in southern part of South Sumatera basin (SSB) consist of half-graben complex trending N-S to NW-SE. These geometries are believe as an impact of strike-slip regime developed in Eocene-Oligocene. Generally, most of the wells in this area produced hydrocarbon from late stage of syn-rift sequences called Lower Talang Akar (LTAF) and post-rift sequences called Batu Raja Formation (BRF) and drilled to proved hydrocarbon on structural trap; three-way dip anticline, four-way dip anticline, dissected anticline, and stratigraphy trap; carbonate build-up and stratigraphic pinch out. Only a few wells reached the deeper syn-rift sequences called Lahat Formation (LAF) and Lemat Formation (LEF). The new interpretation of subsurface data was done by the tectonostratigraphy concept and focusing on syn-rift sequence. Base on seismic characteristic on basin centre, it divided into four sequences: pre-rift sequence, rift initiation, maximum rift and late rift. These sequences believed as a new exploration target on PSB mature basin. This paper will demonstrate the paleo depositional setting during Paleogene and exploration play concept of syn-rift sequence in PSB. The main play for this area consists of stratigraphic and structure play, where the stratigraphic play is Eocene-Oligocene sediment consist of LAF sandstone, LEF-Benakat formation, and LAF with pinch-out geometry. The pinch-out, lenses geometry and on-lap features can be seen on the seismic reflector and formed at the time of the syn-rift sequence. The structural play is dominated by a 3 Way Dip play related to reverse fault trap.Keywords: syn-rift, tectono-stratigraphy, exploration play, basin center play, south sumatera basin
Procedia PDF Downloads 199614 A Machine Learning Approach for Detecting and Locating Hardware Trojans
Authors: Kaiwen Zheng, Wanting Zhou, Nan Tang, Lei Li, Yuanhang He
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The integrated circuit industry has become a cornerstone of the information society, finding widespread application in areas such as industry, communication, medicine, and aerospace. However, with the increasing complexity of integrated circuits, Hardware Trojans (HTs) implanted by attackers have become a significant threat to their security. In this paper, we proposed a hardware trojan detection method for large-scale circuits. As HTs introduce physical characteristic changes such as structure, area, and power consumption as additional redundant circuits, we proposed a machine-learning-based hardware trojan detection method based on the physical characteristics of gate-level netlists. This method transforms the hardware trojan detection problem into a machine-learning binary classification problem based on physical characteristics, greatly improving detection speed. To address the problem of imbalanced data, where the number of pure circuit samples is far less than that of HTs circuit samples, we used the SMOTETomek algorithm to expand the dataset and further improve the performance of the classifier. We used three machine learning algorithms, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine, to train and validate benchmark circuits on Trust-Hub, and all achieved good results. In our case studies based on AES encryption circuits provided by trust-hub, the test results showed the effectiveness of the proposed method. To further validate the method’s effectiveness for detecting variant HTs, we designed variant HTs using open-source HTs. The proposed method can guarantee robust detection accuracy in the millisecond level detection time for IC, and FPGA design flows and has good detection performance for library variant HTs.Keywords: hardware trojans, physical properties, machine learning, hardware security
Procedia PDF Downloads 148613 Small Scale Waste to Energy Systems: Optimization of Feedstock Composition for Improved Control of Ash Sintering and Quality of Generated Syngas
Authors: Mateusz Szul, Tomasz Iluk, Aleksander Sobolewski
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Small-scale, distributed energy systems enabling cogeneration of heat and power based on gasification of sewage sludge, are considered as the most efficient and environmentally friendly ways of their treatment. However, economic aspects of such an investment are very demanding; therefore, for such a small scale sewage sludge gasification installation to be profitable, it needs to be efficient and simple at the same time. The article presents results of research on air gasification of sewage sludge in fixed bed GazEla reactor. Two of the most important aspects of the research considered the influence of the composition of sewage sludge blends with other feedstocks on properties of generated syngas and ash sintering problems occurring at the fixed bed. Different means of the fuel pretreatment and blending were proposed as a way of dealing with the above mentioned undesired characteristics. Influence of RDF (Refuse Derived Fuel) and biomasses in the fuel blends were evaluated. Ash properties were assessed based on proximate, ultimate, and ash composition analysis of the feedstock. The blends were specified based on complementary characteristics of such criteria as C content, moisture, volatile matter, Si, Al, Mg, and content of basic metals in the ash were analyzed, Obtained results were assessed with use of experimental gasification tests and laboratory ISO-procedure for analysis of ash characteristic melting temperatures. Optimal gasification process conditions were determined by energetic parameters of the generated syngas, its content of tars and lack of ash sinters within the reactor bed. Optimal results were obtained for co-gasification of herbaceous biomasses with sewage sludge where LHV (Lower Heating Value) of the obtained syngas reached a stable value of 4.0 MJ/Nm3 for air/steam gasification.Keywords: ash fusibility, gasification, piston engine, sewage sludge
