Search results for: long COVID-19

Authors: Omer Shujat Bhatti, Afshan Huma

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Online educational system were considered a great opportunity for distance learning. In recent days of COVID19 pandemic, it enable the continuation of educational activities at all levels of education, from primary school to the top level universities. One of the key considered element in supporting the online educational system is video lectures. The current research explored the usefulness of the video lectures delivered to technical students of masters level with a focus on MSc Sustainable Environmental design students who have diverse backgrounds in the formal educational system. Hence they were unable to cope right away with the online system and faced communication and understanding issues in the lecture session due to internet and allied connectivity issues. Researcher used self prepared video lectures for respective subjects and provided them to the students using Youtube channel and subject based Whatsapp groups. Later, students were asked about the usefulness of the lectures towards a better understanding of the subject and an overall enhanced learning experience. More than 80% of the students appreciated the effort and requested it to be part of the overall system. Data collection was done using an online questionnaire which was prior briefed to the students with the purpose of research. It was concluded that video lectures should be considered an integral part of the lecture sessions and must be provided prior to the lecture session, ensuring a better quality of delivery. It was also recommended that the existing system must be upgraded to support the availability of these video lectures through the portal. Teachers training must be provided to help develop quality video content ensuring that is able to cover the content and courses taught.

Keywords: video lectures, online distance education, synchronous instruction, asynchronous communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Yuyun Sri Wahyuni, Fathih Misbahuddin Islam

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Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam is the special district with its long conflict history. The long conflict history started from The Free Aceh Movement’s intentions to implement Islamic principles in Aceh Province, it was actually contradicted with the principles of state. This long conflict was finally ended on 2005. Then, since 2005 Aceh had special authority to administer its local government affairs by applying Islamic principles (syariah), included criminal law matters. To administer it, Aceh Government enacted Law Number 6 of 2014 on the Jinayah. This law consists the criminal act (jarimah) and the punishment (uqubat). Khamr, maisir, khalwat, ikhtilath, zina, sexual harrasment, rape, qadzaf, liwath, and musahaqah are the kinds of the criminal act which are ruled within. Meanwhile, Hudud and Takdzir as the kinds of punishment (uqubat). After 2 years of the issuance of this law inflicting controversy from any sides and being discussed not only locally but also globally. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the fundamental value of the flagellation punishment within this law and Aceh Government review in formulating the law.

Keywords: Aceh province, flagellation punishment, Islamic Principle, Qanun Jinayah

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Authors: Vivian Wu

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During the mating season, honeybee drones make mating fights to congregation areas where they face fierce competition to mate with a queen. Drones have developed distinct anatomical and functional features in order to optimize their chances of success. Flight activities of western honeybee (Apis mellifera) drones and foragers were monitored using radio frequency identification (RFID) to test if drones have also developed distinct flight behaviors. Drone flight durations showed a bimodal distribution dividing the flights into short flights and long flights while forager flight durations showed a left-skewed unimodal distribution. Interestingly, the short trips occurred prior to the long trips on a daily basis. The first trips of the day the drones made were primarily short trips, and the distribution significantly shifted to long trips as the drones made more trips. In contrast, forager trips showed no such shift of distribution. In addition, drones made short trips but no long mating trips on days associated with a significant drop in temperature and increase of clouds compared to the previous day. These findings suggest that drones may have developed a unique flight behavior making short trips first to survey the weather conditions before flying out to the congregation area to pursue a successful mating.

Keywords: apis mellifera, drone, flight behavior, weather, RFID

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Mohammad Maruf Hasan

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been increased at a remarkable position around the globe in which emerging economies are getting more FDI compared to industrialized economies. This study aims to examine the determinants of inward FDI flows in Bangladesh. To estimate the long and short-run impact of the FDI determinants for 1996-2020, we employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results show that: (1) macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, infrastructure, and market size, have a significant and strong positive effect.(2) Inflation exchange rate shows insignificant effects, while trade openness has mixed (short-run negative, long-run positive) effects on FDI inflows in both the long and short run. (3) Current institutional determinants rule of law has a positive effect on FDI inflows but is statistically insignificant, political stability has a negative, and the rule of law has a considerable beneficial impact on inflows of FDI. (4) The macroeconomic factors have been determined to impact Bangladesh's FDI inflows. Finally, a stable macroeconomic climate is more effective at luring FDI, as this study confirms. From a policy perspective, this study will help the government and policymakers to make a new investment policy.

