Search results for: Irene A. Monte

Authors: Goh Mingyuan Asher, Nurul Fadiah Johari, Neo Yu Wei, Kim Aryung, Ho Kong Chong, Irene Y. H. N. G.

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The COVID-19 pandemic represents an externally induced force as they face a combination of reduced work, dismissal, and job change for young precarious workers. The paper drew insights from two interview waves of the in-work poverty study in Singapore which were conducted a year apart. By analysing respondents’ job histories before and at the start of the pandemic as well as their job experiences over the two waves of interviews, the study found the presence of what scholars describe as trap and stepping stone trajectories. Trap trajectories refer to how the nature of precarious employment leads respondents to be in dead-end jobs with no room for progression while stepping stone trajectories refer to how poor work provides opportunities for the accumulation of work experiences. We also look at how structure, agency and biographical factors affect job trajectories and discuss the impacts of COVID-19 on work experiences and the implications of the bifurcation of trajectory outcomes on poverty and inequality among the young working poor in Singapore.

Keywords: working poor, precarity, young workers, COVID-19, work trajectories

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Authors: Z. Jamalzadeh, A. Niaei, H. Erfannia

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Due to developing industries, the emission of pollutants such as NOx, SOx, and CO2 are rapidly increased. Generally, NOx is attributed to the mono nitrogen oxides of NO and NO2 that is one of the most important atmospheric contaminants. Hence, controlling the emission of nitrogen oxides is environmentally urgent. Selective catalytic reduction of NOx is one of the most common techniques for NOx removal in which zeolites have wide application due to their high performance. In zeolitic processes, the catalytic reaction occurs mostly in the pores. Therefore, investigation of the adsorption phenomena of the molecules in order to gain an insight and understand the catalytic cycle is of important. Hence, in current study, benefiting from molecular simulations, the adsorption phenomena in the nanocatalysts of SCR of NOx process was investigated in order to get a good insight of the catalysts’ behavior. The effect of cation addition to the support in the catalysts’ behavior through adsorption step was explored by Mont Carlo (MC) using Materials Studio Package. Simulation time of 1 Ns accompanying 1 fs time step, COMPASS27 Force Field and the cut off radios of 12.5 Ȧ was applied for performed runs. It was observed that the adsorption capacity increases in the presence of cations. The sorption isotherms demonstrated the behavior of type I isotherm categories and sorption capacity diminished with increase in temperature whereas an increase was observed at high pressures. Besides, NO sorption showed higher sorption capacity than NH3 in H–ZSM5. In this respect, the energy distributions signified that the molecules could adsorb in just one sorption site at the catalyst and the sorption energy of NO was stronger than the NH3 in H-ZSM5. Furthermore, the isosteric heat of sorption data showed nearly same values for the molecules; however, it indicated stronger interactions of NO molecules with H-ZSM5 zeolite compared to the isosteric heat of NH3 which was low in value.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, adsorption, NOx, ZSM5

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Authors: Irene Doosuur Mngutyo

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The preliminary stages in the development of human communities are the formation of a correct understanding of people’s needs. However, perception of human needs is highly subjective and difficult to aggregate. Quality of life measurements are an appropriate means for achieving an understanding of Human needs. Hence this study endeavors to measure quality of life in Makurdi using subjective indices to measure three aspects of subjective wellbeing. A sample of 400 respondents achieved by applying the Taro Yamane formula to Makurdi’s projected population. Questionnaires were randomly distributed to residents of nine wards in Makurdi. Findings from a pilot study( N=100) demonstrated that among the 2 aspects of overall quality of life investigated,22% had a mean low overall assessment of quality of life now being3on the scale and an even poorer assessment for projected quality in the next five years by 17%(3)although an equal percentage are hopeful for a better life(10)in the next five years.60% of the respondents record very rare positive feelings while only 10% have positive feelings always on the eudaimonic scale69%strongly agree that they have a purposeful and meaningful life. Findings indicate good social ties as a strong indicator for perceived good feelings and even though quality of life is perceived as low there is optimism for the future.