Procedia PDF Downloads 197612 Studying the Effect of Different Sizes of Carbon Fiber on Locally Developed Copper Based Composites
Authors: Tahir Ahmad, Abubaker Khan, Muhammad Kamran, Muhammad Umer Manzoor, Muhammad Taqi Zahid Butt
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Metal Matrix Composites (MMC) is a class of weight efficient structural materials that are becoming popular in engineering applications especially in electronic, aerospace, aircraft, packaging and various other industries. This study focuses on the development of carbon fiber reinforced copper matrix composite. Keeping in view the vast applications of metal matrix composites,this specific material is produced for its unique mechanical and thermal properties i.e. high thermal conductivity and low coefficient of thermal expansion at elevated temperatures. The carbon fibers were not pretreated but coated with copper by electroless plating in order to increase the wettability of carbon fiber with the copper matrix. Casting is chosen as the manufacturing route for the C-Cu composite. Four different compositions of the composite were developed by varying the amount of carbon fibers by 0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 wt. % of the copper. The effect of varying carbon fiber content and sizes on the mechanical properties of the C-Cu composite is studied in this work. The tensile test was performed on the tensile specimens. The yield strength decreases with increasing fiber content while the ultimate tensile strength increases with increasing fiber content. Rockwell hardness test was also performed and the result followed the increasing trend for increasing carbon fibers and the hardness numbers are 30.2, 37.2, 39.9 and 42.5 for sample 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively. The microstructures of the specimens were also examined under the optical microscope. Wear test and SEM also done for checking characteristic of C-Cu marix composite. Through casting may be a route for the production of the C-Cu matrix composite but still powder metallurgy is better to follow as the wettability of carbon fiber with matrix, in that case, would be better.Keywords: copper based composites, mechanical properties, wear properties, microstructure
Procedia PDF Downloads 365611 Performance Evaluation and Plugging Characteristics of Controllable Self-Aggregating Colloidal Particle Profile Control Agent
Authors: Zhiguo Yang, Xiangan Yue, Minglu Shao, Yue Yang, Rongjie Yan
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It is difficult to realize deep profile control because of the small pore-throats and easy water channeling in low-permeability heterogeneous reservoir, and the traditional polymer microspheres have the contradiction between injection and plugging. In order to solve this contradiction, the controllable self-aggregating colloidal particles (CSA) containing amide groups on the surface of microspheres was prepared based on emulsion polymerization of styrene and acrylamide. The dispersed solution of CSA colloidal particles, whose particle size is much smaller than the diameter of pore-throats, was injected into the reservoir. When the microspheres migrated to the deep part of reservoir, , these CSA colloidal particles could automatically self-aggregate into large particle clusters under the action of the shielding agent and the control agent, so as to realize the plugging of the water channels. In this paper, the morphology, temperature resistance and self-aggregation properties of CSA microspheres were studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and bottle test. The results showed that CSA microspheres exhibited heterogeneous core-shell structure, good dispersion, and outstanding thermal stability. The microspheres remain regular and uniform spheres at 100℃ after aging for 35 days. With the increase of the concentration of the cations, the self-aggregation time of CSA was gradually shortened, and the influence of bivalent cations was greater than that of monovalent cations. Core flooding experiments showed that CSA polymer microspheres have good injection properties, CSA particle clusters can effective plug the water channels and migrate to the deep part of the reservoir for profile control.Keywords: heterogeneous reservoir, deep profile control, emulsion polymerization, colloidal particles, plugging characteristic
Procedia PDF Downloads 244610 The Mouth and Gastrointestinal Tract of the African Lung Fish Protopterus annectens in River Niger at Agenebode, Nigeria
Authors: Marian Agbugui