Keywords: determinants, FDI, ARDL, Bangladesh

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Authors: Sneha Thakur, Sanjeev Karmakar

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This paper proposed hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) – Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model for groundwater level prediction. The evaluation of the performance is realized using the parameters: root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Ground water level forecasting will be very effective for planning water harvesting. Proper calculation of water level forecasting can overcome the problem of drought and flood to some extent. The objective of this work is to develop a ground water level forecasting model using deep learning technique integrated with optimization technique PSO by applying 29 years data of Chhattisgarh state, In-dia. It is important to find the precise forecasting in case of ground water level so that various water resource planning and water harvesting can be managed effectively.

Keywords: long short-term memory, particle swarm optimization, prediction, deep learning, groundwater level

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Nikolaos Konstantopoulos, Aristeidis Samitas, Vasileiou Evangelos

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The purpose of this study is to examine if the financial trends influence not only the stock markets’ returns, but also their anomalies. We choose to study the day of the week effect (DOW) for the Greek stock market during the Euro period (2002-12), because during the specific period there are not significant structural changes and there are long term financial trends. Moreover, in order to avoid possible methodological counterarguments that usually arise in the literature, we apply several linear (OLS) and nonlinear (GARCH family) models to our sample until we reach to the conclusion that the TGARCH model fits better to our sample than any other. Our results suggest that in the Greek stock market there is a long term predisposition for positive/negative returns depending on the weekday. However, the statistical significance is influenced from the financial trend. This influence may be the reason why there are conflict findings in the literature through the time. Finally, we combine the DOW’s empirical findings from 1985-2012 and we may assume that in the Greek case there is a tendency for long lived turn of the week effect.

Keywords: day of the week effect, GARCH family models, Athens stock exchange, economic growth, crisis

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Authors: Euphrasia Susy Suhendra, Lies Handrijaningsih

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The banking sector as an intermediary party or intermediaries occupies a very important position in bridging the needs of working capital investment in the real sector with funds owner. This will certainly make money more effectively to improve the economic value added. As an intermediary, Islamic banks raise funds from the public and then distribute in the form of financing. In practice, the distribution of funding that is run by Islamic Banking is not as easy as, in theory, because, in fact, there are many financing problems; some are caused by lacking the assessment and supervision of banks to customers. This study aims to analyze the influence of the Third Party Funds, Return on Assets (ROA), Non Performing Financing (NPF), and Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) to Total Financing provided to the Community by Islamic Banks in Indonesia. The data used is monthly data released by Bank of Indonesia in Islamic Banking Statistics in the time period of January 2009 - December 2013. This study uses cointegration test to see the long-term relationship, and use error correction models to examine the relationship of short-term. The results of this study indicate that the Third Party Fund has a short-term effect on total funding, Return on Assets has a long term effect on the total financing, Non Performing Financing has long-term effects of total financing, and Financing deposit ratio has the effect of short-term and long-term of the total financing provided by Islamic Banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: Islamic banking, third party fund, return on asset, non-performing financing, financing deposit ratio

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Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin

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The swamp land contains high iron, aluminum, and low pH. Calcium and magnesium in the rice husk ash can reduce plant poisoning so that plant growth increases in fertility. The first factor was the doze of rice husk, and the second factor was 0.0 g rhizobium inoculant /kg seed, 4.0 g rhizobium inoculant/kg seed, 8 g rhizobium inoculant /kg seed, and 12 g l rhizobium inoculant /kg seed. The plants were maintained under light conditions with a + 11.45 – 12.15 hour photoperiod. The combination between rhizobium inoculant and rice husk ash has been an interacting effect on the production of long bean pod fresh weight. The mean relative growth rate, net assimilation rate, and pod fresh weight are increased by a combination of husk rice ash and rhizobium inoculant. Rice husk ash affected increases the availability of nitrogen in the land, albeit in poor condition of nutrition. Rhizobium is active in creating a fixation of nitrogen in the atmosphere because rhizobium increases the abilities of intercellular and symbiotic nitrogen in the long beans. The combination of rice husk ash and rhizobium could be effected to create a thriving in the land.

Keywords: aluminium, calcium, fixation, iron, nitrogen

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Authors: Woo-Tai Jung, Sung-Yong Choi, Young-Hwan Park

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The composite pavement system considered in this paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer. The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.

