Search results for: post disasters

Authors: T. Mcgraw, F. N. Morin, N. Desai

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Background: Antimicrobial resistance is a critical issue in global health care and a significant contributor to increased patient morbidity and mortality. Suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) is a key area of inappropriate antibiotic prescription in pediatrics. Management patterns of infectious diseases have been shown to vary by provider type within a single setting. The aim of this study was to assess compliance with national UTI management guidelines by nurse practitioners in a pediatric emergency department (ED). Methods: This was a post-hoc analysis of a retrospective cohort study to review and evaluate visits to a tertiary care freestanding pediatric emergency department. Patients were included if they were 60 days to 36 months old and discharged with a diagnosis of UTI or ‘rule-out UTI’ between July 2015 and July 2020. Primary outcome measure was proportion of visits seen by Nurse Practitioners (NP) which were associated with national guideline compliance in the diagnosis and treatment of suspected UTI. We performed descriptive statistics and comparative analyses to determine differences in practice patterns between NPs, and physicians. Results: A total of 636 charts were reviewed, of which 402 patients met inclusion criteria. 17 patients were treated by NPs, 385 were treated by either Pediatric Emergency Medicine physicians (PEM) or non-PEM physicians. Overall, the proportion of infants receiving guideline-compliant care was 25.9% (21.8-30.4%). Of those who were prescribed antibiotics, 79.6% (74.7-83.8%) received first line guideline recommended therapy and 58.9% (53.8-63.8%) received fully compliant therapy with respect to age, dose, duration, and frequency. In patients treated by NPs, 16/17 (94%(95% CI:73.0-99.0)) required antibiotics, 15/16 (93%(95% CI: 71.7-98.9)) were treated with first line agent (cephalexin), 8/16 (50%(95% CI:28-72)) were guideline compliant of dose and duration. 5/8 (63%(95% CI:30.6-86.3)) were noncompliant for dose being too high. There was no difference in receiving guideline compliant empiric antibiotic therapy between physicians and nurse practitioners (OR: 0.837 CI: 0.302-2.69). Conclusion: In this post-hoc analysis, guideline noncompliance by nurse practitioners is common in children tested and treated for UTIs in a pediatric emergency department. Care by a Nurse Practitioner was not associated with greater rate of noncompliance than care by a Pediatric Emergency Medicine physician. Future appropriately powered studies may focus on confirming these results.

Keywords: antibiotic stewardship, infectious disease, nurse practitioner, urinary tract infection

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Authors: İlhami Karahanoglu, Oguz Ceylan

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As its well-known definitions; systemic risk refers to whole economic system down-turn movement even collapse together in very severe cases. In fact, it points out the contagion effects of the defaults. Such a risk is can be depicted with the famous Chinese game of falling domino stones. During and after the Bear & Sterns and Lehman Brothers cases, it was well understood that there is a very strong effect of systemic risk in financial services sector. In this study, we concentrate on the existence of systemic risk in Turkish Banking Sector based upon the Halkbank Case during the end month of 2013; there was a political turmoil in Turkey in which the close relatives of the upper politicians were involved in illegal trading activities. In that operation, the CEO of Halkbank was also arrested and in investigation, Halkbank was considered as part of such illegal actions. That operation had an impact on Halkbanks stock value. The Halkbank stock value during that time interval decreased remarkably, the distributional profile of stock return changed and became more volatile as well as more skewed. In this study, the daily returns of 5 leading banks in Turkish banking sector were used to obtain 48 return distributions (for each month, 90-days-back stock value returns are used) of 5 banks for the period 12/2011-12/2013 (pre operation period) and 12/2013-12/2015 (post operation period). When those distributions are compared with timely manner, interestingly; the distribution of the 5 other leading banks in Turkey, public or private, had also distribution profiles which was different from the past 2011-2013 period just like Halkbank. Those 5 big banks, whose stock values are monitored with sub index in Istanbul stock exchange (BIST) as BN10, had more skewed distribution just following the Halkbank stock return movement during the post operation period, with lover mean value and as well higher volatility. In addition, the correlation between the stock value return distributions of the leading banks after Halkbank case, where the returns are more skewed to the left, increased (which is measured in monthly base before and after the operation). The dependence between those banks was stronger under the case where the stock values were falling compared with the normal market condition. Such distributional effect of stock returns between the leading banks in Turkey, which is valid for down sub-market (financial/banking sector) condition, can be evaluated as an evidence for the existence of contagious effect and systemic risk.

Keywords: financial risk, systemic risk, banking sector, return distribution, dependency structure

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Authors: Petra Suchovska

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The spirit of post-modernity remains chaotic and obscure. Geopolitical rivalries raging at the more extreme levels and the ability of intellectual community to explain the entropy of global affairs has been diminishing. The Western-led idea of globalisation imposed upon the world does not seem to bring the bright future for human progress anymore, and its architects lose much of global control, as the strong non-western cultural entities develop new forms of post-modern establishments. The overall growing cultural misunderstanding and mistrust are expressions of political impotence to deal with the inner contradictions within the contemporary phenomenon (capitalism, economic globalisation) that embrace global society. The drivers and effects of global restructuring must be understood in the context of systems and principles reflecting on true complexity of society. The purpose of this paper is to set out some ideas about how cybernetics can contribute to understanding international system structure and analyse possible world futures. “IS Cybernetics” would apply to system thinking and cybernetic principles in IR in order to analyse and handle the complexity of social phenomena from global perspective. “IS cybernetics” would be, for now, the subfield of IR, concerned with applying theories and methodologies from cybernetics and system sciences by offering concepts and tools for addressing problems holistically. It would bring order to the complex relations between disciplines that IR touches upon. One of its tasks would be to map, measure, tackle and find the principles of dynamics and structure of social forces that influence human behaviour and consequently cause political, technological and economic structural reordering, forming and reforming the international system. “IS cyberneticists” task would be to understand the control mechanisms that govern the operation of international society (and the sub-systems in their interconnection) and only then suggest better ways operate these mechanisms on sublevels as cultural, political, technological, religious and other. “IS cybernetics” would also strive to capture the mechanism of social-structural changes in time, which would open space for syntheses between IR and historical sociology. With the cybernetic distinction between first order studies of observed systems and the second order study of observing systems, IS cybernetics would also provide a unifying epistemological and methodological, conceptual framework for multilateralism and multiple modernities theory.