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The West African Lung fishes are fishes rich in protein and serve as an important source of food supply for man. The kind of food ingested by this group of fishes is dependent on the alimentary canal as well as the fish’s digestive processes which provide suitable modifications for maximum utilization of food taken. A study of the alimentary canal of P. annectens will expose the best information on the anatomy and histology of the fish. Samples of P. annectens were dissected to reveal the liver, pancreas and entire gut wall. Digital pictures of the mouth, jaws and the Gastrointestinal Tract (GIT) were taken. The entire gut was identified, sectioned and micro graphed. P. annectens was observed to possess a terminal mouth that opens up to 10% of its total body length, an adaptive feature to enable the fish to swallow the whole of its pry. Its dentition is made up of incisors- scissor-like teeth which also help to firmly grip, seize and tear through the skin of prey before swallowing. A short, straight and longitudinal GIT was observed in P. annectens which is known to be common feature in lungfishes, though it is thought to be a primitive characteristic similar to the lamprey. The oesophagus is short and distensible similar to other predatory and carnivorous species. Food is temporarily stored in the stomach before it is passed down into the intestine. A pyloric aperture is seen at the end of the double folded pyloric valve which leads into an intestine that makes up 75% of the whole GIT. The intestine begins at the posterior end of the pyloric aperture and winds down in six coils through the whole length intestine and ends at the cloaca. From this study it is concluded that P. annectens possess a composite GIT with organs similar to other lung fishes; it is a detritor with carnivorous abilities.Keywords: gastrointestinal tract, incisors scissor-like teeth, intestine, mucus, Protopterus annectens, serosa
Procedia PDF Downloads 153609 Nondestructive Acoustic Microcharacterisation of Gamma Irradiation Effects on Sodium Oxide Borate Glass X2Na2O-X2B2O3 by Acoustic Signature
Authors: Ibrahim Al-Suraihy, Abdellaziz Doghmane, Zahia Hadjoub
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We discuss in this work the elastic properties by using acoustic microscopes to measure Rayleigh and longitudinal wave velocities in a no radiated and radiated sodium borate glasses X2Na2O-X2B2O3 with 0 ≤ x ≤ 27 (mol %) at microscopic resolution. The acoustic material signatures were first measured, from which the characteristic surface velocities were determined.Longitudinal and shear ultrasonic velocities were measured in a different composition of sodium borate glass samples before and after irradiation with γ-rays. Results showed that the effect due to increasing sodium oxide content on the ultrasonic velocity appeared more clearly than due to γ-radiation. It was found that as Na2O composition increases, longitudinal velocities vary from 3832 to 5636 m/s in irradiated sample and it vary from 4010 to 5836 m/s in high radiated sample by 10 dose whereas shear velocities vary from 2223 to 3269 m/s in irradiated sample and it vary from 2326 m/s in low radiation to 3385 m/s in high radiated sample by 10 dose. The effect of increasing sodium oxide content on ultrasonic velocity was very clear. The increase of velocity was attributed to the gradual increase in the rigidity of glass and hence strengthening of network due to gradual change of boron atoms from the three-fold to the four-fold coordination of oxygen atoms. The ultrasonic velocities data of glass samples have been used to find the elastic modulus. It was found that ultrasonic velocity, elastic modulus and microhardness increase with increasing barium oxide content and increasing γ-radiation dose.Keywords: mechanical properties X2Na2O-X2B2O3, acoustic signature, SAW velocities, additives, gamma-radiation dose
Procedia PDF Downloads 397608 Properties of Magnesium-Based Hydrogen Storage Alloy Added with Palladium and Titanium Hydride
Authors: Jun Ying Lin, Tzu Hsiang Yen, Cha'o Kuang Chen
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Nowadays, the great majority believe that there is great potentiality in hydrogen storage alloy storing hydrogen by physical and chemical absorption. However, the hydrogen storage alloy is limited by high operation temperature. Scientists find that adding transition elements can improve the properties of hydrogen storage alloy. In this research, outstanding improvements of kinetic and thermal properties are given by the addition of Palladium and Titanium hydride to Magnesium-based hydrogen storage alloy. Magnesium-based alloy is the main material, into which TiH2 / Pd are added separately. Following that, materials are milled by a Planetary Ball Miller at 650 rpm. TGA/DSC and PCT measure the capacity, spending time and temperature of abs/des-orption. Additionally, SEM and XRD analyze the structures and components of material. It is clearly shown that Pd is beneficial to kinetic properties. 2MgH2-0.1Pd has the highest capacity of all the alloys listed, approximately 5.5 wt%. Secondly, there are not any new Ti-related compounds found from XRD analysis. Thus, TiH2, considered as the catalyst, leads to the condition of 2MgH2-TiH2 and 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd efficiently absorbing hydrogen in low temperature. 