Keywords: creep, lean concrete, pavement, fiber reinforced concrete, base

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Authors: Olga C. Rodrigue

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Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities experience ebbs and flows of nursing staffing, a problem compounded by the perception of the facilities as undesirable workplaces and competition for staff from other healthcare entities. Travel nurses are contracted to fill staffing needs due to increased admissions, increased and unexpected attrition of nurses, or facility expansion of services. Prior to beginning the contracted assignment, the travel nurse must meet industry, company, and regulatory requirements (The Joint Commission and CMS) for skills and knowledge. Travel nurses, however, inconsistently receive the pre-assignment orientation needed to work at the contracted facility, if any information is given at all. When performance expectations are not met, travel nurses may subsequently choose to leave the position without completing the terms of the contract, and some facilities may choose to terminate the contract prior to the expected end date. The overarching goal of the Doctor of Nursing Practice evidence-based practice improvement project is to provide travel nurses with the basic and necessary information to prepare them to begin a long-term and skilled nursing assignment. The project involves the identification of travel nurse learning needs through a survey and the development and provision of web-based learning modules to address those needs prior to arrival for a long-term and skilled nursing assignment.

Keywords: nurse staffing, travel nurse, travel staff, contract staff, contracted assignment, long-term care, skilled nursing, onboarding, orientation, staff development, supplemental staff

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: N. Uaphongsathorn, C. Worawong, S. Thaewpia

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Background and significance: The population is aging in Thai society, the elderly dependent is at great risk of various functional, psychological, and socio-economic problems as well as less access to health care. They may require long term care at home to maximize their functional abilities and activities of daily living and to improve their quality of life during their own age. Therefore, there is a need to develop a home-based long term care to meet the long term care needs of elders dependent. Methods: The research purpose was to develop long term care model among the elderly dependent in Chaiyaphum province in Northeast region of Thailand. Action Research which is composing of planning, action, observation, and reflection phases was used. Research was carried out for 12 months in all sub-districts of 6 districts in Chaiyaphum province. Participants (N = 1,010) participating in the processes of model development were comprised of 3 groups: a) a total of 110 health care professionals, b) a total of 600 health volunteers and family caregivers and c) a total of 300 the elderly dependent with chronically medical illnesses or disabilities. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze data. Findings: Results have shown that the most common health problems among elders dependent with physical disabilities to function independently were cardiovascular disease, dementia, and traffic injuries. The development of home-based long term care model among elders dependent in Chaiyaphum province was composed of six key steps. They are: a) initiating policies supporting formal and informal caregivers for the elder dependent in all sub-districts, b) building network and multidisciplinary team, c) developing 3-day care manager training program and 3-day care provider training program d) training case managers and care providers for the elderly dependent through team and action learning, e) assessing, planning and providing care based on care individual’s needs of the elderly dependent, and f) sharing experiences for good practice and innovation for long term care at homes in district urban and rural areas. Among all care managers and care providers, the satisfaction level for training programs was high with a mean score of 3.98 out of 5. The elders dependent and family caregivers addressed that long term care at home could contribute to improving life’s daily activities, family relationship, health status, and quality of life. Family caregivers and volunteers have feeling a sense of personal satisfaction and experiencing providing meaningful care and support for elders dependent. Conclusion: In conclusion, a home-based long term care is important to Thai elders dependent. Care managers and care providers play a large role and responsibility to provide appropriate care to meet the elders’ needs in both urban and rural areas in Thai society. Further research could be rigorously studied with a larger group of populations in similar socio-economic and cultural contexts.

Keywords: elderly people, care manager, care provider, long term care

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Authors: Xinyi Xu

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This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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Authors: Matthias Nnadi

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This paper investigates the relationship between premiums and returns in the short and long terms in European merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. The study employs Calendar Time Portfolio (CTP) model and find strong evidence that in the long run, premiums have a positive impact on performance, and we also establish evidence of a significant difference between the abnormal returns of the high premium paying portfolio and the low premium paying ones. Even in cases where all sub-portfolios show negative abnormal returns, the high premium category still outperforms the low premium category. Our findings have implications for companies engaging in acquisitions.