Keywords: quality of life, subjective indicators, development, urban planning

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Iniye Irene Wodi, Kennedy B. Gibson

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Students’ poor performance in mathematics in both internal and external examinations has been a source of concern to researchers in Nigeria. The cause of this has been attributed to both teachers and students. To this end, this study sought to find out students’ perceptions of teachers’ attributes as a cause of mathematics phobia among secondary school students in Bayelsa State Nigeria. The population of the study comprised of all students of senior secondary schools in Yenagoa metropolis. A sample of 120 students was drawn from this population using clustering and simple random sampling techniques. The instrument for data collection was a researcher constructed questionnaire titled Mathematics Phobia Questionnaire (MPQ). Data were analysed, and the results revealed that students perceived teachers’ attributes such as methods and styles of teaching, difficulty in communication, etc. as causes of mathematics phobia among students in senior secondary schools in Bayelsa State. Based on the result, it was therefore recommended that mathematics teachers should be retrained periodically in order to learn new and innovative ways of teaching mathematics to prevent its phobia among students.

Keywords: mathematics phobia, teacher attributes, teaching method, teaching style

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Authors: Navid Mohammadzadeh, Huy Truong-Ba, Michael Cholette

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The solar tower (ST) plant is a promising technology to exploit large-scale solar irradiation. With thermal energy storage, ST plant has the potential to shift generation to high electricity price periods. However, the size of storage limits the dispatchability of the plant, particularly when it should compete with uncertainty in forecasts of solar irradiation and electricity prices. The purpose of this study is to explore the size of storage when Rolling Horizon Control (RHC) is employed for dispatch scheduling. To this end, RHC is benchmarked against perfect knowledge (PK) forecast and two day-ahead dispatching policies. With optimisation of dispatch planning using PK policy, the optimal achievable profit for a specific size of the storage is determined. A sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted, and the size of storage for RHC and day-ahead policies is determined with the objective of reaching the profit obtained from the PK policy. A case study is conducted for a hypothetical ST plant with thermal storage located in South Australia and intends to dispatch under two market scenarios: 1) fixed price and 2) wholesale spot price. The impact of each individual source of uncertainty on storage size is examined for January and August. The exploration of results shows that dispatching with RH controller reaches optimal achievable profit with ~15% smaller storage compared to that in day-ahead policies. The results of this study may be applied to the CSP plant design procedure.

Keywords: solar tower plant, spot market, thermal storage system, optimized dispatch planning, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Luis Lara-Valencia, Mateo Ramirez-Acevedo, Daniel Caicedo, Jose Brito, Yosef Farbiarz

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Controlling wind-induced vibrations as well as aerodynamic forces, is an essential part of the structural design of tall buildings in order to guarantee the serviceability limit state of the structure. This paper presents a numerical investigation on the optimal design parameters of a Tuned Inerter Damper (TID) based system for the control of wind-induced vibration in tall buildings. The control system is based on the conventional TID, with the main difference that its location is changed from the ground level to the last two story-levels of the structural system. The TID tuning procedure is based on an evolutionary cultural algorithm in which the optimum design variables defined as the frequency and damping ratios were searched according to the optimization criteria of minimizing the root mean square (RMS) response of displacements at the nth story of the structure. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to represent the dynamic action of the wind in the time domain in which a time-series derived from the Davenport spectrum using eleven harmonic functions with randomly chosen phase angles was reproduced. The above-mentioned methodology was applied on a case-study derived from a 37-story prestressed concrete building with 144 m height, in which the wind action overcomes the seismic action. The results showed that the optimally tuned TID is effective to reduce the RMS response of displacements up to 25%, which demonstrates the feasibility of the system for the control of wind-induced vibrations in tall buildings.