2MgH2-TiH2 can reach roughly 3.0 wt% in 82.4 minutes at 50°C and 8 minutes at 100°C, while2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd can reach 2.0 wt% in 400 minutes at 50°C and in 48 minutes at 100°C. The lowest temperature of 2MgH2-0.1Pd and 2MgH2-TiH2 is similar (320°C), otherwise the lowest temperature of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd decrease by 20°C. From XRD, it can be observed that PdTi2 and Pd3Ti are produced by mechanical alloying when adding Pd as well as TiH2 into MgH2. Due to the synergistic effects between Pd and TiH2, 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd owns the lowest dehydrogenation temperature. Furthermore, the Pressure-Composition-Temperature (PCT) curve of 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd is measured at different temperature, 370°C, 350°C, 320°C and 300°C separately. The plateau pressure is given form the PCT curves above. In accordance to different plateau pressures, enthalpy and entropy in the Van’t Hoff equation can be solved. In 2MgH2-TiH2-0.1Pd, the enthalpy is 74.9 KJ/mol and the entropy is 122.9 J/mol. Activation means that hydrogen storage alloy undergoes repeat abs/des-orpting processes. It plays an important role in the abs/des-orption. Activation shortens the abs/des-orption time because of the increase in surface area. From SEM, it is clear that the grain size and surface become smaller and rougherKeywords: hydrogen storage materials, magnesium hydride, abs-/des-orption performance, Plateau pressure
Procedia PDF Downloads 270607 Effects of Nutrient Source and Drying Methods on Physical and Phytochemical Criteria of Pot Marigold (Calendula offiCinalis L.) Flowers
Authors: Leila Tabrizi, Farnaz Dezhaboun
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In order to study the effect of plant nutrient source and different drying methods on physical and phytochemical characteristics of pot marigold (Calendula officinalis L., Asteraceae) flowers, a factorial experiment was conducted based on completely randomized design with three replications in Research Laboratory of University of Tehran in 2010. Different nutrient sources (vermicompost, municipal waste compost, cattle manure, mushroom compost and control) which were applied in a field experiment for flower production and different drying methods including microwave (300, 600 and 900 W), oven (60, 70 and 80oC) and natural-shade drying in room temperature, were tested. Criteria such as drying kinetic, antioxidant activity, total flavonoid content, total phenolic compounds and total carotenoid of flowers were evaluated. Results indicated that organic inputs as nutrient source for flowers had no significant effects on quality criteria of pot marigold except of total flavonoid content, while drying methods significantly affected phytochemical criteria. Application of microwave 300, 600 and 900 W resulted in the highest amount of total flavonoid content, total phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity, respectively, while oven drying caused the lowest amount of phytochemical criteria. Also, interaction effect of nutrient source and drying method significantly affected antioxidant activity in which the highest amount of antioxidant activity was obtained in combination of vermicompost and microwave 900 W. In addition, application of vermicompost combined with oven drying at 60oC caused the lowest amount of antioxidant activity. Based on results of drying trend, microwave drying showed a faster drying rate than those oven and natural-shade drying in which by increasing microwave power and oven temperature, time of flower drying decreased whereas slope of moisture content reduction curve showed accelerated trend.Keywords: drying kinetic, medicinal plant, organic fertilizer, phytochemical criteria
Procedia PDF Downloads 336606 Suitable Site Selection of Small Dams Using Geo-Spatial Technique: A Case Study of Dadu Tehsil, Sindh
Authors: Zahid Khalil, Saad Ul Haque, Asif Khan
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Decision making about identifying suitable sites for any project by considering different parameters is difficult. Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) can make it easy for those projects. This technology has proved to be an efficient and adequate in acquiring the desired information. In this study, GIS and MCA were employed to identify the suitable sites for small dams in Dadu Tehsil, Sindh. The GIS software is used to create all the spatial parameters for the analysis. The parameters that derived are slope, drainage density, rainfall, land use / land cover, soil groups, Curve Number (CN) and runoff index with a spatial resolution of 30m. The data used for deriving above layers include 30-meter resolution SRTM DEM, Landsat 8 imagery, and rainfall from National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and soil data from World Harmonized Soil Data (WHSD). Land use/Land cover map is derived from Landsat 8 using supervised classification. Slope, drainage network and watershed are delineated by terrain