Keywords: mergers, premium, performance, returns, acquisitions

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Elie Awwad, Bilal Hamad, Mounir Mabsout, Helmi Khatib

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The paper reports test results on the long-term behavior of sustainable hemp-concrete material prepared in research work conducted at the American University of Beirut. The tests results are in terms of compressive and splitting tensile tests conducted on standard 150x300 mm cylinders. A control mix without fibers, one polypropylene-concrete mix, and ten hemp-concrete mixes were prepared with different percentages of industrial hemp fibers and reduced coarse aggregate contents. The objective was to investigate the strength properties of hemp-reinforced concrete at 1.5 years age as compared with control mixes. The results indicated that both the compressive strength and the splitting tensile strength results of all tested cylinders increased as compared with the 28-days values. Also, the difference between the hemp-concrete samples and the control samples at 28 days was maintained at 1.5 years age indicating that hemp fibers did not exhibit any negative effect on the long-term strength properties of concrete.

Keywords: hemp-reinforced concrete, natural fibers, compressive strength, splitting tensile strength

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Authors: Alexander Rych

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Piql Preservation Services (“Piql”) is a turnkey solution designed for secure, migration-free long- term preservation of digital data. Piql sets an open standard for long- term preservation for the future. It consists of equipment and processes needed for writing and retrieving digital data. Exponentially growing amounts of data demand for logistically effective and cost effective processes. Digital storage media (hard disks, magnetic tape) exhibit limited lifetime. Repetitive data migration to overcome rapid obsolescence of hardware and software bears accelerated risk of data loss, data corruption or even manipulation and adds significant repetitive costs for hardware and software investments. Piql stores any kind of data in its digital as well as analog form securely for 500 years. The medium that provides this is a film reel. Using photosensitive film polyester base, a very stable material that is known for its immutability over hundreds of years, secure and cost-effective long- term preservation can be provided. The film reel itself is stored in a packaging capable of protecting the optical storage medium. These components have undergone extensive testing to ensure longevity of up to 500 years. In addition to its durability, film is a true WORM (write once- read many) medium. It therefore is resistant to editing or manipulation. Being able to store any form of data onto the film makes Piql a superior solution for long-term preservation. Paper documents, images, video or audio sequences – all of those file formats and documents can be preserved in its native file structure. In order to restore the encoded digital data, only a film scanner, a digital camera or any appropriate optical reading device will be needed in the future. Every film reel includes an index section describing the data saved on the film. It also contains a content section carrying meta-data, enabling users in the future to rebuild software in order to read and decode the digital information.

Keywords: digital data, long-term preservation, migration-free, photosensitive film

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Doaa Hashad, Amany Elbanna, Abeer Ibrahim, Gihan Khedr

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Background: H19 is one of the long non coding RNAs (LncRNA) that is related to the progression of many diseases including cancers. This work was carried out to study the level of the long non-coding RNA; H119, in plasma of patients with gastric cancer (GC) and to assess its significance in their clinical management. Methods: A total of sixty-two participants were enrolled in the present study. The first group included thirty-two GC patients, while the second group was formed of thirty age and sex matched healthy volunteers serving as a control group. Plasma samples were used to assess H19 gene expression using real time quantitative PCR technique. Results: H19 expression was up-regulated in GC patients with positive correlation to TNM cancer stages. Conclusions: Up-regulation of H19 is closely associated with gastric cancer and correlates well with tumor staging. Convenient, efficient quantification of H19 in plasma using real time PCR technique implements its role as a potential noninvasive prognostic biomarker in gastric cancer, that predicts patient’s outcome and most importantly as a novel target in gastric cancer treatment with better performance achieved on using both CEA and H19 simultaneously.

Keywords: biomarker, gastric, cancer, LncRNA

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Authors: Hadi O. Tohme

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This study is a review on the effectiveness of new physiotherapy techniques with external sensory stimulus compared to standard physiotherapy in the daily activities of patients with Parkinson's disease. Twenty studies from 1996 to 2015 were analyzed and discussed in this review, using the rehabilitation strategy with external sensory stimulus evaluating walking, freezing episodes, balance, transfers, and daily activities of parkinsonian patients. The study highlights the effectiveness of the variety of rehabilitation with cueing strategy used in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Based on the literature review completed, there is a need for more specific trials with better treatment strategies to support the most appropriate choice of physiotherapy intervention using external sensory stimulus to the type and frequency of this stimulus. In addition, no trials examined the long-term benefits of the physiotherapy intervention with the external sensory stimulus. In order to determine if, or how long the improvements due to the external sensory stimulus physiotherapy intervention can last, long-term follow-up should be performed.