Keywords: cybernetics, historical sociology, international system, systems theory

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Authors: Sung Ho Oh

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The advanced traffic lights, the system of traffic information collection and provision, the CCTVs for traffic control, and the traffic information center were installed in Asuncion, capital of Paraguay. After pre-post comparison of the installation, significant changes were found. Even though the traffic volumes were increased, travel speed was higher, so that travel time from origin to destination was decreased. the saving values for travel time, gas cost, and environmental cost are about 47 million US dollars per year. Satisfaction survey results for the installation were presented with statistical significance analysis.

Keywords: advanced transport management systems, effectiveness, Paraguay, traffic lights

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Authors: Pablo González Álvarez, Anna Vinaixa Vergés, Paula Sol Ventura, Paula Fernández, Mercè Redorta, Gemma Ginovart Galiana, Maria Méndez Hernández

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Context: The use of music therapy is gaining popularity worldwide, and it has shown positive effects in neonatology. Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol has recently established a music therapy unit and initiated a project in their neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Research Aim: The aim of this study is to measure the effect of a music therapy intervention in the NICU of Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol in Spain. Methodology: The study will be an observational analytical case-control study. All newborns admitted to the neonatology unit, both term and preterm, and their parents will be offered a session of music therapy. Data will be collected from families who receive at least two music therapy sessions. Maternal and paternal anxiety levels will be measured through a pre- and post-intervention test. Findings: The study aims to demonstrate the benefits and acceptance of music therapy by patients, parents, and healthcare workers in the neonatal unit. The findings are expected to show a reduction in maternal and paternal anxiety levels following the music therapy sessions. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the effectiveness of music therapy in neonatal care. It will provide evidence of the acceptance and potential benefits of music therapy in reducing anxiety levels in both parents and babies in the NICU setting. Data Collection: Data will be collected from families who receive at least two music therapy sessions. This will include pre- and post-intervention test results to measure anxiety levels. Analysis Procedures: The collected data will be analyzed using appropriate statistical methods to determine the impact of music therapy on reducing anxiety levels in parents. Questions Addressed: - What is the effect of music therapy on maternal anxiety levels? - What is the effect of music therapy on paternal anxiety levels? - What is the acceptability and perceived benefits of music therapy among patients and healthcare workers in the NICU? Conclusion: The study aims to provide evidence supporting the value of music therapy in the neonatal intensive care unit. It seeks to demonstrate the positive effect of music therapy on reducing anxiety levels among parents.

Keywords: neonatology, music therapy, neonatal intensive care unit, babies, parents

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Authors: Beth Vale

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Academic research has often neglected the city after dark. Surprisingly little consideration has been given to the every night life of cities: the spatial tactics and creative insurgencies of urban residents when night falls. The focus on ‘pleasure’ in the nocturnal city has often negated the subtle politics of night-time play, embedded in expressions of identity, attachment and resistance. This paper investigates Johannesburg nightclubs as sites of quotidian political labour, through which young people contest social space and their place in it, thereby contributing to the city’s effective and socio-political cartography. The tactical remodelling of the nocturnal city through nightclubbing traces lines of desire (material, emotional, sexual), affiliation, and fear. These in turn map onto young people’s expressions of their social and political identities, as well as their attempts at place-making in a ‘post-apartheid’ context. By examining the micro-politics of the cities' nightclubs, this paper speaks back to an earlier post-94 literature, which regularly characterised Johannesburg youth as superficial, individualist and idealistic. Similarly, some might position nightclubs as sites of frivolous consumption or liberatory permissiveness. Yet because nightclub spaces are racialised, classed and gendered, historically-signified and socially regulated, they are also profoundly political. Through ordinary encounters on the cities' dancefloors, young Jo’burgers are imagining, contesting and negotiating their socio-political identities and indeed their claims to the city. Meanwhile, the politics of this generation of youth, who are increasingly critical of the utopian post-apartheid city, are being increasingly inserted and coopted into night-time cultures. Data for this study was gathered through five months of ethnographic fieldwork in Johannesburg nightclubs, including over 120 hours of participant observation and in-depth interviews with organisers and partygoers. Interviewees recognised that parties, rather than being simple frivolity, are a cacophony of celebration, mourning, worship, rage, rebellion and attachment. Countering standard associations between partying and escapism, party planners, venue owners and nightclub audiences were infusing night-time infrastructures with the aesthetics of politics and protest. Not unlike parties, local political assemblies so often rely on music, dance, the occupation of space, and a heaving crowd. References to social movements, militancy and anti-establishment emerged in nightclub themes, dress codes and décor. Metaphors of fire crossed over between party and protest, both of which could be described as having ‘been lit’ or having ‘brought flames’. More so, young people’s articulations of the city’s night-time geography, and their place in it, reflected articulations of race, class and ideological affiliation. The location, entrance fees and stylistic choices of one’s chosen club destination demarcated who was welcome, while also signalling membership to a particular politics (whether progressive or materialistic, inclusive or elitist, mainstream or counter-culture). Because of their ability to divide and unite, aggravate and titillate, mask and reveal, club cultures might offer a mirror to the complex socialities of a generation of Jo’burg youth, as they inhabit, and bring into being, a contemporary South African city.