Keywords: evolutionary cultural algorithm, Monte Carlo simulation, tuned inerter damper, wind-induced vibrations

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Authors: Ozan Yavuz Baytemir, Ender Cigeroglu, Gokhan Osman Ozgen

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Vibration is an important issue in the design of various components of aerospace, marine and vehicular applications. In order not to lose the components’ function and operational performance, vibration isolation design involving the optimum isolator properties selection and isolator positioning processes appear to be a critical study. Knowing the growing need for the vibration isolation system design, this paper aims to present two types of software capable of implementing modal analysis, response analysis for both random and harmonic types of excitations, static deflection analysis, Monte Carlo simulations in addition to study of parameter and location optimization for different types of isolation problem scenarios. Investigating the literature, there is no such study developing a software-based tool that is capable of implementing all those analysis, simulation and optimization studies in one platform simultaneously. In this paper, the theoretical system model is generated for a 6-DOF rigid body. The vibration isolation system of any mechanical structure is able to be optimized using hybrid method involving both global search and gradient-based methods. Defining the optimization design variables, different types of optimization scenarios are listed in detail. Being aware of the need for a user friendly vibration isolation problem solver, two types of graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are prepared and verified using a commercial finite element analysis program, Ansys Workbench 14.0. Using the analysis and optimization capabilities of those GUIs, a real application used in an air-platform is also presented as a case study at the end of the paper.

Keywords: hybrid optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, multi-degree-of-freedom system, parameter optimization, location optimization, passive vibration isolation analysis

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Authors: Pabitra Sahu, M. Manohari, S. Priyadharshini, R. Santhanam, S. Chandrasekaran, B. Venkatraman

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Radiation workers of reprocessing plants have a potential for internal exposure due to actinides and fission products. Radionuclides like Americium, lead, Polonium and Europium are bone seekers and get accumulated in the skeletal part. As the major skeletal content is in the skull (13%) and knee (22%), measurements of old intake have to be carried out in the skull and knee. At the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, a twin HPGe-based actinide monitor is used for the measurement of actinides present in bone. Efficiency estimation, which is one of the prerequisites for the quantification of radionuclides, requires anthropomorphic phantoms. Such phantoms are very limited. Hence, in this study, efficiency curves for a Twin HPGe-based actinide monitoring system are established theoretically using the FLUKA Monte Carlo method and ICRP adult male voxel phantom. In the case of skull measurement, the detector is placed over the forehead, and for knee measurement, one detector is placed over each knee. The efficiency values of radionuclides present in the knee and skull vary from 3.72E-04 to 4.19E-04 CPS/photon and 5.22E-04 to 7.07E-04 CPS/photon, respectively, for the energy range 17 to 3000keV. The efficiency curves for the measurement are established, and it is found that initially, the efficiency value increases up to 100 keV and then starts decreasing. It is found that the skull efficiency values are 4% to 63% higher than that of the knee, depending on the energy for all the energies except 17.74 keV. The reason is the closeness of the detector to the skull compared to the knee. But for 17.74 keV the efficiency of the knee is more than the skull due to the higher attenuation caused in the skull bones because of its greater thickness. The Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) for 241Am present in the skull and knee is 9 Bq. 239Pu has a MDA of 950 Bq and 1270 Bq for knee and skull, respectively, for a counting time of 1800 sec. This paper discusses the simulation method and the results obtained in the study.

Keywords: FLUKA Monte Carlo Method, ICRP adult male voxel phantom, knee, Skull.

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Authors: Utkarsh A. Mishra, Ankit Bansal