Keywords: cueing strategy, external sensory stimulus, parkinson disease, rehabilitation for parkinson, sensory attention focused exercises, sensory strategy reeducation

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Kumars ZandParsa, Quynh Nguyen, Hadi Moradi

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There are old cast-in-place concrete box girder bridges in California with inter-span hinges that are designed based on old earthquake codes. Hinge removal is part of the bridges’ earthquake retrofitting project, and hinges were removed and replaced with modified hinges per new earthquake codes. The span that has a hinge is divided into short and long cantilevers in which the short cantilever supports the long cantilever. In the recent bridge hinge replacement, the length of the short and long cantilevers were 20ft and 80ft, respectively. The seat in the new design is wider than the old design, and the horizontal and vertical movements of the deck at the hinge location must be computed to check if restraints are needed. In this paper, besides considering the conventional reinforced concrete box girder bridges, the hinge removal operations, along with the response spectrum analysis based on the El Centro 1940 earthquake, will be presented to verify if vertical and horizontal restrainers are needed.

Keywords: hinge replacement, restrainers, vertical earthquake, response spectrum analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 578

Authors: A. B. Benshak, M. G. Yilkangnha, V. Y. Nanle

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Social crises and violent conflict can inflict direct (short-term) impact on the environment like poisoning water bodies, climate change, deforestation, destroying the chemical component of the soil due to the chemical and biological weapons used. It can also impact the environment indirectly (long-term), e.g., the destruction of political and economic infrastructure to manage the environmental resources and breaking down traditional conservation practices, population displacement and refugee flows which puts pressure on the already inadequate resources, infrastructure, facilities, amenities, services etc. This study therefore examines the impact of social crises on the environment in Jos Plateau State with emphasis on the long-term impact, analyze the relationship between crises and the environment and assess the perception of people on social crises because much work have concentrated on other repercussions such as the economy, health etc that are more politically expedient. The data for this research were collected mostly through interviews, questionnaire, dailies and reports on the subject matter. The data and findings were presented in tables and results showed that the environment is directly and indirectly impacted by crises and that these impacts can in turn result to a continuous cycle of violent activities if not addressed because of the inadequacies in the supply of infrastructural facilities, resources and so on caused by the inflow of displaced population. Recommendations were made on providing security to minimize conflict occurrences in Jos and its environs, minimizing the impact of social crises on the environment, provision of adequate infrastructural facilities to carter for population rise, renewal and regeneration schemes, etc. which will go a long way in mitigating the impact of crises on the environment.

Keywords: environment, impact, long-term, social crises

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Authors: Chayanon Hansapinyo

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This paper presents experimental investigation and finite element analysis on buckling behavior of irregular section cold-formed steel columns under axially concentric loading. For the experimental study, four different sections of columns were tested to investigate effect of stiffening and width-to-thickness ratio on buckling behavior. For each of the section, three lengths of 230, 950 and 1900 mm. were studied representing short, intermediate long and long columns, respectively. Then, nonlinear finite element analyses of the tested columns were performed. The comparisons in terms of load-deformation response and buckling mode show good agreement and hence the FEM models were validated. Parametric study of stiffening element and thickness of 1.0, 1.15, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6 and 2.0 mm. were analyzed. The test results showed that stiffening effect pays a large contribution to prevent distortional mode. The increase in wall thickness enhanced buckling stress beyond the yielding strength in short and intermediate columns, but not for the long columns.

Keywords: buckling behavior, irregular section, cold-formed steel, concentric loading

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Jitendra Jain, Cassandra Hidajat, Hansraj Riteesh Bookun

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Graft patency underpins long-term prognosis after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). The benefits of the combined use of only the left internal mammary artery and radial artery, referred to as total arterial revascularisation (TAR), on long-term clinical outcomes and quality of life are relatively unknown. The aim of this study was to identify whether there were differences in long term clinical outcomes between recipients of TAR compared to a cohort of mostly arterial revascularization involving the left internal mammary, at least one radial artery and at least one saphenous vein graft. A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients who underwent TAR or were re-vascularized with supplementary saphenous vein graft from February 1996 to December 2004. Telephone surveys were conducted to obtain clinical outcome parameters including major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and Short Form (SF-36v2) Health Survey responses. A total of 176 patients were successfully contacted to obtain postop follow up results. The mean follow-up length from time of surgery in our study was TAR 12.4±1.8 years and conventional 12.6±2.1. PCS score was TAR 45.9±8.8 vs LIMA/Rad/ SVG 44.9±9.2 (p=0.468) and MCS score was TAR 52.0±8.9 vs LIMA/Rad/SVG 52.5±9.3 (p=0.723). There were no significant differences between groups for NYHA class 3+ TAR 9.4% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 6.6%; or CCS 3+ TAR 2.35% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 0%.