Keywords: affect, Johannesburg, nightclub, nocturnal city, politics

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Authors: Gideon Baffoe, Hirotaka Matsuda

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Rural livelihood systems are known to be inherently vulnerable. Attempt to reduce vulnerability is linked to developing resilience to both internal and external shocks, thereby increasing the overall sustainability of livelihood systems. The shocks and stresses could be induced by natural processes such as the climate and/or by social dynamics such as institutional failure. In this wise, livelihood vulnerability is understood as a combined effect of biophysical, economic, and social processes. However, previous empirical studies on livelihood vulnerability in the context of rural areas across the globe have tended to focus more on climate-induced vulnerability assessment with few studies empirically partially considering the multiple dimensions of livelihood vulnerability. This has left a gap in our understanding of the subject. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), this study aims to comprehensively assess the livelihood vulnerability level of rural households using Ehiamenkyene, a community in the forest zone of Eastern Ghana as a case study. Though the present study adopts the LVI approach, it differs from the original framework in two respects; (1) it introduces institutional influence into the framework and (2) it appreciates the gender differences in livelihood vulnerability. The study utilized empirical data collected from 110 households’ in the community. The overall study results show a high livelihood vulnerability situation in the community with male-headed households likely to be more vulnerable than their female counterparts. Out of the seven subcomponents assessed, only two (socio-demographic profile and livelihood strategies) recorded low vulnerability scores of less than 0.5 with the remaining five (health status, food security, water accessibility, institutional influence and natural disasters and climate variability) recording scores above 0.5, with institutional influence being the component with the highest impact score. The results suggest that to improve the livelihood conditions of the people; there is the need to prioritize issues related to the operations of both internal and external institutions, health status, food security, water and climate variability in the community.

Keywords: assessment, gender, livelihood, rural, vulnerability

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Authors: F. Rarbi, D. Dzahini, W. Uhring

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In this paper, a dynamic and power efficient 8-bit and 100-MSPS Successive Approximation Register (SAR) Analog-to-Digital Converter (ADC) is presented. The circuit uses a non-differential capacitive Digital-to-Analog (DAC) architecture segmented by 2. The prototype is produced in a commercial 65-nm 1P7M CMOS technology with 1.2-V supply voltage. The size of the core ADC is 208.6 x 103.6 µm². The post-layout noise simulation results feature a SNR of 46.9 dB at Nyquist frequency, which means an effective number of bit (ENOB) of 7.5-b. The total power consumption of this SAR ADC is only 1.55 mW at 100-MSPS. It achieves then a figure of merit of 85.6 fJ/step.

Keywords: CMOS analog to digital converter, dynamic comparator, image sensor application, successive approximation register

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Authors: Alessandra Rossodivita, Alexei Tikhomirov, Andrey Trufanov, Nikolay Kinash, Olga Berestneva, Svetlana Nikitina, Fabio Casati, Alessandro Visconti, Tommaso Saporito

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It is well known that world and national societies are exposed to diverse threats: anthropogenic, technological, and natural. Anthropogenic ones are of greater risks and, thus, attract special interest to researchers within wide spectrum of disciplines in efforts to lower the pertinent risks. Some researchers showed by means of multilayered, complex network models how media promotes the prevention of disease spread. To go further, not only are mass-media sources included in scope the paper suggests but also personificated social bots (socbots) linked according to reflexive theory. The novel scope considers information spread over conscious and unconscious agents while counteracting both natural and man-made threats, i.e., infections and terrorist hazards. Contrary to numerous publications on misinformation disseminated by ‘bad’ bots within social networks, this study focuses on ‘good’ bots, which should be mobilized to counter the former ones. These social bots deployed mixture with real social actors that are engaged in concerted actions at spreading, receiving and analyzing information. All the contemporary complex network platforms (multiplexes, interdependent networks, combined stem networks et al.) are comprised to describe and test socbots activities within competing information sharing tools, namely mass-media hubs, social networks, messengers, and e-mail at all phases of disasters. The scope and concomitant techniques present evidence that embedding such socbots into information sharing process crucially change the network topology of actor interactions. The change might improve or impair robustness of social network environment: it depends on who and how controls the socbots. It is demonstrated that the topological approach elucidates techno-social processes within the field and outline the roadmap to a safer world.

Keywords: complex network platform, counterterrorism, information sharing topology, social bots

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Authors: Emma Van Schie

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The purpose of this study is to use mixed methods research to create typologies of the performance of firms in the cotton-to-clothing value chain in Zimbabwe, and to use these typologies to achieve the objective of adding to the small pool of studies on Sub-Saharan African value chains performing in the context of economic liberalisation and achieving development. The uptake of economic liberalisation measures across Sub-Saharan Africa has led to the restructuring of many value chains. While this action has resulted in some African economies positively reintegrating into global commodity chains, it has also been deeply problematic for the development impacts of the majority of others. Over and above this, these nations have been placed at a disadvantage due to the fact that there is little scholarly and policy research on approaches for managing economic liberalisation and value chain development in the unique African context. As such, the central question facing these less successful cases is how they can integrate into the world economy whilst still fostering their development. This paper draws from quantitative questionnaires and qualitative interviews with 28 stakeholders in the cotton-to-clothing value chain in Zimbabwe. This paper examines the performance of firms in the value chain, and the subsequent local socio-economic development impacts that are affected by the revival of the cotton-to-clothing value chain following its collapse in the wake of Zimbabwe’s uptake of economic liberalisation measures. Firstly, the paper finds the relatively undocumented characteristics and structures of firms in the value chain in the post-economic liberalisation era. As well as this, it finds typologies of the status of firms as either being in operation, closed down, or being placed under judicial management and the common characteristics that these typologies hold. The key findings show how a mixture of macro and local level aspects, such as value chain governance and the management structure of a business, leads to the most successful typology that is able to add value to the chain in the context of economic liberalisation, and thus unlock its socioeconomic development potential. These typologies are used in making industry and policy recommendations on achieving this balance between the macro and the local level, as well as recommendations for further academic research for more typologies and models on the case of cotton value chains in Sub-Saharan Africa. In doing so, this study adds to the small collection of academic evidence and policy recommendations for the challenges that African nations face when trying to incorporate into global commodity chains in attempts to benefit from their associated socioeconomic development opportunities.