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At high temperature, radiative heat transfer is the dominant mode of heat transfer. It is governed by various phenomena such as photon emission, absorption, and scattering. The solution of the governing integrodifferential equation of radiative transfer is a complex process, more when the effect of participating medium and wavelength properties are taken into consideration. Although a generic formulation of such radiative transport problem can be modeled for a wide variety of problems with non-gray, non-diffusive surfaces, there is always a trade-off between simplicity and accuracy of the problem. Recently, solutions of complicated mathematical problems with statistical methods based on randomization of naturally occurring phenomena have gained significant importance. Photon bundles with discrete energy can be replicated with random numbers describing the emission, absorption, and scattering processes. Photon Monte Carlo (PMC) is a simple, yet powerful technique, to solve radiative transfer problems in complicated geometries with arbitrary participating medium. The method, on the one hand, increases the accuracy of estimation, and on the other hand, increases the computational cost. The participating media -generally a gas, such as CO₂, CO, and H₂O- present complex emission and absorption spectra. To model the emission/absorption accurately with random numbers requires a weighted sampling as different sections of the spectrum carries different importance. Importance sampling (IS) was implemented to sample random photon of arbitrary wavelength, and the sampled data provided unbiased training of MC estimators for better results. A better replacement to uniform random numbers is using deterministic, quasi-random sequences. Halton, Sobol, and Faure Low-Discrepancy Sequences are used in this study. They possess better space-filling performance than the uniform random number generator and gives rise to a low variance, stable Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) estimators with faster convergence. An optimal supervised learning scheme was further considered to reduce the computation costs of the PMC simulation. A one-dimensional plane-parallel slab problem with participating media was formulated. The history of some randomly sampled photon bundles is recorded to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), back-propagation model. The flux was calculated using the standard quasi PMC and was considered to be the training target. Results obtained with the proposed model for the one-dimensional problem are compared with the exact analytical and PMC model with the Line by Line (LBL) spectral model. The approximate variance obtained was around 3.14%. Results were analyzed with respect to time and the total flux in both cases. A significant reduction in variance as well a faster rate of convergence was observed in the case of the QMC method over the standard PMC method. However, the results obtained with the ANN method resulted in greater variance (around 25-28%) as compared to the other cases. There is a great scope of machine learning models to help in further reduction of computation cost once trained successfully. Multiple ways of selecting the input data as well as various architectures will be tried such that the concerned environment can be fully addressed to the ANN model. Better results can be achieved in this unexplored domain.

Keywords: radiative heat transfer, Monte Carlo Method, pseudo-random numbers, low discrepancy sequences, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: A. Sohouli, A. Suleman

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This study focuses on reliability analysis of variable stiffness composite laminate structures to investigate the potential structural improvement compared to conventional (straight fibers) composite laminate structures. A computational framework was developed which it consists of a deterministic design step and reliability analysis. The optimization part is Discrete Material Optimization (DMO) and the reliability of the structure is computed by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) after using Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM). The design driver in deterministic optimization is the maximum stiffness, while optimization method concerns certain manufacturing constraints to attain industrial relevance. These manufacturing constraints are the change of orientation between adjacent patches cannot be too large and the maximum number of successive plies of a particular fiber orientation should not be too high. Variable stiffness composites may be manufactured by Automated Fiber Machines (AFP) which provides consistent quality with good production rates. However, laps and gaps are the most important challenges to steer fibers that effect on the performance of the structures. In this study, the optimal curved fiber paths at each layer of composites are designed in the first step by DMO, and then the reliability analysis is applied to investigate the sensitivity of the structure with different standard deviations compared to the straight fiber angle composites. The random variables are material properties and loads on the structures. The results show that the variable stiffness composite laminate structures are much more reliable, even for high standard deviation of material properties, than the conventional composite laminate structures. The reason is that the variable stiffness composite laminates allow tailoring stiffness and provide the possibility of adjusting stress and strain distribution favorably in the structures.

Keywords: material optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability analysis, response surface method, variable stiffness composite structures

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Authors: Rosa Christodoulaki, Irene Koronaki, Panagiotis Tsekouras

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The aim of this study is to analyze the energy performance of a spherical Stationary Reflector / Tracking Absorber (SRTA) solar concentrator. This type of collector consists of a segment of a spherical mirror placed in a stationary position facing the sun and a cylindrical absorber that tracks the sun by a simple pivoting motion about the center of curvature of the reflector. The energy analysis is performed through the development of a dynamic simulation model in TRNSYS software that calculates the annual heat production and the efficiency of the SRTA solar concentrator. The effect of solar concentrator design features and characteristics, such the reflector material, the reflector diameter, the receiver type, the solar radiation level and the concentration ratio, are discussed in details. Moreover, the energy performance curve of the SRTA solar concentrator, for various temperature differences between the mean fluid temperature and the ambient temperature and radiation intensities is drawn. The results are shown in diagrams, visualizing the effect of solar, optical and thermal parameters to the overall performance of the SRTA solar concentrator throughout the year. The analysis indicates that the SRTA solar concentrator can operate efficiently under a wide range of operating conditions.