Keywords: CABG; MACCEs; quality of life; total arterial revascularisation

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke

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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.

Keywords: composite, dynamic mechanical analysis, long fibre reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, time temperature superposition

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Yasmine Essafi Zouari, Aya Nasreddine

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Following a long inflationary period from the post-war era to the mid-1980s (+10.1% annually), France went through a moderate inflation period between 1986 and 2001 (+2.1% annually) and even lower inflation between 2002 and 2016 (+1.4% annually). In 2022, inflation in France increased rapidly and reached 4.5% over one year in March, according to INSEE estimates. Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. Considering a mixed-asset portfolio composed of housing assets (residential real estate in 150 Grand Paris communes) as well as financial assets, and using both correlation and regression analysis, results confirm the attribute of the direct housing investment as an inflation hedge especially particularly against its unexpected component. Further, cash and bonds were found to provide respectively a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant positive hedge against expected inflation.

Keywords: direct housing, inflation, hedging ability, optimal portfolio, Grand Paris metropolis

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Athanasios A. Tountas, Geoffrey A. Ozin, Mohini M. Sain

Abstract:

Renewable hydrogen (H₂) carriers such as methanol (MeOH), dimethyl ether (DME), oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OMEs), and conceivably ammonia (NH₃) can be reformed back into H₂ and are fundamental chemical conversions for the long-term viability of the H₂ economy due to their higher densities and ease of transportability compared to H₂. MeOH is an especially important carrier as it is a simple C1 chemical that can be produced from green solar-PV-generated H₂ and direct-air-captured CO₂ with a current commercially practical solar-to-fuel efficiency of 10% from renewable solar energy. MeOH steam reforming (MSR) in stationary systems next to H₂ fuel-cell filling stations can eliminate the need for onboard mobile reformers, and the former systems can be more robust in terms of attaining strict H₂ product specifications, and MeOH is a safe, lossless, and compact medium for long-term H₂ storage. Both thermal- and photo-catalysts are viable options for achieving the stable, long-term performance of stationary MSR systems.

Keywords: fuel-cell vehicle filling stations, methanol steam reforming, hydrogen transport and storage, stationary reformer, liquid hydrogen carriers

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen’s maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests no effects of the CO2 emissions and energy use on the GDP in Turkey. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between the electricity and natural gas consumption, and also there is a negative unidirectional causality running from the GDP to electricity use. Overall, the results partly support arguments that there are relationships between energy use and economic output; however, the effects may differ due to the source of energy such as in the case of Turkey for the period of 1980-2010. However, there is no significant relationship between the CO2 emissions and the GDP and between the CO2 emissions and the energy use both in the short term and long term.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Jose G. Dórea, Teresa H. M. da Costa

Abstract:

Objective: Epidemiological data shows an inverse association of coffee consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the clinical effects of coffee consumption on the glucose metabolism biomarkers remain controversial. Thus, this paper reviews clinical trials that evaluated the effects of coffee consumption on glucose metabolism. Research Design and Methods: We identified studies published until December 2014 by searching electronic databases and reference lists. We included randomized clinical trials which the intervention group received caffeinated and/or decaffeinated coffee and the control group received water or placebo treatments and measured biomarkers of glucose metabolism. The Jadad Score was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies whereas studies that scored ≥ 3 points were considered for the analyses. Results: Seven clinical trials (total of 237 subjects) were analyzed involving adult healthy, overweight and diabetic subjects. The studies were divided in short-term (1 to 3h) and long-term (2 to 16 weeks) duration. The results for short-term studies showed that caffeinated coffee consumption may increase the area under the curve for glucose response, while for long-term studies caffeinated coffee may improve the glycemic metabolism by reducing the glucose curve and increasing insulin response. These results seem to show that the benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term as has been shown in the reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, until the relationship between long-term coffee consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus is better understood and any mechanism involved identified, it is premature to make claims about coffee preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee may impairs glucose metabolism in short-term but in the long-term the studies indicate reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. More clinical trials with comparable methodology are needed to unravel this paradox.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

Procedia PDF Downloads 464