Keywords: cotton-to-clothing value chain, economic liberalisation, restructuring value chain, typologies of firms, value chain governance, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Nguyen-Thanh Son

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Flood is among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. The flood disasters especially affect the poor people in rural areas, who are heavily dependent on agriculture and have lower incomes. Cambodia is identified as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, ranked 13th out of 181 countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. Flood monitoring is thus a strategic priority at national and regional levels because policymakers need reliable spatial and temporal information on flood-prone areas to form successful monitoring programs to reduce possible impacts on the country’s economy and people’s likelihood. This study aims to develop methods for flood mapping and assessment from MODIS data in Cambodia. We processed the data for the period from 2000 to 2017, following three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time-series vegetation and water surface indices, (2) delineation of flood-prone areas, and (3) accuracy assessment. The results of flood mapping were verified with the ground reference data, indicating the overall accuracy of 88.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.77, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement between the flood-mapping area and ground reference data, with the correlation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.94. The seasonally flooded areas observed for 2010, 2015, and 2016 were remarkably smaller than other years, mainly attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbated by impacts of climate change. Eventually, although several sources potentially lowered the mapping accuracy of flood-prone areas, including image cloud contamination, mixed-pixel issues, and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, our methods indicated the satisfactory results for delineating spatiotemporal evolutions of floods. The results in the form of quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood distributions could be beneficial to policymakers in evaluating their management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of floods on agriculture and people’s likelihood in the country.

Keywords: MODIS, flood, mapping, Cambodia

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Authors: Denise F. Brown, Melina McConatha

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African Americans utilizing the art of vocal expressions, particularly for self-expression, has been a historical avenue of advocating for social justice and human rights. Vocal expressions can take many forms, such as singing, poetry, storytelling, and acting. Many well-known artists, politicians, leaders, and teachers used their voices to promote the causes and concerns of the African American community as well as the expression of their own experiences of being 'black' in America. The purpose of this project was to evaluate the perceptions of African American students in utilizing their voices for self-awareness, interview skills, and social change after attending a three-part workshop on vocal advocacy. This research utilized the framework of black feminism to understand empowerment in advocacy and self-expression. Students participated in learning about the power of their voices, and what purpose presence, and passion they discovered through the Immersive Voice workshop. There were three areas covered in the workshop. The first area was the power of the voice, the second area was the application of vocal passion, and the third area was applying the vocal power to express personal interest, interests of advocating for others, and confidence and speaking to others to further careers, i.e., using vocal power for job interviewing skills. The students were instructed to prepare for the workshops by completing a pre-workshop open-ended survey. There were a total of 15 students that participated. After the workshop ended, the students were instructed to complete a post-workshop survey. The surveys were assessed by evaluating both themes and codes from student's written feedback. From the pre-workshop survey, students were given a survey for them to provide feedback regarding the power of voice prior to participating in the workshops. From the student's responses, the theme (advocating for self and others) emerged as it related to student's feedback on what it means to advocate. There were three codes that led to the theme, having knowledge about advocating for self and others, gaining knowledge to advocate for self and others, and using that knowledge to advocate for self and others. After the students completed participation in the workshops, a post workshop- survey was given to the students. Students' feedback was assessed, and the same theme emerged, 'advocating for self and others.' The codes related to the theme, however, were different and included using vocal power (a term students learned during the workshop) to represent self, represent others, and obtain a job/career. In conclusion, the results of the survey showed that students still perceived advocating as speaking up for themselves and other people. After the workshop, students still continued to associate advocacy with helping themselves and helping others but were able to be more specific about how the sound of their voice could help in advocating, and how they could use their voice to represent themselves in getting a job or starting a career.

Keywords: advocacy, command, self-expression, voice

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Authors: Tolulope A. Olukunle

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Plastic waste management has emerged as one of the greatest challenges facing developing countries. This paper describes the design of various components of a plastic shredder. This machine is widely used in industries and recycling plants. The introduction of plastic shredder machine will promote reduction of post-consumer plastic waste accumulation and serves as a system for wealth creation and empowerment through conversion of waste into economically viable products. In this design research, a 10 kW electric motor with a rotational speed of 500 rpm was chosen to drive the shredder. A pulley size of 400 mm is mounted on the electric motor at a distance of 1000 mm away from the shredder pulley. The shredder rotational speed is 300 rpm.

Keywords: design, machine, plastic waste, recycling

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Authors: Volkan Gulsen

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This paper attempts to indicate the main class dynamics of the Brexit process in a Gramscian theoretical framework. It further aims to point out the influence of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom on the European Union class structure. It defines the unification process of the European Union as a passive revolution. In that way, the Brexit process has been described as a moment of negation in the European Union history of class struggle. It will be argued that the withdrawal of the United Kingdom has already altered the European class structure from the embedded neoliberal structure to a more corporate-liberal one.

Keywords: brexit, gramsci, passive revolution, post-neoliberalism

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Authors: Imam Muthohar, Budi Hartono, Sigit Priyanto, Hardiansyah Hardiansyah

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The eruption of Merapi Volcano in Yogyakarta, Indonesia in 2010 caused many casualties due to minimum preparedness in facing disaster. Increasing population capacity and evacuating to safe places become very important to minimize casualties. Regional government through the Regional Disaster Management Agency has divided disaster-prone areas into three parts, namely ring 1 at a distance of 10 km, ring 2 at a distance of 15 km and ring 3 at a distance of 20 km from the center of Mount Merapi. The success of the evacuation is fully supported by road network infrastructure as a way to rescue in an emergency. This research attempts to model evacuation process based on the rise of refugees in ring 1, expanded to ring 2 and finally expanded to ring 3. The model was developed using SATURN (Simulation and Assignment of Traffic to Urban Road Networks) program version 11.3. 12W, involving 140 centroid, 449 buffer nodes, and 851 links across Yogyakarta Special Region, which was aimed at making a preliminary identification of road networks considered vulnerable to disaster. An assumption made to identify vulnerability was the improvement of road network performance in the form of flow and travel times on the coverage of ring 1, ring 2, ring 3, Sleman outside the ring, Yogyakarta City, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunung Kidul. The research results indicated that the performance increase in the road networks existing in the area of ring 2, ring 3, and Sleman outside the ring. The road network in ring 1 started to increase when the evacuation was expanded to ring 2 and ring 3. Meanwhile, the performance of road networks in Yogyakarta City, Bantul, Kulon Progo, and Gunung Kidul during the evacuation period simultaneously decreased in when the evacuation areas were expanded. The results of preliminary identification of the vulnerability have determined that the road networks existing in ring 1, ring 2, ring 3 and Sleman outside the ring were considered vulnerable to the evacuation of Mount Merapi eruption. Therefore, it is necessary to pay a great deal of attention in order to face the disasters that potentially occur at anytime.