processing of DEM. The Soil Conservation Services (SCS) method is implemented to estimate the surface runoff from the rainfall. Prior to this, SCS-CN grid is developed by integrating the soil and land use/land cover raster. These layers with some technical and ecological constraints are assigned weights on the basis of suitability criteria. The pairwise comparison method, also known as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is taken into account as MCA for assigning weights on each decision element. All the parameters and group of parameters are integrated using weighted overlay in GIS environment to produce suitable sites for the Dams. The resultant layer is then classified into four classes namely, best suitable, suitable, moderate and less suitable. This study reveals a contribution to decision-making about suitable sites analysis for small dams using geospatial data with minimal amount of ground data. This suitability maps can be helpful for water resource management organizations in determination of feasible rainwater harvesting structures (RWH).Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS, AHP, RWH
Procedia PDF Downloads 389605 Efficacy of Phonological Awareness Intervention for People with Language Impairment
Authors: I. Wardana Ketut, I. Suparwa Nyoman
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This study investigated the form and characteristic of speech sound produced by three Balinese subjects who have recovered from aphasia as well as intervened their language impairment on side of linguistic and neuronal aspects of views. The failure of judging the speech sound was caused by impairment of motor cortex that indicated there were lesions in left hemispheric language zone. Sound articulation phenomena were in the forms of phonemes deletion, replacement or assimilation in individual words and meaning building for anomic aphasia. Therefore, the Balinese sound patterns were stimulated by showing pictures to the subjects and recorded to recognize what individual consonants or vowels they unclearly produced and to find out how the sound disorder occurred. The physiology of sound production by subject’s speech organs could not only show the accuracy of articulation but also any level of severity the lesion they suffered from. The subjects’ speech sounds were investigated, classified and analyzed to know how poor the lingual units were and observed to clarify weaknesses of sound characters occurred either for place or manner of articulation. Many fricative and stopped consonants were replaced by glottal or palatal sounds because the cranial nerve, such as facial, trigeminal, and hypoglossal underwent impairment after the stroke. The phonological intervention was applied through a technique called phonemic articulation drill and the examination was conducted to know any change has been obtained. The finding informed that some weak articulation turned into clearer sound and simple meaning of language has been conveyed. The hierarchy of functional parts of brain played important role of language formulation and processing. From this finding, it can be clearly emphasized that this study supports the role of right hemisphere in recovery from aphasia is associated with functional brain reorganization.Keywords: aphasia, intervention, phonology, stroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 196604 Physicochemical Properties of Pea Protein Isolate (PPI)-Starch and Soy Protein Isolate (SPI)-Starch Nanocomplexes Treated by Ultrasound at Different pH Values
Authors: Gulcin Yildiz, Hao Feng
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Soybean proteins are the most widely used and researched proteins in the food industry. Due to soy allergies among consumers, however, alternative legume proteins having similar functional properties have been studied in recent years. These alternative proteins are also expected to have a price advantage over soy proteins. One such protein that has shown good potential for food applications is pea protein. Besides the favorable functional properties of pea protein, it also contains fewer anti-nutritional substances than soy protein. However, a comparison of the physicochemical properties of pea protein isolate (PPI)-starch nanocomplexes and soy protein isolate (SPI)-starch nanocomplexes treated by ultrasound has not been well documented. This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of ultrasound treatment on the physicochemical properties of PPI-starch and SPI-starch nanocomplexes. Pea protein isolate (85% pea protein) provided by Roquette (Geneva, IL, USA) and soy protein isolate (SPI, Pro-Fam® 955) obtained from the Archer Daniels Midland Company were adjusted to different pH levels (2-12) and treated with 5 minutes of ultrasonication (100% amplitude) to form complexes with starch. The soluble protein content was determined by the Bradford method using BSA as the standard. The turbidity of the samples was measured using a spectrophotometer (Lambda 1050 UV/VIS/NIR Spectrometer, PerkinElmer, Waltham, MA, USA). The volume-weighted mean diameters (D4, 3) of the soluble proteins were determined by dynamic light scattering (DLS). The emulsifying properties of the proteins were evaluated by the