Keywords: concentrating solar collector, energy analysis , stationary reflector, tracking absorber

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Authors: Irene Bruna Seu

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This paper draws on a three-year research project investigating everyday moral reasoning in relation to donations and prosocial behaviour in the humanitarian context. The analysis focuses on the principle of deservingness by which members of the public decide who and under which conditions to help and illustrates how the speakers engage in ideological dilemmas. The paper focuses on the theme ‘Something for nothing’ to examine how the position of ‘deserving’ and the speaker’s rights and duties in relation to victims of humanitarian crises are negotiated. Discursive analyses of this dilemmatic storyline of deservingness illuminate the cultural and ideological resources buttressing this construction. They also illustrate how humanitarianism intersects and clashes with other ideologies and value systems. The presentation will focus on the role of Individualism underpinned by Neo-liberalism ideology. The data propose that neo-liberal ideology, which endorses self-gratification, materialistic and individualistic ethics play an important role in decisions regarding humanitarian helping. The paper argues for the need for psychological research to engage more actively with the dilemmatic nature of moral reasoning in the humanitarian context, and to contextualize decisions about giving and helping within the socio-cultural and ideological landscape in which the helpers operate.

Keywords: humanitarianism, individualism, ideological dilemmas, discourse, neo-liberalism, prosocial behaviour

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Authors: ZhenlinJu, Christopher P. Vellano, RehanAkbani, Yiling Lu, Gordon B. Mills

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The epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a process by which epithelial cells acquire mesenchymal characteristics, such as profound disruption of cell-cell junctions, loss of apical-basolateral polarity, and extensive reorganization of the actin cytoskeleton to induce cell motility and invasion. A hallmark of EMT is its capacity to promote metastasis, which is due in part to activation of several transcription factors and subsequent downregulation of E-cadherin. Unfortunately, current approaches have yet to uncover robust protein marker sets that can classify tumors as possessing strong EMT signatures. In this study, we utilize reverse phase protein array (RPPA) data and consensus clustering methods to successfully classify a subset of cervical squamous cell carcinoma and endocervical adenocarcinoma (CESC) tumors into an EMT protein signaling group (EMT group). The overall survival (OS) of patients in the EMT group is significantly worse than those in the other Hormone and PI3K/AKT signaling groups. In addition to a shrinkage and selection method for linear regression (LASSO), we applied training/test set and Monte Carlo resampling approaches to identify a set of protein markers that predicts the EMT status of CESC tumors. We fit a logistic model to these protein markers and developed a classifier, which was fixed in the training set and validated in the testing set. The classifier robustly predicted the EMT status of the testing set with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.975 by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This method not only identifies a core set of proteins underlying an EMT signature in cervical cancer patients, but also provides a tool to examine protein predictors that drive molecular subtypes in other diseases.

Keywords: consensus clustering, TCGA CESC, Silhouette, Monte Carlo LASSO

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Authors: Chung Danbi, Linton Oliver, Whang Yoon-Jae