Keywords: model, evacuation, SATURN, vulnerability

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Authors: Anya Glikman, Anastasia Gorodzeisky

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Since the late 1990th labor immigration and its consequences on the society have become one of the most frequently discussed and debated issues in Russia. Social scientists point that the negative attitudes towards immigrants among Russian majority population is widespread, and their level, at least, twice as high as their level in most other European countries. Moreover, recent study by Gorodzeisky, Glikman and Maskyleison (2014) demonstrates that the two sets of individual level predictors of anti-foreigner sentiment – socio-economic status and conservative views and ideologies – that have been repeatedly proved in research in Western countries are not effective in predicting of anti-foreigner sentiment in Post-Socialist Russia. Apparently, the social mechanisms underlying anti-foreigner sentiment in Western countries, which are characterized by stable regimes and relatively long immigration histories, do not play a significant role in the explanation of anti-foreigner sentiment in Post-Socialist Russia. The present study aims to examine alternative possible sources of anti-foreigner sentiment in Russia while controlling for socio-economic position of individuals and conservative views. More specifically, following the research literature on the topic worldwide, we aim to examine whether and to what extent human values (such as tradition, universalism, safety and power), ethnic residential segregation, fear of crime and exposure to mass media affect anti-foreigner sentiments in Russia. To do so, we estimate a series of multivariate regression equations using the data obtained from 2012 European Social Survey. The national representative sample consists of 2337 Russian born respondents. Descriptive results reveal that about 60% percent of Russians view the impact of immigrants on the country in negative terms. Further preliminary analysis show that anti-foreigner sentiments are associated with exposer to mass media as well as with fear of crime. Specifically, respondents who devoted more time watching news on TV channels and respondents who express higher levels of fear of crime tend to report higher levels of anti-immigrants sentiments. The findings would be discussed in light of sociological perspective and the context of Russian society.

Keywords: anti-immigrant sentiments, fear of crime, human values, mass media, Russia

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Authors: Ridha Zgolli, Ahmed Belhaj, Maroua Ennouri

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This study presents a new method to predict cavitation area that may be eroded. It is based on the post-treatment of URANS simulations in cavitant flows. The most RANS calculations with incompressible consideration are based on cavitation model using mixture fluid with density (ρm) calculated as a function of liquid density (ρliq), vapour or gas density (ρvap) and vapour or gas volume fraction α (ρm = αρvap + (1-α) ρliq). The calculations are performed on hydrofoil geometries and compared with experimental works concerning flows characteristics (size of pocket, pressure, velocity). We present here the used cavitation model and the approach followed to evaluate the value of α fixing the shape of pocket around wall before collapsing.

Keywords: flows, CFD, cavitation, erosion

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Authors: John Lamb, Robert Epstein, Vasundhara L. Bhupathi, Sanjeev Kumar Marimekala

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As we enter the new era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Cloud Computing, we mostly rely on the Machine and Natural Language Processing capabilities of AI, and Energy Efficient Hardware and Software Devices in almost every industry sector. In these industry sectors, much emphasis is on developing new and innovative methods for producing and conserving energy and sustaining the depletion of natural resources. The core pillars of sustainability are economic, environmental, and social, which is also informally referred to as the 3 P's (People, Planet and Profits). The 3 P's play a vital role in creating a core Sustainability Model in the Enterprise. Natural resources are continually being depleted, so there is more focus and growing demand for renewable energy. With this growing demand, there is also a growing concern in many industries on how to reduce carbon emissions and conserve natural resources while adopting sustainability in corporate business models and policies. In our paper, we would like to discuss the driving forces such as Climate changes, Natural Disasters, Pandemic, Disruptive Technologies, Corporate Policies, Scaled Business Models and Emerging social media and AI platforms that influence the 3 main pillars of Sustainability (3P’s). Through this paper, we would like to bring an overall perspective on enterprise strategies and the primary focus on bringing cultural shifts in adapting energy-efficient operational models. Overall, many industries across the globe are incorporating core sustainability principles such as reducing energy costs, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reducing waste and increasing recycling, adopting advanced monitoring and metering infrastructure, reducing server footprint and compute resources (Shared IT services, Cloud computing, and Application Modernization) with the vision for a sustainable environment.

Keywords: climate change, pandemic, disruptive technology, government policies, business model, machine learning and natural language processing, AI, social media platform, cloud computing, advanced monitoring, metering infrastructure

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Guelfo Carbone

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The paper focuses on Heidegger’s 1919-1920 early research in order to point out his hermeneutical phenomenology of the life-world, arguing that the concept of world (Welt) is the main philosophical trigger for the phenomenology of factical life. Accordingly, the argument of the paper is twofold: First, the phenomenological hermeneutics of facticity is preceded both chronologically and philosophically by an original phenomenological investigation of the life-world, in which the world is construed as the context of the givenness of life. Second, the phenomenology of life-world anticipates the question of being (Seinsfrage), but it also follows it, once this latter is shattered, the question of world as event remaining at the very core of Heidegger’s last meditations on the dominion of technology and the post-metaphysical abode of human beings on earth.