emulsion stability index (ESI) and emulsion activity index (EAI). Both the soy and pea protein isolates showed a U-shaped solubility curve as a function of pH, with a high solubility above the isoelectric point and a low one below it. Increasing the pH from 2 to 12 resulted in increased solubility for both the SPI and PPI-starch complexes. The pea nanocomplexes showed greater solubility than the soy ones. The SPI-starch nanocomplexes showed better emulsifying properties determined by the emulsion stability index (ESI) and emulsion activity index (EAI) due to SPI’s high solubility and high protein content. The PPI had similar or better emulsifying properties at certain pH values than the SPI. The ultrasound treatment significantly decreased the particle sizes of both kinds of nanocomplex. For all pH levels with both proteins, the droplet sizes were found to be lower than 300 nm. The present study clearly demonstrated that applying ultrasonication under different pH conditions significantly improved the solubility and emulsify¬ing properties of the SPI and PPI. The PPI exhibited better solubility and emulsifying properties than the SPI at certain pH levelsKeywords: emulsifying properties, pea protein isolate, soy protein isolate, ultrasonication
Procedia PDF Downloads 319603 Comparison of College Students and Full-Time Employees on Emerging Adulthood Dimensions and Identity Statuses in Turkey
Authors: Ebru Ergi̇n, Funda Kutlu
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Emerging adulthood is a developmental period and the formation of identity is crucial task of emerging adults in this period. In this frame, the main aim of the study was to compare college students and full-time workers on emerging adulthood dimensions and identity statuses in relation to some demographic variables in Turkey. The participants of the study were university students studying in Ankara and the employees working full-time in Ankara and Bursa. The mean age of the sample was 20.84 (sd=1.84), ranging from 18 to 25. The measurement instruments of the study were Inventory of Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood and Extended Objective Measure of Ego Identity Status (EOMEIS-II). The participants’ data (N=313) were analyzed to test the research questions and hypotheses of the study. A series of MANOVA were performed to test the group differences for some demographic characteristics (such as: employee/student, male/female, living with family/living apart from family) on scores of emerging adulthood dimensions and identity status. The results of the MANOVAs indicated that students, females and participants who live apart from their families had higher scores on emerging adulthood dimensions. The results of the identity status scores differences depending on the demographic characteristic pointed out that there were a significant group differences for identity foreclosure identity scores between employees and students. Employees’ foreclosure identity scores were higher than students. Furthermore, the identity scores were differed significantly according to gender of the participants. Male participants had higher scores in moratorium and foreclosure identity and female participants have higher achievement identity scores than males. Also, the participants who live with their family scored higher in foreclosure identity and the participants who live apart from their family scored higher in identity achievement status.Keywords: college students, emerging adulthood, full-time employees, identity statuses
Procedia PDF Downloads 409602 Data Centers’ Temperature Profile Simulation Optimized by Finite Elements and Discretization Methods
Authors: José Alberto García Fernández, Zhimin Du, Xinqiao Jin
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Nowadays, data center industry faces strong challenges for increasing the speed and data processing capacities while at the same time is trying to keep their devices a suitable working temperature without penalizing that capacity. Consequently, the cooling systems of this kind of facilities use a large amount of energy to dissipate the heat generated inside the servers, and developing new cooling techniques or perfecting those already existing would be a great advance in this type of industry. The installation of a temperature sensor matrix distributed in the structure of each server would provide the necessary information for collecting the required data for obtaining a temperature profile instantly inside them. However, the number of temperature probes required to obtain the temperature profiles with sufficient accuracy is very high and expensive. Therefore, other less intrusive techniques are employed where each point that characterizes the server temperature profile is obtained by solving differential equations through simulation methods, simplifying data collection techniques but increasing the time to obtain results. In order to reduce these calculation times, complicated and slow computational fluid dynamics simulations are replaced by simpler and faster finite element method simulations which solve the Burgers‘ equations by backward, forward and central discretization techniques after simplifying the energy and enthalpy conservation differential equations. The discretization methods employed for solving the first and second order derivatives of the obtained Burgers‘ equation after these simplifications are the key for obtaining results with greater or lesser accuracy regardless of the characteristic truncation error.Keywords: Burgers' equations, CFD simulation, data center, discretization methods, FEM simulation, temperature profile