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Supermodularity, or complementarity, is a popular concept in economics which can characterize many objective functions such as utility, social welfare, and production functions. Further, supermodular dominance captures a preference for greater interdependence among inputs of those functions, and it can be applied to examine which input set would produce higher expected utility, social welfare, or production. Therefore, we propose and justify a consistent testing for a useful implication of supermodular dominance. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to explore the finite sample performance of our test, with critical values obtained from the recentered bootstrap method, with and without the selective recentering, and the subsampling method. Under various parameter settings, we confirmed that our test has reasonably good size and power performance. Finally, we apply our test to compare the geographic and distant knowledge spillover in terms of their effects on social welfare using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) patent data. We expect localized citing to supermodularly dominate distant citing if the geographic knowledge spillover engenders greater social welfare than distant knowledge spillover. Taking subgroups based on firm and patent characteristics, we found that there is industry-wise and patent subclass-wise difference in the pattern of supermodular dominance between localized and distant citing. We also compare the results from analyzing different time periods to see if the development of Internet and communication technology has changed the pattern of the dominance. In addition, to appropriately deal with the sparse nature of the data, we apply high-dimensional methods to efficiently select relevant data.

Keywords: supermodularity, supermodular dominance, stochastic dominance, Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap, subsampling

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Authors: G. Medkour Ishak-Boushaki, A. Taibi, M. Allab

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Quantitative environmental radioactivity measurements are needed to determine the level of exposure of a population to ionizing radiations and for the assessment of the associated risks. Gamma spectrometry remains a very powerful tool for the analysis of radionuclides present in an environmental sample but the basic problem in such measurements is the low rate of detected events. Using large environmental samples could help to get around this difficulty but, unfortunately, new issues are raised by gamma rays attenuation and self-absorption. Recently, a new method has been suggested, to detect and identify without quantification, in a short time, a gamma ray of a low count source. This method does not require, as usually adopted in gamma spectrometry measurements, a pulse height spectrum acquisition. It is based on a chronological record of each detected photon by simultaneous measurements of its energy ε and its arrival time τ on the detector, the pair parameters [ε,τ] defining an event mode sequence (EMS). The EMS serials are analyzed sequentially by a Bayesian approach to detect the presence of a given radioactive source. The main object of the present work is to test the applicability of this sequential approach in radioactive environmental materials detection. Moreover, for an appropriate health oversight of the public and of the concerned workers, the analysis has been extended to get a reliable quantification of the radionuclides present in environmental samples. For illustration, we consider as an example, the problem of detection and quantification of 238U. Monte Carlo simulated experience is carried out consisting in the detection, by a Ge(Hp) semiconductor junction, of gamma rays of 63 keV emitted by 234Th (progeny of 238U). The generated EMS serials are analyzed by a Bayesian inference. The application of the sequential Bayesian approach, in environmental radioactivity analysis, offers the possibility of reducing the measurements time without requiring large environmental samples and consequently avoids the attached inconvenient. The work is still in progress.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, event mode sequence, gamma spectrometry, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: M. R. Akbari , H. Yousefnia, E. Mirrezaei

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Range uncertainties of protons are currently a topic of interest in proton therapy. Two of the parameters that are often used to specify proton range are water equivalent thickness (WET) and water equivalent ratio (WER). Since WER values for a specific material is nearly constant at different proton energies, it is a more useful parameter to compare. In this study, WER values were calculated for different proton energies in polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), polystyrene (PS) and aluminum (Al) using FLUKA and TRIM codes. The results were compared with analytical, experimental and simulated SEICS code data obtained from the literature. In FLUKA simulation, a cylindrical phantom, 1000 mm in height and 300 mm in diameter, filled with the studied materials was simulated. A typical mono-energetic proton pencil beam in a wide range of incident energies usually applied in proton therapy (50 MeV to 225 MeV) impinges normally on the phantom. In order to obtain the WER values for the considered materials, cylindrical detectors, 1 mm in height and 20 mm in diameter, were also simulated along the beam trajectory in the phantom. In TRIM calculations, type of projectile, energy and angle of incidence, type of target material and thickness should be defined. The mode of 'detailed calculation with full damage cascades' was selected for proton transport in the target material. The biggest difference in WER values between the codes was 3.19%, 1.9% and 0.67% for Al, PMMA and PS, respectively. In Al and PMMA, the biggest difference between each code and experimental data was 1.08%, 1.26%, 2.55%, 0.94%, 0.77% and 0.95% for SEICS, FLUKA and SRIM, respectively. FLUKA and SEICS had the greatest agreement (≤0.77% difference in PMMA and ≤1.08% difference in Al, respectively) with the available experimental data in this study. It is concluded that, FLUKA and TRIM codes have capability for Bragg curves simulation and WER values calculation in the studied materials. They can also predict Bragg peak location and range of proton beams with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: water equivalent ratio, dosimetric materials, proton therapy, Monte Carlo simulations