Keywords: Heidegger, hermeneutics, life-world, phenomenology

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Authors: Ankit Shah, R. K. Shrivastava

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Flood and drought are two main features of hydrology which affect the human life. Floods are natural disasters which cause millions of rupees’ worth of damage each year in India and the whole world. Flood causes destruction in form of life and property. An accurate estimate of the flood damage potential is a key element to an effective, nationwide flood damage abatement program. Also, the increase in demand of water due to increase in population, industrial and agricultural growth, has let us know that though being a renewable resource it cannot be taken for granted. We have to optimize the use of water according to circumstances and conditions and need to harness it which can be done by construction of hydraulic structures. For their safe and proper functioning of hydraulic structures, we need to predict the flood magnitude and its impact. Hydraulic structures play a key role in harnessing and optimization of flood water which in turn results in safe and maximum use of water available. Mainly hydraulic structures are constructed on ungauged sites. There are two methods by which we can estimate flood viz. generation of Unit Hydrographs and Flood Frequency Analysis. In this study, Regional Flood Frequency Analysis has been employed. There are many methods for estimating the ‘Regional Flood Frequency Analysis’ viz. Index Flood Method. National Environmental and Research Council (NERC Methods), Multiple Regression Method, etc. However, none of the methods can be considered universal for every situation and location. The Narmada basin is located in Central India. It is drained by most of the tributaries, most of which are ungauged. Therefore it is very difficult to estimate flood on these tributaries and in the main river. As mentioned above Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s and Multiple Regression Method is used for determination of Regional flood Frequency. The annual peak flood data of 20 sites gauging sites of Narmada Basin is used in the present study to determine the Regional Flood relationships. Homogeneity of the considered sites is determined by using the Index Flood Method. Flood relationships obtained by both the methods are compared with each other, and it is found that ANN is more reliable than Multiple Regression Method for the present study area.

Keywords: artificial neural network, index flood method, multi layer perceptrons, multiple regression, Narmada basin, regional flood frequency

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Authors: Hyo Seon Choi, Ju Sun Kim, DY Kim

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Introduction: This study was aimed to evaluate temporo-spatial patterns during the reach and grasp task in hemiplegic stroke patients and to identify movement pattern according to severity of motor impairment. Method: 29 subacute post-stroke patients were enrolled in this study. The temporo-spatial and kinematic data were obtained during reach and grasp task through 3D motion analysis (VICON). The reach and grasp task was composed of four sub-tasks: reach (T1), transport to mouth (T2), transport back to table (T3) and return (T4). The movement time, joint angle and sum of deviation angles from normative data were compared between affected side and unaffected side. They were also compared between two groups (mild to moderate group: 28~66, severe group: 0~27) divided by upper-Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA) scale. Result: In affected side, total time and durations of all four tasks were significantly longer than those in unaffected side (p < 0.001). The affected side demonstrated significant larger shoulder abduction, shoulder internal rotation, wrist flexion, wrist pronation, thoracic external rotation and smaller shoulder flexion during reach and grasp task (p < 0.05). The significant differences between mild to moderate group and severe group were observed in total duration, durations of T1, T2, and T3 in reach and grasp task (p < 0.01). The severe group showed significant larger shoulder internal rotation during T2 (p < 0.05) and wrist flexion during T2, T3 (p < 0.05) than mild to moderate group. In range of motion during each task, shoulder abduction-adduction during T2 and T3, shoulder internal-external rotation during T2, elbow flexion-extension during T1 showed significant difference between two groups (p < 0.05). The severe group had significant larger total deviation angles in shoulder internal-external rotation and wrist extension-flexion during reach and grasp task (p < 0.05). Conclusion: This study suggests that post-stroke hemiplegic patients have an unique temporo-spatial and kinematic patterns during reach and grasp task, and the movement pattern may be related to affected upper limb severity. These results may be useful to interpret the motion of upper extremity in stroke patients.

Keywords: Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA), motion analysis, reach and grasp, stroke

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Authors: E. M. Rifqi Wilda Pradana, Bagus Bayu Prabowo, Meida Riski Pujiyati, Efraim Maykhel Hagana Ginting, Virgiawan Arya Hangga Reksa

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The VLF (Very Low Frequency) method is an electromagnetic method that uses low frequencies between 10-30 KHz which results in a fairly deep penetration. In this study, the VLF method was used for zonation of disaster-prone areas by identifying geological structures in the form of faults. Data acquisition was carried out in Trimulyo Region, Jetis District, Bantul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia with 8 measurement paths. This study uses wave transmitters from Japan and Australia to obtain Tilt and Elipt values that can be used to create RAE (Rapat Arus Ekuivalen or Current Density) sections that can be used to identify areas that are easily crossed by electric current. This section will indicate the existence of a geological structure in the form of faults in the study area which is characterized by a high RAE value. In data processing of VLF method, it is obtained Tilt vs Elliptical graph and Moving Average (MA) Tilt vs Moving Average (MA) Elipt graph of each path that shows a fluctuating pattern and does not show any intersection at all. Data processing uses Matlab software and obtained areas with low RAE values that are 0%-6% which shows medium with low conductivity and high resistivity and can be interpreted as sandstone, claystone, and tuff lithology which is part of the Semilir Formation. Whereas a high RAE value of 10% -16% which shows a medium with high conductivity and low resistivity can be interpreted as a fault zone filled with fluid. The existence of the fault zone is strengthened by the discovery of a normal fault on the surface with strike N550W and dip 630E at coordinates X= 433256 and Y= 9127722 so that the activities of residents in the zone such as housing, mining activities and other activities can be avoided to reduce the risk of natural disasters.

Keywords: current density, faults, very low frequency, zonation

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Authors: Sushil Kumar Singh, Kumar Rahul, Vivek Tewarson, Sarvesh Kumar, Shobhit Kumar

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Objective: Rheumatic mitral stenosis continues to be a major public health problem in developing countries. When the left atrium (LA) is unable to fill the left ventricle (LV) at normal LA pressures due to impaired relaxation and impaired compliance, diastolic dysfunction occurs. The assessment of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function and filling pressures is of clinical importance to identify underlying cardiac disease, its treatment, and to assess prognosis. 2D echocardiography can detect diastolic dysfunction with excellent sensitivity and minimal risk when compared to the gold standard of invasive pressure-volume measurements. Material and Method: This was a one-year study consisting of twenty-nine patients of isolated rheumatic severe mitral stenosis. Data was analyzed preoperative and post operative (at one month follow-up). Transthoracic 2D echocardiographic parameters of the diastolic function are transmitral flow, pulmonary venous flow, mitral annular tissue doppler, and color M-mode doppler. In our study, mitral valve orifice area, ejection fraction, deceleration time, E/A-wave, E/E’-wave, myocardial performance index of left ventricle (Tei index ), and Mitral inflow propagation velocity were included for echocardiographic evaluation. The statistical analysis was performed on SPSS Version 15.0 statistical analysis software. Result: Twenty-nine patients underwent successful closed mitral commissurotomy for isolated mitral stenosis. The outcome measures were observed pre-operatively and at one-month follow-up. The majority of patients were in NYHA grade III (69.0%) in the preoperative period, which improved to NYHA grade I (48.3%) after closed mitral commissurotomy. Post-surgery mitral valve area increased from 0.77 ± 0.13 to 2.32 ± 0.26 cm, ejection fraction increased from 61.38 ± 4.61 to 64.79 ± 3.22. There was a decrease in deceleration time from 231.55 ± 49.31 to 168.28 ± 14.30 ms, E/A ratio from 1.70 ± 0.54 from 0.89 ± 0.39, E/E’ ratio from 14.59 ± 3.34 to 8.86 ± 3.03. In addition, there was improvement in TIE index from 0.50 ± 0.03 to 0.39 ± 0.06 and mitral inflow propagation velocity from 47.28 ± 3.71 to 57.86 ± 3.19 cm/sec. In peri-operative and follow-up, there was no incidence of severe mitral regurgitation (MR). There was no thromboembolic incident and no mortality.