Procedia PDF Downloads 171601 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance
Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru
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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 132600 The Significant of Effective Leadership on Management Growth and Survival: A Case Study of Bunato Limited Company, Ring Road Ibadan
Authors: A. S. Adegoke, O. N. Popoola
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The central purpose of management in any organization is that of coordinating the efforts of people towards the achievement of its goal. Effective and productive management is the function of leadership. Leadership plays a critical role in helping groups, organizations and societies to achieve their goals. Factors considered to make leadership to be effective are intelligence, social maturity, inner motivation and achievement drives and lastly, human relations attitudes. The factors affecting leadership style and effectiveness were examined. Also, the study examined which of the various leadership style best befits an organization and discussed the ways in which the style was determined. In order to meet the objectives of this study, different types of methods of data gathering were carried out. The methods include data from primary and secondary sources. The primary sources include personal interview, personal observation, and questionnaire while data from secondary sources were derived from various books, journal write up and other documentary records. Data were collected from respondents through questionnaire, and the field research carried out through oral interview to test each of the related hypotheses. From the data analysed it was determined that 45% strongly agreed that leadership traits are inborn not acquired and 28.3% agreed that leadership traits are inborn, while 11.7% and 10% strongly disagreed and disagreed respectively and 5% were undecided. 48.4% strongly agreed, and 43.3% agreed that environmental factors determined the appropriate style of leadership to be employed while 3.3% strongly disagreed, 1.7% disagreed and 3.3% were undecided. From the study, no single style of leadership is appropriate in any situation instead of concentrating on single leadership style; leader can vary approaches depending on forces in the leaders, characteristic of the subordinates, situational forces of the organization, lastly the expectations and behaviour of superior.Keywords: hypothesis, leadership, management, organization
Procedia PDF Downloads 144599 Eosinopenia: Marker for Early Diagnosis of Enteric Fever
Authors: Swati Kapoor, Rajeev Upreti, Monica Mahajan, Abhaya Indrayan, Dinesh Srivastava
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Enteric Fever is caused by gram negative bacilli Salmonella typhi and paratyphi. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Timely initiation of treatment is a crucial step for prevention of any complications. Cultures of body fluids are diagnostic, but not always conclusive or practically feasible in most centers. Moreover, the results of cultures delay the treatment initiation. Serological tests lack diagnostic value. The blood counts can offer a promising option in diagnosis. A retrospective study to find out the relevance of leucopenia and eosinopenia was conducted on 203 culture proven enteric fever patients and 159 culture proven non-enteric fever patients in a tertiary care hospital in New Delhi. The patient details were retrieved from the electronic medical records section of the hospital. Absolute eosinopenia was considered as absolute eosinophil count (AEC) of less than 40/mm³ (normal level: 40-400/mm³) using LH-750 Beckman Coulter Automated machine. Leucopoenia was defined as total leucocyte count (TLC) of less than 4 X 10⁹/l. Blood cultures were done using BacT/ALERT FA plus automated blood culture system before first antibiotic dose was given. Case and control groups were compared using Pearson Chi square test. It was observed that absolute eosinophil count (AEC) of 0-19/mm³ was a significant finding (p < 0.001) in enteric fever patients, whereas leucopenia was not a significant finding (p=0.096). Using Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, it was observed that patients with both AEC < 14/mm³ and TCL < 8 x 10⁹/l had 95.6% chance of being diagnosed as enteric fever and only 4.4% chance of being diagnosed as non-enteric fever. This result was highly significant with p < 0.001. This is a very useful association of AEC and TLC found in enteric fever patients of this study which can be used for the early initiation of treatment in clinically suspected enteric fever patients.Keywords: absolute eosinopenia, absolute eosinophil count, enteric fever, leucopenia, total leucocyte count
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