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Authors: Manish Chand, Subhrojit Bagchi, R. Kumar

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A new dry tube (DT) has been installed in the tank of KAMINI research reactor, Kalpakkam India. This tube will be used for neutron activation analysis of small to large samples and testing of neutron detectors. DT tube is 375 cm height and 7.5 cm in diameter, located 35 cm away from the core centre. The experimental thermal flux at various axial positions inside the tube has been measured by irradiating the flux monitor (¹⁹⁷Au) at 20kW reactor power. The measured activity of ¹⁹⁸Au and the thermal cross section of ¹⁹⁷Au (n,γ) ¹⁹⁸Au reaction were used for experimental thermal flux measurement. The flux inside the tube varies from 10⁹ to 10¹⁰ and maximum flux was (1.02 ± 0.023) x10¹⁰ n cm⁻²s⁻¹ at 36 cm from the bottom of the tube. The Au and Zr foils without and with cadmium cover of 1-mm thickness were irradiated at the maximum flux position in the DT to find out the irradiation specific input parameters like sub-cadmium to epithermal neutron flux ratio (f) and the epithermal neutron flux shape factor (α). The f value was 143 ± 5, indicates about 99.3% thermal neutron component and α value was -0.2886 ± 0.0125, indicates hard epithermal neutron spectrum due to insufficient moderation. The measured flux profile has been validated using theoretical model of KAMINI reactor through Monte Carlo N-Particle Code (MCNP). In MCNP, the complex geometry of the entire reactor is modelled in 3D, ensuring minimum approximations for all the components. Continuous energy cross-section data from ENDF-B/VII.1 as well as S (α, β) thermal neutron scattering functions are considered. The neutron flux has been estimated at the corresponding axial locations of the DT using mesh tally. The thermal flux obtained from the experiment shows good agreement with the theoretically predicted values by MCNP, it was within ± 10%. It can be concluded that this MCNP model can be utilized for calculating other important parameters like neutron spectra, dose rate, etc. and multi elemental analysis can be carried out by irradiating the sample at maximum flux position using measured f and α parameters by k₀-NAA standardization.

Keywords: neutron flux, neutron activation analysis, neutron flux shape factor, MCNP, Monte Carlo N-Particle Code

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, combined approach, point estimate method, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Irene Perez Lopez

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Delta and estuary cities are spaces constantly evolving, incessantly altered by the ever-changing actions of water transformation. Strategies that incorporate comprehensive and integrated approaches to planning and design with water will play a powerful role in defining new types of flood defense. These strategies will encourage more resilient and active urban environments, allowing for new spatial and functional programs. This abstract presents the undergoing research in Newcastle, the first urbanized delta in New South Wales (Australia), and the region's second-biggest catchment and estuary. The research methodology is organized in three phases: 1) a projective cartography that analyses maps and data across the region's recorded history, identifying past and present constraints, and predicting future conditions. The cartography aids to identify worst-case scenarios, revealing the implications of land reclamation that have not considered the confronting evolution of climate change and its conflicts with inhabitation; 2) the cartographic studies identify the areas under threat and form the basis for further interdisciplinary research, complimented by community consultation, to reduce flood risk and increase urban resilience and livability; 3) a speculative or prospective phase of design with water to generate evidence-based guidelines that strengthen urban resilience of shorelines and flood prone areas.