Keywords: closed mitral valvotomy, mitral stenosis, open mitral commissurotomy, balloon mitral valvotomy

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Authors: Min Ju Kim, Beom Jin Park, Deuk Jae Sung, Na Yeon Han, Kichoon Sim

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the significant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging factors of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) on the assessment of survival outcomes of neoadjuvant combined chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT) in patients with mid/low rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study of 63 patients with mid/low rectal cancer who underwent MR before and after CRT and patient consent was not required. Surgery performed within 4 weeks after CRT. The location of LPLNs was divided into following four groups; 1) common iliac, 2) external iliac, 3) obturator, and 4) internal iliac lymph nodes. The short and long axis diameters, numbers, shape (ovoid vs round), signal intensity (homogenous vs heterogenous), margin (smooth vs irregular), and diffusion-weighted restriction of LPLN were analyzed on pre- and post-CRT images. For treatment response using size, lymph node groups were defined as group 1) short axis diameter ≤ 5mm on both MR, group 2) > 5mm change into ≤ 5mm after CRT, and group 3) persistent size > 5mm before and after CRT. Clinical findings were also evaluated. The disease-free survival and overall survival rate were evaluated and the risk factors for survival outcomes were analyzed using cox regression analysis. Results: Patients in the group 3 (persistent size >5mm) showed significantly lower survival rates than the group 1 and 2 (Disease-free survival rates of 36.1% and 78.8, 88.8%, p < 0.001). The size response (group 1-3), multiplicity of LPLN, the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), patient’s age, T and N stage, vessel invasion, perineural invasion were significant factors affecting disease-free survival rate or overall survival rate using univariate analysis (p < 0.05). The persistent size (group 3) and multiplicity of LPLN were independent risk factors among MR imaging features influencing disease-free survival rate (HR = 10.087, p < 0.05; HR = 4.808, p < 0.05). Perineural invasion and T stage were shown as independent histologic risk factors (HR = 16.594, p < 0.05; HR = 15.891, p < 0.05). Conclusion: The persistent size greater than 5mm and multiplicity of LPLN on both pre- and post-MR after CRT were significant MR factors affecting survival outcomes in the patients with mid/low rectal cancer.

Keywords: rectal cancer, MRI, lymph node, combined chemoradiotherapy

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Authors: Mustapha Ouardouz, Mina Amharref, Abdessamed Bernoussi

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The future energy, for limited energy resources countries, goes through renewable energies (solar, wind etc.). The renewable energies constitute a major component of the energy strategy to cover a substantial part of the growing needs and contribute to environmental protection by replacing fossil fuels. Indeed, sustainable development involves the promotion of renewable energy and the preservation of the environment by the use of clean energy technologies to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and reducing the pressure exerted on the forest cover. So the impact studies, of the energy use on the environment and farm-related risks are necessary. For that, a global approach integrating all the various sectors involved in such project seems to be the best approach. In this paper we present an approach based on the multi criteria analysis and the realization of one pilot to achieve the development of an innovative geo-intelligent environmental platform. An implementation of this platform will collect, process, analyze and manage environmental data in connection with the nature of used energy in the studied region. As an application we consider a region in the north of Morocco characterized by intense agricultural and industrials activities and using diverse renewable energy. The strategic goals of this platform are; the decision support for better governance, improving the responsiveness of public and private companies connected by providing them in real time with reliable data, modeling and simulation possibilities of energy scenarios, the identification of socio-technical solutions to introduce renewable energies and estimate technical and implantable potential by socio-economic analyzes and the assessment of infrastructure for the region and the communities, the preservation and enhancement of natural resources for better citizenship governance through democratization of access to environmental information, the tool will also perform simulations integrating environmental impacts of natural disasters, particularly those linked to climate change. Indeed extreme cases such as floods, droughts and storms will be no longer rare and therefore should be integrated into such projects.

Keywords: renewable energies, decision aided tool, environment, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Lisa Bennett, Cynthia Walters, Cynthia Argani, Andy Satin, Geeta Sood, Kerri Huber, Lisa Grubb, Woodrow Noble, Melissa Eichelberger, Darlene Zinalabedini, Eric Ausby, Jeffrey Snyder, Kevin Kirchoff

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Background: Surgical site infections (SSIs) within the obstetric population pose a variety of complications, creating clinical and personal challenges for the new mother and her neonate during the postpartum period. Our journey to achieve compliance with the SSI core measure for cesarean sections revealed many opportunities to improve these outcomes. Objective: Achieve and sustain core measure compliance keeping surgical site infection rates below the national benchmark pooled mean of 1.8% in post-operative patients, who delivered via cesarean section at the Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center. Methods: A root cause analysis was performed and revealed several environmental, pharmacologic, and clinical practice opportunities for improvement. A multidisciplinary approach led by the OB Safety Nurse, OB Medical Director, and Infectious Disease Department resulted in the implementation of fourteen interventions over a twenty-month period. Interventions included: post-operative dressing changes, standardizing operating room attire, broadening pre-operative antibiotics, initiating vaginal preps, improving operating room terminal cleaning, testing air quality, and re-educating scrub technicians on technique. Results: Prior to the implementation of our interventions, the SSI quarterly rate in Obstetrics peaked at 6.10%. Although no single intervention resulted in dramatic improvement, after implementation of all fourteen interventions, the quarterly SSI rate has subsequently ranged from to 0.0% to 2.70%. Significance: Taking an introspective look at current practices can reveal opportunities for improvement which previously were not considered. Collectively the benefit of these interventions has shown a significant decrease in surgical site infection rates. The impact of this quality improvement project highlights the synergy created when members of the multidisciplinary team work in collaboration to improve patient safety, and achieve a high quality of care.

Keywords: cesarean section, surgical site infection, collaboration and teamwork, patient safety, quality improvement

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Authors: Mitia Ramarosaona, Sylvie Castagnet, Damien Halm, Henri-Alexandre Cayzac, Nicolas Dufaure, Philippe Papin

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In light of the ongoing energy transition, 'Infrastructure developments' for hydrogen transportation and storage raise studies on the materials employed for hyperbaric vessels. Type IV tanks represent the most mature choice for gaseous hydrogen storage at high pressure – 70MPa. These tanks are made of a composite shell and an internal hydrogen-exposed polymer liner. High pressure conditions lead to severe mechanical loading requiring high resistance. Liner is in contact with hydrogen and undergoes compression – decompression cycles during system filling and emptying. Stresses induced by this loading, coupled with hydrogen diffusion, were found to cause microstructural changes and degradation of mechanical behaviour after decompression phase in some studies on HDPE. These phenomena are similar to those observed in elastomeric components like sealing rings, which can affect permeability and lead to their failure. They may lead to a hydrogen leak, compromising security and tightness of the tank. While these phenomena have been identified in elastomers, they remain less addressed in thermoplastics and consequences post-decompression damages on mechanical behaviour and to the best of author's knowledge was not studied either. Different additives are also included in liner formulation to improve its behaviour. This study aimed to better understand damage micro-mechanisms in PA11s exposed to hydrogen compression-decompression cycles and understand if additives influence their resistance. Samples of pure, plasticized and impact-modified PA11s are exposed to 1, 3 and 8 pressure cycles including hydrogen saturation at 70MPa followed by severe 15-second decompression. After hydrogen exposure and significantly later than full desorption, the residual mechanical behaviour is characterized through impact and monotonic tensile tests, on plain and notched samples. Several techniques of microstructure and micro-nano damage characterization are carried out to assess whether changes in macroscopic properties are driven by microstructural changes in the crystalline structure (SAXS-WAXS acquisitions and SEM micrographs). Thanks to WAXS acquisition and microscopic observation, the effects due to additives and pressure consequences can be decorrelated. Pure PA11 and PA11 with a low percentage of additives show an increase in stress level at the first yielding point after hydrogen cycles. The amplitude of the stress increase is more important in formulation with additives because of changes in PA11 matrix behavior and environment created by additives actions. Plasticizer modifies chain mobility leading to microstructure changes while other additives, more ductile than PA11, is able to cavitate inside PA11 matrix when undergoing decompression. On plasticized formulation, plasticizer migration are suspected to enhance impact of hydrogen cycling on mechanical behaviour. Compared to the literature on HDPE and elastomers, no damages like cavitation or cracking could be evidenced from SAXS experiments on every PA11 formulation tested. In perspectives, on all formulation, experimental work is underway to confirm influence of residual pressure level after decompression on post-decompression damages level, the aim is to better understand the factors affecting the mechanical behavior of thermoplastics subject to mechanical solicitation from decompression in hydrogen tank liners, not mechanical behaviour of liner in hydrogen tanks directly.

Keywords: additives, hydrogen tank liner, microstructural analysis, PA11

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Authors: A. Y. Tsidulko, T. M. Pankova, E. V. Grigorieva

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High-grade gliomas are the most frequent and most aggressive brain tumors which are characterized by active invasion of tumor cells into the surrounding brain tissue, where the extracellular matrix (ECM) plays a crucial role. Disruption of ECM can be involved in anticancer drugs effectiveness, side-effects and also in tumor relapses. The anti-inflammatory agent dexamethasone is a common drug used during high-grade glioma treatment for alleviating cerebral edema. Although dexamethasone is widely used in the clinic, its effects on normal brain tissue ECM remain poorly investigated. It is known that proteoglycans (PGs) are a major component of the extracellular matrix in the central nervous system. In our work, we studied the effects of dexamethasone on the ECM proteoglycans (syndecan-1, glypican-1, perlecan, versican, brevican, NG2, decorin, biglican, lumican) using RT-PCR in the experimental animal model. It was shown that proteoglycans in rat brain have age-specific expression patterns. In early post-natal rat brain (8 days old rat pups) overall PGs expression was quite high and mainly expressed PGs were biglycan, decorin, and syndecan-1. The overall transcriptional activity of PGs in adult rat brain is 1.5-fold decreased compared to post-natal brain. The expression pattern was changed as well with biglycan, decorin, syndecan-1, glypican-1 and brevican becoming almost equally expressed. PGs expression patterns create a specific tissue microenvironment that differs in developing and adult brain. Dexamethasone regimen close to the one used in the clinic during high-grade glioma treatment significantly affects proteoglycans expression. It was shown that overall PGs transcription activity is 1.5-2-folds increased after dexamethasone treatment. The most up-regulated PGs were biglycan, decorin, and lumican. The PGs expression pattern in adult brain changed after treatment becoming quite close to the expression pattern in developing brain. It is known that microenvironment in developing tissues promotes cells proliferation while in adult tissues proliferation is usually suppressed. The changes occurring in the adult brain after dexamethasone treatment may lead to re-activation of cell proliferation due to signals from changed microenvironment. Taken together obtained data show that dexamethasone treatment significantly affects the normal brain ECM, creating the appropriate microenvironment for tumor cells proliferation and thus can reduce the effectiveness of anticancer treatment and promote tumor relapses. This work has been supported by a Russian Science Foundation (RSF Grant 16-15-10243)

Keywords: dexamthasone, extracellular matrix, glioma, proteoglycan

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 184