Keywords: coastal defense, design, urban resilience, mapping

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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Authors: Ashutosh Kumar, Irene M. C. Lo

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Ever since the discovery of TiO2 for decomposition of cyanide in water, it has been investigated extensively for the photocatalytic degradation of environmental pollutants, and became the most practical and prevalent photocatalyst. The superiority of TiO2 is due to its chemical and biological inertness, nontoxicity, strong oxidizing power and cost-effectiveness. However, during degradation of pollutants in wastewater, it suffers from problems, such as (a) separation after use, and (b) its poor photocatalytic performance under visible light irradiation (~45% of the solar spectrum). In order to bridge the research gaps, N-TiO2@SiO2@Fe3O4 nanophotocatalysts of average size 19 nm and effective surface area 47 m2 gm-1 were synthesized using sol-gel method. The characterization was performed using BET, TEM-EDX, VSM and XRD. The performance was improved by considering different factors involved during the synthesis, such as calcination temperature, amount of Fe3O4 nanoparticles used and amount of urea used for N-doping. The final nanophotocatalyst was calcined at 500 °C which was able to degrade 94% of the ibuprofen within 5 h of irradiation time. Under the influence of ~200 mT electromagnetic field, 95% nanophotocatalysts separation efficiency was achieved within 20-25 min. Moreover, the effect of different visible light source of similar irradiance, such as compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and light emitting diode (LED), is also investigated in this research. The performance of nanophotocatalysts was found to be comparatively higher under ~310 µW cm-2 irradiance with peak emissive wavelengths of 543 nm emitted by CFL. Therefore, a promising visible-light-driven magnetically separable TiO2-based nanophotocatalysts was synthesized for the efficient degradation of ibuprofen.

Keywords: ibuprofen, magnetic N-TiO2, photocatalysis, visible light sources

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Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

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Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: W. Benstaali, A. Belasri

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In this work we study a planar lamp filled with neon-xenon gas. We use a one-dimensional particle in a cell with Monte Carlo simulation (PIC-MCC) to investigate the effect xenon concentration on the energy deposited on excitation, ionization and ions. A Xe-Ne discharge is studied for a gas pressure of 400 torr. The results show an efficient Xe20-Ne mixture with an applied voltage of 1.2KV; the xenon excitation energy represents 65% form total energy dissipated in the discharge. We have also studied electrical properties and the energy balance a discharge for Xe50-Ne which needs a voltage of 2kv; the xenon energy is than more important.

Keywords: dielectric barrier discharge, efficiency, excitation, lamps

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. Finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: bootstrap, Instrumental Variable, Edgeworth expansions, Saddlepoint expansions

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Authors: Anthony Ayodeji Adegoke, Olayinka Ayobami Aiyegoro, Thor Axel Stenstrom

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A study to investigate the species diversities, antibiogram and antibiotic resistance genes in Staphylococcus species from raw meat and dairy products collected from an abattoir and a farm shop of a research institute in Irene, South Africa over a six-month period was conducted. Polymerase Chain Reaction was used to speciate the bacteria and to detect the presence and otherwise of resistance genes. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed by disk diffusion method on Mueller-Hinton agar according to the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute standards. A total of twenty-six (26) antibiotics were used to determine the antibiotic susceptibility. S. xylosus was the predominant isolate with 30% total occurrence, followed by S. epidermis, S. aureus, S. saprophyticus and S. haemolyticus with 25%, 15%, 15%, and 10% abundance respectively. The isolates were resistant to ceftezidime, gentamycin, nalidixic acid, nortrafuration, ampicillin, penicillin, oxytetracycline, tetracycline, doxycycline, clindamycin and lincomycin. mecA genes was detected among the methicillin resistant Staphylococcus species (MRSS) but no vancomycin resistance genes (van A and van B) were detected in these isolates. The presence of MRSS and multidrug resistant Staphylococcus species in meat affirms the need to avoid consumption of partially cooked meat currently rampant in South Africa, to avoid the spread of difficult to control pathogens in epidemiological proportion.

Keywords: Staphylococcus species, antibiotics, antibiotic resistance genes, food products, methicillin resistance, mecA gene

Procedia PDF Downloads 273